Posts Tagged ‘winning trades’

Trading Success, Take What the Market is Safely Offering

Friday, May 8th, 2009

Today is Friday, May 8th and the markets as of now, 9 am West Coast time are making a come back from earlier losses.

Today’s market action was interesting. We saw a gap opening up of about 8 points on the S&P, it pushed a little higher, formed a nice top and sold off, good and plenty. It moved back to the middle where it found support and later rallied to near session highs. That is when I stopped watching. I will look later tonight to see how it all finished for the day.

My trading went well, nice and smooth, hitting double daily goal, just at $1,000 with only one losing trade in about 1 hour. I think I put on 9 trades with a couple of split trades in there. That is what I like to see, but it all depends on me. I know that I can always do better and I strive to do that each day. Many of the stops that I take can be avoided and some can not. I don’t worry about the ones I can’t avoid, but only the ones that human error comes into play. I have rules and sometimes I break them, as we all do. When I stay as close to the rules as I can, it usually works out pretty well.

Today, I was short at the top for a split trade, got 1 point early and put myself in a no loss trade. The second half continued to work lower and all was well. I moved my stop down, but got a little distracted and got high ticked out. I was one tick too tight, still made 6 ticks on the trade, but that move kept on going. I had a tentative target of several points on the second half of the trade.

Often, traders can become frustrated when they don’t get the amount that they were looking for and start to abandon their trading plan. Here is where controlling your emotions is vital. You can get frustrated on a winning trade as well as a losing trade and self control needs to be called on. If you have in your mind that your trading goal can and will be met, it is going to happen by taking one trade at a time. If you look at the big picture, it can be overwhelming and that can throw you off. We are only targeting at a minimum, 2-3 points per day. Most often I double that, but I always have in my mind, that if I can get to 2-3 points and the price action is good, I can get to 4-5 points. I never think of hitting 5 points as my goal right away.  It’s always 2-3, and if things still look good, I can continue, often times with smaller contract size. This takes the pressure off of having the thought of giving back your hard earned points.

That is what I did today and I was happy with it. I had some frustration coming in when I got high ticked out.  I knew that the market was going to hit a bigger target, which I pointed out on the screen. I looked for a re-entry point, but there really was nothing that looked good.

The action on the way down was a little strange. Usually you have some resting points, a few small pivot points then a break. I did not see anything like that, so I had to stay out. It ended up dropping a lot more without a bounce and I chose to just wait it all out. After that move ran out of steam,I put on a few small moves on in the CHOP,  it worked out well.

After a large move up or down, you tend to get tradable formations for small moves. Some of those moves went farther and as I always say, that is just fine. I never cry about taking a small move if that is what I planned on ahead of time. If it goes for several points, no  problem. Some times I elect only to take all trades for 3 or 4 ticks no matter what.

I remember one day not long ago, I did that, I had like 40 winning trades in a row. I said that I was going to stop when I get my next loss, it never came.  It was a very large day for me. Other times I take  split trades or what I call a “T-2 setup”. While I am at it, I will explain the three the basic setups that I use.

The first is a “T-1 setup” which is a scalp trade of no less than 1/2 point but usually not more than 1 point to meet the definition. The next is a “T-2 setup”, which is a split trade where after the entry, the first half of the order comes off at around 1 point and the second half comes off where ever I feel that I can safely get the second target without getting too greedy. I have the second target usually preset at 2 points, but I move it to where ever I can get a larger fill. The third is what I call a “T-3 setup” and that is when I see a pyramid situation. I won’t go into what all that is but I think you may be able to figure it out.

If I see different market condition, I am ready for what the market can give me. Like I have said before, you cannot tell the market to give you what you want, you have to be willing to take what it will give you. So being flexible is very important. If you know how to scalp trade for small targets and hit those targets about 75-80% of the time and often a lot higher, then you have a base to build off of. When the conditions are right for RUNNERS, the T-2 is a great way to go to capture more of what the market is offering. When you have those days that you get long extended moves in one direction, the  T-3 can bring you windfall profits.

If you always keep your sights set on just getting your modest daily goal, when the opportunities present themselves for more, you will not have any hangups to hold you back from receiving them.   If the markets ever started to trade in a quit narrow range like it did some time ago, many S&P systems traders would get chopped to pieces. If it stayed like that for a while, many traders would be out of business.

The market is designed to make you fail and it will do everything in its power to make that happen. You need to ask yourself this question: if that is true, then what are you going to do about it?

http://www.screencast.com/t/en4uOjUTvh6          Today’s equity chart

Interesting Trading Lesson Today

Saturday, April 4th, 2009

Today is Friday, April 3rd and I had a good day, but not without a few problems.

I started out just fine. I almost had my daily goal in just a few minutes. But then I was not patient enough to wait just a minute more for a clear signal and sure enough, I got stopped out. That trade was going to put me over the top and capture my daily goal, about 15 minutes worth.

What happened after that is, I found myself in an up-trending market and was looking for a counter trend trade setup. This was the trend starting about 8:30 am W.C. time. I doubled up on a trade short 5+5 for two positions short and got stopped out with a 4 tick stop. Why I fought that trend up, I don’t know. This goes back to what I was commenting on earlier in the week. If you get a picture or idea in your mind that the market is going to do something and it is not co-operating with you, the problem is not in the market action, but with you, or me in this case.

This is why we all need to be humble and respect the markets. Trading success can be a great thing to give you confidence in your ability to put together winning trades, but it can also be an Achilles heel. Each and every day, you really need to keep an open mind to direction. This is what can happen to a lot of traders if they think they know the next move of the market. Let the market tell you and don’t be impatient. If the whole series of moves looks a little confusing, just let a little time go by. That is what I did today, when I was up to almost daily goal and slipped back just a little in the red.

I took a break and came back a little later and started nailing it. I came right back like I have done in the past to post some real nice gains for the day. I ended up taking it to two times daily goal or around $2,500 in equity, but it took me some time. I just put on mostly small trades, 1 point, 3 ticks and so on. I was just focusing on market timing. I took my trade size down to average 5 contracts, some smaller, a few bigger, but averaged around 5. With a 5 contract average I probably picked up a net after commission 10 points of profit to get my totals.

If I am having trouble, for whatever reason, I almost always go back to my bread and butter trading. Sometimes when you are targeting 2 or 3 points in a trade and the market is not giving it to you, change and be satisfied with 1 point here and 1 point there. It adds up pretty fast, if you keep stringing them along one after another. It counts just the same as a 3 point trade. Trading is not always easy and there are many unseen factors you could be battling, but try and keep it simple. My method is simple, but not easy. And there is a difference.

I have a short video of some of the last trades I took today. It is on a clean chart and I will show you some of my timing techniques while using trendlines. I could have captured a lot more points on a lot of these trades, but that was not even in my mind for the most part. I was concentrating on market timing. If I just get that part right, I know I can pick up the profit, it all adds up the same at the end of the day.

Have a great weekend!  Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/QfwuvFFWzMc            Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/e73y7VRj1                  Trendline trading lesson,  video 5 minutes

Success continues in trading the S&P’s

Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

Today is Tuesday March 31st and the trading success continues in the S&P’s.

I did not trade very much today after yesterday’s killing. I did not post in writing the stats for yesterday’s trading, only in the equity charts below, when I saw that there was a problem in getting the link hooked up properly. I fixed it, but I would like to say that yesterday’s trading produced over 40 winning trades with only one loss and three break even trades.  In fact, I had 50 plus pieces of profit, because I had multiple exits on a few trades. I posted over $9,000 dollars in profits, again with only 1 small loss. I traded a bit larger size and remembered saying to myself that if I post 1 more loss, that I was going to hang it up for the day. Like I said yesterday, it never came, so I kept on going.

Today, I had to balance things out a little. I only had 3 trades, the first was for a solid 2 points and the next couple, a little smaller, for $1,200 profit. I finished in less than 15 minutes and turned it off.

That is what you have to do some days, which I learned yesterday. It was not a bad thing, but I still have to maintain discipline even if it is going in my favor. Who is in control? The only saving point from yesterday was I made a deal with myself that I was going to stop trading when I took my next loss. So I really did not go past what I told myself.

That made me feel better. I should not be complaining when you have a day like yesterday. It does good things for your confidence. What can happen when you have big winning days, is that you let your guard down, get complacent and think this is too easy. If you ever get that attitude running through your mind, squash it quickly.

If you do not maintain discipline while trading, you are going to feel the pain. So remember, if you do the right things, the right things will happen to you. If you do not get greedy and overshoot your targets, and take what the market wants to give you, you will be rewarded. Not everyone is going to be able to maintain discipline for several hours. This is another reason to get your points and get out.

http://www.screencast.com/t/fB5xshXA            Today’s equity chart

Federal Reserve takes drastic step, Buys 300 Billion in Treasuries

Thursday, March 19th, 2009

Today is March 18th and the Federal Reserve took a big step to buy treasuries.

All I can say is, “What a day.”

I did not know that today was a Fed decision day. Shame on me. I usually check the economic calender for that. I don’t usually pay too much attention to news, because it always shows up in the price anyway, but that is one I always look for – because of the explosive moves following the news.

It usually happens at 11:15 am West Coast time and I was in a trade just before the announcement, with only 1 contract and then, boom, a 10 point move for the S&P in minutes. I re-entered for another move up after a consolidation for another 11 point move and again I only had on 1 contract. I kept re-entering long, and some short, to the very top of the market.

The S&P hit 800, which was the support at the purple trend line that I had talked about a couple of months ago. Support, when broken, usually then becomes resistance and the market traded right up into that resistance. After noticing that,  combined with the fact that now we had traded exactly to a 62% retacement from 873, the last recent high, to 666, the last recent low and back to 62% retracement at 800 and previous resistance, it made more sense that this would be a higher target for the market to trade up to. And it did – with me in it.

Once the top was reached I saw a good spot for a short and went with it, still trading very light, I think I had 2 contracts there. That was good for about 12 points to the downside. I must have had about 50 S&P points in all, which is about 25 times the amount I need to get my daily goal of 2 points, but that would be at 5 contracts. I traded very small once my equity started to get over $1,500, but it added up real fast for a finish to the day at $5,500 after commission. I took 33 trades total. Yes, that was a lot. But it still turned out better than 75% winning trades in about 3 hours. I have a couple of short video’s showing some of this, take a look below, at the end of the first one is where the Fed released the news and the market shot up.

I must say, that I was a little surprised that the Federal Reserve said that it was going to buy 300 billion in Treasury securities on the open market and 750 billion more in mortgage backed securities, bringing their direct involvement to 1.25 trillion. This is the first time they have done this since 1960. Does anyone know what that means? To me it looks like there was no one to buy the treasuries. China said last week they were very concerned with the U.S. debt market.

Do you know that the Federal Reserve is a private corporation for profit and is not a federal agency. It’s as much Federal as Federal Express. If you did not know that, all you have to do is Google it. The Federal Reserve is owned by a group of private banks from the U.S. and Europe. Basically, the government brokered out the job to a private banking corporation. I know this may be a shock for many, but people are reacting to the news like this is a good thing. This group is beyond reproach and no one has ever performed an audit on this group.

It is relative to the markets and to the economic equation because, while it is holding interest rates down for now, it will have a reverse effect in the near future. The Gold market did not like the news at all trading up nearly 6% for the day at 965 an ounce. The dollar did not like the news at all either, dropping against all major currencies. But the stock market did like it, or so it thought.

It is going to be good for the market in the short run – how long that is, I don’t know – but in the long run, it will be disastrous. There is so much money being floated out there right now that no one can keep up with it.

Here is another thing you may not have known. The total bail out so far is said to be 8-9 trillion dollars. That is a lot of money. Again, why is that relevant? It is going to cause inflation like nobody’s business. All I can say is be careful with your long term money. Let’s hope the market moves up over the next few months giving those who want to get out of their long term investments an opportunity.

Everyone has been trained in thinking, “it will come back, it always does”. This time could be different. Do your own research and think for yourself. Don’t listen to the experts and don’t even listen to me on these matters, but spend the time and check it out.

If you do a Google search using “total bail out so far”, you will get a few figures, but they are all up in the range I mentioned. It is nowhere near the figures we hear on the nightly news.

Sorry for the ramble, but it kind of ticks me off when I hear news like this. To those who are considering a career in trading and have the risk capital, the time to make money is now. The markets are moving nicely up and down and there is profit to be had for those who can wade their way through the noise.

http://www.screencast.com/t/FifEKWgjVXr               Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/u9xVvzQlpfW             Some of today’s live trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/kTfMA2×13w              Some of today’s live trades

Tough start, strong finish

Thursday, February 26th, 2009

Today is February 25th and today’s trading ended great. But boy I had a hard time getting started.

I should have known better and taken some of my own advice from the day before. If you let your guard down, you can get smacked around pretty easy from the markets.

I was sick last night and could not sleep, up all night and feeling crummy. That was my cue to take it easy, but I did not and payed for it in the early going. I was not focused, did not have patience and thought I could take the trades anyway. Well, that goes to show you, if you are not 100%, it is better to wait until you are or just don’t trade. I did neither but wished I had. It was a struggle. What made it even worse was I increased my size and so, consequently, my losses. I had been stuck on trading 5 contracts or less for a while and said to myself that today I was going to increase it.

After saying all of that, I turned things around after getting settled, but I hit my daily loss limit right in the face. I was down to my last trade for the day and needed it to be right. Fortunately, it was and I did not look back after that. I had something like 16 out of 17 winning trades after that and my equity went straight up.

As I was getting into the green, I at times started to pull back in trade size and especially at the end of the day (see chart below). When you are on a streak you want to remain careful. The reason being, I know that it is again very easy to let your guard down and get sloppy. I had done enough of that in the morning and was extra careful not to take a big draw down after doing well.

That is what happens so many times to traders, they have some nice trades and get ahead, let their guard down and then get slammed. Your biggest losses usually come after you have had your biggest gains, so be careful. Before you begin the trading day, you need to go over all the trends and different time frames to see where you are in the overall picture. Pre-market preparation is imperative.  More to come later. Have a great day !

 

http://www.screencast.com/t/pjRP3XdUAM5   Live Segment from today

http://www.screencast.com/t/IlD9XkG2              Screen Shot of a few trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/aR5EpglS               The days equity chart

Keeping it simple, in a difficult environment

Monday, November 3rd, 2008

As I stated in my last post, you will see the same patterns every day, up and down. I am capturing small winning trades every day with positive results. You need to be able to open your mind up to the possibilities of taking trades in the down direction as well as the upside. We do not care in what direction the market moves, but only that is does.

It sure is doing that these days with some very large moves. Sometimes I catch these and other times its just a smaller move. The best part about my method is that there are many places and times to be able to get in. There are a lot of great signals in the early morning open. The first 30 minutes of the day is some of the best trading although it’s really good for most of the day, but it can be a little slow during the New York lunch time, 11 am to 1 pm eastern standard time (9 am to 11 am west coast time).

Look again at a few early morning trades I have posted under this article. Also, I have some nice screen shots of a classic trading chart pattern setup that I look for. There are many great trading chart patterns to look for and some of these will include “Flags, Pennants, Wedges, Triangles, Channels, Head & Shoulders” and more. You can learn to trade all of these with no indicators, but with just trendlines, as in the examples I have below. Learning to trade without indicators is really a great skill and I highly recomend people interested in trading take the time to explore it. I have all of this broken down in the training section of my website. For the time being, I will be posting some of this training on my blog. This is not meant to be a complete explanation, but just a small sample to give you an idea of what you can learn.

When trading futures as I do, you don’t have to trade all day because of the leverage involved. The idea is finding patterns that happen over and over and being able to capture a small piece of that move. The key is finding patterns that consistently repeat themselves so you can take advantage of them by positioning yourself in the right spot where small mini panics take place. I have said that before but it is key in understanding how the market works.

A basic way to think of this is, “Support & Resistance”.  Resistance is where there is a barrier where prices seem not able to advance. This is because there are no more buyers at that price and selling pressure ensues to take prices down brought on by profit taking. My method is such that we can easily spot where those turning points are. One of my custom indicators is set up so that a simple change in color more easily shows you that a shift in momentum is taking place. This is just a tool to help you see what is already present in price action. Just remember that “Price always rules”.

Tommorrow I will discuss Support and take it from there.

Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/F3AdFKR1sE

http://www.screencast.com/t/HjUf8PKeEdI