Posts Tagged ‘turning points’

Gold & Silver Hit 31 Year Highs

Thursday, April 21st, 2011

Today, April 21st 2011, we saw Gold & Silver hit 31 years highs with amazing demand for the metals. Just since January, Silver had pulled back from 31 to 27 per oz, where it took on another massive move higher, to now almost 47 in less than 4 months.

If you compare the high in Silver to the Highs seen in the early 80’s where the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the Silver market, the metal would have to move up to, I believe, $140 an oz just to be at par with where it was back then, because of inflation.

If you ask me, Silver and Gold are just getting started, even though they have been in a long term bull move for more than 10 years. Both of those metals are a very good insurance policy against a paper dollar that has seen its purchasing power dwindle year after year, decade after decade.

Below is today’s turning points in the small T-2 chart for Sniper Day Trading. Most of the days turning points are seen, but there were some very good trades before that not shown on the screen shot.

The Silver market is huge, with contract size being at 5,000 oz, a 1 dollar more in the metal represents $5,000 dollars. With today’s move, over 2 dollars from the previous open, you have a basic windfall for many.

Looking at it another way, scalp trading the metal for .10 to .20 cent moves is $500 – $1,000 dollars per trade. It will work the same against you if you are wrong, so be sure you know what is going on and are well capitalized and trading a precision trading method.

My trading method works the same with Silver as it does with the S&P.  Today’s moves are only an example of what has been happening for months. The moves are very much in line with the trading method and very predictable when seen through the eyes of a Sniper.

Trading this market, you need to be a Sniper, picking the exact area of interest as price gets ready to move out. I have those area’s circles and identified above. Click on the chart and you will see the turning points here just the same way you see them in the S&P.

The Gold and Oil market are two other markets with great interest and plenty of emotion backing them.

The S&P did trade today, but I took the day off. There was no movement, and that I am sure could have frustrated many a trader. It does not pay to try and trade a market that has virtually no trading range at all.

The market will still be here next week and we will again see life coming back into the index’s. Until then, lay low and safe.

Tomorrow is Good Friday and I believe shortened trading session? Be sure you know. I would already know that, but I don’t plan to trade, so don’t need to know . The point, check if you are going to trade. It is no fun seeing the market close on you with contracts still on board, now having to hold over the weekend. I did that once, and only once.

Good Trading !

Major Index’s move to New Highs

Wednesday, January 12th, 2011

Today is Wednesday January 12th, as we saw the Dow Index +83 points and the S&P emini futures +12.

The volume came early on and very late in the session. From 8:30 to 12:30 West Coast, the market went to sleep. That was 4 hours of nothing. It can be hard to trade with no volume and movement as I saw today.

I have gotten off to a slow start this year, with a few points gain on Monday and 1 point gain yesterday. Both of those days I was only in the market a few minutes combined. I did not have the time to trade and was able to slip in a few trades. Today I had more time but hit that slow patch in the market, that is just how it goes. I was down about 1.50 points with a few small losses in the S&P, but decided to take a trade out of the Nasdaq Market. I don’t usually switch markets, but did today and hit a piece of that late market move for a few points.  I show it in the U-Tube video below towards the very end.

The second video under that is from Monday’s sessions which just shows more of the same, turning points and continuation entries.  I or any trader does not have to trade all of these area’s, but just a few will do and often times, just one to make a nice daily return. It is not to hard, but using good judgment and the method in full which is never really talked about, can help you get that done.  Being successful at day trading is a lot harder than most people make it, because they are acting from emotions. Having a solid method that looks to price structure, support and resistance in a very unique way and the nature momentum of the market to help get this done is key. The trade indicators are only a reflection of all of these things just mentioned. When you have both, it can be a powerful combination.

Monday’s Session

Good Trading to all !

Day Trading Indicators

Thursday, January 6th, 2011

Today is Wednesday and the third day of trading on Wall Street for the year, as the Dow was up 31 and the S&P +6.

This market does not want to go down as it popped up after gaping lower on the open. A welcomed sign to all

Tomorrow is the fourth day in a 5 day window as it relates to the January Effect. If the first 5 days are up strongly, it usually spills into a strong year for stocks. Better yet, if the whole month of January is strong, that spills over into a positive year for stocks to the tune of 78% of the time, or something close to that if my memory serves me. Lets watch Thursday and Friday to see how we close out the week. I will also report on the sentiment changes if any tomorrow or in Fridays post. They have been strong as small investors are heavily invested in this market with the public coming in with  Bullish readings of 57-58 %, typically a very high reading.

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Tuesday and Wednesdays S&P emini futures market, with Wednesday being on top.

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Let me shift gears here for a moment. I will start my trading likely this coming Monday, but have done some recent U-Tube Video’s of this weeks price movements as it relates to in part to my trading method. Just a note on that as I will post here the last two I did from yesterday and today. It points out, “Turning Points” as I call them and continuation spots along the way as it relates. These are identified by some custom modified indicators I use to help determine these spots. This is done in an attempt to show those that look on, that there is something to this that can be useful to there trading in some fashion. I do need to say though, the trade indicators are not the trading method and is only a reflection of what is happening to the price.

I teach how to read the price and trade it first. I know I have written about this before, but it bears repeating when I post video’s as such. Their is a solid reason to enter all of these trade area’s as I have them marked as per the trade method, NOT THE INDICATORS.  The thing about it is, that they are in the same spot. Which came first, you know the saying, but this time it is talking about the stock market. Is the indicator before the price or is the price before the indicators?  I think you know the answer to that, and you are right. Price is always first and those who know how to trade the price apart from indicators will likely do better. If you have both and you can trust them to give you insight into the next move of the market, that is all you need.

Traders are usually very visual, but their is a lot more to the trading screen than meets the eye. Their are other ways to look at things, and they are very different than reading candle stick charts and such. Many traders like this form of analysis and I won’t attempt to shoot that down, but that is not what I do as I read the charts apart from indicators.

I mainly trade off of tick charts, attempting to scalp trade 2-4 points a day on the S&P 500 emini futures market. Each point represents $50 dollars per contract traded x the number of contracts can equal a nice sum for a session. Trading three contracts, and landing 3 points, is $450 for the session, with each point being $150 dollars. The minimum margin to day trade the S&P is roughly 1200 per contract assuming you open and close all contracts within the same session.

Trading boils down to good timing. With it, you get in with little draw down as the trade moves in your favor. Knowing when to do that is key and is what traders across the globe struggle with. I can say, their is a way to do that and do it with some degree of consistency. Support and Resistance combined with momentum can lead you to hitting these Sniper Spot area’s. Small windows of opportunity, come and then go. If you are able to hit the hole so to speak, picking up a few points is not that hard to do. Its all about knowing. If you know, you can do it. Does it take work to learn, yes. But what comes to us, that is so rewarding, without work and sacrifice. With it, is the opportunity to expand your empire if you so choose.

I believe, we do have the power to overcome any barrier if we think we can, but you need to know and have a way to get that done. Just thinking it so will not complete the job.

I know their may be those searching for answers to their trading problems and it could be you need a solid trade method, based on trading the price and what it represents first, then any trading indicators to help confirm your findings. This gives you the best of both worlds and is what I do when trading the Sniper Day Trading Method. I don’t want to sound like a commercial, but that is how it is and don’t know of how else to put it. I have helped many traders get over the hump and turn the corner to profitability. If you have questions please feel free to ask. I don’t mind to share some additional info.

Always wishing my readers the very best;

First Trading Day of 2011

Monday, January 3rd, 2011

Today is January 3rd, 2011 and what a way to start off the year, with the Dow up 93 points and the S&P +12 to close at 1265.50.

Well, I would have to say I was wrong in my call for last weeks high as the high for this move in the daily markets. Today we did move out over that and closed above the 1260 number by 5 S&P points. This market is being very stubborn and does not yet want to go down. I have been looking into who is buying and pushing this market up and it seems to be individual companies with stock buy backs and foreign investment. Institutions have been selling on the way up in this bull run. The public has thought this market to be bullish and has remained that way since just before Thanksgiving. This is pretty much the longest run against market sentiment that I can remember in 20 years.

Some have suggested that the Fed has been buying up the market to help push it into a recovery area. As more people feel better about the stock market, they tend to spend more and feel better about tomorrow. There seems to be strong evidence of this, but I don’t think anyone could prove it outright. This could account for the over exuberance that this market has continued to show.

I can handle being wrong on this one, as a rising stock market is better for most people and few would argue how it got their?  I could only be wrong for a day or I could be wrong on this one altogether if this market continues to rise, but we shall see.

Looking to the short term direction of the market, it is hard to get this wrong as we often get multiple chances to get it right in the course of a day. Below I have a U-Tube Video I did for today’s market with the low risk continuation area’s marked as well as the turning points of the day. I have not started up my trading for the new year, but plan to either late in the week of this coming Monday. The video below.

This is the smallest chart I usually use unless the volume is extremely slow, but I do use other larger charts to help see the bigger picture.  The main goal for me is to capture between 2-4 points per session when I am trading. You don’t need to hit all of these signals to scalp trade your way to this small modest goal. Just one or two of them would do.

As I mention so often, the indicators are not the trading method, but it is consistent with it. This is the best of both worlds, because you have a reason planned out in advance as to when certain conditions exist, you will know exactly where to get in and out.  I do like to sell into strength if I see what I am looking for, that gives me additional confidence to wait for the move to complete. When trading multiple contracts, I often times will lighten up and sell some into the first point or so, sometimes it is more, but it just depends on the price action.

Showing how these indicators line up with the action area’s is a good visual to help interested traders see that there is something to this. It also is nice to be able to lean on these indicators at times when the price action is not as clear as it could be, so again, it can help. Their is more on the charts that I can’t show, but some is better than non.

If anyone has questions or wants to know more, just send me an email and I will be more than happy to fill in the blanks with any questions you might have. This is a new year and a good time to start fresh. If you just have questions about trading and maybe your style or method, I may be able to give you some advise if you like. If you are interested in learning the full trading method, I am here to help with that too.

In any case, be diligent about your trading plans for the new year. Find what works for you and commit yourself to it. Find a way to overcome your trading errors. Being honest with yourself is a good place to start. That way, you will know how to adjust yourself. Identify what is holding you back and try and find solutions. There is a way, if you have the will to find it.

I wish everyone the very best with New Year, in all areas.  Vince !

Market momentum down, but looking for support

Monday, August 23rd, 2010

Today is August 23rd and we saw the markets holding on with only modest losses as the S&P dropped -4.75 points.

I think tomorrow will be a pretty important trading day and will be looking for the market to hold on. This is not a far gone conclusion, but this is what I would be looking for. If we see big selling and close that way, we will be seeing other factors come into play. Currently the daily and hourly momentum is clearly down. Support will have to make itself clear or the markets momentum will take over and we will drop.

After Tuesdays session, a new weekly poll from the Investment Newsletter Writers will come out for Wednesdays market. The negative sentiment will likely have a reverse effect on future market direction. So, the key is for the market to hold on, without any major damage, but we will see.

Below, I have a chart of today’s first 90 minutes showing the turning points during that time. There are only a few trades and they were all pretty clear. If all the trades were taken, 3 would have been big winners with one small loss. This is only based on the trade indicators. I won’t say if I would have taken all of these trades but I will say that I really liked the first one and the last one.

One would only have to capture a few points from one of these trades to make a nice daily goal. The chart below is a tick chart and the smallest size of which I use on most trading days.

Still laying low on personal trading and may be ready to get back into it by this coming Monday. I am enjoying the time off, as it will help me recharge myself for the many coming months of good volatility, that’s the plan anyway.

Slow Summer Trading Day

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

Today is Wednesday August 18th, 2010 and the markets squeezed out a small gains on the  day with Dow up +10 and the S&P +2 points.

I took a few days off this week as you may have noticed. All is well, but just took a break from trading and writing as summer will soon be over.

The trading day ended up slightly as the market sold off near the close of the session. In a nutshell, we did get that bounce I had talked about last Thursday. I said that we should see a pretty good bounce up on Friday or Monday. It did not come on either of those days but on Tuesday where we saw a very nice advance across the board. The previous low should hold in my estimation at this point, but we will see if  Thursdays market has a retest coming. With the late sell off, that is what it looks like.

I could see the market trading to the 1080 area early in the session, where we should find support around there and try and mount another rally. Currently the S&P is around 1087. The S&P market should stay above 1075 and if 1068 is broken, more heavy selling could come in quickly.

The market has big overhead resistance around 1118. If it can get over that number give or take, much higher prices could come in, but that is the big barrier right now and pretty far off.  Also, it will be interesting to see how the Investors Intelligence market sentiment changed today as I won’t be able to see it until this time tomorrow, but will report any changes.

That’s it for now. I have a simple tick chart of the S&P emini futures below showing the early morning turning points as per my trading method. This is just as far as the indicators are concerned. We teach how to trade the price and use the indicators to confirm. Simple but effective. Until tomorrow, Good Trading.  Vince

Looking for S&P 1010 on Monday’s Open

Saturday, July 24th, 2010

This post is for Fridays action, July 23rd where we saw another 100 point + day on the Dow and an equivalent move in the S&P futures.

The market did put in another triple digit day on the Industrials as the market kicked in a confirmed move over the 1090 S&P futures area I had mentioned last week. Currently we are at 1101 and closed at the very high of the day. That is exactly what I was expecting as I will show you in the chart below. Before I get into that, the sentiment numbers did come out this week and even though the market had come off its highs, the numbers did back up a few % to currently 35%. That is a still a very good number and it will likely only come off back to the middle of the market sentiment range, by a rally. A number of 35% is actually a rally signal number. Last week we were at 32% in the face of over a 5% rally in the market. The number actually dropped, which is a  little usual.

The numbers I am talking about is the market newsletter writers that put out weekly information on the direction of the stock market and individual issues. These guys are usually trend followers and almost always get it wrong when a market extreme is reached. We are coming off just such an extreme, whereby you usually see a reaction of that extreme in the opposite direction. I have literally seen about 100 of these signals generated and they are very consistent and reliable. You will see on average 3 to 5 signals over the course of a year and when you multiple that by over 25 years, you get to around 100. I can’t imagine, this one is different.

This is for the longer term picture and I will not be overly concerned by this signal going forward. I am looking right now only for a short term target that I am almost certain will be met. More information below will clear that up.

So, I am expecting a short term target of 1010 on the open or even in the night trading starting Sunday after 3:30 West Coast. The target of 1010 is a short term number I see the market trading up to, on its way to higher prices. We can certainly back off once we get to the next short term target I just mentioned, but I feel it will be short lived.

So, overall, I think the market will trade higher, but may have some pull backs along the way. I posted a new video on U-Tube and will put it in this post at the bottom. It is a 30 minute bar chart of the S&P Emini futures with the night trading taken out of it, so you see the gaps from the previous days if there are any. This view is in a trending model, T-2, and will show you all the turning points since April, about 4 months.

We just went positive two days ago with a 200 point advance in the Dow, followed by a 100+ points behind it. There is about 70-80 points on the Dow and 9 point on the S&P before my short term target is reached as already mentioned.

On Friday, I was able to trade while I was resting from the previous days outing up the Columbia River. What a ride. We had a 40 foot Jet Boat all to ourselves (wife and son), with a captain and deck hand. On the way back down the river, he must have been going at least 50-55 mph, which is fast for such a large boat. I know I am off topic, but we went inside of a giant box with a large ship next to us, and it raised the water level 75 – 100  feet, so we could continue up the river. Wow, that was strange and very different. Never new they had that kind of thing. OK, back to the market.

In Fridays trading I was able to hold through a 10 point advance in the afternoon session and closed out 5 contracts right at the top and doing something I don’t normally do, am holding one contract over to get to the 1010 target area I am looking for, either in Sundays pre-market or early on Monday mornings open.

Below is a screen shot just before the close on the S&P emini’s showing my 1 contract position hold over, of which was from the add on contract I intended to hold over, with 4 points of active profit still in it. Below that is the U-Tube video showing the turning points on a 30 minute chart or the S&P emini’s, no after hours trading.

If anyone has questions, or wants more information on what I do, or wants to ask advise on what you are currently doing, I will be more than happy to give you my opinion to better help you reach your goals. My desire is help traders, period. If you need help, ask and we will go from there.

Best Regards to all my readers and followers,

Today’s Turning Points in the Sell Off

Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

Today is Tuesday, June 29th and did not get the rally but the sell off as the Index’s drop across the board.

The Dow dropped 266 and the S&P over 30 points as we closed near the lows of the day. Yesterday I was expecting a rally and it did not happen. We put in an inside day which generally will cause the market to move big once either end of the range is broken. I pointed out that if 1066 got broken, then we will sell off, but should stay above 1042. We pushed the limit on the lower end going through that level briefly and closing right on top of it in the cash S&P and slightly below it in the futures. I will give the market a little wiggle room here and point out, if we get more of this selling tomorrow it should only feed on itself for some time.

The glimmer of hope is that we are flirting with a buy signal on the sentiment survey that I follow. With today’s sell off, it could drop the numbers into an extreme position, but won’t know that until tomorrow. If there is a change worth noting, I will put up a short blog post noting that early in the day. If there is no signal change, I will skip it and post the numbers in the evening.

No trading for me today as I am taking a break for a while. It would have been a good day to trade, but having the ability to not trade is just one more discipline I get to develop.

I do have a video below of the turning points as identified just by a couple of my indicators. Trading is a lot more involved than excellent indicators, but they can help. We teach and follow price movement apart from indicators. I know I have said that many times, but it can’t help be repeated. If you know how to read the price, you can write your own ticket. You will have insight into which trades to take and why. I would not be taking all the trades as identified below, but there is nothing wrong with any of the entries. The smaller time frame complements this chart and makes it easier to get in at these turning points. I can show more data with this larger chart, something different than I usually show.

Good Trading and be safe !

Market Update and Recap of Next Market Move

Sunday, June 20th, 2010

Vince here from Sniper Day Trading, showing an extra week end post for Friday’s session on the S&P emini’s.

I have a recap of Fridays session on the S&P’s narrow range (only 8 points) and comments on the pre-market move of the S&P futures. There seems to be a very good move under way which should carry forward into Mondays session and push the market index’s up after the open.

Just one note on the price range we are currently hitting. This is now at a very minimum, satisfied the price objective that I called for on June 9ths blog post. Over a week ago while the market had closed the session at 1051.25 I said that we were at a breaking point and was leaning for a move to the upside but was cautious of a break to new lows. With a break of the days highs at 1073 (new contract price) we will quickly be on our way to a minimum of 1122 to 1142 with taking 1132 as the middle average. Currently we are at 1126.75 in the pre-market move Sunday afternoon.

From the days close 6 trading sessions ago at 1051 to today’s price of 1126 that is a 75 S&P point move. When you take it from the break out which really confirmed the move 5 trading days ago, that is still a 54 point trading move. That move was the easy and obvious to me and is what I would be looking at if trading a small tick chart just the same. When you know how to trade small time frames, you can trade any time frame and any trading instrument. In monitoring my own calls for large moves like this, I have done amazing well. I don’t remember one big turning point that was a clear miss on these daily time frames.

I did get a little confused with the move after this one, which I did mention last week, but that did not change the direction or call of this current move. The sentiment numbers are very close to a large buy signal. The market can pull back into the S&P 1080 area and should hold somewhere in there, but if it breaks 1040 that is going to produce selling of great proportion. So, may be I should not project that far out and just focus now on the next move, which would be a move back down to the area mentioned 1080.

I would not be surprised to see a big reversal of this move up here on Mondays session. I have checked the individual Dow charts and it does look like there is resistance overhead at least for the short run. It could run up to the higher end of the range 1142 but we will just have to wait and see.  My only point right now is be on the look out for a reversal today or tomorrow back down. We should get one producing a large retracement back. I will keep you undated on what I think going forward.

Video of the small trading range on Friday’s S&P futures

Trading Indicators – Part Three

Wednesday, March 17th, 2010

Today is Wednesday and the S&P 500 had some legs to yesterdays run up.

The Dow Jones finally caught up to the other index’s today. Initially it saw resistance, which can be expected, but it came back and moved up 25 points over its January highs, 10,767 and then sold off. This is so very typical.  Now that the Dow reached what the other index’s did a week ago, it is going to be pretty interesting how it reacts from here.

Last weeks sentiment number were up a bit +3% to 45% bullish. That is pretty much what one can expect after coming off an extreme reading like we had a couple of weeks ago and currently is a neutral reading.  Once it reaches an extreme on the bullish side, you can look to lighten the load as more significant selling will come in. The thing is, we at this time don’t know how far it is going to advance.

With oil prices increasing that is sending a message to America that the economy is strengthening, at least from where it was before. I have been hearing things on the street about commodity prices in general. It is very possible that we will see large run ups in commodity prices in the coming months.  That is not usually how it goes for a struggling economy. My hope is that everything keeps moving along and any significant drop is put off until a later time, like next year or after, would be nice. Lets give America a break, not “break them”.

This patch work is only going to be temporary, but I guess I welcome it, for everyone’s sake. If you want to see the real state of the economy, go to my website front page and I have a link on the right side which shows an ongoing tally of the National Debt, but under that is a warning. “Expanded View” – “Click here at your own risk”.  I give the warning for real, its not a joke, because if you look at all the spinning numbers and totals associated with the items just on that one page, you will be filled with many emotions, I will just leave it at that. The bottom line is the real shocker, well, all of it really is, but if you would rather not know, “Don’t look under that Link“.

The last couple of days I have been showing a limited view of one of the trading screens I use during the day. I call this my T-2 Trading Screen. This screen is showing just one chart of two that I have up and is designed to find the turning points of the day, but give you a zoomed in view of it, so a trader is able to zero in on the exact point the balance of power has shifted.

The trading indicators I use help to show just that, as you have seen over the last two days. I will show yet another day today for those who think it is luck, that the turns are shown with such precision, almost magical. When the market is on the move, this is so very typical. When it is not (on the move) and we seem to be range bound, up and down, small or choppy moves with no follow through, all one has to do is just trade out of my T-1 trade screen for scalp trades of 1 point or more at a time. This part is just that simple. The market is moving, trade the T-2 for larger trending moves, with the possibility of pyramiding your position for maximum gain. When it seems range bound, trade out of the T-1 screen and take what the market gives you. If you get it wrong and are trading out of the T-2 screen and the market is not trending, you can still make a nice return trading the turning points, its just that they do not have extended moves to them, which will limit your total point return on that one trade. If you scale out of some of your position, you will always make a profit even if the market comes back against you. At some point, you will see that taking trades out of the other screen may be better and a “All in All out approach” would be best. Either way, it comes out in your favor.

Take another look below at the short video and see for yourself if you think you can place an order in the circled area’s I call turning points. I have placed a number above those turning point area’s which represents the amount of time you have once a turning point area takes hold, to when it moves out of the circle in the desired direction. The circle represents your window of opportunity and the amount of time you have to make a decision. You will see 3, 2, 5, 1, and so on. Again, ask yourself, do you think you can place an order to buy or sell inside of that window and take advantage of the trend. Your exit can come from several different way, with a couple of them shown. The first way could be a price bar color change and the next could be a reverse signal as indicated on the screen. There are a three other ways which are not shown, all similar in results, but non related, still all very visual and easy to interpret.

With all of that said, trading takes practice and your confidence needs to be high. If you give yourself the tools it takes to build that confidence, you can put it together. If your tools are shaky and inconsistent, you really don’t have much.

Just think what you could do in $ returns if you can buy and sell in the circled turning points area as  indicated in the video’s. This will always work because this is a reflection of price action trading. I teach how to get the exact same turning points without the trading indicators and it matches perfectly. If you have questions, email me, I will be happy to answer them.