Today is November 29th, 2011 and I have today’s first hour turning points mapped out as shown below in the S&P emini futures.
The market had a little follow through from yesterdays huge run up in the opening hours of the session. Things settled down with some selling pressure coming in later in the day.
Tomorrow, I will do a bigger report on where the daily market may be headed and how much upside is left in this market, but for now will just post a screen shot of today’s first hour turning points as mentioned above.
Tuesday October 4th, 2011; Hello this is Vince and want to give a quick up date on today’s action. I traded for around 1 hour, picked up a modest daily goal and went deer hunting. I did not bag a deer yet this season, but I still have about 2 weeks.
We did have that market reversal I quietly was expecting, today Tuesday and not yesterday, but did give out a number that the S&P should stay above, 1120 and it broke it in yesterdays market. I did mention yesterday that the Dow should then stay above 10,600 and can see that we did do that today nicely, on a strong close.
Let me keep this part short as I have other good things to share in today’s post as described yesterday. Many think that this market is going to crack and break down. I personally don’t think it is going to happen now. It will come, but just don’t think it is going to come now, when most expect it. The negativity is so thick, I can feel it in the financial airwaves and I don’t even have cable TV, (by choice). Things don’t happen when everyone is expecting them to happen and everyone expects this market to crash. We will see in the days ahead.
Above, I have a still shot of the day’s trades I took and below that, a video of the whole days turning points and some of the continuation points. These are just the raw signals and some are better than others. Certainly all of of them are not meant to be traded, as all you really need is a couple of trades to come out nicely most days. The key is keeping your gains and adding to them. Said many times, the trading signals are not the method, but only a nice reflection of it. The reasoning and rational behind it is where the power to act comes from and we all know the adage, “Knowledge is Power”. It is true in this case as well.
Let me shift gears into what I will be covering in the days and even weeks to come. It is something that traders need so badly and intently that it can not be overlooked. Feeding the mind of traders is just as important as feeding the stomach of a trader. Without food, you will die, I don’t need to convince anyone of that, but the same is true in trading. If you don’t feed your mind with the right mental food and thoughts, your account will die, and that is just as real as the other example given.
Let me first lay some ground work to base some of this on. Psychology is a topic that is often talked about in many fields and it is one that can not be overlooked by traders especially.
The word psychology comes from from the Greek word “psyche”, translated, soul and so the term can be described as the study of the soul.
Man has been created in three parts, the body, the soul and the spirit. We will be discussing the soul and which is also made up of three parts. One of these parts is the emotion as it is the emotion that we love, desire, hate, and have joy or sorrow. Another part of the soul is the mind where we have thoughts, considerations, idea’s and concepts. The third part of the soul is the will, through which we make decisions. Our joy or sorrow is something of the emotion.
When we consider or reason, we are using the mind and when we make a decision to do a certain thing, the will is in operation. The mind, the will and the emotions then are the three parts of the soul. By the mind we think, by the will we choose, and by the emotions we like or dislike, love or hate.
The above will lay a ground work for us to best lay a foundation to build upon. It is in understanding who we are and why we do what we do that we can uncover our weaknesses and strengths. In uncovering our weakness, we can then take responsibility for our trades and not lend to the theory that the markets are out to get us. That is flawed thinking and can be a simple example of how we get what we most often are afraid of.
In uncovering something as so simple as our thoughts and taking them captive, we have to face ourselves and do something about those flawed thoughts. Left untouched, it can wreck havoc on our ability to reach our goals.
So many traders can not understand themselves and why they do what they do, only to see what they have done after the dust settles in horror.
When traders pull stops because they can not accept the fact that they might be wrong, there are underlying problems in his or her thinking that is at the root of those actions. Again, left untouched a trader will only see looses in his account as an end result and have no idea why.
To often, traders give up there current trading method, thinking that the method is flawed, instead of looking within themselves as described above.
This is what I want to uncover in laying the ground work above. Some may not agree with my assessments of what we are made up of and my description of the soul and that is OK. It is not the spirit I will be discussing, but the soul, THE MIND, THE WILL, THE EMOTIONS.
My source for all the above is the Bible as all of what I said is back up with numerous scriptures. I did not give them as a specific references, but if anyone wants them I can provide that.
As we continue to study this topic and come up with practical applications on what we can do as traders to improve our overall performances, it will become clear that this is an area that is overlooked and in great need of discussion and training.
More to come in the next sessions. Trade well, trade committed. Vince
Today is Monday September 26th, 2011 and want to do a follow up to the market calls recently made.
First let me post my trades from today and will keep my comments short unlike Friday’s post.
I have been getting up a little later and so missing the early parts of the sessions recently, but that is not always bad. It gives a little insight into what is happening and what may continue to happen as things move along.
I took 4 trades total, 2 were for pretty good gains, with one for a small loss and one nearly flat. An average day with only 45 minutes invested trading and a little better than 50 minutes in follow the market. From that stand point a perfect day.
I gave myself a B- grade as my second trade had poor placement but good overall direction still. The short did not produce within the time it should have and just exited nearly flat. I added on 1 and that one had -1 tick. The last long, I did not get filled at the high tick and exited at my increased stop, close but no cigar. I may have been a little harsh on my grade, but I can’t change that now. An easy day overall with little struggle.
The afternoon session I did live video’s for my group and called out several entries on the way to a 1155 target that I was talking about in my Friday post and in my video’s.
I stated in Friday’s post that we should see 1155 within the morning session or unless we get it in the premarket. I should have took that a little farther as we did see the best part of a 25 point S&P call to 20.75 points a couple hours before the open.
The next part could have pushed that completion to the afternoon session of which we did complete that call right at the end of day with a point or two to spare. I could see that early on and choose to talk about it in a recorded training session with my group. I showed them all the reasons why that was the likely target for the session and it was nice to see it come to pass.
The next follow up call I made yesterday in regards to the metals was that Silver was going to continue to fall until 26.50 and that would be a great area to buy as a long term hold. Well, the metal did drop an additional 10%+ in just that one session and hit $ 26 and change and reversed course all the way back up to the $30 area. Wow, that was fast.
The point there would be that the market respected the numbers that the method identified with great confidence. I would expect that low to hold even if we back fill a little lower from here. If anyone can buy physical silver at the upper 20’s area, that I believe would be a great long term buy. I expect the metals to do well for the next few years and reaching well over 100 per ounce.
We have some work to do currently to get things turned around which at this time we have not yet done, but am expecting big things in the next 12-18 months. It is a great alternative than just letting cash sit in the bank and or participating in the Treasury market. A portion of ones assets in metals is prudent even with the volatility. Time here will heal many woes.
As far as the Stock Market in general, I believe we have put in a tradable bottom and higher prices overall I feel can be expected. That is not a popular opinion just as I wrote that on Friday when the market was 272 Dow points lower. It takes a lot of courage to make a call like I did, but when you know what you can expect from the market as per my trading method, which is very unique, it is in reality not that hard to do.
I can be wrong at times and I did in part get the final target on my last S&P call coming up short, but that is trading. I will get many more right than I will get wrong and if one trades with good trade management, partial profits should be taken while on the way to the full target.
This is all in the daily market that I am talking about, of which I don’t really trade but look at and many others do as well. I like to follow and call that out because so many follow it and it is an easy way to point out that my trading method works in various time frames as my members can testify.
The other part is that this is really just for me. To exercise my skills to call market turning points in the daily market, the hourly market and on down to various tick charts. The method works across various time frames and is customizable to the trader who is flexible.
I have more to say, but will save it for tomorrow, until then, good trading to all.
We are seeing a new market move confirmed in my opinion as of this Wednesday September 14th, 2011. I just took the time earlier to apply the Sniper Day Trading Method, to the all the individual charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and found my answer. I thought we were at least going to hit the 1176 number today and wrote about that last night while the night trading was down to 1148. That would be a 28 point S&P turn around, or 280 point equivalent in the Dow for the coming session.This was all from a much lower levels that I first made this call and today that was hit.
I know have any hesitation satisfied as to the move after that, as I mentioned a few days ago in my blog posting that the next move was conditional. If this, then that. The “this” was a close above 1180 on the S&P would take us up substantially. I don’t remember exactly the number I gave then, but it was around S&P 1245 or so. In looking to my work, today, that is the number I feel very comfortable in projecting prices to. It should come pretty fast and as I see now as I write this while the market still has about 90 minutes to go before the close, it would appear that we will close above the 1180 mark and thus confirming the call earlier in the week.
In applying the Sniper Day Trading Method to the daily market, I can see the confirmation of the move. If I had done that work yesterday or even a few days ago, I would have had the greater conviction to make the call. The stock market is fractal in nature and the same principals that apply in a tick chart or time chart can be applied to a daily and or even weekly chart.
Since I mentioned stocks, the trading method will work excellent on stocks in the various time frames. It could go to the daily market and or much smaller time charts, tick charts or range charts. People trade these markets and they are usually very predictable with there decisions when you apply the trading method to it.
I will make another call that looks like it is getting ready to move. There is currently no indication of this market doing anything substantial as of now, but in the days to come, I feel we will see a huge drop in the price of Gold, and Silver will be going along for the ride. I can quickly see a $150 dollar drop in Gold coming as the stock market continues to advance.
This drop in Gold is likely only temporary but it will non the less likely happen. I am looking for something to happen around Friday, but it could come as soon as tomorrow. This is all my opinion and something I have been watching and waiting for to call out. I could be wrong, so don’t take my advise to trade off of, use your own judgement and make your trading decisions in that area, as I am just giving my opinion on the matter.
In today’s trading, I had two trades for solid gains while only investing about 30 minutes start to stop for the session. I will post my trades in the chart below. One note, and I often mention this that the trading method is not about following indicators, it is about knowing how to trade by being able to read the price action. I do this in a very unique way far different from so many others. This is my own compilation of understanding markets and how to limit ones risk by being able to enter with very little draw down and virtually instant price movement gratification.
With all of that said, the trading indicators are extremely consistent with the trading method and it’s components, so following the indicators can help learning members get a handle of the turning points that happen through out the day. The method is customizable to the individual and can be adjusted to the markets you trade and the dominant time frames you currently use. I trade for short term moves mainly on the S&P emini, but that is me. The days session and it turning point and continuation points identified below.
As I finish writing this, I can see that the market moved up into the 1190’s and is settling back to around the low 1180’s. On the very short term, as in tomorrow’s morning session, a pull back to 1168 would be very normal and could be expected, so just be cautious and aware of that. Again, that is just my opinion and not trading advise. Best to you all !
Well, as the title of today’s blog suggests, I see a down day for Thursday’s market with a pretty good size drop coming. I could be wrong, but so far so good. I came into today’s market late with a small loss to start my day followed up with a second trade just before the close. I covered a piece of it at +3.25 points, more at +6 points and have one more for which I will try and cover around the 1175 area or lower on tomorrows open.
Currently, we are at 1183.25 in the S&P emini’s and I have +8 points into the last contract. I can see that 1175 area or lower coming into play within the first hour of the tomorrows day session and will try and hold out for that price. We will likely see much lower prices for the whole session as I am looking for the market to retrace, to as mentioned in yesterdays post, 1150 to 1140 area at least. There is a chance that it just keeps on going, but I will say that it should find some support around that area for a larger counter trend rally back up over today’s highs and then some. First things first on this move and so we will see.
I will post my days trades with the previous possible trades as per my custom trade indicator. I could not fit the day in with the smaller size chart like I usually show, so brought up the next larger chart for you to see the whole day with the signals as marked.
The trade indicators are not the method by any means, but they are consistent with it. That is so true and I have said it many times before, but it bears repeating. The trading method would give you the exact same signals in most cases with some trades stronger than others.
The trade method will screen the stronger trades and so we can be selective with the trades as I have them marked here in the screen shot below. You don’t need to hit all these marked trades, just one or two would do you very well. To trade all day, leaves yourself open for mistakes and fatigue can easily set in causing unwanted losses.
This chart is consistent with the smaller chart I show and the signals are exactly the same, but you get this bigger picture view. The smaller chart lets you ZOOM IN for a more detail view, but as mentioned, the indicator signals are the same. This is consistent with what I call my T-2 trade screen. This catches the “Turning points” as I call them and continuation trades. Those are marked with small arrows as per the indicator and are a very good timing tool to re-enter the market as the move progresses down or up, depending on the direction of the market.
It is always a good idea to leave your mind open as to what the market wants to do, but when looking at higher time frame charts, you can see things that the smaller charts are not exactly showing you. To see the larger move coming I was talking about above, I moved to the next larger time frame in the method (not shown) and it was flashing lower prices. You always have to take it one step at a time and not get ahead of yourself, but a trader can trade these larger time frames for a lot less trades and substantially higher returns.
The trade method, called the top of the market and its break down entry short of 1204 at 7:32 a.m West Coast time for a long range multiple point drop and called for support to come in 1182. There were bounces along the way, but just playing the next time frame higher, not shown, could have kept you in for this whole move. I don’t trade out of that larger time frame, but use it for guidance and direction.
As I continue to write, the S&P is down below 1181 and puts +10 points in the last piece. I know its not where it is , but where I close it out that counts and with 2/3 of position close already, makes for a happy ending any way I look at it.
That is all for today; last note; I will be going on vacation until after Labor Day, but will still be keeping up with my blog to some degree, but I will not be trading. I will likely post the days turns or some part of it, but I want to take a break after today’s market. Anyone interested in the method, you still contact me, as I will be available to still help you get started. Those current members looking for help and or support, I will still be here for you too, so don’t worry. I will be traveling to the Oregon Coast and up to Portland and into Washington and more.
This is why we work, to enjoy time off and visit with family and friends. I hope my readers are able to do some of the same before the Summer is over. Trade well and committed, Vince
The markets are in a hot zone right now, with volume and moves accelerated greatly. This can be a good market to trade if your trading platform is solid and trade execution speed lightning fast. That is not to mention, if your timing is off and you are not precise with your entries, you will take unwanted draw downs and losses. You need to be on your game if you want to participate. Anything less and you will be taking on a lot of additional risk and losses and your efforts will seem more like a gamble. Anytime you do not posses the trading advantage, you are just guessing and I don’t have to tell you the results of that kind of effort.
Be selective, wait for the best entries with this kind of market. You don’t want to over expose yourself to this market as it can chew you up and spit you out. So, an underexposure is really best, but trade if you must with as much precision as you can. A stop loss for a typical trade a few weeks ago might have to be doubled and or tripled to have the same margin, but the targets need to be double or triple as well, to compensate for the additional risk. In addition, traders should consider to lower there contract size if they do not want to take on additional risk. Being aggressive in this kind of market can bring in windfall profits, but it has a lot of additional risks and can be a double edge sword.
In today’s trading, I wanted to trade the pre-market, but I was not up and ready in time, I just took a little extra time to relax and prepare after the markets active opening. We did see a little slower action a couple of hours into the day, as compared to the open and made two trades in total for the day. The first one, had good timing on the entry, very little draw down and ended up getting stuck in the trade as I tried to exit on a limit order in a falling market. A couple of attempts and I found myself all the way back down and then some for a stop loss of 3.50 points. Next trade was the same type of entry in a quiet small consolidation area, with very little draw down and great movement with the first exit a market order for +9 points and the second one for a stop market of 8.50 points. A good day, with no need to push it in about 60 minutes of trading.
I have the turning points marked up as per the trading indicators, but this is not the trading method. My trading is price based which takes into account time, space (movement) and energy. I won’t go into it, as I usually don’t, but I like to show those who look on that there is a basis for price movement that they can understand. Trading indicators are used by many a trader and it is something that others can relate to. So, I make that part easy in showing how price correlates to the indicators. This can be very helpful for many as they learn the price action part of the method, which is where the real power of this method comes in at. The indicators do a nice job of confirming the method as you can see hundreds of times in the daily postings I put up.
What ever your method, be consistent in doing the same types of things when they are warranted. This way, you will be able to repeat your success as you move forward. I wish all my reader the very best.
Today was a big day on Wall Street. We should see follow through to today’s rally as I wrote about in yesterdays blog. I first mentioned this rally was coming a few days ago, Friday’s session. We took a couple more days of a pause and yesterday made the second call for the move. I can see prices having another day like today to push price into the 1300 + area.
Tomorrow, Wednesday, the Fed will make an announcement of there intentions for interest rates. I would bet they will be untouched, but the wording by Bernanke will be of great importance to Wall Street. Usually, those announcements are at 11:15 am West Coast or 2:15 East Coast, so look for good movement in the morning and a slow down before the announcement and a pick up in activity after it.
The market is also watching the Greek debt situation as well. A renegotiation of there debt is what the street is looking for, but we will see. The market will price it all in as it goes along.
In today’s trading, I felt pretty strong about the rally coming, so I positioned myself in the aftermarket to try and take advantage of it. My first attempt was not successful, with a 2 point stop out, but my second re-entry and the same price stuck. I was able to sell right near today’s high for a 15 S&P gain and a net 13 point gain for the day, very nice. A chart below with the corresponding turning points and secondary continuation points marked. The method is really completely separate from the indicators, but it all so consistent with it, even though it is unrelated. I teach how to read the price in a very unique way and the indicators are just extra.
Today, April 21st 2011, we saw Gold & Silver hit 31 years highs with amazing demand for the metals. Just since January, Silver had pulled back from 31 to 27 per oz, where it took on another massive move higher, to now almost 47 in less than 4 months.
If you compare the high in Silver to the Highs seen in the early 80’s where the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the Silver market, the metal would have to move up to, I believe, $140 an oz just to be at par with where it was back then, because of inflation.
If you ask me, Silver and Gold are just getting started, even though they have been in a long term bull move for more than 10 years. Both of those metals are a very good insurance policy against a paper dollar that has seen its purchasing power dwindle year after year, decade after decade.
Below is today’s turning points in the small T-2 chart for Sniper Day Trading. Most of the days turning points are seen, but there were some very good trades before that not shown on the screen shot.
The Silver market is huge, with contract size being at 5,000 oz, a 1 dollar more in the metal represents $5,000 dollars. With today’s move, over 2 dollars from the previous open, you have a basic windfall for many.
Looking at it another way, scalp trading the metal for .10 to .20 cent moves is $500 – $1,000 dollars per trade. It will work the same against you if you are wrong, so be sure you know what is going on and are well capitalized and trading a precision trading method.
My trading method works the same with Silver as it does with the S&P. Today’s moves are only an example of what has been happening for months. The moves are very much in line with the trading method and very predictable when seen through the eyes of a Sniper.
Trading this market, you need to be a Sniper, picking the exact area of interest as price gets ready to move out. I have those area’s circles and identified above. Click on the chart and you will see the turning points here just the same way you see them in the S&P.
The Gold and Oil market are two other markets with great interest and plenty of emotion backing them.
The S&P did trade today, but I took the day off. There was no movement, and that I am sure could have frustrated many a trader. It does not pay to try and trade a market that has virtually no trading range at all.
The market will still be here next week and we will again see life coming back into the index’s. Until then, lay low and safe.
Tomorrow is Good Friday and I believe shortened trading session? Be sure you know. I would already know that, but I don’t plan to trade, so don’t need to know . The point, check if you are going to trade. It is no fun seeing the market close on you with contracts still on board, now having to hold over the weekend. I did that once, and only once.
Today is Wednesday January 12th, as we saw the Dow Index +83 points and the S&P emini futures +12.
The volume came early on and very late in the session. From 8:30 to 12:30 West Coast, the market went to sleep. That was 4 hours of nothing. It can be hard to trade with no volume and movement as I saw today.
I have gotten off to a slow start this year, with a few points gain on Monday and 1 point gain yesterday. Both of those days I was only in the market a few minutes combined. I did not have the time to trade and was able to slip in a few trades. Today I had more time but hit that slow patch in the market, that is just how it goes. I was down about 1.50 points with a few small losses in the S&P, but decided to take a trade out of the Nasdaq Market. I don’t usually switch markets, but did today and hit a piece of that late market move for a few points. I show it in the U-Tube video below towards the very end.
The second video under that is from Monday’s sessions which just shows more of the same, turning points and continuation entries. I or any trader does not have to trade all of these area’s, but just a few will do and often times, just one to make a nice daily return. It is not to hard, but using good judgment and the method in full which is never really talked about, can help you get that done. Being successful at day trading is a lot harder than most people make it, because they are acting from emotions. Having a solid method that looks to price structure, support and resistance in a very unique way and the nature momentum of the market to help get this done is key. The trade indicators are only a reflection of all of these things just mentioned. When you have both, it can be a powerful combination.
Today is Wednesday and the third day of trading on Wall Street for the year, as the Dow was up 31 and the S&P +6.
This market does not want to go down as it popped up after gaping lower on the open. A welcomed sign to all
Tomorrow is the fourth day in a 5 day window as it relates to the January Effect. If the first 5 days are up strongly, it usually spills into a strong year for stocks. Better yet, if the whole month of January is strong, that spills over into a positive year for stocks to the tune of 78% of the time, or something close to that if my memory serves me. Lets watch Thursday and Friday to see how we close out the week. I will also report on the sentiment changes if any tomorrow or in Fridays post. They have been strong as small investors are heavily invested in this market with the public coming in with Bullish readings of 57-58 %, typically a very high reading.
Tuesday and Wednesdays S&P emini futures market, with Wednesday being on top.
-
Let me shift gears here for a moment. I will start my trading likely this coming Monday, but have done some recent U-Tube Video’s of this weeks price movements as it relates to in part to my trading method. Just a note on that as I will post here the last two I did from yesterday and today. It points out, “Turning Points” as I call them and continuation spots along the way as it relates. These are identified by some custom modified indicators I use to help determine these spots. This is done in an attempt to show those that look on, that there is something to this that can be useful to there trading in some fashion. I do need to say though, the trade indicators are not the trading method and is only a reflection of what is happening to the price.
I teach how to read the price and trade it first. I know I have written about this before, but it bears repeating when I post video’s as such. Their is a solid reason to enter all of these trade area’s as I have them marked as per the trade method, NOT THE INDICATORS. The thing about it is, that they are in the same spot. Which came first, you know the saying, but this time it is talking about the stock market. Is the indicator before the price or is the price before the indicators? I think you know the answer to that, and you are right. Price is always first and those who know how to trade the price apart from indicators will likely do better. If you have both and you can trust them to give you insight into the next move of the market, that is all you need.
Traders are usually very visual, but their is a lot more to the trading screen than meets the eye. Their are other ways to look at things, and they are very different than reading candle stick charts and such. Many traders like this form of analysis and I won’t attempt to shoot that down, but that is not what I do as I read the charts apart from indicators.
I mainly trade off of tick charts, attempting to scalp trade 2-4 points a day on the S&P 500 emini futures market. Each point represents $50 dollars per contract traded x the number of contracts can equal a nice sum for a session. Trading three contracts, and landing 3 points, is $450 for the session, with each point being $150 dollars. The minimum margin to day trade the S&P is roughly 1200 per contract assuming you open and close all contracts within the same session.
Trading boils down to good timing. With it, you get in with little draw down as the trade moves in your favor. Knowing when to do that is key and is what traders across the globe struggle with. I can say, their is a way to do that and do it with some degree of consistency. Support and Resistance combined with momentum can lead you to hitting these Sniper Spot area’s. Small windows of opportunity, come and then go. If you are able to hit the hole so to speak, picking up a few points is not that hard to do. Its all about knowing. If you know, you can do it. Does it take work to learn, yes. But what comes to us, that is so rewarding, without work and sacrifice. With it, is the opportunity to expand your empire if you so choose.
I believe, we do have the power to overcome any barrier if we think we can, but you need to know and have a way to get that done. Just thinking it so will not complete the job.
I know their may be those searching for answers to their trading problems and it could be you need a solid trade method, based on trading the price and what it represents first, then any trading indicators to help confirm your findings. This gives you the best of both worlds and is what I do when trading the Sniper Day Trading Method. I don’t want to sound like a commercial, but that is how it is and don’t know of how else to put it. I have helped many traders get over the hump and turn the corner to profitability. If you have questions please feel free to ask. I don’t mind to share some additional info.
Please log into the site.