Posts Tagged ‘turning points’

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High Probability Trading

Tuesday, May 8th, 2012

Today is Tuesday, May 8th and the markets were on the move today yet again with good price action through out the day.

I took two trades for a healthy daily goal + with the first being a short which set up the second trade, a long with a bit of legs under it. Everything within the method said the trade probabilities were to the upside on that second trade.

With the market coming under extreme heat earlier in the session, by the time I came rolling in, things had already shaken out and the market was on the mend. Much of the price action itself told the story onto its next moves.

Like chess, you need to think through your opponents past moves so you can see his futures moves and get positioned for the “take down”. Trading has some similar traits in that waiting for your opponent to show his hand and pick up on his strategy, you are buying time to let the market reveal its hand to you.

One of the things we traders need to remember is, not to get ahead of the game. What I mean is, do not allow our knowing of  the opponents hand create an over exuberance to participate in what has just been revealed in the games next move. As in chess, if you react to soon, you will loose that advantage of “knowing” and put yourself at risk.

My second trade had just a touch of that in it. I entered like I knew where that next move was going and I was right, but coming in to soon, sometimes is not always the best move. When it is going to just run right after entry, you may feel great, but if you come under a little fire, you have to sweat it out and may even be tempted to move your stop, all things you want to avoid. The first mistake can cause you to make a second and then even a third and then, you have a mess to clean up. Some don’t get it cleaned up and add to the mess, all what I call “destructive trading behavior”. It happens to just about everyone, but traders need to learn to maintain control and trade only what they know. Leave the speculation behind. High probability trading is what is sought after and can be achieved with the proper trading method and the discipline to execute it.

These are some of the hardest things to learn as you are dealing with human emotions at this point. If your trading method says, the market is going to go higher, then you want to just get in at the lowest price and ride it higher. It makes sense, but if you consider what you have to go through to get to the point of where it actually does take off, you may think the early entry is not really worth it.

What I mean is, you may get a good price, but you may also have to suffer some draw down before you see those higher prices you are waiting for. That can cause anxiety and it may even cause you to second guess your original decision, which then puts your position at risk. Indecision is not what we strive for, but solid well thought out plays that clearly has the odds in our favor.

In the chart above, you can see the turning points and some continuation points with the indicators I use confirming. The indicators are only reflecting what the price is doing and so is a reflection of price. I teach traders to focus on the price action and those things that make that up.

This is where the chess analysis comes in again. The market will many times need to move here and then there, before it can make its next move. Those moves are essential for proper positioning which creates the needed energy for price to then expand. If you don’t have the energy, you are only going to see small moves as it gets into position.

The trading “turning points” that I talk about are so very often the sweat spot within the charts to get things moving with little draw down. You can also clearly know where to place your stops in an identifiable way so as not to get hit, 4-5 ticks for the T-2 screen above.  All of this is repeatable price behavior educated traders can come to learn.

Getting to that point where you think you know is sometimes a little harder than most traders what to admit, as most give themselves to much credit. Staying humble with a teachable spirit, is apart of the journey and what is needed. Becoming a good day trader is a life long journey and continual learning is all apart of it. Stay open minded, observe and live your trading dream with high probability trading.

I wish you all the best.  Vince

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Market Closes on Key Support

Wednesday, February 29th, 2012

Today is Wednesday February 29th and we saw a late day sell off that took the market down to some key support in the daily market. I was looking for 1362 in yesterday’s market but it looks like it came a day late towards today’s close.

The market sentiment has stayed the same again this week, but hovering at the high end of the range. We came very close in reaching a market extreme here, but backed off and now the same for the last two weeks. I would expect a bullish bias, until everyone is invested before a meaningful sell off gets started, but today’s closing numbers are very important. A break below today’s close will shift or slow at best the daily momentum.

I will post today’s chart of the day here first and will post yesterday’s under that and give a few comments afterwards;

Today, I took three trades and they were counter to the early morning drop that I missed. That has been typical, as I usually stat trading when I feel alert. I know I most often miss the easier price movement that takes place within the first hour to 90 minutes of the day, but I do have enough confidence in the trading method that I can still pick up what I am looking for within each session, which is usually between 2-4 S&P points.

I often have to remind everyone that the trading indicators are not the trading method, but they are consistent with it. There is a complete separate market rational for all the entries that don’t have anything to do with the indicators.

I usually mark what I call “turning points” on the screen and continuation points when they are appropriate. A trader, I feels needs to know what the price pressure points represent and how that is interpreted into tradable points. Taking what the market gives easily is a good strategy for long term success. Always shooting for the stars is nice, but it can often lead to frustration and mistakes.

With that said, there are lots of clues within the trading method to trade for bigger point returns. One can always trade the next series of time frames higher for fewer trades and higher reward, but you need to invest more time and patients to get that. That is usually more than I am willing to pay and so, stick to what I can take easily and safely when I am ready to trade.

I will post yesterday’s trades below; Tuesday February 28

Yesterday, again missed a few easy early morning trades but got stuck with a tight narrow range for some time. This did cause me to trade for much longer than I really wanted to. I did a few things wrong and a few things right and ended the session with a small gain.

You can see that the indicators do a fairly good job of identifying where the market turning points are but this again is a reflection of the price. The price is always first and is what is traded. With that said, not every signal as shown is a strong buy or sell and that goes for every day. Some show stronger turning points than others and some are to be avoided. All of that is within the method and not the indicators, as they will not tell you that, but the method will.

Tomorrow is another day and hope to start a little earlier so I can finish earlier, sounds like a fair trade off, but we will see, until then good trading to all.

Vince

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Today’s Trades part 2

Tuesday, February 14th, 2012

Today is Tuesday, February 14th and I will just be posting my trades again today. The price movement looked OK today and can see that this afternoon things picked up. I do have the turning points for most of the day in the chart below, so you can see how it looks per my indicators. (click on the chart 2 times to blow it up to full size)

I often like to clarify, that the trade indicators is not the trading method, which exits completely separate. Knowing which trades are better and what makes up those possible turning points is essential to being prepared to trade them. It certainly adds and or puts the odds in your favor when you know what you can expect from each move so you can target your exits, which is apart of the trading method.  I wish you all the best. Vince

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Today’s First Hour Turning Points

Tuesday, November 29th, 2011

Today is November 29th, 2011 and I have today’s first hour turning points mapped out as shown below in the S&P emini futures.

The market had a little follow through from yesterdays huge run up in the opening hours of the session. Things settled down with some selling pressure coming in later in the day.

Tomorrow, I will do a bigger report on where the daily market may be headed and how much upside is left in this market, but for now will just post a screen shot of today’s first hour turning points as mentioned above.

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving, Vince

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Trading Psychology and the Trader

Tuesday, October 4th, 2011

Tuesday October 4th, 2011;  Hello this is Vince and want to give a quick up date on today’s action. I traded for around 1 hour, picked up a modest daily goal and went deer hunting. I did not bag a deer yet this season, but I still have about 2 weeks.

We did have that market reversal I quietly was expecting, today Tuesday and not yesterday, but did give out a number that the S&P should stay above, 1120 and it broke it in yesterdays market. I did mention yesterday that the Dow should then stay above 10,600 and can see that we did do that today nicely, on a strong close.

Let me keep this part short as I have other good things to share in today’s post as described yesterday. Many think that this market is going to crack and break down. I personally don’t think it is going to happen now. It will come, but just don’t think it is going to come now, when most expect it. The negativity is so thick, I can feel it in the financial airwaves and I don’t even have cable TV, (by choice).  Things don’t happen when everyone is expecting them to happen and everyone expects this market to crash. We will see in the days ahead.

Above, I have a still shot of the day’s trades I took and below that, a video of the whole days turning points and some of the continuation points. These are just the raw signals and some are better than others. Certainly all of of them are not meant to be traded, as all you really need is a couple of trades to come out nicely most days. The key is keeping your gains and adding to them. Said many times, the trading signals are not the method, but only a nice reflection of it. The reasoning and rational behind it is where the power to act comes from and we all know the adage, “Knowledge is Power”. It is true in this case as well.

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Let me shift gears into what I will be covering in the days and even weeks to come. It is something that traders need so badly and intently that it can not be overlooked. Feeding the mind of traders is just as important as feeding the stomach of a trader. Without food, you will die, I don’t need to convince anyone of that, but the same is true in trading. If you don’t feed your mind with the right mental food and thoughts, your account will die, and that is just as real as the other example given.

Let me first lay some ground work to base some of this on. Psychology is a topic that is often talked about in many fields and it is one that can not be overlooked by traders especially.

The word psychology comes from from the Greek word “psyche”, translated, soul and so the term can be described as the study of the soul.

Man has been created in three parts, the body, the soul and the spirit. We will be discussing the soul and which is also made up of three parts. One of these parts is the emotion as it is the emotion that we love, desire, hate, and have joy or sorrow. Another part of the soul is the mind where we have thoughts, considerations, idea’s and concepts. The third part of the soul is the will, through which we make decisions. Our joy or sorrow is something of the emotion.

When we consider or reason, we are using the mind and when we make a decision to do a certain thing, the will is in operation.  The mind, the will and the emotions then are the three parts of the soul.  By the mind we think, by the will we choose, and by the emotions we like or dislike, love or hate.

The above will lay a ground work for us to best lay a foundation to build upon. It is in understanding who we are and why we do what we do that we can uncover our weaknesses and strengths. In uncovering our weakness, we can then take responsibility for our trades and not lend to the theory that the markets are out to get us. That is flawed thinking and can be a simple example of how we get what we most often are afraid of.

In uncovering something as so simple as our thoughts and taking them captive, we have to face ourselves and do something about those flawed thoughts. Left untouched, it can wreck havoc on our ability to reach our goals.

So many traders can not understand themselves and why they do what they do, only to see what they have done after the dust settles in horror.

When traders pull stops because they can not accept the fact that they might be wrong, there are underlying problems in his or her thinking that is at the root of those actions. Again, left untouched a trader will only see looses in his account as an end result and have no idea why.

To often, traders give up there current trading method, thinking that the method is flawed, instead of looking within themselves as described above.

This is what I want to uncover in laying the ground work above. Some may not agree with my assessments of what we are made up of and my description of the soul and that is OK. It is not the spirit I will be discussing, but the soul, THE MIND, THE WILL, THE EMOTIONS.

My source for all the above is the Bible as all of what I said is back up with numerous scriptures. I did not give them as a specific references, but if anyone wants them I can provide that.

As we continue to study this topic and come up with practical applications on what we can do as traders to improve our overall performances, it will become clear that this is an area that is overlooked and in great need of discussion and training.

More to come in the next sessions. Trade well, trade committed.   Vince

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Follow up on Market Calls

Monday, September 26th, 2011

Today is Monday September 26th, 2011 and want to do a follow up to the market calls recently made.

First let me post my trades from today and will keep my comments short unlike Friday’s post.

I have been getting up a little later and so missing the early parts of the sessions recently, but that is not always bad. It gives a little insight into what is happening and what may continue to happen as things move along.

I took 4 trades total, 2 were for pretty good gains, with one for a small loss and one nearly flat. An average day with only 45 minutes invested trading and a little better than 50 minutes in follow the market. From that stand point a perfect day.

I gave myself a B- grade as my second trade had poor placement but good overall direction still. The short did not produce within the time it should have and just exited nearly flat. I added on 1 and that one had -1 tick. The last long, I did not get filled at the high tick and exited at my increased stop, close but no cigar. I may have been a little harsh on my grade, but I can’t change that now. An easy day overall with little struggle.

The afternoon session I did live video’s for my group and called out several entries on the way to a 1155 target that I was talking about in my Friday post and in my video’s.

I stated in Friday’s post that we should see 1155 within the morning session or unless we get it in the premarket. I should have took that a little farther as we did see the best part of a 25 point S&P call to 20.75 points a couple hours before the open.

The next part could have pushed that completion to the afternoon session of which we did complete that call right at the end of day with a point or two to spare. I could see that early on and choose to talk about it in a recorded training session with my group.  I showed them all the reasons why that was the likely target for the session and it was nice to see it come to pass.

The next follow up call I made yesterday in regards to the metals was that Silver was going to continue to fall until 26.50 and that would be a great area to buy as a long term hold. Well, the metal did drop an additional 10%+ in just that one session and hit $ 26 and change and reversed course all the way back up to the $30 area. Wow, that was fast.

The point there would be that the market respected the numbers that the method identified with great confidence. I would expect that low to hold even if we back fill a little lower from here. If anyone can buy physical silver at the upper 20’s area, that I believe would be a great long term buy. I expect the metals to do well for the next few years and reaching well over 100 per ounce.

We have some work to do currently to get things turned around which at this time we have not yet done, but am expecting big things in the next 12-18 months. It is a great alternative than  just letting cash sit in the bank and or participating in the Treasury market. A portion of ones assets in metals is prudent even with the volatility. Time here will heal many woes.

As far as the Stock Market in general, I believe we have put in a tradable bottom and higher prices overall I feel can be expected. That is not a popular opinion just as I wrote that on Friday when the market was 272 Dow points lower. It takes a lot of courage to make a call like I did, but when you know what you can expect from the market as per my trading method, which is very unique, it is in reality not that hard to do.

I can be wrong at times and I did in part get the final target on my last S&P call coming up short, but that is trading. I will get many more right than I will get wrong and if one trades with good trade management, partial profits should be taken while on the way to the full target.

This is all in the daily market that I am talking about, of which I don’t really trade but look at and many others do as well. I like to follow and call that out because so many follow it and it is an easy way to point out that my trading method works in various time frames as my members can testify.

The other part is that this is really just for me. To exercise my skills to call market turning points in the daily market, the hourly market and on down to various tick charts. The method works across various time frames and is customizable to the trader who is flexible.

I have more to say, but will save it for tomorrow, until then, good trading to all.

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New Stock Market Move Now Confirmed

Wednesday, September 14th, 2011

We are seeing a new market move confirmed in my opinion as of this Wednesday September 14th, 2011. I just took the time earlier to apply the Sniper Day Trading Method, to the all the individual charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and found my answer. I thought we were at least going to hit the 1176 number today and wrote about that last night while the night trading was down to 1148. That would be a 28 point S&P turn around, or 280 point equivalent in the Dow for the coming session.This was all from a much lower levels that I first made this call and today that was hit.

I know have any hesitation satisfied as to the move after that, as I mentioned a few days ago in my blog posting that the next move was conditional. If this, then that. The “this” was a close above 1180 on the S&P would take us up substantially. I don’t remember exactly the number I gave then, but it was around S&P 1245 or so.  In looking to my work, today, that is the number  I feel very comfortable in projecting prices to. It should come pretty fast and as I see now as I write this while the market still has about 90 minutes to go before the close, it would appear that we will close above the 1180 mark and thus confirming the call earlier in the week.

In applying the Sniper Day Trading Method to the daily market, I can see the confirmation of the move. If I had done that work yesterday or even a few days ago, I would have had the greater conviction to make the call. The stock market is fractal in nature and the same principals that apply in a tick chart or time chart can be applied to a daily and or even weekly chart.

Since I mentioned stocks, the trading method will work excellent on stocks in the various time frames. It could go to the daily market and or much smaller time charts, tick charts or range charts. People trade these markets and they are usually very predictable with there decisions when you apply the trading method to it.

I will make another call that looks like it is getting ready to move. There is currently no indication of this market doing anything substantial as of now, but in the days to come, I feel we will see a huge drop in the price of Gold, and Silver will be going along for the ride. I can quickly see a $150 dollar drop in Gold coming as the stock market continues to advance.

This drop in Gold is likely only temporary but it will non the less likely happen. I am looking for something to happen around Friday, but it could come as soon as tomorrow. This is all my opinion and something I have been watching and waiting for to call out. I could be wrong, so don’t take my advise to trade off of, use your own judgement and make your trading decisions in that area, as I am just giving my opinion on the matter.

In today’s trading, I had two trades for solid gains while only investing about 30 minutes start to stop for the session. I will post my trades in the chart below. One note, and I often mention this that the trading method is not about following indicators, it is about knowing how to trade by being able to read the price action. I do this in a very unique way far different from so many others. This is my own compilation of understanding markets and how to limit ones risk by being able to enter with very little draw down and virtually instant price movement gratification.

With all of that said, the trading indicators are extremely consistent with the trading method and it’s components, so following the indicators can help learning members get a handle of the turning points that happen through out the day. The method is customizable to the individual and can be adjusted to the markets you trade and the dominant time frames you currently use. I trade for short term moves mainly on the S&P emini, but that is me. The days session and it turning point and continuation points identified below.

As I finish writing this, I can see that the market moved up into the 1190’s and is settling back to around the low 1180’s. On the very short term, as in tomorrow’s morning session, a pull back to 1168 would be very normal and could be expected, so just be cautious and aware of that. Again, that is just my opinion and not trading advise. Best to you all !

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Thursday’s August 17th Market Drop Coming

Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

Well, as the title of today’s blog suggests, I see a down day for Thursday’s market with a pretty good size drop coming.  I could be wrong, but so far so good.  I came into today’s market late with a small loss to start my day followed up with a second trade just before the close. I covered a piece of it at +3.25 points, more at +6 points and have one more for which I will try and cover around the 1175 area or lower on tomorrows open.

Currently, we are at 1183.25 in the S&P emini’s and I have +8 points into the last contract. I can see that 1175 area or lower coming into play within the first hour of the tomorrows day session and will try and hold out for that price. We will likely see much lower prices for the whole session as I am looking for the market to retrace, to as mentioned in yesterdays post, 1150 to 1140 area at least. There is a chance that it just keeps on going, but I will say that it should find some support around that area for a larger counter trend rally back up over today’s highs and then some. First things first on this move and so we will see.

I will post my days trades with the previous possible trades as per my custom trade indicator. I could not fit the day in with the smaller size chart like I usually show, so brought up the next larger chart for you to see the whole day with the signals as marked.

The trade indicators are not the method by any means, but they are consistent with it. That is so true and I have said it many times before, but it bears repeating. The trading method would give you the exact same signals in most cases with some trades stronger than others.

The trade method will screen the stronger trades and so we can be selective with the trades as I have them marked here in the screen shot below. You don’t need to hit all these marked trades, just one or two would do you very well. To trade all day, leaves yourself open for mistakes and fatigue can easily set in causing unwanted losses.

This chart is consistent with the smaller chart I show and the signals are exactly the same, but you get this bigger picture view. The smaller chart lets you ZOOM IN  for a more detail view, but as mentioned, the indicator signals are the same. This is consistent with what I call my T-2 trade screen. This catches the “Turning points” as I call them and continuation trades. Those are marked with small arrows as per the indicator and are a very good timing tool to re-enter the market as the move progresses down or up, depending on the direction of the market.

It is always a good idea to leave your mind open as to what the market wants to do, but when looking at higher time frame charts, you can see things that the smaller charts are not exactly showing you. To see the larger move coming I was talking about above, I moved to the next larger time frame in the method (not shown) and it was flashing lower prices. You always have to take it one step at a time and not get ahead of yourself, but a trader can trade these larger time frames for a lot less trades and substantially higher returns.

The trade method, called the top of the market and its break down entry short of 1204 at 7:32 a.m West Coast time for a long range multiple point drop and called for support to come in 1182.  There were bounces along the way, but just playing the next time frame higher, not shown, could have kept you in for this whole move. I don’t trade out of that larger time frame, but use it for guidance and direction.

As I continue to write, the S&P is down below 1181 and puts +10 points in the last piece. I know its not where it is , but where I close it out that counts and with 2/3 of position close already, makes for a happy ending any way I look at it.

That is all for today;  last note;   I will be going on vacation until after Labor Day, but will still be keeping up with my blog to some degree, but I will not be trading. I will likely post the days turns or some part of it, but I want to take a break after today’s market. Anyone interested in the method, you still contact me, as I will be available to still help you get started. Those current members looking for help and or support, I will still be here for you too, so don’t worry. I will be traveling to the Oregon Coast and up to Portland and into Washington and more.

This is why we work, to enjoy time off and visit with family and friends. I hope my readers are able to do some of the same before the Summer is over.   Trade well and committed, Vince

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Additional Market Risk & Exposure

Wednesday, August 10th, 2011

The markets are in a hot zone right now, with volume and moves accelerated greatly. This can be a good market to trade if your trading platform is solid and trade execution speed lightning fast. That is not to mention, if your timing is off and you are not precise with your entries, you will take unwanted draw downs and losses. You need to be on your game if you want to participate. Anything less and you will be taking on a lot of additional risk and losses and your efforts will seem more like a gamble.  Anytime you do not posses the trading advantage, you are just guessing and I don’t have to tell you the results of that kind of effort.

Be selective, wait for the best entries with this kind of market. You don’t want to over expose yourself to this market as it can chew you up and spit you out. So, an underexposure is really best, but trade if you must with as much precision as you can. A stop loss for a typical trade a few weeks ago might have to be doubled and or tripled to have the same margin, but the targets need to be double or triple as well, to compensate for the additional risk. In addition, traders should consider to lower there contract size if they do not want to take on additional risk. Being aggressive in this kind of market can bring in windfall profits, but it has a lot of additional risks and can be a double edge sword.

In today’s trading, I wanted to trade the pre-market, but I was not up and ready in time, I just took a little extra time to relax and prepare after the markets active opening. We did see a little slower action a couple of hours into the day, as compared to the open and made two trades in total for the day. The first one, had good timing on the entry, very little draw down and ended up getting stuck in the trade as I tried to exit on a limit order in a falling market. A couple of attempts and I found myself all the way back down and then some for a stop loss of 3.50 points. Next trade was the same type of entry in a quiet small consolidation area, with very little draw down and great movement with the first exit a market order for +9 points and the second one for a stop market of 8.50 points. A good day, with no need to push it in about 60 minutes of trading.

I have the turning points marked up as per the trading indicators, but this is not the trading method. My trading is price based which takes into account time, space (movement) and energy. I won’t go into it, as I usually don’t, but I like to show those who look on that there is a basis for price movement that they can understand. Trading indicators are used by many a trader and it is something that others can relate to. So, I make that part easy in showing how price correlates to the indicators. This can be very helpful for many as they learn the price action part of the method, which is where the real power of this method comes in at. The indicators do a nice job of confirming the method as you can see hundreds of times in the daily postings I put up.

What ever your method, be consistent in doing the same types of things when they are warranted. This way, you will be able to repeat your success as you move forward. I wish all my reader the very best.

Trade well and committed, Vince

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Big Profit Day for the Bulls

Tuesday, June 21st, 2011

Today was a big day on Wall Street. We should see follow through to today’s rally as I wrote about in yesterdays blog. I first mentioned this rally was coming a few days ago, Friday’s session. We took a couple more days of a pause and yesterday made the second call for the move. I can see prices having another day like today to push price into the 1300 + area.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, the Fed will make an announcement of there intentions for interest rates. I would bet they will be untouched, but the wording by Bernanke will be of great importance to Wall Street. Usually, those announcements are at 11:15 am West Coast or 2:15 East Coast, so look for good movement in the morning and a slow down before the announcement and a pick up in activity after it.

The market is also watching the Greek debt situation as well. A renegotiation of there debt is what the street is looking for, but we will see. The market will price it all  in as it goes along.

In today’s trading, I felt pretty strong about the rally coming, so I positioned myself in the aftermarket to try and take advantage of it. My first attempt was not successful, with a 2 point stop out, but my second re-entry and the same price stuck. I was able to sell right near today’s high for a 15 S&P gain and a net 13 point gain for the day, very nice. A chart below with the corresponding turning points and secondary continuation points marked. The method is really completely separate from the indicators, but it all so consistent with it, even though it is unrelated. I teach how to read the price in a very unique way and the indicators are just extra.

Good Trading to all.

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