Today is Thursday, June 11th and the market is still at it, marking time by moving sideways.
It wants to go down, but there always seems to be a rally bringing it back up. Go figure. Well, that is what we figured, for about the last week now and we continue to see more of the same. Yesterday’s market did the exact same thing as well.
It is becoming a ritual. Things will change as time is allowed to pass. This is the same thing as a pull back, but you are getting the rotation while prices are in a stable range. This does not happen too often, but I have seen it before. Investors, Mutual Funds, Pension Managers are all rotating through their holdings. When one group wants to get out, you have another group ready to step in and take the bid, so prices are not dropping like you would think after such a big move up.
At this point, it would appear that any sell off is going to be short lived. There seems to be a concerted effort to keep prices up, creating the impression of a full economic recovery. The markets always look 6 to 9 months out and if it sees better days down the road, even if those days are not here, it will bid the market up. That is part of the reason I think we will see higher or sustained prices until late September/October.
Today’s trading went well as did yesterday’s. I think yesterday’s was a little better than double daily goal and today a little above daily goal. Today I had no losses, hurray. My first trade was a gainer and the rest followed, 6 total trades, one break even and the rest gains. I had computer problems this morning, but I think I have it worked out. Bought a new external hard drive, took all of my training video’s off the computer and cleaned things up a bit. I should be OK now.
Well, I just had a thought, I remember what I had said some time back about the whole flu thing. I had said that it was coming back to visit us and that it was going to be a problem for corporate profits. That was over a month ago. Today, we see the first stages of my prediction coming to pass. The W.H.O. has declared pandemic level 6, something that has not happened in over 40 years.
What is the implications of this on the stock market? I will recap and update based upon what I think. Whatever the real problem, it looks like it will get a lot of press and with it will come the impetus for getting the population vaccinated. It has been previously proposed, companies that have about 50 employees or more will have appointed a full time person to monitor the health of individuals within the company, (an additional expense as well). Key people could be required or forced to remain home and get vaccinated.
There is a lot of controversy over this and only 30% of the people say that they will be willing to do this. Bottom line is, it is going to hurt corporate profits and Wall Street will ferret this out, project it onto future earnings and the market will again make a large adjustment down. It is not going to be a real big problem until official flu season, around October.
There are about 3 maybe 4 other things not related to the above that will potentially add to downward price pressure, a cocktail of events. A declining dollar, increasing interest rates, increasing unemployment and a new wave of foreclosures to the middle of the market, which is a larger segment of mortgages written. If you throw in problems with North Korea and Iran you have a whole smorgasbord of events that may be just too much for the markets to bear. I may write more about this in a future post, so stay tuned.
I have learned that in order to be a most excellent trader, you have to look beyond the obvious. If you only see what is in front of you and are not able to ask what if questions, you will not know how or what to do until it is too late and your account is under water.
That applies to trading, but it also applies to things in the world which affect companies, employment, innovation and our future. You need to look and think ahead and always allow for the impossible. No surprises. If you look at the market through the thoughts and ideas of only yourself, your vision will be limited and so will the possibilities of a super-sized trading account with steady profits.
The people you trade against are not going to be willing to cue you in on all the real happenings, so try and learn to think for yourself and question things. That could apply to market direction as well as many other areas. I am weaving two kinds of thoughts into one, but they are really only one thought applied to different areas, same reasoning, but nonetheless all related. Unless you are different, you will be ordinary.
That is what Wall Street wants to trade up against, a group of ordinary investor/traders. They seem to do very well against this group and they don’t want anything to change. So if your plans are to the contrary, then you need to get busy and educated. I can tell you from personal experience that if you try and learn how to trade only on your own, like I did, it is going to take you a long long time to figure it all out, many years and you may still never get it. Just ask yourself this question, do you have the time to wait that long?
I think not. If I am right in my assessment of increased volatilty later this year, do you want to be able to capture some of those massive market moves, or will you be paralyzed with fear, not knowing what to do as the market takes off without you and potential profits Just think about it.
I have and that is why I will be gearing up big time, preparing new strategies for those explosive moves. The work starts now, going over how to limit risk and exposure while maxamizing huge total dollar returns. If anyone is interested in preparing now for what will be needed later to address the increased volatility that is sure to come, send me an email and I will give you more information on how you can be ready and what strategies you will need to implement.
http://www.screencast.com/t/JGm4fbZJx Yesterday’s equity chart
http://www.screencast.com/t/t8g1zR3fR Today’s equity chart
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