Posts Tagged ‘trading range’

Controlling Greed and your Trading Emotions

Wednesday, January 13th, 2010

Today is Tuesday, January 12th and the momentum has slowed the last two days.

Todays Index’s were down across the board, with the NASDAQ getting the worst, followed by the S&P -10 points and the Dow, -30 points. We are very close to the extended March 6th trend line support on these index’s. If that support breaks, it will be the first clue that we may have turned the corner on the rally. But still it remains intact and all is well.

As I had thought, today we saw the first signs of life in the futures market, with volume coming in at over 2 million contracts. Just what I was saying yesterday, that 2 million contracts traded in the emini futures market is considered good volume and we hit it today. It has been a long time, probably longer than a month with this kind of volume.

As day traders, we need volume to push the market around, otherwise it becomes more difficult for traders to make money. It is always easy for them lose money and with low volume, bingo, you are there.

Most traders do not know how to trade in shallow trading ranges and end up getting beat up pretty bad. But if you know how to Scalp Trade this market, taking a little out of the middle, you can survive in any kind of trading environment. That is not easy to do for most people and there will be those that say it is foolish to try. Probably because they were not able to make it work for them. Traders are doing this all across the globe and they are taking it from those who think they can.

Some people only scalp trade and that term can mean different things for different people. To me, taking 2,3 or 4 ticks, will qualify as a scalp. Others will call taking a 2-4 point profit on the S&P emini’s, a scalp. So, the term is used widely. If I can make a profit on these small trades while keeping my losses to an equal amount 1 to 1, I am doing OK, because my percentage is pretty high. You need to have 60% or better with the better being more like 75 and up.

When I trade, I look for both kinds of trades. If the market will give me an extended move, often I position myself to capture it. At times I take half off early which gives me the extra ability to ride the move out. It’s a good way to trade.

In my trading today, I did not do as well as I had wanted, but I had a few bigger trades to cover myself. I came in late in the day and missed some big moves short. Overall I think a came a little short of my daily goal because of commission, but close. I had 10 trades 5 gains 5 losses, but had a few trades for higher point returns. As I said I was off. Lack of concentration and I did not take a break from a training session I had with a student.

My timing and concentration was off, with the first two trades as loses. They were not good entries and it cost me. I could have avoided  some of the lose by closing the trade out early as I normally would do once I start to lose the edge. To me and my method, the Trading Edge, is clearly defined and when I lose it, I need to get out, often avoiding  my full stop out of 1 S&P point. I start out with a 1 point stop on all trades, but it almost instantly goes to three ticks when I get one tick of movement in my favor usually when I am in scalp mode.

Often times I am able to catch trades for several points as I did last Friday with a 4 and 5 point gain. It does depend on the price action and what the market gives you. If the markets clamed up and its daily trading range shrunk, many traders would suffer, because they only know how to trend trade. When its choppy, they often stay out, but only after they got burned by non directional non moving market. Being able to Snipe or pick off a few trades makes life a lot easier, providing that you can do it. You end up having the ability to pull a few points a day out of the market, no matter what kind of market you have.

I will make a few comments from where I left off yesterday, about needing all three components to become successful as a trader. It does not matter what you trade, these are things everyone in this business needs.

We all need to know how to trade, by following a methodology or system of some kind. Next you need trading discipline, as it is often talked about.  The last thing is, you need to be aware of the forces that are naturally working against you. What forces are you talking about?  Well, for starters, yourself. When trading, there is something called our human nature. That nature says many things about us and our ability to become profitable. It is to often, the unseen things that holds us back from realizing our dreams.                                                                                                                         ————————————————————————————————————————————————-Let me focus on one point and see how far we go. GREED. That is a human emotion that all of us are faced with. We did not learn it, it comes very natural for most of us. I believe, we need to unlearn it or decide ahead of time, by an active decision to not allow this emotion to take root in us. If we can, it will make so many things better not only for our trading endeavors, but in every other area of our lives, good stuff.

The only way we can ever address it, is if we are first aware of it. After that, what are we going to do, to get a handle on it?  This emotion has been one of the leading causes for traders to blow up there accounts.

We need to be content with modest gains when we have them. The opposite of content is discontent and the twin brother of discontent is greed.

Unless you are content with your piece of the market, you will continue to strive for more. In trying to get more, you will lose what you have. Take control of your trading and your emotions. Trade with a purpose and a goal.

Top of Trading Range Fast Approaching

Thursday, October 15th, 2009

Today is Wednesday, October 14th and we did get that rally I thought was coming.

It started out with a gap opening and closed at the high of the day. Often times than not, gap openings get filled. What I mean by that is the price will trade back down to fill in the gap where there was no trading. Gap days can be more difficult days to trade, because the whole equilibrium of the day is thrown off. It can take a while to bring current cash prices in line with the future’s price and that is why there is such indecision and erratic price action. Future contract prices, by nature take their cue from the cash market, in this case, the S&P 500. Seasoned traders know that it is often just the other way around, where the futures will lead the cash market. I rarely look at the cash market, but I do take a peak now and then to get a bigger picture view, that would be 5 minute, 60 minute and daily. It is a good idea to know where you are in the overall price action structure. That can give you insight, but that is all it is meant to do. Do not make a science out of it and convince yourself about any market direction, because it can all change very quickly. This was yesterdays advise and is a good point to remember.

You can see below, the two charts I have labeled “Daily Dow” and “Daily S&P”.  This was a chart that I posted two weeks ago, before the last little drop down. We did end up breaking the rising wedge and pulled down to support. Not so far on the Dow, but right on support for the S&P. The pattern is inside the context of a larger pattern at work and it seems to be playing itself out very nicely. That is why it looked like a rally day today. It is on its way the at least the upper yellow line (top side of the larger Wedge).

Trading is assessing probabilities, “If This, Then That”   Conditional Statements. Well, we had “This” which was an initial minor break, the “That”, is the follow through in price action in the direction of the break. The same is true for the continuation break back to the upside. I have it marked on one of the charts. Again, the “This” is the break out and the  ”That”, is the continuation of the break, as prices gun for the top of the larger formation.

We are not far from reaching a 50% retracement from the top of the market 1564  to the low, 666 and the middle would be, 1120. This is how price action and market rhythm usually flow. Once the down-trend has slowed and starts to retrace from the oversold condition, often times it will move back to the middle of its range. I don’t see anything to say, that this is going to be anything different. That is why I have been calling this move back up to the middle, for months now. Anyone following me knows that is true.

I have a chart of the S&P below, click on the link and notice how back in February, say around 11th or 12th. I remember saying that if that line gets broken, it will be “LOOK OUT BELOW”. Well, it did just that, 1,400 points came off the Dow in just a few weeks and the same percentage in the S&P. The reason I bring that up is because it is that same line which is coming into play now. In technical analysis, “Support Becomes Resistance, When Broken”.  The price action broke through the support and that same line extended but rising out to the right side of the chart will often times act as resistance, as is the case now. In fact it has come up into that line 5 times now and backed off each time. There will come a time when it hits the line and backs off, but will not come back as it has previously. That is also what I have been expecting, but not until the lower support of the formation has been broken. We are not anywhere near that right now, but pushing to the upper limits of the pattern as seen in todays price action. 

Daily price action takes a long time to develop. It is nice to know where you are in the big picture but as day traders, it is not the dominant focus. Positioning yourself to capture small pieces of movement in price action is the name of the game. successful traders usually trade for the money. That statement may seem obvious for many, but to often that is not the case. You may want to ask yourself, “Why are you trading the financial markets” ? Just check your answers, but be honest.

You would be surprised that, many people are involved in trading for a lot of reasons other than the money. I don’t need to take a poll to know the answer to that question, but I would estimate that is so true. The reason why I know that, is because of human nature. Trading successfully is not natural for most people. It is hard and unless you know something about human nature and why people do what they do, you will be at a disadvantage to others who do.

Buying and selling stock is a very emotional process. You will never be able to separate the two. That is a good thing, in that as a successful day trader, you should be able to read other players. This in a way is like, reading the players at a poker table. I don’t gamble, but I know how the game is played and I know players get a lot of information from reading people.  Very similar to reading price action, if you know how. Do you know how?

http://www.screencast.com/t/mKvrLEnMFZQN                Cash S&P Daily Chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/bByMQxRy                           Cash Dow Daily Chart

Screen Shot, S&P 500 Cash Index with Commentary

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

Today is Thursday, October 1st and today we got our answer. That answer came early on in the session.

The sell off came early on in the session and did not look back all day long. Today is what you call a solid “Trend Day Sell Off”.  The whole session was pretty much lower and lower to the close, all one way. You usually get about 3 of these a month.

Earlier in the week, I had talked about watching the market after the rally back up. That was going to set up a pivot point that was going to be critical. If that got broken to the downside, then you will likely get a move down to the lower end of the wedge, around 9300 for the Dow and 1010 or so on the S&P. That is about 19 points more on the cash index. This is one of those conditional situations. If this, then that. Today was the “if this”, in the breaking of the pivot low. The daily momentum had already slowed so it was reasonable to expect the break down. But had the event turned up and broke out of the tight consolidation range it was building, then you could have looked long one more time, but again that did not happen.

Today’s break, told traders to play the short side, the previous rally down and back up, just added more fuel for this break and this time, it did not come back up. At critical turning points the market does not like to make it easy for traders to establish themselves. If you know where the pressure points are, like today, as the sell off got under way, you take a shot at it and hold on.  I could see the wedge building and it looked likely, but I don’t like to get surprised if something happens that I have not thought of. Contingency plans are a must.

As I stated once before, you can not get into only thinking one way. If the move has not happened yet and it appears that a downside break is coming, you still need to see the possibility of any other play. If that play comes alive, you will not be surprised and can then easily adjust your mind around to the long side of the market. It is phycology. You will in essence created a mental block for yourself that could cost you a lot of money, needlessly.

You become to sure that the market is going to do something and when it does not, you then are only seeing what you want to see and not what is actually happening. This can cause you to take multiple stop outs  in a short period of time and that will only start to create a whole new set of problems.

Now that we know that the markets have broken the upper range to the downside, a trader can be looking to the short side of the market as the dominant trend and look to take short entries from that side of the market, giving him the largest return. The trader could have been doing that from the open this morning, as the break had become clear in the smaller time frame charts.

The market may be in a position to mount a counter trend rally. It is in a parallel channel at the lower end of its trading range in the smaller time frame. This rally could come early on in Fridays session. Until it happens we don’t know how to play that, (If this, then……..) Do you see what I mean.

If we get a momentum shift to the upside early on tomorrow, I see a minimum 10 point S&P rally. Notice again that I said “IF”.  It is a conditional statement and represents something that has not happened yet. In addition, “IF”, after the first hour of trading we don’t get an upside break, but instead continue the break, the selloff could be just like today, back to back. Traders need to be prepared for both scenario’s, just in case. That said, it appears that there will support at current levels at least for that bounce of 10 points plus.

http://www.screencast.com/t/wVzrqS1jdbI8          Daily S&P 500 cash market “still shot”