Posts Tagged ‘trading range’

Market Rally Feels & Looks Strong

Sunday, September 5th, 2010

This post is for Friday’s market September 3rd, 2010 as the market closes strong into the close and sits on major resistance.

That is how it is right now, as the market is sitting on big resistance in the 1100 area.  This is like a self fulfilling prophecy, as this was the likely target area we were to trade to from last weeks markets lows. This was clearly defined in my blog postings with a few warnings to help us keep our eyes open.

We have come all way up to this temporary resistance level and now what?  In Thursdays posting, I had said it would be natural and normal for us to trade back down for just a spell, until a likely breakout above the 1100 area gets taken out. I wrote that just before I saw the new readings on investor sentiment, with my alert at the bottom of the post. Given that development and the fact that the market closed strong into the close for a second day, I would have to give a bias to the breakout occurring right here from this level without the pull back. If that happens and it is looking likely, the next area of major resistance is about 400 Dow points higher and a bit more for the S&P to around 1160. It could be a few points more or less, but this area is where we will likely go to very quickly if the 1100 area is broken to the upside. I would have to give it about 80% likely it is going to happen from here. Either case, if we pull back to the middle of last weeks trading range, I still believe that we are going to see higher prices and that likelihood is +90%.

So, either way, I think we are going higher, which is good news for the bulls and those who want to try and get a better price on their equities. I don’t think we are in a long term hold here, but again, all of this is just my opinion and take it with a grain of salt, so to speak. Their is another level I do see as the next level of resistance and could then be the ultimate trade to level. This could take several months to complete and do believe we do have a pretty good chance for this to occur. For right now, I see it as the most reasonable and likely place for prices to travel and that would be, S&P 1245 or so. It could be a little higher, but this is just a touch light, just in case it comes up short.

Over the weekend I showed my students how I had come up with all of these price targets and projections as so many of them have been right in the past. They may not be right in the future but we can only base our price projections from where we are today and given the current trading environment.

I had showed how I came up with the short term top in the S&P in May of this year and how we were able to spot the March 2009 lows in the Dow exactly. There is nothing out there that is absolute, but we use what we have to give us the best possible projections and go with it until proven wrong.

That is how we are to look to the short term swings within  the trading day. Each day, the market gives us clues as to what it will do next. We need to be able to read the signs and clues and exploit those readings, thus giving us the advantage. We need to have the advantage or trading edge so when we put on the trade, it is not a gamble, but a very high percentage trade. If you don’t poses a consistent statistical advantage, placing a trade long or short then just becomes a gamble.

If a trader does not have a set established trading method that posses a statistical advantage, he is just gambling. That was a hard one for me to deal with at one time, as it brings into play many other moral aspects or trading at all. The only way around it, is to be one of the “investors”, (is a better word) who has done the hard work to bring him or herself to the point that they consistently are able to posses the trading advantage over the other traders who do not see what you see or have done the work.  Having a proven trading method that looks at all of these things is what is needed.

I am a firm believer that all traders need to learn and understand how and why the price moves, or better stated, price action. It is there that all of this comes together. Knowing and having a solid and often unconventional way of looking at support and resistance that is not obvious to the masses, is essential. With that, you will see things that you never knew existed and come to be able to trade any trading instrument in any time frame with a trading advantage.

I don’t often show much of any of this in my blog writings, but on occasion I do show just a little. The market posses a natural rhythm that we all need to be in tune with. Its all found in the price structure of each instrument. I remember a movie called “National Treasure” with Nicolas Cage. In that movie their were clues and signs that lead them and their pursers in the direction of the treasure. The things that were obvious were really of no value, but the unconventional idea’s or signs that kept them thinking and expanding their minds is what lead them to the treasure.

Trading successfully is similar to this. The answer is not always so easily seen. If it is, it will probably not be of very much value. So, we need to look beyond what knowledge you now may hold, to help unlock the secret of profitability. Do not forget we can often be our worst enemy from reaching our goals, so controlling things like greed is essential. That is a hard one for many of us, but we need to ask ourselves, what we want from the markets. To make a steady income or try and get rich as fast we as we can. This is a process that first starts with that question.  What do you say?

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Fridays trading below. I had an OK day, but I did struggle just a little as I got caught up in some slow chop, which caused a few small losses. This could have been avoided by trading the early open, which we saw some easy and obvious trades with good moves tied to them. I was getting a bit tired as the session carried on and did have a bit of indecision on a few trades but I snapped out of it and did pretty good overall. It wasn’t a perfect day, but that is how it turned out, the good the bad the ugly. That is trading. Enjoy the rest of the long weekend.

Market Turning Point Coming, Get Ready !

Tuesday, August 31st, 2010

Today is Tuesday August 31st, 2010 and I really think tomorrow is the day, we rally.

I have taken things a little on easy side lately, trying to enjoy the summer days as they are here. I have wanted to write and keep up with my blog, but the calling for time off was just a little greater. So, to those who are loyal followers, I apologize.

In today’s trading action, I was on pins and needles as we were coming into the close. I kid you not. I saw few things that told me, “if we did not rally up as we did, there was trouble for tomorrows open”. I remember it clearly, as these thoughts were traveling through my mind. I looked at everything and it all said, rally or die. We rallied at the close and I felt revealed.

The reason is, traders pick up on were the close of the day is. If it is on the lows, it sets the tone for many scenario’s. Program traders, Black Box traders and on and on. This would have had very negative signals for the coming weeks. There is a path down to S&P 945 and I did not want to see that happen. I am a long term “Bear”, just to let you know, if you didn’t already, but I just don’t think it is going to come when everyone else thinks it should.

We are going into the worst two months of the year historically, September and October. I can not tell you how many bad periods I have seen first hand with these two months as they are in-front of us. With that said, their is always the exception and what a better time then now for it.

This market has been very tricky lately in trying to fake out those who believe they have it figured out. It has waited to the very last hour of the very last day, to make a lasting impression on those who believe we are about to crack on down to lower levels from here. I tell you know, I could be wrong as I have stated before. We have not as of yet cracked as those who say we are going to, but have waited for the last 6 days in a very narrow trading range to either prove me right or wrong. It is just an opinion and is not going to change one dollar from my personal bottom line, but, I would like to get this call right in that I see everyone biting on the short trade right now and would like to be in the minority to better prove them wrong and share my insight why to those who follow my writings.

OK, I think you know I am short term bullish from here and am expecting a big rally as of tomorrow. I can’t see this going another day. It looks so right for a rally and or a crash. I can’t be blind to the fact I could have it wrong, even if I don’t think so. I always need to look to the other side. Even in a short term trade, you have to look to both sides. If you don’t, you could be blinded to what you want to see, rather than what actually is.

I made that one mistake today. I was tired in doing a phone session with a potential client and did not take a break, but just stayed at the screen and I started to see what I wanted to see. Almost like a mirage, and suddenly it appeared. In my delusion, I created a scenario of what I wanted to see, not what was. This can happen to any of us and it is not the first time or won’t likely be the last time.

By being over stretched and not fresh and or having little ability to exercise “The Power of Concentration” I am not surprised I tried to create a trade in my own mind. If you watch the video below, you will see the trade I was talking about. Looking at my trade indicators, you can clearly see that I really making a stretch for a long in the place I took that trade.

After I woke up from my slumber, I could see I was only dreaming. To take a long trade where I did, I must have been asleep. The other trades were OK, as they were all winning trades, but I could have done better there still. I did have to compensate for a bad entry by a  couple of ticks, which I don’t really like to do. I should not be complaining as I had 5 of 6 and ended up very nicely for the day. I had one loss for 5 ticks and multiple points profits. 

To finish up, I see this market has gone 6 days in a very small range and it is wound up so tight, it is just waiting to pop. The question is, which way. With the market sentiment so negative, I have to give the bias to the upside and say the surprise is going to come in with a big rally. I mentioned a few days ago that 1100 is strong resistance and we will likely trade up to that level pretty soon. Backing off from their a little is normal and a little expected, but if a break above 1100 S&P futures kicks in, we will see higher prices on top of that. So everyone knows what I am looking for, but will it happen. It is not the popular opinion right now and I am OK with that. Either way, I will make my daily goals when I trade because I will be reading current price action. That is the basis for my trading method. All trade indicators are secondary. That is a real big point and is exactly as stated. With that said, I am happy to have the trade indicators I use of which I only show a very small part of them as in the video.

I wish all my readers the very best. If anyone has comments or wants to ask questions I am very available to answer and would be glad to do so. Even if it is not about my trading method. Just ask and I will respond to you ASAP.

Vince

The Trading Range is Set, Hold On

Wednesday, June 9th, 2010

Today is Wednesday, June 9th and the market is hoovering in a neutral stand, waiting upon its next move.

The general stock market moved higher only to be met with “Price Rejection”. That would be its inability to overcome overhead supply. It did make a run at it, of which I saw it coming. I also saw the the exact resistance area and started to lighten up as I came closer to my overall target area in today’s trading. I was looking at S&P 1075 as a destination point for the last rally. Once hit, the high was reached for the day and down she went for a -20 S&P point reversal,  closing -6 points on the S&P and -40 points on the Dow.

Well, the market held up over the last few days and that is a good thing. I don’t have a lot to say today, only that we will need to stay above the previous lows recently set to keep this rally alive. That low was established during yesterdays intra day bottom.

The market will turn very negative and continue its bearish move to much lower levels if yesterdays low gets taken out.  The downside line in the sand has been drawn. On the reverse side of that, given the fact that the market was able to rally off that very key support area, is saying there is a real good chance we could make it out of this, at least short term.

The sentiment numbers came out today, but I won’t know what they are until Thursday evening. I will update at that time.

To recap, I see big movement on the break of today’s high of 1077.25 and yesterdays low 1041. That gives us 36 S&P points to play with or 360 Dow points. I will be watching both of those numbers for an increase in trade volume and trade velocity.

Yesterday I posted a live video on U-Tube of the days action and is in the video gallery on my website. I will post a snap shot of the days results as well as today’s results below. Two real good days.

My first two trades today were for small losses on small size, then hit a nice small trade short and reversed my position at my original sell stop point, something I don’t usually do, and the market kept going where I added on for larger size, once the trade showed its real intentions.

The two charts are in my middle time frame and are exactly reflect the price action in relation to my smaller tick chart size. It is easier to post more bars and show more of the day this way.

Yesterdays trades, I  just started to take the small trades were I could. I think I took 3 or 4 one point trades until I saw a big move coming and got a little anxious and jumped the gun. You can clearly see based on the my custom trade indicators that I went in way early and was only asking for trouble. I did switch to my T-1 short term model for a tighter entry, but it did not help as the market was just not ready. I wanted to pull the cake out of the oven before it was cooked, not a good idea. As I state in my notes on the screen, I had the right idea but was early and a bit anxious. I hug in there and was not afraid to load up on what I originally saw and milked the trade for  about a 10 point S&P move. I followed it up for another little topper after that, a great day.

I have the trades marked up on both screens as to where the key turning points are and it is just awesome, as the turning points were crystal clear. You just need the courage to trade them and you will and would have been sitting pretty. I would bet in yesterdays market if I tried to trade the whole day, I could have gotten at least half of the 75-80 points the day showed in available points. That would be 35-40 points of profit in one days session.

It would take a lot out of me to keep up the concentration one would need to do that, but I can see it is possible. For every point in the S&P emini futures it represents $50 dollars. If you trade 3 contracts that is $150 dollars per point x that by 35-40 points and that is a little less than $ 6k in a single day only trading small size. I totally believe in a session like yesterday, that it could have done that. I just don’t want to work that hard, as it is possible I could loose concentration and make mistakes. It is safer to trade for a modest sum and move on.

Usually, I only trade for 2-4 points with an occasional windfall day, like yesterday. Today was somewhere in between, but would call it above average for sure. As I mentioned earlier, we can always make mistakes, not trade our plan and or method and let emotion take over. You can not expect to do your best if you get anxious. I have a tendency to come in a little early at times and those are the trades that I get stopped out. I and or we, need to remember to let the trade come to us. If you look at yesterdays trade chart below, you will see I totally jumped the gun. The trade indicators are there to help you not get out in front of yourself, to hold you back until you have the momentum on your side.

Entering to early most of the time is an emotional response of “fear of lost opportunity”. I have blogged about that before, but you can see a clear example of it in the chart. I can try and justify it any way I want, I blew it. I am not perfect and know that I can always do better.

Being a good trader is not about being perfect, that will never happen, but if you can keep your mistakes to a minimum and take advantage of the gift trades the market occasionally gives you, you can do well. Consider this motto on occasion as well.

Get in – Get out and – Be done.

Trading Volume & Trading Volitility

Thursday, March 4th, 2010

Today is Thursday, March 4th and the markets were contained as they closed slightly higher +4 points on the S&P.

I had thought that we would see what I call a containment day or you can say, “an inside day“. What that means is, the market traded inside of yesterdays trading range. This is what I said was likely to happen for today and a general containment inside the Wedge Formation shown from yesterdays Dow chart.

One thing that I am not seeing right now is volume. That can be a little worrisome for the bulls out there. As we rally on light volume, it shows a lack of conviction to buy stock.

Trading volume for a day trader is very important, without it, you get little movement and limited opportunity. With it, and you have the market swings that can take your account equity up quickly. Often times, it takes a catalyst to drive the market, good news or bad. So, what is a trader to do as he looks for opportunities and how should he approach the day.

Let me give you one idea to think about, in trying to decide what kind of day we are going to have. If you take the average trading volume of contracts traded for the first 15 minutes on the S&P Emini futures over a set period of time, say one month or better and come up with a volume figure. Then going forward, compare that average opening volume to the past average volume and you will see it in one of three ways. It will be above the average, below the average, or the same as the average.

If it is above the average, most likely the days trading range will be greater than if it was not. The same is true in reverse. If the trading volume is lighter during the first 15 minutes of trading, it is likely that the trading range will be somewhat contained. You don’t have to make a science out of it, but if you can observe that the volume is very heavy on the open, it is likely you will see a lot of opportunities to trade for larger point returns going forward for the rest of the day.

If you take today as an example, you will see that the contract trading volume for the S&P 500 emini futures was very light during this first 15 minutes of the day. That helped then to set the precedent for the rest of the session. The trading opportunities were very limited and the range was very narrow. This is just something to keep in mind going forward, as it may give clues and bring perspective to your expectations of the day.

Trading volatility means opportunity, with low volatility, you get reduced opportunity. If you are approaching the market with high expectations of a big day and they don’t happen you are out of sync with the market. Day traders observe the price action, or that is what I feel they are supposed to do and trade accordingly.

If you are positioned to take 3 or 4 points out of the market, but you only see three or 4 ticks instead, you have only a few options.

1) Don’t trade at all and just wait. That used to be a good strategy, going into the afternoon session but the volume cannot be counted on to come back. We are to often seeing only modestly light volume increase after lunch period.

2) Bring your expectation down so that you can take advantage of what the market will safely give you. If it safely can give you 1 point, can you take it?

I know everyone has there own style to trade and that may not be your thing, but I have no problem with it, only because I can trade with a small stop and do it successfully. Many cannot do that so, they are left to be much more selective and wait a lot longer for the trades.

That is fine, if you can do that. Many traders can not and end up taking  non method trades for the sake of trading while they wait. This creates over-trading and can be defined as putting on a trade without having the trading edge. Taking 10 trades or more in a day is not a problem, if you have the trading edge present in those trades. When you lose the edge, Get Out. Don’t wait to be stopped out, protect yourself and your equity.

With all of that said, I hit my trading goal today fairly easily, but I did have challenges. The challenge was to start trading during the slow New York lunch period. I know this is not the best time to trade, but getting prepared for the market open is difficult as I live on the West Coast. To properly prepare, I would need to get up a 5 am. That has been my weak spot, because I am a night person, whats a trader to do? Well, I guess I am doing it.

There are dangers in trading during this slow period, but they can be overcome with precision entries and modest expectations. My first two trades had no follow through to them, so I quickly lowered my expectations and took the very modest moves the market gave me. You need good timing and you need to know how to trade in this environment. (Sniper Day Trading)

My first two trades were the only loses I had each for -1 tick. After that I had several small gains which added up nicely for the session.

Beginner’s Info

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Before you start trading, it is very important that you know what it is that you are doing and what you are trading. It is similar to trading stocks but at the same time, very different. There is a definition of terms for those who need to know the basic language in the glossary.

We are trading the S&P 500 E-Mini Futures contract. This represents a shadow or a mirror of movement in the S&P 500 cash index. Traders and institutions across the globe buy and sell contracts with each other. For many, it is a hedge against a portfolio they own and sell contracts equal to the value of their portfolio as a form of insurance. Pension funds and large institutions do the same as well as mutual fund managers.

They are buying and selling protection in the form of contracts against the Index. To do this they need a very liquid pool of futures contracts to draw from and that is where the trader comes into the picture. He or she may not want to hedge their portfolio, but may want to speculate on the future direction of the market. Traders are an essential ingredient to offer the liquidity that the institutions need to quickly move into and out of the market.

I once heard a man ask a trader what he does for a living and his answer was, “I am an asset liquidity provider, how about you”. That statement is true. That is what we do.

Each contract traded represents 50 times the current value of the index. Lets say that the Index is 1000, a nice round number. Multiply 1000 x 50 = $ 50,000 and that is the value of one contract. If the index was trading at 1100 the value of the contract would be $ 55,000. You need to put up a deposit for the right to buy and hold a contract. If you hold the position over night, you will need about $ 5,000 deposit. If you close the position at the end of the trading session the margin will go down to about $ 1,250 for one contract.(day trade margin)

At Sniper Day Trading, we trade for a modest daily goal most days, between 2-4 points. The S&P 500 emini futures trades in ticks. There are 4 ticks that make up one point. Each tick is $12.50 and since there is 4 ticks to a point, one point is $50, 4 x $12.50= $50. If our daily goal is capture 2-4 points we are trading for $100-$200 dollars per contract traded. With an opening balance of $5,000 you could conceivably buy or sell 4 contract. So to use the example above, 4 contracts traded x 100 to 200 each contract, you would be making $400-800 per day.

We don’t recommend that traders start trading the maximum, but start at the smallest and work your way up. It is possible, averaging 2 points per day that in 4 weeks you could be trading at 4 contracts and bringing in the kind of money above. You can stay at that level or increase it over time. What ever you feel comfortable with. You may decide to go slower and reach that level in 2 or 3 months and that is OK. The main thing is averaging that 2 points per day over an extended period. It is very possible, people are doing that and more all over the country and you could to.

On the main page we talk a lot about discipline, patients, and focus, all essential things for reaching your goals. But first you need to know how to trade. I offer that in my course and if you decide to become part of the family, I will see to it that you understand my trading method and how to apply it.

When we put on a trade, we teach how to enter at just the right moment as the momentum will carry you higher or lower which ever way to you are trading.

Make Money as prices go up or down

Which brings me to my next point. You can make money in either direction, up or down. Often, prices go down a lot faster that they do going up. The principal works the same. When you put on a trade that is going up, we would call that a LONG TRADE and when you put on a trade that is going down, we call that a SHORT TRADE. We teach how to take these trades in a clear concise way. No gray area.

When we take a Long Trade, we Buy to Open / Sell to Close

When we take a Short Trade, we Sell to Open / Buy to Close

There is always someone on the other side of the trade to take the position, the price is the only thing that changes. If you sold the futures or “Shorted” the market at the S&P price of 1091 and you covered the trade by buying it back at a lower price at 1088, you just made a 3 point profit of $50 X 3 points = $ 150 dollars per contract traded.

Remember that each tick is broken up in quarters and 4 quarters make up 1 point. You can think of it like 4 quarters make a dollar, but in this case, it makes $50, because each tick is worth $12.50.

Commission cost for the transaction varies on the broker but the typical costs is about $2.00 to buy one contract and $2 to sell one contract. The complete transaction is called “round-turn”, buying, then selling.

TIME CHARTS

When building our charts on the screen, we use tick data. Tick data is different than time data. Trading in a one minute bar chart is the smallest increment of time that you can use. When using TICK CHARTS, you can create a much more detailed view of the trading history. It is through this trading history that we are able to draw up our entries in this much more detailed view. It allows us to enter at the exact point, Sniper Style, to hit our mark. Get in, Get out, Get done.

We teach precise entry and exit points using these tick charts and with the ongoing training you will always see the method applied to current data.

Above, is an example of a Candle Stick Chart. These are typical setups for us, as you can see the entries short and then long. The first trade was good for 1 to 2 points and the second good for the same or higher.

I usually follow bar charts that have an open, high, low and close to them, as shown above. Some people like using candle stick charts and that is a matter of preference. Candle charts have a wider body and make it a little easier to see the open, high, low and close, but using tick charts, often we need the screen room to see the complete patterns developing as well as one feature that I use to help visually see the change in direction. Often, this change in direction matches the other components of the method which helps to confirm our entry, LONG or SHORT.

Different Types of Orders

There are three main types of orders used in our style of trading. There are “Market Orders”, “Limit Orders” and “Stop Orders”. I use all three of them at different times for different reasons and explain it all in my course and mentoring program.

A market order, in our style of trading is typically used to close positions that are still open. Others may use them to start a position but we don’t often do that. It better serves us to use this order when we have an open position close to our stop loss and decide it is better to close the position and the protective stop at once. Both done with one click of the mouse at the same time.

A “Limit Order”, is an order to buy or sell at the specific price that we specify. See the example below. There is a blue column, the “Bid Size” and red column, the “Ask Size” This is where I place my orders. By clicking inside the blue column, price 1091.50, I am willing to buy at that price only. When contracts become available from the other side, the red column, my order is filled and I will have gone “Long the S&P emini futures market”. The opposite is true for “Selling Short”. This is an example of buying or selling with a “Limit Order”.

The last order type, “Stop Orders”, are usually used to protect a trader from incurring a greater loss than what he has predetermined ahead of time. For me, it is 1 point or less on all trades I put on. ($50 dollars per contract traded or less). That is the maximum loss and is set automatically at the time I click the order to buy. No need to do anything else. You can set predefined limit order targets and they can go up at the same time as your order entry as well. One click of the mouse and the rest of the entire process is complete. You can even stagger your “Limit Order Targets” if you trade more than one contract, say 1 point and 2 points. If the first one gets hit and filled, your stop loss will automatically adjust itself to only protect now the remaining half of your open position. Nothing else needs to be done, but just the one click order entry, period.

This is a very nice feature for those who may lack discipline in placing their stops and targets when and where they should after they enter the market. You can even use the one click feature just explained and use a “Trailing Stop Loss”. This will automatically move your protective Stop Loss up with say a rising market. You can set a trigger point, say its one point. When you reach that one point level you sell half your first position, every tick the market rises from there, your stop will rise by that much, keeping a 4 tick stop position. If the market had moved up 3 points quickly and came back 1 point, you would automatically sell your remaining position at 2 points, locking in your profit. This is because you preprogrammed it to do just that. This again is a great way to capture more profit in a fast moving market all automatically. The only thing that starts the process is just the one click of the mouse. Done. Very Cool. I, most often do it manually, but that is me. I can show you how to set this upin a blink of an eye and teach you to effectively use this feature.

Different Types Of Trading

There are different types of trading. The three most common, “Day Trading”, “Swing Trading” and “Position Trading”. Day Trading is what we do, because we never hold any position over night and make a few trades inside the daily session. Swing Trading, will carry positions over-night and hold those positions for several days. Position Trading, will hold similar trades but for several weeks or months.

Inside of Day Trading, there are several approaches as well. We look at three main tick charts, separated by small, medium and large time frames. Depending on the traders preference, if he or she has one, we can tailor our program to match your current trading style, or mirror what I am using for my trading. In our first meeting together, I will be able to help you discover what is the best time frame for you to start with. Naturally, I will show you how I set up my charts and fully explain the way that I trade. After that, we can go from there.

Scalp Trading

Scalp Trading, is often misunderstood. There is really no set definition that will clearly define it. It may mean one thing to someone and something else to another. That said, what I most often do is Scalp Trade the S&P 500 futures emini market. You can trade other markets like the Russell, the NASDAQ, or the Dow Jones. Each has an emini futures market that is liquid and very trade-able.

When the trading range is very narrow, scalping 2, 3 or 4 ticks, may be all the market safely gives you, without waiting around hours for a good trade setup. This is how I would define Scalp Trading.

With our base daily goal of 2 points or 8 ticks, you only really need say, 1 trade for 1 point and two trades for 3 ticks and that would also cover commissions and you are done for the day.

The setups are the same in the smallest time frame, as compared to the highest time frame, because the market is “Fractal” in nature. That means the same patterns and setups occur in all time frames across the board, showing a trading symmetry that is often seen in nature, below is an example of that.

With my trading approach, we are able to capture what the market is giving us. If the trading range is expanding and large swings are showing up, we can capture those moves for multiple point returns.

Scalp Trading, gives you the ability to save time in your trading, by getting in getting out and getting done with it and on to other things. I don’t trade all day, like many do. This style of trading offers the “Time Freedom” that many covet. Having the Trading Discipline to walk away after hitting our Day Trading Goal is key in keeping the struggle to a minimum.

Getting what you need from the market, is like shopping for fresh meat and produce at your local supermarket. If you try to stock up on too much, it will go bad and you will lose it all. I find the same true in trading, getting what you need for today is a better approach and produces trading discipline, controls greed and keeps the traders struggle manageable. It is a lot easier to get 2-4 point in a day verses 8-10 points in a day. When you are not able to reach this high trading goal, it will produce frustration and feelings of failure can creep in, derailing all of your efforts.

Controlling Fear and Greed

Many traders just starting out, soon discover that they have almost what seems like uncontrollable trading emotions. They find it difficult to stay focused and maintain control. Often, traders find themselves trading with their minds to focused on the money. That is a sure-fire way to slow your progress and often ruin it entirely.

Most traders have gone through this, but most don’t know how to break the bonds of these powerful emotions, Fear and Greed while Day Trading. The good news is, I do know and is very much apart of the Sniper Trading approach. These are things that I uncover and address to my students and take this part very seriously. Starting out, many are not even aware of these dangers, but that is my job to prepare you for any unforeseen problems that can come between you and your modest daily trading goal each day.

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Day Trading and Power of the Mind – Free Book Offer -

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

Hello, Today is Monday February 23rd and the market is still trading while I write this, currently up 3 S&P points.

So far with 30 minutes to go, the market is holding up. The volume has been so slow, just now at 1 million contracts and 30 minutes to go. I can not remember a regular session being that slow, even back during the holidays. With low volume and movement, you have less opportunities to profit. That is why I feel it is important to be able to scalp a few points out of small trading ranges. Often, that is all the market is going to give you. You can always elect to sit it out and wait for things to improve but if you don’t have patience enough to do that, you may be tempted to trade in an environment that you are not trained for. The best course of action is getting trained for it, so that if you find yourself in it, you will know what to do and how to do it.

Scalp trading is not for everyone, that is true. It can be better for some to wait for moves that are for several points, but as I said, you don’t always know when they are coming. If you blow your opportunity, you may have to wait now for hours. Do you have the patience to do that. The answer for many is “No”. That was and is my answer too. I don’t want to wait for two hours to take one trade and wait another 2 hours for the next trade. I don’t need to hit a 3 to 5 point trade to come out on top. Three one point trades counts just the same and with the trading leverage tied to the emini’s, you really don’t need much. To me, two to four points per session is plenty. If you can average just the two points per day, that is 40 points in a trading month. Some days you will have more points and that can make up for the days you get stopped out for the day. I have a 4 S&P point daily stop out point. This ensures that if I am having a bad day, that I don’t do any really bad damage to my account. Getting the upper end of my daily trading goal, is always nice at times. This also protects me from any day that I may come up short.

I was working with someone earlier this morning who was having a little trouble. After our session, he saw things much clearer and had a new sence of confidence, always a good thing. His confidence reconfirmed in the method he had learned and trained on, but needed a little guidance and one on one time. After our session he took three trades for 3 points in an hour. I felt happy for him, but better than one days profits, he has a clear picture of what he is looking for and how to go about getting it.

In todays trading, I took a few trades, nothing earth shattering and could have done better, but it was enough. Trades are as follows; flat, +4 ticks/+5 ticks, -1 tick, +2 ticks/+2 ticks, +2 ticks/+1 tick. The last trade was the only counter trend trade that I took and am trying to take less of them these days. The bigger move came from just above my last trade short and was what I was seeing, but decided to not trade any more and let it go. Tomorrow is another day.

Just a reminder, it may still be a little while before I get the “Free Book on Concentration” up on my website. If anyone wants it now, just email me. It is very good. It pertains so much to trading and what we do, that I am sure it will help every trader who reads it with an open mind and applies its principles. When you start reading the first chapter alone, I believe you will be impressed.

Day Trading has much more to it than getting the entries down and knowing where to exit. You will discover so much more about yourself than you ever thought you could. Some of it good and some of it, not so good. It will bring to the surface all of your weaknesses and expose them, to yourself.  Unless you know what to do with that and how to adjust, you will eventually be working against yourself. Why would we allow ourselves to do this. Well, many traders do not realize how the mental side of trading is always at work here.  The path of least resistance is to do the wrong thing at the wrong time.

Having the mental clarity, focus and mind power to do what you should do and when you need to do it, is imperative while trying to trade the markets. If you find yourself listening to competing voices in your head, second guessing yourself about every trade, not allowing the market to work for you instead of against you, as so many traders end up doing, you will struggle. 

 I too have to watch myself in this area and need to be in the right state of mind when I trade. So, as I have stated before, I am often times talking to myself while I am sharing with my readers. I know what it is that I need to do and want to be sure not to go outside of that. If I am in the red, I am very confident that I will come back, but should not be looking at or dwelling on my past loss at that time. Traders to often, trade with their P&L in mind. It is hard to have the right perspective when money is on the line. The best place to be in when trading, is not having to need the money. If you need the money and the trade, you will be trading from a position of weakness, not strength. That is a mindset and often an economic reality for many. Try and get yourself out of that position and trade from a position of strength.

Mental preparation can make all the difference in the world. I strongly encourage any trader who is serious about making consistent income from the markets, to get my free book. If the book is all you want, that is all I will give you, if you want some advise, I can give that to you as well. (Free)

You have a lot to gain, if you have not considered the real impact, the power of your mind can have on your trading results. You have everything to gain and nothing to lose from asking for it. I have sent it out to some who have requested it and will report back here on how they liked it and how it has made a difference in there trading.  

So, until then, Good Trading.

Controlling Greed and your Trading Emotions

Wednesday, January 13th, 2010

Today is Tuesday, January 12th and the momentum has slowed the last two days.

Todays Index’s were down across the board, with the NASDAQ getting the worst, followed by the S&P -10 points and the Dow, -30 points. We are very close to the extended March 6th trend line support on these index’s. If that support breaks, it will be the first clue that we may have turned the corner on the rally. But still it remains intact and all is well.

As I had thought, today we saw the first signs of life in the futures market, with volume coming in at over 2 million contracts. Just what I was saying yesterday, that 2 million contracts traded in the emini futures market is considered good volume and we hit it today. It has been a long time, probably longer than a month with this kind of volume.

As day traders, we need volume to push the market around, otherwise it becomes more difficult for traders to make money. It is always easy for them lose money and with low volume, bingo, you are there.

Most traders do not know how to trade in shallow trading ranges and end up getting beat up pretty bad. But if you know how to Scalp Trade this market, taking a little out of the middle, you can survive in any kind of trading environment. That is not easy to do for most people and there will be those that say it is foolish to try. Probably because they were not able to make it work for them. Traders are doing this all across the globe and they are taking it from those who think they can.

Some people only scalp trade and that term can mean different things for different people. To me, taking 2,3 or 4 ticks, will qualify as a scalp. Others will call taking a 2-4 point profit on the S&P emini’s, a scalp. So, the term is used widely. If I can make a profit on these small trades while keeping my losses to an equal amount 1 to 1, I am doing OK, because my percentage is pretty high. You need to have 60% or better with the better being more like 75 and up.

When I trade, I look for both kinds of trades. If the market will give me an extended move, often I position myself to capture it. At times I take half off early which gives me the extra ability to ride the move out. It’s a good way to trade.

In my trading today, I did not do as well as I had wanted, but I had a few bigger trades to cover myself. I came in late in the day and missed some big moves short. Overall I think a came a little short of my daily goal because of commission, but close. I had 10 trades 5 gains 5 losses, but had a few trades for higher point returns. As I said I was off. Lack of concentration and I did not take a break from a training session I had with a student.

My timing and concentration was off, with the first two trades as loses. They were not good entries and it cost me. I could have avoided  some of the lose by closing the trade out early as I normally would do once I start to lose the edge. To me and my method, the Trading Edge, is clearly defined and when I lose it, I need to get out, often avoiding  my full stop out of 1 S&P point. I start out with a 1 point stop on all trades, but it almost instantly goes to three ticks when I get one tick of movement in my favor usually when I am in scalp mode.

Often times I am able to catch trades for several points as I did last Friday with a 4 and 5 point gain. It does depend on the price action and what the market gives you. If the markets clamed up and its daily trading range shrunk, many traders would suffer, because they only know how to trend trade. When its choppy, they often stay out, but only after they got burned by non directional non moving market. Being able to Snipe or pick off a few trades makes life a lot easier, providing that you can do it. You end up having the ability to pull a few points a day out of the market, no matter what kind of market you have.

I will make a few comments from where I left off yesterday, about needing all three components to become successful as a trader. It does not matter what you trade, these are things everyone in this business needs.

We all need to know how to trade, by following a methodology or system of some kind. Next you need trading discipline, as it is often talked about.  The last thing is, you need to be aware of the forces that are naturally working against you. What forces are you talking about?  Well, for starters, yourself. When trading, there is something called our human nature. That nature says many things about us and our ability to become profitable. It is to often, the unseen things that holds us back from realizing our dreams.                                                                                                                         ————————————————————————————————————————————————-Let me focus on one point and see how far we go. GREED. That is a human emotion that all of us are faced with. We did not learn it, it comes very natural for most of us. I believe, we need to unlearn it or decide ahead of time, by an active decision to not allow this emotion to take root in us. If we can, it will make so many things better not only for our trading endeavors, but in every other area of our lives, good stuff.

The only way we can ever address it, is if we are first aware of it. After that, what are we going to do, to get a handle on it?  This emotion has been one of the leading causes for traders to blow up there accounts.

We need to be content with modest gains when we have them. The opposite of content is discontent and the twin brother of discontent is greed.

Unless you are content with your piece of the market, you will continue to strive for more. In trying to get more, you will lose what you have. Take control of your trading and your emotions. Trade with a purpose and a goal.

Top of Trading Range Fast Approaching

Thursday, October 15th, 2009

Today is Wednesday, October 14th and we did get that rally I thought was coming.

It started out with a gap opening and closed at the high of the day. Often times than not, gap openings get filled. What I mean by that is the price will trade back down to fill in the gap where there was no trading. Gap days can be more difficult days to trade, because the whole equilibrium of the day is thrown off. It can take a while to bring current cash prices in line with the future’s price and that is why there is such indecision and erratic price action. Future contract prices, by nature take their cue from the cash market, in this case, the S&P 500. Seasoned traders know that it is often just the other way around, where the futures will lead the cash market. I rarely look at the cash market, but I do take a peak now and then to get a bigger picture view, that would be 5 minute, 60 minute and daily. It is a good idea to know where you are in the overall price action structure. That can give you insight, but that is all it is meant to do. Do not make a science out of it and convince yourself about any market direction, because it can all change very quickly. This was yesterdays advise and is a good point to remember.

You can see below, the two charts I have labeled “Daily Dow” and “Daily S&P”.  This was a chart that I posted two weeks ago, before the last little drop down. We did end up breaking the rising wedge and pulled down to support. Not so far on the Dow, but right on support for the S&P. The pattern is inside the context of a larger pattern at work and it seems to be playing itself out very nicely. That is why it looked like a rally day today. It is on its way the at least the upper yellow line (top side of the larger Wedge).

Trading is assessing probabilities, “If This, Then That”   Conditional Statements. Well, we had “This” which was an initial minor break, the “That”, is the follow through in price action in the direction of the break. The same is true for the continuation break back to the upside. I have it marked on one of the charts. Again, the “This” is the break out and the  ”That”, is the continuation of the break, as prices gun for the top of the larger formation.

We are not far from reaching a 50% retracement from the top of the market 1564  to the low, 666 and the middle would be, 1120. This is how price action and market rhythm usually flow. Once the down-trend has slowed and starts to retrace from the oversold condition, often times it will move back to the middle of its range. I don’t see anything to say, that this is going to be anything different. That is why I have been calling this move back up to the middle, for months now. Anyone following me knows that is true.

I have a chart of the S&P below, click on the link and notice how back in February, say around 11th or 12th. I remember saying that if that line gets broken, it will be “LOOK OUT BELOW”. Well, it did just that, 1,400 points came off the Dow in just a few weeks and the same percentage in the S&P. The reason I bring that up is because it is that same line which is coming into play now. In technical analysis, “Support Becomes Resistance, When Broken”.  The price action broke through the support and that same line extended but rising out to the right side of the chart will often times act as resistance, as is the case now. In fact it has come up into that line 5 times now and backed off each time. There will come a time when it hits the line and backs off, but will not come back as it has previously. That is also what I have been expecting, but not until the lower support of the formation has been broken. We are not anywhere near that right now, but pushing to the upper limits of the pattern as seen in todays price action. 

Daily price action takes a long time to develop. It is nice to know where you are in the big picture but as day traders, it is not the dominant focus. Positioning yourself to capture small pieces of movement in price action is the name of the game. successful traders usually trade for the money. That statement may seem obvious for many, but to often that is not the case. You may want to ask yourself, “Why are you trading the financial markets” ? Just check your answers, but be honest.

You would be surprised that, many people are involved in trading for a lot of reasons other than the money. I don’t need to take a poll to know the answer to that question, but I would estimate that is so true. The reason why I know that, is because of human nature. Trading successfully is not natural for most people. It is hard and unless you know something about human nature and why people do what they do, you will be at a disadvantage to others who do.

Buying and selling stock is a very emotional process. You will never be able to separate the two. That is a good thing, in that as a successful day trader, you should be able to read other players. This in a way is like, reading the players at a poker table. I don’t gamble, but I know how the game is played and I know players get a lot of information from reading people.  Very similar to reading price action, if you know how. Do you know how?

http://www.screencast.com/t/mKvrLEnMFZQN                Cash S&P Daily Chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/bByMQxRy                           Cash Dow Daily Chart

Screen Shot, S&P 500 Cash Index with Commentary

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

Today is Thursday, October 1st and today we got our answer. That answer came early on in the session.

The sell off came early on in the session and did not look back all day long. Today is what you call a solid “Trend Day Sell Off”.  The whole session was pretty much lower and lower to the close, all one way. You usually get about 3 of these a month.

Earlier in the week, I had talked about watching the market after the rally back up. That was going to set up a pivot point that was going to be critical. If that got broken to the downside, then you will likely get a move down to the lower end of the wedge, around 9300 for the Dow and 1010 or so on the S&P. That is about 19 points more on the cash index. This is one of those conditional situations. If this, then that. Today was the “if this”, in the breaking of the pivot low. The daily momentum had already slowed so it was reasonable to expect the break down. But had the event turned up and broke out of the tight consolidation range it was building, then you could have looked long one more time, but again that did not happen.

Today’s break, told traders to play the short side, the previous rally down and back up, just added more fuel for this break and this time, it did not come back up. At critical turning points the market does not like to make it easy for traders to establish themselves. If you know where the pressure points are, like today, as the sell off got under way, you take a shot at it and hold on.  I could see the wedge building and it looked likely, but I don’t like to get surprised if something happens that I have not thought of. Contingency plans are a must.

As I stated once before, you can not get into only thinking one way. If the move has not happened yet and it appears that a downside break is coming, you still need to see the possibility of any other play. If that play comes alive, you will not be surprised and can then easily adjust your mind around to the long side of the market. It is phycology. You will in essence created a mental block for yourself that could cost you a lot of money, needlessly.

You become to sure that the market is going to do something and when it does not, you then are only seeing what you want to see and not what is actually happening. This can cause you to take multiple stop outs  in a short period of time and that will only start to create a whole new set of problems.

Now that we know that the markets have broken the upper range to the downside, a trader can be looking to the short side of the market as the dominant trend and look to take short entries from that side of the market, giving him the largest return. The trader could have been doing that from the open this morning, as the break had become clear in the smaller time frame charts.

The market may be in a position to mount a counter trend rally. It is in a parallel channel at the lower end of its trading range in the smaller time frame. This rally could come early on in Fridays session. Until it happens we don’t know how to play that, (If this, then……..) Do you see what I mean.

If we get a momentum shift to the upside early on tomorrow, I see a minimum 10 point S&P rally. Notice again that I said “IF”.  It is a conditional statement and represents something that has not happened yet. In addition, “IF”, after the first hour of trading we don’t get an upside break, but instead continue the break, the selloff could be just like today, back to back. Traders need to be prepared for both scenario’s, just in case. That said, it appears that there will support at current levels at least for that bounce of 10 points plus.

http://www.screencast.com/t/wVzrqS1jdbI8          Daily S&P 500 cash market “still shot”