Posts Tagged ‘trading method’

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »

Each Trading Day is New Beginning

Tuesday, November 8th, 2011

See bottom of the article for last weeks trades: I have been having computer virus issues on my desktop and lap tops and had to resort to a third computer. Hope to get back on track with daily postings very soon. Thanks for your patients.  Below is an article I did last week and could not get it posted until today. Hope you enjoy it. Vince

———————————————————————————————————————————————–

As a trader, each day is a new beginning. If we have the ability to separate the past from the present and then remain neutral on into the future, than that is a great statement. That is usually not that easy for most people, no matter the profession, but is it possible?

The answer to that is a big “Yes”.  It may not be that way for most people and thus traders, but it still remains a very strong possibility for those who can find within them the ability they need in order to do just that.

This is internal strength of mind to follow through with what YOU KNOW to be true. We may think many things but when we know something is true, that is were conviction comes from and when it is found.

The reason that is so, you act without hesitation and act knowing that the likely future outcome will take place as foresaw. That is a gift for those who get that far, but its not going to automatically take you where you want to end up.

Getting to where you want to go as a trader takes a little more. You need to act on only that which you KNOW TO BE TRUE and just leave the rest for the speculators. That is then what they do, but not us. The stock market is not random as some would suggest. It is a living and breathing entity and is made up of the collective minds of millions of people across the entire globe.

If you were to catch a closer look inside and see what they were thinking and planing well in advance, would that not be worth the price of admission. Traders leave a trail behind them as they make there way through the arena. Those worthy of interest, will rise to the top of the list. Where some gather, more are drawn and then you have a fully invested market filled with a multitude of idea’s.  Those idea’s that rise to the top are the ones that control the field.

Trading is a very interesting world. It has a strong allure, but its rewards are reserved for those that can go beyond the masses. What does it take to arrive at a place that sets you apart from the rest of the world?  It takes the ability to see things not as they are, but as they will be. You need to be a bit of a visionary in that, seeing where the price is likely to go, based on very similar conditions from the past. The past will always lend insight into the future. Those who fail to learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. Where have we heard that line before?

This can all be summed up with what is called a trading method. If you don’t have one, you need one. You can not leave your action up to random events, as they will only influence you to and fro, leaving you lost and confused. If you are new to trading and have not found that place yet, it may be coming soon. No one gets untouched from the sting of the markets as you learn.

Maintaining mental control as it relates to ones trading plan is the key for continual trading profits. If you are not sure, and have doubts, don’t trade. You should practice longer and apply the continual trading lessons that are sure to come your way. In time, your exposure can give insight, but not having the mental fortitude to follow through will just as well leave you as helpless as the one who does not know.

Get with the mental side of the game and gird up yourself to be worthy of the challenge, as not doing so will only leave you morally defeated. It all starts with a thought. You have the power to control your mind and make it follow your lead. If you leave yourself open to every inviting suggestion, then you will be sunk.

We as humans are predictable just the same as successful traders who are collectively able to move the markets, we have the ability to think as the masses think and look to do the opposite. Those results are often very duplicatable and what successful traders look for, thus giving them the undeniable trading edge.

Look for the trading edge as a large part of it is within you.  Trade well, trade committed !

————————————————————————————————————————————————

Below is last weeks trades missed and today’s late trades, no trading yesterday.

Tags: , ,
Posted in Trader Coaching | No Comments »

As a Trader, Thought and Performance are Equal

Wednesday, October 12th, 2011

Today is Wednesday October 12th, 2011 and we saw another continuation of the powerful rally taking Wall Street by storm.

We added another 10 points on the S&P and another 100 points plus on the Dow. We did end off the highs by about 19 S&P points as the high of the day was 1216, a long way off the low of seven sessions ago.

I can say, that I really don’t think that we will be seeing the recent lows any time soon as the bears in this market are getting killed and expect more of the same over the weeks to come.  Again, a very unpopular opinion right now as many overnight traders have been praying for a pull back so they can get out, but as mentioned yesterday, this is not one of those markets that you could expect normal, as we are currently far from that.

We may see some pull back any time here, but expect it to be short lived, as the power is to the upside. In the face of all that terrible news two weeks ago, many bought into it. Doing so, only sets traders up for big losses. You can not look at the obvious as the money is made in the unconventional thinking and wisdom.

In today’s trading I only took one trade for solid gains of plus +1.50 points/ 2.75 points/ and 6 points on the high of the last trade in the S&P emini’s. The trade below with other signals before and after.

Today, timing was perfect with only two ticks of heat after the trade. That is one way I measure myself, in seeing how much heat I take on after the trade. It is a balancing act, as being early has its benefits, but waiting and coming in after or with solid confirmation also has its own set of benefits.

===========================================================================

Let me pick up where I left off in giving some commentary from the last post and training. If you want to get the background of what I was saying, go the post before this and scroll down the page to the last half and I will pick it up from there.

To find and make a living from day trading or position trading, it is not easy. Common people with a desire of having gold and diamonds, will not easily find it in the earth if they go on a search for them. If it was easily found, it would not be that special, but it is because of its rarity that increases its value.

The same here is true as traders, with few finding there way to profitability on a regular basis. The thing that gets in the way are two things. The trading method one uses, and the traders ability to get it done, no more, no less.

The next portion of that quote, states that if a person or trader for this illustration, will alter his thoughts, then he can change his destiny by the law of cause and effect. It is a powerful paragraph and says so much, one could write several pages just on that point.

James Allen, then quotes a law, “the law of absolute”, which states, that the one who knocks and seeks will find what he is looking for, as he persists in doing do so. That is my paraphrase and all very true.

If you seek, not just looking on the outside, which is necessary as you do need a solid trading method to build upon, but the seeing really needs to go within a trader, to examine why he does what he does and when. The discovery is there, as to the difficulties that face traders across the globe.

The power of the mind is not to be overlooked, but to the contrary, it needs to be harnessed. If you leave it up to chance, you will become a victim and part of some statistic.

You need to go beyond your natural reaction and instinct and look to the unconventional and less popular. It is hard to do the right thing when trading, but it is very easy to pull the trigger all at the wrong time. Again, this is a point to be sure you have. Doing the right thing, is hard to do and most will not or do not do it.

So, why is so hard to do the right thing?  Why is it that most struggle? This is the big question and the solution is in the answer. Everyone has thoughts roaming around in there mind, some are good and some not so. One trader may be faced with financial pressures and trading is his answer to those problems, but what he forgot to factor in is his foundation of thought, as the more you push for it, the less likely you will obtain it.

Trading for riches, with money in mind can cloud your judgment. Striving for the silver bullet that will make all your other issues go away, often times will only add to the problem. The reason, you are focusing on the problem and not relaxed to the point of making sound judgments. You may not really be in a position of taking on the risk, so that causes you to hold back when you should take a solid trade and then later take the less desirable trades that end up in losses as frustration sets in.

It is in our thinking and mental foundation that the changes need to be made. It is hard to give a one size fits all answer as everyone is different and comes to the trading arena with different baggage. Take out the trash and keep it simple. Relax your mind from outside pressures and just do what you know to be right.

The last part of that paragraph it states, that one needs to not give up and keep going as “he that seekith findith and to the one that knockith, the door will be open”.

A trader needs to seek in only two area’s. One to find something that works and that he can build upon. That can teach him how to read price action apart from indicators but those indicators will confirm what he already knows to be true. The next is to look within for the COURAGE to follow that method and the ability to block out all distractions and change his or her daily routine to the point that supports mental strength and concentration to get the end results.

More in my next posting.

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Trading Psychology | No Comments »

As a Trader Thinks So Is He #3

Thursday, October 6th, 2011

Today is October 6th, 2011 as the expected rally on Wall Street continued, taking traders by surprise.

We did hit exactly the high of the outside resistance I mentioned in yesterdays post of S&P 1160 and stopped. I mentioned this number also early on today in a training session for members and showed them why.

Currently we are at the top outside resistance as I describe it and two things are next going to happen. The first one will exhibit a greater degree of bullishness but both are good. If we break over this current level with conviction the next level up is around another 30 S&P points at 1190. At that time a pull back to the current 1160 area will be in order on our confirmed way to higher prices. The next scenario is a pause likely tomorrow, with a range bound day and a pull back Monday and Tuesday to around the 1113 / 1120 area. Followed up by a move back up and over the the current 1160 area to again much higher prices.

Both of those moves are not what traders would have thought three trading days ago, but it exactly what I had in mind. I did say back then in part that the S&P should stay above the 1120 area and it got flushed out during the next trading day, only to zoom past all of those levels to the amazement of many.

Currently, for a confirmed move, it would be to soon to enter, but a move up off the current level would be the early entry move. A second chance on a back fill from the would be break will likely be offered so there is still time either way to get in on the coming move.

I know this may be a shock for many, but what I see currently is the same thing I see in a tick chart of very small size, no different. Again, it is to soon from that stand point to enter, so hold still and wait.

I don’t want to sound like I am giving investment advise, so all of this is just my opinion and everyone should make there own mind up as to future direction. This is my thoughts talking out loud, though very unpopular I feel in good company.

Above is the one trade I took from today for roughly 2 & 3 points. A very easy trade with virtually no draw down and no waiting for things to happen, just the way I like it. As I mentioned yesterday, we need three things to make this work for us, Time, Place, Energy.   Those are the things present in this trade and that is why it worked when it did. It was the right time, it was in the right place or (space) and it had the right amount of stored energy.

There is a reason and it is duplicatable for anyone who can follow, but that is not always that easy. You have to have the right mindset to follow through with what you know to be true and that will take me into where I left off yesterday.

===========================================================================

Two days ago, I started a series of trainings that will be continuous for the near future. The first one was laying the ground work stating that our souls, not spirit is made up of three things. (Mind, Will, Emotions) Those are the things that define us as who we are. We need to get into all of those areas to find out who we are as it relates to our trading and much of that leads us to the second post yesterday which was tied to our thinking.

“As a trader thinks, so is he” is the title of today’s message. This is a term taken from the Bible, Proverbs 23: 7 , which states, “as a man thinkith in his heart, so it he”.  A famous writer, James Allen, picked up on this and wrote a book nearly 100 years ago about the truths of that statement. It is not really a spiritual writing even though spiritual principals are highlighted, but filled with immeasurable truths based on just that one line.

As a man thinks, so is he; is the basic idea, which is all based on the fact that our thoughts determine the outcome of most everything we do. If you feel you are a failure, you will only see defeat. If you see yourself as always making the wrong the trading decisions, then your next trade will be a loss. It is just that simple. The way you see yourself is what you are going to get. Look past what was and look to what will be. There is the answer and the ideal you are seeking.

Let me quote a section from James Allen, “As A Man Thinkith”;

“Only by much search and mining are gold and diamonds obtained, and man can find every truth connected to his being, if he will dig deep into the mind of his soul. That he is the maker of his character, the molder of his life, and the builder of his destiny, he may unerringly prove, if he will watch, control and alter his thoughts, tracing their effect upon himself, upon others and upon his life and circumstances, linking cause and effect by patient practice and investigation. And utilizing his every experience, even the most trivial, everyday occurrence, as a means of obtaining that knowledge of himself, which is understanding, wisdom, power. In this direction, as in no other, is the law absolute that, “He that seeketh, findeth; and to him that knocketh it shall be opened.” For only by patients, practice, and ceaseless importunity can a man enter the door of knowledge”

This says a lot and can write a pages just on what was said above, but let me start and just continue tomorrow where I leave off.

Gold and diamonds are not easily found it take work to uncover those treasurers. It will take work to search within our souls how best to control our minds, our will and our emotions. Anything of value rarely comes easy but this is the necessary search that  James Allen is talking about.

You can find what it will take to follow your trading method, what ever that is for you, if you make a decision to do so. It all starts with a thought and followed up with a decision to follow that thought, and then the will to see it through. Your answers are within you, search for the truth even if it hurts, that is the beginning.

More to come in tomorrows post.

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Trading Psychology | No Comments »

Day Traders, It all Starts with a Thought

Wednesday, October 5th, 2011

Today is October 5th, 2011 as we continued to see follow through in the reversal from yesterdays big move.

In two days, we have retraced back up almost 2/3rds of the declines within the last 6 trading sessions. Current price on the Emini S&P 1135 as more work will need to be done to get things turned around.  For the short term, 1160, is the outside resistance number that will need to be challenged, which is 25 S&P points away. We will likely see some resistance between here and the high mentioned, but if and when we break over the 1160 number will can expect more behind this rally.

In today’s trading, I just took one trade and it is shown below with other potential turns as marked. It was quick, fast and with little struggle with only a tick or two of draw down after entry. That is just the way I like to see it go down and only happens when three things are present. You need to enter at the right time, the right place and with the right amount of energy behind you to move your position. When you have those three in place, you get the prefect trade.

There were plenty of other good trades before this and plenty of good ones after this, but I took the one when I started following the markets that lined up with those three elements mentioned. Only invested about 20 minutes total in following and trading this session.

Day Traders can trade all day long and some of them do, but if you want to come out on top and not have to put yourself through undue amounts of pressure, then taking a few trades and being done is fine. Not all days are this quick and not all days are the points on the light side, but some of them are and by choice most often.

Trading all day is a personal choice, it is just not mine. I want to enjoy the freedom that trading offers and get to do that often. Living in the mountains, I have plenty of recreation and things to do, but its not all about me. Having time to invest in other things and people is a gift I want to continue to expand on.

===========================================================================

Let me shift gears into what I was talking about yesterday and just try and pick it up from where I think I left off.

The thoughts of a day trader is one of the most important things that surround him as he builds up to the point of entering a position. If those thoughts are in line, then many times they will lend itself to much better results, but if those thoughts are off in any way, a different force will tend to take over.

That force will often go unnoticed until it is often to late. Being aware of these facts will better equip you to tackle the challenges of profitability.

So let me go back to my statement, our thoughts will determine our actions and results. That is a very true and real statement. Let me quote a famous author who wrote over 100 years ago in a book called, “As a Man Thinkith”.  This is the basis for much of what I want to talk about in the coming weeks. The full quote is, “As a Man Thinkith in his heart, so is he”.

The author is James Allen and he was and still is very popular. He wrote 20 different works and died at an early age of 48.

This quote is taken from the Bible, Proverbs 23:7 and is the basis for his work. The practical principals transcends religion as that is not anything of which this is about, but getting in harmony with you and your world.

The way you think about yourself has so much to do with the results that play out, it is somewhat self fulfilling. If you see yourself as a struggling trader who just can not seem to get anything right, then you will get exactly that in the end results. To expect something different would almost be odd. You can only rise to the level that which you see yourself becoming and if it is that of a struggling trader who can not get anything right and always seems to get stopped out on your trades, then you will find a way to only enter your trades to line up with getting stopped out.

At that point, many will blame the trading method, or system they are following and look for something else, when the thing they need to do is look within themselves and examine the deep seeded views they hold for themselves and how they see the challenges they currently face.

If you make a choice to change your thinking and do the things that will produce the results that line up with where you are going, then you will find it within yourself to wait and only enter the trade when you know you have the greatest chance to profit.

These statements are in its simplest form and it will take a lot more to uncover where I really want to take you, but this is the basis for what we want to accomplish in the next few weeks.

I will stop here, but pick up exactly where I left off tomorrow. This way, you will have time to first think of what was just said and how it applies to you, the trader that is trying to find his way through all of this.

Let me leave you with this, as a trader,  if you know what to do, when to do it and why you are doing it, then you have that part covered and need to focus on doing just that. Many know the things mentioned above very well, and can not for some reason still bring it together. There are forces that are working against you that you are not aware of and it is not your fault. That is just the way it is for most, so don’t feel like you are alone. There is help and over the next few weeks we will uncover many of those issues to help you recover to top trader status. It all starts with a thought.

Trade well, trade committed, Vince

Tags: , , , ,
Posted in Trading Psychology | No Comments »

Trading Psychology and the Trader

Tuesday, October 4th, 2011

Tuesday October 4th, 2011;  Hello this is Vince and want to give a quick up date on today’s action. I traded for around 1 hour, picked up a modest daily goal and went deer hunting. I did not bag a deer yet this season, but I still have about 2 weeks.

We did have that market reversal I quietly was expecting, today Tuesday and not yesterday, but did give out a number that the S&P should stay above, 1120 and it broke it in yesterdays market. I did mention yesterday that the Dow should then stay above 10,600 and can see that we did do that today nicely, on a strong close.

Let me keep this part short as I have other good things to share in today’s post as described yesterday. Many think that this market is going to crack and break down. I personally don’t think it is going to happen now. It will come, but just don’t think it is going to come now, when most expect it. The negativity is so thick, I can feel it in the financial airwaves and I don’t even have cable TV, (by choice).  Things don’t happen when everyone is expecting them to happen and everyone expects this market to crash. We will see in the days ahead.

Above, I have a still shot of the day’s trades I took and below that, a video of the whole days turning points and some of the continuation points. These are just the raw signals and some are better than others. Certainly all of of them are not meant to be traded, as all you really need is a couple of trades to come out nicely most days. The key is keeping your gains and adding to them. Said many times, the trading signals are not the method, but only a nice reflection of it. The reasoning and rational behind it is where the power to act comes from and we all know the adage, “Knowledge is Power”. It is true in this case as well.

===========================================================================

Let me shift gears into what I will be covering in the days and even weeks to come. It is something that traders need so badly and intently that it can not be overlooked. Feeding the mind of traders is just as important as feeding the stomach of a trader. Without food, you will die, I don’t need to convince anyone of that, but the same is true in trading. If you don’t feed your mind with the right mental food and thoughts, your account will die, and that is just as real as the other example given.

Let me first lay some ground work to base some of this on. Psychology is a topic that is often talked about in many fields and it is one that can not be overlooked by traders especially.

The word psychology comes from from the Greek word “psyche”, translated, soul and so the term can be described as the study of the soul.

Man has been created in three parts, the body, the soul and the spirit. We will be discussing the soul and which is also made up of three parts. One of these parts is the emotion as it is the emotion that we love, desire, hate, and have joy or sorrow. Another part of the soul is the mind where we have thoughts, considerations, idea’s and concepts. The third part of the soul is the will, through which we make decisions. Our joy or sorrow is something of the emotion.

When we consider or reason, we are using the mind and when we make a decision to do a certain thing, the will is in operation.  The mind, the will and the emotions then are the three parts of the soul.  By the mind we think, by the will we choose, and by the emotions we like or dislike, love or hate.

The above will lay a ground work for us to best lay a foundation to build upon. It is in understanding who we are and why we do what we do that we can uncover our weaknesses and strengths. In uncovering our weakness, we can then take responsibility for our trades and not lend to the theory that the markets are out to get us. That is flawed thinking and can be a simple example of how we get what we most often are afraid of.

In uncovering something as so simple as our thoughts and taking them captive, we have to face ourselves and do something about those flawed thoughts. Left untouched, it can wreck havoc on our ability to reach our goals.

So many traders can not understand themselves and why they do what they do, only to see what they have done after the dust settles in horror.

When traders pull stops because they can not accept the fact that they might be wrong, there are underlying problems in his or her thinking that is at the root of those actions. Again, left untouched a trader will only see looses in his account as an end result and have no idea why.

To often, traders give up there current trading method, thinking that the method is flawed, instead of looking within themselves as described above.

This is what I want to uncover in laying the ground work above. Some may not agree with my assessments of what we are made up of and my description of the soul and that is OK. It is not the spirit I will be discussing, but the soul, THE MIND, THE WILL, THE EMOTIONS.

My source for all the above is the Bible as all of what I said is back up with numerous scriptures. I did not give them as a specific references, but if anyone wants them I can provide that.

As we continue to study this topic and come up with practical applications on what we can do as traders to improve our overall performances, it will become clear that this is an area that is overlooked and in great need of discussion and training.

More to come in the next sessions. Trade well, trade committed.   Vince

Tags: , ,
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Market getting ready for Huge Move

Thursday, September 29th, 2011

Today is September 29th, 2011; The market took off to the upside early on this morning Thursday for a 21 point advance. The bulk of it came from the Globex pre-market session but the S&P and Dow did have about 30 minutes of follow through after the open. That set the stage for a huge drop all the way back down to yesterdays closing price of 1149, back to zero. There it set the stage for move back to the middle at S&P 1160 and yet again a move back down as I write. It is currently 9:18 West Coast with the markets open for a little less than 3 hours so far today.

Above are my trades for today and again missed the early action. Plenty of good potential trades short today as you can see. The signal at the top was just at the market top and secondary trades are as shown. Some of those entries are better than others but that is just the indicator signals.

I trade a solid trading method that has nothing to do with the trade signals although it matches up with them almost perfectly. That is the truth of the matter, as knowing when, why and where to enter all ahead of time before a signal is generated as shown is what is needed and will come as a trader learns how to read and interpret the price as it relates to the method.

There are some good trading programs out there and some worthy of traders efforts, but this is my connection with the trading markets and it is serving me and members well.

Today’s trading went OK, but I totally jumped on the first trade to soon, seeing what the second trade series was likely to produce as it did. Again, the market needed more time to absorb the drop as things settled into position. Again, jumping the gun in seeing where prices were going to go for the short term, 1160, came in to early. I eased in small and added at the same or higher prices, never averaging down, and got stopped out for a little bigger loss.  Feeling confident, re-entered little at a time on the advance for the 1160 target.

I could have avoided the two series of losses, but I needed the trade I talked about in a recent blog, a “no trade”.  That means just waiting for the highest potential turning points as it relates to the method. With an approximate gain of about six net points, the end result was very good.

I traded for one hour and started to follow the market just a few minutes before first entry. The time for reward ratio is very good and more than enough to call it a day. The markets are likely to continue to be active and looking for a market turn around either late today or tomorrow for much higher prices in the days to come. A very unpopular opinion, but one I will hold onto until something changes. A closing low of 1120 on the S&P will make me re-think my position, so until then.

Days back I liked the long side of the market at its closing price of 1128 and think we have a good shot to regain all loss ground from last week and whole lot more. Stay tuned and good trading to all.

Tags: , , , ,
Posted in Trading Turning Points | No Comments »

Great Day Trade Call !

Wednesday, September 28th, 2011

Today is Wednesday, September 28th, 2011;  We saw a pull back in today’s market as was expected.

We now are in a position to really move. Tomorrow is Thursday and would expect a powerful move in tomorrows session and or at the latest Friday. I think the up move will continue as I wrote three trading sessions ago and will take many by surprise.

A confirmation of a continued move up will come in a break of yesterdays highs of 1190. I liked the market long from a closing basis on 9-23-11, three sessions ago, at S&P 1129. I mentioned then and continue to mention now that I think we will continue to see higher prices in the weeks to come. If we break S&P 1120 on a closing basis I will give that call up.

In today’s market I mapped out a move short, from 1172 to a target at 1144, a 28 S&P point move that I thought had a good chance of coming  to pass. I did enter at 1172 for the short but could only hold for 10 points of the move at its best point. You can see in the chart above the entry and exits.

I took three trades today with 2 positive and one small loss for a very good day. You can see the turning points as I usually show them, with good potential at other turns as well.

I have not been up for the open the last couple of weeks, but I have not missed anything that I could not get later in the sessions. Been doing very good lately, with the increased movement but even with days like yesterday, where it could have been hard to come out with such a small range, turned out nice. That is because, being able to read the price action in such a way as to let it tell me what it wants to do and listening, has validity to it.

Some days, it pays to scalp a point or two here and there, but it can also pay off to ride the moves if you can. Today, even though I could see the target at 1144 as per my trading method in a “trade to target”, but in a higher time frame, I was not able to hold for the full move. Scaling out on some, does make it easier, but it is still hard to hold for hours to a target, at least for me. It is a little outside my comfort zone, but it might not be like that for others.

At the end of the day, being up with as little pressure and stress, is the key. In trading for hours, I or any trader gives up something, “time and energy”.  It still takes energy to sit though a move even if you are comfortably profitable in it. How much energy can you expel and still be OK. So, it does take something out of you and again, may not be big deal for others. Just being able to do see it and do it in part is of value as I wrote to my group today. We are all still learning and no one has arrived in the trading world. Becoming a great trader takes work and dedication. Anything of value rarely comes easy.

The best to all, trade well and committed !

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Profit Day | No Comments »

Market Move Taking Many by Surprise

Tuesday, September 27th, 2011

Today is Tuesday September 27th,  2011:  We saw some nice follow through in today’s session early on with a large gap opening higher and holding to yet higher prices into the afternoon. I only traded for less than 30 minutes in the morning, but later in the mid day was pointing out how the market was going to go to 1189 as a top for the last move. It came together perfectly and went a few ticks over the 1189 mark I called out to my group in a training session I had going. From that point, resistance did come in and a very nice short took hold late in the day. All something clearly seen within the trading method.

Early on, the market was in a very narrow range, much different than we have been accustom to seeing, but you will see days like this. Many times, when you have a huge gap opening, you will get a restricted range.  The bulk of the move came in the gap higher which many were not able to participate in except those trading in the Globex pre-market. The gap higher and its accompanying interest coming in after the open, helped to hold up the market and limit any selling. Those that wanted in, took every opportunity to get long at small pull backs and so supported the gap higher. Until prices reached the target high of 1189 my call and actual 1190, there was no longer any reason to stick around as the move was complete and the smart money hit the doors running, thus the large late day sell off.

Knowing that 1189 was an important trade to target in today’s trading would have given you insight in holding for higher prices if that is withing your trading model. I did not want to stick around and be exposed to the market all day and being in the market for only 20 minutes with a modest trading goal in hand worked for me today. I do have an interest in trying to hold for larger targets and many times I do, but I always balance that with time. I value time as a commodity that I can never get back. The more time I can free up to do the things I like to do, is of great value to me and so there is the balance.  /  My trades from today below.

The market as mentioned and as you can see above early on, was a little choppy, but often that is just fine for me. Either way, trending or choppy, the method will perform.  It is us that just need to read it and get in sync with the price action. If you try and impose your will on the market, you will be humbled. We can’t trade for what is not there just because that is what we want. If you take that stand and you can, then you need to be prepared to wait for hours and even days for some.  The market is the market and what ever we want does not matter to it. You either conform to it or wait until you see what you like, but be prepared to wait, because waiting is a trade just like a long and or a short. Many traders have never thought about that I am sure. Waiting and not taking a trade, “is a trade”.  It is a “no trade”, which again is a trade position. You are waiting for your conditions to come together.

For me and the way I trade, I don’t have to wait long, 10 minutes, 5 minutes, 15 minutes, until what I need to see comes together and then it is down to moments for the entry, which is done without hesitation. As mentioned above, that style appeals to me and I like it. I can get a few points from a variety of market conditions, get out and be off. Time off is one of the things that trading is supposed to offer as a benefit the last time I checked. (pun intended)

Anyway, I took only one trade and scaled out for + 1.75 points, +4.75 points, and +2.50 points, an easy day for what could have been a difficult day for many. The second exit I had a trade to target in mind at the top but ended up closing a few ticks off that high.

The trading indicators are very consistent and is my own twisted version of something to give me a near perfect guiding light that reflects my trading method. The trading indicators are not the trading method.  All members  learn how to read the price structure as it relates to the method. Which came first, the chicken or the egg?  Well, that may not be a good example, but which comes first, the price or the indicators?  “SURVEY SAYS________ “   ‘The Price’ .

When you learn how to read the price and enter where you should, at the “Sniper Holes”, then you will not experience very much draw down after entry and is a great way to trade. I could never sit through 3-4 points of draw down on a regular basis while things shaped up for an advance. I think I would die if I had to do that in the hope that it will pan out. That is no way to trade. Members can get there entries down to ticks and that can still produce several points when proven right, which can be often.

Day Trading is not a easy venture, but for those who are willing and see the opportunities, the rewards are endless in offering you the time to do other things that you really love to do and bring a richer more meaningful existance to your life. It is possible for many more traders who find out what it is that they are lacking. It might not be your method, but it could be you, so look within first for your answers, you just might find what is missing.

Best you all,

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in Trading Lesson | No Comments »

Follow up on Market Calls

Monday, September 26th, 2011

Today is Monday September 26th, 2011 and want to do a follow up to the market calls recently made.

First let me post my trades from today and will keep my comments short unlike Friday’s post.

I have been getting up a little later and so missing the early parts of the sessions recently, but that is not always bad. It gives a little insight into what is happening and what may continue to happen as things move along.

I took 4 trades total, 2 were for pretty good gains, with one for a small loss and one nearly flat. An average day with only 45 minutes invested trading and a little better than 50 minutes in follow the market. From that stand point a perfect day.

I gave myself a B- grade as my second trade had poor placement but good overall direction still. The short did not produce within the time it should have and just exited nearly flat. I added on 1 and that one had -1 tick. The last long, I did not get filled at the high tick and exited at my increased stop, close but no cigar. I may have been a little harsh on my grade, but I can’t change that now. An easy day overall with little struggle.

The afternoon session I did live video’s for my group and called out several entries on the way to a 1155 target that I was talking about in my Friday post and in my video’s.

I stated in Friday’s post that we should see 1155 within the morning session or unless we get it in the premarket. I should have took that a little farther as we did see the best part of a 25 point S&P call to 20.75 points a couple hours before the open.

The next part could have pushed that completion to the afternoon session of which we did complete that call right at the end of day with a point or two to spare. I could see that early on and choose to talk about it in a recorded training session with my group.  I showed them all the reasons why that was the likely target for the session and it was nice to see it come to pass.

The next follow up call I made yesterday in regards to the metals was that Silver was going to continue to fall until 26.50 and that would be a great area to buy as a long term hold. Well, the metal did drop an additional 10%+ in just that one session and hit $ 26 and change and reversed course all the way back up to the $30 area. Wow, that was fast.

The point there would be that the market respected the numbers that the method identified with great confidence. I would expect that low to hold even if we back fill a little lower from here. If anyone can buy physical silver at the upper 20’s area, that I believe would be a great long term buy. I expect the metals to do well for the next few years and reaching well over 100 per ounce.

We have some work to do currently to get things turned around which at this time we have not yet done, but am expecting big things in the next 12-18 months. It is a great alternative than  just letting cash sit in the bank and or participating in the Treasury market. A portion of ones assets in metals is prudent even with the volatility. Time here will heal many woes.

As far as the Stock Market in general, I believe we have put in a tradable bottom and higher prices overall I feel can be expected. That is not a popular opinion just as I wrote that on Friday when the market was 272 Dow points lower. It takes a lot of courage to make a call like I did, but when you know what you can expect from the market as per my trading method, which is very unique, it is in reality not that hard to do.

I can be wrong at times and I did in part get the final target on my last S&P call coming up short, but that is trading. I will get many more right than I will get wrong and if one trades with good trade management, partial profits should be taken while on the way to the full target.

This is all in the daily market that I am talking about, of which I don’t really trade but look at and many others do as well. I like to follow and call that out because so many follow it and it is an easy way to point out that my trading method works in various time frames as my members can testify.

The other part is that this is really just for me. To exercise my skills to call market turning points in the daily market, the hourly market and on down to various tick charts. The method works across various time frames and is customizable to the trader who is flexible.

I have more to say, but will save it for tomorrow, until then, good trading to all.

Tags: , , , ,
Posted in Market Call | Comments Off

Perfect Call on Gold & Silver Sell Off

Saturday, September 24th, 2011

Today is Friday September 23, 2011 and we saw the markets stabilize from the frenzied sell off of the last few days.

We never made it to the top of where I thought we might get to this round in the S&P (1245),  but that has a silver lining for the long term bulls.

Be sure to read at the bottom of this post my call on the Gold and Silver sell off made seven days ago, where I did get that one right, spot on.

Before, I start getting into the what is going on with the markets, I would like to recap my trading day first.

I took good method trades except for one that stands out. My third trade was a long and I had no business doing that, a small 5 tick loss, but other than that, the other two losses are just trading losses that happen. My second trade would have worked out OK with my 5 tick stop in place, but closed it out at -3 ticks before I saw prices go to where I thought it might, but that is OK with me as I had reasons for it.

I was really looking at that last trade, where prices really moved up. I could see this one coming as per the method with solid “trade to targets” along the way. I road out the smaller turning points and remained with the plan for that move. The 5 point trade with the first contract coming off, sure was nice to help take the pressure off for the pullback that followed. Adding on at the arrows would be aggressive, and I thought about it, but was happy enough with the slightly higher contract count from lower levels.

Seeing the last trade, with its “trade to targets” helped give me a very good day on the session, a good three times plus my daily trading goal overall.  This was one of those days that like to hit 2-3 times per month that is over and above the regular 3-4 point + daily trading goal that I regularly hit. In this market, it has been a higher overall point total for most days, but the market volatility is offering it, so we take what it offers with as little struggle as possible.

You can see that the trading indicators match up nicely with my entries when I do the right thing, but you can also see that when I don’t do the right thing, you can again spot it as it does not match the indicators.

I don’t trade off the indicators, if you can believe that, but the trading method apart from trading indicators will give me the exactly same spots for entry, but based on a totally different set of method conditions and rules.

Current members can testify that this is true, but I will add, that the indicators will confirm very nicely what we are trying to do, as time and time again, it just works.

The key is being able to trade the method by its set of straight forward rules and conditions.  I would think that it should not be that hard to pick up 3-4 points per session when you follow the trading method and in reality, it is not. The truth is as traders we need more than the ability to follow a trading method. We need to be able to execute it and keep our emotions in check.

Letting ourselves, defeat ourselves, is what happens so often in the trading world, that it is hard for many to admit it to others and more importantly themselves.

When you are able to admit this fact that you don’t know but are willing to learn by doing the hard work to find out how, first to trade a solid method that is consistent with the natural rhythm of the markets and then work on yourself to uncover the hidden weaknesses that we all tend to cover up. It is in exposing those weaknesses that we will get a real sense of progress, that will be lasting and not just a temporary surge of hope that is not founded upon anything of lasting substance.

Jumping around looking for the Holy Grail in trading is not going to be the answer. There are many good trading methods out there and some I am sure work well and there are some I am also sure that don’t.

The point is, if and I would say that one more time, “if”, you have a solid trading method that can deliver what you want out of the markets, then you really need to work on you, from a different standpoint, internally. That is where traders run off course.

I don’t have time in this post to go into those things that can be done to start that work, but I will likely in future posts. I know I have covered some of this in previous posts, but new perspectives, idea’s and skills are constantly being added into the mental side of trading for me and that always gets passed on down to members. So let me end this portion of my post as I can see I went down a totally different path from the start.

———————————————————————————————————————

The recent days sell off has a silver lining to it. We did come up short this go around in my last call for S&P1245, but did still go pretty far along that path. I can admit this last target wasn’t reached in the daily market, but the good part is, this sell off has flushed out a lot of the long term holders of the last couple months.

We have re-tested the lows and do expect the market to hold somewhat in this area to counter with a strong rally back up that will potentially take us to much higher levels than the 1245 number we never saw to this point.

Everyone has become very bearish on this market. There are many calling for a large continued drop below the 1000 mark on the S&P and I can see why, but it can not be that obvious for everyone to get that one right. There are numerous polls out that show the level of bullishness has dropped to extreme levels, especially with this latest drop. I cannot be apart of the “Herd” and agree with them at this time.

I am looking for support and a strong counter trend rally to start sometime this week for again, much higher levels than the 1245 mentioned, so that is the silver lining. I could be wrong so don’t take this as investment advise.

Currently, for Mondays session. I can see a 25 point move up within the first 90 minutes of trading. We could get that in the night session first, but I see a clear path of at least that amount.

Lastly, on September 14th, 7 trading sessions ago, I wrote in my blog that Gold and Silver was going to drop. I said then on Wednesday that by Friday and as soon as tomorrow, (Thursday) we were going to see a sharp fast sell-off in Gold, a minimum of $150 dollars per oz. Then the price was 1826 per oz and that would bring prices to a minimum of 1675 per oz.

Seven trading sessions later we saw NO higher prices and the drop did start on Thursday, the next day and 7 days later we stand at 1639 per oz. completing that call, currently a drop of 187 dollar per oz, over 10% and Silver did come along for the ride as mentioned. I see support in Silver coming in at 26.50 or so and feel that would be a great buying opportunity for a long term hold.

Currently Silver is $ 30 per oz, so we could see a little more to come for the metals and again, I think this will be a spot to pick some up for a long term hold, but that is just my opinion. This would be physical Silver and Gold for that matter. When Silver hits that 26.50 area, Gold will find its level of support at that same time. The target on Silver looks easier to call than the final support on Gold, so Silver will help find the timing and support of Gold, again all my own opinion and not a recommendation for others to buy or sell.

I went way over in this post, but there is a lot going on and lots to say. Lets give the markets some time to see how the next few moves will play out.

As day traders, the daily markets don’t really matter much, but its good to look at and follow for overall direction. I wish all my readers the very best. Feed back and comments are always welcomed. Vince

Tags: , , , , , ,
Posted in Market Call | No Comments »

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »