It was a good thing as seen by those on the street, but it is likely be very inflationary. With the Fed’s target rate for inflation at 2% it seems unlikely that in the real world that real people will experience a rate that low. It has been said, that illusion is greater than reality and maybe that would apply here. Gold and Silver thought as I did with a huge rally in both of the metals.

In today’s trading I had three trades 2 early on and one much later in the day, as seeing the price action was so right for an addition trade and took one, which was good for about 5 points at the top as I scaled out on the way with a larger position. The days trades in the chart below.

I have two charts up on one screen again today and don’t know how long I will keep doing that, but I still am for now.

Monday I talked about the two charts acting as one chart, and so started to show you what I mean in the last few sessions. I did include the tabs at the bottom of my screen as well. This is the middle view as I have series smaller and one series larger. I don’t show everything on my chart as I do have a few things taken off, but the point is, this trading method is driven by understanding and acting on that understanding of price first and indicators confirming.

Price has three components to it. Time, space, energy. We need to see time pass to allow for the build up of energy and while it is doing both of those, it is passing through space. It has to go somewhere and that is does. It gets expressed in the posting of price bars on the screen. The three components work in line with each other adding the fact that support then becomes resistance when broken. It is looking and understanding these concepts to a definable level where one can then apply these principles to make positive trades.

I don’t really like the term winning trade as that has a flip side with losing trades and the whole thing is equated with a gamble. This is not a gamble if you can steer the odds to your favor by using a trading methodology that will continue to express itself in positive out-coming trades, hows that.

Notice the word ” If “  as that is a big word with a lot of meaning. If you can steer the odds to your favor. How does one do that?  It can be done by understanding the three elements of trading and applying those principals to the charts.

That sounds easier said than done, but that is why we all need to continue to research and uncover the missing pieces. Some have all the time they need to do that, but time is money. It has taken a long time for me to piece all the pieces of the puzzle together and have come up with something that works. I show my trades every day to give those who look on a working understanding that this is possible and it does help me be accountable to myself as I do have an audience.

It is my goal to become a better trader than I currently am. I know my weaknesses and am trying to address them. I would love to get a much better trading schedule established, but I seem to trade when I am up and that always seems to be a different time. I was missing the easy early morning trades and stuck with the slow moving stuff during the mid-day N.Y. lunch. Starting a little earlier like I have been trying this week has helped make it easier on me to pick up my modest daily goal of 2-4 points in the ES each day I trade.

So far this week, I have put on 9 trades in three days and all for gains. I don’t like keeping tabs on this kind of thing, but I just plan to trade well, exercise patients and some form of discipline as it relates to the trading method.

OK, that’s it for now.  Trade well, trade committed, Vince

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Day trading in a low market volatility conditions, will test the skills of all traders, as the moves are smaller and trading opportunities fewer. In addition, your level of patients will be tested as well, which brings me to today’s trades.

I was tested a few times with being patient, but I don’t fault myself for playing it safe.  I come to expect the market to react when conditions are right and when it takes to long, that can be a sign for caution ahead. Being conservative can keep your losses small, but if doubt is present, my view is to step aside until stronger conviction is present. The day’s trades below.

The trading method is separate from the trading indicators as they are there to confirm what is already present. That is very important and cannot be over-repeated.

Not every trading signal as shown is a low risk entry and would have passed on some of the previous signals. Using the mind and method to screen out which turning points are best and which are to left behind can keep your balance sheet healthy.

I have been on a little kick about this in my last few post, but it can be misunderstood as I just post the charts and such. I look to capture 2-4 S&P points for most sessions and call that my “Daily Goal”. When the market is really moving and opportunities are present for more, I will go far beyond that goal to help make up for any short falls in the previous days so I can keep pace with that average. It is a good way to approach the management side of your account as this will keep your stress levels down, not having to swing for the fences every day.

Which all reminds me of some trading advice I gave a member today. We don’t have to take every trade we see and we don’t even have to take “Any” trades. If we don’t like it or not sure, don’t feel like to you have to take it. We are not under any obligation to trade and so we should be free to pass. This will allow you to see the hidden gems when they come up. The perfect trades will just show up, without you having to hunt for them.

In market conditions as this, it is very important I feel to be able to “snip” or pick off a point or so on some clear trades. Doing so correctly can add up just the same as one good trade. If the bigger moves are not present, what you are left with is small moves. If you can not find a way to take points out of that kind of a market, then you are now at a disadvantage and subject to market conditions.

For some, this is no problem as I mentioned above, we don’t have to trade conditions that don’t meet our expectations, but I have seen market conditions last for months like this. If you can not make a profit because your conditions are not right, then you are out of business.

That is why being well rounded to be able to take a 1 point out of the market while not risking more than that, is of value. You can always trade the 3-5 point trades or more when they are present, but you are in greater control. Having the ability, even if you don’t need to use it often, will add a greater sense of confidence to any trader.

That is why I have different models setup for different conditions. The one I use mostly, is you could say the all purpose model. I have a higher time frame chart that fits in with the one I show (that is not seen) and they act as a team giving you a full picture as they are interlocked in my own unique way. There is one series of this below and one series of these above the middle one mentioned. All three of these can be used for insight and or trade opportunities to give you results based on market conditions

More on this in my next post….

Good Trading to All, Vince

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It is important to know that the trading indicators I show are only a small reflection of the trading method and do not make up the method itself. The price action is always first and will always be first and is the reason to learn and understand price as it relates to future movement.

We are starting a new trading year and with it are opportunities for those that see them. Every day is a new beginning for traders and that is how it should be looked at. Yesterday may have had trading lessons but the right approach is always moving forward from where you are today. Learn from the past, but do better today is a simple approach but a healthy one.

To many traders get stuck in what they did wrong yesterday and carry it over into what they are doing today. That can be a drag on your outlook and thus results. We all have the ability to “Choose” to make things better, better than it was in the past, but we need to get over the past, as not doing so will result in that mental drag mentioned above.

Choose to make this the best year of your life first, then choose to make this the best trading year of your life. The first one has to come first to allow the second one to become validated.

Taking action that will move you towards your goals is the first step. Think it out on paper, be realistic, and be sure not to get stuck in the dream state. Action is tied to a plan, is the way to start out the year and remember to exercise your mind because that is the “engine” that will take you there. Think about it.

I wish you all the best, Vince

P.S.  A screen shot of today’s trades in case you don’t have time to view the video above. This does not have the large move short I was looking for at the close of yesterday but does include the two nice moves I picked up in today’s session.

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There was some pretty good moves early on in Friday’s session in the S&P’s, but mid day things just went to sleep. I took only one trade and was actively participating in the market for 45 minutes and in the trade for 30 minutes and closed the last of my scaled out position for around 5 points. The perfect trading day, with little struggle and only one tick of draw down for the session.

For Monday’s session, I do think we will see a number I put out for Thursday’s session 1198/97 in the S&P futures but this time it will be in the active session. We hit that number called and got the desired reaction of a instant 22 S&P point rally of which I did say would happen and it did on cue, but do believe we will need to see that number now for the regular session.

I won’t be overly anxious about seeing that come to pass but just think it will come Monday. We are in a pretty good position to hit that in pretty quick fashion but again think we should see some strong buying power lift prices back up and would be looking for an up week in the markets overall. Let me post my day’s trades below.

Currently the S&P futures are at 1210 and 1197/98 is 12-13 points away, so don’t be surprised to see that move early on as it should trade in the regular session to that point. This is just my opinion and not trade or investment advise, so be sure to do your own research and analysis.

I have a larger tick chart here to fit in the whole day, but no trade indicators.  I have been trying to drive home the point that the trading method is not indicator driven and has all its own basis for taking the trades or not. It is hard to not talk about it and not say how things work, so I show something that traders who look on can identify with, trade indicators. They are consistent with the trading method but are not the basis for it. It is all very specific and clear with entries, stops and targets.

I wanted traders who are learning the method to rely on there ability to read the price apart from the indicators and do training several times per week for members to drive that point home. When you put some of the indicators back up, you will see that they confirm very nicely to give you the same exact points that the method will give you on own method analysis. I hope that is clear.

The goal is to get traders to be able to read any price chart and have confidence to trade it if they choose. It can be any style of price charts, candle charts, minute charts, tick charts, point and figure charts, range charts, it does not matter. Again, it can be in any time frame as well.

This can be very valuable when looking at one’s long term portfolio of stocks and mutual funds if you have them. The same would apply to those as well. This is a skill that can be learned. There is more than one way to view and understand the markets and the approach I take is different and not rarely seen if ever in its combination of techniques. It is my method approach that is unique to me, built up over decades, literally.

Many traders use different styles that can include some of the various bar charts as mentioned. Let me reiterate, you can use candle charts, range charts, tick charts, minute charts, as that part really does not matter. I use tick charts and build the screen with more than one time frame to get the chart to view as just one screen and time frame and that is apart of the trading method.

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I could see the S&P futures moving on down to 1197 early on and think that we could see a significant bounce and eventual turn around into next week. This is just my opinion and I will be willing to trade long and or short depending on the days action. This call is mostly for the daily market as I think the selling will start to dry up at the above levels.

In today’s trading I took 3 trades and invested about 30 minutes into my trading before coming up with enough for a modest daily goal. I came into the first trade a touch late but the second attempt was right on.

I put back up the same screen shots as I normally do but did add one other thing into the picture. There are yet more things I build onto the screen and other time frames that are tied directly into each other to make a complete picture, which is not shown. Let me post the days trades and I will continue below.

I recently in a few previous posts, blanked all the indicators off the screen for a reason and that is to make the point that traders really need to trade the price as it moves on there screens. If you only rely on trade indicators you are not really making progress. We need to know why the market moves, not just that is does. Knowing the “why”, is the empowering part that is missing from many traders. If we only react to what we see as trade indicators signal long and short, we can to easily get whipped around the screen and feel out of touch and ultimately out of control. So, the key is learn and understand price. How it moves, how it reverses, when is the likely times for turning points and continuation points and do all of that while risking very little.

Being able to zero in on the low risk spots is so very important. Trading with a 3-5 point stop to make 2 points on a trade is totally out of the question. If you are doing that, you will have problems sooner or later. The key again is risking little for a high probability of making the same at a minimum or preferably 2 to  3 times your risk.

Question; Do you catch yourself saying, “I think the market is going up” but don’t really know why?  If you had to explain your reasons for the market move to go up to someone and or had to write it down, could you. If you can not do that, then you need work. You can not just say, “I think”, you have to know “why” it will and or should go up and have clear compelling reasons.

This kind of thinking takes place all the time and traders are pushed into trades that are far less than desirable. They then have to struggle to justify the position and then do worst damage by blinding themselves to everything that says it is going the other way.

All of this can be eliminated and or reduced a great deal if traders would not take trades solely based on trade indicators. Seeing how and why markets move and positioning themselves in those low risk area’s for gain with limited risk is where you want to be.

Don’t trade just to trade, trade with purpose and a clear understand of price action, the trade indicators could then confirm your decisions and may be a comfort, but don’t let it be a crutch from you learning what you need to know.

Do you want to have fun or make money? Many would say make money, but there action say a very different thing. Think about it. You can do both as long as you strive to make money first in a responsible manner, then that could be fun.

So, the moral of the story is, learn what you need to learn to trade safe and responsibly. What support and resistance is and how you can harness it to your advantage. Easier said than done for many, but having a complete trading method that is spelled out with rules and objectives will take a lot of the pressure off as you will be creating some structure to your approach. It takes time, for some a long time, and for others not as long and still others never get there. Do the hard thing, not the easy thing, that could be your first clue and assignment.

Good trading to all ! Vince

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The Sniper part comes in when you are able to zero in on your entries to such a degree that your risk is very limited and reward well worth the risk taken. I minimum risk reward ration is 1:1 and often much better at 2 or 3:1 and higher.

Every trader comes into this with different objectives and it is rarely the same for any two traders. Some try to trade all day and take several trades throughout. Others are more selective and only trade a limited number of times. I have done both over time and find that I enjoy coming to the market when I am ready and look for opportunities that will take me to 2-4 points for the session. I call that “my daily goal”.  There are times that I will trade more and hit 3 or 4 times my daily goal and or higher. I don’t look for those days they just happen, usually about 2-3 times per month. That can make up for days I have a daily stop out, out which is right around 4 S&P points.

My choice for when I start to trade and for how long I trade and for how many points I will trade for, are all personal to me. It is different for everyone and there trading style should be apart of there personal trading plan. This is in addition to there trading method. That covers all the aspects of what a trade setup is and how it can be read. Where the trade is likely to go and how you plan on managing the trade once you get in it. That is all about the trading method.

The trading method is price action driven and that means, we always look to the price first as that is what always leads any trading indicator. The price is first so it only makes sense to learn how to read the price and that is all very possible.

We use more than one time frame and they fit inside each other actually acting as one chart. The first is a zoomed in view of the second which is larger as that brings the view to light in a way that can be exploited when you again know how to read the price.

I do have some charts that I trade with that have no indicators on them at all to keep a clean pure view what I need to see with my eyes apart from indicators. I do also have other screens that do have them up as it should only be a confirmation of what you are doing, but all for its own method reasons apart from any indicators and the influence it might bring. That is a very important point.

There is no substitute for learn how to trade this way. Doing so will empower and enable you to trade any Stock, Commodity, Forex or Index future you choose to.

It is a good practice to wait for the best entries, but I often as mentioned trade when I am ready and take what is available. That may not really be the best for the best results, but I figure I gain my freedom in its exchange. If I were to stalk a big trade move for hours before coming into it, I could make more, but I have to give up my time and have to commit more of my day to the screen. This is just a personal choice and I usually choose not to. I like the fact that I can come into the market for an hour or two, get what I am looking for and leave. That is not always that easy to do for many others as the market does tend to have an addictive element to it and that has to be acknowledged. Failing to accept that fact can lead to over-trading and trading fatigue which will weight down on your overall performance.

Getting impatient can lead you to make mistakes and I make my share of them. I made a bad trade today on entry and exit. Its not the norm but it happens. Fortunately I had three other nice trades, especially my last with increased size.

Every trader needs to have a solid trading method to follow and adhere to. You then need your own personal trading plan to complement your trading method which will encompass many things as mentioned above like trading style including time frames, when you plan to trade, how long you plan to trade and for how much etc.  Not yet mentioned, you need to know how and what you are going to do to feed your mind with the right stuff to keep you balanced, committed, disciplined and patient. This is what Sniper Day Trading focuses on in full and what has helped me in my trading. Again this method is price action driven with clearly defined rules for entry, exit, stop placement, etc. It has a very simple element to it and a much more advanced element to it as well which comes over time.

That’s all for now as I will post my days trades under this. I have taken all indicators off my screen shots as I want to drive this point home to those who may be following. I wish you all the best.

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What I mean by that is time needs to pass for the ability to make higher prices. That is an unpopular position as the world looks like it turning upside down, but it is still the likely path for price at this time. At this time is the key phrase as the market refuses to crack. Many are expecting a crash and they have valid reasons, but I still think we have time. We could see prices in the daily market to make slightly lower prices, but think there is another rally behind this last one, we shall see.

In the smaller times frames of which I trade, that is where the rubber meets the road. We started off in the early session, leveled out mid day and put in a rally late in the session. I started the day late and was in the slow chop section. The move I had been showing to members in a training video is the move that did show up. In today’s case, the market had to mark a bit of time before it was ready for the advance.

Today’s trades below and some additional comments;

I took everything off the screen today as I want to make the point that we do not trade off of trade indicators. Those are only a reflection of the price which always comes first. Indicators can be misleading at times for those who don’t know how to read the price first.

What came first, the chicken or the egg. OK, maybe that may not be the best example, but the price always comes first, then the indicators reflect what the price is saying. If you know and learn how to read the price and that means entries and exit, and managing the stops, you will be able to really trade. You can trade anything in any time frame.

Using more than one time frame is something we do. There is a complete reason for doing so, as there are trends and moves inside of others. Every chart in its own time frame is saying something about where it is and where it is likely to be going. If you learn the launguage you will do well as long as you have the  trade discipline to follow it. Many traders have a great method, but lack the patients and trade discipline to act only when called on.

This is something every trader always has room to improve on. If traders would work on themselves in this area just as much as they do in learning an actual trading method, they would see the results they strive for. Success lies within each one of us and it is just waiting to be released. You need to direct your energy in every area of your life to a balanced approach so that when you arrive to the trading part, it is synergistic to every other area and in harmony.

There is a lot to what I just said, but this is some of the most difficult stuff for traders to first see, then accept and finally act upon. If you are looking to find your spot in the markets, first look within and be honest with where you are and your abilities. Then take the steps to move forward. If you keep making some kind of progress, you will always be moving towards your dreams. Just be sure that it does not get stuck in the dreaming phase, because that happens to everyone. The sooner you move past that, the sooner you will get where you want to go.   Trade in the now, leave the past behind.

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There sure is a lot of news out these days and why I don’t like following it to help me make market decisions. All the news is constantly being inserted into the market on a moment by moment basis, so it pays to follow the market as that is more of a pure play. There can be to many games played as institutional traders try and work the news to draw in participants only baiting them so they can sell it off.

The price action within the day is in my opinion the best way to not get duped. Let me state, that if you don’t know how to read the price, you will still get hung out to dry. It does take time to learn, but it can be learned if you know or have the blue prints. A builder trying to build a structure with no blueprints would be foolish. In the same way attempting to trade with no blueprints, plan, method is also foolish, but traders try it all the time.

You have to admire the initial burst of self confidence, but it is soon most often met with trading  reality that it is not easy. Trading can be simple, but it is rarely easy. That is often a lure for many. It does not look that hard, until you try it for real and see that it is not that easy. I say that to those who don’t have a trading method that works. This is not just a few idea’s of how or what you will do when or as it relates to your favorite indicators, but an actual written plan on how to view, interpret and then trade the market.  If you have a few years, you might be able to come up with one yourself, but otherwise, you will may need to look around.

Not all trading method are created equal, that is for sure. With that said, it should include things that are visual to help you see what is present already on the screen and it should be backed up with a solid consistent trading methodology. The second part is the one most have a problem with as it often does not exist. I feel, a trader needs to know why a trade is going to go up or down, not just that it is. If he knows why, then he can understand the process and know what to do about taking advantage of it the next time he see’s it coming. Without that knowledge, you are left powerless to forces you do not understand and that is not going to help you long term. You will be left twisting in the wind.

So, to recap, having a solid trading methodology to go along with all the tools is imperative. The tools alone will not make a good trader. There is just to many things going on within the market on a daily basis that you will not be able to keep up with it.

Knowledge is Power and those that have the knowledge have the power. I know we have all heard that before and it is in large part, very true. Get the knowledge and see the power.

In today’s trading, I was only able to catch the last few minutes only of today’s market for a few points. I came in late and missed the opportune entry, but it still had a few low risk points left in the move. A screen shot below with an accompanying sister chart.  Good trading to all.

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That kind of a move is very nice to see, but it did leave most traders with little left to trade as the range began to narrow. Currently the market is still open with about 2 hours to go so there could be better action for those afternoon traders.

I did restart my trading today, with just very modest gains. I took 4 trades with three of them profitable. The second trade took care of the first trade with a little extra as I did add on and the next two added to that for as mentioned a modest gain for the day. Just a little over an hour on trading which is OK.  I really don’t like trading for multiple hours at a time. I am sure I could make more points if I hang in there, but I could make mistakes and have to struggle to come back and so on. I am sure many know what I am talking about.

When market conditions are favorable, that is when it could be OK to stretch it out a little. When the range is narrow and movement shallow, there is no need to push it. Early on after the open, things were much better, but after the first 90 minutes many are just finishing there day. That happened to be the top in the market and just when I started, a little more tricky. My trades and the first hours of the market action below.

Trading in the S&P emini’s can be simple, but it is rarely easy. Above are just a few small scalp trades that netted me a little better than 2 points. I look for 2-4 points per session and can go weeks at a time hitting that. Every trader needs a plan and a solid method to follow. I show a limited version of my screen as the indicators are just a reflection of price and my trading method. The price is always first and a traders ability to read it is key. These custom trading indicators are a nice way to tell you if you are early, late or should not even consider taking a trade. The color change is often a possible get ready indication that a turning point may be coming. Conditions need to be met for a strong buy at those area’s as some trades are better than others.

Yesterday, I mentioned I would go over the daily market and what we could expect in the weeks to come. I know Europe is on a tipping point and the market has corrected from its initial blast off from the market lows of early October, which leaves us coming back up towards overhead resistance. There is a little upside before that resistance firms up, which will be the ultimate test. Yesterday I wanted to write about this upside resistance being tested as we are doing today, but chose to skip it.

The market sentiment has pulled into a neutral area which does leave room for more upside in the weeks ahead. With last weeks large pull back, the sentiment continued to climb. With the market advancing the last couple of days, that lead me to think the bullish bias would continue, but it back off a bit instead. That leads me to believe that some skepticism did come back and will be what is needed for the market to overtake the overhead resistance we are approaching. Currently the market sentiment for the bulls is in a neutral area.  All very interesting stuff.

That’s it for now. Good trading to all.

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You could see in yesterdays posting, that I took some non method trades. The indicators are only a reflection of the method, but a good way of seeing if one is following it or not. If you are going off the reservation, it will be clear to see and when you are on track, that is also clear to see.

Today, I got back on track as it has been weeks of modest daily gains before this. Losses happen, but they don’t have to induced by lack of patients, or lack of allowable trading time. If one does not have enough time to trade, it can be best to not trade. I need to remember that, as that was my downfall yesterday. I did not want to take the time to wait out the market to best get into position that would allow me to get the trading advantage on my side of the table and it cost me. It was just a few point loss on the day, but that is not the point. I could see I was off and for the fact of me stopping, I get an extra bonus for that and makes up for my mental short comings at least in my mind. Let me post today’s trades below before I get to far along.

Just three trades here, with the first one a 5 tick loss. That is really not a problem as it was an acceptable loss for the entry taken. You can see a reverse signal and that is my confirmation that a stop there was appropriate. The move was a last ditch effort by the market to take out the shorts before it actually does go down. My re-entry was spot on and I did not hesitate as the shorts were right in taking the market down.

It was all in the bigger picture to take the market down, so that it could then take it up higher in a big way as shown. I did miss that next wave up as I was doing a training video for my group as things were developing. I can honestly say, I missed the move as it just got past me. The secondary move higher, was caught as I could clearly see higher prices and did point that out in great detail in the training video I was just finishing up.

The market did move higher after my last exit and that is OK.  I don’t have to get it all and enjoy selling into strength a lot more than selling into weakness.

In a recap of the daily’s, we did get the second day of pull back early on as the market sold off in the night session and again just after the open, only to then recover and move higher on the session modestly.

The market is now in a position any time to make that next move. It could go either way and I won’t say it can not go down, but I do have a bullish bias and would not be surprised to see things resolved to the upside. We always have to remain open minded, which is what allowed me to see the huge reversal at the bottom of the market 6 weeks ago or so.

The same thinking will allow me to accept and see that the resolve could yet again be to the upside, to the complete and utter amazement of the masses and guru’s.  We need to learn to think for ourselves, to see for ourselves, and then trade for ourselves. If we become dependent on others to lend us insight and that means even me, we will not be helping ourselves long term. I think it is fine to get different opinions from others, but that should not be the only thing we do to see what we should be learning and calculating on our own.  If you just don’t know how to go about that, then that is a legitimate concern and there is no fault to bear.

To make trading progress, we need to learn and gather insight from the market as it relates to a proven methodology that will be consistent over time. Next is to not overlook what we are going to do to ensure that we have the ability to follow that trading method and execute it in a way that leaves us profitable.

To do that, we need to always work on ourselves and uncover any mental weakness and replace it with mental fortitude and determination. That can only come by facing the hard cold facts that traders don’t like to face the facts. Are you willing to see what your trading weaknesses are and do what ever you have to change that within you to get the desired goals you aspire to achieve?   Many would say, Yes; but the truth is they are not willing to face those issues and change. It is a lot easier to blame past trading troubles on the method, system, the market, or any other outside factor but ourselves.

In order to take your trading to a higher level, you need to look within. There you will most often find the answers that you seek. Yes, you need a solid trading method, and without it, you will be lost, but you also need everything I just mentioned above as well. I respect my readers enough to tell them the truth.

You may have a good enough trading method as you stand today and all that is needed is the inner strength to maintain control, to follow your personal trading plan as it relates to you.

I had a nice reminder from a member this evening of this simple fact and feel compelled to share that. We all need a personal trading plan within our trading method to succeed. Find yours and you could be on your way.

Trade well, trade committed, Vince

Related posts:

1. Day Trading Lesson, A Big One
2. Trading Lesson: Part Four
3. Trading Lesson: Part Three