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Large Gap Higher in Today’s Market

Wednesday, February 1st, 2012

Today is the first day of February, 2012 and the market showed that it still has something left in it as we saw a gap higher and follow through during the day. Only late in the session did price come off, but still enough to hold onto most of the days gains with the Dow +83 and the S&P futures +12 on the session.

Today as mentioned we saw a large gap higher. That does tend to change the price action after the open as I have seen so often. The bulk of the gains came in the night session, leaving little left for the regular session traders. This is a good example of being careful on days like today. If you happen to get in early and ride up the move to later in the session, fine, but if you came in looking for price swings on a day like today, you were disappointed.

I was late coming in, which has been typical to when I usually start and had a good first trade short for a quick good scalp. Just after, the trade I would have taken at around 9:15 a.m. West Coast, I had to take a call and missed the trade. I was looking for a continuation trade higher and that is just the way it goes. I would have been done right there as days like today can present problems with tight ranges because of the earlier gap higher.

After that, with the narrow trading range and lack of movement, I began to reach in looking for the next trade. I did not want to trade all day for sure, so I went hunting. This is a mistake as it goes against the method and is not really a good idea. It could have worked out but today it did not. You can see that the next two trade series I was going against the grain in trying to “pick a top”.  Again, that was not a method trade and you can clearly see that in the trade indicators below.

I did manage to come up with a positive session and a modest daily goal, but only as I hit the last trade hard with a heavier position. I could have taken another trade that was below that, but was glad to stop where I did.

Day’s like today can be a little difficult. The best advise is tailor your expectation down and be content with modest gains if you have them. This is not a day to look for big moves. The market was just not giving it up and so adjusting your targets and daily goal to be inline with the day was in order.

Tomorrow is a new day with new reads and a complete new start point. Even though today turned out OK, I really don’t like to see myself going against the grain like I did. It says a few things about me and I do have to dig that up and get at the root, so I don’t see it again any time soon.

This is a good example of why I write my blog and post my trades. If I don’t want to embarrass myself and show what bad trades I made, then all I have to do is make the right choices as per the method and all is well.

OK, I will end this here and post my trades for the day below. Wishing you all the best.

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Stock Market Buying Little Time

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

Today is 1-23-12 and it would appear that the market is buying little time since last weeks anemic performance. The volume has been very slow and the movement has been limited. This is not a very exiting market at the moment, but it will or should change. Looking back so far, the market only moved about 3 points on a closing basis over the 1308 target level I mentioned last week. We did not get the reversal I was looking for last week in the daily market, but we have not moved far off that level either. Today, there was a bit of a reversal that took place but am hoping for the market to hold up at least one more trading day through tomorrow session. This may help push the bullish market sentiment over the edge, thus setting up a good healthy market drop, just the opposite. Last week there was a pause in that arena and will be looking ahead for insight

Last week, I got a little sloppy and careless and had a couple of back to back losing sessions. That is a sign that I am not in sync with the markets and time for a break.  I stepped back and did not do a thing. Time has a way of changing things if you let it. When you are not doing well for what ever reason, that is not the time to force your trades, or go for the get even mentality which most often leads to more difficulties.

Taking a step back is never in my mind a bad idea. The markets will always be there, but you need to make sure that you are there to start up again. Being aggressive has its place, but it is rarely when you are not trading well.

Above are the trades I took today. I needed more room to fit it in so I am showing the second chart that fits together with the one chart that I usually show. The two charts fit together and act as one chart, not two, but this is the larger view of the two. I rarely ever show this second chart but elected to today. There is a series of charts that are smaller and a series of charts that are larger on different screens. Each of the screens are for different conditions and objectives. They all still fit together and can be used to gain perspective or trade with larger or smaller targets in mind.

It is all price action driven with the trading indicators confirming the method, not the other way around. That is different and unique when compared to others who will generally fit a method around trading tools. Every trader needs a solid understanding of how the price flow works, as the market will take you up only to take you down and if you don’t know how to read it, you will get frustrated and constantly second guess yourself. That is no way to trade these markets as professionals feed off of this kind of uncontrolled behavior. Don’t let yourself be taken down, empower yourself with a working knowledge and the trading edge. It does not have to come from me, as this is my own approach that combines low risk with good reward.

In today’s trading, I took three trades all profitable for good modest gains. I could have had more and made a few notes on the screen above, but I will never complain over a good clean day. I would only say that I saw a little late the likely path of price short on my first entry and wanted to be sure that I booked a gain on my first trade out. Again, all OK. I just had to wait out the rest of the moves and really exercised some patients to let this market play out a bit.

OK, that is it, until next time- good trading to all.  Vince

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Low Market Volatility

Wednesday, January 11th, 2012

Today is Wednesday January 11th 2012, where we just keep seeing low market volatility day after day. During the Christmas Holiday’s it was understandable, but now into the new year, the amount of trading opportunities has gone down.

Day trading in a low market volatility conditions, will test the skills of all traders, as the moves are smaller and trading opportunities fewer. In addition, your level of patients will be tested as well, which brings me to today’s trades.

I was tested a few times with being patient, but I don’t fault myself for playing it safe.  I come to expect the market to react when conditions are right and when it takes to long, that can be a sign for caution ahead. Being conservative can keep your losses small, but if doubt is present, my view is to step aside until stronger conviction is present. The day’s trades below.

The trading method is separate from the trading indicators as they are there to confirm what is already present. That is very important and cannot be over-repeated.

Not every trading signal as shown is a low risk entry and would have passed on some of the previous signals. Using the mind and method to screen out which turning points are best and which are to left behind can keep your balance sheet healthy.

I have been on a little kick about this in my last few post, but it can be misunderstood as I just post the charts and such. I look to capture 2-4 S&P points for most sessions and call that my “Daily Goal”. When the market is really moving and opportunities are present for more, I will go far beyond that goal to help make up for any short falls in the previous days so I can keep pace with that average. It is a good way to approach the management side of your account as this will keep your stress levels down, not having to swing for the fences every day.

Which all reminds me of some trading advice I gave a member today. We don’t have to take every trade we see and we don’t even have to take “Any” trades. If we don’t like it or not sure, don’t feel like to you have to take it. We are not under any obligation to trade and so we should be free to pass. This will allow you to see the hidden gems when they come up. The perfect trades will just show up, without you having to hunt for them.

In market conditions as this, it is very important I feel to be able to “snip” or pick off a point or so on some clear trades. Doing so correctly can add up just the same as one good trade. If the bigger moves are not present, what you are left with is small moves. If you can not find a way to take points out of that kind of a market, then you are now at a disadvantage and subject to market conditions.

For some, this is no problem as I mentioned above, we don’t have to trade conditions that don’t meet our expectations, but I have seen market conditions last for months like this. If you can not make a profit because your conditions are not right, then you are out of business.

That is why being well rounded to be able to take a 1 point out of the market while not risking more than that, is of value. You can always trade the 3-5 point trades or more when they are present, but you are in greater control. Having the ability, even if you don’t need to use it often, will add a greater sense of confidence to any trader.

That is why I have different models setup for different conditions. The one I use mostly, is you could say the all purpose model. I have a higher time frame chart that fits in with the one I show (that is not seen) and they act as a team giving you a full picture as they are interlocked in my own unique way. There is one series of this below and one series of these above the middle one mentioned. All three of these can be used for insight and or trade opportunities to give you results based on market conditions

More on this in my next post….

Good Trading to All, Vince

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Trading Indicators Reflect Price part 2

Tuesday, January 10th, 2012

Today is Tuesday January 10th, 2012 as the market has been very quiet with low volume for the past several session.

We saw a large gap in today’s action and then the market went to sleep, again. It is hard to make money with low trading ranges and you need extra patients to let things come together and then again, let them get played out. Before I get going to far, I will post my last three trading session since my last post, Friday, Monday and Today’s. This kind of slow environment is best to be on the cautious side and not push the envelope and certainly not to over-trade, of which I am aware of. All three days came out good with the lightest day being today, but its enough if its on the positive side of the market. The screen-shots below.  Friday’s here;

Monday’s day here below;

Today’s trades below;

Trading indicators reflect price

Trading indicators are a tool that reflects the behavior of the price action it mimic’s. It is a reflection, but it is not the original. The original is always first and in this case that is the price. The price is the original and the indicator is a copy or reflection of the price.

That is so very important. We as traders need to be able to interpret the price first. If you can do that, you will know which trade is stronger and which is in a weaker position. We don’t have to trade every twist and turn the market generates, but only those trades that lends us the “low risk trading advantage” towards our efforts.

Limiting yourself to those low risk trades puts you in control of your trading and your results. We don’t have to hope or wish for things to swing our way, we only need to position ourselves where we have that trading advantage or market edge.

The market is predictable at certain points. You don’t have to know every move it makes but just accept it at its current value. When the market pressure is built and factored in, and time has run its course, the last part is for the market to express itself back onto the screen in an upward and or downward move. Position yourself properly, and you have a low risk entry and high reward return. Trading is not easy, but it can be simple in some ways.

Many come into this thinking that it could not be that hard, but the market is filled with emotions and it can make you do things that you would not normally do, to take the wrong side.

If you understand how to read the price action as it is reflected in support and resistance, you can find those low risk entries and profit form it, but you need a method that will keep you looking and doing the same types of things over and over again. Without one, you will be all over the map, and left with losses.

Recap, which comes first, the price or the indicator?  The Chicken or the Egg ? I would say, the first one on both of those, but some might argue that. The first question, it is undoubtedly the price. The price drives the indicator and that gets projected onto the screen. Learn to read the price and understand its nature and behavior and you will better understand what and when to trade. The trade indicators are a guide and they can be helpful to get you to see what is already there, but your eyes are just not trained to see and interpret it at that time.

Being successful is very possible if you take the steps that will get you there. It is up to each individual to find his or here way, but we can get help that will take us in the right direction.

There are many ways to trade the market, some of them are good, and other not so good, but the key is up to you. Do you have the drive, will and determination to overcome all obstacles.  If the answer is “Yes”, I would say, take your time. Don’t rush into anything, do your own homework and first see what type of trader you are?  Short term scalper or position trader? How much time do you want to invest in following the markets? All day, or only a couple of hours? Answers to those questions will help to uncover a few key objectives and match yourself up with a good fit as far as style.

There are lot more questions one could ask, but just remember, price is always first and if you train your eyes to see and learn what drives the price action on the screen, you will be on your way to building a solid foundation. Anything else, will just leave you unsure and loosing valuable time and energy. Think about it?

Trade Well, Trade Committed !   Vince

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Trading Indicators only Reflect Price

Thursday, January 5th, 2012

Today is Thursday January 5th, 2011 and have a video of some of the first trades of the year. I did take a few trades on Tuesday and posted them on my previous blog post, but here we have two days of trading with some of the market turns traded and shown.

It is important to know that the trading indicators I show are only a small reflection of the trading method and do not make up the method itself. The price action is always first and will always be first and is the reason to learn and understand price as it relates to future movement.

We are starting a new trading year and with it are opportunities for those that see them. Every day is a new beginning for traders and that is how it should be looked at. Yesterday may have had trading lessons but the right approach is always moving forward from where you are today. Learn from the past, but do better today is a simple approach but a healthy one.

To many traders get stuck in what they did wrong yesterday and carry it over into what they are doing today. That can be a drag on your outlook and thus results. We all have the ability to “Choose” to make things better, better than it was in the past, but we need to get over the past, as not doing so will result in that mental drag mentioned above.

Choose to make this the best year of your life first, then choose to make this the best trading year of your life. The first one has to come first to allow the second one to become validated.

Taking action that will move you towards your goals is the first step. Think it out on paper, be realistic, and be sure not to get stuck in the dream state. Action is tied to a plan, is the way to start out the year and remember to exercise your mind because that is the “engine” that will take you there. Think about it.

I wish you all the best, Vince

P.S.  A screen shot of today’s trades in case you don’t have time to view the video above. This does not have the large move short I was looking for at the close of yesterday but does include the two nice moves I picked up in today’s session.

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Stock Market Still Showing Strength

Wednesday, December 7th, 2011

Today is December 7th, 2011 and the stock market is still showing strength. We closed at the highs of the day and that is a good sign. The other day I talked about market rotation and it appears that is going on. Tomorrow could be the day that we will know for sure.

A break above that wall of resistance I wrote about several posts ago seems to have been validated and with the last few sessions I see signs of that breaking to the upside. This again is not popular but I just call it as I see it, of which I could be wrong, so we shall see. If I am wrong I will admit it, there is no shame in being wrong as that is just part of the process.

Weeks ago, I did say the market would reach the 1308 area but we sold off first and made one of the fastest and largest turn around in history. Down 10% in 7 days and back up 10 % in 5 days.

In today’s trading, I did a U-Tube video because I traded a lot longer than I normally do. I hit over three times my average daily goal to put in a nice day. Since it covers a good portion of the day, I just elected to do a video showing the whole session.

As I always like to point out, the indicators are only a reflection of the method. The method is first and the trading indicators come along for the ride to confirm what is already happening and understood with the price action. This is the best way to learn how to trade. You need to know how to build price structure and what that means for the next likely move and targets.

You can’t always swing for the fences, you need to be able to read the price action and let it tell you where prices will go. I took 5 trades today with 4 profitable for small scalps of 1-2 points each and the last one good for 2+ points, 6 points and 9 points at the top. The loss was for 5 ticks or 1.25 points. OK, that’s it for today, the video below if you care to watch. Good Trading to all.

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Market Rally +400 on Dow Jones

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

Today is Wednesday November 30th, 2011 and we saw the market rally +400 on Dow Jones, with the bulk of it coming in the night session.

That kind of a move is very nice to see, but it did leave most traders with little left to trade as the range began to narrow. Currently the market is still open with about 2 hours to go so there could be better action for those afternoon traders.

I did restart my trading today, with just very modest gains. I took 4 trades with three of them profitable. The second trade took care of the first trade with a little extra as I did add on and the next two added to that for as mentioned a modest gain for the day. Just a little over an hour on trading which is OK.  I really don’t like trading for multiple hours at a time. I am sure I could make more points if I hang in there, but I could make mistakes and have to struggle to come back and so on. I am sure many know what I am talking about.

When market conditions are favorable, that is when it could be OK to stretch it out a little. When the range is narrow and movement shallow, there is no need to push it. Early on after the open, things were much better, but after the first 90 minutes many are just finishing there day. That happened to be the top in the market and just when I started, a little more tricky. My trades and the first hours of the market action below.

Trading in the S&P emini’s can be simple, but it is rarely easy. Above are just a few small scalp trades that netted me a little better than 2 points. I look for 2-4 points per session and can go weeks at a time hitting that. Every trader needs a plan and a solid method to follow. I show a limited version of my screen as the indicators are just a reflection of price and my trading method. The price is always first and a traders ability to read it is key. These custom trading indicators are a nice way to tell you if you are early, late or should not even consider taking a trade. The color change is often a possible get ready indication that a turning point may be coming. Conditions need to be met for a strong buy at those area’s as some trades are better than others.

Yesterday, I mentioned I would go over the daily market and what we could expect in the weeks to come. I know Europe is on a tipping point and the market has corrected from its initial blast off from the market lows of early October, which leaves us coming back up towards overhead resistance. There is a little upside before that resistance firms up, which will be the ultimate test. Yesterday I wanted to write about this upside resistance being tested as we are doing today, but chose to skip it.

The market sentiment has pulled into a neutral area which does leave room for more upside in the weeks ahead. With last weeks large pull back, the sentiment continued to climb. With the market advancing the last couple of days, that lead me to think the bullish bias would continue, but it back off a bit instead. That leads me to believe that some skepticism did come back and will be what is needed for the market to overtake the overhead resistance we are approaching. Currently the market sentiment for the bulls is in a neutral area.  All very interesting stuff.

That’s it for now. Good trading to all.

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Valuable Trading Lesson

Tuesday, November 15th, 2011

Today is November 15th, 2011 and was a good trading day, not because of points made, but was a nice regrouping from yesterdays loss. The method is there to follow, and when I don’t follow it, it becomes a gamble on it working or not.

You could see in yesterdays posting, that I took some non method trades. The indicators are only a reflection of the method, but a good way of seeing if one is following it or not. If you are going off the reservation, it will be clear to see and when you are on track, that is also clear to see.

Today, I got back on track as it has been weeks of modest daily gains before this. Losses happen, but they don’t have to induced by lack of patients, or lack of allowable trading time. If one does not have enough time to trade, it can be best to not trade. I need to remember that, as that was my downfall yesterday. I did not want to take the time to wait out the market to best get into position that would allow me to get the trading advantage on my side of the table and it cost me. It was just a few point loss on the day, but that is not the point. I could see I was off and for the fact of me stopping, I get an extra bonus for that and makes up for my mental short comings at least in my mind. Let me post today’s trades below before I get to far along.

Just three trades here, with the first one a 5 tick loss. That is really not a problem as it was an acceptable loss for the entry taken. You can see a reverse signal and that is my confirmation that a stop there was appropriate. The move was a last ditch effort by the market to take out the shorts before it actually does go down. My re-entry was spot on and I did not hesitate as the shorts were right in taking the market down.

It was all in the bigger picture to take the market down, so that it could then take it up higher in a big way as shown. I did miss that next wave up as I was doing a training video for my group as things were developing. I can honestly say, I missed the move as it just got past me. The secondary move higher, was caught as I could clearly see higher prices and did point that out in great detail in the training video I was just finishing up.

The market did move higher after my last exit and that is OK.  I don’t have to get it all and enjoy selling into strength a lot more than selling into weakness.

In a recap of the daily’s, we did get the second day of pull back early on as the market sold off in the night session and again just after the open, only to then recover and move higher on the session modestly.

The market is now in a position any time to make that next move. It could go either way and I won’t say it can not go down, but I do have a bullish bias and would not be surprised to see things resolved to the upside. We always have to remain open minded, which is what allowed me to see the huge reversal at the bottom of the market 6 weeks ago or so.

The same thinking will allow me to accept and see that the resolve could yet again be to the upside, to the complete and utter amazement of the masses and guru’s.  We need to learn to think for ourselves, to see for ourselves, and then trade for ourselves. If we become dependent on others to lend us insight and that means even me, we will not be helping ourselves long term. I think it is fine to get different opinions from others, but that should not be the only thing we do to see what we should be learning and calculating on our own.  If you just don’t know how to go about that, then that is a legitimate concern and there is no fault to bear.

To make trading progress, we need to learn and gather insight from the market as it relates to a proven methodology that will be consistent over time. Next is to not overlook what we are going to do to ensure that we have the ability to follow that trading method and execute it in a way that leaves us profitable.

To do that, we need to always work on ourselves and uncover any mental weakness and replace it with mental fortitude and determination. That can only come by facing the hard cold facts that traders don’t like to face the facts. Are you willing to see what your trading weaknesses are and do what ever you have to change that within you to get the desired goals you aspire to achieve?   Many would say, Yes; but the truth is they are not willing to face those issues and change. It is a lot easier to blame past trading troubles on the method, system, the market, or any other outside factor but ourselves.

In order to take your trading to a higher level, you need to look within. There you will most often find the answers that you seek. Yes, you need a solid trading method, and without it, you will be lost, but you also need everything I just mentioned above as well. I respect my readers enough to tell them the truth.

You may have a good enough trading method as you stand today and all that is needed is the inner strength to maintain control, to follow your personal trading plan as it relates to you.

I had a nice reminder from a member this evening of this simple fact and feel compelled to share that. We all need a personal trading plan within our trading method to succeed. Find yours and you could be on your way.

Trade well, trade committed, Vince

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Market Move Taking Many by Surprise

Tuesday, September 27th, 2011

Today is Tuesday September 27th,  2011:  We saw some nice follow through in today’s session early on with a large gap opening higher and holding to yet higher prices into the afternoon. I only traded for less than 30 minutes in the morning, but later in the mid day was pointing out how the market was going to go to 1189 as a top for the last move. It came together perfectly and went a few ticks over the 1189 mark I called out to my group in a training session I had going. From that point, resistance did come in and a very nice short took hold late in the day. All something clearly seen within the trading method.

Early on, the market was in a very narrow range, much different than we have been accustom to seeing, but you will see days like this. Many times, when you have a huge gap opening, you will get a restricted range.  The bulk of the move came in the gap higher which many were not able to participate in except those trading in the Globex pre-market. The gap higher and its accompanying interest coming in after the open, helped to hold up the market and limit any selling. Those that wanted in, took every opportunity to get long at small pull backs and so supported the gap higher. Until prices reached the target high of 1189 my call and actual 1190, there was no longer any reason to stick around as the move was complete and the smart money hit the doors running, thus the large late day sell off.

Knowing that 1189 was an important trade to target in today’s trading would have given you insight in holding for higher prices if that is withing your trading model. I did not want to stick around and be exposed to the market all day and being in the market for only 20 minutes with a modest trading goal in hand worked for me today. I do have an interest in trying to hold for larger targets and many times I do, but I always balance that with time. I value time as a commodity that I can never get back. The more time I can free up to do the things I like to do, is of great value to me and so there is the balance.  /  My trades from today below.

The market as mentioned and as you can see above early on, was a little choppy, but often that is just fine for me. Either way, trending or choppy, the method will perform.  It is us that just need to read it and get in sync with the price action. If you try and impose your will on the market, you will be humbled. We can’t trade for what is not there just because that is what we want. If you take that stand and you can, then you need to be prepared to wait for hours and even days for some.  The market is the market and what ever we want does not matter to it. You either conform to it or wait until you see what you like, but be prepared to wait, because waiting is a trade just like a long and or a short. Many traders have never thought about that I am sure. Waiting and not taking a trade, “is a trade”.  It is a “no trade”, which again is a trade position. You are waiting for your conditions to come together.

For me and the way I trade, I don’t have to wait long, 10 minutes, 5 minutes, 15 minutes, until what I need to see comes together and then it is down to moments for the entry, which is done without hesitation. As mentioned above, that style appeals to me and I like it. I can get a few points from a variety of market conditions, get out and be off. Time off is one of the things that trading is supposed to offer as a benefit the last time I checked. (pun intended)

Anyway, I took only one trade and scaled out for + 1.75 points, +4.75 points, and +2.50 points, an easy day for what could have been a difficult day for many. The second exit I had a trade to target in mind at the top but ended up closing a few ticks off that high.

The trading indicators are very consistent and is my own twisted version of something to give me a near perfect guiding light that reflects my trading method. The trading indicators are not the trading method.  All members  learn how to read the price structure as it relates to the method. Which came first, the chicken or the egg?  Well, that may not be a good example, but which comes first, the price or the indicators?  “SURVEY SAYS________ “   ‘The Price’ .

When you learn how to read the price and enter where you should, at the “Sniper Holes”, then you will not experience very much draw down after entry and is a great way to trade. I could never sit through 3-4 points of draw down on a regular basis while things shaped up for an advance. I think I would die if I had to do that in the hope that it will pan out. That is no way to trade. Members can get there entries down to ticks and that can still produce several points when proven right, which can be often.

Day Trading is not a easy venture, but for those who are willing and see the opportunities, the rewards are endless in offering you the time to do other things that you really love to do and bring a richer more meaningful existance to your life. It is possible for many more traders who find out what it is that they are lacking. It might not be your method, but it could be you, so look within first for your answers, you just might find what is missing.

Best you all,

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Perfect Call on Gold & Silver Sell Off

Saturday, September 24th, 2011

Today is Friday September 23, 2011 and we saw the markets stabilize from the frenzied sell off of the last few days.

We never made it to the top of where I thought we might get to this round in the S&P (1245),  but that has a silver lining for the long term bulls.

Be sure to read at the bottom of this post my call on the Gold and Silver sell off made seven days ago, where I did get that one right, spot on.

Before, I start getting into the what is going on with the markets, I would like to recap my trading day first.

I took good method trades except for one that stands out. My third trade was a long and I had no business doing that, a small 5 tick loss, but other than that, the other two losses are just trading losses that happen. My second trade would have worked out OK with my 5 tick stop in place, but closed it out at -3 ticks before I saw prices go to where I thought it might, but that is OK with me as I had reasons for it.

I was really looking at that last trade, where prices really moved up. I could see this one coming as per the method with solid “trade to targets” along the way. I road out the smaller turning points and remained with the plan for that move. The 5 point trade with the first contract coming off, sure was nice to help take the pressure off for the pullback that followed. Adding on at the arrows would be aggressive, and I thought about it, but was happy enough with the slightly higher contract count from lower levels.

Seeing the last trade, with its “trade to targets” helped give me a very good day on the session, a good three times plus my daily trading goal overall.  This was one of those days that like to hit 2-3 times per month that is over and above the regular 3-4 point + daily trading goal that I regularly hit. In this market, it has been a higher overall point total for most days, but the market volatility is offering it, so we take what it offers with as little struggle as possible.

You can see that the trading indicators match up nicely with my entries when I do the right thing, but you can also see that when I don’t do the right thing, you can again spot it as it does not match the indicators.

I don’t trade off the indicators, if you can believe that, but the trading method apart from trading indicators will give me the exactly same spots for entry, but based on a totally different set of method conditions and rules.

Current members can testify that this is true, but I will add, that the indicators will confirm very nicely what we are trying to do, as time and time again, it just works.

The key is being able to trade the method by its set of straight forward rules and conditions.  I would think that it should not be that hard to pick up 3-4 points per session when you follow the trading method and in reality, it is not. The truth is as traders we need more than the ability to follow a trading method. We need to be able to execute it and keep our emotions in check.

Letting ourselves, defeat ourselves, is what happens so often in the trading world, that it is hard for many to admit it to others and more importantly themselves.

When you are able to admit this fact that you don’t know but are willing to learn by doing the hard work to find out how, first to trade a solid method that is consistent with the natural rhythm of the markets and then work on yourself to uncover the hidden weaknesses that we all tend to cover up. It is in exposing those weaknesses that we will get a real sense of progress, that will be lasting and not just a temporary surge of hope that is not founded upon anything of lasting substance.

Jumping around looking for the Holy Grail in trading is not going to be the answer. There are many good trading methods out there and some I am sure work well and there are some I am also sure that don’t.

The point is, if and I would say that one more time, “if”, you have a solid trading method that can deliver what you want out of the markets, then you really need to work on you, from a different standpoint, internally. That is where traders run off course.

I don’t have time in this post to go into those things that can be done to start that work, but I will likely in future posts. I know I have covered some of this in previous posts, but new perspectives, idea’s and skills are constantly being added into the mental side of trading for me and that always gets passed on down to members. So let me end this portion of my post as I can see I went down a totally different path from the start.

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The recent days sell off has a silver lining to it. We did come up short this go around in my last call for S&P1245, but did still go pretty far along that path. I can admit this last target wasn’t reached in the daily market, but the good part is, this sell off has flushed out a lot of the long term holders of the last couple months.

We have re-tested the lows and do expect the market to hold somewhat in this area to counter with a strong rally back up that will potentially take us to much higher levels than the 1245 number we never saw to this point.

Everyone has become very bearish on this market. There are many calling for a large continued drop below the 1000 mark on the S&P and I can see why, but it can not be that obvious for everyone to get that one right. There are numerous polls out that show the level of bullishness has dropped to extreme levels, especially with this latest drop. I cannot be apart of the “Herd” and agree with them at this time.

I am looking for support and a strong counter trend rally to start sometime this week for again, much higher levels than the 1245 mentioned, so that is the silver lining. I could be wrong so don’t take this as investment advise.

Currently, for Mondays session. I can see a 25 point move up within the first 90 minutes of trading. We could get that in the night session first, but I see a clear path of at least that amount.

Lastly, on September 14th, 7 trading sessions ago, I wrote in my blog that Gold and Silver was going to drop. I said then on Wednesday that by Friday and as soon as tomorrow, (Thursday) we were going to see a sharp fast sell-off in Gold, a minimum of $150 dollars per oz. Then the price was 1826 per oz and that would bring prices to a minimum of 1675 per oz.

Seven trading sessions later we saw NO higher prices and the drop did start on Thursday, the next day and 7 days later we stand at 1639 per oz. completing that call, currently a drop of 187 dollar per oz, over 10% and Silver did come along for the ride as mentioned. I see support in Silver coming in at 26.50 or so and feel that would be a great buying opportunity for a long term hold.

Currently Silver is $ 30 per oz, so we could see a little more to come for the metals and again, I think this will be a spot to pick some up for a long term hold, but that is just my opinion. This would be physical Silver and Gold for that matter. When Silver hits that 26.50 area, Gold will find its level of support at that same time. The target on Silver looks easier to call than the final support on Gold, so Silver will help find the timing and support of Gold, again all my own opinion and not a recommendation for others to buy or sell.

I went way over in this post, but there is a lot going on and lots to say. Lets give the markets some time to see how the next few moves will play out.

As day traders, the daily markets don’t really matter much, but its good to look at and follow for overall direction. I wish all my readers the very best. Feed back and comments are always welcomed. Vince

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