Posts Tagged ‘trade indicators’

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The Perfect Trading Day

Saturday, December 17th, 2011

Today’s post is for Friday’s session December 16, 2011 as I had the perfect trading day.

There was some pretty good moves early on in Friday’s session in the S&P’s, but mid day things just went to sleep. I took only one trade and was actively participating in the market for 45 minutes and in the trade for 30 minutes and closed the last of my scaled out position for around 5 points. The perfect trading day, with little struggle and only one tick of draw down for the session.

For Monday’s session, I do think we will see a number I put out for Thursday’s session 1198/97 in the S&P futures but this time it will be in the active session. We hit that number called and got the desired reaction of a instant 22 S&P point rally of which I did say would happen and it did on cue, but do believe we will need to see that number now for the regular session.

I won’t be overly anxious about seeing that come to pass but just think it will come Monday. We are in a pretty good position to hit that in pretty quick fashion but again think we should see some strong buying power lift prices back up and would be looking for an up week in the markets overall. Let me post my day’s trades below.

Currently the S&P futures are at 1210 and 1197/98 is 12-13 points away, so don’t be surprised to see that move early on as it should trade in the regular session to that point. This is just my opinion and not trade or investment advise, so be sure to do your own research and analysis.

I have a larger tick chart here to fit in the whole day, but no trade indicators.  I have been trying to drive home the point that the trading method is not indicator driven and has all its own basis for taking the trades or not. It is hard to not talk about it and not say how things work, so I show something that traders who look on can identify with, trade indicators. They are consistent with the trading method but are not the basis for it. It is all very specific and clear with entries, stops and targets.

I wanted traders who are learning the method to rely on there ability to read the price apart from the indicators and do training several times per week for members to drive that point home. When you put some of the indicators back up, you will see that they confirm very nicely to give you the same exact points that the method will give you on own method analysis. I hope that is clear.

The goal is to get traders to be able to read any price chart and have confidence to trade it if they choose. It can be any style of price charts, candle charts, minute charts, tick charts, point and figure charts, range charts, it does not matter. Again, it can be in any time frame as well.

This can be very valuable when looking at one’s long term portfolio of stocks and mutual funds if you have them. The same would apply to those as well. This is a skill that can be learned. There is more than one way to view and understand the markets and the approach I take is different and not rarely seen if ever in its combination of techniques. It is my method approach that is unique to me, built up over decades, literally.

Many traders use different styles that can include some of the various bar charts as mentioned. Let me reiterate, you can use candle charts, range charts, tick charts, minute charts, as that part really does not matter. I use tick charts and build the screen with more than one time frame to get the chart to view as just one screen and time frame and that is apart of the trading method.

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Looking for Market Reversal

Wednesday, December 14th, 2011

Today is December 14th, 2011 as the short term selling continued today, but am looking for a market reversal in tomorrows session.

I could see the S&P futures moving on down to 1197 early on and think that we could see a significant bounce and eventual turn around into next week. This is just my opinion and I will be willing to trade long and or short depending on the days action. This call is mostly for the daily market as I think the selling will start to dry up at the above levels.

In today’s trading I took 3 trades and invested about 30 minutes into my trading before coming up with enough for a modest daily goal. I came into the first trade a touch late but the second attempt was right on.

I put back up the same screen shots as I normally do but did add one other thing into the picture. There are yet more things I build onto the screen and other time frames that are tied directly into each other to make a complete picture, which is not shown. Let me post the days trades and I will continue below.

I recently in a few previous posts, blanked all the indicators off the screen for a reason and that is to make the point that traders really need to trade the price as it moves on there screens. If you only rely on trade indicators you are not really making progress. We need to know why the market moves, not just that is does. Knowing the “why”, is the empowering part that is missing from many traders. If we only react to what we see as trade indicators signal long and short, we can to easily get whipped around the screen and feel out of touch and ultimately out of control. So, the key is learn and understand price. How it moves, how it reverses, when is the likely times for turning points and continuation points and do all of that while risking very little.

Being able to zero in on the low risk spots is so very important. Trading with a 3-5 point stop to make 2 points on a trade is totally out of the question. If you are doing that, you will have problems sooner or later. The key again is risking little for a high probability of making the same at a minimum or preferably 2 to  3 times your risk.

Question; Do you catch yourself saying, “I think the market is going up” but don’t really know why?  If you had to explain your reasons for the market move to go up to someone and or had to write it down, could you. If you can not do that, then you need work. You can not just say, “I think”, you have to know “why” it will and or should go up and have clear compelling reasons.

This kind of thinking takes place all the time and traders are pushed into trades that are far less than desirable. They then have to struggle to justify the position and then do worst damage by blinding themselves to everything that says it is going the other way.

All of this can be eliminated and or reduced a great deal if traders would not take trades solely based on trade indicators. Seeing how and why markets move and positioning themselves in those low risk area’s for gain with limited risk is where you want to be.

Don’t trade just to trade, trade with purpose and a clear understand of price action, the trade indicators could then confirm your decisions and may be a comfort, but don’t let it be a crutch from you learning what you need to know.

Do you want to have fun or make money? Many would say make money, but there action say a very different thing. Think about it. You can do both as long as you strive to make money first in a responsible manner, then that could be fun.

So, the moral of the story is, learn what you need to learn to trade safe and responsibly. What support and resistance is and how you can harness it to your advantage. Easier said than done for many, but having a complete trading method that is spelled out with rules and objectives will take a lot of the pressure off as you will be creating some structure to your approach. It takes time, for some a long time, and for others not as long and still others never get there. Do the hard thing, not the easy thing, that could be your first clue and assignment.

Good trading to all ! Vince

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Trade in the Now, Leave the Past Behind

Monday, December 12th, 2011

Today is Monday December 12th and I think when looking at the big picture, the market is marking time.

What I mean by that is time needs to pass for the ability to make higher prices. That is an unpopular position as the world looks like it turning upside down, but it is still the likely path for price at this time. At this time is the key phrase as the market refuses to crack. Many are expecting a crash and they have valid reasons, but I still think we have time. We could see prices in the daily market to make slightly lower prices, but think there is another rally behind this last one, we shall see.

In the smaller times frames of which I trade, that is where the rubber meets the road. We started off in the early session, leveled out mid day and put in a rally late in the session. I started the day late and was in the slow chop section. The move I had been showing to members in a training video is the move that did show up. In today’s case, the market had to mark a bit of time before it was ready for the advance.

Today’s trades below and some additional comments;

I took everything off the screen today as I want to make the point that we do not trade off of trade indicators. Those are only a reflection of the price which always comes first. Indicators can be misleading at times for those who don’t know how to read the price first.

What came first, the chicken or the egg. OK, maybe that may not be the best example, but the price always comes first, then the indicators reflect what the price is saying. If you know and learn how to read the price and that means entries and exit, and managing the stops, you will be able to really trade. You can trade anything in any time frame.

Using more than one time frame is something we do. There is a complete reason for doing so, as there are trends and moves inside of others. Every chart in its own time frame is saying something about where it is and where it is likely to be going. If you learn the launguage you will do well as long as you have the  trade discipline to follow it. Many traders have a great method, but lack the patients and trade discipline to act only when called on.

This is something every trader always has room to improve on. If traders would work on themselves in this area just as much as they do in learning an actual trading method, they would see the results they strive for. Success lies within each one of us and it is just waiting to be released. You need to direct your energy in every area of your life to a balanced approach so that when you arrive to the trading part, it is synergistic to every other area and in harmony.

There is a lot to what I just said, but this is some of the most difficult stuff for traders to first see, then accept and finally act upon. If you are looking to find your spot in the markets, first look within and be honest with where you are and your abilities. Then take the steps to move forward. If you keep making some kind of progress, you will always be moving towards your dreams. Just be sure that it does not get stuck in the dreaming phase, because that happens to everyone. The sooner you move past that, the sooner you will get where you want to go.   Trade in the now, leave the past behind.

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Thursday’s August 17th Market Drop Coming

Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

Well, as the title of today’s blog suggests, I see a down day for Thursday’s market with a pretty good size drop coming.  I could be wrong, but so far so good.  I came into today’s market late with a small loss to start my day followed up with a second trade just before the close. I covered a piece of it at +3.25 points, more at +6 points and have one more for which I will try and cover around the 1175 area or lower on tomorrows open.

Currently, we are at 1183.25 in the S&P emini’s and I have +8 points into the last contract. I can see that 1175 area or lower coming into play within the first hour of the tomorrows day session and will try and hold out for that price. We will likely see much lower prices for the whole session as I am looking for the market to retrace, to as mentioned in yesterdays post, 1150 to 1140 area at least. There is a chance that it just keeps on going, but I will say that it should find some support around that area for a larger counter trend rally back up over today’s highs and then some. First things first on this move and so we will see.

I will post my days trades with the previous possible trades as per my custom trade indicator. I could not fit the day in with the smaller size chart like I usually show, so brought up the next larger chart for you to see the whole day with the signals as marked.

The trade indicators are not the method by any means, but they are consistent with it. That is so true and I have said it many times before, but it bears repeating. The trading method would give you the exact same signals in most cases with some trades stronger than others.

The trade method will screen the stronger trades and so we can be selective with the trades as I have them marked here in the screen shot below. You don’t need to hit all these marked trades, just one or two would do you very well. To trade all day, leaves yourself open for mistakes and fatigue can easily set in causing unwanted losses.

This chart is consistent with the smaller chart I show and the signals are exactly the same, but you get this bigger picture view. The smaller chart lets you ZOOM IN  for a more detail view, but as mentioned, the indicator signals are the same. This is consistent with what I call my T-2 trade screen. This catches the “Turning points” as I call them and continuation trades. Those are marked with small arrows as per the indicator and are a very good timing tool to re-enter the market as the move progresses down or up, depending on the direction of the market.

It is always a good idea to leave your mind open as to what the market wants to do, but when looking at higher time frame charts, you can see things that the smaller charts are not exactly showing you. To see the larger move coming I was talking about above, I moved to the next larger time frame in the method (not shown) and it was flashing lower prices. You always have to take it one step at a time and not get ahead of yourself, but a trader can trade these larger time frames for a lot less trades and substantially higher returns.

The trade method, called the top of the market and its break down entry short of 1204 at 7:32 a.m West Coast time for a long range multiple point drop and called for support to come in 1182.  There were bounces along the way, but just playing the next time frame higher, not shown, could have kept you in for this whole move. I don’t trade out of that larger time frame, but use it for guidance and direction.

As I continue to write, the S&P is down below 1181 and puts +10 points in the last piece. I know its not where it is , but where I close it out that counts and with 2/3 of position close already, makes for a happy ending any way I look at it.

That is all for today;  last note;   I will be going on vacation until after Labor Day, but will still be keeping up with my blog to some degree, but I will not be trading. I will likely post the days turns or some part of it, but I want to take a break after today’s market. Anyone interested in the method, you still contact me, as I will be available to still help you get started. Those current members looking for help and or support, I will still be here for you too, so don’t worry. I will be traveling to the Oregon Coast and up to Portland and into Washington and more.

This is why we work, to enjoy time off and visit with family and friends. I hope my readers are able to do some of the same before the Summer is over.   Trade well and committed, Vince

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Over Trading, an overlooked issue

Friday, July 15th, 2011

7-15-11; The last few sessions the market has been marking time, as it tries to decide what its next move will be. It has pulled back from recent market highs into the middle of its trading range as recent events unfold. The debt ceiling is a big one and it is not going away as well as so many other issues. Gold is coming back as all the uncertainty is making the metal shine as it moves to all-time highs.

There is a lot one could take in, but one thing remains as day traders, the markets will continue to move and with that movement are opportunities.  Below I will post my trades for the last two sessions as I did not post yesterday. The posting will continued below.

Friday’s Trades / Just one!

 Thursday’s Trades

As you can see from these and the hundreds of other daily trade postings that there is something to this. The trade indicators are only a reflection of the trading method and not the other way around. You don’t have to get them all right to come out on top for the day. You only need a few trades and often only one to pick up good daily gains for the session. Two times this week I picked up much more than the minimum daily goal I set for myself, which is between 2-4 S&P points. Those days can make up for previous losses and or days where one did not trade. This week, I did not trade on Monday and Tuesday’s session make up nicely for that. Wednesday’s session I did a little better on my timing and also picked up much more than the minimum, so Thursday and Friday I just coasted. I would rather take the easy road than to slug it out trading the whole session. If you can get ahold of your emotions and “at times” be satisfied with a modest gain, you will give yourself a greater sense of self control and that can help your confidence a lot.

Day Trading is about picking up consistent gains. You don’t have to hit home runs to make this work for you. Being patient, using a few of the tools for confirmation to pick up a few points each session is the way to go. There will be days you have losses, but they should be small, no more than 4 S&P points for any one session. If you don’t have a point that you stop, you can find yourself down 10 points and that will hurt your confidence and make matters only worst.

Being able to put the brakes on during a bad trading session is another sign of good trading discipline and though a losing session, you can make that work for you in the fact that you stopped trading when you should have.

Overtrading can be a big problem for many traders. You have to be able to follow through on making the tough decisions and saying “no”, “stop” or “wait”,can make a world of difference on how things turn out.  Overtrading can be a reflection of what is going on inside, but all without your knowledge. Examine yourself and see if you are overtrading. You can be better served by waiting for the better trades most of the time.

Many traders beat themselves at this, knowing and feeling that they can overcome, only to fall victim to the lack of will power to maintain control. You have to exercise your mind just like you do your body for other tasks. The battle is in the mind, so why not exercise the mind as we should?  There are lots of reasons, none that we often like to consider. Let’s try laziness for starters. O’ we will work hard on other areas, but when it comes to facing the difficult part which might be more mentally challenging than we are willing to commit to, be bail and find many reasons why we don’t.

These are just some of the deciding moments that will make a great trader or not. I know, it is hard to change parts of ourselves that get comfortable in bad habits. It is those bad habits in various areas’ that lend to a weak mind and thus a lack of will power to follow through with what we know we should while trading.

Are you starting to see how things can be different if you really want them to be? Those who need or want a fresh start and get some renewed insight into finding the mental strength to follow through may want to download the free E-Book on my website. Don’t worry, I won’t be trying to sell you anything after that point and up till now have not contacted anyone who has signed up for the book in any way.

I always meant to write a newsletter but never have as so many of my posting are of newsletter quality, at least I think so?  There have been a few hundred downloads for the book and that is great. I am sure it has helped many. My intentions were not to use it to contact traders to sign up for Sniper Day Trading, but to be a help in their mental trading challenges. For those that it may have helped, I am always open to hear what you think.

For those who have questions about your own trading and want some objective advice, you can contact me for that too. Again, I keep it to what you are asking about and don’t use those times for any other reason. I love to get positive reports back and have been getting a lot of them from members, but occasionally I do get some good feedback from a few who I have helped who are not members.

If my blog postings have been a help, don’t hesitate to let me know. That is what drives me to keep them interesting. I admit, occasionally I don’t put in as much as I could, but a fresh batch of encouragement will always help. OK, that’s it for today. I wish all my readers the very best.  Vince

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Major Index’s move to New Highs

Wednesday, January 12th, 2011

Today is Wednesday January 12th, as we saw the Dow Index +83 points and the S&P emini futures +12.

The volume came early on and very late in the session. From 8:30 to 12:30 West Coast, the market went to sleep. That was 4 hours of nothing. It can be hard to trade with no volume and movement as I saw today.

I have gotten off to a slow start this year, with a few points gain on Monday and 1 point gain yesterday. Both of those days I was only in the market a few minutes combined. I did not have the time to trade and was able to slip in a few trades. Today I had more time but hit that slow patch in the market, that is just how it goes. I was down about 1.50 points with a few small losses in the S&P, but decided to take a trade out of the Nasdaq Market. I don’t usually switch markets, but did today and hit a piece of that late market move for a few points.  I show it in the U-Tube video below towards the very end.

The second video under that is from Monday’s sessions which just shows more of the same, turning points and continuation entries.  I or any trader does not have to trade all of these area’s, but just a few will do and often times, just one to make a nice daily return. It is not to hard, but using good judgment and the method in full which is never really talked about, can help you get that done.  Being successful at day trading is a lot harder than most people make it, because they are acting from emotions. Having a solid method that looks to price structure, support and resistance in a very unique way and the nature momentum of the market to help get this done is key. The trade indicators are only a reflection of all of these things just mentioned. When you have both, it can be a powerful combination.

Monday’s Session

Good Trading to all !

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Day Trading Indicators

Thursday, January 6th, 2011

Today is Wednesday and the third day of trading on Wall Street for the year, as the Dow was up 31 and the S&P +6.

This market does not want to go down as it popped up after gaping lower on the open. A welcomed sign to all

Tomorrow is the fourth day in a 5 day window as it relates to the January Effect. If the first 5 days are up strongly, it usually spills into a strong year for stocks. Better yet, if the whole month of January is strong, that spills over into a positive year for stocks to the tune of 78% of the time, or something close to that if my memory serves me. Lets watch Thursday and Friday to see how we close out the week. I will also report on the sentiment changes if any tomorrow or in Fridays post. They have been strong as small investors are heavily invested in this market with the public coming in with  Bullish readings of 57-58 %, typically a very high reading.

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Tuesday and Wednesdays S&P emini futures market, with Wednesday being on top.

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Let me shift gears here for a moment. I will start my trading likely this coming Monday, but have done some recent U-Tube Video’s of this weeks price movements as it relates to in part to my trading method. Just a note on that as I will post here the last two I did from yesterday and today. It points out, “Turning Points” as I call them and continuation spots along the way as it relates. These are identified by some custom modified indicators I use to help determine these spots. This is done in an attempt to show those that look on, that there is something to this that can be useful to there trading in some fashion. I do need to say though, the trade indicators are not the trading method and is only a reflection of what is happening to the price.

I teach how to read the price and trade it first. I know I have written about this before, but it bears repeating when I post video’s as such. Their is a solid reason to enter all of these trade area’s as I have them marked as per the trade method, NOT THE INDICATORS.  The thing about it is, that they are in the same spot. Which came first, you know the saying, but this time it is talking about the stock market. Is the indicator before the price or is the price before the indicators?  I think you know the answer to that, and you are right. Price is always first and those who know how to trade the price apart from indicators will likely do better. If you have both and you can trust them to give you insight into the next move of the market, that is all you need.

Traders are usually very visual, but their is a lot more to the trading screen than meets the eye. Their are other ways to look at things, and they are very different than reading candle stick charts and such. Many traders like this form of analysis and I won’t attempt to shoot that down, but that is not what I do as I read the charts apart from indicators.

I mainly trade off of tick charts, attempting to scalp trade 2-4 points a day on the S&P 500 emini futures market. Each point represents $50 dollars per contract traded x the number of contracts can equal a nice sum for a session. Trading three contracts, and landing 3 points, is $450 for the session, with each point being $150 dollars. The minimum margin to day trade the S&P is roughly 1200 per contract assuming you open and close all contracts within the same session.

Trading boils down to good timing. With it, you get in with little draw down as the trade moves in your favor. Knowing when to do that is key and is what traders across the globe struggle with. I can say, their is a way to do that and do it with some degree of consistency. Support and Resistance combined with momentum can lead you to hitting these Sniper Spot area’s. Small windows of opportunity, come and then go. If you are able to hit the hole so to speak, picking up a few points is not that hard to do. Its all about knowing. If you know, you can do it. Does it take work to learn, yes. But what comes to us, that is so rewarding, without work and sacrifice. With it, is the opportunity to expand your empire if you so choose.

I believe, we do have the power to overcome any barrier if we think we can, but you need to know and have a way to get that done. Just thinking it so will not complete the job.

I know their may be those searching for answers to their trading problems and it could be you need a solid trade method, based on trading the price and what it represents first, then any trading indicators to help confirm your findings. This gives you the best of both worlds and is what I do when trading the Sniper Day Trading Method. I don’t want to sound like a commercial, but that is how it is and don’t know of how else to put it. I have helped many traders get over the hump and turn the corner to profitability. If you have questions please feel free to ask. I don’t mind to share some additional info.

Always wishing my readers the very best;

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Successful Scalp Trading, Is It Possible ?

Tuesday, November 16th, 2010

Successful scalp trading, is it possible? That is the question that so many traders want to know and I will tell you the answer to that, which is “Yes”. It is not for everyone, that is for sure. Their are so many traders who are not cut out for this, but will only find out by going through the process. Getting good information and a solid trading method will have a lot to do with that success, but often traders will just beat themselves, through their own personal weaknesses.

If you have the passion for taking your trading endeavors to the highest levels, achieving success and harnessing your knowledge to produce the results you pursue, you will overcome all personal weaknesses.

Not all trading methods are alike and you need to find something that is tuned to your personality. What I offer may not be the answer for some, but on the other hand it could be just what the doctor ordered.

Being successful will require a lot and should not be taken lightly. Having the ability to block out distractions and focus on price movement will be the starting point. Trade indicators are only a reflection of what the price is doing and so the trade focus needs to be on the price first.

Recently, I have talked about the three elements for successful trading of any kind. “Time, Space and Energy”.  The first two lead to the third element, trade energy, but today in the daily charts, 11-16-10 Tuesday, we saw the first two elements exercised, in that the time accelerated the price, to the downside, to a level that I called yesterday. I said that I could see where prices were going to go on the S&P, 1175/80. I thought that it was going to take a few days to do it, so that is why I said 75/80. Not knowing that it would come all in one day with a near 200 point loss in the Dow and 20 point loss in the S&P changed the figure a touch. I would have said, 70/75 instead, but I did not know that then. Close enough through and would call that a good call. The next trick is going to come, when this market holds off of these levels and moves back higher. I would say, that we are in the general area of support and will hold these current levels give a take a touch.

Knowing what to expect from the market is key and traders can learn how to do that in any time frame if you know how to read the price. I look at price and can see basically where it is going to go ahead of time, so often. Many of those times, I would not want to place an order in all of those spots because we may have the third element missing (energy), but knowing what you can expect ahead of time is a great exercise for when it does line up and come together. At those times, the energy is their to carry the price through time and space as it releases the stored energy that was built up through time.

I look at three time frame tick charts and glance at a small time chart to better see the gaps, minus the Globex market. The first two time frames are really just one chart with the third chart an expression of the first two. Each time frame is much larger than the next, but it all works together.

The stock market is fractal in nature and I have pointed that out many times. Each time frame is apart of yet a larger time frame and so on. Knowing how to harness that information and put it into a structure that makes sense is essential. Market framework is another way of saying “structure” and shows how time, space (price is another way of saying it) and energy all work together to create small little windows of opportunities where prices can be exploited. Meaning, you have the clear advantage. But how can you see those opportunities and take advantage of the situation. It is all in “knowing”. Either you know how or you don’t. You may rely on other things that you do know and that may be enough if it works for you.


Above is a short U-Tube Video I did today showing the basic entry points I might have considered. These area’s happen all day, every day, with today being very normal and not anything special.

The power went out in the mountains where I live today and did not have enough battery back up supply to trade. I waited it out as long as I could and came in for the last 30 minutes or so. I hit my goal and that was good, but still was off in my timing. It still all came out good, but I was anxious because of the lack of trade time. Again, I forced my first trade and tried to take a counter trend trade short for just a few ticks, but got stopped out for a point. The next trades were all gains, but wish I could have waited a minute more to enter. The price would have been the same, but the timing would have been better. I am hard on myself at times because I know I can do better. Even though it came out in my favor, I rarely look at that. Doing the right thing at the right time is much more important than getting a winning trade. I don’t want to develop bad habits. I have to be my own trading coach and writing my blog is one way for me to do that.

Good Trading to all,

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Market Turning Point Coming, Get Ready !

Tuesday, August 31st, 2010

Today is Tuesday August 31st, 2010 and I really think tomorrow is the day, we rally.

I have taken things a little on easy side lately, trying to enjoy the summer days as they are here. I have wanted to write and keep up with my blog, but the calling for time off was just a little greater. So, to those who are loyal followers, I apologize.

In today’s trading action, I was on pins and needles as we were coming into the close. I kid you not. I saw few things that told me, “if we did not rally up as we did, there was trouble for tomorrows open”. I remember it clearly, as these thoughts were traveling through my mind. I looked at everything and it all said, rally or die. We rallied at the close and I felt revealed.

The reason is, traders pick up on were the close of the day is. If it is on the lows, it sets the tone for many scenario’s. Program traders, Black Box traders and on and on. This would have had very negative signals for the coming weeks. There is a path down to S&P 945 and I did not want to see that happen. I am a long term “Bear”, just to let you know, if you didn’t already, but I just don’t think it is going to come when everyone else thinks it should.

We are going into the worst two months of the year historically, September and October. I can not tell you how many bad periods I have seen first hand with these two months as they are in-front of us. With that said, their is always the exception and what a better time then now for it.

This market has been very tricky lately in trying to fake out those who believe they have it figured out. It has waited to the very last hour of the very last day, to make a lasting impression on those who believe we are about to crack on down to lower levels from here. I tell you know, I could be wrong as I have stated before. We have not as of yet cracked as those who say we are going to, but have waited for the last 6 days in a very narrow trading range to either prove me right or wrong. It is just an opinion and is not going to change one dollar from my personal bottom line, but, I would like to get this call right in that I see everyone biting on the short trade right now and would like to be in the minority to better prove them wrong and share my insight why to those who follow my writings.

OK, I think you know I am short term bullish from here and am expecting a big rally as of tomorrow. I can’t see this going another day. It looks so right for a rally and or a crash. I can’t be blind to the fact I could have it wrong, even if I don’t think so. I always need to look to the other side. Even in a short term trade, you have to look to both sides. If you don’t, you could be blinded to what you want to see, rather than what actually is.

I made that one mistake today. I was tired in doing a phone session with a potential client and did not take a break, but just stayed at the screen and I started to see what I wanted to see. Almost like a mirage, and suddenly it appeared. In my delusion, I created a scenario of what I wanted to see, not what was. This can happen to any of us and it is not the first time or won’t likely be the last time.

By being over stretched and not fresh and or having little ability to exercise “The Power of Concentration” I am not surprised I tried to create a trade in my own mind. If you watch the video below, you will see the trade I was talking about. Looking at my trade indicators, you can clearly see that I really making a stretch for a long in the place I took that trade.

After I woke up from my slumber, I could see I was only dreaming. To take a long trade where I did, I must have been asleep. The other trades were OK, as they were all winning trades, but I could have done better there still. I did have to compensate for a bad entry by a  couple of ticks, which I don’t really like to do. I should not be complaining as I had 5 of 6 and ended up very nicely for the day. I had one loss for 5 ticks and multiple points profits. 

To finish up, I see this market has gone 6 days in a very small range and it is wound up so tight, it is just waiting to pop. The question is, which way. With the market sentiment so negative, I have to give the bias to the upside and say the surprise is going to come in with a big rally. I mentioned a few days ago that 1100 is strong resistance and we will likely trade up to that level pretty soon. Backing off from their a little is normal and a little expected, but if a break above 1100 S&P futures kicks in, we will see higher prices on top of that. So everyone knows what I am looking for, but will it happen. It is not the popular opinion right now and I am OK with that. Either way, I will make my daily goals when I trade because I will be reading current price action. That is the basis for my trading method. All trade indicators are secondary. That is a real big point and is exactly as stated. With that said, I am happy to have the trade indicators I use of which I only show a very small part of them as in the video.

I wish all my readers the very best. If anyone has comments or wants to ask questions I am very available to answer and would be glad to do so. Even if it is not about my trading method. Just ask and I will respond to you ASAP.

Vince

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Market momentum down, but looking for support

Monday, August 23rd, 2010

Today is August 23rd and we saw the markets holding on with only modest losses as the S&P dropped -4.75 points.

I think tomorrow will be a pretty important trading day and will be looking for the market to hold on. This is not a far gone conclusion, but this is what I would be looking for. If we see big selling and close that way, we will be seeing other factors come into play. Currently the daily and hourly momentum is clearly down. Support will have to make itself clear or the markets momentum will take over and we will drop.

After Tuesdays session, a new weekly poll from the Investment Newsletter Writers will come out for Wednesdays market. The negative sentiment will likely have a reverse effect on future market direction. So, the key is for the market to hold on, without any major damage, but we will see.

Below, I have a chart of today’s first 90 minutes showing the turning points during that time. There are only a few trades and they were all pretty clear. If all the trades were taken, 3 would have been big winners with one small loss. This is only based on the trade indicators. I won’t say if I would have taken all of these trades but I will say that I really liked the first one and the last one.

One would only have to capture a few points from one of these trades to make a nice daily goal. The chart below is a tick chart and the smallest size of which I use on most trading days.

Still laying low on personal trading and may be ready to get back into it by this coming Monday. I am enjoying the time off, as it will help me recharge myself for the many coming months of good volatility, that’s the plan anyway.

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