Posts Tagged ‘target area’

Today’s Target Hit in S&P 1110 Market Call

Monday, July 26th, 2010

Today is Monday, July 26th and we hit the 1110 number as called in Friday blog post with precision.

Friday I called out that we would see 1110 on the open and was going to be a target area for me unload the one contract I was carrying over from the weekend. (I see I had a typo and put in 1010 and not 1110). All was well, until I moved my stop up to break even instead of leaving it where it was at -1 point. In last nights night trading the S&P pushed up and pulled back just enough to hit my stop exactly and I was out. That is the way it goes.

I started to follow the market in today’s session late, just as things started to slow down. I had a few glitches in updating to the new version in TradeStation and caused me to stay up way to late.  That caused me more pain, because the market had made some nice moves on the open as it was inching its way up to the 1110 area. I put on a few scalp trades as that was all the market was allowing as it approached the New York lunch hours. It was slow going for a long time, but what can we expect being summer and lunch time blues.

Things started to pick up about 11 am or 2 pm Eastern and we saw a nice move down to an area I called out in today’s U-Tube video, 1104/1105.  We traded right down to that and found support. I did not trade the first move back up, but waited to see if the move was real and caught the second push back up for a few points. I was still just a touch shy of my daily goal after my last trade in the video and decided to get the rest of what I needed. The market obliged and gave me the points. That brings us to the close in few minutes, as I see there was enough behind the last move to push it a touch over the 1110. With 5 minutes we look like we are going to close near or at the highs.

I do see a long sustained move, like I had been talking about in previous postings, but we may see some pull backs here and there. The surprise is going to be to the upside as the market has done a good job climbing the wall of worry. Last week there was all kinds of bad news, one thing after another and I had even posted an article called “Wall Street to climb the wall of worry”. So far, that is playing itself out. There will be obstacles in the days and weeks ahead, but we should continue.

As I mentioned in Fridays post, I am not going to be overly concerned with the large trend of the market from here. I will be focusing on the smaller short term swings long and short as they come up. I don’t want to be distracted from calling weekly cycles and the likes. I did my part at this point and saw the turn, when no one else was looking for it and it showed up as on cue.

The market showed me something two weeks ago, said we would likely see a pull back for a few days and that was a gift to those who could prepare for the bigger move that was coming. It showed up, as we have another 100 point day on the Dow and solid gains too today’s target on the S&P futures.

The market is closed and we have 8 minutes left before the after market futures closes for its 15 minute break, before reopening. We are hovering at 1110 and appears likely we will close around that number. I find it very interesting that the 1110 number I said was going to be resistance for today has pretty much proved itself to be a significant number. Tomorrow is a new day.

I have a video posted today in the U-Tube Video Gallery, top right corner of my site, if anyone cares to watch. It is not very exiting as the market is not moving very much but non the less, it shows what I was doing and thinking a bit. Screen shot below of today’s trades. Until next time, Good Trading

Looking for S&P 1010 on Monday’s Open

Saturday, July 24th, 2010

This post is for Fridays action, July 23rd where we saw another 100 point + day on the Dow and an equivalent move in the S&P futures.

The market did put in another triple digit day on the Industrials as the market kicked in a confirmed move over the 1090 S&P futures area I had mentioned last week. Currently we are at 1101 and closed at the very high of the day. That is exactly what I was expecting as I will show you in the chart below. Before I get into that, the sentiment numbers did come out this week and even though the market had come off its highs, the numbers did back up a few % to currently 35%. That is a still a very good number and it will likely only come off back to the middle of the market sentiment range, by a rally. A number of 35% is actually a rally signal number. Last week we were at 32% in the face of over a 5% rally in the market. The number actually dropped, which is a  little usual.

The numbers I am talking about is the market newsletter writers that put out weekly information on the direction of the stock market and individual issues. These guys are usually trend followers and almost always get it wrong when a market extreme is reached. We are coming off just such an extreme, whereby you usually see a reaction of that extreme in the opposite direction. I have literally seen about 100 of these signals generated and they are very consistent and reliable. You will see on average 3 to 5 signals over the course of a year and when you multiple that by over 25 years, you get to around 100. I can’t imagine, this one is different.

This is for the longer term picture and I will not be overly concerned by this signal going forward. I am looking right now only for a short term target that I am almost certain will be met. More information below will clear that up.

So, I am expecting a short term target of 1010 on the open or even in the night trading starting Sunday after 3:30 West Coast. The target of 1010 is a short term number I see the market trading up to, on its way to higher prices. We can certainly back off once we get to the next short term target I just mentioned, but I feel it will be short lived.

So, overall, I think the market will trade higher, but may have some pull backs along the way. I posted a new video on U-Tube and will put it in this post at the bottom. It is a 30 minute bar chart of the S&P Emini futures with the night trading taken out of it, so you see the gaps from the previous days if there are any. This view is in a trending model, T-2, and will show you all the turning points since April, about 4 months.

We just went positive two days ago with a 200 point advance in the Dow, followed by a 100+ points behind it. There is about 70-80 points on the Dow and 9 point on the S&P before my short term target is reached as already mentioned.

On Friday, I was able to trade while I was resting from the previous days outing up the Columbia River. What a ride. We had a 40 foot Jet Boat all to ourselves (wife and son), with a captain and deck hand. On the way back down the river, he must have been going at least 50-55 mph, which is fast for such a large boat. I know I am off topic, but we went inside of a giant box with a large ship next to us, and it raised the water level 75 – 100  feet, so we could continue up the river. Wow, that was strange and very different. Never new they had that kind of thing. OK, back to the market.

In Fridays trading I was able to hold through a 10 point advance in the afternoon session and closed out 5 contracts right at the top and doing something I don’t normally do, am holding one contract over to get to the 1010 target area I am looking for, either in Sundays pre-market or early on Monday mornings open.

Below is a screen shot just before the close on the S&P emini’s showing my 1 contract position hold over, of which was from the add on contract I intended to hold over, with 4 points of active profit still in it. Below that is the U-Tube video showing the turning points on a 30 minute chart or the S&P emini’s, no after hours trading.

If anyone has questions, or wants more information on what I do, or wants to ask advise on what you are currently doing, I will be more than happy to give you my opinion to better help you reach your goals. My desire is help traders, period. If you need help, ask and we will go from there.

Best Regards to all my readers and followers,