Posts Tagged ‘support’

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Shocking Link in todays post, be warned

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

Today is Tuesday October 27th and things slowed down a little today after yesterdays wild ride.

The S&P cash came into the support area I mentioned in my posting yesterday, a short comment but this is what I wrote.

 From yesterdays blog: “Currently the cash S&P support is about 7 points lower from its current level.”

Like I said, it was a short comment identifying the next major area of support as I saw it. Yesterdays cash S&P 500 close was 1066.94 and the support that I saw did in fact come in exactly at that area today, with the index dropping to 1060.82 after 35 minutes of trading. It then moved up off that area by 12 S&P points only to drop all the way back down to the exact same support area I mentioned yesterday, for yet again a second time. At 10:35 the index was back at support, 1060.62, this time, for 10 minutes until it moved out 8 points up off the same support area.

It is important to note something about todays market. We had the Dow with a gain today of about 14 points and the S&P with a loss of around 3 1/2 points. This is not a huge disparity, but it is worth noting. The Dow has not pulled back far enough to establish its natural rhythm for this pull back, while the S&P has. If the Dow had pulled back along with the S&P, I would feel better about this support level holding, but to often you see the Dow come back at a latter time and finish its move, only to then force a break of support for the S&P.

So, what I am trying to say is, I am a little suspect of this support holding, on the S&P. I would like to see it hold and have the index make its final push up to the 1120 area like I have been calling for the last 6 months. I believe once that level is hit, the players will not have a reason to hold on any longer and really start selling, but that is my take on it. It does not have to be yours.

Let me give you a web site to take a look at. You may want to share it with your friends. I find it very interesting in that a picture is worth a thousand words. Their is not a lot of words but a lot of numbers, BIG ONES. The average person, I believe will be shocked and even the not so average. I still get chills to my spin when I look at this.

Before I say where this site is, I have been following these numbers for literally decades, no kidding. Just like I thought back then, I think the same now. It won’t last forever without a massive shift taking place.

This is a big reason for the continued problems which lie ahead. You can not spend more than you make and expect things not be effected. All of these numbers are backed up and if you put your mouse over the box, it will give you the source. Take a look at the bail out numbers, WOW.

Last warning to all with a weak stomach, don’t go to this site….  The bottom line is what everyone always talks about. If you see the bottom line and especially the bottom right hand corner, cover your eyes. “Alright already, give me the site, your killing me.” I know, sorry but, disclosure and all for the faint hearted.

http://usdebtclock.org/       There it is !

I should have my website update pretty soon, look for new content and new lower prices for my course. The time to make your money is now.  If you have trading resources, get yourself ready. There is no better time to go forward with fulfilling your trading dreams. The content in my program I believe will help you get there. Look for the updates in a week or so. Those interested now and want more information, E-Mail me at vinnie@sniperdaytrading.com 

Vince  

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“TURNING POINTS”, what are they ?

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

Today is Tuesday, October 20th and the market hit a little soft patch today.

Currently the S&P 500 Index is sitting on parallel support from the last 13 trading days. The support is identified by drawing a line across the tops of the recent move. Hold the same trajectory and place a parallel line at the bottom or base of the move and extend that out. That brings you to where we hit today and moved right off of it earlier in the session.

This support needs to hold and is in a similar place from a few trading days ago. Tomorrow will be a very important day to watch. If the trend is going to continue, we would probably move up early on off of support, then later in the session pull back to form a pivot. Once that pivot is formed, we will have a pivot below and a pivot above. The direction is going to be decided by a break of one of those pivots and that move should be sizable.

Currently the weekly trend is up, the daily trend is up and the hourly trend is down. So if the hourly would turn up, it is going to signify a continuation of the more dominant trend. That is how a trader should look and the market if you ask me. There are many converging signals all in different time frames, pulling and pushing against one another, but if you know how to structure yourself around the natural rhythm of the market instead of trying to impose your will on the it, you will do much better.

Over the last 5 trading days, the market has not really made any progress. If you look at an hourly chart, you can see the highs and lows and conclude that we have not made any significant progress higher only slightly. One of the reasons for this is what I call “Rotation”. The market is moving from strong hands and passing itself over to weak hands. You may ask why is that so or what exactly do you mean. I will explain.

There are many traders who have bought in at lower prices and have substantial profit, strong hands. They have the ability to let the price breath and take advantage of the larger overall trend, it has been nice. But there are so many people out there who have not been able to participate for a variety of reasons, with probably the biggest one being fear. They did not want to come in before because of all the negative talk, previous losses from last year or in the early months of this year. They have been burned and do not want to let that happen again, so this time they will be sure the market is going to move up before they get back in. These people are called “Weak Hands”. This group has been taught that you buy on a pull back and they have been doing that. Thus the reason the market has not gone down and has not gone up. The strong hands are getting out, selling to the weak hands.

This group does not have profit built up or in the market. At the first sign of trouble these people will again make an emotional decision and decide to sell once a large selloff becomes apparent and will again lose money. It is very predictable behavior and is something that can be capitalized on. It is sorry to say, but one persons panic is another persons windfall. It is all about positioning and know where those tipping points are.  There exit is your entry but in the opposite direction taking advantage of the stops. Often, I can see those tipping points coming in advance and get my order in just before the panic.

On a micro level, daytrading the swings is the exact same thing, but your competition is just a different audience, but the exact same principles at work. I have named these market swings differently over time but they are all the same. Some of the terms I have used and are original are; “pressure Points” , “Tipping Points” and “Turning Points”

I have been fond of the term, “Turning Points” and have on occasion posted a short clip of where those were in the trading day, but void of any explanation. The explanation is how I come up with those points on a consistent basis and how you could to. For those who are apart of the “Sniper Day Trading” group, that is exactly what they are getting with the rational behind it, clearly explained.

If two traders in my group were looking at the same chart understanding the method and each identified the turning points that they saw, the two traders would come up with the same turning points, a beautiful thing. The only difference would be which trades the trader took and which ones he let pass to wait for a stronger signal.  That is why I believe my training program is so powerful. I might add that those turning points are definitely tradable and all have no more than a 4 tick stop or even less, with a very high degree of accuracy. That is not something you will see everyday in the daytrading world.

A computer can not achieve what the mind can accomplish, because trading is an emotional endeavor and is ever changing. I will leave you with this today. Examine your progress and ask yourself if you are where you would like to be. If you get anything other than yes, you need to look for answers and find what can work for you before you lose your trading capital to other traders. Slow down and keep your capital safe until you feel you have a solid plan to extract what you need on a daily basis. Home runs are nice, but singles and doubles will improve the one thing that counts in this business, “THE BOTTOM LINE”.

Come back tomorrow to see some of those “Turning Points” I talked about today.

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Freedom comes in many forms

Saturday, October 17th, 2009

Today is Friday October 16th and the market pulled back at the close of the session, off yesterdays highs.

Well, we did pull back, but not before the future’s market pushed higher by 5 S&P points. That was just about the amount I saw, in higher prices. The thing is, the move was made in the future’s market not the cash market. We trade out of the future’s market, so the call was some what right. The point to that was the pull back off the last push higher. Smart money saw what I saw and said, I am not going to wait for tomorrows open to cover my position and take my profit, I am going to do it right now. They sure did and prices pulled back until the open and then just continued to fall. The cash market caught up to the futures and fell with it. As mentioned before, the cash market very often will follow the futures prices and move accordingly.

I think this move may be marking a little time, moving over in the chart to create more room, so that prices can go higher and not run into resistance. That process, may take a few days and slightly down is OK. If the index drops more than about 3 points on the S&P, it is going to bring in some additional selling and we may see a drop of 20 points or so. Currently we are sitting on some key support in the hourly cash chart. That is the next move. If this, then that. The break first, then the drop.

Just a reminder, It was two years and a week now that the all time high was reached in October 11th, 2007. Everyone is just remembering the big drop from last October, but we were in the process of dropping a whole year before that. WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE. I remember a song titled like that, I think it was from the 80’s, O well. That is the question?

I recently spoke to a few people who thought the market was going to continue higher over the next couple of years and had to disagree with them. To many things to say exactly why, but is this time different? That is alway the age old question. Every time the market has dropped, we have always pulled back up. The answer to that is yes and no. Yes before and possibly no now?

It has been 11 years since the first time the markets saw this price. That is a long time. Eleven years ago, in 1998 October, we briefly brushed up against a recession and quickly bounced back to soon there after bolt to the all time high a couple of years later. The market has not made any progress for all that time. If someone was wanting to retire and needed the money, he may or may not have gotten out at a good time. We have gone up, down, all the way back up and all the way back down since that time. As of late, another attempt for higher prices, but will this attempt be met with stiff opposition or not.

The P/E ratio’s are priced as such looking forward to earings of the future and they are very optimistic in reflecting a robust outlook, because currently by all measure of historical standards, we are way overpriced.

If anything happens to disrupt this rosy earnings rebound we will be met with a violent, fast adjustment down. Only after the market starts to interpret the news and reallocate its opinion, will it be able to tell us its next move. A move back down to the middle of this rally range, will be the best case scenario if this break and adjustment happen. Lets hope for that. If the drop does not stop, it will be because of serious problems we can not control.

The dollar is on the edge of its seat right now. The pressure coming against it is very strong. I believe I have written about it before. If anyone is interested I can give you a few articles explaining in great detail what may be about to happen. vinnie@sniperdaytrading.com  This is not a theory, but it is fact and can not be hide forever. There are some serious problems in the country, don’t be surprised if things go sour once again. There is a giant band-aid on an open wound. Is it going to stop the bleeding? No one really knows but all we can do is look at the signs.

The time to make money is still at hand, so let us not roll up in a ball of fear, but face our fears. I have met a lot of people who can not handle the possibility that things may not always be as they were in this country. For them, not knowing is the best way they can coup. I guess if I had limited knowledge I may be inclined to think that way, but I am glad I see life clearly, the world clearly, the trading markets clearly and many other areas. I am not afraid of the future but look at it through the eyes of opportunity and not only for myself, but for others.

We have the ability to make choice everyday. Sometimes we make good ones and other times not so good. It is not where you were that counts, but it’s WHERE ARE YOU GOING, that matters. We only go around this globe once and I think we should make it count. It is time for all those who aspire to live and experience there dreams to do so now.

That is what I have decided and I am investing myself into the things that will take me there. Financial freedom is just one of those area’s. Not having to worry about money is a worthy goal, but how you get there does make a difference. Day Trading the S&P E-Mini Futures is just one of the ways I am able to live my dreams. It is a means to an end, not the end.

http://www.screencast.com/t/WyQNJoc8vmj             Turning points in “Scalp Mode” Fridays session

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What can SniperDayTrading do for you?

Friday, March 27th, 2009

Today is Friday March 27th and I had another smooth day trading the S&P.

I had an interesting day today, in that I did not start trading the size that I wanted to, because I did not see great price action at the time I started trading. I put my first trade on at 8:12 am West Coast time, but it was not good enough for me to put the size on, so I waited. I did make a few nice trades and had a few small losses, working my equity up to around $1,000 in a little over 30 minutes.

I decided to take a break and do some teaching with a student of mine and came back later, after the market had a chance to change up its price action with a few new reads. At around 11:56 am, I put on a trade with 5+5 contracts, for a total of 10, at the same price of 813.75, and rode that up for 5 solid points of gain. I did not scale out of the trade, but just rode it up for all that it gave me.

The trade lasted only about 6 minutes.  That trade added $2,500 dollars to the $ 1,000 that I already had, for a nice add on trade, taking me to $3,500 for the day. Once prices got over 815.50, there were other forces from higher time frame charts working to push the market higher. If you look back at your charts to that time, you may see what I am talking about.

As far as the broad market is concerned, the Index’s are still in a solid uptrend on the daily, with some overhead resistance on the Dow coming in a little over 8,000. There was very little pull back on the way up, which tells me that when the market does stop, there will be a nice reactionary move back down to the middle. In order for this uptrend to stay intact, the Dow will have to stay above 7,700 and the S&P above 813 on the cash, which is only a few points below where we currently are.

That is how I currently see it – you might view it differently. The maximum I see for the S&P is in the 840 range, before we see a pull back, but since we are very close to support right now, the 813 needs to hold on the cash market.

Below are some questions from someone interested in my method.  I have answered all of these questions before, but I will do it again for everyone’s benefit.

I watch your videos on your blog and have some questions.Do you always use a trend-line break of some sort for entries? 

Are the entries orders stop or limit orders and where are they placed?

I see reference to 5 tick stops. Doesn’t onessuccess rate have to be quite high when targeting 3-4 ticks with a 5 tick stop?

Do you offer any training beyond the blog videos?

Answer to #1 &2  ) I almost always look for some sort of trend line break to enter a trade. It may be that a pattern is developing, like a triangle or any other pattern. Upon the break or at a back fill point, you can enter the trade. I do occasionally enter on a buy stop, but that is not very often. So the limit order is what I most often use. By using limit orders, I have missed trades by not getting filled, but that does not bother me too much because I only need to wait for the next trade. If I extend myself too much by placing buy stop orders or sell stop orders to get into a trade, I sometimes need to take the trade farther to get filled, and expose myself to greater risk by getting stopped out. Most of the orders I place, I quickly move my stop up to 4 ticks, but when I do place a buy stop entry order or sell stop entry order,  that is when I find I need the extra tick, so as not to get stopped out on a back fill of the original break out. It is not the same every time and would greatly depend on current price action.

Answer to #3 )  I use 4 and 5 tick stops almost always, rarely anything more. I see where you might be concerned with such a small stop – not many people can trade with their stop being this small. There are a few keys to being successful at this business. One is good timing. I have a set number of conditions that need to be present before an order should be placed. When those conditions are present, there is usually an 80% chance that I will hit 1 point of profit. My ultimate trading goal is to hit 2-3 points profit per day, every day. You only need to make 2 or 3 of these trades to make that happen. If you see a bigger potential of a move, you can scale out of your trade at, say, 1 point for the first half and something higher, like 2 points, just like I did yesterday. If I see a much larger potential, which does not always happen, I will elect to stay with the trade and have it give me whatever is in it, as with today’s trade of 5 points. It really all just depends on price action. That is why it takes time to learn the market ins and outs. There is no quick and easy way to master all that the market can throw at you in a short period of time. It can take years. But on the other hand, for someone who is satisfied with a daily income of 2 to 3 points profit, you can simplify the process a great deal.

Yes, you will miss big moves and yes, you could have made a lot more on certain trades, but if your goal is to make MONEY, then new traders need to be realistic in what they can expect from the markets.

If I place a trade and I only get the small move of 3 ticks on that trade, I would initially have my stop no more than a 4 tick stop. If the trade moves in my favor by 2 ticks, I move my stop to 3 ticks, and then maybe to 2 ticks, until I get filled. I am riding my small stop up with the move in my direction and hitting my small target 80+ percent of the time with a 3 tick fill. If you do the math, it comes out very nicely. In just a couple of trades, you are done.

Two trades for 1 point and 1 trade for 3/4 point, trading say only 4 contracts, will almost always give you $500 dollars in less than 30 minutes. That comes to $1,000 dollars an hour. Who makes that kind of money these days? The key is that you keep your personal struggle to get your daily goal to a minimum and then come back tomorrow to do it again.

As I wrote in my blog a couple of days ago, it can be difficult for traders to be able to identify which trades are going to run and which ones are only good for 1 or 2 points. The best way to handle that is to just trade everything for 1 or 2 points max. This will give you the opportunity to keep your focus on correct timing and not over thinking and analyzing for the big 3 or 4 to one profit ratio trade.

Answer #4) I can discuss with individuals interested in personal mentoring, one on one. I will see what your trading level is and go from there. It can be that my trading method does not work for everyone because of past trading habits that they may not be able to change. It will depend on the individual and how teachable they are. For some people it might be like putting a round peg in a square hole, and my style of trading does not match their personality.

But if you come with an open mind and want to learn what it is that I know, I would bet that I can help you become profitable. I can spend personal screen time going over my method so that you understand how it works and what it is that we look for in a trade setup. If you have Trade Station, I can set your screen up with everything I use to trade. If you are using Ninja Trader, then I can also set your screen up to very closely match my settings on Trade Station. Both are excellent platforms for trading the S&P. You will have access to my trading room for 2-3 months, where you will hear and see me put my trades on. I would want you to learn and not only follow my trades so I will have you understanding why I am looking to take each trade. Very important. We all need to think for ourselves. This is what will make good traders for the long term.

I have a trader that I am currently working with, and in this last week  he is hitting over 80 percent on all of his trades, targeting for only one point. He is posting profit of about $1,000 dollars a day. He is getting it. There is still more work to do for him, but he is working hard on mastering his timing. He does better at long trades than short, but I am working with him to help him see where the correct timing is for those short trades. His concern is not looking for the monster trade of 5-10 points, but just cranking out 1 point trades with 4 contracts. What more could anyone ask for.

http://www.screencast.com/t/DgRVunye              Today’s equity chart

Have a great weekend!   Vince

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Today’s Profits: Finished in 7 Minutes !

Thursday, March 26th, 2009

Today is Thursday March 26, and it was a quick day of trading.

Yesterday I had posted that I wanted to increase contract size and trade less. Well, I got my wish.

I was able to shift my thinking to attain my stated goal and it was nice. I had two trades, the first one for 1 point on 10 contracts, all in – all out. The second one was for 1 point on 5 contracts and 2 points on the other 5, and I was done.

This what I wanted to do as I wrote yesterday. $1,2oo profit after commission on two trades. Now I have the rest of the day to accomplish other things of interest. I would take every day in the same fashion, and will be working towards that end.

This was my original plan from the beginning and I will continue to work at it. Consistent daily profit is the objective, combined with the least amount of struggle to get there. Once you reach your daily goal, I will admit, it is and will be hard to stop trading. That is where you will also need a mentor, someone who is on the same desired path and can give you the support and discipline to stick to the plan.

Anyone who partners with me will have my full attention and support to help them see what I see and do what I do. It is hard to go it alone and you will most certainly pay your dues one way or another, but it would be my job to help make those dues as small as possible. There is usually no easy way around the fact that you will need help in trading consistently for daily profit. You will pay someone for the experience. Everyone does. You will pay the markets because of your losses and you may still not have learned how to trade consistently. Or you can pay someone who knows how to help you get there.

There are very few trading programs that are of any value and a lot of them are a waste of money. Many of them are focused only on indicators, or some other idea that puts you and your account at great risk before you are able to capture your occasional gain.

There are many ways to trade the markets and I believe that the way I approach day trading is one of the best available. When it comes to a choppy market, I love it. While others are just wishing for the day to be over. If we are seeing large swings up and down by several points, I love it. Because I can easily capture additional profits on extended moves. When the markets are showing long extended trending markets, no problem. We just look for low risk entry points along the way and pop in and out before anyone even spots us.

When you are able to trade the very small stuff, 3 or 4 ticks, you are able to take advantage of any kind of market, because you use the method to get you into a HIGH PERCENTAGE trade that gives you a pre-determined amount of profit. If you only need a couple of those trades for the day, it does not matter what kind of action the market is displaying.

In any of the three types of markets that I described above, you come out on top. There are many people out there that say scalping is the most difficult type of trading there is. In part, because they are not able to do it successfully, so they talk it down and people believe them. Then you look at the alternatives – trading a higher time frame chart, waiting hours for the right set up, risking 4 or 5 points on the trade, and then have it go against you for a loss. Now what do you do? You are running out of time before the day comes to a close and you want to be profitable for the day, so you take a less than desirable trade now for another loss and you are totally frustrated. Not a good day.

With my method, you will see plenty of trade possibilities in whatever type of action the market is displaying and have the ability to capture a nice trading profit each and every day the markets are open. That is the goal. Is it attainable? Yes.

If you have any questions, please email me and I will be glad to answer them for you. Have a great day.

 

http://www.screencast.com/t/gYuBtR2l              Today’s trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/GP2oGYTi            Today’s equity chart

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Day Trading Requires Focus and Discipline

Saturday, March 21st, 2009

Today is Friday, March 20th and the major indexes continued to back off.

The Dow was down 122 points and the S&P was off by 15. We will likely continue the retracement over the next few days as the market posted a back to back weekly gain, something it has not done since May of 2008. I have a daily chart below of the Dow and S&P and you can see that after redrawing the outside line, which I was off by a little originally, it is now lined up straight and the market traded right up to it. It also happens to be the broken support of a few months ago. I mentioned it yesterday, but you can see it today in the chart below. Support when broken will then become resistance when tested. That is what we have seen the last 2 days. The Dow also lines up, the same way.

I had a good day trading today. It was slow going in the beginning. I started late, during the slow volume time of day, and could not get any traction. I was splitting my trades when I would have done better with, all contracts in, all contracts out. After a slight draw down and the passing of a little time, the volume came back and I got myself on the right side of the trend and started putting it together. My equity had very little draw down after that, almost straight up. I settled the day out with $+1629 dollars after commission costs and had over 20 entry trades.  Still traded small for the most part and have not yet made any changes, like I was talking about yesterday.

I have one small video of a trade I put on and a still shot of the trades just after that. I backed off on the size again at the end, which is really a good idea. If you have solid gains and you decide to keep trading, you have to have a point where you will lock in your profits for the day and give no more back, if you fall below that point. If you start to over trade and make mistakes, you can give back what you worked hard to get. That is the reason for backing off on size at the end of the day when you already have your daily goal and good profits. You will be a conservative trader with this approach.  This is about money management as well.

Do not let greed creep into your mind and find yourself shooting for the stars. More is fine when it is the appropriate time. I would say that if any one is just starting out and you do not have anyone helping you through the process, you should only be trading for a small daily target. I recommend about 2 points and not really any more than that.  The reason is, you do not have enough experience to deal with all of the changes the market will throw at you. Eventually you will get taken out. That is the hard cold facts.

We all like to think it won’t happen to us, but that is presumptuous on on our part. Being honest with yourself is the first step to victory and that victory can come in the form of two points a day. If you can pick that up, consider it a big victory and try and do it again tomorrow.  A common scenario is, you will pick up a few points and think it is easy, then let your guard down.  The market then gives you a read that you have not seen, or are not familiar with, and the gains are gone. You then say, “Iwill get that back,” and don’t exercise patience having already lost your focus, because you are thinking about the money and your losses increase.

You have to be able to stop yourself, if this is happening and walk away. Clear your mind and when you take your next trade, don’t be thinking about anything else, other than the process. Are you doing the right thing based on the method? Don’t be thinking about getting even with the markets. That has been called, REVENGE TRADING and it can do a lot of damage, not only to your account, but more importantly to your ability to have confidence in what you are doing.

By losing your focus and discipline, trading like this, you only join the ranks of so many others who thought they could. The battle is greatly in your mind. That is why I have some very good books on my web site to help you with the process. If you have not read any of them, I recommend that you do. Some of them are not even related to trading, but it sure does apply and can help with many other areas of your life as a bonus.

http://www.screencast.com/t/MHjVQ0SI8L              Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/qBfXqtoGBXq             Live trade video

http://www.screencast.com/t/ITUh0ylJ                      Still shot of some trades, end of the day             

http://www.screencast.com/t/M4FpJW2M8kx          Still shot of Daily S&P

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Federal Reserve takes drastic step, Buys 300 Billion in Treasuries

Thursday, March 19th, 2009

Today is March 18th and the Federal Reserve took a big step to buy treasuries.

All I can say is, “What a day.”

I did not know that today was a Fed decision day. Shame on me. I usually check the economic calender for that. I don’t usually pay too much attention to news, because it always shows up in the price anyway, but that is one I always look for – because of the explosive moves following the news.

It usually happens at 11:15 am West Coast time and I was in a trade just before the announcement, with only 1 contract and then, boom, a 10 point move for the S&P in minutes. I re-entered for another move up after a consolidation for another 11 point move and again I only had on 1 contract. I kept re-entering long, and some short, to the very top of the market.

The S&P hit 800, which was the support at the purple trend line that I had talked about a couple of months ago. Support, when broken, usually then becomes resistance and the market traded right up into that resistance. After noticing that,  combined with the fact that now we had traded exactly to a 62% retacement from 873, the last recent high, to 666, the last recent low and back to 62% retracement at 800 and previous resistance, it made more sense that this would be a higher target for the market to trade up to. And it did – with me in it.

Once the top was reached I saw a good spot for a short and went with it, still trading very light, I think I had 2 contracts there. That was good for about 12 points to the downside. I must have had about 50 S&P points in all, which is about 25 times the amount I need to get my daily goal of 2 points, but that would be at 5 contracts. I traded very small once my equity started to get over $1,500, but it added up real fast for a finish to the day at $5,500 after commission. I took 33 trades total. Yes, that was a lot. But it still turned out better than 75% winning trades in about 3 hours. I have a couple of short video’s showing some of this, take a look below, at the end of the first one is where the Fed released the news and the market shot up.

I must say, that I was a little surprised that the Federal Reserve said that it was going to buy 300 billion in Treasury securities on the open market and 750 billion more in mortgage backed securities, bringing their direct involvement to 1.25 trillion. This is the first time they have done this since 1960. Does anyone know what that means? To me it looks like there was no one to buy the treasuries. China said last week they were very concerned with the U.S. debt market.

Do you know that the Federal Reserve is a private corporation for profit and is not a federal agency. It’s as much Federal as Federal Express. If you did not know that, all you have to do is Google it. The Federal Reserve is owned by a group of private banks from the U.S. and Europe. Basically, the government brokered out the job to a private banking corporation. I know this may be a shock for many, but people are reacting to the news like this is a good thing. This group is beyond reproach and no one has ever performed an audit on this group.

It is relative to the markets and to the economic equation because, while it is holding interest rates down for now, it will have a reverse effect in the near future. The Gold market did not like the news at all trading up nearly 6% for the day at 965 an ounce. The dollar did not like the news at all either, dropping against all major currencies. But the stock market did like it, or so it thought.

It is going to be good for the market in the short run – how long that is, I don’t know – but in the long run, it will be disastrous. There is so much money being floated out there right now that no one can keep up with it.

Here is another thing you may not have known. The total bail out so far is said to be 8-9 trillion dollars. That is a lot of money. Again, why is that relevant? It is going to cause inflation like nobody’s business. All I can say is be careful with your long term money. Let’s hope the market moves up over the next few months giving those who want to get out of their long term investments an opportunity.

Everyone has been trained in thinking, “it will come back, it always does”. This time could be different. Do your own research and think for yourself. Don’t listen to the experts and don’t even listen to me on these matters, but spend the time and check it out.

If you do a Google search using “total bail out so far”, you will get a few figures, but they are all up in the range I mentioned. It is nowhere near the figures we hear on the nightly news.

Sorry for the ramble, but it kind of ticks me off when I hear news like this. To those who are considering a career in trading and have the risk capital, the time to make money is now. The markets are moving nicely up and down and there is profit to be had for those who can wade their way through the noise.

http://www.screencast.com/t/FifEKWgjVXr               Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/u9xVvzQlpfW             Some of today’s live trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/kTfMA2×13w              Some of today’s live trades

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Posted in Market News | 1 Comment »

Wall Street Rally – Mission accomplished

Tuesday, March 10th, 2009

It is Tuesday March 10th and boy did we get a rally.

It was nice to see the market rally today, because yesterday I stuck my neck out with a bold market call. I stated that the market should move up nicely off the low end support and rally up at least +185 points plus. When you see patterns and formations thousands of times, you can come to expect repeatable patterns when the conditions are right. That is what I saw in yesterday’ s close, a market that was ripe for a move up.

Technical Analysis is the study of price action patterns combined with support and resistance. It takes a lot of screen time to be able to spot those patterns so that they are second nature to your eyes. Meaning it does not take long to be able to identify whether a pattern is bullish or bearish and have the confidence to be able to place a trade in that direction.

I feel blessed to have the amount of screen time that I do, because it has made me a better trader overall. There are so few people who can process the amount of information you need quick enough to trade the short term swings and, as I said, I feel fortunate to be able to do so. As time goes on, I would expect that anyone who comes into my trading group would have the benefit of years of market knowledge available to them. It is not easy to be consistent, it takes work, and I feel, if you are going to cut down the time it takes to learn how to trade, you will definitely need a mentor. It does not have to be me, but it can be if you choose.

I did not have a mentor and learned how to trade by myself over many years. If I had the benefit of a mentor years ago, I could have learned a lot faster. One of the reasons I didn’t was I could not find anyone I could trust and who I thought really understood how the market flows. So, I worked through it all by myself.

You can see through my videos and postings and consistent trading that I do know how the market works and how to capture daily profit from it. I will soon be gathering up a group of traders who want to learn my method of trading and be able to pull good money out of the market each day. If you are one of them, send me an email message and I will get back to you with more details. I will write about this again in the coming days.

Today’ s trading went very well. I had 10 trades with 8 gains and 2 losses. I split some of the exits up for some increased profits again today and was still trading small, but had very good profit of around $ 1,200 plus for the session.

Again some of my trades below.

http://www.screencast.com/t/LnlvBx6z             Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/ZckxwreoV        Screen shot early trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/9kx1aNNQxfu    Live -some of todays trades

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Posted in Market Call | No Comments »

Market continues sell off & Nice smooth day of gains

Tuesday, February 24th, 2009

It is Monday February 23rd and the markets continue their sell off.

We did not get a bounce, but a sell off today. I checked the exact number on the S&P bottom of November and  I see that the market went right down to it, at 742, and stopped. The Dow continued it’s slide falling 250 point to 7,114. I may have been a day early, but I still think we are in for a bounce.

The whole economic picture is pretty bleak. It has been said that the more the government does, the worse things get. I would agree with that, but that is just my opinion. Actually, I take that back. The facts would say that this is true – so far.

I do not want to be a downer to my readers, but I have been ”Bearish” on the market for some time, as many of you know. I have been hoping the slide takes a break and gives us all a little more time to get things together. But again, the market does not listen me.

A while back I had posted on the daily chart of the S&P that this market needed to stay above the 800 level – or else. Well, it is looking like the or else is happening. The daily chart has been in a solid downtrend since the purple line of support was broken on a daily basis. It has been confirmed by the indicator as well and nothing at this time has changed. The Monthly is down, the Weekly is down, the Daily is down and even the Hourly is down. It has been that way for the last 5 days now.  That is what I had to tell myself in looking at the slide today. Everything is down, don’t fight the trend.

Below is a chart of the S&P cash and my equity chart for the day. This is the start of week #4 and I have been posting my equity gains and losses every day.  I have not posted a losing day as of yet, and I don’t plan on it, but it could happen. My daily loss limit is two times my daily goal of 2 pts per day, so that would be a total of -4 points. If I am trading 5 contracts, then that would be 1,000 before commission. As I said yesterday, I came up to that point only one time and was able to turn it around for several times positive daily goal. Most of the trading days have been met with 2, 3, 4 times daily goal and up, so overall, I am pleased with my performance.

http://www.screencast.com/t/B7sIbT9SjS7                          Some of today’s trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/mQP1X38U7s                        Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/tOxsYylTb                               S&P Daily chart

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Posted in Profit Day | No Comments »

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