Posts Tagged ‘Support and Resistance’

Price Action Day Trading

Friday, March 19th, 2010

Today is March 19th and the markets saw some nice price action from the start of the session.

That is where it began today, with a slight rise just after the open. It was like someone pulled the plug and down she went. The market was just in a continuation off the lows of yesterday where it put in a bottom and worked its way up to a double top formation just after the open. Sellers were there in force and the market dropped 15 S&P points top to bottom, 1165 to 1150 where it pulled up at the close to end the session 1156.

The market will be working against this selling pressure on Monday morning with a few more S&P points left to the upside before initial resistance comes in. So, we shall see. As day traders we need to read the market and interpret what we see. But trading is a little like chess, in that you always want to look out ahead and anticipate what your opponent will do next. That is fine, but just don’t be to convinced about every move. If something different happens than you projected, it can be very difficult to trade against an anchored believe, so hold your opinions loosely and interpret what you see as it unfolds.

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Traders, investors, institutions, move to position themselves in the stock market every day so that they are able to take advantage of price appreciation. Basically they want to make money for themselves and there clients, a worthy goal. Every investor or trader can not make money so there have to be people that come up short. How do we consistently become the ones that come out on top and  pull this off ?

Study the price patterns and behavior of other traders. Since most traders and investors loose money, we don’t want to do what most of them are doing, that is clear. So how do we ultimately know when to buy and sell ?

The answers to those questions as stated is in studying the price. Price action is, first “price” and “action”, or price movement. Successful traders need to focus on price movement and that seems obvious to most, but this is not what often times happen. Trading indicators often take center stage, but it should be the other way around. Indicators are good, but not at the expense of studying the price patterns and behavior of the underlying issue.

It boils down to when to buy and when to sell, another obvious conclusion. The question is how much risk can you take to see your desired outcome? Traders to often take on more risk than they can absorb as there entries are far to lose. You need precision entries that are virtually spot on. Some may say, that is not possible and I beg to differ. There is always a small window of tolerance on any trade, but it should be kept down to a minimum if you expect to keep your loses under control.

For me, while I day trade the price action on the S&P 500 emini’s I rarely ever risk more than 1 S&P point. There is 4 ticks to a point each broken up into $12.50 incriments per contract. A trader needs only to find a few points per day to make a  nice living, but you need to be able to really read the price movement, formations and tendencies all while keeping your stops to a minimum.

Being successful is also about knowing how to manage the trade after your order is filled. In a choppy market, you can not let the market move in your favor by several points and because you want more, hold out, only to see all of the gains that you had, suddenly evaporated and then some. A trader who expects to either supplement his income or make a living from day trading can not let something like that happen.

Today’s trading was a good example. I put on four trades towards the end of the day and the last one was at 12:30 pm West Coast. The market dropped off a ledge it was holding onto for several hours. It looked like a possible rally was at hand but things changed and down she went very quickly. I did go short at exactly the spot I wanted and scaled out at +2 ticks, +6 ticks and +12 ticks at the very bottom. I was in scalp mode and prepared to ride the momentum on that trade down. I was buying into weakness (to cover my short position at a profit) and held out until there was no more left in the move.

The point is, I am sure there were traders who did not cover and watched in just a few moments the move completely reverse, forcing them to cover at a lose. If you are day trading the price action you will not let that happen to you. I feel if you have good gains in any trade, there is no way you can let that trade turn into a lose. If you struggle to take your stops, you have other issues at hand which can be discussed in another post.

Price Action Day Trading happens every day the markets are open. This is the study of price movement or price bars in any time frame and that alone, no indicators or anything else. Most traders use indicators to help them see what the charts are saying, but a pure play is in reading the chart alone in this manner.

To day trade successfully you need to understand the key components of support and resistance, price action is apart of that at its core, learn this and you will be moving forward.

If traders have questions about this topic or any other trading topic, feel free to email me. I will be glad to answer your trading questions. Until next time, trade on and be safe

Day Trading with Support and Resistance

Thursday, March 4th, 2010

Today is Wednesday March 3rd and the S&P futures put in a small gain for the day.

The market was virtually flat today and off its highs, closing closer to its low for the session. The short term momentum has been lost with the hourly chart just about to turn down. The daily chart is still holding it momentum edge, but time will tell how it fares going forward.

You can see in the chart I have below, that there is containment taking place in the Dow and it is holding the other index’s back. We may see prices stay inside of the Dow formation until a clear break out is again present. That break out can come in bullish or bearish fashion and does represent a good longer term trading opportunity. For day traders, that may mean two to three days. So, the thing to do is watch how prices handle the edges of that formation. Until then, you could see some consolidation inside the range.

The Dow has shown resistance 9 days, as the red line across the top has proven itself to be clear “TRADING RESISTANCE” overhead. As the bottoms of the chart move up, you have what is called a “Rising Wedge” in a downtrend.

I would have to call the current position of the overall market in a downtrend. The weekly chart is clearly down, with the daily charts trading counter trend to that. Even if the current pattern were to move all the way back up to the old high, you would put in a classic double top, at which time would be met with selling. All the people who wish that they got out at the previous high, will not miss there second chance and have there finger on the trigger.

For those who follow daily charts in stocks and options, this is where you want to watch volume. If the volume is weak as prices rise, that is a pretty good indication that the market is rotating into weak hands and more susceptible to a drop. I just looked at some of the volume figures for the S&P and it at this point it does look like the big up days were on lighter volume and the larger volume days saw little directional movement. In addition, the four big sell off days, (2 & 2) came on very large volume. That is typical for this type of move. With that said, the market can still move higher, if it breaks out of the over head resistance area, but it is possible that it will only be short lived if it does.

All of these issues are taken into consideration when understanding support and resistance. Looking at price structure with support and resistance in mind, will bring a clearer picture for where we go from here.

We had a few nice days up and I would have to say the move that I was looking for is complete. We may move higher, but not until the Dow can break out over the resistance area mentioned.

On another note; I came back from the S.F Bay Area to Northern Cal (close to Oregon) last night. I got caught in a snow storm with “white out” conditions, wow, that was not fun. I was exhausted when I got home. No time to update my blog.

Yesterday I did trade for just a few minutes and took only one trade. I did something from the day before that I don’t usually do. I carried one of the three contracts over into yesterdays session and sold near the high of the day. I took one trade for one point and hit it. When I closed it out, it took the “first in – first out” approach, so the new position had one left over. My stop was hit before the market could turn the corner, which was fine for a 6.50 gain from yesterday.

Today, I had one of those off days. I think driving white knuckled for so long, must have had an impact on me. I just did not have good judgment today. My first trade was a small gain, but I had three losses in a row and stopped. I was down about 2.75 point and could have taken another trade or two to try and come back, but I could see I was not thinking clearly and packed it in. I did not even feel like trading, so I thought, why push it. That is a good lesson for me. If I don’t think I am firing on all eight cylinders, take a day off. There is no rule that says you have to trade.

Well, that is it for tonight, I will have more to say tomorrow as we get new developments.

Good Trading to all.

Fear & Day Trading – continued

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

Today is Tuesday, January 19th and the market moved right on time, S&P up 14 points and Dow up 114.

We were on that critical support and other traders knew that too, that is why I feel they stepped up to the plate and bid the market up. When you have trend days, where direction is mostly one way, price action is and looks different.

You won’t have that back and forth price moves that are usually present, but shallow pull backs with continuation moves in the direction of the trend.

If you came late to the party, after the first hour, there were really only 3 moves of any significance for the rest of the day and they were all up, but not anything large, maybe a couple of points each. There was a dead spot today from 10:00 am to 12:30 pm West Coast, that probably killed a lot of traders. There was no movement, even after the New York lunch, there was absolutely nothing. I had not seen it that slow during that time, as far as price range is concerned, in a long time.

I quite trading around 12:00 and hour before the close and did not hit my trading goal for the day. It is really alright, I was not worried about that part, I can make it up later this week, but I was getting a little frustrated. My entries were not very good today and ended the day flat with 4 small gains, 4 small loses, and 3 break even. The commission cost for the transactions put me under just a little. I did had my chances but it was one of those days. I did see the market move out for one more push at the end of the day, but I had stopped.

I did not want any more of my emotions to work negatively against me, so I just stopped. I was really OK with that. This is a little lesson for me. Can I stop trading if I don’t like the price action. The answer is ”Yes”. When the conditions are more favorable for me, I can step it up. So, for the things just mentioned I still felt good over all. Staying in control is so much apart of being successful, it can be the breaking point for many traders. Frustration sets in and then you begin to make reckless trades, “don’t do that”.

OK, back to where I left off yesterday; I was laying out fears that traders often experience and commenting.

Fear;  Afraid of being wrong. This is a common one and I will expose it. When you trade, non of us know if the trade is going to work out or not. At that point we are all on a level playing ground. The difference is, one trader knows what he is looking for and when he see’s it, feels comfortable enough to put the trade on. He has a high degree of confidence, only because he has seen it work out before when the conditions were the same. On the other hand, the trader that does not have screen time and does not know what he is looking for, is like a guy poking around in the dark looking for the light switch. If you are that guy, then it is normal and understandable that you will experience fear and or be afraid as you put a trade on. You may not have the screen time you really need to go forward, but you decide to push the envelope and start trading anyway. The result is, you place trades out of fear and uncertainty. Your results are going to suffer and eventually, the market will drain your funds. Traders tend to increase their mistakes and exhibit poor judgment when faced with this emotion running through them. Dont’ let that be you. Get educated, trade your plan and stick with in. Stay in control. If you feel you are starting to lose it, STOP. There is always tomorrow.

Fear; Fear of failure before friends. This is something I learned a long time ago. If you are telling your friends and people you know about your trading venture, it is a big mistake. Let me say that again. I feel if you talk much about your trading to others, it is only going to hurt you form getting to the very place you want to go. There are many reasons for this. One is, we tend to build ourselves up greater than we should and when we don’t live up to what we have spoken, we feel like a failure and this increases pressure. If you are under increased pressure, your trading is going to suffer. When your friends ask you how is it going, you will feel compelled to either tell the truth or lie. If you tell the truth, you make yourself out to look foolish, since all they heard about for months was how you were going to make it big. If you tell a lie and make yourself look better than it actually is, that will only add to many more problems down the road and stretching the truth like this, is not good for anyone. So, either way, you loose. Don’t put yourself under more pressure than you have to. If people know what you are doing, you can tell them, but keep it real simple, don’t get into details and play it all down. You will be better off in the long run to meet your real goal, steady profitability.

Fear; Afraid of never making it as a day trader. If you are not ready to compete in the ring, don’t enter yet. If you are afraid of not making it, it may just be a nice early warning signal for you to do more study on price action.  How and why prices move up and down, support and resistance, pivot points, price patterns, etc. To often, traders look for the “Holy Grail”, whether it is an indicator or automated system or what have ya. Traders should learn the things above and know them like the back of their hand. The market is not going to hand everyone victory. We need to stay humble in our trading and keep learning. It is not easy, but for those dedicated and have the right direction it is possible.

I offer such direction for those seeking. Email me, with your questions and get the trading edge.

vinnie@sniperdaytrading.com

http://www.screencast.com/t/NjdiMTk3

Technical Analysis: Video Trading Lesson Today

Thursday, June 4th, 2009

Today is Wednesday, June 3rd and we are starting to get a pull back in the markets.

Today the markets made a nice late rally to recover from a steeper sell off it was seeing earlier in the day. The Dow was only off around 65 points, not too bad. With a close up off the lows, it sets the tone for an early rally tomorrow, but we may not be done to the downside. I

have no predictions on where prices are going at this point. I will tell you that we did hit an upside objective with the 940 S&P number being hit and completed that I had called. We are still in an uptrend, there has not been any damage to the chart and until then, you have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.

There is some heavy resistance at the 940-950 area so that is going to be a very critical area to watch. I previously had in my mind that we would see some kind of a pull back and a lot of people will think this is more of a correction than it really is and start shorting the market. That could be a mistake. A pull back would be normal from here, but everything about this market right now is not normal.

I do  think overall we will see higher prices over the summer, that I am pretty sure about, but be careful, I don’t think it is going to last. By this September and October, we are going to have problems holding on to any meaningful gains going into the end of the year. I am a bear long term and do think the lows on the S&P and Dow are going to get taken out in a very big way. For now enjoy the mini Bull and get some of that 401K money back.

I am a bit cynical about how things are run around the good old USA. I believe the powers that be know exactly what is going on and when any changes are taking place. If you ask yourself, did “THEY” know that the market was going to tank last year?  Here, let me answer that one for you, YES.  Did they know that it was going to turn and when?  I can’t help myself, let me answer that one too, YES.

Our leader came out on the airwaves three days before the bottom on the S&P at (interesting number, I did not pick it) 666. That would make him a pretty good market timer if you ask me. Just three days earlier everyone thought the very worst. After that third day people who took his advice have done really well. I don’t know if anyone knows that, but it’s true.

What if people put a lot of new money in the market and it did not work out? Mr. O would not be looking too good right now and he could not have that.  The reason he could come out and make a stock market call like he did was because, well, you make your own conclusions. We hear that things are getting better and I am all for that, Ya-Ya.  I always say to keep an open mind and think for yourself. This will be one of those times, even as I give my opinion. That is all it is, my opinion.

In today’s trading, I did well, had taken a few small trades early, some up and some down, but saw a very nice high probability trade to capture a big move to the downside. I put it on, took not one tick of heat and picked up 6 & 1/4 points on that trade. I held it for a while which was painful in and of itself. I am not usually in a trade for as long as I was, but I played it for the extended move out of a higher time frame and that is what it gave me. I got in just as the market told me and got out just as it said “get out”. I did give it a few extra ticks of room, just in case it was a fake out. I have a chart of it below.  All in all, 3 times my daily goal. A lot of early trades were split trades with different exits.

Trading Lesson: Below is a short video of how you can use support and resistance by plotting  parallel channels. I cover how you can use them in your trading to give you some possible insight on where prices can go before they get there. It is not a science but it is something that gets played out everyday. Take the insight that I give you here today and check it out on the markets. It may take some time to be able to spot these, but when up and down trends play out, you should be able to apply some of these ideas to give you an edge.

Technical analysis is the study of price movement through patterns, support and resistance, and general price fluctuations. You can draw conclusions as prices move from one area of support to another area of resistance and use that information to trade accordingly. Even if you spot these patterns, you still have to know how to play it, with low risk entries in mind.  Check back for more insight and ideas.   Anyone interested in learning more please feel free to email me. I will do my best to answer your questions.

http://www.screencast.com/t/LuSFBV59R Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/3bLxmtzYZI One of today’s trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/HMBxbNpJ7 Trading lesson, 5 minute video

Market Rebounds Right on Time

Monday, May 18th, 2009

Today is Monday, May 18th and the market puts in a nice rebound day as expected.

Very nice day today to the upside as I had said in Fridays blog. The Dow was up around 230 point and the S&P 26 points. About half of the move was before the market opened, so full participation on the move by all was slightly hampered.

Over the course of this week we should see some higher prices overall and retest the old highs of last week. I had said a couple weeks ago that I was expecting prices to go to around 940 on the S&P and we came up to around 930 and backed off.

I still think the market will want to push itself up into that outside resistance area which is around 940 ish. That would give us a slightly higher high and would put in a nice fat pivot point to trade short off of, if in fact we get it.

If today’s lows get taken out, all bets may be off. Today’s low is the line in the sand for this move of the last couple of months. If it gets taken out, the move should be back to the middle of the previous range at a minimum.

In today’s trading, I did good, picking up my daily goal, as I have come to expect. But I did take a few stops on some split trades early on. I had missed three real good trades because of my computer acting slow at the order point, very frustrating. Others who were following me had no problems picking up those good entries, capturing their points early on. I took a break after the first hour and finished up a little later, capturing a few nice trades to more than put me over the top for today.

I still have not upgraded my trading software which is going to fix the problem I have had with posting my equity chart like I had been, but I have included today a short video of a few trades that I actually took and a recap of the day’s trading signals in another video.

I will post the video on cattle futures maybe tomorrow that I did on the weekend. This is just showing that if you understand how price action works, combined with support and resistance and other techniques, that you will be able to put yourself in front of trades that can carry you to profitability no matter what you like to trade.

Trading Lesson:    Trading is by no means easy, but you can do a few things to put the odds of profitability in your favor. One of those things, as it has been talked about in trading circles, is to control your emotions. Emotions make people do things that they would not otherwise do. Fear and Greed can make people enter bad positions and take you out of good ones.

One of the ways to help overcome some of these problems is to be able to settle in your mind what is a good trading goal for the day. If you want to be a millionaire and you want it to happen now, that is not a realistic objective. If you want to replace other income with trading income, you still need to answer the question:  How much is enough?

If you are realistic, and come up with a modest figure and work towards that goal slowly, you will have a far better chance in reaching that, but more importantly, sustaining that over a long period of time. I have come up with a figure that will work for me and it seems reasonable at 2-3 S&P points per day. I have not had any problem getting to this figure for months now and it is because my expectations are reasonable in what I can safely take out of the market today, tomorrow and the next.

If your expectations are 8-10 points per day, that is not realistic over a long period of time. You may be able to hit that some days, but the psychological pressure you will be putting yourself under to obtain that figure will take a toll on you over time. It will make you reach for trades that are just not there, inevitably making costly mistakes and having to struggle to just make up for those mis-trades. If you are honest and realistic with your daily goal, assuming that you have one, something much smaller is sustainable and will not create the anxiety that hitting such a lofty goal will put you under.

That being said, once you hit your goal and you are in sync with the market flow, you can at times continue to trade but you should consider cutting down on your trade size. This will again take the pressure off and allow you to concentrate on the just the pure move, by removing some of the fear that can creep in by trading your P&L.   If you trade on your own, you have to be your own risk manager, there is no one there to rein you in if you put your account at risk by taking multiple losses. Do you have a plan if that happens?  You should, because it happens to everyone at some point and others all too often.

We as traders need to always work on performance as a means of extending your personal mastery. This is done by repeating the same base trade setups that happen again and again each and every day. Waiting for the trade to come to you is key. You cannot go looking for it, you will get lost. The markets have a rhythm to each and every one of them. A collection of people’s emotions taking prices up and down. I have said this before but it bears repeating. Find the rhythm and go with it.  Doing so will put you into a small group of traders that can, versus the traders that can’t. Which do you aspire to be?

http://www.screencast.com/t/8ce2iH3Df              Some of today’s available trades

Wall Street Rally – Mission accomplished

Tuesday, March 10th, 2009

It is Tuesday March 10th and boy did we get a rally.

It was nice to see the market rally today, because yesterday I stuck my neck out with a bold market call. I stated that the market should move up nicely off the low end support and rally up at least +185 points plus. When you see patterns and formations thousands of times, you can come to expect repeatable patterns when the conditions are right. That is what I saw in yesterday’ s close, a market that was ripe for a move up.

Technical Analysis is the study of price action patterns combined with support and resistance. It takes a lot of screen time to be able to spot those patterns so that they are second nature to your eyes. Meaning it does not take long to be able to identify whether a pattern is bullish or bearish and have the confidence to be able to place a trade in that direction.

I feel blessed to have the amount of screen time that I do, because it has made me a better trader overall. There are so few people who can process the amount of information you need quick enough to trade the short term swings and, as I said, I feel fortunate to be able to do so. As time goes on, I would expect that anyone who comes into my trading group would have the benefit of years of market knowledge available to them. It is not easy to be consistent, it takes work, and I feel, if you are going to cut down the time it takes to learn how to trade, you will definitely need a mentor. It does not have to be me, but it can be if you choose.

I did not have a mentor and learned how to trade by myself over many years. If I had the benefit of a mentor years ago, I could have learned a lot faster. One of the reasons I didn’t was I could not find anyone I could trust and who I thought really understood how the market flows. So, I worked through it all by myself.

You can see through my videos and postings and consistent trading that I do know how the market works and how to capture daily profit from it. I will soon be gathering up a group of traders who want to learn my method of trading and be able to pull good money out of the market each day. If you are one of them, send me an email message and I will get back to you with more details. I will write about this again in the coming days.

Today’ s trading went very well. I had 10 trades with 8 gains and 2 losses. I split some of the exits up for some increased profits again today and was still trading small, but had very good profit of around $ 1,200 plus for the session.

Again some of my trades below.

http://www.screencast.com/t/LnlvBx6z             Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/ZckxwreoV        Screen shot early trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/9kx1aNNQxfu    Live -some of todays trades

Day two / Sample Training

Tuesday, February 10th, 2009

Today is day two of a small sample training video I have put together.

Take advantage of the training and see how and why I do what I do. It is pretty straight forward and fairly easy to follow. It is only a small sample of what you could learn here. Trading is about support and resistance combined with probabilities and pattern recognition. You need to learn how to read the charts, naked. By that I mean price action alone should be enough in and of itself to make your buy and sell decisions. My method will work in any time frame like I have said previously. It can be applied to daily stock charts as well as commodities, forex currencies and for sure the S&P 500 E-Mini’s. It takes time to be able to understand so many other factors, but having a basic understanding of where price break entries are at, is the first key. Knowing where is your lowest risk point in any trade and knowing exactly where you are going to get out is imperative. I never put a trade on without having a stop in place at the same time. At times I trade without a target, but never without a stop. Having the right timing is what will make or break you. This all goes with knowing how to trade, understanding pivot points, price rejection, chart formations, breakouts, retracements and how to play each of them, will take time, but the rewards can be beyond your dreams for the dedicated.

It was a big day on the street today. The market did not like what the treasury secretary had to say about the financial mess. One thing I heard was, that there was not many specifics, what can you expect, looks like I see a pattern here. You could trade off of that pattern and that is what the street did today and decided to sell, sell and sell some more, minus 4 to 5 % for the market. It took us down to bounce off of the lower end of the range ,(purple support line I have drawn and spoke of before). I might add, if we break down from here, it could be lights out. That line has been hit about 7 or 8 times now. There is going to be a lot of sellers on the other side of that, I can assure you of that. Lets all hope it holds, for everyone sake.  I think sooner or later, it is going to break and we are going to go down several thousand more points on the Dow, but I hope it is not now. It is just a loose opinion that I have and not one that I hold onto tightly. The weekly chart tried to go positive this week, but was meet with what I call price rejection. Trend is still in tack for now, but tomorrow is going to be key, it needs to hold.

Today’s trading was fairly quick, about 20 minutes to reach my daily goal and that was good enough for me. Trades posted below. Have a great day!   Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/TfnwXw0zEsU           Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/nvcf6ZTr                      Todays Trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/i2ZoV6Wk                   Sample  Training day #2