Posts Tagged ‘S&P 500’

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Day two / Sample Training

Tuesday, February 10th, 2009

Today is day two of a small sample training video I have put together.

Take advantage of the training and see how and why I do what I do. It is pretty straight forward and fairly easy to follow. It is only a small sample of what you could learn here. Trading is about support and resistance combined with probabilities and pattern recognition. You need to learn how to read the charts, naked. By that I mean price action alone should be enough in and of itself to make your buy and sell decisions. My method will work in any time frame like I have said previously. It can be applied to daily stock charts as well as commodities, forex currencies and for sure the S&P 500 E-Mini’s. It takes time to be able to understand so many other factors, but having a basic understanding of where price break entries are at, is the first key. Knowing where is your lowest risk point in any trade and knowing exactly where you are going to get out is imperative. I never put a trade on without having a stop in place at the same time. At times I trade without a target, but never without a stop. Having the right timing is what will make or break you. This all goes with knowing how to trade, understanding pivot points, price rejection, chart formations, breakouts, retracements and how to play each of them, will take time, but the rewards can be beyond your dreams for the dedicated.

It was a big day on the street today. The market did not like what the treasury secretary had to say about the financial mess. One thing I heard was, that there was not many specifics, what can you expect, looks like I see a pattern here. You could trade off of that pattern and that is what the street did today and decided to sell, sell and sell some more, minus 4 to 5 % for the market. It took us down to bounce off of the lower end of the range ,(purple support line I have drawn and spoke of before). I might add, if we break down from here, it could be lights out. That line has been hit about 7 or 8 times now. There is going to be a lot of sellers on the other side of that, I can assure you of that. Lets all hope it holds, for everyone sake.  I think sooner or later, it is going to break and we are going to go down several thousand more points on the Dow, but I hope it is not now. It is just a loose opinion that I have and not one that I hold onto tightly. The weekly chart tried to go positive this week, but was meet with what I call price rejection. Trend is still in tack for now, but tomorrow is going to be key, it needs to hold.

Today’s trading was fairly quick, about 20 minutes to reach my daily goal and that was good enough for me. Trades posted below. Have a great day!   Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/TfnwXw0zEsU           Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/nvcf6ZTr                      Todays Trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/i2ZoV6Wk                   Sample  Training day #2

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Training series / First in a nine part series

Monday, February 9th, 2009

Hello, this post is for Monday, February 9 th, 2009 and today I will begin a 9 part sample training series on how to trade the S&P 500 E-Mini Futures for daily profit.

I know some of you missed Saturday’s training with conflicting schedules, but I have decided to give out some of my material to the readers of this blog. The information is, I feel, very valuable to the person who is trying to find a method that has the ability to take money out of the market every day.

All traders are different, in that you may find a group of traders who all use the same method, but they all use different entries and get different results. That being said, you can train yourself to react in a consistent fashion when you have repeatable patterns presented to you. The main idea is to walk away with a modest profit and do it again the next day and so on. It is a very attainable goal if you know what to do.

The first thing anyone who aspires to become a successful day trader is you need to know how to trade. That may sound a little simplistic, but you would be surprised at how many people do not trade with a plan but by the seat of their pants. I don’t mean to offend anyone out there who is able to trade this way, but whatever feels good or looks good usually does not produce consistent results.

There are so few people who are able to be successful at this. In a way, I guess that’s good because the returns would not be as large as they can be for some. For the person who makes a million dollars a year, the odds drop way down. One of the reasons for that is most people are not able to 1) trade profitably and consistently;  2) they cannot overcome the mental aspect of trading . You first need to know how, then you need to work on yourself in ways you may have never thought about before. Sounds like a lot of work and it is. Nothing worth while is ever easy, cheap and without cost.

Have you ever thought of the main reason for your trading pursuits?  One of the many benefits I find rewarding about living a trader’s lifestyle is you have the ability to make your own hours. For me, that is a high on my priority list. Not having to work for someone else is without a doubt high in the ranking. You know, the money is not as important for me as it may be for others, because I don’t need so much to meet my daily needs. The time freedom is probably the most valuable to me. The money just affords the opportunity to take advantage of that benefit. The answer to the question above is going to be different for everyone, but it is a good question, so maybe give it some thought.

This business is not for everyone and I will be the first one to tell you that. You need to have a desire and/or a passion to pursue this seriously because you will be going up against professional traders worldwide. You cannot take a casual approach and expect to consistently come out on top.  

Back to the training series. I have part one of a nine part series posted below. These are only 5 minute clips and they will continue the next day where I left off. The nine parts will last a total of 45 minutes and this represents just one complete trading day. I have moved up my chart to a 233 tick chart from what I usually trade, 100 tick.  I look at 3 different time frames during the day and make my final trading decision in the 100 tick. When you trade a higher time frame chart, two things happen. You usually need to account for a bigger stop, so your target needs to be higher as well to account for that, and the second thing is you have fewer trade setups.

The smallest time frame for me is the 100 tick as I have said and this is basically a scalping method by definition (taking small profits of a few ticks to a few points). I find that, it would be advantageous for someone to trade a separate account for a different style. Like trading for larger point runs based on the appropriate trade setup. With this style, I do like to gradually scale out of trades when I see nice chart patterns present themselves. Maybe taking off the first part at 1 to 2 points, then the second at 2 to 3 points and the rest, let it go to where ever the market says get out, that is easy to identify with my method.

I might add, there is another way I have handled nice trade setups and that is, I would identify the next biggest time frame up from the 100 (I usually go up in incriments of 4, for me that would be the 400 tick chart). When I see a nice pattern in the 400, that I know in the past has produced nice movement, I look to the 100 tick and go long with a standard order, lets just say 3 contracts. I will add another 3 at a new break out with my new stop in place and move up my old stop to the second add on spot. I will add again at a new break out treating it as a separate order with its own separate stop.  In a 10 point run you may be able to add 4 or 5 times safely without any additional risk other than your first order. Basically, I am pyramiding my position for maximum return without the risk. You stay within the larger trend which is pushing you higher and add in the smaller time frame for maximum return. You can do that if you are able to recognize patterns and be ready with your plan in place. Keep that in mind when you view the short video’s.

You can see the patterns more easily in a larger time frame. That is why I have gone up to the 233 tick chart. It does not matter the time frame, everything is always the same. There are a lot of ways to trade and no one can say that my way is the best way, because it may be the best way for you but different for others. I would say, I do like the 233 tick chart and I have traded it before. It is the maximum time frame I can go and still keep a small 5 tick stop, so it is a very good alternative to the 100 tick, which may be a little too fast for someone who is just starting out. This is still plenty fast and the trade setups are still fairly frequent. When I counted the trade triggers generated in the one day, there were 50 possible trades for this time frame (233 tick)

Again, the training is broken down into 9 segments of 5 minutes each, given to you one each day and represents the full trading day of  Thursday, February 5th, 2009.  By the way, Friday’s market action looks the same as Thursday’s and Wednesday’s looks the same as Friday’s, they all  more or less look the same, repeatable trading patterns that happen over and over again.

This is just a sample of what you can learn with me. If you decide to partner with me, you will be able to follow me in the morning for 30 to 60 minutes, capturing your daily goal. I think you will be nicely rewarded with new knowledge, experience and hopefully some extra cash to go along with it. 

Ask about my “Mentoring Special”, Learn While You Earn.

Have a great day!

Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/WhGbWgD8Y                     Sample Training part  #1

http://www.screencast.com/t/44E4Uu492Qt                   Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/tBnsAUQswkN                   Today’s trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/kGkg0mjTPe                     Add on trade/1 entry 3 exits

http://www.screencast.com/t/ut61mZJgZn                      Updated equity chart

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Today’s low needs to hold, so far so good

Monday, February 2nd, 2009

As of 8:40 am on Monday, February 2,  the S&P 500 cash market is pulling up off  its low of the day. As I write this, we are up +9 points off this low.

I stated on Thursday’s blog, we were going to go down for the next few days with a market turn expected on Friday or Monday. Well, it’s Monday and we are starting to turn now, but what happens now is not going to count because it’s how the day ends up. The market needs to stay above the lower purple line on the daily S&P chart posted below. Very important low. 

We are currently in a short term down trend and that trend will likely stay in place until the outside trend line gets broken to the upside. I have anticipated a short term market bounce, but that cannot and will not happen until and unless the technical picture supports that opinion. We shall see.

With today’s day trading, I was able to pick up my daily goal plus.  Here are the trades.  +4 ticks, -5 ticks, +2 ticks, +9 ticks, -4 ticks, +2 ticks, even , +4 ticks, +3 ticks.  The total of these trades comes to 3  and 3/4 points for the morning. I will show you the trades below.

I was not that happy with the  two losses that I had, not because they were losses, everyone has there share of those, but because they were not good trade setups. I waited on a few trades and let them go and that is ok, but those were good trade setups and I got a little impatient and took two less than desirable trades for me. Not to worry, I came right back and picked up some nice trades to recover. 

Today, I have at the bottom some of Friday’s early morning trades and today’s early morning trades. I did not take these trades, but it is nice to see where and what the trade setups look like. There is a nice market flow to the early morning action. One thing I noticed while looking at these two charts is that Friday’s open and Monday’s open look almost exactly the same. They both started off the same way and continued to trade in the same manner. Just an interesting observation here.

I will soon be trading this morning. I need to get my schedule lined up first. But as you can see, you can trade any time of the day. The middle of the day tends to be slow, between 9 a.m and 11 a.m. It usually picks up after that with the institutional traders in New York coming back from their late lunches. 

That’s it for today, I wish you all the best.

Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/NdN6sA3AXpP      Some of today’s live trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/EAE9lZXyrl             Daily S&P 500 update

http://www.screencast.com/t/x4GFgN6Z4B       Friday’s early morning potential trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/DFwszVb3rt         Today’s early morning potential trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/cayVwMI6b       Took few more trades 16 gain 3 loss 1 flat

http://www.screencast.com/t/Ruglbpu5           Chart of the day equity curve

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S&P 500 building base for move up next week

Friday, January 23rd, 2009

Well, its been a little while since my last post and I am glad to be back. The Holidays were a bit more time consuming this year than they normally are.

The market has been holding on to its retracement level in the S&P 500, just above 800.  Back in December, I said that 800 needed to hold to remain in the uptrend we have been trying to put in. So far so good.  The market moved up about 15% from that call and then back down.  It is now at the breaking point and needs to move up from this short term consolidation of the last week.  There is an outside trend line on the daily charts that needs to be broken to the upside for the uptrend to take hold.  This right now is acting as resistance, but once that gets broken to the upside, the path will be cleared for higher prices.  I will post a chart of what I mean, so take a look below and check it out. 

This week the bullish sentiment dropped and that is good for the bulls.  The more people that think the market is not going up the better chance it has to do just that.  Now the reading is 38% with a reading of 35 as very bullish. It had gotten up to 43% and just this week has backed off to 38.  The market could base for a few more days getting the bears to bite on the downside theory.  The new numbers come out on Tuesday of this coming week.  If those numbers fall to below 35%, we have a very good chance to rally 10 to 20 % for the overall market. 

Unfortunately, if this happens, I believe it will be short lived and will set itself up for another big drop, making fresh new lows.  Not a pretty picture, I know, and I don’t like to think that way, but the way I think is not going to change the market.  In past recessions, this would be the turning point to buy and the recovery will be first seen in the stock market, before anyone else realizes it.  The market always looks out 6 months to a year in the future and if it smells a recovering economy, it will rally in anticipation of the reality.  On the other hand, it will also know if it (the economy) is still on the ropes and going down for another beating, which is what I expect to happen after this rally.  The market will do what it has to do in order to draw in new money,  getting people to bite on a recovery scenario, only then to be gored by the bear trap.  So be careful out there and plan ahead. 

As far as daytrading is concerned, as I have said before, it does not matter what the market does, going up or down.  We position ourselves to take a few small pieces out of the market and hit our daily goal of at least 2 points + on the S&P 500 per day.  It may not sound like a lot, but it adds up nicely when you get it every day and gradually add to your position size.  Below are some of the trades I have recently taken to show what I mean as well as the long term S&P 500 daily chart that I mentioned earlier.  I may post again before Monday, have a great week end.

Vince

http://screencast.com/t/3bdutjDWE    some of today’s live trades

http://screencast.com/t/bcOk1lFX3     some of today’s trades with commentary

http://screencast.com/t/jJJ7nwxws     daily chart with notations

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Another good day

Thursday, September 4th, 2008

As I have come to expect, I had another good day in the market.  Not being cocky, but the hard work has been paying off, so to speak.  The best thing I can ask for is to look for set ups that happen over and over and over again.  Different market conditions are always present, but the method works.  Now, I need to stay focused and humble.  Steady as she goes.  I don’t need to conquer the world in a week, but a steady path is what I have come to expect. 

I want to take a moment to explain a few things on the trading vehicle that I am using.  I trade the S&P 500 E-Mini futures.  It’s called the “Emini” because it is a smaller version of the large contract.  I say contract because that is what I am trading.  “A Contract”, an agreement between another trader, fund manager, investment bank and so on.  They are wanting to set this agreement up to protect their investments from a market drop so they may be wanting to sell this agreement with someone who will contract with them, anyone, around the world or in the same city as they are.  Someone who will assume the risk they are seeking to alleviate.  You are not really investing in the companies of the S&P 500, but are piggy-backing on their daily movement.  As the real index moves up and down, the futures move very close to it.  Sometimes above it and sometimes below it, in anticipation of where people think the market will actually be in say 1, 5, 60 minutes or more from now. 

As I mentioned in an earlier post, this is a very large market with participants all over the globe controlling assets in the 100’s of billions of dollars all there for different reasons.  All I have to know is why I am there and continue to exploit my advantage.  I am taking a calculated risk and will be rewarded for my experience, patience, discipline and foresight.  When I am on track with the right mental preparedness, I am hitting in the 90% + winning percentage area.  My targets are usually small, but not always. It depends on market conditions, and my losses are very small when I get them.  Losses are a part of it, and I take my losses just like other speculators. But not as often as the winners come in. 

I will be posting a video of some of my trades and still shots as well.  In addition, I will be posting an equity curve of my daily profit after commissions so you can see how all my trades are coming in.  More to follow with a lot of education on what I am doing and how I do it for the select few that will learn my method. And that it is a “method” and not a “system.”  When someone learns the method they will be able to adjust for market conditions. Whereas a system will start to show multiple losses in not being able to adjust itself as I am able to.  The goal is to be profitable every day and get my paycheck sent out to me on every Friday for half of my profit. 

Why do I trade?  Quite simply, to make a living and have the free time to be where I want to be, doing what I want to do.  It is the best job in the world for those who can learn to master their emotions and stay the course they have set for themselves. 

More to come!

 Vince  -  vinnie@sniperdaytrading.com

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Opening post for “Snipertrading”

Monday, September 1st, 2008

“Sniper trading” is a place where I will be educating a select few in day trading the S&P 500 Emini Futures Market.  This is no easy task by industry standards, but that’s where my many years of experience will pay off for those who are on my team.  Most people in the industry will tell you that the people who attempt this will end up paying for the very select few who can actually do it, and I would agree to that statement as well.  This is not easy, but it is possible.  What I am talking about is making money from being a part of a liquidity pool of tens or even hundreds of thousands of people all over the world by writing contracts or agreements of purchases on the S&P 500 futures market.  You agree to sell or buy a group of stock (S&P 500 index) at a set price in that moment of time. 

There are millions of contracts traded in any single day, changing hands from one person or group at a time.  The reason for all of this is to create liquidity for those who want to purchase a kind of insurance policy.  You see, large pension funds, banks, mutual funds (which there are thousands of) have the responsibility of growing the money that people have entrusted to them.  It is their job to increase the assets they have through strategic investing.  The money they handle runs into the billions of dollars.  If a period in time comes (and it always does) when they feel vulnarable to a market drop, they will want to sell their investments to protect their profits, thus doing their job.  But, if they go into the open market and start selling, they will push the market down and others will begin to do the same and a very large sell off could turn into a panic, for no good reason. 

This sell off they are trying to protect themselves from was only a short term drop but now has turned into a crash bringing everyone else down with them because it is also their job to protect the assets of their clients and so on.  The way around this is to sell Futures contracts against the positions that they hold, a kind of insurance policy.  If they are right and the market does go down as they predicted, they can go into the futures market and sell contracts (leveraged agreements) against those positions and make a profit on the decline in value. They are taking a loss on the actual stock that they own, but they are making up for it with the profit in the drop of the futures contract.  They put up a small margin or deposit against the postion, say $3,000 dollars for every $60,000 worth of stock they own.  If the market drops 5% on them and their portfolio drops by that much as well, they made up for it with the profit from the increase in value of the futures contracts they sold. 

Who did they sell it to?  Well, to speculators like me and others.  They sold because they thought the market was going down but I believe it is going up. So, I basically sell the contract to them stating that if the market goes up (against the position they took) they will be losing money to the speculator.  This is the price they are willing to take in order to protect their position from a large drop in the market that they are not willing to accept.  But they may be willing to accept a 1% loss, thus the cost of the insurance.  They can cover their loss or get out at any time.  Their loss becomes the speculators gain. There needs to be someone willing to take the other side of the market at all times to create the liquidity that I was talking about earlier.   This does serve a vital purpose in our economy and it goes on in many other commodities. 

Example:  If a corn farmer has a crop coming to market in 2 months and he needs to get $5.00 per bushel to break even, anything over that will be his profit.  If now at this time he can get $6.00 per bushel, he can make a contract on the futures market for that $6.00 and be assured he will get that price when his corn is ready for the market place, and be assured of a profitable crop return. If, at the time of harvest, his corn is currently selling for $7.00 per bushel he does not get the $7.00 but only the $6.00 he has contracted for. The speculators will make the difference because they assumed the risk.  By the same token, if the corn is only at $4.50 per bushel, the farmer will get the $6 dollars price everyone agreed on when the contract was set.  Now the speculators will be losing to pay the farmer his higher $6 dollar price.  These contracts are done by matching up those who want to buy with those who want to sell. 

Millions of contracts are traded each day on the S&P 500 by those who think they know where the market is going in the next week, day, hour, minute and sub-minute.  I am part of the pool of people who is willing to contract with others all over the world taking the opposite of their positions.  Only one of us is going to be right at that given moment in time.  It is my job to be right more often than not. 

As of late, I have been right about 80-90% of the time.  My position targets for the most part are very small, but highly accurate.  My loss is about equal to my gains but not in all situations.  People will say that you need a 2 or 3-to-1 gain-to-loss ratio to be successful.  That may to true for the style they are trading but not in all cases. 

I have three programs to instantly go to based on market conditions.  Most of the trades are done with the smallest of movements and will take usually less than a minute to complete.  Sounds fast, and it is, but once you see what your part is, you will breathe a little easier. 

Well that is all for now, I need to take a break.  I will continue this topic in future postings.  I will also be posting live charts of these trades so all will know what’s going on.

God Bless you all, until we meet again.

Vince

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