Posts Tagged ‘reversal’

Recap of Recent Calls Made in Emini S&P

Thursday, May 5th, 2011

Today’s market was a fast mover, with 2.5 + million S&P emini contracts traded. I would like to see the volume and movement continue, but its not up to me.

Last Friday’s posting, I mentioned for the start of the week we were likely to now come under selling pressure over the next few session and we sure have, right on cue. A week before that, also on Friday, for Monday’s market we were like to see market strength that would take us to new highs, exactly as I wrote about over the coming days. So I called the move up to the day spotted the top and we have had four down days in a row.

It is now looking like we may see an intra day new low tomorrow from today’s low and then a reversal up closing at least in the middle or upper half of tomorrows range. Basically, weakness and then a bounce up off the new short term lows to close up better than 50% of the days range. I will try and stay open minded myself and let the price tell me what it wants to do, which is always a good idea.

Yesterday, I posted a tweet on Twitter which I don’t usually do, as I just have it linked to my blog posting as a tweet, but called for the market to sell off 10-11 points into the first 90 minutes of today’s trading session to around 1334. It did just that but went a couple points more to around 1332.  I did try and call a pretend trade with a small 5 tick stop, but the night trading did pop up a little to take that out. We then proceeded down to the area I just mentioned, still not bad at all.

For tomorrow, let just hope we have the volume and movement so we can trade with a little purpose. We shall see. I did not trade yesterday, so I was looking to trade longer or for more of what the market had. I might mention, I did get a little flustered when I did not get on a big move I was looking for. Instead it went the other way and it is totally my fault. I did not look both ways. I had a one track mind and blinded myself of the reality of the trade. I do remember doing that before, but it has been a while. I used to do it more often a few years back and was a big problem. It has a lot to do with so many things, to many to list here now, but maybe over the weekend if I remember, I will write about it.The point, its OK to have market opinions, but don’t be married to it. As it turned out, I was right, but not before it took me out and reversed right to where I was looking for. I usually get those right, but not today. Anyway, I took like 8 trades, 7 were for gains. A few were counter trend in my T-1 screen, so it might look off as far as the indicators as concerned, but it looked right to me in my other screen. I let plenty of trades go by and some for huge moves, but I did pick up double my daily goal so how can I complain.    My trades below.

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Market Reversal – Just as called in Yesterdays Posting

Monday, June 21st, 2010

Hello, this is Vince and today is June 21st, moving right into summer, very welcomed on my side.

With summer, is a time of change, transition and new ventures. I know that in the Marble Mountain Wilderness of where I live in Northern California, it is a time of exploring new trails, unseen alpine lakes and new adventures of which I live every year. I never tire of this outdoor life, as I can always balance it, with city interaction of which I often do.

Transition and change is apart of life. New growth and plant life constantly springs up before my eyes. This is the same growth that I see in some of my students. It is a pure joy to know that there are real people on the other end of my trading method whose lives are being changed for the better. This is my dream and I am living it. To give back to others and allow them to live there trading dream is what does it for me. I don’t look to and on myself here, because I have all I need.

In today’s trading, we did see the target area hit that I talked about over a week ago and updated in yesterday afternoons blog post. The minimum target was 1122 and the average target area was 1132. Today we hit just under 1130 in the S&P emini futures and satisfied that target area goal.

The second part of that was the underlined portioned of yesterdays update, calling for a reversal of the upmove under way in the premarket. I did give myself a small out, by allowing for the completion of this reversal to come in on Tuesday, but the emphasis was on Mondays gap move higher. We were up over 150 points on the Dow and equivalent amounts on the S&P and NASDAQ,  only to pull back to end the day down across the board.

That is what you would call a reversal day. Move out substantially higher and end the day down. That does not happen that often and for me to call that one again, there has to more to the markets than just “random theory” as many try and identify the markets as.

This is part of the language that I have often mentioned, when reading the markets. Either you know it or you don’t. If you don’t and want to learn, you will have to take a concrete action to change that which you do not know. It will not come to you in a dream or by accident. It will come with purpose and clarity. “If you call it, it will come”.  I borrow that line, but changed it a bit to make a point.

If you call Sniper Day Trading, you will see it now and be able to apply it to current price action that takes place each day. If you are not interested in being profitable on almost every trading session, that is OK, that is your choice. If, on the other hand it is something that you dream of, then take a step in the right direction to make it a reality.

I don’t need to or have too try and convince those who want to see change to do so. Either you want results and a solid foundation to build upon or “you can try and figure it out on your own”.

That is what I did and it took umpteen years ( a long time).  I made up a new word, I think. O’ well. I have something to offer, for those who are searching. If you think you have what it takes to make it, God Bless you and I wish you all well, really. If you have questions and want to bounce a few idea’s off of me, I am game. (email me) I do want to help. My answers will be somewhat limited, but surprise me and who knows what I may tell.

But for those who want to know the “whole story”, don’t ride the fence to long. I don’t charge to much when compared to others, but think that I am affordable enough for most traders to build there foundation upon.

I truly believe you will not be sorry. I have the time right now. I am coming off of some training that I have recently done and do have time to pour into a few more students who are interested in becoming profitable on a regular basis.

Its not all about the money, but I do expect to be paid for my knowledge and expertise in this area.

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I posted a chart of today’s trades above and had a pretty good day. With the Nasdaq trades I took, it was around 1K.   I would consider that a good day. I only had a 2 tick loss on one trade today in the S&P as shown above. The trade indicators are working as they always do, because the market always trades in the same fashion one way or another, choppy or trending. I have tools and screens for both, but my T-2 screen will do the job for both if you want to camp on this one trade screen setup. We do have and use higher time frames that are synergistic in nature,  to give us clarity in direction, all apart of the trading method.

Good Trading to everyone who follows me and my blog. If you need help, whether it is a question or you want to ask for my free branded book on, “The Power Of Concentration”, just ask, its free and I won’t be hounding you to sign up for this or that. This e-book can really help those who apply it wisdom to there trading, to better focus on there objectives, profitability, (a key for most).

Until next time, Vince over and out.

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Market Update and Recap of Next Market Move

Sunday, June 20th, 2010

Vince here from Sniper Day Trading, showing an extra week end post for Friday’s session on the S&P emini’s.

I have a recap of Fridays session on the S&P’s narrow range (only 8 points) and comments on the pre-market move of the S&P futures. There seems to be a very good move under way which should carry forward into Mondays session and push the market index’s up after the open.

Just one note on the price range we are currently hitting. This is now at a very minimum, satisfied the price objective that I called for on June 9ths blog post. Over a week ago while the market had closed the session at 1051.25 I said that we were at a breaking point and was leaning for a move to the upside but was cautious of a break to new lows. With a break of the days highs at 1073 (new contract price) we will quickly be on our way to a minimum of 1122 to 1142 with taking 1132 as the middle average. Currently we are at 1126.75 in the pre-market move Sunday afternoon.

From the days close 6 trading sessions ago at 1051 to today’s price of 1126 that is a 75 S&P point move. When you take it from the break out which really confirmed the move 5 trading days ago, that is still a 54 point trading move. That move was the easy and obvious to me and is what I would be looking at if trading a small tick chart just the same. When you know how to trade small time frames, you can trade any time frame and any trading instrument. In monitoring my own calls for large moves like this, I have done amazing well. I don’t remember one big turning point that was a clear miss on these daily time frames.

I did get a little confused with the move after this one, which I did mention last week, but that did not change the direction or call of this current move. The sentiment numbers are very close to a large buy signal. The market can pull back into the S&P 1080 area and should hold somewhere in there, but if it breaks 1040 that is going to produce selling of great proportion. So, may be I should not project that far out and just focus now on the next move, which would be a move back down to the area mentioned 1080.

I would not be surprised to see a big reversal of this move up here on Mondays session. I have checked the individual Dow charts and it does look like there is resistance overhead at least for the short run. It could run up to the higher end of the range 1142 but we will just have to wait and see.  My only point right now is be on the look out for a reversal today or tomorrow back down. We should get one producing a large retracement back. I will keep you undated on what I think going forward.

Video of the small trading range on Friday’s S&P futures

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The Trading Range is Set, Hold On

Wednesday, June 9th, 2010

Today is Wednesday, June 9th and the market is hoovering in a neutral stand, waiting upon its next move.

The general stock market moved higher only to be met with “Price Rejection”. That would be its inability to overcome overhead supply. It did make a run at it, of which I saw it coming. I also saw the the exact resistance area and started to lighten up as I came closer to my overall target area in today’s trading. I was looking at S&P 1075 as a destination point for the last rally. Once hit, the high was reached for the day and down she went for a -20 S&P point reversal,  closing -6 points on the S&P and -40 points on the Dow.

Well, the market held up over the last few days and that is a good thing. I don’t have a lot to say today, only that we will need to stay above the previous lows recently set to keep this rally alive. That low was established during yesterdays intra day bottom.

The market will turn very negative and continue its bearish move to much lower levels if yesterdays low gets taken out.  The downside line in the sand has been drawn. On the reverse side of that, given the fact that the market was able to rally off that very key support area, is saying there is a real good chance we could make it out of this, at least short term.

The sentiment numbers came out today, but I won’t know what they are until Thursday evening. I will update at that time.

To recap, I see big movement on the break of today’s high of 1077.25 and yesterdays low 1041. That gives us 36 S&P points to play with or 360 Dow points. I will be watching both of those numbers for an increase in trade volume and trade velocity.

Yesterday I posted a live video on U-Tube of the days action and is in the video gallery on my website. I will post a snap shot of the days results as well as today’s results below. Two real good days.

My first two trades today were for small losses on small size, then hit a nice small trade short and reversed my position at my original sell stop point, something I don’t usually do, and the market kept going where I added on for larger size, once the trade showed its real intentions.

The two charts are in my middle time frame and are exactly reflect the price action in relation to my smaller tick chart size. It is easier to post more bars and show more of the day this way.

Yesterdays trades, I  just started to take the small trades were I could. I think I took 3 or 4 one point trades until I saw a big move coming and got a little anxious and jumped the gun. You can clearly see based on the my custom trade indicators that I went in way early and was only asking for trouble. I did switch to my T-1 short term model for a tighter entry, but it did not help as the market was just not ready. I wanted to pull the cake out of the oven before it was cooked, not a good idea. As I state in my notes on the screen, I had the right idea but was early and a bit anxious. I hug in there and was not afraid to load up on what I originally saw and milked the trade for  about a 10 point S&P move. I followed it up for another little topper after that, a great day.

I have the trades marked up on both screens as to where the key turning points are and it is just awesome, as the turning points were crystal clear. You just need the courage to trade them and you will and would have been sitting pretty. I would bet in yesterdays market if I tried to trade the whole day, I could have gotten at least half of the 75-80 points the day showed in available points. That would be 35-40 points of profit in one days session.

It would take a lot out of me to keep up the concentration one would need to do that, but I can see it is possible. For every point in the S&P emini futures it represents $50 dollars. If you trade 3 contracts that is $150 dollars per point x that by 35-40 points and that is a little less than $ 6k in a single day only trading small size. I totally believe in a session like yesterday, that it could have done that. I just don’t want to work that hard, as it is possible I could loose concentration and make mistakes. It is safer to trade for a modest sum and move on.

Usually, I only trade for 2-4 points with an occasional windfall day, like yesterday. Today was somewhere in between, but would call it above average for sure. As I mentioned earlier, we can always make mistakes, not trade our plan and or method and let emotion take over. You can not expect to do your best if you get anxious. I have a tendency to come in a little early at times and those are the trades that I get stopped out. I and or we, need to remember to let the trade come to us. If you look at yesterdays trade chart below, you will see I totally jumped the gun. The trade indicators are there to help you not get out in front of yourself, to hold you back until you have the momentum on your side.

Entering to early most of the time is an emotional response of “fear of lost opportunity”. I have blogged about that before, but you can see a clear example of it in the chart. I can try and justify it any way I want, I blew it. I am not perfect and know that I can always do better.

Being a good trader is not about being perfect, that will never happen, but if you can keep your mistakes to a minimum and take advantage of the gift trades the market occasionally gives you, you can do well. Consider this motto on occasion as well.

Get in – Get out and – Be done.

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Market Drops Off as Sentiment goes with it

Thursday, May 13th, 2010

Today is Thursday, May13th and the market started to pull back after hitting overhead resistance.

Well, the market hit the overhead resistance I had talked about in the night trading. It came within a couple of points at 1175 before the sellers took advantage of the offering. I would bet you will have some holding on for big potential returns. If it does not happen, they may get stopped out for a 2-3 point loss, but if it does go down like I mentioned in yesterdays blog, it could be a big runner, potentially to 1120 area.

I saw overhead resistance at the previous break, it is not rocket science, but a pull back from that point would be a market play and I am sure there were many looking to get short after the open as well. There were a few good opportunities to do so, with one run producing a trade-able 13 S&P points.

I came into today late, at the last hour and missed all the fun. The market was in that big sell off when I started watching it. I did have a very nice trade just at the close of session for about 4.50 points.  It was that big counter trend move back up. Before that I had a couple of trades I would call bad trades. All losses are not bad trades, they are just losses and that is trading, but if I go against my rules and enter at a point that is not consistent with my method, I call that a bad trade. Even if a trade turned into a gain and I did enter properly, I would still call that a bad trade.

I was able to come back and then some, still hitting my daily goal, but I don’t like it coming so late in the day. You may not have enough time to recover if you are down. Well, that again is my fault for starting so late.

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Just a short word on the market sentiment numbers released on Wednesday morning. This is the investment newsletter writers weekly survey of bullish or bearish opinion. After hitting the tipping point on Wednesday morning the market watchers may have used that to sell it off. All the major Indexes were in the right position to sell off. They were on the right side of the chart as a top had been established with definable short entry points. The break that started on last Wednesday is exactly what we hit in the night trading from today’s session. It basically came all the way back up as if nothing had happened. The sentiment numbers being so bullish at 56% had something to do with it. At 55% and above, is typically the time when you will see a reversal.  With so many people thinking one way, that is a sign that it is about to go in the opposite direction. It lost no time as the decline really started on Wednesday and you now know the rest of the story.

Currently the numbers have dropped off to 47% and that is a good start. At 45%, that is considered neutral and 35% will usually trigger a bullish rally. If we see a pull back as mentioned, the numbers should come off again by next week. The newsletter writing community are usually trend followers and as the move becomes obvious to the majority, it then is time for a change in direction. We are not there yet and are still working off this overly bullish stance.

We will need more time for anything new to develop. You will usually see 3 to 5 good turning point signals from this tool per year. I will keep you posted and interpret as things progress.

That’s it for now, hope to see back again, for another session tomorrow.

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Big Stock Market Move Coming !

Sunday, February 28th, 2010

Today is Sunday, February 28th and this post is for Fridays market.

The market on Friday, I believe is marking a little time. There is a good chance that we will see the rally that I had talked about last week. We saw an inside day, from Wednesdays market, followed by the sell off I was looking for, but came up about 6 points short of reaching the target. The next part of that was the reversal I called for, and it did come, closing at the highs of the day, I am sure a complete surprise for many. That happened on Thursday and Friday we just saw some base building and ended the session up slightly near the highs of the day. Monday will have to be the day to rally if in fact it does. To me that is the on time day.

The market sentiment numbers came this week with some changes. On Tuesday, the new numbers came out after a large market drop and thought it might have an influence. It didn’t, in-fact, it went the other way with bullishness increasing by over 6 to around 42% and change.

I believe there is still room for a rally here, but it will probably be contained. The market is in a key spot right here. The volume and volatility is going to pick up for sure. I can see it in the daily charts. Be on the look out, I think we will see a trending day up, but anything can happen. The market is in tipping point position, a move big one way or another, which ever way it breaks, you will see high volume and a little conviction behind it. Well, that is what I see. Always keep an open mind and don’t hold onto any market direction opinion so strongly that it blinds your decision making ability to read the price action. I mention it, because it happens all the time to traders.

Trade what you see, not what you think. That will keep you out of trouble to some extent. One more thing, if we get a trending day, try and trade in the direction of the trend as best you can. Trying to go against a strong trending day, can wreck havoc with your account equity.

Find what you feel are safe entry area’s and enter as the trend continues. Playing a choppy market or trending market is different and you need to ready for both.

Fridays trades below, daily goal met. It is not perfect, but trading is not about being perfect, but doing enough right things to get your points for the day.

Good Trading to all.

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Big Day on Wall Street & Day 6 training

Wednesday, February 18th, 2009

Today is Tuesday February 17th, and we had a big day on wall street.

I don’t think the investment community likes the bail out plan because it more closely resembles a big government spending binge.  The way I understand it, there is going to have to be more and more of this spending in future years, to the tune of 2.5 Trillion or more dollars, wow, that is a lot of money. Look for inflation to be a big problem later in the year. They won’t be able to raise that much money without raising taxes and or printing it (money).  It is going to pull a lot of available cash away from the private sector, meaning people with businesses are going to have to pay more to capture some of the financing that they need.  Interest rates will go up for sure and so will inflation. Right now we are in a deflationary environment, but that is going to change later this year, you wait and see. I don’t think this is good for the economy and the market with wall street agreeing. The S&P sold off about 4 & 1/2 percent and today broke that all important support that I have talked about. Not a good development for long term money. The market is always going to foretell what is happening in the economy 6-9 months in the future. So lets still hope we get a reversal.

As far as indicators go, the daily did turn negative today. I don’t rely on indicators, but it is a little helpful at times for the person who is still learning how to read price action. The only glimmer of hope that I see, is a possible fake out. Many times the previous low (pivot) gets taken out by only a slight margin and that is enough to get shorts and people who have been hanging in there to throw in the towel. When that happens a fast reversal can happen. Right now, there is no way of know what the next move is, but by reading  current price action will we know if it is going to continue to break down. I would say be alert tomorrow and look for a possible reversal, but don’t have too strong a bias, just be aware that a reversal can happen, and  ”READ PRICE ACTION”. That is the only way you will know what’s going on.

As traders, that is easy to figure out. Don’t anticipate much, just read. I can not state that strong enough. The times that you have too strong an opinion about market direction, to the point that you become blinded from what is actually happening, is the times that you will not do so well. You can not force you will on the market, it does not care what you think. Its job is to take you “OUT”. So, take it easy and wait for high probability set ups.

Today’s day trading went well. I picked up my daily goal in about 20 minutes or so in the morning. I started out with +1 point but only got filled on 1 contract, not 5. Then had -1 point , +1 point, +1/2 point, +3 ticks, and then +1 point. I have the trades posted below. I did come back for another round a little later after taking a break. The equity graph shows all the trades net profit. I had 14 trades, with 12 gains and 2 losses. The market was really flowing nicely. I will show tomorrow some more trades in the 233 tick. If anyone is trying to trade and follow on there own, I would recommend that you do it in the 233 tick right now. Unless you know how to weed through the possible false signals in the 100 tick, you should be following the 233 tick for now. I will explain more in tomorrow post.

Lastly, when watching the training, you may want to scroll down to the bottom and go to the right side, there you will see a button that looks like a screen.  If you click on that, you will make the screen full size, it may be easier to view. I wish everyone who is follow me a great evening.

Vince

 

http://www.screencast.com/t/NgwtnTFbUO       Day #6 Training

http://www.screencast.com/t/BK9pKrXAos      Today’s equity graph

 http://www.screencast.com/t/oSpzKsaqESr         Some of today’s trades

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Day 5 Training video / Market Averages holding on

Friday, February 13th, 2009

It is Friday February 13th, and day five of my small video training series.

Hope everyone is enjoying the sample training series. I have gotten positive feedback so far, so I know it has been a help for some. Please feel free to comment.

The market is holding on by the skin of its teeth, hugging the bottom support line we have talked about for so long. Yesterday’s reversal was good, but there wasn’t any follow through in today’s trading. It is still technically positive in the daily chart, but we will need some follow through here pretty soon.

I did check the sentiment numbers and they went negative by an additional 3%, which is good for the bull argument. A reading at 35% or below is considered a bullish signal and we were at 35 and went down to 32. This figure is a weekly poll taken to identify the number of professional stock market newsletter writers who are either bullish or bearish ( up or down). They give their opinions each week and it is tracked and recorded. Other groups take that information and post their results, having somewhat turned it into a market timing tool.

The funny thing about it is that they don’t take the advice, they trade in the opposite direction of the writers  and profit from the standard herd mentality that exists on the street. I have been following these numbers since the early 80’s and found them to be very accurate. It is not fool proof, nothing is, these guys could get it right one of these days, so be careful. I still think there is a bounce in the cards coming but we shall see. I will post a chart of the S&P cash to show you where we are over the weekend.

My day trading went well today, posting 3 gains in the early morning, picking up my daily goal in about 20 minutes. I remember them as +1 point, +1 point, and +1/2 point.  I was only trading for 1/2 point on the last trade because I just wanted to cover commission cost. I was just fine with doing that, even if I could have gotten more, which I could have as I remember. I want to try and stay in control, knowing that I only needed a little more to get my goal. If I had taken a stop on the trade, I would have had to stay trading and that means more exposure to the market.

This is a very conservative approach. I am trying to exercise mental discipline in my trading to show that I can get what I want out of the trading day. I believe that if I want to take 6 or even 10 points out of the market each day, that I could do that as well, but I would have to work at it a bit harder and stay a while longer. I have definitely done that before and it’s ok, but I need to be prepared for it and plan it. Today, I did come back and picked up another daily goal in the afternoon. That was the plan. I treated it just like a new day and did what I always do, pick off a few trades to add to this mornings gains. A nice way to go into the weekend.

Below, I have the training video as well as the screen shots of today’s trades. I will post more on the current events on Wall Street this weekend, so check back . I wish all the readers of my blog a most excellent weekend.

Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/CUArEYcq              Day #5 sample training video

http://www.screencast.com/t/1vYMwyRObtE     This moring’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/Bdtv2315l               This mornings trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/bftPp4q5M             This afternoons add on equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/ODI2×97z               This afternnons trades

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Day four of sample training & What a reversal today!

Friday, February 13th, 2009

Today is Thursday, February 12 and it is day four of my sample training series.

I hope everyone is enjoying it. This series is the trading activity of just one day which you can see presents many trading opportunities to capture your daily goal.  If any one has questions, please feel free to email me.

Today’s market looks like a giant “W” formation. That is how it started off, straight down, then back up a little over half way, and then straight down again, only to shoot straight up in the last 50 minutes of trading to close at the high for the day.

As I said many times before, today’s market needed to stay above the support it was resting on and when it was broken early in the morning by over 200 Dow points, it was not looking good. Although, as I watched the market action this morning, I was somewhat anticipating a reversal before the end of the day was over. I did not have a chance to see the final push back up, but it was impressive.

If a person wanted to trade what I call “Pyramiding”, you could have added 12 orders, each with its own new buy point and stop. You just keep moving up your old stop to match the new stop from the new orders. In a strong directional move like the last hour of today, you could have cleaned up. Keep in mind, you would have to have this strategy planned out well ahead of time, so you are ready with your plan of action.

I have done this in the past, but I don’t do it that often. My current strategy is to make money a little slower and build my contract base up over time. This is a more conservative approach, but I am not totally against putting a trade on like this occasionally. If an opportunity comes up in the future, I will take it and explain in more detail the order process. When the move is finished you may have added to your position 10 times.

As an example, if you were only trading one contract you may finish the move an hour later selling 10 contracts. Each add on order is treated as a separate order and should stand on its own merit, meeting your standard buying conditions with your normal stop parameters. You do not take on any additional risk as long as the move is in the right direction and you keep moving all of your stops up.  This is called scalling in.

What I do many times is what is called scalling out.  But this is a totally different strategy for different market conditions and should be a part of your overall plan of action. Currently it is not part of mine, but it may appeal to others who like this type of trading. Not every pyramiding endeavor is going to be met with 10 add on’s but maybe 3 or 4 would be a little more normal in the context of a large run of say 8 to 10 S&P points. Today’s last hour run was good for about 28 points, that is a lot, let me tell you. 

Today’s trading went well, as I was able to catch my daily goal plus in about 45 minutes. It took a little longer than most days, but that is fine. The more time you actually spend in the market brings additional risk. If I were to count the actual time I spend in the market, it is going to be very low – the total time in the trade, not the time in between trades.

Tomorrow, I will check it and post what it is. Again, this is one more thing I need to keep in mind. For me, I know anything can happen, especially these days so we need to stay on our toes. More tomorrow, have a great evening!

Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/O4ua9O8kP          Day 4 of sample training series

http://www.screencast.com/t/GiTPwKjiDL          Today’s trades taken

http://www.screencast.com/t/FOIYZ2SUV         Today’s equity chart

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Another good day trading

Wednesday, February 4th, 2009

I had another good day trading, which I will go over below, but first let me give you an update of what happened in the daily. 

The S&P moved right up to the outside trend line that I have been talking about the last couple of weeks. It has proved to be two things for different people. First it has proven to be like a magnet, drawing prices up into itself. Second, it has proved to be an execellent area for selling short. There will be a point soon that it will be neither of those again for the same people.  It is about to become a point for short sellers to become buyers or it will be a windfall for those shorting in that area.

I can honestly say, I do not know and don’t think anyone else does either. We can only deal in probabilities here. On the weekly chart, which I have not shown, the market looks like it wants to turn up. But it has not. And the daily is on the verge of turning up and it has not done so either. A move over that outside line will give us some additional time to recover, yet as I have said, I think longer term, it is a bear trap.

The S&P did move 35 points off the reversal point that I said was probably going to take place on Friday or Monday. Well, it happened like I said, but on Monday. It reversed off of the lows and closed higher, catching a lot of people in a short term bear trap. The next day was higher, yesterday and today we drew up to that resistance point and dropped straight down, showing solid price rejection. See the chart below, “Daily S&P” . 

The negative sentiment makes me lean to the upside. We may need to have a news event, a catalysis, to drive prices higher. Watch the news for this in the next day or two. Something like passing the stimulous package or some other short term good news item. Again, we shall see.

My day trading efforts posted solid results again today. I started out with a 1 point loss, but came right back with a few positive trades putting me at my minimum daily goal in about 10 minutes. I kept trading expecting small rallies up to the resistance area I was talking about above. We had just that, but I remember having a few losses in a row, three to be exact. My timing was not too bad – a little late, a little early – but I got right back on the horse and road the market up to 5 & 1/2 times plus my daily goal. I definitely traded more today than I usually do, but I do that occasionally. I have a few charts of some of the live trades below, showing some early morning action.

One thing I did today was splitting up half my order 1 tick early, giving me the option to split my order for a higher target. I took only a few of these, picking up more than my one point default. After that, the market ran up from the early morning and started to flounder. No direction, low volume, and a bit choppy. I adjusted myself to take some smaller targets, making sure I got filled. On my equity curve chart, I traded only half the number of trades that it said I did, because the trades were split in half. The commission is the same, so it does not matter that way, but it shows two trades as being only one because of the two exits.  Any way, it was smooth sailing from there.

I will be having a training session on Saturday morning at 8 a.m. West Coast time this week. If anyone is interested let me know by emailing me at vinnie@sniperdaytrading.com. If you have not done so, download SKYPE from my website and that will give you the ability to ask questions about my method if you want to. You will need a headset or microphone to talk. I will send you an email invitation that will patch you into my trading screen. Just follow the instructions and it will lead you right to me in a minute or so. I will call you on SKYPE Saturday morning for those interested, so let me know. It will last for about 1 and 1/2 hours till 9:30. 

Best Regards,

Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/anUWp8jsGWG        Some live trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/DFlsOapukf                Some live trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/pAnC3Fhuv6X          Daily Equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/EoAWEEQk                   ”Daily S& P”

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