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Market call still on course

Monday, October 24th, 2011

Today is Monday October 24th, 2011 and today, I will post Fridays trades and today’s trades below to start, with a few comments about the current rally.

First this is today’s trades below, with just under an hour of trading start to finish. The early morning hour had some good moves to it on the upside, as I came in as things were slowing down a bit. I tried to take what I could from the market and it worked out with 4 out of 5 positive trades for a pretty easy daily goal today.

On the one loss, I came in early and did not want to give the market more room and got stopped out -5 ticks.  I did re-enter at one tick better, for some gains, but was really just waiting for the long move which I saw was the bigger point trade. That proved to be right and so the days gains were in and time to go.

Friday, I had another daily trading goal met as well, but my first trades were off for no good reason other than it was just me who was off. I did come back with a few nice trades short but took me a little better than 2 hours. Unfortunately, I started late and was stuck with slow market action for a while and worked with what I had. Again, it turned out OK as shown in the screen shot below. If you click on the charts twice it will blow up for a full size view.

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The market has continued to bring shock and amazement to Wall Street with continued gains into much higher levels. I had been calling for this rally to continue and it sure has all the way from the bottom.

Everyone was calling for a crash weeks ago, but I was not. I did say that we would be looking at these higher prices just before the bottom and just after the bottom of S&P 1075. Currently we are at low 1250’s and hit a first of two strong resistance area’s I recently called. Today’s move satisfies the first one and we will have to see if the upper one keeps going but it is there.  There is resistance, but the market is swallowing it up to only push higher. The next stiff resistance area the market may be drawing itself up to is the mid to upper S&P 1270’s and as high as 1280 itself. That is extreme but it can’t be overlooked. Under normal circumstances, a pull back from the current levels would normal and natural, so be aware of that. The price action will have to dictate from here.

The market and world is somewhat on the edge and it is not generally a happy time, but all we can do is take it one day at a time. Long term, all the refinancing in Europe and elsewhere is only prolonging the day of reckoning. I am a long term bear, but just not yet.

In 2012, I would expect highly volatile  market conditions as things churn. More to come on that in the months ahead.

That’s it for now, sometime this week, I will continue where I left off in discussing market psychology and the day trader, until then good trading to all.

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Two market scenario’s, which will prevail ?

Saturday, August 21st, 2010

Today is Saturday August 21st and the markets had an interesting week keeping the selling contained.

The markets were rising early on in the week, only to give it back plus a little more. As the week moved on, the selling was contained. I am pretty sure that we are going to hold up in this area. There are a few cross currents taking place, but I think this is what is needed to purge the excess out of the market before any future advance can take place.

Looking back I was a little off in initial support of the market, which it did come in as expected, but it did not hold. The lower area of support held more or less, off by a couple of points (S&P futures 1065), as other factors take hold of this market in its support for a possible sustained rally.

The market sentiment changed for the better in defense of the bulls, in that the sentiment turned a bit more negative, which in turn is positive. We never did get the big rally, but only a smaller reaction rally coming off the lows of the much larger sell-off from months past. The market needs time to fill in the gaps and that is what it was doing. I would add, if the market really wanted to go down, it sure is in a perfect place right here to “crack”, but somehow, I don’t think that is going to happen, again, just my opinion, which could be wrong.

I see the current position in the market as finding support in this area. We may hoover for a couple of days, as again the new sentiment numbers will be voted on after Tuesdays closing market. This is useful for a couple of reasons. Last week the market sentiment turned down from 41.7 to around 37%.  That was significant because the signal changed as the market had advanced sizable on the day of the poll.  So we saw a 4% shift negatively as the market advanced. The selling that took place Thursday and Friday should add to the negative sentiment if the market can hold in this area come Monday and Tuesday. Either way, there is a lot of negative sentiment floating around which usually can only be erased by a market advance.

The market needed to work off the excess and time needed to pass to better allow the market to be and get in a position so that it could move out. Either way, the energy is being built up so that it can be expelled in one direction or another. As day-traders, we don’t really care which way it goes, only that it goes and it will.

So my best guess is that we consolidate in the general area for a couple of days, further building up this market pressure for a surprise market advance later in the coming week. This time, the market should have some staying power and the shorts will really be covering themselves in full force. I do realize that something could make this change of which I have no control, not that I had or have control anyway, but this is just the big picture and how I could see things shaping up. Late July and early August the market wanted to advance, but a continued move from that point would have been to obvious, so a little head fake was in order. In addition, this move back is very normal and consistent with general market movements before a rally, again I say if it comes.

I want to through this in, just to balance out my opinion on the coming move. When I look at the daily charts, I see the other side of the equation as well and I need to look at it no matter how or what I think will happen with the next move. In fact before I continue with my reasoning, this is exactly what needs to take place for any smaller market move when deciding to go long or short. You size up your analysis based on your trading method and which ever direction has more evidence for that directional move, you need to consider a trade in that prevailing direction. Looking at the other side of the equation though is just as important. I know when I get one-sided in my opinion I can get tripped up as any trader can.

With that said, the market is also in a perfect place to continue its sell-off,  if in-fact it wants to.  I will put up a daily chart of what I am talking about so you can see all of what I am saying. Where the S&P 500 currently stands, their exists a free flowing path to the downside area, around the bottom red line as drawn would be normal and natural for it to occur. That would be looking at both sides of the market and a wise thing to do. This is where market sentiment can give you a clue as to the next major market move and where I am taking one of my clues from. I have been following this “Investment Advisory Market Sentiment” figures for a long, long time and have seen it come through time and time again.

If the market can hold up Monday and Tuesday, the outlook for the market advance becomes stronger. Again, be sure to take a look at the daily chart below. You can also see market resistance coming in at around 1110 or so, the top red line. Currently the daily and hourly momentum is down and the path of least resistance is down, but lets see if we HOLD this Monday and Tuesday to give my scenario a chance for life. 

I did no trading this week as I took some time off to spend with family. I have a couple of shots below of my area, where I got out to enjoy some of God’s creation. My kids came to visit and it was great to see them. My son John, 28 who is an electrical engineer in Portland Oregon and my daughter Angie, 24,   (entrepreneur) visiting from the San Francisco Bay Area.

We hiked on the Pacific Crest Trail which is a trail that links from Mexico to Canada and passes right through where I live.  I have a shot of a nearby waterfall and swimming hole a couple of miles from my home, very cool, take a peek if you care to.                                 Thanks for stopping by and Good Trading to all,  Vince.

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The Trading Range is Set, Hold On

Wednesday, June 9th, 2010

Today is Wednesday, June 9th and the market is hoovering in a neutral stand, waiting upon its next move.

The general stock market moved higher only to be met with “Price Rejection”. That would be its inability to overcome overhead supply. It did make a run at it, of which I saw it coming. I also saw the the exact resistance area and started to lighten up as I came closer to my overall target area in today’s trading. I was looking at S&P 1075 as a destination point for the last rally. Once hit, the high was reached for the day and down she went for a -20 S&P point reversal,  closing -6 points on the S&P and -40 points on the Dow.

Well, the market held up over the last few days and that is a good thing. I don’t have a lot to say today, only that we will need to stay above the previous lows recently set to keep this rally alive. That low was established during yesterdays intra day bottom.

The market will turn very negative and continue its bearish move to much lower levels if yesterdays low gets taken out.  The downside line in the sand has been drawn. On the reverse side of that, given the fact that the market was able to rally off that very key support area, is saying there is a real good chance we could make it out of this, at least short term.

The sentiment numbers came out today, but I won’t know what they are until Thursday evening. I will update at that time.

To recap, I see big movement on the break of today’s high of 1077.25 and yesterdays low 1041. That gives us 36 S&P points to play with or 360 Dow points. I will be watching both of those numbers for an increase in trade volume and trade velocity.

Yesterday I posted a live video on U-Tube of the days action and is in the video gallery on my website. I will post a snap shot of the days results as well as today’s results below. Two real good days.

My first two trades today were for small losses on small size, then hit a nice small trade short and reversed my position at my original sell stop point, something I don’t usually do, and the market kept going where I added on for larger size, once the trade showed its real intentions.

The two charts are in my middle time frame and are exactly reflect the price action in relation to my smaller tick chart size. It is easier to post more bars and show more of the day this way.

Yesterdays trades, I  just started to take the small trades were I could. I think I took 3 or 4 one point trades until I saw a big move coming and got a little anxious and jumped the gun. You can clearly see based on the my custom trade indicators that I went in way early and was only asking for trouble. I did switch to my T-1 short term model for a tighter entry, but it did not help as the market was just not ready. I wanted to pull the cake out of the oven before it was cooked, not a good idea. As I state in my notes on the screen, I had the right idea but was early and a bit anxious. I hug in there and was not afraid to load up on what I originally saw and milked the trade for  about a 10 point S&P move. I followed it up for another little topper after that, a great day.

I have the trades marked up on both screens as to where the key turning points are and it is just awesome, as the turning points were crystal clear. You just need the courage to trade them and you will and would have been sitting pretty. I would bet in yesterdays market if I tried to trade the whole day, I could have gotten at least half of the 75-80 points the day showed in available points. That would be 35-40 points of profit in one days session.

It would take a lot out of me to keep up the concentration one would need to do that, but I can see it is possible. For every point in the S&P emini futures it represents $50 dollars. If you trade 3 contracts that is $150 dollars per point x that by 35-40 points and that is a little less than $ 6k in a single day only trading small size. I totally believe in a session like yesterday, that it could have done that. I just don’t want to work that hard, as it is possible I could loose concentration and make mistakes. It is safer to trade for a modest sum and move on.

Usually, I only trade for 2-4 points with an occasional windfall day, like yesterday. Today was somewhere in between, but would call it above average for sure. As I mentioned earlier, we can always make mistakes, not trade our plan and or method and let emotion take over. You can not expect to do your best if you get anxious. I have a tendency to come in a little early at times and those are the trades that I get stopped out. I and or we, need to remember to let the trade come to us. If you look at yesterdays trade chart below, you will see I totally jumped the gun. The trade indicators are there to help you not get out in front of yourself, to hold you back until you have the momentum on your side.

Entering to early most of the time is an emotional response of “fear of lost opportunity”. I have blogged about that before, but you can see a clear example of it in the chart. I can try and justify it any way I want, I blew it. I am not perfect and know that I can always do better.

Being a good trader is not about being perfect, that will never happen, but if you can keep your mistakes to a minimum and take advantage of the gift trades the market occasionally gives you, you can do well. Consider this motto on occasion as well.

Get in – Get out and – Be done.

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S&P Futures Contract Roll Over Day

Sunday, March 14th, 2010

Today is Sunday, March 14th and this post is for Fridays market.

The market was very slow in trading volume, one reason was that it was roll over day. That is when most traders stop trading the past contract month, which was “H” and roll over to the new, “M”. So your new symbols should be ESM10.

Here is a way to get some of your data to flow, which can be a problem for some. With the new contract month, you don’t have very much past data to go by and it can make it a little hard to get a feel for the market rhythm this way.

Adjust your charts to @es and you will see continuous data. If you are using tick charts, range charts, volume charts or any other type of trading chart, it will bring back some of the data for you to trade off of. It is the same prices as the actual contract month, so you should not have any problems there.

Friday I had a small loss on the day. Trying to do to much and my head was not in the game. I was only down not even 1 point but commission make a little bigger. I will make up for any loss and then some this week. It is time to rack up a few points, I hope we have some volume to go with that order. We will see.

This week will be an important one. The market is basically at a double top with the S&P and Nasdaq markets and the Dow Jones is still lagging. The nasdaq has actually out performed pretty nicely and is up against some pretty definable resistance. A pullback would not be a surprise at these levels. I will put a chart of the S&P futures along with a cash chart of the Dow and NASDAQ markets all in a daily bar chart. You can see for yourself how things have fared over the last week. A pull back to support would not be abnormal from here as traders will be looking for any good reason to sell at this previous high. For prices to come down to the 1127 level would not be out of the question.

That is going to be it for tonight. I can see that the futures have what appears to be a head start on a retracement right now, but anything can change until tomorrows opening.

Stay alert and trade safe;

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About Us

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

My name is Vince Tarantino and I am the originator of SniperDayTrading.com. Below is a little about myself and how I got started in the business.

I started following the markets in the early 1980’s. I was young and just getting started in raising a family, so my capital to trade or even invest was very limited or non-existent. This did not stop my interest in trading. I started to read a lot and observe what was happening in the financial markets. I remember in the early 80’s the Dow trading up to a new milestone of 1500. Many thought it would never last, but it just kept going higher from there.

The 1987 stock market crash did not surprise me. I saw the over exuberance and euphoria that I had learned about, but not personally experienced, until that time. Even back then I always looked at market psychology and how it relates to trading.

We were in October and the market was waving a big RED FLAG to me, saying sell, sell, sell. Within one week, the market sold off in a large way. I had a small put option position in Phillip Morris. It worked out well as the market dropped and I made a very nice return.

In the early 90’s, I saw the recession coming and the subsequent market drop from that. Market sentiment was so bullish it only told me another big drop was at hand. Within a week, the market broke support and the sell off was underway.

Just after the early 90’s recession, I was laid up with a back injury and had a lot of time on my hands. Thinking what to do for a new career. What better field than a stock broker, I thought. I found a small brokerage company who sponsored me and became a licensed stock broker passing the series 7 & 63 tests. This was something I thought I wanted, until I realized that I would have to be pushing stock to clients that might not be the very best for them in their situation. In that business, it happens. So I canned that idea, but never stopped learning and dreaming of the day that it would all come together.

What I regret most of all was missing the big move of 1995. I was not in a position to take advantage of the move of the century. My professional career had taken a different direction and I did not have the luxury to take advantage of that market action. I did still follow it, because that’s my passion. I saw all the “would be” day traders try their hand at making a lot of money in the markets and many of them did. The problem is, unless you are equipped to handle all of the other factors that I will be mentioning in this site, you will lose, plain and simple and most of them did.

These new hopeful traders only saw one side of the market – UP. They did not educate themselves on how to handle a dropping market. They had been hypnotized into thinking that there was only one direction. Many people, on paper, had become wealthy, but it did not take long to show them that they were not worthy to hold onto their newly found gains because of the attitude that “this is easy”. It’s never easy and not without sacrifice.

Let me tell you from personal experience. Most people who are very successful in day trading have gotten beat up pretty badly, almost without exception. Their pride gets in the way, with them saying, “I can do this.” It doesn’t take long for them and others to realize that it is not easy, especially without mentoring or some professional training.

The year was 1995 and market was trading sideways to slightly up, with a lot of resistance overhead, and then it happened. One of the most explosive moves in stock market history and I was only able to watch it go by without me. It lasted uninterrupted for roughly 5 years, with a big hiccup in 1998, but back to new highs through the year 2000.

During this time I started my own little business of trading commodities. This was the actual products. Buying and selling. I had partners who put up the money and did the shipping. It worked out well. This was at the high of the market in 2000. The dot com bubble had burst and the whole market was coming with it because it to had become so overvalued by historical standards.

Again, I saw this one coming from a mile away. It was waving flags in front of me, saying again, “sell, sell.” I tried to warn those who would listen. At least I did what I could. During this big market sell off I was trading high volatility stocks and was doing very nicely. I was able to put together a long string of winning days, over a month and half straight. Things were going well and I was content with my method and results, when I was rudely interrupted. I suffered some medical problems that made it impossible for me to continue. I never gave up on my dream, though, through many difficult times and set backs.

That day has finally come and I am very thankful to my family, who has been very supportive, and to God who was there with me through all my trials. As I continue to move forward in life, I will be sharing my trading ideas and experience with a select few who also have a desire and passion to succeed in this business.

I love to teach this stuff. I believe this is a time of abundance and blessing. Sharing and teaching is a way of giving back some of those blessings. It could not have come at a better time. The world financial situation is not getting any better. I will be keeping my readers abreast of the real economic situation on my daily blog.

Trading the market is not everything in life and I have come to know that. I have learned to see things differently as I have gotten older and that’s good. Knowing who you are as a person is so very important before you begin trading. I take time each day and thank God for my current good health, my family who loves me, friendships that I have built up over the years, and my involvement in my local community. This, I believe, is true wealth.

I live in a small town in Northern California. It is in a valley surrounded by mountains on all sides. Elevation is about 2,500 feet, so we get snow in the winter and I love it. I moved here from the San Francisco bay area after my two children were grown, over 3 years ago now. It was the best thing I could have done.

I live with my wife in a modest home and do enjoy a little gardening and my new Australian Shepard dog, “Buddy,” who has just been great. I always wanted a dog and now have the perfect place for one. He keeps me in shape. I do a lot of hiking, exploring, and some fishing with my free time. I live between two small towns of about 7oo people each, but have a bigger town of 7,000 just 20 minutes away. I and my wife Angela like to go to Ashland, Oregon just over the border for a variety of activities and cultural experiences.

It’s a different life, but I love it and again thank God for it. I am spiritually minded and it has served me well. It gives me hope in so much more than we are able to see in the world around us. I believe it is my destiny to help others and I feel God has given me a gift of giving. I need to be faithful and continue to pursue the gift He has given me so that I may be able to bless others in the coming days ahead. This site is a part of that. I pray that God will also bless you with what I write here and on my website to fulfill your dreams, and that you too will take the blessing and share with others your resources and talents. We can all do our part to make a difference.

May you be richly blessed all of your days,

Vince

For more information you can email me at vinnie@sniperdaytrading.com.

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Face Your Day Trading Weaknesses with Change !

Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010

Today is Monday February 1st and what a good way to start the first trading day of the month, +15 on the S&P and +118 on the Dow, but will it last?

Currently, the momentum on the daily charts is down and the 120 minute chart (2 hour) has just turned up today. The weekly chart is flirting with a turn in the momentum, but it has not happened yet. A lower weekly close and I am sure it will turn down. So, a pull back up for now, will bring a moment of pause to the market from this recent sell off. We could see a sizable move, if the market can get up over todays high with any conviction.

I do see some pretty strong over-head resistance just a couple of points higher from todays close. We very well may see a slight rise on the open, followed by a pull back down inside the range one more time, before we make another attempt to break out of the downtrend. We will see what tomorrow brings, it should be good. I think the price action is going to get better, with good swings in both directions.

I did not post anything for Fridays session, I had company over the weekend, but I will post a video managing Fridays last trade + 5 S&P points and show my results for the rest of that day.

In todays trading, I did pretty good. I could have had all winners, but I did not take enough time after a break I took, to better accurately see where we were and likely to go, resulting in a loose of one point. Other than that, I had several trades that I scaled out of the positions for multiple point gains and a few 1 pointers or so. It’s in the video below if you care to take a look.

I was going to stop after my first three trades, which was plenty for my daily goal, enough for even the high side. After taking a break for about an hour, I thought to come back for another session. I don’t always do this and I don’t always recommend traders trade all day or even most of the day, because fatigue can set in and the likelihood for making mistakes goes up.

If I do come back, I almost always cut my size down. That way, if I have losses, it is not going to impact my gains as big a degree. If I have additional gains, it only gets added on for nice day. This is a conservative approach and is recommended if you already have made your daily goal.  

We have all heard of “Money Management” and how important it is. It is true. If you increase your size when you are not trading well, you make everything harder, not easier. Traders often try to get back what they lost by doing so, which is one reason of many, that most don’t make it. I hope that is not the case for those who take the time to read my trading blog. I try to give a mix of different idea’s, thoughts and insight into a day traders world.

Most of us pursue this business because we love it. We love it for the opportunities that it can bring as well as many other reasons.  Some traders want to make it ($) fast and lots of it. I don’t recommend that either. If you go to fast, you only speed the process up to the point where you will again make mistakes, loosing the hope you had when you first started out. You can’t change past trading mistakes that we all make, but we can try to uncover what it is we just did, why we did it and what are we going to do to change. If we don’t take all three of those seriously, we will only come back another day and repeat the same trading mistakes all over again.

I was watching a movie recently where a patient was seeing a doctor. He told him, it hurts when I do this. The Doctor then said, if it hurts when you do that, then don’t do it. We don’t like it when we take losses that are not apart of our plan, strategy or method, but your first loss is best. Why is it that we to often take trades that don’t fit our model. Lack of patients is one of them. I admit, I don’t have all the patients I could use sometimes while trading. That is why I trade small time frames. I don’t have to wait to long for another trade to come my way. If you are trading 15 minute  bars or even 5 price bars, you may have to wait for some time.

The point is, everyone is different and we all need to find our strengths and weaknesses. If you know what your are strong in, work on making it better. The area’s of weakness, take extra time and reflect what is holding you back. To often, it is in our minds. I am serious. There are a lot of good traders out there that are just an inch away from bringing it all together. They just need a little help, guidance and support.

Let me give you two things that can really help those who feel that you are so close to bringing consistent profitability to light. I know of and have heard of traders who have done this and they say, it is the best thing they could have done. I have talked before about how important the mind is and to often, how we see ourselves inside, gets transferred outside. If you don’t have the inside part right we only work against every good thing we try to bring to the trading screen.

There are many ways to go about thinking the right way, not only when we trade but throughout the day. I can see that I am close to my typing limit and I will probably just wait until tomorrow to better give you the right background on this. If traders take this seriously, I truly believe it will help some if not many bring up there, BOTTOM LINE. 

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Live S&P Futures Trading Video’s Today

Monday, November 2nd, 2009

Today is Monday, November 2nd and the Market holds.

Well, we were anticipating some pretty important market action today and so far so good. The Dow was up about 75 points today, but in order to slow down and turn this market around, we will have to see about 75 more Dow points to the upside. That is current overhead resistance and will need to break above that (9860) pretty decisively.

I think I said it all in yesterdays post, so I won’t repeat myself here again. We just need some time to see how this is going to play out and the above scenario lays out the other side of the equation.  Tomorrow, I will post a daily chart of the Dow and S&P to better show you what I have been saying.

Today, I took 3 trades starting around the New York afternoon session, 11 a.m. West Coast.  The first was a split trade and half came off at only 3 ticks, the second half was stopped out for -4 ticks. I was looking for the turn and just a touch early. So this trade gave me a net loss of  -1 tick on half the position,- $12.50.

The next trade, I did find the turn that I was looking for and picked up + 1 point on 2 contracts and let the other half run for +8.25 points. I was looking for prices to get a little higher but I did not push it, I got out at 1035.25 and I saw a potential high for the move at 1038. We came within 2 ticks of that trade high call at 1037.50 before the market retreated 6 points.

I re-entered long right at one of my “Turning Points” at 1033 and did not take half off early like I normally do but let the market take me to exactly where I thought it would, with the whole position. Once I was getting close to my target area, I took off half the position at +5.75 points of profit. I gave the other half some room to work, so it could make an attempt to hit the high side of 1040. It did not make it and I got stopped out at +4.25 points on the other half.

That was all quite OK.  I did notice that after I got stopped out, that the price did turn just after and move up to hit the 1040 level I had called. 

We were running out of time, but I did and still do see 1043 before the move is finished, but that will probably come in the night session or in tomorrow market. 

On that pull back, off the first good move, I was looking for prices to come down to 1031.75, which was 6 points off the previous high. Well, we came within 1 tick, 1031.50.

I make reference to all of this in the video’s I have posted below. These are live trading video’s of everything I just wrote above. The first three are tied to the first two orders and the last two are tied to the last trade.

I am not really saying how I come up with these trades on the video’s but I am reading price action. I do have a custom indicator that I have created that gives you these “Turning Points” and only risks 1 S&P point on the trade.  I do build my screens up with a few more tools to complement each style of trading I am in.

If I were to trade, this mornings session, there were good low risk turning points present there as well and would have easily gotten my daily goal, (2 to 4 points)  

Around 9 a.m. West Coast time, the market gave some traders a big gift, a 16 point sell off. I am sure I would have had some of that. I do see possibly getting out once and re-entering again short, but that was a fantastic move. Their were great add-on spots on the way, if you so chose to, but, what I am saying is these ”Turning Points”, happen all day, when the market is moving.

Yesterday was just incredible for my “Turning Point” signals. The market was definitely moving and if you knew where those low risk entry points where and positioned yourself in font of it, you would have done well. They were happening all day long, one after another, for huge moves.  My stops on the entries were still one point and the majority worked out for multiple point gainers.  

When the market is not moving much and price action is quite, I love to trade out of my T-1 scalp screen. Very accurate for short moves, averaging about 3/4 point each. I really only need a few of these to hit my daily goal and do just that, if the market is moving or not. Even in a slow chop zone, if you follow the method, it comes out. I will say, that the opposite is true as well. I am thinking and speaking to myself here. When I don’t follow my method and at times I don’t, just like everyone else, it does not usually work out and that is a good thing, believe it or not. I do not want to reinforce negative behavior and am glad the trades do not work when I go outside my method.

That is the exception, not the rule, because I do a pretty good job in following my method, plan and rules. The same will be true for anyone else who attempts to do the same.

These turning points are very easy to see and have only a few conditions attached to them before you can enter the trade, not to hard and very clear. I have all of this layed out in my 80 page manual and DVD video series. The price for my course is coming down as I have stated before. Any one interested to learn more, contact me at vinnie@sniperdaytrading.com

http://www.screencast.com/t/ZHl13cgkmDz2 

http://www.screencast.com/t/fUjVI35OFQQw 

http://www.screencast.com/t/JzGvvo6Ihy2

http://www.screencast.com/t/IZn8fKfNoM2 

http://www.screencast.com/t/9RC43BbNjSjh

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Will Dow Jones Industrial support hold?

Monday, November 2nd, 2009

This post is for Fridays session, October 30th.

The market sold off like fiercely on Friday and took the Dow down about 250 points. The S&P was off about 30 points. I did think that a re-test of the Wednesday and Thursdays low would come, but not so fast. I thought we had at least one more day to top out for the counter trend rally. There was news that came out on Friday, not really sure what it was to tell you the truth, but I could only imagine that it wasn’t good and the market reacted to it. It is to be expected.

Let me tell you, that in the month of September and October, the general public has become bullish. The last two months has only produced paltry gains when compared to the gains of the previous six months. That is where all of the money has been made. The general public is always late to the party and I don’t imagine that this time is going to be any different.

Mondays session is going to tell all, at least for now. What I mean is as I was telling you last week that the Dow has been outperforming the S&P and that was a problem. Well, it is not only the S&P that it is outperforming but the other index’s, but in a bigger way.

Based on my experience and I did not see this or hear this from anywhere, but years of seeing price action at work, the institutions are lightening up their riskier positions and reallocating equity assets in the high quality Dow Stocks. I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago, if I remember correctly. That is pretty typical at market tops

The Nasdaq Index is at a double bottom from its most recent pivot point low, something that the S&P is thinking about doing, to follow suit. The Russel 2000 Index has already overwhelmingly broke its most recent pivot low, by a wide margin. The Dow on the other hand has not broken down yet at all, but is sitting right on a major trend line support.

So, the Dow is the strongest, next comes the S&P 500, then the Nasdaq and lastly the Russel 2000. If the Dow holds and moves higher, the other indexes will only be making a counter trend rally, but will still remain in a down-trend, stopping at overhead resistance. Once the Dow does break down, all of the other Indexes will only go down that much farther and faster. There is a lot of room for the market to move back to the middle of its range of the last 8 months.

The last thing I will say about all of this tonight is, “Earnings”. I don’t follow this much either, but just the big picture. The projected earning that Standard & Poors are putting out for the S&P 500 for next year are a bit of a fairy tale. They have been constantly wrong and now they are painting a wonderful rebound of large proportion in earnings. Anything is possible, but I doubt it. I had heard, according to Bloomburg, that the S&P has had declining earnings for 9 straight quarters and only this last quarter have they been able to increase earnings. Those increases are from very depressed levels, not that hard. The increase in earnings in my estimation is coming from cost cutting in various forms. You can only cut cost so much and for so long, before you can not cut anymore. Where are the increases in sales going to come from. No one is spending and no one is lending and money??? INTERESTING.

That is why, the market is going to adjust itself to reflect where it is going to be in 6-9 months from now, probable lower. Just now the S&P is turning their earnings, like this month. If you invest in these companies now, you are going to pay way to much. But that is what the public does. You needed to be invested at least 6 months ago to be able to enjoy some of this rally, not two months ago, like I talked about at the top of todays post.

We need to see what the Dow is going to do in Mondays session. If it to breaks support, then all of the indexes will have downside momentum working for it. But if it can hold, there is now room for it to clear 10,300, a complete 50 retracement from it’s all time high. The S&P numbers for the same retracement are 1120. We got close.

The sentiment numbers backed off just a little last week. It is sitting at 48% Bulls. A reading of 55% is considered bearish. We only got as high as 51. One last push to the numbers above could push the reading to 55%, the big word in there is COULD.

Friday’s session was incredible. So many great clear signals all day long. I only took one trade and it was split up, what I call a “T-2″.   The first half for +1 point and the second part for 3 1/2 points. I was in the market for less than 1 minute on the first part and 4 more minutes for the second part. I really only had my screen open for 15 minutes, start to finish. There will be plenty of other trading days to capture higher point returns. But my daily goal was meet, no struggle, no fuss, no mess. Just the way I like it.

Until tomorrow

 

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Freedom comes in many forms

Saturday, October 17th, 2009

Today is Friday October 16th and the market pulled back at the close of the session, off yesterdays highs.

Well, we did pull back, but not before the future’s market pushed higher by 5 S&P points. That was just about the amount I saw, in higher prices. The thing is, the move was made in the future’s market not the cash market. We trade out of the future’s market, so the call was some what right. The point to that was the pull back off the last push higher. Smart money saw what I saw and said, I am not going to wait for tomorrows open to cover my position and take my profit, I am going to do it right now. They sure did and prices pulled back until the open and then just continued to fall. The cash market caught up to the futures and fell with it. As mentioned before, the cash market very often will follow the futures prices and move accordingly.

I think this move may be marking a little time, moving over in the chart to create more room, so that prices can go higher and not run into resistance. That process, may take a few days and slightly down is OK. If the index drops more than about 3 points on the S&P, it is going to bring in some additional selling and we may see a drop of 20 points or so. Currently we are sitting on some key support in the hourly cash chart. That is the next move. If this, then that. The break first, then the drop.

Just a reminder, It was two years and a week now that the all time high was reached in October 11th, 2007. Everyone is just remembering the big drop from last October, but we were in the process of dropping a whole year before that. WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE. I remember a song titled like that, I think it was from the 80’s, O well. That is the question?

I recently spoke to a few people who thought the market was going to continue higher over the next couple of years and had to disagree with them. To many things to say exactly why, but is this time different? That is alway the age old question. Every time the market has dropped, we have always pulled back up. The answer to that is yes and no. Yes before and possibly no now?

It has been 11 years since the first time the markets saw this price. That is a long time. Eleven years ago, in 1998 October, we briefly brushed up against a recession and quickly bounced back to soon there after bolt to the all time high a couple of years later. The market has not made any progress for all that time. If someone was wanting to retire and needed the money, he may or may not have gotten out at a good time. We have gone up, down, all the way back up and all the way back down since that time. As of late, another attempt for higher prices, but will this attempt be met with stiff opposition or not.

The P/E ratio’s are priced as such looking forward to earings of the future and they are very optimistic in reflecting a robust outlook, because currently by all measure of historical standards, we are way overpriced.

If anything happens to disrupt this rosy earnings rebound we will be met with a violent, fast adjustment down. Only after the market starts to interpret the news and reallocate its opinion, will it be able to tell us its next move. A move back down to the middle of this rally range, will be the best case scenario if this break and adjustment happen. Lets hope for that. If the drop does not stop, it will be because of serious problems we can not control.

The dollar is on the edge of its seat right now. The pressure coming against it is very strong. I believe I have written about it before. If anyone is interested I can give you a few articles explaining in great detail what may be about to happen. vinnie@sniperdaytrading.com  This is not a theory, but it is fact and can not be hide forever. There are some serious problems in the country, don’t be surprised if things go sour once again. There is a giant band-aid on an open wound. Is it going to stop the bleeding? No one really knows but all we can do is look at the signs.

The time to make money is still at hand, so let us not roll up in a ball of fear, but face our fears. I have met a lot of people who can not handle the possibility that things may not always be as they were in this country. For them, not knowing is the best way they can coup. I guess if I had limited knowledge I may be inclined to think that way, but I am glad I see life clearly, the world clearly, the trading markets clearly and many other areas. I am not afraid of the future but look at it through the eyes of opportunity and not only for myself, but for others.

We have the ability to make choice everyday. Sometimes we make good ones and other times not so good. It is not where you were that counts, but it’s WHERE ARE YOU GOING, that matters. We only go around this globe once and I think we should make it count. It is time for all those who aspire to live and experience there dreams to do so now.

That is what I have decided and I am investing myself into the things that will take me there. Financial freedom is just one of those area’s. Not having to worry about money is a worthy goal, but how you get there does make a difference. Day Trading the S&P E-Mini Futures is just one of the ways I am able to live my dreams. It is a means to an end, not the end.

http://www.screencast.com/t/WyQNJoc8vmj             Turning points in “Scalp Mode” Fridays session

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Dow Hit Resistance at 8240 + Level

Friday, May 1st, 2009

Today is Wednesday, April 30 and resistance is met at 8240, will it break through?

Today’s trading went easy, picking up all trades entered, 8 for 8, but all the trades were very small contract size. I just took it easy because yesterday after the Fed announcement, which I don’t even know what they said, I took a trade that looked real good. I planned it for a high point move and it played out as planned, 5 1/2 points on 5 contracts, 1375. So I just took it easy today and totaled little over 4 points, but just on a few contracts.

Yesterday, I said to watch the 8250 level, that was going to be a key resistance level. Well, it went right up to it yesterday and retreated like it saw a ghost, straight down. Today, it went for a second run at that resistance level, same thing, retreat. Two attempts and no luck. That level will need to be broken to the upside for the trend to continue. Tomorrow, I will show a chart of it, looks very clear.

Also, in looking at the Fed news release, it was funny to see it play out exactly like I said that it usually does. That is, after the announcement, it will shoot in one direction, to suck players in, then over shoot in the other direction and take everyone out and then it will establish the move that it wants to make. Pretty much exact. Once it hit that 8240-8250 level, it went straight down.

All of this is not really that important.  It’s only important that you are able to position yourself to take advantage of some of these moves and I did that as stated above.

I will post a full article for tomorrow’s blog and possibly show the trade after the Fed news – I recorded it!

Have a great evening!

http://www.screencast.com/t/xMyEoaQud Today’s equity chart

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