Today is Tuesday December 14th, and what a slow day of trading until the Fed announcement at 11:15 West Coast today.
The last few sessions have seen slow range bound market moves that are very trying for many traders. I was happy to have basically stepped aside the last few days. I dipped my toe in the water today before the Fed announcement, but I did not like what I felt and left the trade with a one tick gain. I thought it just might have been best to close it up and see if I can wait for tomorrow session. I hope to be ready for the open and see if I can make up some ground for not trading much the last few days.
The market seems to be a bit resilient in that it does not want to go down. Since Thanksgiving, the market sentiment turned very bullish which generally is not a good sign and will likely mark a coming change in direction. I have seen many times over the years, as if you don’t get a reaction after the shift in market sentiment, a bigger play is at hand.
More and more traders, investors, and the like are and have become more bullish as the tax repeal seems like it is going to go through which for one, will keep capital gains at the lower level. If for what ever reason, it seems like capital gains tax will go up, you will see the peoples reaction in selling equities.
In looking at the daily charts, I do see a little more room up if the market wants to exercise that, to around 1260 or so, but we will take one day at a time. With the masses being so bullish right now, a sell off can come in at any time. The longer it takes for things to settle in, the more people will become fully invested and the slaughter will become that much more painful for those who don’t see it coming. I have never seen an extreme bullish bias correct by itself without the help of a falling market. I am sure this one will be no different, but we will just have to wait it out.
Currently, the daily momentum is still pointing up, but the last two sessions we have seen late sell-offs towards the end of the day usually not a sign a strength.
Below is a U-Tube video of today’s action leading up to the Fed announcement. Nothing to exciting but show a few scalp trades entry spots that could have been had. I trade and teach how to trade based off of the price and the traders that drive the price. If you know how they typically think and react when certain conditions are present, you gain valuable insight into the next move. That is what I teach and how to project where prices can go. You can take this method and move it to different size tick or volume charts and or move it to time charts. It will work on stocks and or other futures.
In the video above, towards the end, I show the S&P 500 cash market in a daily chart and point out some of the corresponding trade signals based on the indicators, but that again is to show how they line up with the indicators on a much larger time frame. Trading and following indicators is not the Sniper Day Trading Method, but understanding price action and how traders react to certain area’s as it unfolds is. The indicators can confirm your decision to buy or sell, but is no means the reason.
Good Trading to all.
