Posts Tagged ‘rally’

Market Rallied on Called Number

Thursday, December 15th, 2011

Today is Thursday December 15th, 2011 and we did see a market reversal on cue from yesterdays call.

I stated yesterday that we would see a sell off early on down to the 1197 area and that would spark a nice rally. We saw that exactly, but the sell off came in the night session and we did rally significantly from that point, +22 S&P points right after. From there, we saw another sell off back down, but things leveled out and we stayed in a very narrow range for the rest of the session. I was looking for a regular session move to confirm the original early move to the number, but it did not come in time before the session ended, it may show up tomorrow?

In today’s trading session, I took roughly 5 trades and came out with a nice day in hand. I will have to admit I was reaching for today retest of the early numbers, that I called for and as mentioned it did not come in time. Still was sharp enough to close out some of the moves with profit locked in.

At the end of this week, I will be taking off from trading thru the Holiday’s and restarting in January, and was trying to beef up some gains today to make up for time off. I have enough confidence in the trading method that it would produce more if I kept at it and that would have been the case if we had some movement. Early on in the session we saw was some good moves and would have done well if I was there to trade it. Let me post the days trades and will continue below.

You can see the spike down early on in the chart as it hit the called area, within one S&P point. I was debating to call 1197 or 1198 yesterday and chose the lower number, but I will have to say that was a pretty good call overall, within one point.

To trade off of that would have been nice, but I was asleep as most us. I was looking for a retest in the regular session, but had to take profit on those 3 key area lows to lock it in as it was just taking it’s sweet time. I traded almost 4 hours today and that is way more than I have done in months.  I can only wait on the price action and take what it offers and that is what I did today. I don’t want to overly commit to a call or position that will cause me harm because things change and we need to be able to change with them or suffer.

I was not about to suffer today if I could help it and that calls for being conservative and not overly aggressive. I could take that aggressive stand more often and increase size at opportune times and come up with more, but have been content with the little I do, plugging away.  Maybe one day I will step it up.

There is plenty of time and find that I am still learning things about the market, as we all should be. No one arrives to a final destination as a trader. It is a constant evolution that continues its advance forward to more and greater insight. That is how it should be for everyone else as well.

Being a good day trader takes time. If you have a good method, a good mentor and some tools, you can cut that time down considerably. That could mean the difference between years and months. I know it has taken me the years side to get where I am, as I literally learned it all on my own. Lots of trial and error with a extra measure of error as is the case with many traders. I never bought or paid for anything trading related except a couple of books back in the 80’s and that is the truth. I am not saying that was a smart thing to do, but just sharing my experience. Thus, I have seen a lot over many many years and as mentioned am still learning.  This has shown me many things about the price action of stocks, index’s, option, futures, and currencies.
Everyone is in a different place and we can all see the allure that trading offers, but I feel traders who are starting out really need to go much slower than they do. It seems easy, but it rarely is. It may be simple in some respects, but that is met with the unseen challenges of us. We to often are our worst enemy when it comes to bridging the gap towards profitability. If we could take an equal amount of time for self-improvement in all area’s of life, you would see how much that would help your trading. This is the unseen sword that can slash us to pieces if we are not mentally prepared. On the other hand for those that see the essential benefit for taking action in this fashion, they are rarely disappointed for their efforts
That’s it for now, I will be back tomorrow for “the rest of the story”.

Stock Market Looking at New Highs

Thursday, July 7th, 2011

Today is July 7th, 2011 and we saw more bullish action on the street today. It looks like the market found something to rally on in the better than expected jobs report. The bulk of the days gains came in the gap opening and left little room for the rest of us. Often a very large gap opening will take volatility away from the rest of the session and today was no exception.

Later on in the day the market did give those who could wait, a few good long opportunities. I stopped just before that, but that is really fine. I had a small loss on the session and just gave up with the lack luster price action. I have a screen shot of the day action below. The indicators were on, but a few of the early trades I took would have been better served if I waited. All in all, I am OK with it, a very small loss is fine and can easily be made up in another session. I won’t be thinking about making it up, but it will just happen. That way, there is no added reminder or pressure to do so. Good Trading to all.

Looking For Big Move in the Markets

Tuesday, June 7th, 2011

Today is June 7th, 2011 and I am looking for a big move in the market coming up here in the next few days.

We are at a pivotal point in the all the market index’s as of today. We will either break down and push substansially lower from current levels or we will see the strength come back into the market to everyone’s amazement. Which will it be?

I can only tell you how I feel. I could be wrong here, but don’t think so. Make up your own mind, but considering the input of others is fine.

I just get the feeling that we will yet again see another rally off this critical area. It is not the convention wisdom as many of so called people in the know, think we will see a substantial market drop. Hey, they could be right, but I think until proven, the bulls still have the advantage, even though we have seen four weeks of selling. Technically, we have not broken down and are still within the realm of a retracement within an uptrend. It won’t last for ever, but until it breaks you have to stay with bulls and again, that is just my opinion.

If we see a substantial break from these levels, it is over for a while. If we can hold this area here and not give up any more ground, the bulls have a chance of hanging on. We will see soon enough how it all plays out.

In my own trading, I have been tied up with family matters still, but I did find a way to participate. I saw a nice trade in the night session and put it on. The first half was for two points and the second half I held it over through the night and closed it out just before today’s open. That was the best I could do and it made up for yesterday and today modestly with a 2 & 6 point gain. The screen shot chart of that is below. Hopefully, I will have time to get back into the action, but I will just have to take it one step at a time.

Market Turning Point Coming, Get Ready !

Tuesday, August 31st, 2010

Today is Tuesday August 31st, 2010 and I really think tomorrow is the day, we rally.

I have taken things a little on easy side lately, trying to enjoy the summer days as they are here. I have wanted to write and keep up with my blog, but the calling for time off was just a little greater. So, to those who are loyal followers, I apologize.

In today’s trading action, I was on pins and needles as we were coming into the close. I kid you not. I saw few things that told me, “if we did not rally up as we did, there was trouble for tomorrows open”. I remember it clearly, as these thoughts were traveling through my mind. I looked at everything and it all said, rally or die. We rallied at the close and I felt revealed.

The reason is, traders pick up on were the close of the day is. If it is on the lows, it sets the tone for many scenario’s. Program traders, Black Box traders and on and on. This would have had very negative signals for the coming weeks. There is a path down to S&P 945 and I did not want to see that happen. I am a long term “Bear”, just to let you know, if you didn’t already, but I just don’t think it is going to come when everyone else thinks it should.

We are going into the worst two months of the year historically, September and October. I can not tell you how many bad periods I have seen first hand with these two months as they are in-front of us. With that said, their is always the exception and what a better time then now for it.

This market has been very tricky lately in trying to fake out those who believe they have it figured out. It has waited to the very last hour of the very last day, to make a lasting impression on those who believe we are about to crack on down to lower levels from here. I tell you know, I could be wrong as I have stated before. We have not as of yet cracked as those who say we are going to, but have waited for the last 6 days in a very narrow trading range to either prove me right or wrong. It is just an opinion and is not going to change one dollar from my personal bottom line, but, I would like to get this call right in that I see everyone biting on the short trade right now and would like to be in the minority to better prove them wrong and share my insight why to those who follow my writings.

OK, I think you know I am short term bullish from here and am expecting a big rally as of tomorrow. I can’t see this going another day. It looks so right for a rally and or a crash. I can’t be blind to the fact I could have it wrong, even if I don’t think so. I always need to look to the other side. Even in a short term trade, you have to look to both sides. If you don’t, you could be blinded to what you want to see, rather than what actually is.

I made that one mistake today. I was tired in doing a phone session with a potential client and did not take a break, but just stayed at the screen and I started to see what I wanted to see. Almost like a mirage, and suddenly it appeared. In my delusion, I created a scenario of what I wanted to see, not what was. This can happen to any of us and it is not the first time or won’t likely be the last time.

By being over stretched and not fresh and or having little ability to exercise “The Power of Concentration” I am not surprised I tried to create a trade in my own mind. If you watch the video below, you will see the trade I was talking about. Looking at my trade indicators, you can clearly see that I really making a stretch for a long in the place I took that trade.

After I woke up from my slumber, I could see I was only dreaming. To take a long trade where I did, I must have been asleep. The other trades were OK, as they were all winning trades, but I could have done better there still. I did have to compensate for a bad entry by a  couple of ticks, which I don’t really like to do. I should not be complaining as I had 5 of 6 and ended up very nicely for the day. I had one loss for 5 ticks and multiple points profits. 

To finish up, I see this market has gone 6 days in a very small range and it is wound up so tight, it is just waiting to pop. The question is, which way. With the market sentiment so negative, I have to give the bias to the upside and say the surprise is going to come in with a big rally. I mentioned a few days ago that 1100 is strong resistance and we will likely trade up to that level pretty soon. Backing off from their a little is normal and a little expected, but if a break above 1100 S&P futures kicks in, we will see higher prices on top of that. So everyone knows what I am looking for, but will it happen. It is not the popular opinion right now and I am OK with that. Either way, I will make my daily goals when I trade because I will be reading current price action. That is the basis for my trading method. All trade indicators are secondary. That is a real big point and is exactly as stated. With that said, I am happy to have the trade indicators I use of which I only show a very small part of them as in the video.

I wish all my readers the very best. If anyone has comments or wants to ask questions I am very available to answer and would be glad to do so. Even if it is not about my trading method. Just ask and I will respond to you ASAP.

Vince

Double Top Approaching in S&P 500 Index

Wednesday, March 10th, 2010

Today is Tuesday March 9th and the markets have moved higher over that last few sessions.

The S&P is currently within striking distance of its old high, creating a “Double Top”,  where the Dow Jones is still pretty far behind. The shining star is the Nasdaq as it has already surpassed its previous high from early January.

The market sentiment has increased only slightly this last week to 42% bulls, which is OK. When it gets to around 55%, that will be a sign that there is to much optimism and we could see serious selling pressure. Back in January just before the drop, we got to around 53% but the level of bearishness was at a 10 year low of 15%. That was a strong contrary position for the market to trade the other way. It was only when the bullishness increased into the 50% + area did the market take its cue and drop as both were at extremes by historical standards.

We currently have room to rally, but are coming up against previous highs and that double top in the index. I don’t have any predictions so to speak but currently I have noticed the volume weaker than I would have expected. That to me is not a good sign.

Currently the market has some very clear key spots on the charts that need to remain intact for the uptrend to continue. If we break them, you can bet that you will see the sellers. If there is little volume and conviction to buy, we just may see it on the other side, when that day comes.

I have been very busy this last week and have had little time to trade. I am not to worried about it, it is just temporary and will be back at it pretty soon. Any points I have missed out on, I will make them up. I did trade for a few moments on Friday and picked up 1 point, no trading Monday and only traded for about 10 minutes today and caught 1.25 points. I have been working on producing some new training video’s and updating other training material as well as re-working my website. Lots of work, but its still fun work. I love what I do and am very thankful for it all.

Here is a couple of screen shots of my tiny trades. No big deal, that is for sure, but it is better than a loss. When things settle down, I will focus more on my own trading and pick up more than enough to make up for my shortcomings.

I still hope to change my personal schedule around to trade the open. Somehow I need to do that. There have been days last week that the afternoon session is producing nothing like it used to. The morning session is the way to go, like the first 60-90 minutes. Trading during these hours will most often offer several points in the first 30 minutes. So that is where the opportunity lies.

I will have to personally challenge myself to get up at the 5 am time needed to prepare and settle in for the 6:30 am West Coast opening. It has not been easy, but I know what the rewards are.

That’s it for today,until tomorrow;

Good Trading

Glossary

Thursday, February 25th, 2010




Common Terms and Definitions Used in E-Mini Day Trading
Show All Definitions | Hide All Definitions


Back Months:
Bear:
Bear Market:
Bid:
CME:
Contract:
Day Trader:
Dow Eminis:
Emini:
Russell Eminis:
Front Month:
Futures:
Limit Order:
Market Order:
Mini:
Stock Index:
Swing Trading:
Tick:

Beginner’s Info

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Before you start trading, it is very important that you know what it is that you are doing and what you are trading. It is similar to trading stocks but at the same time, very different. There is a definition of terms for those who need to know the basic language in the glossary.

We are trading the S&P 500 E-Mini Futures contract. This represents a shadow or a mirror of movement in the S&P 500 cash index. Traders and institutions across the globe buy and sell contracts with each other. For many, it is a hedge against a portfolio they own and sell contracts equal to the value of their portfolio as a form of insurance. Pension funds and large institutions do the same as well as mutual fund managers.

They are buying and selling protection in the form of contracts against the Index. To do this they need a very liquid pool of futures contracts to draw from and that is where the trader comes into the picture. He or she may not want to hedge their portfolio, but may want to speculate on the future direction of the market. Traders are an essential ingredient to offer the liquidity that the institutions need to quickly move into and out of the market.

I once heard a man ask a trader what he does for a living and his answer was, “I am an asset liquidity provider, how about you”. That statement is true. That is what we do.

Each contract traded represents 50 times the current value of the index. Lets say that the Index is 1000, a nice round number. Multiply 1000 x 50 = $ 50,000 and that is the value of one contract. If the index was trading at 1100 the value of the contract would be $ 55,000. You need to put up a deposit for the right to buy and hold a contract. If you hold the position over night, you will need about $ 5,000 deposit. If you close the position at the end of the trading session the margin will go down to about $ 1,250 for one contract.(day trade margin)

At Sniper Day Trading, we trade for a modest daily goal most days, between 2-4 points. The S&P 500 emini futures trades in ticks. There are 4 ticks that make up one point. Each tick is $12.50 and since there is 4 ticks to a point, one point is $50, 4 x $12.50= $50. If our daily goal is capture 2-4 points we are trading for $100-$200 dollars per contract traded. With an opening balance of $5,000 you could conceivably buy or sell 4 contract. So to use the example above, 4 contracts traded x 100 to 200 each contract, you would be making $400-800 per day.

We don’t recommend that traders start trading the maximum, but start at the smallest and work your way up. It is possible, averaging 2 points per day that in 4 weeks you could be trading at 4 contracts and bringing in the kind of money above. You can stay at that level or increase it over time. What ever you feel comfortable with. You may decide to go slower and reach that level in 2 or 3 months and that is OK. The main thing is averaging that 2 points per day over an extended period. It is very possible, people are doing that and more all over the country and you could to.

On the main page we talk a lot about discipline, patients, and focus, all essential things for reaching your goals. But first you need to know how to trade. I offer that in my course and if you decide to become part of the family, I will see to it that you understand my trading method and how to apply it.

When we put on a trade, we teach how to enter at just the right moment as the momentum will carry you higher or lower which ever way to you are trading.

Make Money as prices go up or down

Which brings me to my next point. You can make money in either direction, up or down. Often, prices go down a lot faster that they do going up. The principal works the same. When you put on a trade that is going up, we would call that a LONG TRADE and when you put on a trade that is going down, we call that a SHORT TRADE. We teach how to take these trades in a clear concise way. No gray area.

When we take a Long Trade, we Buy to Open / Sell to Close

When we take a Short Trade, we Sell to Open / Buy to Close

There is always someone on the other side of the trade to take the position, the price is the only thing that changes. If you sold the futures or “Shorted” the market at the S&P price of 1091 and you covered the trade by buying it back at a lower price at 1088, you just made a 3 point profit of $50 X 3 points = $ 150 dollars per contract traded.

Remember that each tick is broken up in quarters and 4 quarters make up 1 point. You can think of it like 4 quarters make a dollar, but in this case, it makes $50, because each tick is worth $12.50.

Commission cost for the transaction varies on the broker but the typical costs is about $2.00 to buy one contract and $2 to sell one contract. The complete transaction is called “round-turn”, buying, then selling.

TIME CHARTS

When building our charts on the screen, we use tick data. Tick data is different than time data. Trading in a one minute bar chart is the smallest increment of time that you can use. When using TICK CHARTS, you can create a much more detailed view of the trading history. It is through this trading history that we are able to draw up our entries in this much more detailed view. It allows us to enter at the exact point, Sniper Style, to hit our mark. Get in, Get out, Get done.

We teach precise entry and exit points using these tick charts and with the ongoing training you will always see the method applied to current data.

Above, is an example of a Candle Stick Chart. These are typical setups for us, as you can see the entries short and then long. The first trade was good for 1 to 2 points and the second good for the same or higher.

I usually follow bar charts that have an open, high, low and close to them, as shown above. Some people like using candle stick charts and that is a matter of preference. Candle charts have a wider body and make it a little easier to see the open, high, low and close, but using tick charts, often we need the screen room to see the complete patterns developing as well as one feature that I use to help visually see the change in direction. Often, this change in direction matches the other components of the method which helps to confirm our entry, LONG or SHORT.

Different Types of Orders

There are three main types of orders used in our style of trading. There are “Market Orders”, “Limit Orders” and “Stop Orders”. I use all three of them at different times for different reasons and explain it all in my course and mentoring program.

A market order, in our style of trading is typically used to close positions that are still open. Others may use them to start a position but we don’t often do that. It better serves us to use this order when we have an open position close to our stop loss and decide it is better to close the position and the protective stop at once. Both done with one click of the mouse at the same time.

A “Limit Order”, is an order to buy or sell at the specific price that we specify. See the example below. There is a blue column, the “Bid Size” and red column, the “Ask Size” This is where I place my orders. By clicking inside the blue column, price 1091.50, I am willing to buy at that price only. When contracts become available from the other side, the red column, my order is filled and I will have gone “Long the S&P emini futures market”. The opposite is true for “Selling Short”. This is an example of buying or selling with a “Limit Order”.

The last order type, “Stop Orders”, are usually used to protect a trader from incurring a greater loss than what he has predetermined ahead of time. For me, it is 1 point or less on all trades I put on. ($50 dollars per contract traded or less). That is the maximum loss and is set automatically at the time I click the order to buy. No need to do anything else. You can set predefined limit order targets and they can go up at the same time as your order entry as well. One click of the mouse and the rest of the entire process is complete. You can even stagger your “Limit Order Targets” if you trade more than one contract, say 1 point and 2 points. If the first one gets hit and filled, your stop loss will automatically adjust itself to only protect now the remaining half of your open position. Nothing else needs to be done, but just the one click order entry, period.

This is a very nice feature for those who may lack discipline in placing their stops and targets when and where they should after they enter the market. You can even use the one click feature just explained and use a “Trailing Stop Loss”. This will automatically move your protective Stop Loss up with say a rising market. You can set a trigger point, say its one point. When you reach that one point level you sell half your first position, every tick the market rises from there, your stop will rise by that much, keeping a 4 tick stop position. If the market had moved up 3 points quickly and came back 1 point, you would automatically sell your remaining position at 2 points, locking in your profit. This is because you preprogrammed it to do just that. This again is a great way to capture more profit in a fast moving market all automatically. The only thing that starts the process is just the one click of the mouse. Done. Very Cool. I, most often do it manually, but that is me. I can show you how to set this upin a blink of an eye and teach you to effectively use this feature.

Different Types Of Trading

There are different types of trading. The three most common, “Day Trading”, “Swing Trading” and “Position Trading”. Day Trading is what we do, because we never hold any position over night and make a few trades inside the daily session. Swing Trading, will carry positions over-night and hold those positions for several days. Position Trading, will hold similar trades but for several weeks or months.

Inside of Day Trading, there are several approaches as well. We look at three main tick charts, separated by small, medium and large time frames. Depending on the traders preference, if he or she has one, we can tailor our program to match your current trading style, or mirror what I am using for my trading. In our first meeting together, I will be able to help you discover what is the best time frame for you to start with. Naturally, I will show you how I set up my charts and fully explain the way that I trade. After that, we can go from there.

Scalp Trading

Scalp Trading, is often misunderstood. There is really no set definition that will clearly define it. It may mean one thing to someone and something else to another. That said, what I most often do is Scalp Trade the S&P 500 futures emini market. You can trade other markets like the Russell, the NASDAQ, or the Dow Jones. Each has an emini futures market that is liquid and very trade-able.

When the trading range is very narrow, scalping 2, 3 or 4 ticks, may be all the market safely gives you, without waiting around hours for a good trade setup. This is how I would define Scalp Trading.

With our base daily goal of 2 points or 8 ticks, you only really need say, 1 trade for 1 point and two trades for 3 ticks and that would also cover commissions and you are done for the day.

The setups are the same in the smallest time frame, as compared to the highest time frame, because the market is “Fractal” in nature. That means the same patterns and setups occur in all time frames across the board, showing a trading symmetry that is often seen in nature, below is an example of that.

With my trading approach, we are able to capture what the market is giving us. If the trading range is expanding and large swings are showing up, we can capture those moves for multiple point returns.

Scalp Trading, gives you the ability to save time in your trading, by getting in getting out and getting done with it and on to other things. I don’t trade all day, like many do. This style of trading offers the “Time Freedom” that many covet. Having the Trading Discipline to walk away after hitting our Day Trading Goal is key in keeping the struggle to a minimum.

Getting what you need from the market, is like shopping for fresh meat and produce at your local supermarket. If you try to stock up on too much, it will go bad and you will lose it all. I find the same true in trading, getting what you need for today is a better approach and produces trading discipline, controls greed and keeps the traders struggle manageable. It is a lot easier to get 2-4 point in a day verses 8-10 points in a day. When you are not able to reach this high trading goal, it will produce frustration and feelings of failure can creep in, derailing all of your efforts.

Controlling Fear and Greed

Many traders just starting out, soon discover that they have almost what seems like uncontrollable trading emotions. They find it difficult to stay focused and maintain control. Often, traders find themselves trading with their minds to focused on the money. That is a sure-fire way to slow your progress and often ruin it entirely.

Most traders have gone through this, but most don’t know how to break the bonds of these powerful emotions, Fear and Greed while Day Trading. The good news is, I do know and is very much apart of the Sniper Trading approach. These are things that I uncover and address to my students and take this part very seriously. Starting out, many are not even aware of these dangers, but that is my job to prepare you for any unforeseen problems that can come between you and your modest daily trading goal each day.

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Controlling Greed and your Trading Emotions

Wednesday, January 13th, 2010

Today is Tuesday, January 12th and the momentum has slowed the last two days.

Todays Index’s were down across the board, with the NASDAQ getting the worst, followed by the S&P -10 points and the Dow, -30 points. We are very close to the extended March 6th trend line support on these index’s. If that support breaks, it will be the first clue that we may have turned the corner on the rally. But still it remains intact and all is well.

As I had thought, today we saw the first signs of life in the futures market, with volume coming in at over 2 million contracts. Just what I was saying yesterday, that 2 million contracts traded in the emini futures market is considered good volume and we hit it today. It has been a long time, probably longer than a month with this kind of volume.

As day traders, we need volume to push the market around, otherwise it becomes more difficult for traders to make money. It is always easy for them lose money and with low volume, bingo, you are there.

Most traders do not know how to trade in shallow trading ranges and end up getting beat up pretty bad. But if you know how to Scalp Trade this market, taking a little out of the middle, you can survive in any kind of trading environment. That is not easy to do for most people and there will be those that say it is foolish to try. Probably because they were not able to make it work for them. Traders are doing this all across the globe and they are taking it from those who think they can.

Some people only scalp trade and that term can mean different things for different people. To me, taking 2,3 or 4 ticks, will qualify as a scalp. Others will call taking a 2-4 point profit on the S&P emini’s, a scalp. So, the term is used widely. If I can make a profit on these small trades while keeping my losses to an equal amount 1 to 1, I am doing OK, because my percentage is pretty high. You need to have 60% or better with the better being more like 75 and up.

When I trade, I look for both kinds of trades. If the market will give me an extended move, often I position myself to capture it. At times I take half off early which gives me the extra ability to ride the move out. It’s a good way to trade.

In my trading today, I did not do as well as I had wanted, but I had a few bigger trades to cover myself. I came in late in the day and missed some big moves short. Overall I think a came a little short of my daily goal because of commission, but close. I had 10 trades 5 gains 5 losses, but had a few trades for higher point returns. As I said I was off. Lack of concentration and I did not take a break from a training session I had with a student.

My timing and concentration was off, with the first two trades as loses. They were not good entries and it cost me. I could have avoided  some of the lose by closing the trade out early as I normally would do once I start to lose the edge. To me and my method, the Trading Edge, is clearly defined and when I lose it, I need to get out, often avoiding  my full stop out of 1 S&P point. I start out with a 1 point stop on all trades, but it almost instantly goes to three ticks when I get one tick of movement in my favor usually when I am in scalp mode.

Often times I am able to catch trades for several points as I did last Friday with a 4 and 5 point gain. It does depend on the price action and what the market gives you. If the markets clamed up and its daily trading range shrunk, many traders would suffer, because they only know how to trend trade. When its choppy, they often stay out, but only after they got burned by non directional non moving market. Being able to Snipe or pick off a few trades makes life a lot easier, providing that you can do it. You end up having the ability to pull a few points a day out of the market, no matter what kind of market you have.

I will make a few comments from where I left off yesterday, about needing all three components to become successful as a trader. It does not matter what you trade, these are things everyone in this business needs.

We all need to know how to trade, by following a methodology or system of some kind. Next you need trading discipline, as it is often talked about.  The last thing is, you need to be aware of the forces that are naturally working against you. What forces are you talking about?  Well, for starters, yourself. When trading, there is something called our human nature. That nature says many things about us and our ability to become profitable. It is to often, the unseen things that holds us back from realizing our dreams.                                                                                                                         ————————————————————————————————————————————————-Let me focus on one point and see how far we go. GREED. That is a human emotion that all of us are faced with. We did not learn it, it comes very natural for most of us. I believe, we need to unlearn it or decide ahead of time, by an active decision to not allow this emotion to take root in us. If we can, it will make so many things better not only for our trading endeavors, but in every other area of our lives, good stuff.

The only way we can ever address it, is if we are first aware of it. After that, what are we going to do, to get a handle on it?  This emotion has been one of the leading causes for traders to blow up there accounts.

We need to be content with modest gains when we have them. The opposite of content is discontent and the twin brother of discontent is greed.

Unless you are content with your piece of the market, you will continue to strive for more. In trying to get more, you will lose what you have. Take control of your trading and your emotions. Trade with a purpose and a goal.

Will Dow Jones Industrial support hold?

Monday, November 2nd, 2009

This post is for Fridays session, October 30th.

The market sold off like fiercely on Friday and took the Dow down about 250 points. The S&P was off about 30 points. I did think that a re-test of the Wednesday and Thursdays low would come, but not so fast. I thought we had at least one more day to top out for the counter trend rally. There was news that came out on Friday, not really sure what it was to tell you the truth, but I could only imagine that it wasn’t good and the market reacted to it. It is to be expected.

Let me tell you, that in the month of September and October, the general public has become bullish. The last two months has only produced paltry gains when compared to the gains of the previous six months. That is where all of the money has been made. The general public is always late to the party and I don’t imagine that this time is going to be any different.

Mondays session is going to tell all, at least for now. What I mean is as I was telling you last week that the Dow has been outperforming the S&P and that was a problem. Well, it is not only the S&P that it is outperforming but the other index’s, but in a bigger way.

Based on my experience and I did not see this or hear this from anywhere, but years of seeing price action at work, the institutions are lightening up their riskier positions and reallocating equity assets in the high quality Dow Stocks. I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago, if I remember correctly. That is pretty typical at market tops

The Nasdaq Index is at a double bottom from its most recent pivot point low, something that the S&P is thinking about doing, to follow suit. The Russel 2000 Index has already overwhelmingly broke its most recent pivot low, by a wide margin. The Dow on the other hand has not broken down yet at all, but is sitting right on a major trend line support.

So, the Dow is the strongest, next comes the S&P 500, then the Nasdaq and lastly the Russel 2000. If the Dow holds and moves higher, the other indexes will only be making a counter trend rally, but will still remain in a down-trend, stopping at overhead resistance. Once the Dow does break down, all of the other Indexes will only go down that much farther and faster. There is a lot of room for the market to move back to the middle of its range of the last 8 months.

The last thing I will say about all of this tonight is, “Earnings”. I don’t follow this much either, but just the big picture. The projected earning that Standard & Poors are putting out for the S&P 500 for next year are a bit of a fairy tale. They have been constantly wrong and now they are painting a wonderful rebound of large proportion in earnings. Anything is possible, but I doubt it. I had heard, according to Bloomburg, that the S&P has had declining earnings for 9 straight quarters and only this last quarter have they been able to increase earnings. Those increases are from very depressed levels, not that hard. The increase in earnings in my estimation is coming from cost cutting in various forms. You can only cut cost so much and for so long, before you can not cut anymore. Where are the increases in sales going to come from. No one is spending and no one is lending and money??? INTERESTING.

That is why, the market is going to adjust itself to reflect where it is going to be in 6-9 months from now, probable lower. Just now the S&P is turning their earnings, like this month. If you invest in these companies now, you are going to pay way to much. But that is what the public does. You needed to be invested at least 6 months ago to be able to enjoy some of this rally, not two months ago, like I talked about at the top of todays post.

We need to see what the Dow is going to do in Mondays session. If it to breaks support, then all of the indexes will have downside momentum working for it. But if it can hold, there is now room for it to clear 10,300, a complete 50 retracement from it’s all time high. The S&P numbers for the same retracement are 1120. We got close.

The sentiment numbers backed off just a little last week. It is sitting at 48% Bulls. A reading of 55% is considered bearish. We only got as high as 51. One last push to the numbers above could push the reading to 55%, the big word in there is COULD.

Friday’s session was incredible. So many great clear signals all day long. I only took one trade and it was split up, what I call a “T-2″.   The first half for +1 point and the second part for 3 1/2 points. I was in the market for less than 1 minute on the first part and 4 more minutes for the second part. I really only had my screen open for 15 minutes, start to finish. There will be plenty of other trading days to capture higher point returns. But my daily goal was meet, no struggle, no fuss, no mess. Just the way I like it.

Until tomorrow

 

Shocking Link in todays post, be warned

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

Today is Tuesday October 27th and things slowed down a little today after yesterdays wild ride.

The S&P cash came into the support area I mentioned in my posting yesterday, a short comment but this is what I wrote.

 From yesterdays blog: “Currently the cash S&P support is about 7 points lower from its current level.”

Like I said, it was a short comment identifying the next major area of support as I saw it. Yesterdays cash S&P 500 close was 1066.94 and the support that I saw did in fact come in exactly at that area today, with the index dropping to 1060.82 after 35 minutes of trading. It then moved up off that area by 12 S&P points only to drop all the way back down to the exact same support area I mentioned yesterday, for yet again a second time. At 10:35 the index was back at support, 1060.62, this time, for 10 minutes until it moved out 8 points up off the same support area.

It is important to note something about todays market. We had the Dow with a gain today of about 14 points and the S&P with a loss of around 3 1/2 points. This is not a huge disparity, but it is worth noting. The Dow has not pulled back far enough to establish its natural rhythm for this pull back, while the S&P has. If the Dow had pulled back along with the S&P, I would feel better about this support level holding, but to often you see the Dow come back at a latter time and finish its move, only to then force a break of support for the S&P.

So, what I am trying to say is, I am a little suspect of this support holding, on the S&P. I would like to see it hold and have the index make its final push up to the 1120 area like I have been calling for the last 6 months. I believe once that level is hit, the players will not have a reason to hold on any longer and really start selling, but that is my take on it. It does not have to be yours.

Let me give you a web site to take a look at. You may want to share it with your friends. I find it very interesting in that a picture is worth a thousand words. Their is not a lot of words but a lot of numbers, BIG ONES. The average person, I believe will be shocked and even the not so average. I still get chills to my spin when I look at this.

Before I say where this site is, I have been following these numbers for literally decades, no kidding. Just like I thought back then, I think the same now. It won’t last forever without a massive shift taking place.

This is a big reason for the continued problems which lie ahead. You can not spend more than you make and expect things not be effected. All of these numbers are backed up and if you put your mouse over the box, it will give you the source. Take a look at the bail out numbers, WOW.

Last warning to all with a weak stomach, don’t go to this site….  The bottom line is what everyone always talks about. If you see the bottom line and especially the bottom right hand corner, cover your eyes. Alright already, give me the site, your killing me.” I know, sorry but, disclosure and all for the faint hearted.

http://usdebtclock.org/       There it is !

I should have my website update pretty soon, look for new content and new lower prices for my course. The time to make your money is now.  If you have trading resources, get yourself ready. There is no better time to go forward with fulfilling your trading dreams. The content in my program I believe will help you get there. Look for the updates in a week or so. Those interested now and want more information, E-Mail me at vinnie@sniperdaytrading.com 

Vince