Today Sunday afternoon June 13th and this post is for Fridays market.

The market put in a nice day absorbing the previous days gains and that was good to see. The NASDAQ did the best at +1.12 % with the Dow and S&P coming up behind that. Everything is set for another big day. The NASDAQ market outperformed because it was lagging behind the other two, so now all three of the main index’s are about equal. Currently, the S&P futures are up about 6 points and it would appear in a position to try and take out the 1106 I had talked about for the last two weeks. A break of that will likely send us up substantially, S&P futures , 1122 to 1142 and or greater, as Fridays close was 1085.

Looking at  earlier triggers, I mentioned a break of 1073 will get this market moving up and so far we have had that. That move helped the NASDAQ market just get caught up and in line with the other index’s and still feel that the Dow and NASDAQ market will need to break up from Mondays open. From all indications, we will do that as the NASDAQ futures are up +9.50 point currently 5 pm West Coast Sunday. A lot can change from now until the tomorrows open, but a strong break from the open and holding onto those gains into the later part of the session will be viewed as very bullish and we will be likely on our way to the numbers I mentioned above. It is just to bad that we did not get under the bullish sentiment readings I was looking for. Close, but no cigar, Bullishness at 38%. I was looking for 35% or less to confirm a sustained move.

This breakout if it comes tomorrow, does not mean we won’t see a rally, it just means to me that it may not have full power and longevity behind it. Possibly, just enough to get to the 1122 to 1142 area, which is still a lot. Counting that in Dow Jones points, that would be 570 points if we get to the 1142 number and if you took it from my original long numbers of S&P futures 1073, that is 690 Dow Jones Industrial points if and when we see it.

I leave a small window open that we reverse this pre-market strength and trade off these numbers for a couple of days, but maintaining the trading range to help the sentiment get to its desired overly pessimistic position so that a real sentiment signal could be generated, one that will have bullish legs to it.

If I had it my way, I would elect for the later set-up and trade down for two days. The sentiment polls are taken weekly on the close of Tuesdays session and this again will give it a chance to trade powerfully to the upside if we see those numbers. The service is put out by a company called “Investors Intelligence” and I am able to get free delayed reading from “Market Harmonic’s”. They poll all the major news letter writers with there take on market direction and we look at those number and trade in the opposite direction of there calls. Actually, this is just a tool to give you overall direction and does not really help with the day trading decisions during the day that we face.

Above is an equity chart of Fridays session. I had two real large days early in the week and just traded small and for only about an hour on Friday. Being conservative at times is something every trader needs to gauge. I just know that traders suffer there largest and worst draw downs when they experience there largest gains. So, that is why I often trade smaller inside of a session as the day goes on and do the same inside a strong week.

It is easy to forget that you need to stay humble and never become arrogant or cocky, saying that this is easy and let your guard down in the process. This is my way of keeping my guard up and taking it one step at a time. Once you make the money from trading, that is your money. It is not the markets. It is never considered free money. You worked for it, by the many hours you put into your method or system. You need to guard it and trade accordingly to your plan. If you have a have light hearted approach to it, you will give it back and then some, trying then only to make yourself feel better by saying, “I am only down this much ( ? ) because the other was profits lost. Don’t think that way. In fact it is really better not to think about the money, but just be sure you are trading properly. Then it will not become an issue.

That is what we should do, but that is not what we do most often. We trade for profit and you need to consider and have safeguards against wildly re-entering in an area we feel is a turning point. Do not buck the trend unless you have very compelling evidence and know what you are doing. Never insist your will on the markets. That right there could save you thousands of dollars. If the trade is not “easy and obvious” as I like to say, stay away. Only trade what you know and when you have the “trading edge” and you will be far, far ahead.

I was going to talk about goals and goal setting as it pertains to day trading and or any kind of trading, but I got off on a tangent. Most often, I just start typing, and what ever comes to mind as I proceed down the page is what comes out. I hope some of it helped.

Good Trading and be back tomorrow with more.