Posts Tagged ‘Price rejection’

Price Rejection in S&P E-Mini

Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

Today is January 18th 2012 and will be looking for “price rejection in S&P E-Mini in tomorrow’s action. It’s important to remain open minded still looking both ways during intra-day trading, but we could start to see cracks showing up.

Monday was a Holiday and so put us back one day into Wednesday being some form of a top in this market for the time being. This is only my opinion and I could be wrong, but Friday I posted that Wednesday would be the likely day we would see a top for the time being in this market.

We had one thing that did not happen, but many things that did take place in the price action leading up to this resistance area. Back in mid November I wrote on my chart the number 1308 and talked about that a few times since then. I can see in this evenings night session that we hit 1307.50 and pulled back down to 1302 where we ended in today’s session. The 1308 is very likely the intra day high for a 20% move in the index’s since the early October low’s of which I was very Bullish.

I won’t get to caught up in calling this market, but do think we will see lower prices coming going forward.

I have been a little preoccupied the last couple of days as it relates to my own trading and had two days of back to back losses. They were small losses of just a few S&P points, but felt no need to push it. Today, I did try and double up on size to make up for yesterday, which is not really a good idea, and the reason I cut today off short since I did not start off well. I have not had back to back losses in as far back as I can remember, but it can happen and that is part of trading. I did not want ego to get in the way and try and push it through to recapture a positive day when I was just not feeling up to it.

I have been starting the sessions to late, close to the N.Y. lunch and getting caught in the chop, both days. The early session had very good moves but slowed up as I came on. Usually that does not matter, but I just did not have it, especially starting off with losses.

The first trade of the day is actually very important and I am rushing into it to quickly, without doing proper analysis, again, all my own fault.

I will post my trades for the last two session below and wrap it up. I wish you all the best.

Today’s trades;

Tuesday’s Trades;

Price Rejection off of 1193, second attempt on Election day?

Monday, November 1st, 2010

Today is Monday, November 1st and the market made a nice attempt at the 1193 area, hitting 1092.75 before price rejection kicked in.

Yesterday, I wrote that I felt we would soon break and close above 1193. Well, today we hit 1192.75, one tick shy before we started to fall back. Today we had another large gap opening and today was no exception on getting the gap filled as the opening gap was again filled a little later in the session. Amazing. The charts are still in tact and we will likely make another attempt at the 1193 area tomorrow. Will we break and hold, we will have to see, but I still do think their is a good chance.

Tomorrow, their are two events that will have a big impact on the days and weeks to come. The first one is a Federal Reserve meeting which will be discussing how the Federal Reserve will handle “Quantitative Easing” going forward.  A fancy term for how the gov will work the system to help things keep rolling along, or break it. The outcome has yet to be determined, but what they have done up to this point has not helped a whole lot, but likely just keep things afloat.

The Fed is the buyer of last resort as far as Government Bonds are concerned. If no one is there to bid at the current low interest rate, the Fed will come in and buy up those bonds. Question? Where is the Fed getting the money from?  Well, the only answer is, create it, out of thin air. How this helps, is that it keeps interests rates artificially low. That keeps the Governments costs down when paying out on those Bonds. Decades ago, I was following this national debt issue and I knew that this day would come, when the demand for government bonds fades, they themselves will hold up the demand by buying these I.O.U’s

It has been said that their has been 1.7 trillion dollars injected so far this last year and tomorrow they will be talking about allocating another 500 billion to 1 trillion more. Those are scary numbers. It will help in the short run if a large number is settled upon, but this is not good news overall long-term. So, look for what comes out of the Fed. I believe they are meeting tomorrow but don’t know when any information will be released?

The next event is the Election. That should be a barn burner, meaning, it is sure to stir things up.  A possible shift in political power is always a big deal, so look for the markets to get heated up as far as volatility.

Lines in the sand to remember.  The S&P should stay above the 1167-1170 area on a closing basis. The Dow should stay above 11,020 before a possible break down of this move could come into play. It is always important to know where things will change no matter how sure you think a move will come. If you don’t map out the possible reverse of what you think, you will not see the reverse of what you think. You will only see the market through your one sided view and that can be devastating. Don’t do that. Look at both sides just in case you are wrong. This goes for your short term trades in the Emini’s as well. You don’t have to reverse your position if you think you are wrong, but knowing exactly where you will get out if wrong is an absolute must.

The market is extended and a sell off is surely on the ticket for many, but the market needs to show itself first before that can be confirmed, until then, the trend is still up.

In today’s trading, I just closed out my extended week-end hold, just a little after today’s open, as the market was moving closer to that 1193 area. With the gap again today, I had to leave open and accept that we may just move up to the resistance area and then work on filling the gap. That is exactly what it did and I did play just right, selling into early strength along the way. A chart showing the closing positions from today below. Good Trading, Vince

The Trading Range is Set, Hold On

Wednesday, June 9th, 2010

Today is Wednesday, June 9th and the market is hoovering in a neutral stand, waiting upon its next move.

The general stock market moved higher only to be met with “Price Rejection”. That would be its inability to overcome overhead supply. It did make a run at it, of which I saw it coming. I also saw the the exact resistance area and started to lighten up as I came closer to my overall target area in today’s trading. I was looking at S&P 1075 as a destination point for the last rally. Once hit, the high was reached for the day and down she went for a -20 S&P point reversal,  closing -6 points on the S&P and -40 points on the Dow.

Well, the market held up over the last few days and that is a good thing. I don’t have a lot to say today, only that we will need to stay above the previous lows recently set to keep this rally alive. That low was established during yesterdays intra day bottom.

The market will turn very negative and continue its bearish move to much lower levels if yesterdays low gets taken out.  The downside line in the sand has been drawn. On the reverse side of that, given the fact that the market was able to rally off that very key support area, is saying there is a real good chance we could make it out of this, at least short term.

The sentiment numbers came out today, but I won’t know what they are until Thursday evening. I will update at that time.

To recap, I see big movement on the break of today’s high of 1077.25 and yesterdays low 1041. That gives us 36 S&P points to play with or 360 Dow points. I will be watching both of those numbers for an increase in trade volume and trade velocity.

Yesterday I posted a live video on U-Tube of the days action and is in the video gallery on my website. I will post a snap shot of the days results as well as today’s results below. Two real good days.

My first two trades today were for small losses on small size, then hit a nice small trade short and reversed my position at my original sell stop point, something I don’t usually do, and the market kept going where I added on for larger size, once the trade showed its real intentions.

The two charts are in my middle time frame and are exactly reflect the price action in relation to my smaller tick chart size. It is easier to post more bars and show more of the day this way.

Yesterdays trades, I  just started to take the small trades were I could. I think I took 3 or 4 one point trades until I saw a big move coming and got a little anxious and jumped the gun. You can clearly see based on the my custom trade indicators that I went in way early and was only asking for trouble. I did switch to my T-1 short term model for a tighter entry, but it did not help as the market was just not ready. I wanted to pull the cake out of the oven before it was cooked, not a good idea. As I state in my notes on the screen, I had the right idea but was early and a bit anxious. I hug in there and was not afraid to load up on what I originally saw and milked the trade for  about a 10 point S&P move. I followed it up for another little topper after that, a great day.

I have the trades marked up on both screens as to where the key turning points are and it is just awesome, as the turning points were crystal clear. You just need the courage to trade them and you will and would have been sitting pretty. I would bet in yesterdays market if I tried to trade the whole day, I could have gotten at least half of the 75-80 points the day showed in available points. That would be 35-40 points of profit in one days session.

It would take a lot out of me to keep up the concentration one would need to do that, but I can see it is possible. For every point in the S&P emini futures it represents $50 dollars. If you trade 3 contracts that is $150 dollars per point x that by 35-40 points and that is a little less than $ 6k in a single day only trading small size. I totally believe in a session like yesterday, that it could have done that. I just don’t want to work that hard, as it is possible I could loose concentration and make mistakes. It is safer to trade for a modest sum and move on.

Usually, I only trade for 2-4 points with an occasional windfall day, like yesterday. Today was somewhere in between, but would call it above average for sure. As I mentioned earlier, we can always make mistakes, not trade our plan and or method and let emotion take over. You can not expect to do your best if you get anxious. I have a tendency to come in a little early at times and those are the trades that I get stopped out. I and or we, need to remember to let the trade come to us. If you look at yesterdays trade chart below, you will see I totally jumped the gun. The trade indicators are there to help you not get out in front of yourself, to hold you back until you have the momentum on your side.

Entering to early most of the time is an emotional response of “fear of lost opportunity”. I have blogged about that before, but you can see a clear example of it in the chart. I can try and justify it any way I want, I blew it. I am not perfect and know that I can always do better.

Being a good trader is not about being perfect, that will never happen, but if you can keep your mistakes to a minimum and take advantage of the gift trades the market occasionally gives you, you can do well. Consider this motto on occasion as well.

Get in – Get out and – Be done.