Posts Tagged ‘price movement’

Price Action Trading Defined

Monday, March 22nd, 2010

Today is Monday February 22nd and the markets pulled out another day of gains.

We saw a  6 point advance on the S&P, 44 points on the Dow and 22 points on the NASDAQ, pretty good. Overall the last four trading days have been contained and we have a consolidating market at this point. A period of rest is normal and expected after the previous advance of the last few weeks. There is room for the market to pull back inside of today’s low and Fridays high.  A breakout from Fridays highs of 1165 could send us higher yet again while at the same time we could easily trade inside of today range and possibly retest it? This part is unsure, but those are the major points of interest for long and short.

Traders will have opportunities which ever way the market moves, but we will have to read it. Just like reading the newspaper or even reading this blog. You were not born knowing how to read, but with practice and persistence you were able to do better and better and with time you could quickly pick up any piece of literature and just read it, to then see what it is saying. From that information, you are able to take action on your understanding of what you just read. That understanding can lead you to many rewards in the your field of interest.

The same is true with the trading markets, we need to be able to look at a chart and just read it as in the above example. By doing so, you are not dependent on indicators or any other outside influence. The markets have a rhythm to themselves and it is best to try and pick up on that trading rhythm and get in sync with it. Trade with the path of least of resistance and you will maximize your returns.

The trading markets advance and then they rest, advance and rest. This cycle is repeated over and over and is the basis for us to read the market. All of this is called “Reading the Price Action”. That is what I call it anyway. Other traders may call it something else, I don’t know, but this is how I see it and trade it. Let me give it to one more time, what exactly is price action.

Price action day trading happens every day the markets are open. This is the study of price movement or price bars in any time frame and that alone, no indicators or anything else. Most traders use indicators to help them see what the charts are saying, but a pure play is in reading the chart alone in this manner.” That is my definition.

I believe traders are best served to learn how to read the market in this manner. I know I have said this before, but trading indicators only reflect what the price is saying. That is really important to understand and should be the basis for us to learn to trade in this way.

I can go pretty deep in this area and break down all of the points that make up the process in learning how to read the market this way, but that is reserved for my trading subscribers. I don’t often talk a lot about how I do what I do, but try and show what I can here and there for traders to see and understand that trading for a living can be mastered.

I talk a lot about trading psychology because that is an area that gets overlooked by many traders and many times is the determining factor for them becoming profitable.

Learning how to read a price chart and trade off of it successfully with nothing else on it, with a very low risk per trade is something that is not going to be picked up overnight. You will not read about it in books and you rarely see it used and talked about. It is the same if you tried to pick up a foreign language and master it in a couple of months. You may learn some of the words and phrases and get some of its structure down but it is going to take time. Are you willing to stay the course and learn this language? It takes focused energy and commitment, but you need to keep your life balanced at the same time.

The traders that want to achieve this skill are the ones you will not give up. The key is, do not put the things that are important to you at risk while pursuing your goals. We always need to maintain control when we are pursuing any dream. If not, the cost can become excessive and all we hope to achieve has gone in the wrong direction. Don’t let your passions blind you from maintaining balance and patience in your life. Again, if not, you only push off that dream farther into the distance.

Getting back on point, reading the market is where traders need to go. Price action is the study of price and its movement. Become an expert in this study of price movement and the emotions that are tied to it by the majority of those who trade it and you will always be moving in the right direction of your goals and dreams, because with that knowledge you can position yourself to take what you want from the markets almost at will. That is not meant to seem like a cocky statement but one of confidence and expectancy, all the while staying humble and balance.

Today’s trading I started later than I am used to, but picked up the low side of my daily goal on a little smaller size. The smaller size is because I started late. I will often do that if I trade late in the day because I do not have time left to come back if I have draw downs. My results below.

Trade On, and be safe !

Technical Analysis: Video Trading Lesson Today

Thursday, June 4th, 2009

Today is Wednesday, June 3rd and we are starting to get a pull back in the markets.

Today the markets made a nice late rally to recover from a steeper sell off it was seeing earlier in the day. The Dow was only off around 65 points, not too bad. With a close up off the lows, it sets the tone for an early rally tomorrow, but we may not be done to the downside. I

have no predictions on where prices are going at this point. I will tell you that we did hit an upside objective with the 940 S&P number being hit and completed that I had called. We are still in an uptrend, there has not been any damage to the chart and until then, you have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.

There is some heavy resistance at the 940-950 area so that is going to be a very critical area to watch. I previously had in my mind that we would see some kind of a pull back and a lot of people will think this is more of a correction than it really is and start shorting the market. That could be a mistake. A pull back would be normal from here, but everything about this market right now is not normal.

I do  think overall we will see higher prices over the summer, that I am pretty sure about, but be careful, I don’t think it is going to last. By this September and October, we are going to have problems holding on to any meaningful gains going into the end of the year. I am a bear long term and do think the lows on the S&P and Dow are going to get taken out in a very big way. For now enjoy the mini Bull and get some of that 401K money back.

I am a bit cynical about how things are run around the good old USA. I believe the powers that be know exactly what is going on and when any changes are taking place. If you ask yourself, did “THEY” know that the market was going to tank last year?  Here, let me answer that one for you, YES.  Did they know that it was going to turn and when?  I can’t help myself, let me answer that one too, YES.

Our leader came out on the airwaves three days before the bottom on the S&P at (interesting number, I did not pick it) 666. That would make him a pretty good market timer if you ask me. Just three days earlier everyone thought the very worst. After that third day people who took his advice have done really well. I don’t know if anyone knows that, but it’s true.

What if people put a lot of new money in the market and it did not work out? Mr. O would not be looking too good right now and he could not have that.  The reason he could come out and make a stock market call like he did was because, well, you make your own conclusions. We hear that things are getting better and I am all for that, Ya-Ya.  I always say to keep an open mind and think for yourself. This will be one of those times, even as I give my opinion. That is all it is, my opinion.

In today’s trading, I did well, had taken a few small trades early, some up and some down, but saw a very nice high probability trade to capture a big move to the downside. I put it on, took not one tick of heat and picked up 6 & 1/4 points on that trade. I held it for a while which was painful in and of itself. I am not usually in a trade for as long as I was, but I played it for the extended move out of a higher time frame and that is what it gave me. I got in just as the market told me and got out just as it said “get out”. I did give it a few extra ticks of room, just in case it was a fake out. I have a chart of it below.  All in all, 3 times my daily goal. A lot of early trades were split trades with different exits.

Trading Lesson: Below is a short video of how you can use support and resistance by plotting  parallel channels. I cover how you can use them in your trading to give you some possible insight on where prices can go before they get there. It is not a science but it is something that gets played out everyday. Take the insight that I give you here today and check it out on the markets. It may take some time to be able to spot these, but when up and down trends play out, you should be able to apply some of these ideas to give you an edge.

Technical analysis is the study of price movement through patterns, support and resistance, and general price fluctuations. You can draw conclusions as prices move from one area of support to another area of resistance and use that information to trade accordingly. Even if you spot these patterns, you still have to know how to play it, with low risk entries in mind.  Check back for more insight and ideas.   Anyone interested in learning more please feel free to email me. I will do my best to answer your questions.

http://www.screencast.com/t/LuSFBV59R Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/3bLxmtzYZI One of today’s trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/HMBxbNpJ7 Trading lesson, 5 minute video

Where does the market go from here

Sunday, May 24th, 2009

This is for Friday’s post May 22nd, which I did not write.

In Friday’s trading, I did not have a very good connection, I was traveling and not in my home office and my data was freezing because of that, so I elected to just make a few calls on direction but not trade at that time. Later in the session, I was able to link into a faster data connection and took a few trades to a get double daily goal.

I was trading small, but picked up my points with no problems. I remember taking 9 trades and only had one very small loss of  1/2 point. I had some split trades in there, half the order comes off first and the other half later (T-2) , usually at a better gain.

The market sold off on Friday during the last 15 minutes of the day, another close at the lows of the day after trading higher through out the session. That again should have an impact on Tuesday’s opening market.

Trading Lesson:    Generally, when the market sells off early in the session while it is in an uptrend on the daily, you can often see the market come back and close at the highs of the day. The same is true when we are technically in a down market. You will see the market rally early in the session, only to close at its low of the day. We have been seeing exactly that the last three trading sessions. It happens all the time, so it’s one of those things to keep in mind. If you don’t know if we are in an no trend or downtrend, you have work to do.

Where do we go from here?  Since last week, we had broken the wedge that was forming to the upside, that I had been talking about for weeks, but we do not yet have a lower low from our most recent pivot point. Some of my daily indicators are pointing down and some have yet to turn down. From the price action that has recently taken place over the last three trading sessions, I had become bearish on the daily, but with caution.

On Wednesday I stated in my blog, the short term top was in and lower prices were coming off of the price rejection I saw that day and hitting the adjusted outside purple line that I had talked about for a month. All of that has happened and now we will have to see if the last pivot low is going to hold. There are things happening that say it can hold and at the same time, there are things that say it will drop down and break the low, which will bring in more selling. I don’t know which one it will be yet. Pure price action says there is no violation yet, while momentum says it should break. I am going to have to let the market decide and you should too at this point.

We have come off 50 S&P points from the top at 930 to Thursdays low of 879. A month ago I had said 940 or so would be the top of this little run and was off about 10 points. I just needed to re-adjust my lines and last Wednesday I saw that.

Anyway, let’s just let the market decide. If it does break the low, we could see a move down to 847 to 850 on the S&P. It’s not too steep but it would naturally find initial support there at a parallel channel taken from the most recent tops. That lower end of the channel comes in at around the level I just mentioned. Again, we will have to see what happens first. It would appear that is what is going to happen, but if price action changes to reflect something different, I will look to re-asses. With the Gov looking to take control of GM, that could tip the scales south for now.

The financial networks always try and come up with a reason why the market did this or that, but fail to realize that much of the price action would happen that way regardless of the news – just a personal observation.

Last week I was talking about “Price Action”. I wanted to clarify one thing, the difference between price action and price patterns. I believe I was pointing out a “Head & Shoulders” formation that developed in a 5 minute cash chart of the S&P from Wednesday’s sell off. Anyway, there is a difference between the two and I wanted to make that clear.

Price Action is a collection of price movements based mostly on support and resistance. Prices are pushed above and below their mid point.  While price pattern is the collection of price movements that cluster to form identifiable patterns. When those patterns are broken, you can draw a conclusion that will yield a highly predictable outcome. Price action is what takes you to the point where you can see the formations coming together. It is almost like, which came first, the chicken or the egg?

In this case, price action comes first, then comes price patterns from the price action. I hope that helps clear up any questions you may have had about that. If you were not even aware of the difference, you now have it explained.

http://www.screencast.com/t/lcQ9oHq5q Friday’s equity chart