Posts Tagged ‘pivot points’

What Is Sniper Day Trading?

Tuesday, November 9th, 2010

Today is Monday November 8th, 2010 and we saw a slow narrow range today as the S&P and Dow backed off their most recent new high ground with the Dow off -37 and the S&P -2 for the day.

We saw a slow narrow range today as the market gaped lower to start things off. We did see another gap filled today, but it took most of the session to get it done. As you can see over the last few weeks, most all the gaps have been filled within the same day or by the open of the next session.

We do have a large gap that is still open from a previous session and would be a good idea to remember where it is and when it happened. It happened 3 sessions ago at 1198 and as mentioned is still open.

I would be watching 1215 for Tuesdays session as an important area of interest. If that area gives way, it is possible the market will work its way back down to fill that gap. Currently in the night session the market is off several points and sitting just above that number, by about one point, so we shall see what happens in the morning.

One interesting thing to note is the Dow never came close to filling its opening gap even though the S&P did. That too is important to know and remember going forward.

In yesterdays blog, I was talking about how important it is to understand how a certain elements work together to give a trader the statistical trading edge. The elements are “time, space and energy”. Space would amount to the movement of price, since its travels are done in an element of space. Understanding all of these elements are important. Some do have a higher value than others, but all are essential.

The element of time is the first one, which traders are required to wait. That waiting is a component of time and essential for the price to work its way into position for its next move. Without time, space (price movement) would not exist and so is needed. It is in passing of time that allows traders to establish there positions and creates price movement, the second element. There is a right time and a wrong time to enter a position. You want to learn when to enter at the “tipping point”. An exact point of time that prices move in your favor with little draw down. That is not always easy to do but it is possible. Enter to soon and you incur additional risk and potential for loss. Enter to late, when the move is now seen by all and you risk being the answer to someones exit, by taking the other side along with everyone else. It can be summed up in two words, “Trade Timing”.

The second element is space, where prices move. Price moves through definable boundaries created by its participants. Those boundaries take place over time and are often well established. If you can spot the trade boundaries and allow time to work for you, you will begin to possess the trading advantage. So, you are allowing time to pass so that price can establish trade boundaries that are definable to you, the trader. So far we have the first two elements working together to create and give you that trading advantage, time and space.

That brings us to the last element, trade energy. This element is not often thought of, but is key in working with the first two. The energy is essential to the move in that, it is what drives the price higher and or lower. That happens at a specific time as discussed, but the energy is what moves the price through space, the second element. All three are working together. As time passes, energy is often building, depending on the definable boundaries discussed above. The way that happens is again first by the passing of time as traders establish positions above and below boundaries that they feel is important to them. When you can identify which area’s are of greatest importance to the largest group of traders, you will often be able spot “stored energy”. It is just sitting there. Here again, you will need the passing of time to allow that stored energy to build.

Generally the bulk of traders and investors think alike. Thinking as they do to better spot where there stops and being prepared to do the opposite can be one way see these area’s. Price establishes itself through space by creating highs and lows. Each high and low says something as pivot points are created. Its understanding this language and the combination of all three elements that creates the trading advantage we seek.

Sniper Day Trading seeks to exploit those three elements to put the statistical trading advantage on my side of aisle. When I can do that, I pick up winning trades. We don’t need a lot as we all know the futures market is highly leverage. The key is better to keep risk low and gains consistent, even if those gains are at times small.

There are key spots on a trade screen that represent small windows of opportunities. If we hit these windows of opportunity right, we keep risk low and have a high degree of success in hitting at least a modest target. We come to learn what price should do at these small windows and when it doesn’t do as it should, getting out does not have to be letting your stop get taken out. Managing the trade is very important, but doing the first part right, this part is much easier as you will be looking to take your profits and not running for cover.

All of this takes time and an understanding of how price action works in conjunction with the elements discussed. Trade indicators are only a reflection of the three trade elements discussed above. They can help you see what is on the screen already, but are not able to identify, because of lack of knowledge and screen time. This is something that can and needs to be learned, so don’t be down or hard on yourself if you are not make the progress you hoped for. More tomorrow……. Today’s trades below.

Fear & Day Trading – continued

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

Today is Tuesday, January 19th and the market moved right on time, S&P up 14 points and Dow up 114.

We were on that critical support and other traders knew that too, that is why I feel they stepped up to the plate and bid the market up. When you have trend days, where direction is mostly one way, price action is and looks different.

You won’t have that back and forth price moves that are usually present, but shallow pull backs with continuation moves in the direction of the trend.

If you came late to the party, after the first hour, there were really only 3 moves of any significance for the rest of the day and they were all up, but not anything large, maybe a couple of points each. There was a dead spot today from 10:00 am to 12:30 pm West Coast, that probably killed a lot of traders. There was no movement, even after the New York lunch, there was absolutely nothing. I had not seen it that slow during that time, as far as price range is concerned, in a long time.

I quite trading around 12:00 and hour before the close and did not hit my trading goal for the day. It is really alright, I was not worried about that part, I can make it up later this week, but I was getting a little frustrated. My entries were not very good today and ended the day flat with 4 small gains, 4 small loses, and 3 break even. The commission cost for the transactions put me under just a little. I did had my chances but it was one of those days. I did see the market move out for one more push at the end of the day, but I had stopped.

I did not want any more of my emotions to work negatively against me, so I just stopped. I was really OK with that. This is a little lesson for me. Can I stop trading if I don’t like the price action. The answer is ”Yes”. When the conditions are more favorable for me, I can step it up. So, for the things just mentioned I still felt good over all. Staying in control is so much apart of being successful, it can be the breaking point for many traders. Frustration sets in and then you begin to make reckless trades, “don’t do that”.

OK, back to where I left off yesterday; I was laying out fears that traders often experience and commenting.

Fear;  Afraid of being wrong. This is a common one and I will expose it. When you trade, non of us know if the trade is going to work out or not. At that point we are all on a level playing ground. The difference is, one trader knows what he is looking for and when he see’s it, feels comfortable enough to put the trade on. He has a high degree of confidence, only because he has seen it work out before when the conditions were the same. On the other hand, the trader that does not have screen time and does not know what he is looking for, is like a guy poking around in the dark looking for the light switch. If you are that guy, then it is normal and understandable that you will experience fear and or be afraid as you put a trade on. You may not have the screen time you really need to go forward, but you decide to push the envelope and start trading anyway. The result is, you place trades out of fear and uncertainty. Your results are going to suffer and eventually, the market will drain your funds. Traders tend to increase their mistakes and exhibit poor judgment when faced with this emotion running through them. Dont’ let that be you. Get educated, trade your plan and stick with in. Stay in control. If you feel you are starting to lose it, STOP. There is always tomorrow.

Fear; Fear of failure before friends. This is something I learned a long time ago. If you are telling your friends and people you know about your trading venture, it is a big mistake. Let me say that again. I feel if you talk much about your trading to others, it is only going to hurt you form getting to the very place you want to go. There are many reasons for this. One is, we tend to build ourselves up greater than we should and when we don’t live up to what we have spoken, we feel like a failure and this increases pressure. If you are under increased pressure, your trading is going to suffer. When your friends ask you how is it going, you will feel compelled to either tell the truth or lie. If you tell the truth, you make yourself out to look foolish, since all they heard about for months was how you were going to make it big. If you tell a lie and make yourself look better than it actually is, that will only add to many more problems down the road and stretching the truth like this, is not good for anyone. So, either way, you loose. Don’t put yourself under more pressure than you have to. If people know what you are doing, you can tell them, but keep it real simple, don’t get into details and play it all down. You will be better off in the long run to meet your real goal, steady profitability.

Fear; Afraid of never making it as a day trader. If you are not ready to compete in the ring, don’t enter yet. If you are afraid of not making it, it may just be a nice early warning signal for you to do more study on price action.  How and why prices move up and down, support and resistance, pivot points, price patterns, etc. To often, traders look for the “Holy Grail”, whether it is an indicator or automated system or what have ya. Traders should learn the things above and know them like the back of their hand. The market is not going to hand everyone victory. We need to stay humble in our trading and keep learning. It is not easy, but for those dedicated and have the right direction it is possible.

I offer such direction for those seeking. Email me, with your questions and get the trading edge.

vinnie@sniperdaytrading.com

http://www.screencast.com/t/NjdiMTk3

S&P Day Trading: Part Five

Monday, June 29th, 2009

This is Monday, June 29th and the markets have moved back to the middle of their most recent range.

The market has performed  in a very predictable pattern at this point. The natural rhythm of the market would say that we back off to the downside one more time, but this time the thing to watch is going to be if we can hold above or somewhere in the middle of this move of the last week. That would put pivot points above and pivot points below, setting itself up for a pretty big move outside of those pivots. Nothing here would surprise me and we can not rule out a move below last weeks pivot low. Just have to wait and see what kind price action we get.

The move to the high today is what I called for last week, that was right into the mid Fibonacci range on the dailyies. Day traders need to wait for the setups and go from there.

Last week I talked a lot about what does it take to become and stay profitable as a day trader. Discussed the things to avoid and controlling your mind-set. The real battle is between your ears. You have the ability to come out on top, which will take work and dedication to the whole process. You also have the ability to let the market pressures get you down and abandon your plan. Yes, you need a real plan on paper. One that clearly defines what constitutes a buy and sell signal. A stop must always be in place. If you trade without one, you will eventually be sorry. The markets move fast and you will inevitably take a much bigger loss than you bargained for trading without a stop.

For those trying to get started, I would caution you to have a modest daily goal and modest daily stop for the day. This will resolve in you, that you will not take a huge loss any one day. I have gone over this before but a little overall recap. Ask yourself, are you trading to get rich or make a living? If you are trading for a living, then you need to ask one more question. How much do you want to get paid per week? What do you currently make at your current job or your last job? Was that a fair wage for what you did at the company? Ok, how much time are you planning to trade each day to make your wage?

I really only like to trade for about an hour, sometimes two. Everyone is different, but the longer you stay, the chances are you will do worst. You will not be able to overcome all the mind games the market plays on its participants each day. Maybe in time you can increase you trade time, but concentrate on your trade setups and focus on your timing. When you see a base trade setup, take it. Don’t hesitate, doing so only creates a lack of confidence and indecision. You take the trade only when the price action tells you to, if not, stay out.

For most people 1500 per week would be a good wage. Many in America only average about half of that per week, so if you are able to do better than Most Americans and do it in 1 to 2 hours per day, would you not say, that is a good living for the time you are putting into your work. The answer would have to be yes. You always have the ability to get a raise, but only if your performance warrants it.

So, just getting started, let’s break this down. A weekly salary of 1500 per week is 300 per day. You would need to trade with 2 contracts and pick up 3 points per day and or 15 points per week. When you say 15 points per week, it sounds like a lot, but when you say 3 points per day, it sounds possible. That would be three 1 point trades or one 2 point trade and another 1 point. You can also get it this way, by picking up four 3/4 point trades. If you get out too soon on a big runner, why would you care, if your daily goal is to make a consistent living. If you become greedy, you will likely end up with nothing. Greed and Fear are your enemies.

Let’s focus on “Greed”. This is a natural emotion that traders have to deal with. You need to put this one in its place and control your desire for more. It is a victory knowing that on any one trade that you could get more, but you choose to only trade for the amount left that will give you your goal for the day. This is especially important in the beginning, confidence is critical and you cannot get it if you are not able to put a string of winning days together in a row. If you don’t control this particular emotion early on and get rid of the idea of making thousands per day, you most certainly will not make any dollars per day.

Just because it is possible does not mean it is going to happen, not to say that it will never happen, but not before its time. There is no get rich quick stories that should be floating around in your head while you are getting started. Again if you are able to string these modest targets together each day, it is so imperative that you do not give back 3 days of profits all in one morning or day. You need to preserve your capital and chip away at it.

When a sculptor sets out to create a piece of art, his intention is to create it with one chip at a time, day after day until he has what he was intending to create. The same is true here. Take it step by step and control your emotions for wanting more – it will only hurt you in the long run. There will be plenty of days in the future that the price action will give you a lot more than few points a day, but you should not be looking for what is not there in the beginning. It takes 21 days to create a new habit, start now, with DAY ONE.

Today’s Market Coments; Training idea’s continue tomorrow

Friday, June 26th, 2009

Today is Thursday June 25th and the markets have made a move.

Did not follow the markets today but had a chance to look at the price action after-the-fact. I saw that in the pre-market, futures on the S&P moved up sharply just a few points above yesterday’s high, very typical. That move took out the stops just above that previous high and with no additional buyers, it was straight back down to this morning’s open.

After the open a slight drift lower and a big break out over some real nice pivot points that sent the market straight up from there. There were two more pushes higher, the second good for another massive leg of 12 points.

Well, you don’t get days like that too often, especially in the summer months. I have noticed the volume is way down, not quite by half. That makes it a little harder to trade at times. The volume is coming in early on the session, with traders leaving for the rest of day. They are making their money and going on to do something else.

But today looked a bit different. We have not had any real good swings like I see on the charts today. But remember, no two days are alike. Many traders will attempt to play tomorrow’s action similar to today’s, but will find out that it may or may not work out that way. Often after a big move up or down, you will see a good bit of consolidation, marked by short swings up and down. This is the market’s way of digesting the meal that it just ate.

So be prepared for that just the same as you would be prepared for follow through moves of similar magnitude. Looking at today’s price action, there seems to be a bit more room to the upside of this move to around 930 on the cash market. Have a look at it below in a 10 minute bar chart. You will see a nice little break out just after the open, that pushed it to the top of the range, just before it broke out above the range. In a small time frame chart, this looked about as good as it gets. At 6:39 you have a solid buy at 893.50 which if you rode it up, the move would have kept you in the trade until 7:14 am exiting at 903 for 9 1/2 point gain. Very nice price action day for those trading the trend.

I am going to end my post for now. I have my daughter visiting from out of town but will continue the training where I left off in tomorrow’s posting.

http://www.screencast.com/t/grAuYtKS4jl 10 minute chart of S&P 500 cash

Trading Signals for Apple Computer

Friday, May 15th, 2009

Today is Thursday, May 14th and the markets bounced off some temporary support to close higher for the session.

Well, I think I can see what is happening in the markets right now. It would appear that with the natural flow or rhythm of the markets, that a retest of the recent highs would be in order. If it does not happen and we break today’s lows then we will have to re-evaluate the situation, but the markets should move back up near the recent highs and run into the outside purple line that I have previously drawn in my posts from last weeks daily chart.

That would also put in a very nice pivot point at this suspected short term top. It would appear that a downside temporary break should be in order, which should set up the big upside break over the summer months. This scenario, makes the most sense to me. It gives people a false sense of security as stocks begin to rise and as week after week of increasing stock prices come in, more and more investors begin to inch their way back into the market, slowly at first and heavy at the very top.

That is going to be quite a setup for the unsuspecting public. You will start to see optimistic headlines all over magazines and newspapers. This again will signal the top. But we will be able to look at the inside MOOD of retail traders as shown in the Investors Intelligence Report that comes out weekly.

Stock newsletter writers, are no better than the general public for predicting the future course of the market and this will shed a lot of light at market tops and bottoms as well, because they are invariably wrong most of the time when polled. If you are a regular reader to my blog, you have seen me point this out before. So its back up for bit, then a downside break, only to break back up over this current high until September/ October. This is only an estimation of what looks like normal market flow and should not be considered trading advice.

In today’s trading I took a few stops and had a few gains. Some of the stops I took today could have been avoided but I made up for those quickly with some real nice trades. One of them late in the session for a double position of 10 contracts, sold some at little better than 3 point and the rest at 2 3/4 points. It was a nice gain. I did record it and was going to play it today but I decided to do something different.

This week I said that knowing how to trade the market and catch the flow of movement and emotions that drive stocks or any other trading instrument were all basically the same. I have only previously charted the S&P emini futures. But today I have a 5 minute video of Apple Computer, showing the trading signals my method would have given me over the last two years.

There is some pretty good moves there, so check it out. The indicators that I  use ALL MATCH UP PERFECTLY to the signals that I have on the screen, but only have one indictor up. I can read the charts without the indicators, but they  make it easier to see. Since this is a daily chart, there is plenty of time to make a decision on what order to place and where.

For me, this would seem like an eternity. I am used to making all of those decisions in one day, but there you have it spread out over 2 years. My point to all of this is the moves are all the same and it can be applied to any trading instrument. Price action is determined by a lot of things, like fundamentals, but those fundamentals get priced into the current price right away and reflect what ever that is. The technicals are a compilation of everyone’s opinion of what the fundamentals represent. So if you read the person (traders, investors, fund managers, etc) and how they feel, you can see where they are going to take it. Pressure points, like I said before, these are triggers that release massive amounts of movement. Then there is the herd mentality, the followers, and the trend continues until prices become overpriced or undervalued, but again all built into the current price.  I don’t gamble, but I have watched poker players on TV and it seems that they more closely watch the person to get a read on what is going to happen next and not so much the cards themselves, same thing.

So, the short video of Apple below will show you how you can use patterns, trend-lines, pivot points, support, resistance and other things. The interesting thing is that with the simple indicators that I transpose over the chart, (only one on screen today), you get added confirmation that you are making the right moves when you go long or short. It’s great. I will do more of these in the coming days – Gold, US dollar, Oil, Cattle, they all work.

I should have my equity chart fixed by tomorrow, I am going to upgrade to a new software version and that should fix my problem. Have a good day and until tomorrow.

http://www.screencast.com/t/7KNbRpsVSSp Apple Computer & Google Daily Chart & Trading Signals

Trading Success, Take What the Market is Safely Offering

Friday, May 8th, 2009

Today is Friday, May 8th and the markets as of now, 9 am West Coast time are making a come back from earlier losses.

Today’s market action was interesting. We saw a gap opening up of about 8 points on the S&P, it pushed a little higher, formed a nice top and sold off, good and plenty. It moved back to the middle where it found support and later rallied to near session highs. That is when I stopped watching. I will look later tonight to see how it all finished for the day.

My trading went well, nice and smooth, hitting double daily goal, just at $1,000 with only one losing trade in about 1 hour. I think I put on 9 trades with a couple of split trades in there. That is what I like to see, but it all depends on me. I know that I can always do better and I strive to do that each day. Many of the stops that I take can be avoided and some can not. I don’t worry about the ones I can’t avoid, but only the ones that human error comes into play. I have rules and sometimes I break them, as we all do. When I stay as close to the rules as I can, it usually works out pretty well.

Today, I was short at the top for a split trade, got 1 point early and put myself in a no loss trade. The second half continued to work lower and all was well. I moved my stop down, but got a little distracted and got high ticked out. I was one tick too tight, still made 6 ticks on the trade, but that move kept on going. I had a tentative target of several points on the second half of the trade.

Often, traders can become frustrated when they don’t get the amount that they were looking for and start to abandon their trading plan. Here is where controlling your emotions is vital. You can get frustrated on a winning trade as well as a losing trade and self control needs to be called on. If you have in your mind that your trading goal can and will be met, it is going to happen by taking one trade at a time. If you look at the big picture, it can be overwhelming and that can throw you off. We are only targeting at a minimum, 2-3 points per day. Most often I double that, but I always have in my mind, that if I can get to 2-3 points and the price action is good, I can get to 4-5 points. I never think of hitting 5 points as my goal right away.  It’s always 2-3, and if things still look good, I can continue, often times with smaller contract size. This takes the pressure off of having the thought of giving back your hard earned points.

That is what I did today and I was happy with it. I had some frustration coming in when I got high ticked out.  I knew that the market was going to hit a bigger target, which I pointed out on the screen. I looked for a re-entry point, but there really was nothing that looked good.

The action on the way down was a little strange. Usually you have some resting points, a few small pivot points then a break. I did not see anything like that, so I had to stay out. It ended up dropping a lot more without a bounce and I chose to just wait it all out. After that move ran out of steam,I put on a few small moves on in the CHOP,  it worked out well.

After a large move up or down, you tend to get tradable formations for small moves. Some of those moves went farther and as I always say, that is just fine. I never cry about taking a small move if that is what I planned on ahead of time. If it goes for several points, no  problem. Some times I elect only to take all trades for 3 or 4 ticks no matter what.

I remember one day not long ago, I did that, I had like 40 winning trades in a row. I said that I was going to stop when I get my next loss, it never came.  It was a very large day for me. Other times I take  split trades or what I call a “T-2 setup”. While I am at it, I will explain the three the basic setups that I use.

The first is a “T-1 setup” which is a scalp trade of no less than 1/2 point but usually not more than 1 point to meet the definition. The next is a “T-2 setup”, which is a split trade where after the entry, the first half of the order comes off at around 1 point and the second half comes off where ever I feel that I can safely get the second target without getting too greedy. I have the second target usually preset at 2 points, but I move it to where ever I can get a larger fill. The third is what I call a “T-3 setup” and that is when I see a pyramid situation. I won’t go into what all that is but I think you may be able to figure it out.

If I see different market condition, I am ready for what the market can give me. Like I have said before, you cannot tell the market to give you what you want, you have to be willing to take what it will give you. So being flexible is very important. If you know how to scalp trade for small targets and hit those targets about 75-80% of the time and often a lot higher, then you have a base to build off of. When the conditions are right for RUNNERS, the T-2 is a great way to go to capture more of what the market is offering. When you have those days that you get long extended moves in one direction, the  T-3 can bring you windfall profits.

If you always keep your sights set on just getting your modest daily goal, when the opportunities present themselves for more, you will not have any hangups to hold you back from receiving them.   If the markets ever started to trade in a quit narrow range like it did some time ago, many S&P systems traders would get chopped to pieces. If it stayed like that for a while, many traders would be out of business.

The market is designed to make you fail and it will do everything in its power to make that happen. You need to ask yourself this question: if that is true, then what are you going to do about it?

http://www.screencast.com/t/en4uOjUTvh6          Today’s equity chart

Day two / Sample Training

Tuesday, February 10th, 2009

Today is day two of a small sample training video I have put together.

Take advantage of the training and see how and why I do what I do. It is pretty straight forward and fairly easy to follow. It is only a small sample of what you could learn here. Trading is about support and resistance combined with probabilities and pattern recognition. You need to learn how to read the charts, naked. By that I mean price action alone should be enough in and of itself to make your buy and sell decisions. My method will work in any time frame like I have said previously. It can be applied to daily stock charts as well as commodities, forex currencies and for sure the S&P 500 E-Mini’s. It takes time to be able to understand so many other factors, but having a basic understanding of where price break entries are at, is the first key. Knowing where is your lowest risk point in any trade and knowing exactly where you are going to get out is imperative. I never put a trade on without having a stop in place at the same time. At times I trade without a target, but never without a stop. Having the right timing is what will make or break you. This all goes with knowing how to trade, understanding pivot points, price rejection, chart formations, breakouts, retracements and how to play each of them, will take time, but the rewards can be beyond your dreams for the dedicated.

It was a big day on the street today. The market did not like what the treasury secretary had to say about the financial mess. One thing I heard was, that there was not many specifics, what can you expect, looks like I see a pattern here. You could trade off of that pattern and that is what the street did today and decided to sell, sell and sell some more, minus 4 to 5 % for the market. It took us down to bounce off of the lower end of the range ,(purple support line I have drawn and spoke of before). I might add, if we break down from here, it could be lights out. That line has been hit about 7 or 8 times now. There is going to be a lot of sellers on the other side of that, I can assure you of that. Lets all hope it holds, for everyone sake.  I think sooner or later, it is going to break and we are going to go down several thousand more points on the Dow, but I hope it is not now. It is just a loose opinion that I have and not one that I hold onto tightly. The weekly chart tried to go positive this week, but was meet with what I call price rejection. Trend is still in tack for now, but tomorrow is going to be key, it needs to hold.

Today’s trading was fairly quick, about 20 minutes to reach my daily goal and that was good enough for me. Trades posted below. Have a great day!   Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/TfnwXw0zEsU           Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/nvcf6ZTr                      Todays Trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/i2ZoV6Wk                   Sample  Training day #2