Posts Tagged ‘overhead resistance’

Tight Trading Range & Very Slow

Saturday, March 17th, 2012

This post is for Friday’s session March 17th, 2012 where we saw a very slow moving day with tight trading ranges.

Friday was the last day of expiration in the old index futures contract and Monday everyone who held long term positions will have to have moved it over into the June contracts.

The day’s trading range consisted of a whole 4 S&P points, high to low. That is about the smallest I can remember that did not take in a holiday. If this continues I may look at trading back to my T-1 trade screen which takes in smaller scalp targets and smaller losses.

In that model, one would trade for no less than a 1:1 ratio of gain to loss, but the percentages are higher. Trading for 2-3 ticks and risking 2-3 ticks can be done with a great deal of success. It is not glamorous in just settling for 3 ticks on the S&P emini’s but if that all the market is giving, you take it, get stopped out or don’t trade. It is one of the three. For many who don’t know how to trade in an environment like this, they are sunk. There ability to trade is limited to only one market condition.

With the ability to be able to trade in any market condition, very slow narrow ranges, swinging choppy markets, trending directional, or any thing else the market tends to throw at you, you have something to lean on with a versatile trading method.

The best time of the day to trade is where you have the highest degree of participation and that is after the open for at least the first 90 minutes. Many traders like to wait at least 15 minutes to let the market settle and that is OK too. You will have a lot of news released 30 minutes after the open and that often times will drive the market and give it fuel to keep it going for a while. In that, you will have your greatest opportunities for profit.

I often trade when I am ready on my schedule but I should be up and ready for that opportune time. Not doing so causes me to invest a lot more time into trading which I really don’t want to do.

Writing about it, does give me a moment to reflect and somewhat talk out-loud to myself about it which is the first sign I might want to change.

We will see, in this coming week how things continue as the market is up against some hard resistence yet again. The remedy is “time” and or a decline. We did retest again this week where I thought we would be taking that break, but now again I can see strong resistance overhead and a slowing of momentum seems to be taking place.

All that is in looking at the daily markets and does not really matter as far as daily price opportunities for scalping a few points out the emini’s.

I will end it here for today and post my trading results for Friday. Just three trades 2 positive and one loss for -2 ticks and an OK day considering the lack of movement. I did have to wait it all out a lot longer than I liked, but I did exercise good patients. Hopefully, next week things will pick up and offer a lot more opportunities. I wish you all the best and until next week, “Good Trading”. Vince

Stock Market Hits A Wall

Thursday, December 1st, 2011

Today is Thursday December 1st, 2011 and the Stock Market Hits A Wall as we ran into that overhead resistance I talked about in my last blog post.

A very decisive moment is coming within the first 2 hours of tomorrows session. If we break 1241 on the downside, I think we will see a lot of selling coming in. If we break the 1250 level, we could see a continuation of the recent rally. It would be more normal for the market to pull back for a few days before trying to attempt to break today’s highs and with that we will have to wait and see.

Overhead resistance is when the market has reached a point on the charts where sellers have overtaken the buyers to such a degree that it has to go down. There is no buyers at the asking price and the adjustment downwards quickly comes in to reflect the lack of interest at those levels. Today, I am sure that the protective stops have been place just above today’s high in an attempt to sell the market and profit on the downward move. The protective stops are regular buy orders that will trigger open market orders to buy if the price were to breach today’s highs. Many have placed there orders and will wait for a sell off to profit on the downside. They have positioned themselves for a longer term play that could last 1-3 days. If they are right, a big pay off will await, but if wrong, there stops will act like fuel for a continuation to the rally as they will be buyers in the open market which will add and or trigger additional stops at higher levels.

That is what we saw in the almost 500 point Dow move the other day. It happened in the night session where the volume is lighter and easier to push the prices in one direction or another. A chain reaction happened pushing prices up and up until it reached an area that it could not overcome and that was early on in today’s session.

It would be move normal for the market to pull back and work off some of the exuberance from the last few days, but we will have to wait and see. A very nice setup has been put in place with today’s price action and it is very clear to see. How the market will react in the opening hours of tomorrow session will give the insight into the next move.

A move back down to S&P 1200 would normal and natural and believe that will be the expected target if the break is to the downside. After hitting 1250 in today’s session and currently at 1243 that is a big move.

On the other hand, if we move up over the 1250 area with conviction, it could trigger the buy stops by those position traders and will add lots of fuel to push the market still yet higher. As mentioned, time will tell.

In today’s trading, I did not have a good day. It happens and today was one of those days. I was just plan off all the way around. I had three small losses and hit my daily loss limit for the day. The trades and screen shot are below.

Merry Christmas

Sunday, December 26th, 2010

December 26th, 2010;  Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas this week. Best Wishes to all my readers.

This last week, I was expecting a few things and they did happen in the market. First, I was looking for the market sentiment to continue to rise as it has been over the last 5 weeks. The market reversed never triggering the potential sell off as mentioned back then and have been pushing the upper envelope of the range so to speak. We just ran into strong overhead resistance last Wednesday. The market could make another attempt to retest and move slightly higher, but the upper limits are and have been clearly defined.

As noted, the market sentiment has been very slowly moving up into stronger territory. This last week it moved up 2% and is pushing 58+ %.  A reading of 55 or higher is danger zone area. When the sentiment lingers like this, it usually is only building for a bigger move in the opposite direction.

The public is very bullish and has been for about 5 weeks now. If investors feel like the crowd is a good barometer for future moves, that position has rarely ever work out the way planed.

No trading for me last week and I will likely take this week off as well. I will have more to say tomorrow, so until then, Good Trading, if you are and for sure, have a Happy New Year coming;

Vince

Slow Summer Trading Day

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

Today is Wednesday August 18th, 2010 and the markets squeezed out a small gains on the  day with Dow up +10 and the S&P +2 points.

I took a few days off this week as you may have noticed. All is well, but just took a break from trading and writing as summer will soon be over.

The trading day ended up slightly as the market sold off near the close of the session. In a nutshell, we did get that bounce I had talked about last Thursday. I said that we should see a pretty good bounce up on Friday or Monday. It did not come on either of those days but on Tuesday where we saw a very nice advance across the board. The previous low should hold in my estimation at this point, but we will see if  Thursdays market has a retest coming. With the late sell off, that is what it looks like.

I could see the market trading to the 1080 area early in the session, where we should find support around there and try and mount another rally. Currently the S&P is around 1087. The S&P market should stay above 1075 and if 1068 is broken, more heavy selling could come in quickly.

The market has big overhead resistance around 1118. If it can get over that number give or take, much higher prices could come in, but that is the big barrier right now and pretty far off.  Also, it will be interesting to see how the Investors Intelligence market sentiment changed today as I won’t be able to see it until this time tomorrow, but will report any changes.

That’s it for now. I have a simple tick chart of the S&P emini futures below showing the early morning turning points as per my trading method. This is just as far as the indicators are concerned. We teach how to trade the price and use the indicators to confirm. Simple but effective. Until tomorrow, Good Trading.  Vince

Sniper Day Trading Method

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

Today is Tuesday, June 15th and the market is on a roll, since the open, moving back up and over the last resistance.

So, I am writing this before the close of today’s session and we are currently up 19 points on the S&P emini futures and +165 on the cash Dow Jones and finally +50 on the NASDAQ.  So far a great day.

This is what I thought would come as I wrote about yesterday. I said that yesterdays reversal was not much to worry about as it was just some temporary overhead resistance that the Dow and S&P was encountering and so far that seems to be true as the market has broken out over all the overhead resistance.

I noticed a change in the resistance numbers, since the contract month changed and what was resistance at 1106 (what I mentioned last week several times) is now 1102.75. Yesterday the market came within one point of that, 1101.75 and backed off. Those that wanted to sell into the resistance early, jumped on board and caused it to come up shy of hard resistance.

We came all the way back up today and went through it, so far, by a few points and currently +21 points as we sit at 1107.50.  So, we have gone several points over the hard resistance and we are seeing a lot of short covering right now. Those that did not believe we would rally are also jumping on board, to push this up even higher. This will probably continue until we reach those numbers that I talked about in yesterdays post. The average was 1132 S&P emini futures (low was 1122 / high 1042).  Once we get into that area, plus or minus, you should be very careful with long term positions and such. This is just my opinion and is not considered investment advise. But my opinion is as laid out clearly in yesterdays post.

Another update 12:47 West Coast, +24 points and trading at 1110. We will soon hit S&P futures 1122 to start, likely in tomorrows session.

Trading the daily or weekly charts is no different than trading a small tick or volume chart on the index’s or any other trading instrument. It is knowing what the market does time and time again, with advances and retracements. How it deals with support and resistance and the likely moves there after.

The markets always have a certain flow and or rhythm tied to them. It throws off a vibration, as does most emotionally tied instruments. Dialing into the frequency is what will take you home. That takes time to uncover, but it is a skill that can be learned. You often have to think in reverse, since if you use human logic you will most often come up holding the short end of the stick. The patterns and setups in the market place are 100% repeatable and they happen every day. I see it as clear and plan as day. It is no different than picking up the newspaper and reading the headlines.

On the flip side of that, if you don’t know the language, you will misinterpret what it is saying. It would be like thinking you know how to read and understand Spanish, but you only took a few classes, although you are sure you got it down.

Well, I hate to break it to you, but you will need a lot more schooling than that to understand this language. If you have a good teacher, and one that is dedicated to your learning and if you are willing to put in the time to learn this language, than you will over time be able to communicate and understand what is being said. With that, you will be able to get to where you want to go in your trading career.

With the knowledge and confidence of being able to handle yourself in the trading arena, you can write your own ticket. Do not underestimate what it is going to take. I know many try and figure it out on there own, for various reasons, but that will not get you “home” until very late in the day, if at all.

I will admit, I was one of those people. For so many years I learned through trial and error, with lots of error. I never purchased a trading system or method of any kind, never a newsletter, never anything trading subscription related  other than data feed, since I have been following the markets, the early 1980’s. I am not proud of that, but it is what it is. I think, I had a touch of “Pride” — “Ya Think”.

If I did, I could have cut the time it took to understand so many of the trading concepts that I enjoy today. You don’t have to wait that long, but that is a personal choice. The trading knowledge will not come to you so easily as there are so many trading styles and ways to trade. How do you know which one will work best and or, if it will work at all.

That is why I have over the last few months been trying to show my readers the correlation of just two trading indicators I have up on my screen. One above and one below. They match each other closely as well as link up to other larger time frames, (not shown).

I don’t and can not show my whole screen because that would be giving to much information and reserve that for people I am mentoring. What I show is a “Tiny” part of the whole trading method. There is a lot to learn. I have two trading manuals that cover over 150 pages with very detailed information on the whole of the trading method. I recently completed new DVD video’s, spanning several hours, linking all the method together. I send out updates at the close of the market, showing where the method entries and exits were for the day and why (very important for ongoing learning), so you have constant input of where you should be trading and again, why.  In addition to that I will work with any student who wants personal screen time to go over past, current and live data. I commit to working with any student until he or see understands the trading method in whole. All of this helps me as well become an even better trader.

Today’s trading, I went into the NASDAQ market again, as well as the S&P, results below. Video of S&P trades and screen shot of NASDAQ trades. Solid gains in both markets with little draw down, which keeps the struggle to a minimum.

Bullish Set-Up or Bear Trap

Tuesday, June 1st, 2010

Today is Tuesday, June 1st and the market sold off into the close and I got my wish.

We had a sell off into the close and ended the day at the lows, with the Dow off 112 points and the S&P futures off around 20 points. After yesterdays late post, we did go down again hitting the low estimates of the range I thought we might see. With the early target hit of 1080, that was good enough to minimally satisfy the pull back. As it turned out, we went a little lower than the low estimate of 1075 by about 5 points on the S&P futures. That was fine and all looks good for what I think may be coming.

After the open, the market was contained from going up, but did rally very nicely. We never got over the 1096 number that would send us higher as called and that was actually a good thing. This is just something that I see as a possibility and will remain open minded to it. With the market down today, the new sentiment poll will be taken after today’s close and it may sway the “Professional Newsletter Writers” to have a bearish bias. The trend for the last 4 weeks has been down and with last weeks poll, currently at 39 % we could see it get into the 35% area. It has dropped off from a high of 56% bullish just a few weeks ago. With the start of this week down, it may cause them to bit on a sell off scenario and push the bearish bias, which in turn will be bullish yet again.

I don’t know how they will react and I won’t know until Thursday evening as I do not pay for the real time service. I only watch and report it, because it is very interesting how accurate the opposite is so often true. This is only for the larger directional moves within the market. I would not be surprised to see a big up-day and move this week,  if in-fact the bearish trap was laid.

Just from a price action standpoint, if the market was going to make a run for it, we are in the area for it do so. It lines up with other things, making it a very possible move. From this point, it could move very big over the next few weeks, catching many by surprise yet again.

Keeping with the theme I was talking about in my previous post, traders need to look both ways. I will be looking for where the market will likely break down and break up big. That is also a very real possibility and cannot be ruled out. If you do rule it out, you won’t mentally be prepared to do what ever it is you may need to do, because your mind won’t allow you to take action against your strong directional bias. I often say, as traders we need to read the current action but see what the market is saying about each case, bullish and bearish. This is same for short term moves throughout the day. Build your case for bullish, but balance it against a move against you. which has more weight and how strong is the evidence. The strongest case, deserves the action and to what degree.

In today’s trading I had a good day. I was just trading small and picked up a few small scalp trades as the market was looking for direction. I saw a move short after we ran into some overhead resistance and initially came in a little early.

I did get stopped out, and I would have to say that this gave me a little  trading Fear attached to it. This is not the normal fear a trader will exhibit, but this was based on “trading fear of missing a move”. I have talked about that before, and it is something that needs to be monitored and controlled. If you feel strong about a particular move, and do not want to miss it, you have a tendency  to get in it to early. That can cause you to get stopped out and you may loose heart to re-enter thus truly missing the trade. There is a balance to the timing if you see a move coming. You still need discipline to hold yourself back and not take the trade until it is ready. Like baking a cake, if you pull it out early, it won’t rise and taste very good, but if you pull it out at the right time, everything comes together. (Funny example, but I just seen that happen in my home as my wife was baking one, L.O.L)

I did enter short on the trade and doubled up on it as well, because the evidence became very strong that a move down was imminent.  I would have like to have waited just a moment longer until all the evidence was in, but I did not and that is why I got stopped out. If you notice in the video, the indicator was spot on and I was not. That is why I do like using this tool. I don’t overly lean on it, but new traders could until they see and understand “price action structure” like they should.

That’s it for now, all traders need to find there trading edge and exploit it. What ever you do, try and be consistent. That way, once you find out what works for you, you will be able to do it again and again and that will take you where you want to go.     Good Trading to All !

Market Drops Off as Sentiment goes with it

Thursday, May 13th, 2010

Today is Thursday, May13th and the market started to pull back after hitting overhead resistance.

Well, the market hit the overhead resistance I had talked about in the night trading. It came within a couple of points at 1175 before the sellers took advantage of the offering. I would bet you will have some holding on for big potential returns. If it does not happen, they may get stopped out for a 2-3 point loss, but if it does go down like I mentioned in yesterdays blog, it could be a big runner, potentially to 1120 area.

I saw overhead resistance at the previous break, it is not rocket science, but a pull back from that point would be a market play and I am sure there were many looking to get short after the open as well. There were a few good opportunities to do so, with one run producing a trade-able 13 S&P points.

I came into today late, at the last hour and missed all the fun. The market was in that big sell off when I started watching it. I did have a very nice trade just at the close of session for about 4.50 points.  It was that big counter trend move back up. Before that I had a couple of trades I would call bad trades. All losses are not bad trades, they are just losses and that is trading, but if I go against my rules and enter at a point that is not consistent with my method, I call that a bad trade. Even if a trade turned into a gain and I did enter properly, I would still call that a bad trade.

I was able to come back and then some, still hitting my daily goal, but I don’t like it coming so late in the day. You may not have enough time to recover if you are down. Well, that again is my fault for starting so late.

—————–

Just a short word on the market sentiment numbers released on Wednesday morning. This is the investment newsletter writers weekly survey of bullish or bearish opinion. After hitting the tipping point on Wednesday morning the market watchers may have used that to sell it off. All the major Indexes were in the right position to sell off. They were on the right side of the chart as a top had been established with definable short entry points. The break that started on last Wednesday is exactly what we hit in the night trading from today’s session. It basically came all the way back up as if nothing had happened. The sentiment numbers being so bullish at 56% had something to do with it. At 55% and above, is typically the time when you will see a reversal.  With so many people thinking one way, that is a sign that it is about to go in the opposite direction. It lost no time as the decline really started on Wednesday and you now know the rest of the story.

Currently the numbers have dropped off to 47% and that is a good start. At 45%, that is considered neutral and 35% will usually trigger a bullish rally. If we see a pull back as mentioned, the numbers should come off again by next week. The newsletter writing community are usually trend followers and as the move becomes obvious to the majority, it then is time for a change in direction. We are not there yet and are still working off this overly bullish stance.

We will need more time for anything new to develop. You will usually see 3 to 5 good turning point signals from this tool per year. I will keep you posted and interpret as things progress.

That’s it for now, hope to see back again, for another session tomorrow.