We will likely see higher prices for tomorrows early session to a minimum of 1282/84. That is roughly +10 S&P points from where we are now 1274. Currently the night trading is showing signs that a move is coming, but the market should move up either in the night session or tomorrows early morning trading hours. I did a few training video’s of this coming move a couple of hours ago, even before any signs of life were showing. It is possible we could trade higher than that, as I did indicate in Thursday’s blog post.
I was looking for this 1282/84 number on Friday but came up a little short then and pulled back. I think we will see it tomorrow and then the second part that I did write about then and will mention again now, that a move to the low 1300’s is next. That could be on Wednesday. I did see the Fed will be making a interest rate decision on Wednesday this week, which could give the market a little extra fuel to reach those levels.
Today, I took two trades and was done in 10 minutes of trading for 4 S&P points. There were other good trades that I could have taken in the session, but with such a low impact day of 10 minutes of trading, I saw it as a good time to close up the screen and do other things. Those two trades below. Good Trading to all !
4-21-11; Very Strong turn-up in the market with the major averages flirting with new highs. We sure did see a big bounce as the next move in the plan of action I laid out last Friday. We are not currently in danger of taking out the last major pivot low, the next part in the planed layout. One day at a time.
In today’s trading I had modest gains with my minimum daily goal met during the New York mid-day session. It was slow, but I found a few pure scalp trades, enough to post some modest gains.
With the market coming up during the night-trading, there was little energy left to make additional gains. The energy level said to play this close. Take what you can, but don’t have huge expectations. Here is were scalp trading can really give you the edge. In a non-trending choppy environment, there are low risk trades, but limited movement. Listening to the beat of the market is possible, by allowing yourself to see and feel the energy or lack of it.
Just being open and aware, of the emotions that are being swung back and forth, all the while utilizing your Sniper Style skills, to pick your mark, spot your target and go for it. Well, today’s trades below before I get carried away, Good Trading
3-3-11; Today we saw the market continue to push up in last nights night trading session into the open where it hit the upper level of 1319 that I saw coming within the first push of the market. At the time the market was at 1308, but all a mute point. I did not trade it, I just called out what I saw coming with the context of the trading method.
We saw a whole lot more than those number when it was all said and done today. Apparently, there was some good unemployment numbers that came out and gave Wall Street something to cheer about, today. Tomorrow is another day.
In today’s trading, I did hit another daily trading goal although on the low side. I had a few losses and did have one very bad entry, but I was able to work it out. I saw the prospects of higher prices coming and totally jumped the gun. It resulted in a stop out, but had the opportunity I was looking for a few moments later. That entry was early as far as the trading indicators were concerned, but I was totally fine with it, as it was the right move.
I usually don’t stray to far from the indicators as show, but not for the reason of the trading indicator. I am not following the indicators, but the trading method, that is consistent with the indicators. It is really funny that it works out that way, because all the things that make up the trading method, they are not dependent on the indicators to give me the entry. Again, with that said, the trading indicators can help with timing and as we usually see a color change before the signal below. That can be a get ready clue, if the elements of the method are present.
With another daily trading goal met, I only have one day in the week left to make it another 5 or 5 for the week. If I keep my cool and only trade good method trades, I will see that, so let me marinate on that and see how tomorrow turns out. It will be short session for me, as trading time will be limited.
My trades for today below. I have to cut my post short tonight, but wish you all very best.
Today is Monday November 15th and we saw the market trying to stabilize itself with modest gains in the Dow +9 points and flat on the S&P.
Today we saw basically a flat market as a late sell off took the wind out of the markets sails. I can pretty much see where this market is now likely to go and when it is likely to move out on the daily charts. I can share the numbers with you but I can’t really show you or give you my reasoning behind it as it has to do with revealing part of my trade method.
The numbers and even more importantly the time is essential as we will likely see more of the same slow pull back over the next week or so. I know there are many who are now expecting a continuation of the move and it is likely to come, but their is more time that needs to pass. The chart needs to get into a better position by moving over and or moving down. The likely-hood is that we will see both. This is exactly what I was talking about last week when I was talking about trading as it relates to “time, space, and energy”.
There is support in this market and it is just above 11,000 on the Dow and 1175/80 in the S&P. That would give 15 to 20 S&P points more to go. This is and will break rank in the accent of the uptrend and many will think that the move will be over, but I don’t think so. We don’t have to go all the way down to the numbers above, because if time takes us sideways, it may end up being a higher number once we turn the corner. Anything can happen and we will know pretty soon, but lets just give this market a little more tradingtime and see what it has in store for us.
In the intra day market, I am finding that paying attention to where the gap openings are and where they are closed is important. In addition, remembering where the past gaps are and which ones are still open. That can come into play and it is important to write it down in your journal so a quick reference can be noted.
Their is a balance that one needs when looking and playing gaps. Traders need to let the market tell them if a gap is going to get filled or not. Often times it does not come when we think it will or should. That is when you don’t want to argue with the market.
I remember looking back at the data for the open and saw that we had a reversal before the gap was closed and the market did move significantly higher. The gap did get filled but very late in the session. Understanding how and when the gaps will be closed is a function of understanding how to read the price. You will likely need to look at more than one time frame and I suggest to have at least one time chart up for determining where the gap for the day is, by using the symbol @es.d for the S&P emini in Trade Station. That symbol takes the Globex night trading out of the data and shows you where the market opens minus that night session. You can see exactly where everything is that way. I don’t really trade off of minute charts but I like to have at least one up in the background, to see what others may be looking at and use this one as a dual purpose for determining the opening gap. Its easy to loose track of this without it and is why I point out how this may help.
I did not post over the weekend as I had company visiting for several days and still do. I do have my trades for Fridays market as they are next to today’s trades. Today’s trading started with my timing being off. I was distracted as company was still here and it totally through me off. I was forcing trades and trying to make something happen when I should not have. That is the long and short of it. I wanted to pick up a few points quickly but I was not willing to wait for the right trade time. That is one thing that will never change in what ever time frame you trade in. If I did not have, or was not willing to allocate the enough time to trade properly, then I should have not traded today all-together.
I look to have better timing in tomorrows session as making mistakes as the ones I have shown are a result of human weakness, my weakness and not my method. That part is comforting in that I always know that over future sessions, if I do the right thing more often than not, I will pick up the points I need for the session before I hit my daily stop loss point, -4 S&P points. In the above last two sessions, you can see their are other potential trades marked as per my indicator and that just shows when and where a possible trade could have been taken. I don’t need much or many points to hit a nice daily trading goal. Some of the above trading possibilities are better than others but just have a few of them marked. Just remember, indicators are only a reflection of what the price is doing and that is what we trade.
This post is for Fridays action, July 23rd where we saw another 100 point + day on the Dow and an equivalent move in the S&P futures.
The market did put in another triple digit day on the Industrials as the market kicked in a confirmed move over the 1090 S&P futures area I had mentioned last week. Currently we are at 1101 and closed at the very high of the day. That is exactly what I was expecting as I will show you in the chart below. Before I get into that, the sentiment numbers did come out this week and even though the market had come off its highs, the numbers did back up a few % to currently 35%. That is a still a very good number and it will likely only come off back to the middle of the market sentiment range, by a rally. A number of 35% is actually a rally signal number. Last week we were at 32% in the face of over a 5% rally in the market. The number actually dropped, which is a little usual.
The numbers I am talking about is the market newsletter writers that put out weekly information on the direction of the stock market and individual issues. These guys are usually trend followers and almost always get it wrong when a market extreme is reached. We are coming off just such an extreme, whereby you usually see a reaction of that extreme in the opposite direction. I have literally seen about 100 of these signals generated and they are very consistent and reliable. You will see on average 3 to 5 signals over the course of a year and when you multiple that by over 25 years, you get to around 100. I can’t imagine, this one is different.
This is for the longer term picture and I will not be overly concerned by this signal going forward. I am looking right now only for a short term target that I am almost certain will be met. More information below will clear that up.
So, I am expecting a short term target of 1010 on the open or even in the night trading starting Sunday after 3:30 West Coast. The target of 1010 is a short term number I see the market trading up to, on its way to higher prices. We can certainly back off once we get to the next short term target I just mentioned, but I feel it will be short lived.
So, overall, I think the market will trade higher, but may have some pull backs along the way. I posted a new video on U-Tube and will put it in this post at the bottom. It is a 30 minute bar chart of the S&P Emini futures with the night trading taken out of it, so you see the gaps from the previous days if there are any. This view is in a trending model, T-2, and will show you all the turning points since April, about 4 months.
We just went positive two days ago with a 200 point advance in the Dow, followed by a 100+ points behind it. There is about 70-80 points on the Dow and 9 point on the S&P before my short term target is reached as already mentioned.
On Friday, I was able to trade while I was resting from the previous days outing up the Columbia River. What a ride. We had a 40 foot Jet Boat all to ourselves (wife and son), with a captain and deck hand. On the way back down the river, he must have been going at least 50-55 mph, which is fast for such a large boat. I know I am off topic, but we went inside of a giant box with a large ship next to us, and it raised the water level 75 – 100 feet, so we could continue up the river. Wow, that was strange and very different. Never new they had that kind of thing. OK, back to the market.
In Fridays trading I was able to hold through a 10 point advance in the afternoon session and closed out 5 contracts right at the top and doing something I don’t normally do, am holding one contract over to get to the 1010 target area I am looking for, either in Sundays pre-market or early on Monday mornings open.
Below is a screen shot just before the close on the S&P emini’s showing my 1 contract position hold over, of which was from the add on contract I intended to hold over, with 4 points of active profit still in it. Below that is the U-Tube video showing the turning points on a 30 minute chart or the S&P emini’s, no after hours trading.
If anyone has questions, or wants more information on what I do, or wants to ask advise on what you are currently doing, I will be more than happy to give you my opinion to better help you reach your goals. My desire is help traders, period. If you need help, ask and we will go from there.
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