Posts Tagged ‘Nasdaq’

Scalp Traded The NASDAQ Emini’s Today

Monday, June 14th, 2010

Today is Monday, June 14th and we had a little reversal after a nice run up of 16 S&P points.

The market ran up on the open as it continued from its night trading move higher only to top out and pull back to end the day flat. The Dow was up over 100 points and actually ended the day slightly down -20 points.

I think the move was just a move off of some new resistance levels that were touched. On the S&P it came within a few points of that 1106 resistance number that I have talked about and only now becomes even more clearly defined. The Dow is facing the same kind of resistance once it hit its high in today’s session.

Over the weekend, I looked again at all the charts that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Index and I would have to say, that what I am seeing does not look good. I do see a push up as we are making happen right now and likely over the next week or two, but I do see resistance at those middle numbers I put out yesterday, 1122 to 1142. You can pick the middle of those two and say 1132, that would be the average. I am pretty sure we will see the market trade up to those numbers and I can not help but see weakness in the charts that say, we go down pretty big. It may not be a long drawn out thing that lasts till the end of the year or something, but a big move down to around 8800 -9000 Dow at the best and then a possible big move up, taking out our most recent highs.

That is a bold prediction and I am not sure how it is going to coincide with the sentiment numbers, but that is what I could easily see happening. The first move is now up a bit over the next week or two and then a sharp fast drop down, enough to get everyone and there mother to throw in the towel and get bearish, just as we get a short squeeze back up. This is an election year and I don’t think the “powers that be”, wants to let this market tank down to new lows. The first two moves, up slightly and then down big and fast. The last move, we will have to see, because I am a roaring bear long term, but later in the year or early next.

If things change, I will update and show why it may be different, but I look at the charts as if I was looking at a tick chart of the S&P and or any other trading instrument and it just looks like that is the way it is going to go down, no pun intended.

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Today’s trading was pretty painless, as I just picked up a few scalp trades as I saw them. All winning trades here today and did scale out with size as I kept trading. I did not want to dig my way out of a loss by taking a loss with size on it. I was going to stop, but one way to keep trading is trade smaller size, so your draw-downs will not hurt your efforts much to that point.

Later in the session, I decided to try and trade the NASDAQ market and see how its movements are. I have picked one chart below, the smaller time frame to show you the trades I took in it today. The first trade was a loss, but picked up several trades in a row after that, pretty good. I was trying to trade both ways as you can see in the chart below. Down, up, down – that one I missed, but was a good trade, then up, down, and finally up.

I don’t advise this kind of trading for most people, but I did it today. In the last 50 minutes of the day, I took all the directional moves except one, which got away from me and did not chase.

I took most of the trades at the market, because I was not familiar with the fills and it was just easier to go in at the market. The one trade that was not a market order was the one that got away.

The NASDAQ market is a smaller size market. The S&P is traded in .25 points and there are 4 quarters that make up 1 point, which is $50 or $12.50 per increment. The NASDAQ also moves in .25 or quarters and 4 of them makes up 1 point. Each tick or .25 point is $5 dollars for you or against you and 1 point is $20 dollars. I think a 9 or 10 tick stop is good when trading this market and may even be giving yourself more room on the trade when compared to the S&P. That would be $45-50 dollar stop per contract traded. If you can hit an 8 point move, that would be 8 x $20 x 3 contracts = 160 x 3= $480.  Your risk if 9 tick is 45 x 3 = -135 and that is pretty good. I do like the fact that you can have a 9 tick stop and 10 tick target or higher and get the commissions taken care of, because of the smaller increments.

Even at times if you are scalp trading and going for one to one, that is 9 tick stop and say, 10 tick target or 2.50 points for $ 50 x 3 (contracts) and $ 150. Your loss is the same and your gain is the same. You are not looking for a home run here. If you pick up 3 of those little moves, you have a nice wage for the day, but that is just scalping a small piece here and there.  My trading method can definitely do that and more for those interested.

I never got to the lesson on “Day Trading Goals”, and again got on about something else. We will try again tomorrow.  I hope you enjoyed the new information on a new market. This can be done on stocks as well, no problem and if anything,  is easier to trade than the index futures. More on new markets in the coming days, stay tuned.

Good Trading to All.

Glossary

Thursday, February 25th, 2010




Common Terms and Definitions Used in E-Mini Day Trading
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Back Months:
Bear:
Bear Market:
Bid:
CME:
Contract:
Day Trader:
Dow Eminis:
Emini:
Russell Eminis:
Front Month:
Futures:
Limit Order:
Market Order:
Mini:
Stock Index:
Swing Trading:
Tick:

FAQ

Thursday, February 25th, 2010



Frequently Asked Questions (Click on the Question to Reveal Answer)

Q. Can I trade more than 30 to 60 minutes a day?
A. Yes. You can break it up into two sessions if you like. Perhaps a morning session and afternoon session-make 2 point each session.

Q. Can I trade for more than two point a day?
A. My E-Mini trading course has advanced material for those who WANT to trade all day and earn more than two point a day. That’s fine to do, as long as you stick to the rules and not deviate from the trading plan. I personally do not advise it. The high side of the daily goal, four points, should be enough for most traders.

Q. Can I use this with Eminis other than the S&P?
A. Yes! my method works great with the NASDAQ Minis and the Dow Minis.

Q. What is a Day Trading School?
A. Many websites offer day trading training where you have to attend a classroom in a school. If you are not near one of these “schools”, you are out of luck. I offer my course as an “at home” learning experience. You learn at home, to earn at home.

Q. Is this a mechanical system?
A. Yes, and no. Yes, it is mechanical. No, it is not a “system”, it is a method. In my opinion, systems don’t work because the markets always change. Sniper Day Trading will give precise entry points that are highly accurate.

Q. How much money do I need to start?
A. Most brokers require a $5000 starting balance to begin. Amp Futures has a lower minimum opening balance of $ 2,000. That is very tight and offers little room for error, but it can be done if you have excellent discipline and really grasp the method. Following the rules for profitability is a must. Daily loss limit a must and may even have to be tightened to 3 points from 4. That is a daily loss limit of $ 150 dollars for the day. The worst you could do on any one day. So with discipline, focus and the right person, it is possible.

Q. Can I really make an income with a $5k balance?
A. Absolutely! Assuming you can follow the rules! If you can’t, then you will not make it, plain and simple. The choice, decision and outcome are up to you. You will have all that you need to make it. My method works, there is no doubt in my mind. The daily “Turning Points” video’s I do will be an incredible help. If you can build your contract size to just 4 contracts in 4 months time. Increasing your size just one contract per month over 4 months, you will be at a annual monthly income equivalent to making 100K per year, with averaging just 2 points per day. Some days you will hit 3-4 because the market will just give it to you, before you close the trade. That will make up for days you may fall behind. So again, yes it is possible.

Q. Can you recommend a good broker?
A. Yes, Tradestation Securities is the data vendor I use and also the broker, two in one. I have found that these guys are one of the best in the industry and have a very easy trading platform to learn. I recommend them also because it is easier and better to build your screen the way that I have it. We will be using the same platform and format.

Q. How much are commissions?
A. Commission are $2 dollars to buy and $2 dollars to sell per contract. It could be a little more or less depending on the volume you trade.

Q. How long will it take to learn this method?
A. I believe if you read the manual and watch the included videos, you will be underway to learning the Sniper Day Trading method within a week or two. You really need to review the daily trade videos and you really need to trade the simulator first. I will not tell you how long to trade the simulator, because everyone is different. You may need more than two weeks of simulated trading or just a couple days. Any experienced trader will be ready in a few day or so. The method is not hard to understand and apply, most people will grasp it quickly.

Q. What kind of support will I receive from you?
A. My undivided attention! I am not a sales man trying to sell 1000 copies here. I am a real day trader who makes his living from day trading-period. I truly want to see you successful. You will have my private cell number and email address and all the consultation you need.

Q. You mention discipline quite a bit. Why?
A. It’s that important. You need to be disciplined to follow the rules to the letter. That’s why I highly recommend listening to my “Mental Exercise Program” often. As mentioned I will be coming out with future releases of this and make them available to partners at no extra cost to them.

Q. Can I skip trading for a few days and still make money?
A. Absolutely. You will be making money every day you decide to trade! Of course you will not make money when you take a day off.

Q. Can I pay for my course in installments?
A. No. A simple one time payment is required. Please read our CFTC Disclaimer linked from the bottom of my home page. You should be well capitalized to trade futures and should not be trading with money you cannot afford to lose. If you cannot make a one time payment, you may not be ready for trading!

Q. How much can I expect to make in a year?
A. Great question. Personally I consider a $100,000 + a year good income for most people. Following my plan and trading 1 contract to start, and adding 1 contract after every $1500 profit,(every three weeks at 2 points a day) you could be earning well over the above amount a year in a very short time. Trading only up-to 4 contracts at 2 points per day would attain this goal. This is a very conservative approach and one that most should consider especially if you are new to futures trading. Everyone is different. If you do not follow the rules and lack discipline, all bets are off.

Q. Do I have to install your software on my computer?
A. No. I do not sell software! I am selling education materials only. If you don’t have a data package and broker, I really recommend Tradestation. They have it all, they are not perfect, but they have all the software you will need. My custom indicator can be set up on your screen without to much trouble and I can help with that if you need it.

Q. What if I lose my connection while I am in a trade?

A. You need to CALL YOUR BROKER IMMEDIATELY. Personally, I always have a back up computer with a Verizon Internet Card ready to go in case my cable modem goes out. It’s very prudent to have a backup and have your broker’s number on speed dial. I have not had this happen to me, but I am certain it could. I also recommend a battery back-up/surge protector in case the power goes out while you are in a trade.

Q. Will I make money if the market keeps going down?
A. Sniper Day Trading method allows you to profit from up and down markets! Go to the beginners page and read about shorting the market!

Q. Do you offer training after market hours?
A. I do offer an after hours market training to those who need it, but cover a lot of material in the daily video’s I put out after each trading session. This is usually a recap of the trading day and signals generated. I will schedule LIVE TRAINING WEBINARS occasionally as needed to help partners better fully understand some advanced features and how to read price action.

Q. Do you offer a live trading room?

A. Not at this time. I will be considering this in the near future, but not yet.

Beginner’s Info

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Before you start trading, it is very important that you know what it is that you are doing and what you are trading. It is similar to trading stocks but at the same time, very different. There is a definition of terms for those who need to know the basic language in the glossary.

We are trading the S&P 500 E-Mini Futures contract. This represents a shadow or a mirror of movement in the S&P 500 cash index. Traders and institutions across the globe buy and sell contracts with each other. For many, it is a hedge against a portfolio they own and sell contracts equal to the value of their portfolio as a form of insurance. Pension funds and large institutions do the same as well as mutual fund managers.

They are buying and selling protection in the form of contracts against the Index. To do this they need a very liquid pool of futures contracts to draw from and that is where the trader comes into the picture. He or she may not want to hedge their portfolio, but may want to speculate on the future direction of the market. Traders are an essential ingredient to offer the liquidity that the institutions need to quickly move into and out of the market.

I once heard a man ask a trader what he does for a living and his answer was, “I am an asset liquidity provider, how about you”. That statement is true. That is what we do.

Each contract traded represents 50 times the current value of the index. Lets say that the Index is 1000, a nice round number. Multiply 1000 x 50 = $ 50,000 and that is the value of one contract. If the index was trading at 1100 the value of the contract would be $ 55,000. You need to put up a deposit for the right to buy and hold a contract. If you hold the position over night, you will need about $ 5,000 deposit. If you close the position at the end of the trading session the margin will go down to about $ 1,250 for one contract.(day trade margin)

At Sniper Day Trading, we trade for a modest daily goal most days, between 2-4 points. The S&P 500 emini futures trades in ticks. There are 4 ticks that make up one point. Each tick is $12.50 and since there is 4 ticks to a point, one point is $50, 4 x $12.50= $50. If our daily goal is capture 2-4 points we are trading for $100-$200 dollars per contract traded. With an opening balance of $5,000 you could conceivably buy or sell 4 contract. So to use the example above, 4 contracts traded x 100 to 200 each contract, you would be making $400-800 per day.

We don’t recommend that traders start trading the maximum, but start at the smallest and work your way up. It is possible, averaging 2 points per day that in 4 weeks you could be trading at 4 contracts and bringing in the kind of money above. You can stay at that level or increase it over time. What ever you feel comfortable with. You may decide to go slower and reach that level in 2 or 3 months and that is OK. The main thing is averaging that 2 points per day over an extended period. It is very possible, people are doing that and more all over the country and you could to.

On the main page we talk a lot about discipline, patients, and focus, all essential things for reaching your goals. But first you need to know how to trade. I offer that in my course and if you decide to become part of the family, I will see to it that you understand my trading method and how to apply it.

When we put on a trade, we teach how to enter at just the right moment as the momentum will carry you higher or lower which ever way to you are trading.

Make Money as prices go up or down

Which brings me to my next point. You can make money in either direction, up or down. Often, prices go down a lot faster that they do going up. The principal works the same. When you put on a trade that is going up, we would call that a LONG TRADE and when you put on a trade that is going down, we call that a SHORT TRADE. We teach how to take these trades in a clear concise way. No gray area.

When we take a Long Trade, we Buy to Open / Sell to Close

When we take a Short Trade, we Sell to Open / Buy to Close

There is always someone on the other side of the trade to take the position, the price is the only thing that changes. If you sold the futures or “Shorted” the market at the S&P price of 1091 and you covered the trade by buying it back at a lower price at 1088, you just made a 3 point profit of $50 X 3 points = $ 150 dollars per contract traded.

Remember that each tick is broken up in quarters and 4 quarters make up 1 point. You can think of it like 4 quarters make a dollar, but in this case, it makes $50, because each tick is worth $12.50.

Commission cost for the transaction varies on the broker but the typical costs is about $2.00 to buy one contract and $2 to sell one contract. The complete transaction is called “round-turn”, buying, then selling.

TIME CHARTS

When building our charts on the screen, we use tick data. Tick data is different than time data. Trading in a one minute bar chart is the smallest increment of time that you can use. When using TICK CHARTS, you can create a much more detailed view of the trading history. It is through this trading history that we are able to draw up our entries in this much more detailed view. It allows us to enter at the exact point, Sniper Style, to hit our mark. Get in, Get out, Get done.

We teach precise entry and exit points using these tick charts and with the ongoing training you will always see the method applied to current data.

Above, is an example of a Candle Stick Chart. These are typical setups for us, as you can see the entries short and then long. The first trade was good for 1 to 2 points and the second good for the same or higher.

I usually follow bar charts that have an open, high, low and close to them, as shown above. Some people like using candle stick charts and that is a matter of preference. Candle charts have a wider body and make it a little easier to see the open, high, low and close, but using tick charts, often we need the screen room to see the complete patterns developing as well as one feature that I use to help visually see the change in direction. Often, this change in direction matches the other components of the method which helps to confirm our entry, LONG or SHORT.

Different Types of Orders

There are three main types of orders used in our style of trading. There are “Market Orders”, “Limit Orders” and “Stop Orders”. I use all three of them at different times for different reasons and explain it all in my course and mentoring program.

A market order, in our style of trading is typically used to close positions that are still open. Others may use them to start a position but we don’t often do that. It better serves us to use this order when we have an open position close to our stop loss and decide it is better to close the position and the protective stop at once. Both done with one click of the mouse at the same time.

A “Limit Order”, is an order to buy or sell at the specific price that we specify. See the example below. There is a blue column, the “Bid Size” and red column, the “Ask Size” This is where I place my orders. By clicking inside the blue column, price 1091.50, I am willing to buy at that price only. When contracts become available from the other side, the red column, my order is filled and I will have gone “Long the S&P emini futures market”. The opposite is true for “Selling Short”. This is an example of buying or selling with a “Limit Order”.

The last order type, “Stop Orders”, are usually used to protect a trader from incurring a greater loss than what he has predetermined ahead of time. For me, it is 1 point or less on all trades I put on. ($50 dollars per contract traded or less). That is the maximum loss and is set automatically at the time I click the order to buy. No need to do anything else. You can set predefined limit order targets and they can go up at the same time as your order entry as well. One click of the mouse and the rest of the entire process is complete. You can even stagger your “Limit Order Targets” if you trade more than one contract, say 1 point and 2 points. If the first one gets hit and filled, your stop loss will automatically adjust itself to only protect now the remaining half of your open position. Nothing else needs to be done, but just the one click order entry, period.

This is a very nice feature for those who may lack discipline in placing their stops and targets when and where they should after they enter the market. You can even use the one click feature just explained and use a “Trailing Stop Loss”. This will automatically move your protective Stop Loss up with say a rising market. You can set a trigger point, say its one point. When you reach that one point level you sell half your first position, every tick the market rises from there, your stop will rise by that much, keeping a 4 tick stop position. If the market had moved up 3 points quickly and came back 1 point, you would automatically sell your remaining position at 2 points, locking in your profit. This is because you preprogrammed it to do just that. This again is a great way to capture more profit in a fast moving market all automatically. The only thing that starts the process is just the one click of the mouse. Done. Very Cool. I, most often do it manually, but that is me. I can show you how to set this upin a blink of an eye and teach you to effectively use this feature.

Different Types Of Trading

There are different types of trading. The three most common, “Day Trading”, “Swing Trading” and “Position Trading”. Day Trading is what we do, because we never hold any position over night and make a few trades inside the daily session. Swing Trading, will carry positions over-night and hold those positions for several days. Position Trading, will hold similar trades but for several weeks or months.

Inside of Day Trading, there are several approaches as well. We look at three main tick charts, separated by small, medium and large time frames. Depending on the traders preference, if he or she has one, we can tailor our program to match your current trading style, or mirror what I am using for my trading. In our first meeting together, I will be able to help you discover what is the best time frame for you to start with. Naturally, I will show you how I set up my charts and fully explain the way that I trade. After that, we can go from there.

Scalp Trading

Scalp Trading, is often misunderstood. There is really no set definition that will clearly define it. It may mean one thing to someone and something else to another. That said, what I most often do is Scalp Trade the S&P 500 futures emini market. You can trade other markets like the Russell, the NASDAQ, or the Dow Jones. Each has an emini futures market that is liquid and very trade-able.

When the trading range is very narrow, scalping 2, 3 or 4 ticks, may be all the market safely gives you, without waiting around hours for a good trade setup. This is how I would define Scalp Trading.

With our base daily goal of 2 points or 8 ticks, you only really need say, 1 trade for 1 point and two trades for 3 ticks and that would also cover commissions and you are done for the day.

The setups are the same in the smallest time frame, as compared to the highest time frame, because the market is “Fractal” in nature. That means the same patterns and setups occur in all time frames across the board, showing a trading symmetry that is often seen in nature, below is an example of that.

With my trading approach, we are able to capture what the market is giving us. If the trading range is expanding and large swings are showing up, we can capture those moves for multiple point returns.

Scalp Trading, gives you the ability to save time in your trading, by getting in getting out and getting done with it and on to other things. I don’t trade all day, like many do. This style of trading offers the “Time Freedom” that many covet. Having the Trading Discipline to walk away after hitting our Day Trading Goal is key in keeping the struggle to a minimum.

Getting what you need from the market, is like shopping for fresh meat and produce at your local supermarket. If you try to stock up on too much, it will go bad and you will lose it all. I find the same true in trading, getting what you need for today is a better approach and produces trading discipline, controls greed and keeps the traders struggle manageable. It is a lot easier to get 2-4 point in a day verses 8-10 points in a day. When you are not able to reach this high trading goal, it will produce frustration and feelings of failure can creep in, derailing all of your efforts.

Controlling Fear and Greed

Many traders just starting out, soon discover that they have almost what seems like uncontrollable trading emotions. They find it difficult to stay focused and maintain control. Often, traders find themselves trading with their minds to focused on the money. That is a sure-fire way to slow your progress and often ruin it entirely.

Most traders have gone through this, but most don’t know how to break the bonds of these powerful emotions, Fear and Greed while Day Trading. The good news is, I do know and is very much apart of the Sniper Trading approach. These are things that I uncover and address to my students and take this part very seriously. Starting out, many are not even aware of these dangers, but that is my job to prepare you for any unforeseen problems that can come between you and your modest daily trading goal each day.

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Controlling Greed and your Trading Emotions

Wednesday, January 13th, 2010

Today is Tuesday, January 12th and the momentum has slowed the last two days.

Todays Index’s were down across the board, with the NASDAQ getting the worst, followed by the S&P -10 points and the Dow, -30 points. We are very close to the extended March 6th trend line support on these index’s. If that support breaks, it will be the first clue that we may have turned the corner on the rally. But still it remains intact and all is well.

As I had thought, today we saw the first signs of life in the futures market, with volume coming in at over 2 million contracts. Just what I was saying yesterday, that 2 million contracts traded in the emini futures market is considered good volume and we hit it today. It has been a long time, probably longer than a month with this kind of volume.

As day traders, we need volume to push the market around, otherwise it becomes more difficult for traders to make money. It is always easy for them lose money and with low volume, bingo, you are there.

Most traders do not know how to trade in shallow trading ranges and end up getting beat up pretty bad. But if you know how to Scalp Trade this market, taking a little out of the middle, you can survive in any kind of trading environment. That is not easy to do for most people and there will be those that say it is foolish to try. Probably because they were not able to make it work for them. Traders are doing this all across the globe and they are taking it from those who think they can.

Some people only scalp trade and that term can mean different things for different people. To me, taking 2,3 or 4 ticks, will qualify as a scalp. Others will call taking a 2-4 point profit on the S&P emini’s, a scalp. So, the term is used widely. If I can make a profit on these small trades while keeping my losses to an equal amount 1 to 1, I am doing OK, because my percentage is pretty high. You need to have 60% or better with the better being more like 75 and up.

When I trade, I look for both kinds of trades. If the market will give me an extended move, often I position myself to capture it. At times I take half off early which gives me the extra ability to ride the move out. It’s a good way to trade.

In my trading today, I did not do as well as I had wanted, but I had a few bigger trades to cover myself. I came in late in the day and missed some big moves short. Overall I think a came a little short of my daily goal because of commission, but close. I had 10 trades 5 gains 5 losses, but had a few trades for higher point returns. As I said I was off. Lack of concentration and I did not take a break from a training session I had with a student.

My timing and concentration was off, with the first two trades as loses. They were not good entries and it cost me. I could have avoided  some of the lose by closing the trade out early as I normally would do once I start to lose the edge. To me and my method, the Trading Edge, is clearly defined and when I lose it, I need to get out, often avoiding  my full stop out of 1 S&P point. I start out with a 1 point stop on all trades, but it almost instantly goes to three ticks when I get one tick of movement in my favor usually when I am in scalp mode.

Often times I am able to catch trades for several points as I did last Friday with a 4 and 5 point gain. It does depend on the price action and what the market gives you. If the markets clamed up and its daily trading range shrunk, many traders would suffer, because they only know how to trend trade. When its choppy, they often stay out, but only after they got burned by non directional non moving market. Being able to Snipe or pick off a few trades makes life a lot easier, providing that you can do it. You end up having the ability to pull a few points a day out of the market, no matter what kind of market you have.

I will make a few comments from where I left off yesterday, about needing all three components to become successful as a trader. It does not matter what you trade, these are things everyone in this business needs.

We all need to know how to trade, by following a methodology or system of some kind. Next you need trading discipline, as it is often talked about.  The last thing is, you need to be aware of the forces that are naturally working against you. What forces are you talking about?  Well, for starters, yourself. When trading, there is something called our human nature. That nature says many things about us and our ability to become profitable. It is to often, the unseen things that holds us back from realizing our dreams.                                                                                                                         ————————————————————————————————————————————————-Let me focus on one point and see how far we go. GREED. That is a human emotion that all of us are faced with. We did not learn it, it comes very natural for most of us. I believe, we need to unlearn it or decide ahead of time, by an active decision to not allow this emotion to take root in us. If we can, it will make so many things better not only for our trading endeavors, but in every other area of our lives, good stuff.

The only way we can ever address it, is if we are first aware of it. After that, what are we going to do, to get a handle on it?  This emotion has been one of the leading causes for traders to blow up there accounts.

We need to be content with modest gains when we have them. The opposite of content is discontent and the twin brother of discontent is greed.

Unless you are content with your piece of the market, you will continue to strive for more. In trying to get more, you will lose what you have. Take control of your trading and your emotions. Trade with a purpose and a goal.

Will Dow Jones Industrial support hold?

Monday, November 2nd, 2009

This post is for Fridays session, October 30th.

The market sold off like fiercely on Friday and took the Dow down about 250 points. The S&P was off about 30 points. I did think that a re-test of the Wednesday and Thursdays low would come, but not so fast. I thought we had at least one more day to top out for the counter trend rally. There was news that came out on Friday, not really sure what it was to tell you the truth, but I could only imagine that it wasn’t good and the market reacted to it. It is to be expected.

Let me tell you, that in the month of September and October, the general public has become bullish. The last two months has only produced paltry gains when compared to the gains of the previous six months. That is where all of the money has been made. The general public is always late to the party and I don’t imagine that this time is going to be any different.

Mondays session is going to tell all, at least for now. What I mean is as I was telling you last week that the Dow has been outperforming the S&P and that was a problem. Well, it is not only the S&P that it is outperforming but the other index’s, but in a bigger way.

Based on my experience and I did not see this or hear this from anywhere, but years of seeing price action at work, the institutions are lightening up their riskier positions and reallocating equity assets in the high quality Dow Stocks. I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago, if I remember correctly. That is pretty typical at market tops

The Nasdaq Index is at a double bottom from its most recent pivot point low, something that the S&P is thinking about doing, to follow suit. The Russel 2000 Index has already overwhelmingly broke its most recent pivot low, by a wide margin. The Dow on the other hand has not broken down yet at all, but is sitting right on a major trend line support.

So, the Dow is the strongest, next comes the S&P 500, then the Nasdaq and lastly the Russel 2000. If the Dow holds and moves higher, the other indexes will only be making a counter trend rally, but will still remain in a down-trend, stopping at overhead resistance. Once the Dow does break down, all of the other Indexes will only go down that much farther and faster. There is a lot of room for the market to move back to the middle of its range of the last 8 months.

The last thing I will say about all of this tonight is, “Earnings”. I don’t follow this much either, but just the big picture. The projected earning that Standard & Poors are putting out for the S&P 500 for next year are a bit of a fairy tale. They have been constantly wrong and now they are painting a wonderful rebound of large proportion in earnings. Anything is possible, but I doubt it. I had heard, according to Bloomburg, that the S&P has had declining earnings for 9 straight quarters and only this last quarter have they been able to increase earnings. Those increases are from very depressed levels, not that hard. The increase in earnings in my estimation is coming from cost cutting in various forms. You can only cut cost so much and for so long, before you can not cut anymore. Where are the increases in sales going to come from. No one is spending and no one is lending and money??? INTERESTING.

That is why, the market is going to adjust itself to reflect where it is going to be in 6-9 months from now, probable lower. Just now the S&P is turning their earnings, like this month. If you invest in these companies now, you are going to pay way to much. But that is what the public does. You needed to be invested at least 6 months ago to be able to enjoy some of this rally, not two months ago, like I talked about at the top of todays post.

We need to see what the Dow is going to do in Mondays session. If it to breaks support, then all of the indexes will have downside momentum working for it. But if it can hold, there is now room for it to clear 10,300, a complete 50 retracement from it’s all time high. The S&P numbers for the same retracement are 1120. We got close.

The sentiment numbers backed off just a little last week. It is sitting at 48% Bulls. A reading of 55% is considered bearish. We only got as high as 51. One last push to the numbers above could push the reading to 55%, the big word in there is COULD.

Friday’s session was incredible. So many great clear signals all day long. I only took one trade and it was split up, what I call a “T-2″.   The first half for +1 point and the second part for 3 1/2 points. I was in the market for less than 1 minute on the first part and 4 more minutes for the second part. I really only had my screen open for 15 minutes, start to finish. There will be plenty of other trading days to capture higher point returns. But my daily goal was meet, no struggle, no fuss, no mess. Just the way I like it.

Until tomorrow