Posts Tagged ‘market volatility’

Market Top In or Very Close

Wednesday, February 15th, 2012

The daily stock market is very close to a market top and or if not, its very close. It is possible we may hang on for another week, but we are fast approaching D-Day, (decision day). For those who are riding the wave higher, attention should be in order. I won’t rule out a one last push higher, then reversal back down in the coming week, but its getting close, which is just my opinion.

A break of 12,700 with a close below that for the Dow, will likely have follow through to the downside of significance. On the S&P emini futures, a break of 1333 and a close below that number will likely see follow through to the downside as well. That is only just a few small points from where we closed today, so there is not much room before things start to change up for a while. In today’s trading, I was at it for 60 minutes and picked up a modest daily goal in the S&P emini’s. As you can see above, there were a few mild market swings before we saw a drop kick in during the New York lunch time.

It appears that the volume and movement is kicking up and think that this may be a good sign that we will see more market volatility coming.

Day trading helps with greater market volatility because the market swings are bigger and they occur more often, giving you more trading opportunities in a shorter span of time, all a plus.

We will see what happens tomorrow as we are on the edge. I would like to see one more week of stable to higher prices, but its not up to me. Either way, being able to scalp a few points out of the market is a great skill to have. You are never held up by the market, because one thing is for sure, that the market will move based on perceived values from those who drive them.

Good Trading to All !

Low Market Volatility

Wednesday, January 11th, 2012

Today is Wednesday January 11th 2012, where we just keep seeing low market volatility day after day. During the Christmas Holiday’s it was understandable, but now into the new year, the amount of trading opportunities has gone down.

Day trading in a low market volatility conditions, will test the skills of all traders, as the moves are smaller and trading opportunities fewer. In addition, your level of patients will be tested as well, which brings me to today’s trades.

I was tested a few times with being patient, but I don’t fault myself for playing it safe.  I come to expect the market to react when conditions are right and when it takes to long, that can be a sign for caution ahead. Being conservative can keep your losses small, but if doubt is present, my view is to step aside until stronger conviction is present. The day’s trades below.

The trading method is separate from the trading indicators as they are there to confirm what is already present. That is very important and cannot be over-repeated.

Not every trading signal as shown is a low risk entry and would have passed on some of the previous signals. Using the mind and method to screen out which turning points are best and which are to left behind can keep your balance sheet healthy.

I have been on a little kick about this in my last few post, but it can be misunderstood as I just post the charts and such. I look to capture 2-4 S&P points for most sessions and call that my “Daily Goal”. When the market is really moving and opportunities are present for more, I will go far beyond that goal to help make up for any short falls in the previous days so I can keep pace with that average. It is a good way to approach the management side of your account as this will keep your stress levels down, not having to swing for the fences every day.

Which all reminds me of some trading advice I gave a member today. We don’t have to take every trade we see and we don’t even have to take “Any” trades. If we don’t like it or not sure, don’t feel like to you have to take it. We are not under any obligation to trade and so we should be free to pass. This will allow you to see the hidden gems when they come up. The perfect trades will just show up, without you having to hunt for them.

In market conditions as this, it is very important I feel to be able to “snip” or pick off a point or so on some clear trades. Doing so correctly can add up just the same as one good trade. If the bigger moves are not present, what you are left with is small moves. If you can not find a way to take points out of that kind of a market, then you are now at a disadvantage and subject to market conditions.

For some, this is no problem as I mentioned above, we don’t have to trade conditions that don’t meet our expectations, but I have seen market conditions last for months like this. If you can not make a profit because your conditions are not right, then you are out of business.

That is why being well rounded to be able to take a 1 point out of the market while not risking more than that, is of value. You can always trade the 3-5 point trades or more when they are present, but you are in greater control. Having the ability, even if you don’t need to use it often, will add a greater sense of confidence to any trader.

That is why I have different models setup for different conditions. The one I use mostly, is you could say the all purpose model. I have a higher time frame chart that fits in with the one I show (that is not seen) and they act as a team giving you a full picture as they are interlocked in my own unique way. There is one series of this below and one series of these above the middle one mentioned. All three of these can be used for insight and or trade opportunities to give you results based on market conditions

More on this in my next post….

Good Trading to All, Vince

The S & P is Getting Ready for a good move, which way?

Thursday, February 11th, 2010

Today is Wednesday February 10th and the market ended the day down slightly, -2 on the S&P and -20 on the Dow.

I have been sick the last couple of days and was not able to get a post in yesterday. I did trade for a few minutes yesterday and picked up some nice quick easy trades. Today I traded as well, but I don’t know exactly what I was thinking. This needs to be one of those lessons I need to learn from. Don’t trade if you are sick, pretty simple. ( I didn’t get the memo, lol.)

I started off with a two point gain and another for a point and half or so and that should have done it. But I traded way more than I should have, given that fact that I was not all there. Crazy. The day worked out still fine. I did pick up my daily goal, but what I don’t like is making poor trading decisions under terrible conditions, being sick. I usually only use a very small stop and if my concentration is not there I could see a daily stop out for me, of -4 points. I have not had one in a long time and I want to keep it that way.

This is one of the reasons I write this blog. To get on myself when I mess up. Some may thing I am being hard on myself and I am. If I am not hard on myself, then who is going to. I still made an equivelent of about 3 1/2 points after commissions, but that is not the point. If I start taking non method trades, eventually it will catch up and cause me to be stopped out for the day.

The beauty of having disciple enough to stick to a daily stop-loss point is because if you do something crazy, or what ever, the worst thing that is going to happen is that you have a manageable small loss on the day. When I ask myself, what is the worst thing that can happen to me today. I always know what the answer to that question is, that in itself, takes the pressure off or makes it easier.

Anyway, the price action was great yesterday. I did see some really good moves, just before the big reversal, wow, nice rally’s and price movement up until the afternoon and the same for today. Both days afternoon sessions have been choppy and not exactly what we expect. The early sessions have been pretty good, but you do get some choppy swings at times. It does not seem to last more than 15 or 20 minutes though.

From Mondays post, I remember saying that if we were able to get above 1063 on the cash S&P we would soon see 1071. If we are able to get above 1071, we soon see 1077-1080. Over 80 we will see 1097-1109.

Well, we got the first three exactly. The high was 1079.28 on the cash. That is exactly where we sold off and was the high for the day. The market closed off about 10 points from that high. We did not yet see the last part of that and it could come tomorrow or the start of it. In fact, we are in middle ground now and it actually go either way.

Today was an inside day. Todays trading range is inside of yesterdays and when that happens, you are getting the build up necessary for a big move. We have been basing for three days now since the sell off and as I said, it could still go either way. I would say that the odds are it goes up to hit the upper targets I mentioned. On the dow, it looks like about 300 points plus. The either way, is an equal distance down as well.

If we go up to hit that upper target, I don’t think it will hold. That being said, I would like to see the sentiment numbers that came out yesterday and will be published tomorrow. (Market Harmonic’s) has it there for free, with a two-day delay.

That is about all I can write, when I am feeling better, I will post some good information and continue with helpful things that may help us all in the battle to over-come.

Good Trading !

Volatility Returns to the markets

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008

As I thought, the volatility has returned to the markets after the election. The last two days we have seen a return to some big moves in the market. It was expected.

The S&P moved from the inside day I had talked about to the upside by about 45 points (roughly 400 dow points). Today it moved right back down and then some. I have posted below the results of yesterday and today’s trading. Only trading between 1 and 4 contracts with 2 being the average. I will write more on Thursday about what is happening, so until then, enjoy your day.

Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/XtWQf3bQ

http://www.screencast.com/t/FQQ1U4zh

http://www.screencast.com/t/5TfW5OWxGAT

http://www.screencast.com/t/nemDxDwpW6T