Posts Tagged ‘market sentiment’

« Older Entries

Market Rally +400 on Dow Jones

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

Today is Wednesday November 30th, 2011 and we saw the market rally +400 on Dow Jones, with the bulk of it coming in the night session.

That kind of a move is very nice to see, but it did leave most traders with little left to trade as the range began to narrow. Currently the market is still open with about 2 hours to go so there could be better action for those afternoon traders.

I did restart my trading today, with just very modest gains. I took 4 trades with three of them profitable. The second trade took care of the first trade with a little extra as I did add on and the next two added to that for as mentioned a modest gain for the day. Just a little over an hour on trading which is OK.  I really don’t like trading for multiple hours at a time. I am sure I could make more points if I hang in there, but I could make mistakes and have to struggle to come back and so on. I am sure many know what I am talking about.

When market conditions are favorable, that is when it could be OK to stretch it out a little. When the range is narrow and movement shallow, there is no need to push it. Early on after the open, things were much better, but after the first 90 minutes many are just finishing there day. That happened to be the top in the market and just when I started, a little more tricky. My trades and the first hours of the market action below.

Trading in the S&P emini’s can be simple, but it is rarely easy. Above are just a few small scalp trades that netted me a little better than 2 points. I look for 2-4 points per session and can go weeks at a time hitting that. Every trader needs a plan and a solid method to follow. I show a limited version of my screen as the indicators are just a reflection of price and my trading method. The price is always first and a traders ability to read it is key. These custom trading indicators are a nice way to tell you if you are early, late or should not even consider taking a trade. The color change is often a possible get ready indication that a turning point may be coming. Conditions need to be met for a strong buy at those area’s as some trades are better than others.

Yesterday, I mentioned I would go over the daily market and what we could expect in the weeks to come. I know Europe is on a tipping point and the market has corrected from its initial blast off from the market lows of early October, which leaves us coming back up towards overhead resistance. There is a little upside before that resistance firms up, which will be the ultimate test. Yesterday I wanted to write about this upside resistance being tested as we are doing today, but chose to skip it.

The market sentiment has pulled into a neutral area which does leave room for more upside in the weeks ahead. With last weeks large pull back, the sentiment continued to climb. With the market advancing the last couple of days, that lead me to think the bullish bias would continue, but it back off a bit instead. That leads me to believe that some skepticism did come back and will be what is needed for the market to overtake the overhead resistance we are approaching. Currently the market sentiment for the bulls is in a neutral area.  All very interesting stuff.

That’s it for now. Good trading to all.

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in market sentiment | No Comments »

Got that Stock Market Turn Wrong

Monday, October 3rd, 2011

Today is October 3rd, 2011;

We saw a sell off of the Wall Street well past my cut off point as recently talked about.The market should have held up above the 1120 area and did not today. Instead, it turned that energy in the opposite direction closing on the lows of the day.

Today is the first day of the trading month and the first day of the new quarter. I don’t get every call right and this one is clear that I did not get right. Losses are apart of the business and it is a little funny in that today I took a loss in own day trading.  I did not stick around for a lot of action today, as I just did not feel in sync. I took two losses back to back, with the first one about 6 ticks and the second one a bit more.

I hit my daily loss limit because the second trade had a much larger stop to it. Seeing the increased volatility, felt I may have needed a little more room, but that was not really the problem.

No excuses, that is the way it is and has to be. I can not rationalize my losses but, I can still share how things went last night and what was the POSSIBLE effect of it.

Last night I was up three times with broken sleep as I had animals on the prowl for my animals. I live in the country and had a very disruptive evening. I won’t carry on as it is just life, living and the way it goes.

I could see my judgment was off and thought it best to just let it go and take the small loss for the day. I don’t like to loose more than 4 S&P points in any one trading day. The volatility is higher these days and I could justify a little higher limit, as my gains have been higher to compensate for that, but I just let it go. Today’s trades below.

As you can see, the indicators did not support my decisions and it shows. The previous turns were pretty clear, but there is always tomorrow. I have not had a loosing day in long time, but not being mentally in charge can take a toll.

I will start sometime this week to cover some issues traders face in the mental side of there venture. I will be quoting a book written some time ago that is not related to trading, but at the same time it is very related.   It is a book that was written in the early 1900 century, but you would be surprised as to its Wisdom as it relates to trading. It is amazing and I will start going through parts of it, little by little.

I plan on starting that in tomorrows session as I think it will be a nice shift to offer more valuable insight into the day trading venture as it relates to why we do what we do and or don’t when we should.

This blog is basically my trading journal and get to write and explore what is predominantly on my mind. These days, I found that re-reading the book was a powerful and insightful experience and thought many of my readers would enjoy some of key quotes from the book and my insight from those quotes.

It very much relates to what we do as traders so much so, that it will help improve your ability to trade effectively no matter what method you trade. So look for some of that special insight in the days to come.

As far as calling this market turn, the momentum is down in the monthly, down in the weekly, down in the daily now with the last day and or two, so for anything to change it has to happen in the daily first and before that, the hourly and so on. So far it is all down.  The market has not yet broken under its recent low in the S&P and the Dow, so from that standpoint, there is still some support there.

I will be looking for market sentiment changes this coming week to see for any extremes. Those numbers will be out on Wednesday morning and may give some insight. As mentioned in yesterdays blog, I am under no illusions that it is all entirely possible to see a massive sell off, as this is October to boot. As day traders though, it really does not mater which way it goes and need to remember that.

Until tomorrow, trade well and committed !

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Trading Psychology | No Comments »

Expecting Bullish Market Sentiment to Rise Further

Thursday, December 16th, 2010

Hello, Vince here on this Thursday December 16th as we saw some renewed interest in equities with the Dow +42 and the S&P  emini +6 points for the session.

Before I get started let me post my trades here below and will then give some commentary regarding the daily market.

Just before Thanks Giving the market sentiment turned extremely bearish usually signaling a change of direction. I called that out very loudly, but was looking for a closing break below the 11175 area to confirm the move, it never came.  A reversal back up was very likely to half the recent sell off and or a complete tracement  of the move back up to the highs, is exactly what I said back then.We have since moved past the old highs now with a new target in mind.

As the market moves higher, more investors are coming back into the market as the herd mentality is starting to take over. That does not usually last long, so be on guard. Their are some powder kegs brewing for a list of various excuses the market will use to sell off, when we finish this run. The maximum right now, is a little higher as time passes,  as high as 1255 to 1260. This is would be a retest of the initial resistance I called at lower levels around 1220, but the resistance is slanted up at an angle to account for the passage of time.

If anyone has not noticed, the Yields on 10 year Treasury Bonds as increased for 2.50% to 3.48% in one month. That is a 33% increase in 20 trading days and is a lot. This is exactly when the Fed was exercising Quantitative Easing, or buy back Treasury Bonds to keep interest rates down. Well, that does not seem to be working to well. In fact there are much larger forces now at work here and you can expect yields to move up much more, creating competition for stocks.

If anyone has not noticed, The Euro Dollar looks like its in big trouble. This is going to bring down country after country in Europe and more and more money is going to be needed to shore it up from collapsing. That is a big one. A financial Tsunami  brewing out there. Things may be OK for the rest of this year and maybe even early into the next, but those are just a few Mega problems brewing that can derail any recovery.

I would like to be optimistic, but being a realist is the smarter play. The point to all of that, Be Careful. Don’t become blind to the real economic situation across the country, lack of jobs being one of them.

Being a successful day trader can take a lot of pressure off an individual looking to find his place in the work place. I have received a lot of good emails recently sharing traders recent successes and thought I would share one of them here with you today. I believe this trader in the below email he sent me, will make it long term as a successful trader. With some personal coaching he is understanding the importance of keeping his mind clean and void of allusions of riches, all which will cloud and alter ones performance.  Taking it one day at time and trading only that which he understands from the method, he will make it.

This trader has a general knowledge of markets and has struggled finding something that works. After taking in all the information, he had great results in simulation having 7 days in a row of gains without one single loss. He shared with me in a previous email that he has never before been able to see the market the way he now does because of the trading method.

We had a personal training session together before he went live this week and he has done very well for himself. Giving the fact that Monday and Tuesday were very slow trading days, with Wednesday being a little more active. This is but one reason why I like to teach and share my method, to make a difference. This trader was considering on giving up the whole idea of making his dream a reality. It is early, as he indicates in the email, but he has never done this good before. I am very happy and proud of his progress as well as other students who have been able to put it all together. His email below:

———————————————————————————————————————————————-

Hi Vince,

Today I took 5 trades: all Russell2k (TF), all 1 contract but the first
one

Long: +4 ticks – 2 C’s
Long: -4 ticks -  1 C
Long: +13 ticks – 1 C
Long: +9 ticks – 1 C
Short: +2 ticks – 1 C

Total: +24 ticks for today and +44 Gross for the week thus far.

I did make a couple of mistakes but was able to collect myself
and deal with the situation. Today was a beautiful market for day
trading many gyrations showed up. I keep studying and reviewing your work,
thanks a lot for the information and videos. Another thing I tried was to trade
stocks in my IRA, trying to apply the method and guess what happened?
…
I bought PIP as it crossed a reference point early on near the open and
collected a cool $150 IN NO TIME.

What can I say, I know it is early to sing victory but I am very happy
and very grateful our paths crossed. Your ideas really brought it altogether
for me. I know this is just the beginning and I need to learn more, I
will continue to do my part maintaining the focus and concentration.

Thanks, Gio.

———————————————————————————————————————————————–

Much success to all my readers, Vince

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in market sentiment | No Comments »

Markets Rally to Previous Highs

Thursday, December 2nd, 2010

Today is Thursday, December 2nd and we saw two days of big gains across the board to bring the market back very close to its previous high before the Thanksgiving holiday.

I am glad to see it, as well as the rising retail sales that are said to be very good, but am optimistically cautious. The market will not rally to long here as the investor sentiment is still to high for an extended run. Their are to many people expecting the market to continue its long rally at this point which will cause problems. Had the sentiment stayed under control, we could have move higher after my short term target of 1220 was hit, but that has put a damper on things.

I mentioned last week that we could retest the highs but thought that any rally would be short lived. I did a U-Tube Video a couple of days ago (Monday) and pointed out their,  that we were in a position to rally back up to around 1210 and possibly to the old highs of 1222. It took an extra day of consolidation, but the short term rally did come and here we are. Over all, a large drop can come in at any time. With the news being so volatile, anything can happen now, because of the overwhelming bullish bias. We know the masses are rarely right and if so, not for long, as the market has not dropped as of yet, we are building the pressure needed to do just that. So, be careful long term.

I have not been trading the last week and half of so, but did take a few trades here and there, but nothing to big. I will likely either start up tomorrow or Monday and expect the action to be pretty good for at least two weeks as we get closer to Christmas. I would love to see this market hold up, even though I am predominantly bearish in the daily’s.  I will try and show some of the low risk market entries on the S&P emini futures  for a weekend post and if I trade tomorrow those too. So until then, good trading, Vince.

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Market News | No Comments »

Market Pressure Building for the Next Move

Sunday, November 21st, 2010

This post is for Friday’s session as we saw a fairly stable day in the index’s with the S&P flat and the Dow up 22.

In Thursdays post, I made a pretty big prediction as I see the potential for a large market decline greater than any time since this last April when at that time we were sitting around S&P 1200.  Within three days we saw the bulk of a drop coming off the highs with a -150 S&P points intraday drop. I don’t know if we will see price action like that at this time, but we are and will be setting ourselves up for a market decline very soon. I had hoped for a move back up to the highs and this week, we could see that. I will tell you a few numbers to watch for in Monday’s session and they are, 1193 on S&P futures. If we break that price area, we will likely see some aggressive selling. The next area of support and critical level is S&P futures 1180.  So, on the downside those are the numbers to stay above if this market is going to keep its short term momentum going. All of this is just short term if we stay above those levels.

Typically, the next few days are historically very bullish for the Stock Market in general. So, a move back up to the highs can not be ruled out. I do see in the night trading, Sunday evening, 10:38 pm, that the S&P is up 7 points, so a gap higher is possible on the open and we have seen plenty of gaps closed quickly the last few weeks. This is one of those days that a gap higher starts the day off, followed by the gap getting filled and a continued break down. Again, 1193 is the first line in the sand for Mondays session.

The market psychology has shifted and their are now new concerns. I mentioned in Thursdays blog that the Bullish Sentiment jumped about 8% and put us in the danger zone at 56% bullish.  A reading of 55% or greater is typically a trigger point for a possible shift in the opposite direction. In addition, the Bearish market sentiment has dropped to only 20% and is also a trigger point in reverse.  That means that only 20% of the professional stock market newsletter writers are Bearish as of Tuesday afternoon last week. That is a very small minority and will prove to the masses yet again that the majority is rarely ever right about market direction. This shift in sentiment does not mean that a drop will happen tomorrow, although now with this change, it most certainly can. We could build on this for a little longer creating something bigger. Being aware of this is essential and why I point it out.

This is something to be aware of and that is why I am writing about it. Most traders have no idea of these numbers and how to use them. I am sharing them with you so you will not be taken by surprise.

I trade off of small time frames in the context of a single days action. Following the daily market is a good exercise and fun to write about since so many traders and investors follow the daily market to some degree.

So, don’t let the market take you by surprise. The short term momentum is up, but that could change with the numbers I gave above. As I mentioned, I would like to see the market move back up the 1220 area and give everyone a few more days of gains for a nice Thanksgiving Holiday. It would be quite a surprise and an even bigger possible set up for the coming shift.

Tuesday a new poll will come out from these newsletter writers and if we get the typical pre Thanksgiving rally, it will only draw more people in to the false hope of recovery. Sorry to be so blunt, but I don’t see any substantial recovery in the economy. You may find this site interesting, its called www.shadowstats.com. It shows more closely what some of the real economic numbers are and thus the economy.

I have been taking some time off from trading.  The trade volume is only good early on, so, if you don’t trade early, be prepared for slow going.  In a slow market, it is easy to make mistakes as everything takes just to long to set up and can try even the most patient trader. Pre Holiday volume is typically light and it gets lighter as the week gets closer to Thursday. Tomorrow, I will likely show the same kind of chart (weekly) from the last 10 years as I did from the the 1930’s in Thursdays blog.

Good Trading to all and trade safe.      Vince.

Tags: , , , ,
Posted in Market Call | No Comments »

Bull Market Move Still on Course

Wednesday, November 3rd, 2010

Today is Wednesday, November 3rd and the bull market move is still on course with a new high breaking the 1193 S&P I had been calling for, closing at 1197.

The surprise was to the upside as I had been saying as the market closed above the important S&P number of 1193.  I know a lot of people thought we would go down, but it rarely ever happens the way most people think it will.

The Election is virtually over and the Federal Reserve did do the “Quantitative Easing” they had talked about. Their will be at least 600 Billion dollars used to buy up Treasury Notes over the next 12 months with another few hundred Billion as a back up if they need to. I can’t for life of me, see how anyone thinks this is a good thing. It is manipulation and sends the wrong message to the world. Various countries are now raising interest rates to keep inflation down, but the U.S. is pushing for a much higher inflation rate by doing this. Well, I won’t get into the argument and I am sure people can make anything sounds good if they want to try and prove a point, but I don’t think its a good thing. The markets will eventually agree, but, I guess not just yet.

A double dip recession is just around the corner in my opinion. I would love to see it pushed out as long as possible just like everyone else, but all the stimulus in the world is not going to fix the problems the country has. The Republican House now elected is not going to save us. Well, again, too deep a subject right now.

I do see higher prices in the index’s coming, mostly because no one else thinks they will. Support has been tested and retested and then tested again and it holds. We are up above the well established resistance now and all one can do is wait and see if we have follow through. Many times at a market top, you will see a spike to new highs and then a quick drop off. That is to get the weak hands to invest at the top so the strong hands have liquidity to get out. Big institutions take a long time to unwind positions. It can be weeks, before they get the market to absorb their inventory without spooking anyone in the process. So, we will see how much more this market has.

As of last week the market sentiment was sitting in total neutral ground, creating the possibility of more room before a market extreme is reached. I did a video a few days back on it and is posted in one of my recent blogs, pretty interesting I would say. Anyway, their is still a lot of pessimism floating around and that can mean more fuel to continue the advance. I was looking for S&P 1220 since the bottom of this leg and we are getting pretty close. Going back to the market sentiment, I will be able to see the release for tomorrows blog. Those numbers are out today, but I won’t be able to see them until tomorrow. A reading of 35% or less is very bullish, and a reading of 55% or more is considered very bearish. We were at 45% as of  last weeks reading and there for two weeks in a row, right in the middle. A increase for tomorrow and another next week if we continue to rally will be getting us closer to that top in the market everyone is trying to find.

In today’s trading I took 4 trades, all gains as the market was getting closer to come to life at 11 am West Coast. The afternoon session had a  punch to it as the Fed announcement came in around 11:15 am.  Trading on Fed Day can be hazardous to your wealth, but it can be done if you know how to handle yourself. All of my entries had no back wash to them. That is a new term I just made up, as I was thinking of how best to describe it, (LOL with my own self). Where prices don’t come back against you, is the best feeling, because you know you are hitting the hole, where demand is great. You have enough time to get in, get filled and prices give you and instant gratification, that is what I always shoot for, but you need volume and today we had it.

There is something to it, to be able to make it happen again and again. That does not happen by accident or by getting lucky. It happens by understanding how prices work in a synergistic fashion as well as a reflection of past data. The moves get reflected back onto the market as that expression.  I am able to see moves coming as data is building. It is something that can be taught and I teach it to those interested.

Tomorrow is again a new day, what ever happens, up / down and or sideways market I am confident I will be able to get at least a few points. Until then, I wish all my readers the very best in their pursuits. If you need help or just want a little advise on what you are doing, I am always available to try and help. You don’t have to be a student of mine to ask a few questions about your own trading and how it could be better. I don’t pressure anyone to sign up for this or that. That is not my style and I don’t need to do that anyway. That would defeat my purpose. I like to help traders where I can. I wont’ be able to reveal my trading method in full, but I can possibly help give you idea’s and redirect you to a clearer path. Good Trading to all,   Vince.

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in Bull Market | No Comments »

S&P and Dow in Position to Move Higher

Sunday, October 31st, 2010

This post is for Fridays market October 29th, 2010 as the S&P gets into position to move and close above 1193.

Well, that is my opinion and not investment advise, but I now see the market ready to push out of this range. We may see yet another gap opening on Monday as the S&P futures are very active + 6 points as I write this. This early move higher right now, does not really mean anything as we saw every day last week show us gap openings on to see the market reverse and move lower. A gap lower to only see the market close the gap and move higher. All in all, we have not seen any market movement for the last 13 trading sessions. That is about to change as I see the price action getting ready to move out as stated.

I did a little video that I posted on U-Tube and will post it below this article. There I show how I used market sentiment and price action to identify daily market turns. This is not anything earth shattering, but applying simple market psychology and an understanding of time and space as it relates to the trading markets. Time is a very important element of trading and always needs to be factored into any trading method.

The market establishes a base camp so to speak and when its time to move, all the troops move at once. Some will stay behind only to catch up later and still other will never make it in the advance, difficulties in participation. The point is, a good  advance forward always starts from a strong base. A retreat is in order at times to regroup, but then another advance against new high ground is often quickly followed.

Currently the long advance looks like it may be tired and in need of a retreat. That may be the logical move but their are other factors shaping up in the market place. We are approaching the 1st of the month and you will more often than not see strong market advances during the first three days or so of the month. While not reading anything more into that and if you go back in time and check that out, like say, about 80 or 90 years; you will see that there is some strong correlation to what I am saying. Often times when something is found out to show strong consistent results and it is made public, then and only then does it seem to stop working,( example Dogs of the Dow).  Well, for some reason, this one has not and it is something to just keep in the back of your mind as a market dynamic that often times will come into play. (Tomorrow is November 1st)

Next point, we have an election in just a few days, perfect timing for those in control to give the market a helping hand and keep the people happy for just a spell longer. This is a factor, at least it is to me. A large market sell off is not the kind of message “Those People” want to send, so look for a nice helping hand from where ever it will come from to boost the market into new high ground.

Next point, we are only in the middle of the market sentiment range currently at 45%. The last time we saw a similar market wave was this February to May. A very similar percentage move lasting a similar amount of time and a very similar market top lasting better than two weeks, before that market fell hard, fast and furious. The market sentiment just before the drop was sitting at a bullish extreme which acts in the opposite direction and is actually considered very bearish. The professional market newsletter writers inform their subscribers of what to expect in the days and weeks ahead and then I would guess the public makes their play, with most often being wrong. I don’t see anything professional about that. The point is, with a similar play in place and the market sitting on a perfect “time play” as talked about above, we can look for things to get heated up. There is 10% more or 50% of the range to see market extremes of 55. (The range is 35 to 55 )  Again we are sitting at 45, right in the middle and enough room for us to see the 1220 longer term target I forcasted two months ago at the bottom.

Next point, we had a nice “inside trading day” on Friday, which means the market was bound between Thursdays high and low for the session. This adds even more power for a power move once the upper and or lower barriers are breached. With the night trading up a bit right now, it does not mean a whole lot by itself but in light of all the other points I am making, will likely have greater significance and maybe the possible gap opening that does not come back?

Seeing all of these and other factors ahead of time, I calculated that it was worth taking a chance to leave my position open from Friday and try and ride through the highs and lows of that session to take advantage of what I am writing about now. So, we wait and see.

Good Trading to all, Vince

Tags: , ,
Posted in Market Call | No Comments »

Market Ready for Continued Advance

Sunday, October 17th, 2010

This post is for Friday’s session as the market is still showing strength in the midst of bad news.

On Friday, the market bounced off of some very strong support, in the Dow and S&P 500. Once that support was touched, it reversed back up off that figure showing a sign of strength. The S&P futures closed strong into the close showing gains for the day. Currently the S&P futures are off in the night trading as of 8:40 pm Sunday evening West Coast.

Often, you will see prices off in the early session only to close the gap and move higher. I think that is exactly what will happen in Monday’s session. If Friday’s low gets taken out, scratch that, as we will need to hold Friday’s established support and I think we will.

The market is in a good position to continue its advance. We have had three days of sideways movement giving the market a chance to catch up with itself. I have talked many times about “Time and Price”, as they go hand in hand. After a very large run up or run down, you will see a choppy market as the time factor gets kicked into gear. Time to digest its gains or losses and re-establish value as the market participants see it. We don’t need to question its moves, but only to interpret them and trade accordingly.

So, back to the daily charts as I was saying, we have seen three days of sideways action and the market seems a bit determined to move higher. I see a big day coming early on in the week, Monday and Tuesday are likely days.

The market sentiment moved up again last week by a 2% putting it at 47.2%.  It has been moving slowly right with this advance a little at a time and we are now past the mid-way point looking at the other end of the extreme. We are not their yet and will need to see 55%+ Bullishness to be on guard for a market drop of significance. By the pattern covering the last 7 weeks or so, this number has been slowing creeping up with the advance and is acting very typical as far as I see. I have set a target weeks ago of around 1220 + on the S&P futures and we are not that far away from it. We could see 1200 in the early part of this week very quickly.

The only way to get the bulls to continue to shift their opinion to get bullish the stock market, is for the market to continue to advance. I can see the resistance ahead as clear as day. I saw it many weeks ago, even before the market moved out of its base at the end of August in the 1040 area. I can’t say for certain as in this game, nothing is certain, but the odds favor a continued advance to the numbers stated, which is just my opinion.

We are coming up to the mid term elections which are only weeks away. This would tie in with my target area getting hit and the gas coming out of the market at that time. Their will be a good excuse, I am sure. It could even be the looming  “Foreclosure Banking crisis” that is just ticking like, well, you know what.

This rally is a big draw to get the public and anyone else who thinks that they missed it again, to jump on board. Time will tell as I am sure a lot of people are confused that the market did not go down in September and October, typically the worst two months out of the year. Once the public catches on, the market will throw you a curve ball and take you out. That is what is happening the last two months. Once everyone gets cleared out of the shorts and the public gets long,  only then will the market drop, my opinion, for what ever its worth.

No trading for me on Friday, but hope to get back into things this week. Its been a light trading schedule for me the last week and did OK considering my limited trading time.

I will post on Monday after the markets are closed for sure, so come on back and see what I have to say, until then, Good Trading to all.

Vince

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Market Call | No Comments »

New Highs for the Market again, market call on target!

Tuesday, October 12th, 2010

Today is Tuesday October 12th, 2010 and we are seeing higher prices with more to come as the market pulls an about face off of a premarket sell-off.

We saw a big reversal today with the market recovering all of the gap that we saw on the open and then some. I did have the gap clearly in my mind as the morning session was getting under way. I missed several good crystal clear trades after the open and started my day with a 1 point S&P futures loss. Came back just after with an OK entry for a three point gains, followed by a small scalp trade to finish the day. I did have a flat trade after that, but had to leave the room for a moment to long before I could take 1 point off, my original plan. I ended that trade flat as stated, but ended the day up for a modest daily goal.

Nothing to exiting there today, as I have been taking off early and have not had much screen time the past week. This will continue into the rest of this week as I have a few other things going on. I will try and get a few points before I take off but that is how my days are going right now. It will change back to having a bit more time to settle into the trading session and do some training video’s for my students, but I have to take one day at a time right now. Next week will be more settled for me. ( I guess out of default, I will be showing my trades for a while until I can come up with something else in a different time frame or something different, not decided)

It was nice to see that the market ended the day on high note. I know their is so much bad news out their that what is happening within the markets, does not seem to exactly reflect the current financial environment.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Foreclosure-freeze-could-apf-3924319053.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

Their was a ton of fraud going on in the mortgage industry and it was not going to come out good for the home owner. Their can be a lot of finger pointing and blame to go around, on both sides, but the fact is, the mortgage industry has shut down basically all foreclosures on homes until they can get a handle on what is happening. This is bad news long term, but it is not so bad right now. This all plays into my theory of an expanding market until some event or catalyst kicks into gear. That will take the market down fast and furious, but just not yet. We are building into that as we speak, with the market moving into an area that will yet again captivate the public to invest again. They will not see what is coming as usual and get hurt again.

The market sentiment will give you the sign as to when this fleecing will be rip for the fraudsters to start the cycle all over again. Right now, they are drawing the public and any other, willing to buy into this rally. So, buyer beware is the story of the day. Their is likely more to go as I do see higher prices coming. I put out a few numbers last month and updated that last week and we are getting closer every day to hitting it. I will do a recap over the weekend on what I think and where we are in the cycle. This is all readable as I so often do, read the market. It can be done on  daily charts, hourly, minutes, or any other measure of movement, like tick charts, volume charts or range charts, all of which are pretty popular to traders.

So I will pick it up tomorrow and go from their.   Good Trading to all, from Vince

Tags: , , , ,
Posted in Bull Market | No Comments »

Market on Course for higher prices

Saturday, October 9th, 2010

Today’s post is for Friday’s session October 8th, 2010 as the market continues to defy all logic and climb higher, +57 points on the Dow, +4 points on the S&P futures.

The market continued its climb higher as we moved into new high ground. Last week and before, I talked a lot of market direction and it was nice to see the expected resolve to the upside. It could have gone down, but their were far more things showing me higher prices. That was totally the unconventional market call, I know, but reading the current price action in what ever the time frame is possible. Having an understanding of market sentiment can help a lot if you also know how to interpret it. With that said, anyone following me for any length of time knows that I have been bullish for months now, from the very market bottom of 1040 and with a confirmation at 1060 on the S&P. That is 120 points from the bottom and 100 points from the confirmation point.

Calling for a market bottom and reversal up in late August was not a popular call and I remember feeling a little uneasy about it back then, but I had seen this scenario a hundred times if not more over the years in the daily and weekly charts. Taking the unpopular stand in not easy, but that is why most people loose money in the markets. As traders, we need to really think for ourselves and understand why we do what it is we do. It is in understanding our positions, where we come to really learn how to trade.

In the market sentiment numbers I follow, they moved up 2.3% this week to 45.6%. That is basically a neutral reading, but that does not mean that the market is going to stall. There is still room for it to gradually move higher and given its pattern of increasing sentiment a couple of percentage points per week, a continued move higher in prices and overall bullish sentiment is likely. I am looking for prices of S&P 1125 or higher in the weeks to come and the Dow, I see moving up to 11,700 or higher. We will just have to wait and see how it all turns out and how much higher if any we go, but that is the likely path of prices at this time.

A lot of people are calling for a market crash and that might come, but I don’t think it will just quite yet. I will let everyone know when that time will come, so stay turned if you care to know my opinion on market direction.

I missed a couple of days trading this week, Wednesday and Thursday, but was able to trade on Friday. I had a lot of preparation to do before what some are calling for, “a long hard winter” in the mountains of Northern California.

My trades from Friday are below which was a pretty good day. I had only one small loss on the last trade, but picked up some nice moves before that making for a nice day.

If anyone has questions please feel free to email. I will more than happy to answer and or help you where I can. If you want formal training we can do that too, but if you just need a little free advise, I am open to helping those that ask for it. If you have Skype that is the best way to talk and if it can be handled through email that will work too. My Skype name is “SniperDayTrading”.

So enjoy the weekend and get outside while you still can, before the bit of Winter sets in.  Good Trading to all, Vince

P.S.   My indicators are not the trading method. They are only a tiny reflection of what I can show you. Their is a complete trading methodology behind every move and one that can be duplicated time and time again. In fact you can trade the Sniper Day Trading method without any indicators at all and do well.  We teach how to read price action in what ever time frame you trade, but have a set of three main time frames we start out in depending on volume and volatility. This chart is the smallest one of the three but I have a unique way of integrating them all so it really becomes just one chart.

Tags: , , ,
Posted in market recap | No Comments »

« Older Entries