Posts Tagged ‘Market Consolidation’

Trading With A Business Plan

Tuesday, March 30th, 2010

Today is Tuesday, March 30th and the markets are marking a little time.

We are almost running out of room on the market here, maybe one more day or two max to see what the market has in store for us. There are some key unemployment numbers coming out on Friday and it would not surprise me to see the market wait for those numbers to trade off of.

In the market sentiment area, we moved up again last week, about +2%, getting closer to that 55% area, currently 49%,  where we will likely see a reversal of this move up. It all depends in how the market handles the move up. Originally, when the market got to the 1120 area a place where I was looking at, we backed off, but only to come back up off that. I could see that this market had a little more left in it a few weeks back. I did call for a reversal rally, but I did get a little weak in the knees so to speak. Non the less, the market did continue to rally and here we are.It would appear that the market has more to move up, so don’t take any strong stands on market direction short just yet. Let it do its work and assess it on the way.

In today’s market action, we saw a slow market, below average on the futures contract volume. I have not traded the last few days as I was taking some time off traveling with my wife. I did get into it late today for two trades. The first one was for 1.25 & 2.00 points, first trade and the second one was for +1.00, 1.25 points and .25 points. All gains for session. I took only one tick of heat on the first trade and two ticks of heat on the second trade. I usually only run a 4 tick stop on all trades, which gives me the ability to keep my losses small and at times get some pretty good little runs.

As I was talking about trading within your dominant personality in my last post, it took me a long time to find out that I am a scalper by nature. That is my dominant personality while trading. I do not have a great amount of patients, so I make that work for me, instead of fighting it. Trading the way that I do, works great for me. I only see myself getting better and some time this year I will set off on a journey to live a large part of my dream. I have been holding back on taking this journey for a few reasons and in future posts I will explain more, but I am preparing to do what I have posted on my website in the business plan section. Top right hand corner, home page. It shows a possible scenario of gradually increasing your contract size to bring in the equivalent of 1 million dollars in a year trading for only two points most days as a base target goal.

I am not in a hurry to start this, but I will set off on my journey some time this year. I find it very rewarding  in helping a few traders meet there goals in the mean time, while I continue to get my own personal act together. All of the things I write in my blog are really for me and I learn each day I write and am exposed to new experiences in the market. This is all in preparation for me to take this million dollar journey, but to do so, a trader needs experience, screen time as well as all of the mental conditioning that comes with the trip. Teaching, explaining, showing and talking about my personal trading method, gives me the floor to refine and execute my strategies. It has proven to be a winner as I have seen while sharing it with others.

So, as the days and weeks unfold, I am in training so to speak for my own personal market journey and dream. It is easier to trade with small size as I am currently doing, but this is only temporary. Trading three to five contracts is a lot easier than trading 20, 30 or 40 contracts. Being well capitalized makes this venture a little easier and another reason for my delay. When the time is right, some time this year, I will do just what I am saying. Starting with only one contract and increasing my size to reflect what I talk about on my website. If I can do it as I write, others can do it too. To make a million dollars a year trading is not easy, but I do believe deep inside that I can do it. It really is no different than what I do every day that I trade now, pick up 2-4 points a day. Doing it with large size is something I have yet to prove.

It is a lot of fun and I do enjoy teaching and exposing myself to new reads, patterns and market conditions. I don’t think I have shared this before, but this gives you a little insight into my large overall plan within “Sniper Day Trading”.

I hope to bring value to my readers and members all along the way, so stay tuned, it is going to be a great year.

Two Scalp Trades – Market Awaiting Unemplyment Data

S&P 500 building base for move up next week

Friday, January 23rd, 2009

Well, its been a little while since my last post and I am glad to be back. The Holidays were a bit more time consuming this year than they normally are.

The market has been holding on to its retracement level in the S&P 500, just above 800.  Back in December, I said that 800 needed to hold to remain in the uptrend we have been trying to put in. So far so good.  The market moved up about 15% from that call and then back down.  It is now at the breaking point and needs to move up from this short term consolidation of the last week.  There is an outside trend line on the daily charts that needs to be broken to the upside for the uptrend to take hold.  This right now is acting as resistance, but once that gets broken to the upside, the path will be cleared for higher prices.  I will post a chart of what I mean, so take a look below and check it out. 

This week the bullish sentiment dropped and that is good for the bulls.  The more people that think the market is not going up the better chance it has to do just that.  Now the reading is 38% with a reading of 35 as very bullish. It had gotten up to 43% and just this week has backed off to 38.  The market could base for a few more days getting the bears to bite on the downside theory.  The new numbers come out on Tuesday of this coming week.  If those numbers fall to below 35%, we have a very good chance to rally 10 to 20 % for the overall market. 

Unfortunately, if this happens, I believe it will be short lived and will set itself up for another big drop, making fresh new lows.  Not a pretty picture, I know, and I don’t like to think that way, but the way I think is not going to change the market.  In past recessions, this would be the turning point to buy and the recovery will be first seen in the stock market, before anyone else realizes it.  The market always looks out 6 months to a year in the future and if it smells a recovering economy, it will rally in anticipation of the reality.  On the other hand, it will also know if it (the economy) is still on the ropes and going down for another beating, which is what I expect to happen after this rally.  The market will do what it has to do in order to draw in new money,  getting people to bite on a recovery scenario, only then to be gored by the bear trap.  So be careful out there and plan ahead. 

As far as daytrading is concerned, as I have said before, it does not matter what the market does, going up or down.  We position ourselves to take a few small pieces out of the market and hit our daily goal of at least 2 points + on the S&P 500 per day.  It may not sound like a lot, but it adds up nicely when you get it every day and gradually add to your position size.  Below are some of the trades I have recently taken to show what I mean as well as the long term S&P 500 daily chart that I mentioned earlier.  I may post again before Monday, have a great week end.

Vince

http://screencast.com/t/3bdutjDWE    some of today’s live trades

http://screencast.com/t/bcOk1lFX3     some of today’s trades with commentary

http://screencast.com/t/jJJ7nwxws     daily chart with notations