Posts Tagged ‘Market Call’

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Market call still on course

Monday, October 24th, 2011

Today is Monday October 24th, 2011 and today, I will post Fridays trades and today’s trades below to start, with a few comments about the current rally.

First this is today’s trades below, with just under an hour of trading start to finish. The early morning hour had some good moves to it on the upside, as I came in as things were slowing down a bit. I tried to take what I could from the market and it worked out with 4 out of 5 positive trades for a pretty easy daily goal today.

On the one loss, I came in early and did not want to give the market more room and got stopped out -5 ticks.  I did re-enter at one tick better, for some gains, but was really just waiting for the long move which I saw was the bigger point trade. That proved to be right and so the days gains were in and time to go.

Friday, I had another daily trading goal met as well, but my first trades were off for no good reason other than it was just me who was off. I did come back with a few nice trades short but took me a little better than 2 hours. Unfortunately, I started late and was stuck with slow market action for a while and worked with what I had. Again, it turned out OK as shown in the screen shot below. If you click on the charts twice it will blow up for a full size view.

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The market has continued to bring shock and amazement to Wall Street with continued gains into much higher levels. I had been calling for this rally to continue and it sure has all the way from the bottom.

Everyone was calling for a crash weeks ago, but I was not. I did say that we would be looking at these higher prices just before the bottom and just after the bottom of S&P 1075. Currently we are at low 1250’s and hit a first of two strong resistance area’s I recently called. Today’s move satisfies the first one and we will have to see if the upper one keeps going but it is there.  There is resistance, but the market is swallowing it up to only push higher. The next stiff resistance area the market may be drawing itself up to is the mid to upper S&P 1270’s and as high as 1280 itself. That is extreme but it can’t be overlooked. Under normal circumstances, a pull back from the current levels would normal and natural, so be aware of that. The price action will have to dictate from here.

The market and world is somewhat on the edge and it is not generally a happy time, but all we can do is take it one day at a time. Long term, all the refinancing in Europe and elsewhere is only prolonging the day of reckoning. I am a long term bear, but just not yet.

In 2012, I would expect highly volatile  market conditions as things churn. More to come on that in the months ahead.

That’s it for now, sometime this week, I will continue where I left off in discussing market psychology and the day trader, until then good trading to all.

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Follow up on Market Calls

Monday, September 26th, 2011

Today is Monday September 26th, 2011 and want to do a follow up to the market calls recently made.

First let me post my trades from today and will keep my comments short unlike Friday’s post.

I have been getting up a little later and so missing the early parts of the sessions recently, but that is not always bad. It gives a little insight into what is happening and what may continue to happen as things move along.

I took 4 trades total, 2 were for pretty good gains, with one for a small loss and one nearly flat. An average day with only 45 minutes invested trading and a little better than 50 minutes in follow the market. From that stand point a perfect day.

I gave myself a B- grade as my second trade had poor placement but good overall direction still. The short did not produce within the time it should have and just exited nearly flat. I added on 1 and that one had -1 tick. The last long, I did not get filled at the high tick and exited at my increased stop, close but no cigar. I may have been a little harsh on my grade, but I can’t change that now. An easy day overall with little struggle.

The afternoon session I did live video’s for my group and called out several entries on the way to a 1155 target that I was talking about in my Friday post and in my video’s.

I stated in Friday’s post that we should see 1155 within the morning session or unless we get it in the premarket. I should have took that a little farther as we did see the best part of a 25 point S&P call to 20.75 points a couple hours before the open.

The next part could have pushed that completion to the afternoon session of which we did complete that call right at the end of day with a point or two to spare. I could see that early on and choose to talk about it in a recorded training session with my group.  I showed them all the reasons why that was the likely target for the session and it was nice to see it come to pass.

The next follow up call I made yesterday in regards to the metals was that Silver was going to continue to fall until 26.50 and that would be a great area to buy as a long term hold. Well, the metal did drop an additional 10%+ in just that one session and hit $ 26 and change and reversed course all the way back up to the $30 area. Wow, that was fast.

The point there would be that the market respected the numbers that the method identified with great confidence. I would expect that low to hold even if we back fill a little lower from here. If anyone can buy physical silver at the upper 20’s area, that I believe would be a great long term buy. I expect the metals to do well for the next few years and reaching well over 100 per ounce.

We have some work to do currently to get things turned around which at this time we have not yet done, but am expecting big things in the next 12-18 months. It is a great alternative than  just letting cash sit in the bank and or participating in the Treasury market. A portion of ones assets in metals is prudent even with the volatility. Time here will heal many woes.

As far as the Stock Market in general, I believe we have put in a tradable bottom and higher prices overall I feel can be expected. That is not a popular opinion just as I wrote that on Friday when the market was 272 Dow points lower. It takes a lot of courage to make a call like I did, but when you know what you can expect from the market as per my trading method, which is very unique, it is in reality not that hard to do.

I can be wrong at times and I did in part get the final target on my last S&P call coming up short, but that is trading. I will get many more right than I will get wrong and if one trades with good trade management, partial profits should be taken while on the way to the full target.

This is all in the daily market that I am talking about, of which I don’t really trade but look at and many others do as well. I like to follow and call that out because so many follow it and it is an easy way to point out that my trading method works in various time frames as my members can testify.

The other part is that this is really just for me. To exercise my skills to call market turning points in the daily market, the hourly market and on down to various tick charts. The method works across various time frames and is customizable to the trader who is flexible.

I have more to say, but will save it for tomorrow, until then, good trading to all.

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Another Spot On Market Call

Tuesday, August 30th, 2011

Still on vacation till after labor day, but will post a larger chart of the days turns. At the bottom of the post, I will put up yesterdays market turns, again, this is a larger trade structure than I trade, but it can be traded by those members who choose to.

Another spot on market call;  Last Monday, 8-22-11, in my blog posting, I called for the market to hold in the current area, and rally. At the time, the close was S&P 1123. A confirmation to the first target will be triggered when 1140 is broken and it hit that next morning. I said that we would soon see 1220 on the S&P with that rally and today, towards the end of the day, we hit the target 1220.10.  Then we saw an immediate price rejection of the target and prices reversed immediately in the last few minutes of the day.

Calling the daily market is no different than calling the hourly, 5 minute, or any size tick or range chart. It is all the same as the stock market is fractal in nature in relationship to different sized charts. The moves are proportionate to your risk at each level. In addition, less trades are generated when you increase your time frame.

I don’t trade the larger time frames, but I always look at them even if I am just scalping for points. It is a lot less work as you increase you time horizon as well.  Many traders search for what is there dominant time frame, short term, intermediate, long term. Each of these are and can be different for every trader, but I feel you should trade in line with your dominant trading personalilty.

As you do, you will not be fighting the process with either over-trading or under-trading, as that will be apart of your trading strategy. You only have to stick to your plan and excel in what you do.

When trading, you have to create a frame work to work from. Market structure is built and price is and can be projected through three elements, time, space and energy.

I have written about this before, but it might be worth repeating. It all boils down to understanding and building that frame work or market structure. The three elements mentioned above are all apart of that frame work and that is what gives you the edge.

The elements when understood, in conjunction with each other, can show you exactly where price will go in many instances and a likely time for its arrival as well. This can be done with small tick charts while targeting 2 points on the S&P and or a higher time frame view for 10 points or more. You will always have to invest more time for the larger moves and your exposure is increased, for the shear fact that you are in the market, but that may be a traders style, to trade less and shoot for that higher profit/loss ratio.

I have trained myself to trade for short targets usually in the 1-5 point target range and that will depend on market volitility. I always trade at a minimum of a one to one trade ratio and have a daily stop out point so that I will never get a blow out day where losses are off the charts.  I like to get a daily target that is close to what my daily stop out point will be for any one trading session.

This is like having a 1 to 1 profit/loss ratio as it relates to the trading session. Having a loosing day of 3-4 S&P points will be overcome by just one normal regular session of gains that is equal to that. So, if you take a loss for the session, the next session puts you right back at where you were before the loss and you don’t look back.

I do look for on occasion those days where price action is telling me to take the easy and obvious trades for much bigger gains and point values. There, on those days, I can come away with 3 times an average daily goal, but I never really go looking for those days. They just come to me and I go with it.

It is a good idea to not trade for more than two hours at one time. Traders don’t really realize this, but there brain will begin to slow down, and the high level of concentration necessary to capitalize will get lost. There, is where traders get into trouble. Trying to come back when they are not at peak concentration levels. Mix in a little emotion and you have a receipit for disaster.

This is the area, traders fail to hold it together. Many don’t really understand why they put on the trades that they do, as when in this distructive mode, only until after the dust settles and they look on in horror.

How do you stop that from happening in the first place? That is a question I would bet thousands of traders would like to know the answer for. I will only give you a very basic answer to this at first and may continue it in my next post, but much of that behavior and losses, could be eliminated by only trading for smaller blocks of time.

If you are a position trader still within the course of the day, then you need to wait hours at times, for your one or two trades a day. There is not a lot you can do, since your trading opportunities don’t come often, but in the case of much smaller time traders, you need to zero in all your energy into a small block of time and get your points there. When you stay to long, out of greed, or any other reason, you are often times asking for it.

Traders will never understand every twist and turn of the market, but we need to weed out that which we do understand and capitalize on that and just leave the rest. Always trade the easy and obvious is a motto I say all the time, that will serve us all well as we trade our way through the markets.

Good Trading to all, Vince.            Monday’s larger picture view below!

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New Market Call

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

We are in a new market call I mentioned in my Monday post. I said that if we get above 1140 that we were going to see a good follow through in the coming days for prices to get up into as high as 1220 to 1250 area.

Currently on Monday we were at 1123 on the close and we now stand at 1175 or so at today’s close. So, in two days we moved up more than 50 S&P points which is about 500 Dow points on average.

The market could have tanked on Tuesday, but I thought the path for at least the short term was going to go the other way and said that. Over a week ago, I called the market top and the drop to a tie and explained it all to members in the daily training I send out. I said then that the market was likely to hold in the 1120 area and we would see a large bounce up with follow through for some huge gains to the upside.

So far so good and the rally continues. One thing I will point out right now is, the market sentiment took a big change. From yesterdays poll in “investors Intelligence” market survey, the bears jumped over 10 percent. They were only 23 % of the Professional Market News Letter Writers that were bearish a very small number and that jumped up over 10% to 33%.  That number had been stuck there for a long time and to see movement finally, is significant. In addition, the bullish camp dropped from a neutral area 46% down to 40%. This was coming off a 300 point rally in the Dow of which they must think it is a sucker rally and has no legs.  There weekly poll is on the close of every Tuesday. The closer it gets to 35%, will represent a full on buy signal in most cases.

We are not there yet, but maybe we are not going to see an extreme. Maybe  its just enough to get the bears to bit and get caught on a large snap back rally. That may be the case and so we will see.

I am on vacation right now, but still taking emails and answering questions. Don’t hesitate to make contact if interested and if not, I will be back into the full swing of things after Labor Day.

I have a screen shot of the full day below with a larger time frame and catching the larger swings as this model is set up for.  The method will give any member trader the same entries apart from the indicators all together, but they do a nice job of confirming the moves.

Trade well and committed, Vince

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Recap of Recent Calls Made in Emini S&P

Thursday, May 5th, 2011

Today’s market was a fast mover, with 2.5 + million S&P emini contracts traded. I would like to see the volume and movement continue, but its not up to me.

Last Friday’s posting, I mentioned for the start of the week we were likely to now come under selling pressure over the next few session and we sure have, right on cue. A week before that, also on Friday, for Monday’s market we were like to see market strength that would take us to new highs, exactly as I wrote about over the coming days. So I called the move up to the day spotted the top and we have had four down days in a row.

It is now looking like we may see an intra day new low tomorrow from today’s low and then a reversal up closing at least in the middle or upper half of tomorrows range. Basically, weakness and then a bounce up off the new short term lows to close up better than 50% of the days range. I will try and stay open minded myself and let the price tell me what it wants to do, which is always a good idea.

Yesterday, I posted a tweet on Twitter which I don’t usually do, as I just have it linked to my blog posting as a tweet, but called for the market to sell off 10-11 points into the first 90 minutes of today’s trading session to around 1334. It did just that but went a couple points more to around 1332.  I did try and call a pretend trade with a small 5 tick stop, but the night trading did pop up a little to take that out. We then proceeded down to the area I just mentioned, still not bad at all.

For tomorrow, let just hope we have the volume and movement so we can trade with a little purpose. We shall see. I did not trade yesterday, so I was looking to trade longer or for more of what the market had. I might mention, I did get a little flustered when I did not get on a big move I was looking for. Instead it went the other way and it is totally my fault. I did not look both ways. I had a one track mind and blinded myself of the reality of the trade. I do remember doing that before, but it has been a while. I used to do it more often a few years back and was a big problem. It has a lot to do with so many things, to many to list here now, but maybe over the weekend if I remember, I will write about it.The point, its OK to have market opinions, but don’t be married to it. As it turned out, I was right, but not before it took me out and reversed right to where I was looking for. I usually get those right, but not today. Anyway, I took like 8 trades, 7 were for gains. A few were counter trend in my T-1 screen, so it might look off as far as the indicators as concerned, but it looked right to me in my other screen. I let plenty of trades go by and some for huge moves, but I did pick up double my daily goal so how can I complain.    My trades below.

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Market Call Completed, Exactly

Monday, February 28th, 2011

2-28-11;

In Monday’s opening, we saw the market continue to move up after Friday’s late afternoon slumber. The market call was completed exactly.  I said the Dow was likely to move up about 90 points to catch up with the S&P as it was under-performing in Friday’s session and the S&P since already outperforming would likely move up about 9 S&P points.

Well, that is exactly how it worked out to the tie. Within the first 90 minutes we saw those numbers and they were re-visited later on in the session.

In today’s trading, I gave myself a grade of (B-). I did do pretty good overall, as I took 7 trades and had only 1 lose. The problem was not in the lose, but first the entry short. I did not like the trade, but I took it anyway and tried to get out with less than my original stop and it got away from me. That is not good. I know it happens a lot with traders, but I just don’t like it when I do it. I was doing a training video just before that and I even was saying there that I did not like the trade. O,Well.

I did come back nicely hitting some good trades short. I put a few notes on the screen shot below and my trades for the session are there to see. My timing was good overall and I won’t really complain to much.

I expect the trades I enter to move in my favor right away. If they don’t I am not one to wait around to long. There is a method reason for the exact entries and it has nothing to do with the trading indicators. The trading indicators only reflect what is already at work within the method, but all for different reasons. The indicators are a nice confirmation and they can give some insight, but I believe you need to know why you will enter a trade before you do and it should not be based solely on trading indicators.

Having a solid reason for the trade is essential. If not, you will only be following indicators without the knowledge or the  price action behind it.

Good trade timing  is also essential as you take little heat with positive movement behind you. Traders are not born knowing this stuff, it is either learned through many years of hard work or that time frame can be cut down if someone is there to teach you what works for them and others.

I will cut my post short tonight, but will try and continue with where I left off from my last post on the mental side of trading. There, we all can always better learn about ourselves and thus improve our trading. Until next time, Good Trading to all.

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Another Big Market Call Completed to within one tick

Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010

Today is Wednesday, and we reached another large daily turning point call for +49 S&P points within one tick.

We reached the next target area that I called after the upside target had been reached. We got to 1129 after calling for a rally when we were in the 1050 area with confirmation at 1073. I called for 1122 minimum with the average price 1132. We hit the 1129 as mentioned and then called for another reversal to 1080. Today we hit 1080.25 and moved up 11 S&P points just after that. That was a 49 point move and coming within one tick.  Another two big calls back to back.

Today the Sentiment numbers came out and they actually did not go down to the the trigger point that I was looking for. Again, it drags on and actually shifted back up a few percent to 41.1 % bullish, from 37%. This is not yet a signal for the big move that would surely come after such a signal would produce when given.

Currently I have no move that I see in the large time frames. I will need a day or so to see how the market finishes this move. There could be more to the downside, but just holding on making any new daily market call right now.

I am traveling in the San Francisco Bay Area for the rest of the week and did not trade today. I had a good excuse with the Fed Decision on interest rates today. There is really nothing wrong with not trading on a day like today.

I do have a chart of the last few hours of the day, showing the action after the fed decision. It was not a very spectacular Fed day, but, I did see some indecision in the charts as there was a choppiness to some of the action.

My custom trade indicators are showing exactly where you could have taken a piece out of the markets. Trading for 2-4 points total for a  session is not hard, if you know when to go long or short. Having a guide to help you stay out of the trade is just as important as knowing when to get into one. “Timing” is King, but learning how to trade the price is invaluable. When you have both, you just could be unstoppable. What is that worth to you ?

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Expecting pull back on Monday

Saturday, September 12th, 2009

Today’s trading on Wall Street, was more of the same. A continuation of the up-trend has been the basic pattern, but a breather should be in store for Monday.

I believe we will see a pull back over the next few trading days, but I am trying to not have a STRONG BIAS about it. I will see how the price action lines up and trade out of the smaller time frames to capture at least 2 to 4 points for the day. I am not to worried when I grab only 3 tricks on a trade or even two for that matter. It all depends how I am playing it and what kind of day I think it is going to be. I could have had a couple of big runners, but did pick up one trade for 1 point and 2 points, half and half. When you are able to trade more than one contract at a time, split the trade up and take half off early, it releases the pressure and allows you to be able to stay in longer for that larger point gain.  Today’s trading saw 7 trades all gains with one even trade.

Don’t have much time, I have unexpected guests from out-of-town and need to get going  for now, if I have time to post again before Monday I will.

Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/DDL5Sn7JbB       trading out of the 100 tick, but posting results out of 233 (space)

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Technical Analysis: Video Trading Lesson Today

Thursday, June 4th, 2009

Today is Wednesday, June 3rd and we are starting to get a pull back in the markets.

Today the markets made a nice late rally to recover from a steeper sell off it was seeing earlier in the day. The Dow was only off around 65 points, not too bad. With a close up off the lows, it sets the tone for an early rally tomorrow, but we may not be done to the downside. I

have no predictions on where prices are going at this point. I will tell you that we did hit an upside objective with the 940 S&P number being hit and completed that I had called. We are still in an uptrend, there has not been any damage to the chart and until then, you have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.

There is some heavy resistance at the 940-950 area so that is going to be a very critical area to watch. I previously had in my mind that we would see some kind of a pull back and a lot of people will think this is more of a correction than it really is and start shorting the market. That could be a mistake. A pull back would be normal from here, but everything about this market right now is not normal.

I do  think overall we will see higher prices over the summer, that I am pretty sure about, but be careful, I don’t think it is going to last. By this September and October, we are going to have problems holding on to any meaningful gains going into the end of the year. I am a bear long term and do think the lows on the S&P and Dow are going to get taken out in a very big way. For now enjoy the mini Bull and get some of that 401K money back.

I am a bit cynical about how things are run around the good old USA. I believe the powers that be know exactly what is going on and when any changes are taking place. If you ask yourself, did “THEY” know that the market was going to tank last year?  Here, let me answer that one for you, YES.  Did they know that it was going to turn and when?  I can’t help myself, let me answer that one too, YES.

Our leader came out on the airwaves three days before the bottom on the S&P at (interesting number, I did not pick it) 666. That would make him a pretty good market timer if you ask me. Just three days earlier everyone thought the very worst. After that third day people who took his advice have done really well. I don’t know if anyone knows that, but it’s true.

What if people put a lot of new money in the market and it did not work out? Mr. O would not be looking too good right now and he could not have that.  The reason he could come out and make a stock market call like he did was because, well, you make your own conclusions. We hear that things are getting better and I am all for that, Ya-Ya.  I always say to keep an open mind and think for yourself. This will be one of those times, even as I give my opinion. That is all it is, my opinion.

In today’s trading, I did well, had taken a few small trades early, some up and some down, but saw a very nice high probability trade to capture a big move to the downside. I put it on, took not one tick of heat and picked up 6 & 1/4 points on that trade. I held it for a while which was painful in and of itself. I am not usually in a trade for as long as I was, but I played it for the extended move out of a higher time frame and that is what it gave me. I got in just as the market told me and got out just as it said “get out”. I did give it a few extra ticks of room, just in case it was a fake out. I have a chart of it below.  All in all, 3 times my daily goal. A lot of early trades were split trades with different exits.

Trading Lesson: Below is a short video of how you can use support and resistance by plotting  parallel channels. I cover how you can use them in your trading to give you some possible insight on where prices can go before they get there. It is not a science but it is something that gets played out everyday. Take the insight that I give you here today and check it out on the markets. It may take some time to be able to spot these, but when up and down trends play out, you should be able to apply some of these ideas to give you an edge.

Technical analysis is the study of price movement through patterns, support and resistance, and general price fluctuations. You can draw conclusions as prices move from one area of support to another area of resistance and use that information to trade accordingly. Even if you spot these patterns, you still have to know how to play it, with low risk entries in mind.  Check back for more insight and ideas.   Anyone interested in learning more please feel free to email me. I will do my best to answer your questions.

http://www.screencast.com/t/LuSFBV59R Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/3bLxmtzYZI One of today’s trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/HMBxbNpJ7 Trading lesson, 5 minute video

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Bear Market rally continues

Wednesday, March 18th, 2009

Today is Tuesday March 16th and the last hour shows strength

The market had some good moves today in both directions. I saw a couple of 5 point sell off’s and a couple of 3 point sell off’s that were very clear. The moves on the upside had more room in them, especially in the late afternoon. I saw a couple of 5 point moves to the upside and a couple of 10 point moves as well. I had some of both to pick up my daily goal plus. Todays total was over $ 2,000, but I traded a little higher contract size of 5 to 8 to get it.

I had a little misstep in the early going but was able to recover. It was a mis-trade that cost me, but I was able to make up for it in the late afternoon in one of the nice rallies upwards that we had. I had manually put my stop in, but placed the order in the wrong direction adding to a loss, I traded my way through it and had some nice returns at the end of the day.

I have posted a chart of the hourly S&P and daily Dow. Yesterday I called the initial resistance top of the S&P and it was good for a very large move to the downside. Today’s open took the market up, back to the middle of yesterday’s range, selling off a couple of times on the way up. It wasn’t until the last hour that the market decided to advance up through the overhead resistance and push its way higher, it did not take me long to figure out that the market was strong and decided to go with it for some nice gains.

It is only in reading the charts that we can make a true determination on the current market direction. That is day trading “one O one”. It’s nice to call big directional changes and a lot of times they work out, but to place all of your market calls on what has not happened in the future is not wise, while day-trading. We are only trying to capture a few points in either direction with the prevailing direction being of no consequence. Trading up is just as good as trading down.

I will point out that the sentiment numbers did come out last week and they were only 26% bullish at -3% and 47 bearish at +3%.  So last week people became less bullish and more bearish. I think that is adding to the rally we are having. These readings are currently very bullish for the market and we are seeing some of that played out. A reading of 35% or lower is typically good for a move up on the markets and the last reading is 9% below that. So over all, don’t be surprised with the current move up. If the market does come back in the middle of the last rally and then overcomes the last pivot point high, it will have a lot more power behind it. On the other hand, if it can push through the current outside resistance and move up, it will have a higher failure rate, when it starts to drop. So I am all for a pull back, but when it comes to trading the markets, I don’t really care. I know we will find moves in both directions.

Let’s take a look at tomorrow, and see if the Dow can break through the outside resistance, it is coming up on it now. The Dow closed the day matching yesterdays high, while the S&P closed slightly higher than that. I have seen many times the indexes go slightly past their previous highs, only to fall back and fail, thus taking the late comers down.

http://www.screencast.com/t/AUgxJSONYx      Some of today’s trades “Live”

http://www.screencast.com/t/LRwBANuN          Still shot of hourly S&P and daily Dow

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