Posts Tagged ‘Major Market Index’s’

Reversal Day on Wall Street – right on schedule

Sunday, February 7th, 2010

Hello, today is Saturday February 6th and this post is for Fridays session, what a reversal !

Reversal Day on Wall Street right on schedule, is todays blog title. The Dow was down 167 points at its worst point and ended the day up +10. The S&P did something similar, down over 20 points and close up 3 points on the cash market.

It was good to see a little buying come in, to keep the bears on their toes. Wall Street is always a two-way street, don’t forget that. If you had it in your mind that today was a down day all day, you were wrong, it happens. The point is, don’t let your guard down. This is exactly why you get days like this. The majority of traders gets locked into thinking one way. When things start going against that, at first they rationalize, then they try to talk it back down, then they start praying, and then its to late and they through in the towel and buy back there short positions.

Those short early on, gave back all the gains they thought they had and then some. It is not a good weekend for those caught in that on Friday. There were clues, that today was a reversal day. Early on there was some fast looking action, but some real nice turns going on in the S&P futures.

I started my day again in the afternoon session, around 11 am West Coast. The day went pretty well. I was able to pick up some large moves, for me anyway. I stayed in and did not scale out like I usually do, because I saw what was coming. One of the trades was for 8.50 points average and a few others for several points more. I have a video of it below, if you care to see. It wasn’t perfect, but trading never is, close enough.

I did say the day before, that it was more likely that a spick down would happen first before a big bounce, than holding the line and attempting to rally. We now might see that 1080 hear pretty soon. The market did go a little farther down than I thought it might, but that is not unusual, if a reversal was in the mix.

We closed at the highs of the day and even posted gains across the board in the Major Market Index’s.

I will be slipping a post for tomorrow about the benefits of using Tick Charts over Minute Charts. So come back for that one, it will be up mid day West Coast time.

Enjoy the rest of the week-end,Super Bowl Sunday tomorrow.

Identifying Fear Based Day Trading – and what can we do about it !

Monday, January 18th, 2010

This post is for Fridays session, where the Major Market Index’s closed on Key Market Support.

This is going to be a very important week to watch. We are currently resting on key market support that goes a long way back. This support has many times proven itself as a point of interest. Each time the price has moved higher, but will it happen again? That is the 64,000 dollar question that everyone wants to know. Well, anyone who trades for longer swing moves and those that may be trading stocks. The general market trend, accounts for the majority of a stocks overall movement. I don’t remember the actual percentage, but it is very high. So this kind of information is key, to those traders for sure.

Day trading the S&P E-Mini’s for daily income, is very different. We look for the short-term direction and move with it, at low risk entry points along the way. It is different for everyone, most traders trade differently. Almost like snow flakes, no two are the same. Well, maybe not that extreme, but you get the point.

It is vital to have a set strategy as you approach any market. Trading stocks is really no different from trading the Index Futures, because the index consists of stocks. Often, it is much easier to trade the emini index futures, because you do not have to look for what to trade. Each stock does have a certain personality to it and learning the many nuances of each, can be time-consuming. Trading the E-Mini’s you don’t have to hunt or look for what you are going to trade and you do have the leverage to go with it.

OK, I don’t want to get side-tracked and promised to talk about Fear and Greed and how it relates to trading in the way that I see it. Everyone has a perspective on this topic and many things have been said regaurding these two trading emotions. It effects everyone differently and many learn different lessons as they have dealt with this in there past and continue to deal with it at times in the future. It is not something that goes away. You have to manage it and put it in its place. By managing it, I mean, not letting it take root in you, effecting your trading results. It can destroy any trader and humble the most arrogant, very quickly.

Nothing good comes from Fear based day trading. We often react to our positions with this strong emotion. It can make us do things that we would not normally do, only to regret it all at the close of the trading day. We may often ask ourselves, why did I do this or that. It may be, that we pulled our stops and tried to give the trading position more room, only to find out that our first small loss would be the only acceptable loss for us.

Now we find ourselves, not willing to take a loss that large and give it more room, only to find that the more room you give it, it just never seems like its enough. During a time like this, you are not reacting rationally, but out of fear. That fear, can be coming from many directions. One is as simple as not wanting to accept you may be wrong. We may feel at times that our ego and trading confidence are tied to winning trades and when we are not posting them, the thought of losing, just does not match our ideal.

Trading from a fear base, is only going to bring you down any way you look at it. All traders need to accept the fact that you will have losing trades. If you can not handle that simple fact, you may not be ready to trade. I know that I reacted last week to fear, in one trading scenario. I don’t remember which day it was, but, I saw the bottom of the market and felt we were going to go higher, I jumped in to soon and did not follow my entry method and it cost. I was reacting out of fear, but this fear was a little different. It was the fear of missing a move, that caused me to take action to soon and not wait for my base method entry.

It happens to all of us, but the best thing you can do as a trader is go back and write it down. This will cause you to remember why you did that and understanding that, you will have the basis for making changes. People move whole markets based on fear. Trading stops are often triggered by this emotion.

Traders who trade without a trading stop often react to the whims of the market, by getting out at the bottom, only to find the market move up again, but without them. As the price drops against them, they convince themselves that it will come back, it has too, is how it usually goes. Traders often talk to the price as if it can hear them. Fear based trading will produce adrenaline, but that is not what you want. Get that at the gym or some other form of exercise.

You want to have as little emotion as possible and want to remain level and in control. That goes for large gains and your loses. If you feel that you made a mistake, your first loss it best. Never pull your stops, never. Close the trade out right where it is, no matter what and re-evaluate after you are flat. Often, you will be more objective when you are out of the trade and see it more clearly.

Try and trade with as little of a market bias as you can. The danger is in establishing a strong mental opinion, where prices could and should go, only then trying to confirm your predisposed position. We need to follow the market not the other way around.

These are some short answers to help defend against getting in that fear based trading mode in the first place. The opposite of fear, to me, is peace. You are content and at ease with where you are. That is what every trader needs to find. There are many ways to help you get in that state of mind and we can explore them in the coming posts this week. I have many suggestion that I use and will be willing to share them with you, so check back Monday afternoon or early evening and I will continue.  Until then, good trading.

Below is my trading from Fridays session.

The Market Index’s Will Soon Show Its Hand !

Friday, November 6th, 2009

Today is November 5th and all is well on Wall Street.

The Dow was up 203 points and the S&P 20 points. This is really exactly what I thought would happen. I did not know that most of it would come in one day, but we got a pretty good bounce back up. There would seem to be a little more room in the move. If the overhead resistance comes in, it will put the breaks on the index slightly higher from where we currently are, just a few S&P points higher, maybe as high as 1080 on the CASH Index, but it will probably be a little less than that. I hate to say that word, “IF”. That is really the only thing that we can count on for sure, IF THIS, THEN THAT.

Let me spell this out, very clearly. The Dow and S&P have to break a new high to keep this thing alive and It needs to happen here soon. If the last pivot low on the Dow and S&P get taken out, you are going to see a lot of selling. More than we have seen in some time. That is the long and short of it. The market can do what ever it wants, I only identify that there is overhead resistance just above us. If it gets taken out and a rally comes in, great. That is what I like to see right now anyway. All I know is, the move from the March lows has almost been satisfied by retracing back 50 %. (S&P 1120 and Dow 10,300) I don’t know what that is going to do to the overhead resistance? Will it be that if it gets broken, it will clear the way for yet higher prices, no one knows?

Trading to me, is about probabilities. Finding an edge and consistently exploiting it. Trying to map out the daily, weekly and monthly charts only lay the ground work for what I do for a few minutes each day. Trying to pick up a few S&P E-Mini points a day is all I ask for.

As I stated, successful trading is finding something that works and having the will power and focus to follow it. All we look for is an edge. The edge is bigger for some and smaller for others. All successful traders have found that edge. That is why they are successful. Have you found your edge? Some people look for a lifetime, bouncing from one thing to another.

Everyone who aspires to “Trade for a Living”, needs to find that edge first. It is always best to know what kind of trader you are and want to become. I for one, do not like to hold positions overnight. I look for small bursts of movement that last usually just minutes and occasionally I can hold it for an hour or so. I do not like to give back good gains. I just don’t do to well with that. Maybe in the future, that will change, but I doubt it. It has not happened as of yet. 

The reason for that is, I don’t look for “Home runs” all the time, but occasionally I get one, but I am interested in “Singles and Doubles”. You see, that is not like everyone else, but that is me. I trade according to what works for me and I find that, the shorter the time I am in the market, the better.

Anytime you have a position working in the market, you have exposure. That exposure is called “Risk”. I like to keep the risk as low as possible. Right now I want to keep my risk very low and I am just trading very small, I will increase it when I have less distractions. I am updating my website, adding new things and looking into others. I am not super focused as I should be if I was trading with increased size.

I guess my point above, was to find out what kind of trader you are and how much risk you want to expose yourself to. Then find something that can give you an edge and try and be consistent. Small profits are OK, as long as you get them consistently and don’t allow yourself to have ”BLOW UP DAYS”. That is a total No-No. Don’t do that, ever. You do a lot of damage to your confidence when you allow that to happen, not to mention your account.

Be OK with taking a loss and a loss for the day. If you are getting stopped out of your trades again and again, you are not having a good day. JUST STOP. Don’t let your ego get in the way and say to yourself, “I am going to do this, I have to come out on top”. It is fine to positively program your mind for success, before you trade, but once you are down and struggling, you have to know where it is in the session that you will stop trading for the day, that is a must.

To me, it is just like trading without a stop on your position. That is crazy, don’t ever do that. That is like walking a High Wire  without a net, if you fall, you die. Same is true in the trading ring. While I am at it, “Do not move your stop down, only up”.

Those few things right there if traders would do, could make all the difference in the world and to their bottom line. Ask yourself, do I do any of those things mentioned?  If you do and you want to change, accepted the fact that at times in life we all need help to get where we want to go, then I may be able to help.

Once I finish updating my site, I will have the time to grow the small group of traders I currently work with. If you are interested, my course fee’s and personal mentoring will be less than half of my posted price on my website. I have a lot to offer if you need it.                                                   vinnie@sniperdaytrading.com

Until then, Good Trading

Vince  

Technical Analysis Video of Major Index’s

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

Today is Wednesday, November 4th and the major index’s could not hold on to the gains.

It was Federal Reserve announcement day today at 11:15 am West Coast time and the markets gave us a good show. The night trading in anticipation of some good news, speculators bid up the price of the futures and on the open, the cash S&P shot up to match the current futures prices. It pretty much continued higher for a while and started to level out at mid day. From 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. the price action basically stopped. If you were trying to trade in that stuff, it would be enough to make you go crazy. No Movement. Anyone trading the market should know about key announcements days and times.

I will give you all a link to a site that you should be looking at. You don’t have to use this one, there are other sites that do the same thing, but it lets you know about important news releases. I rarely hear what it is, that they say in the releases, but the point is to know what time key reports are going to be released.

If you don’t know whats going on, first, you are at a disadvantage. You may ask yourself, where did all the volume go, after you have tried to put on 2 or 3 trades and now have losses. Think about it, 2 hours and the range was basically 2 points high to low. Most people can not make money in a condition like that. Everyone else knew to stay out, did you?

After the news release, you almost always get a mixed bag of indecision. Some think the news was good, others see it as bad and the wild swings begin. The first 15 minutes or so after the release is really better to stay out. You won’t get good fills and the market can turn so fast, you will wish you waited.

After, the initial noise, if you see a good trade, it could be worth a shot. The reward can be “good and plenty”, but be on the right side of the fence.

So here is the site, www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm  .

On another note, I had promised to show you some price action in the major cash index’s and how they compare to each other.  I have the NASDQ, S&P 500 cash and the Dow.

I start out in a monthly chart, cover a few points of interest, where we were and where we will most likely go. I only have 5 minutes, so I go pretty fast, but still enough time to get an idea of what has happened, so you can gain insight into what may be coming.

I did not cover this, because of time and may touch on it tomorrow, but the bottom that we put in back in March, is not the same type of bottoms that we have put in before. With the type of bottom we put in bach in March, a substantial put back is likely.  It may only be back to the middle of its most recent range, but from where we have come from, that is a major shift and a substantial point value, several hundred S&P points lower. No-one likes to think about that, but we have some real big problems out their that are being covered up, with tons of Fed liquidity.

The Federal Reserve gave us an indication that they were going to keep an easy money policy for now and gave no clue on when it would end. In a general sence, that is good for the stock market, but there is so much more, and no room and time to cover it today.

Back to the price action: To me, the natural rhythm of the market says it goes lower over the next few months. This run up, was all of what I had been saying for literally 7 months. You can go back and read my older blogs from back then and see that I had been saying that, where we are today, is where we were eventually going to go. “WE ARE HERE”. Now, in tomorrows blog, I will continue where I left off today. There is more to show and discuss when we get to the daily’s. I do believe that we will continue to go slightly higher from here as a bounce back up to the middle of recent selloff. From there, well, that is where the real trouble could come in.

Tune in tomorrow to get “THE REST OF THE STORY”

To see the video in a larger screen, just click on the screen