Posts Tagged ‘holding’

Business Plan

Friday, February 26th, 2010
# Contract x $50 per x1 pt. x 2pts x 5 days wk = $ ——– Weekly Draw

1 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $500.00
2 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $1,000.00
3 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $1,500.00
4 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $2,000.00
5 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $2,500.00 $250.00
6 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $3,000.00 $500.00
7 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $3,500.00 $750.00
8 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $4,000.00 $1,000.00
9 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $4,500.00 $1,250.00
10 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $5,000.00 $1,500.00
11 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $5,500.00 $1,750.00
12 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $6,000.00 $2,000.00
13 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $6,500.00 $2,250.00
14 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $7,000.00 $2,500.00
15 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $7,500.00 $2,750.00
16 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $8,000.00 $3,000.00

This first 16 week section is the bedrock or foundation for going all the way. Not many people will be able to do this, I tell you that right now and up front. These results are not typical and I am not representing them as such. That being said, it is possible.

Just because most people do not have the discipline it takes to realize these results and the ones from below, does not mean it can not be done. It is up to the individual and their drive, passion, hard work and dedication to make this a reality for those that want it.

Many traders are quite satisfied to trade smaller lots and stick with that. I would add, it is easier to trade small size for the most part. When you increase contract size, it usually changes things for most people. Notice how I said, most people. Maybe you are not like most people and in-fact do not want to be put in a class with “Most People”. I don’t blame you, I don’t either.

What I am saying is, if someone does not lay out the possibilities to attain a specific goal, he will never know how to achieve it or even the idea of achieving it, will be foreign to him. So that is why I lay it out as such, for seeing the possibilities of what the exceptional could do.

The most difficult part in reaching this goal is not attaining the 2 points per day to acquire the results, but it is in the mental preparation and “mind games” that people allow themselves to become subjected to.

As you increase your size, there may come a point that you start to get affected by the money. You may say to yourself, “that is a lot of money, I don’t know about that, maybe I should trade smaller”. Here, the money is affecting your decisions and may start creating problems for your actual trading results.

In this case, it come down to personal choice and meeting your overall objectives. If your goal is to earn 200,000 a year at trading, that is a worthy goal. You may only need to trade up to a specific number of contracts and stop at that point. (The number of contracts to do that is 8-9 contracts at 2 points per day, that is do-able.) What you feel comfortable with at that time. As your account grows, you may feel more comfortable with increasing your size and you may not. Again, personal choice.

If you decide to go to the next level, it usually does get harder, but it is only in your mind. If you stick to the plane and do all the things I teach in my trading manual, listen to the mental exercises two or three times a week, which will allow the neuro-linguistic programming their to take effect and in addition, work on yourself as I explain, there is no reason why you will not have a shot at moving on to the next level.

17 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 9,000 $ 3,500 wk
18 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 9,500 $ 3,750 wk
19 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 10,000 $ 3,000 wk
20 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 10,500 $ 4,250 wk
21 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 11,000 $ 4,500 wk
22 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 11,500 $ 4,750 wk
23 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 12,000 $ 5,000 wk
24 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 12,500 $ 5,250 wk
25 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 13,000 $ 5,500 wk
26 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 13,000 $ 5,500 wk
27 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 14,000 $ 6,000 wk
28 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 14,500 $ 6,250 wk
29 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 15,000 $ 6,500 wk
30 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 15,500 $ 6,750 wk
31 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 16,000 $ 7,000 wk
32 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 days wk $ 16,500 $ 7,250 wk

So, you decided to go for it. You will need support. NO DOUBT. Trading for Big Money does not come easy. When things get a little tough in this section, you will need someone to help you through.

I offer support long after the purchase of my course and anyone scaling up their contract size over time is going to need help in keeping perspective, clarity and focus when targeting higher objectives. This is not an option. If you need and want much more time to attain these higher goal objectives I am sure we can work something out. Just let me know.

I currently have a small group of traders and do plan to grow, but I am not interested in growing into very large group. This way, I will have time to address individual needs from traders as the process of meeting their daily trading goals unfold.

33 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 17,500 $ 7,250 wk
34 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 18,000 $ 7,250 wk
35 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 18,500 $ 7,250 wk
36 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 19,000 $ 7,250 wk
37 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 19,500 $ 7,250 wk
38 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 20,000 $ 7,250 wk
39 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 20,500 $ 7,250 wk
40 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 21,000 $ 7,250 wk
41 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 21,500 $ 7,250 wk
42 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 22,000 $ 7,250 wk
43 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 22,500 $ 7,250 wk
44 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 23,000 $ 7,250 wk
45 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 23,500 $ 7,250 wk
46 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 24,000 $ 7,250 wk
47 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 24,500 $ 7,250 wk
48 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 25,000 $ 7,250 wk
48 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 25,500 $ 7,250 wk
49 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 26,000 $ 7,250 wk
50 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 26,500 $ 7,250 wk
51 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 27,000 $ 7,250 wk
52 x 50 dollars pt. x 2 pts x 5 $ 27,500 $ 7,250 wk

If you are on a quest for greatness, this section is where it happens. You will need all of the things mentioned in the section just above and now, more. If you are able to continue scaling up your trades and get an occasional day that you bring in 6 or 8 points, say two or three times a month, this will insulate you from the occasional day that you get stopped out at your daily loss limit. (-4 points) Having a daily loss limit is so important, I cannot express it enough. YOU NEED TO CONTROL LOSSES.

That is what is always needed at any stage. There would not be any reason to consistently trade for your daily goals and in one day or week, loose a ton or ground and cash. That is what happens to traders all the time. They make it fast and loose it faster.

You need to make it slow and hold on to it. In my trading manual, I lay out all the specifics on how to go about doing this and again, you will need some kind of additional support.

When you start out at week 2, after your 1st week warm-up, you will be risking $100 (1 point, $50 pt x 2 contracts) against an account of say $5,000, an average opening balance for many people. That represents 2% of your equity per trade taken.

After the second section from above, if you are still on course, your risk per trade is now down to .85% per trade taken. Very Good, considering that you have been taking money out of your account. After the third and last section, if you are again still on course, your risk per trade is down to a touch over .50% and that is outstanding.

Overall your risk is going down all along the way and you are taking cash out of the market. By doing this, you are lessening the impact that the money will have on you. You do not have it all on the line, something a gambler would do.

This is the reason why, I do think it is possible for the exceptional to achieve results similar to this. It, by any means does not happen very often, but again, do not let that hold you back. Just because others have tried and not been able to do it, does not mean that has to be transferred over to you, does it?

I DON’T THINK SO! and you shouldn’t either.

Trading for as lofty of a goal as described in this section is again not easy and it may be as previously stated that you trade up to a specific number of contracts and “Hold the Line, Stay with Me”. A famous line from the movie Gladiator. Sorry there, a little off subject. The point is, this plan is not for everyone.

A very attainable goal, is to start trading just one contract for the whole month. If you have averaged 2 points per day, high and lows, then you increase your contract size to two, for the month. If you do not get to a net 20 days x 2 points per day, you stay at one contract until you do. Then you can move on to three and so on.

If you stay close to this plan, with conservative daily targets of 2 points + an occasional windfall 6-8 points once of twice a month, you will be trading 12 contracts and on pace to making over $250,000 a year. That is making it slow and holding on to it.

For so many others, it will only seem like a dream and those that have failed will tell you, “It can not be done”. Don’t let anyone’s negativism take your dream. Back in the day, others who knew what I was doing tried to do just that to me. If I would have listened to them, where would I be know, no where close to what I have achieved.

In closing, I believe that trading for 2 points per day is achievable and feel totally confident in my approach in getting it. I don’t currently trade the size I would like, but that will soon change. Getting my daily goal and helping people get theirs has clearly defined my objectives at this time.

Good Trading to All

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Friday, February 26th, 2010

If you have 60 to 90 minutes a day, a computer, risk capital, the Internet, mental discipline and “Sniper Day Trading”, I believe you may have what it takes to attain financial and time freedom by Day Trading the E-Mini Futures.

Emini Course and Mentoring Program

In my Emini Trading Course, I show you how to utilize a “Sniper Trading” type approach using my tested method to earn at least 2 points per day from the markets. You could learn how to make consistent profits in good or bad markets. Our method focuses on high probability trading, delivering you your points for the day. Day trading for a living does not have to be hard, if you have the right method, plan, course of action and someone to explain it to you in a live market trading environment.

Price action, is driven by emotional buying and selling decisions for a variety of reasons, all of which are present in the current price at any given moment. Our job, is to find the turning points that exist in each session through precision market timing. These turning points are present every day the markets are open. Sniper Day trading will teach you to clearly spot where these turning points are, using a trading mastery type approach. These points show up like consistent “Sniper” shots on your trading screen and are clearly defined by using the custom tools I have created.

We strive to teach our students to learn price action apart from indicators or tools, but they are helpful to point out what may not be seen in the beginning. I am sure what I have in full is not being taught by anyone and is unique to me and the many years I have spent developing and now clearly defining the “Sniper Day Trading Method”. The signals generated by my method will produce the same signals to anyone who is following it, there is really no gray area, only which trades you decide to take and which you let go by.

Sniper Day Trading Method

We trade with tick data and use multiple time frames in timing our trade entries. I have three different styles I trade and bring them up as the price action dictates. One is a “Scalp Trading Method”, (T-1 Trade) that is very accurate in picking up 2,3 or 4 ticks on the S&P. My stops are such, that this approach averages a one to one risk/reward ratio, but enjoys a very high percentage “Win/Loss” ratio. This is bread and butter for me.
The second style enjoys the benefit of my “Precision Turning Points” model, (T-2 Trade) and is usually traded with multiple contracts. The first part is scaled out around 1 point, which quickly brings me to a no loose position and the second half is usually allowed to run. I have four incredible ways to get out, all of which act independently of each other, but are uncannily similar in their results.

The last, is a “Pyramid Trading Method”, that when conditions are right, you are able to keep your first risk small but scale into the trade, adding positions in the direction of the trend, but only at very low risk entry points, keeping your stops down to 1 S&P point. Each one of these methods are very clearly explained in my 80 page trading manual and followed up in the DVD training part of my course. They will also be gone over in our live trading sessions.

While only needing to pull 2 points after commission per day out of the market, (8 ticks) catching a few scalp trades or a T-2 trade, is really all you need to hit your daily goal. I believe in setting realistic goals, which increase your chances to meet them. By having a clear mind, a solid trading plan, with position sizing risk limits and rock solid money management, you come that much closer to trade your way to financial and time freedom.
Examples of two typical trading days back to back, applying the Sniper Day Trading Method. It only took about 20 minutes to get my daily goal plus on both of these days.

Mental Discipline and Trading Psychology. I have told you what I can offer to you, but this is not all you will need for success. I am convinced that my method, custom indicators and complete approach could make the aspiring trader profitable on a regular basis, but do you have what it takes? Trading psychology plays a huge roll in all traders, whether they know it or not. You have forces constantly working against you. Success is only going to become a reality to you, if you have the qualities needed to pull this off. What you are going to need is * Discipline * Patience * Ability to follow rules * Control your fears * Get a grip on personal greed. Frequently, I talk about this in my daily blog, because they are too often why traders fail to reach their goals.
I offer a lot of support in this area as well, if you are a struggling trader and want to change, I have the tools, method and know how to likely turn you around, so that you can create the consistent income, free up your time and fulfill your dreams in becoming a successful day trader.

Mental Exercises

In my program I address some of these issues in a series of “Mental Training Exercises” that I have put together. They are designed to get your mind thinking and believing that trading for a living and meeting your daily trading goal is normal, natural and the only outcome you will accept. The titles in the first series are; * Financial Freedom * Positive Risk Taking * Holding your concentration while trading * Achieving your Trading Goals. The titles in the second series are; * Overcoming Trading Obstacles * Controlling Emotions while Trading * Overcoming the Fear of Failure * Creating Hope & Success.

These I believe are very powerful and are in, “the first person” and will become personal to you. They are a form of Neuro-Linguistic programming that can take you farther and bring you closer to meeting your trading goals. They are, in written form and in audio CD and created by me. My plans are to continue to expand these in the future and make any new additions available to students who come on board, all at no extra charge. These training series are specific to traders and cover issues they face.

Solutions for traders, Sniper Day Trading

I realize that not everyone is born with all the qualities a successful trader will need, but I feel it can be learned if you want it bad enough. Ask yourself, how much do you want to become a consistent successful trader ? The answer to that is going to make all the difference in the world.

I know personally the things that hold traders back from bringing it all together and I know exactly what to do to help them change. I believe I can help the struggling trader as well as the trader who has never done this before.
I can set you on a course that is tailored to your experience level and walk you through everything needed and expected. The good part is, you won’t have to go it along. If you have any question, I can not only answer it, but help you apply it, to get the results you will need. Our daily goal is not to hard to hit, 2 points + per day. We can take a conservative approach to help you get that goal regularly.

If you are honest and know you need help and are willing to work hard and change what ever you have to, then I am sure I can help. Trading for a living is possible, but you need to do different, be different and think different from the majority of other traders. If you first commit to yourself these things, then I will commit to you, which will bring you one step closer to the success that we all strive for. Lastly, I want to assure anyone with doubts, my method, straight up works. The only question that remains is, will you move forward and decide to make it work for “YOU”.

Price Action Day Trading

“Price Action Day Trading”, is the key to your long term success. The markets do something everyday that is consistent since they began trading, over one hundred years ago. It exists in all time frames and gets played out on trading screens across the globe each day. It is important to understand and learn, “good price structure” and how it is built. That is what I teach and that is what students get when they partner with me at Sniper Day Trading. The key is learning what to do and when to do it and why. If you don’t know the answers to those questions you will eventually fall short. Many traders use indicators to help them and that is OK. I have them and use them also, but I do not base my trading decisions on the indicators. I base it on good price structure and trade setups that happen over and over, day after day. Traders and investors are very predictable, they base many of there trading decisions on emotion. Knowing slightly ahead, how they will react when certain prices are reached and breached, give us the trading edge we look for. With that said, the indicators magically line up with our trading decisions which can give us the added confidence to put our money on the line.

Below is a typical trading day where you will see the trading, “Turning Point”. I have stripped away everything from the screen except two things. There is much more, but I just want to show you that the indicators line up with our turning points. Which came first the chicken or the egg. The chicken and that is price. Price is always first and the indicators are second. That being said, the indicators can help traders see what is already on the trading screen. I hope this explanation helps clarify in the minds of seeking traders that what we have and do is real and works.

What You Get With Sniper Day Trading

  • My E-Mini Trading Manual (hard copy 80 full pages) with future updates. (very nicely done)
  • Complete DVD video training package in very nice hard cover locking case / extra: will include method applied to stock trading.
  • Method explained throughout the week, with full screen video and audio illustration in both the T-1 and T-2 screens, “Turning Points”. Very powerful part of ongoing training. (This service will be included ongoing all at no extra charge)
  • All custom chart settings to build your trading platform and help by me if needed to set it up.
  • All of my custom and modified indicators I created, that will unmistakably identify my “TURNING POINTS” for the T-1 and T-2 trades, when applied to the method.
  • Method checklist work-sheet ( for examining trades against method).
  • Laminated 8×11 “Method Overview”, to pin up over trading screen. Laminated 8×11 “Mental Exercise Overview” pin up over screen.
  • Mental Training Exercises: eight titles – audio CD and in written form. On-going future title releases no extra charge.
  • Leather bound “Trading Journal”, to help you keep your thoughts, progress, questions and answers.
  • I will personally work with each trader by screen sharing technology and voice of I.P. through SKYPE, in a live trading environment. After you go through the material, we will set appointments for our personal sessions together. We will apply live market data to the method and I will show you exactly what to do and how to do it. The manual and video’s will give you a head start, but working with me personally will undoubtedly bring it all together. I will spend as much time as needed with each trader who comes on board until he or she understands the complete trading method.

If in the future if you have questions, I will always be here to discuss them and go over your charts to help point you in the right direction. I am not just selling my trading method, but offering much more, mentoring and getting you profitable. Traders often face mental barriers that hold them back, but they do not know exactly what it is or why they consistently make the same mistakes over and over again. I can uncover the problems here, find the solutions and set you on your new course.

My goal is to get each trader that joins with Sniper Day Trading to book at least 2 points per day and gradually increasing contract size to a desired income goal. I will do my part as stated above, will you do yours?

ORDER HERE

Important Notice – Risk Disclaimer:

Futures Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any e mini trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daytrading Involves High Risks and You Can Lose A Lot of Money.

Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under or over-compensated for the impact, if any, certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated e mini trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

Additional Cautions

There are no guarantees or certainties in trading. Reliability of trading signals for mechanical systems are in probabilities only. Trading involves hard work, risk, discipline and the ability to follow rules and trade through any tough periods during the methods off times (and all methods or systems have off times) – If you are looking for guarantees, trading is not for you. Most people lose trading. One of the reasons is that they are not consistent and lack discipline. A method of system can help you become consistent, BUT you have to stick to the method like a formula. The ability to be disciplined and control your emotions is even more important than any technical indicators a trader may use. Worrying about the money aspect of trades (which is an emotion) can contribute to and cause a trader to make errors. It is important to trade only with true risk capital. You can find further information at: www.sec.gov

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Near Perfect, in todays trading !

Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009

Today is Tuesday November 3rd and the Dow and S&P are holding on.

Well, thats what is going on, their just holding on, interesting little rhyme. The Dow was off 17 points but the S&P was up 2.50 points in the cash market. Looks like we had a divergence the other way today, that is good. The broader S&P market is much more important than basket of 30 stocks, the Dow, even if they are the biggest. The Dow is still in really good shape here, it is on solid support and holding. Any break of its newly established pivot low, will spell trouble.

Today I took a few nice trades and called it a day. I had 27 ticks of profit, counting both sides of the split trades and 2 ticks in loss. I found myself done in 45 minutes. The first 90 minutes of trading today, saw some really nice “Turning Points”, crystal clear as far as my method is concerned. The trades I took were also, very clear turning points for me and found it easy to pick up what I needed.

I did get overly anxious on one trade and jumped the gun. I felt I knew where prices were going to go and jumped in to soon. I did not wait for the right timing and it cost me, 2 ticks. That was my only loss and could have easily made that a 1 point gain instead. The good thing is, I did not hesitate once I saw what I did and elected to take a 2 tick loss, instead of 3 or 4.

I don’t have a whole lot more for now, I wrote a long article yesterday and need to lighten up a little today.

Below is a short video of the trades I took in todays market. I closed the last trade out “Live”

Until tomorrow,

http://www.screencast.com/t/2NHfxbPYTR8i

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Shocking Link in todays post, be warned

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

Today is Tuesday October 27th and things slowed down a little today after yesterdays wild ride.

The S&P cash came into the support area I mentioned in my posting yesterday, a short comment but this is what I wrote.

 From yesterdays blog: “Currently the cash S&P support is about 7 points lower from its current level.”

Like I said, it was a short comment identifying the next major area of support as I saw it. Yesterdays cash S&P 500 close was 1066.94 and the support that I saw did in fact come in exactly at that area today, with the index dropping to 1060.82 after 35 minutes of trading. It then moved up off that area by 12 S&P points only to drop all the way back down to the exact same support area I mentioned yesterday, for yet again a second time. At 10:35 the index was back at support, 1060.62, this time, for 10 minutes until it moved out 8 points up off the same support area.

It is important to note something about todays market. We had the Dow with a gain today of about 14 points and the S&P with a loss of around 3 1/2 points. This is not a huge disparity, but it is worth noting. The Dow has not pulled back far enough to establish its natural rhythm for this pull back, while the S&P has. If the Dow had pulled back along with the S&P, I would feel better about this support level holding, but to often you see the Dow come back at a latter time and finish its move, only to then force a break of support for the S&P.

So, what I am trying to say is, I am a little suspect of this support holding, on the S&P. I would like to see it hold and have the index make its final push up to the 1120 area like I have been calling for the last 6 months. I believe once that level is hit, the players will not have a reason to hold on any longer and really start selling, but that is my take on it. It does not have to be yours.

Let me give you a web site to take a look at. You may want to share it with your friends. I find it very interesting in that a picture is worth a thousand words. Their is not a lot of words but a lot of numbers, BIG ONES. The average person, I believe will be shocked and even the not so average. I still get chills to my spin when I look at this.

Before I say where this site is, I have been following these numbers for literally decades, no kidding. Just like I thought back then, I think the same now. It won’t last forever without a massive shift taking place.

This is a big reason for the continued problems which lie ahead. You can not spend more than you make and expect things not be effected. All of these numbers are backed up and if you put your mouse over the box, it will give you the source. Take a look at the bail out numbers, WOW.

Last warning to all with a weak stomach, don’t go to this site….  The bottom line is what everyone always talks about. If you see the bottom line and especially the bottom right hand corner, cover your eyes. “Alright already, give me the site, your killing me.” I know, sorry but, disclosure and all for the faint hearted.

http://usdebtclock.org/       There it is !

I should have my website update pretty soon, look for new content and new lower prices for my course. The time to make your money is now.  If you have trading resources, get yourself ready. There is no better time to go forward with fulfilling your trading dreams. The content in my program I believe will help you get there. Look for the updates in a week or so. Those interested now and want more information, E-Mail me at vinnie@sniperdaytrading.com 

Vince  

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Reversal on Wall Street

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

Today is Wednesday, September 22nd and the markets were on the move today.

Things started to move after the fed announcement at 11:15 am this morning. The market shot up several S&P points only to sell off soon there after. It looked like an 18 point sell off from top to bottom in less than an hour. When you get moves like that, it is best not to fight it. Look for entry points in the direction of the sell off. If your timing is not right you can suffer a loss, so stay alert for the next one.

That sell off today, did not look to good for the bull’s. The current uptrend is still somewhat in tact but it can not suffer much more of a draw down from here. The bulls need to come back in and bid this back up. Another day like today and it may all be over. We will get that bounce back up that I was talking about yesterday and that is going to tell the story. If it is a week recovery bounce, the bears may elect to sell into strength and there goes your rally. Very critical area, so stay alert.

We came very close to 10,000 Dow and not far from 1100 on the S&P there may be traders and investors jumping the gun. No one wants to be left at the gate holding the bag. You look down into it and find out that its empty inside. Many of these guys probably said I had enough and started to close out positions. Well lets hope the rally can stay in tack for a little while longer. It will not be up to me, but we can choose to see it, then react off of it.

Below, today’s turning points.       http://www.screencast.com/t/oDxnBv2Iw

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Federal Reserve takes drastic step, Buys 300 Billion in Treasuries

Thursday, March 19th, 2009

Today is March 18th and the Federal Reserve took a big step to buy treasuries.

All I can say is, “What a day.”

I did not know that today was a Fed decision day. Shame on me. I usually check the economic calender for that. I don’t usually pay too much attention to news, because it always shows up in the price anyway, but that is one I always look for – because of the explosive moves following the news.

It usually happens at 11:15 am West Coast time and I was in a trade just before the announcement, with only 1 contract and then, boom, a 10 point move for the S&P in minutes. I re-entered for another move up after a consolidation for another 11 point move and again I only had on 1 contract. I kept re-entering long, and some short, to the very top of the market.

The S&P hit 800, which was the support at the purple trend line that I had talked about a couple of months ago. Support, when broken, usually then becomes resistance and the market traded right up into that resistance. After noticing that,  combined with the fact that now we had traded exactly to a 62% retacement from 873, the last recent high, to 666, the last recent low and back to 62% retracement at 800 and previous resistance, it made more sense that this would be a higher target for the market to trade up to. And it did – with me in it.

Once the top was reached I saw a good spot for a short and went with it, still trading very light, I think I had 2 contracts there. That was good for about 12 points to the downside. I must have had about 50 S&P points in all, which is about 25 times the amount I need to get my daily goal of 2 points, but that would be at 5 contracts. I traded very small once my equity started to get over $1,500, but it added up real fast for a finish to the day at $5,500 after commission. I took 33 trades total. Yes, that was a lot. But it still turned out better than 75% winning trades in about 3 hours. I have a couple of short video’s showing some of this, take a look below, at the end of the first one is where the Fed released the news and the market shot up.

I must say, that I was a little surprised that the Federal Reserve said that it was going to buy 300 billion in Treasury securities on the open market and 750 billion more in mortgage backed securities, bringing their direct involvement to 1.25 trillion. This is the first time they have done this since 1960. Does anyone know what that means? To me it looks like there was no one to buy the treasuries. China said last week they were very concerned with the U.S. debt market.

Do you know that the Federal Reserve is a private corporation for profit and is not a federal agency. It’s as much Federal as Federal Express. If you did not know that, all you have to do is Google it. The Federal Reserve is owned by a group of private banks from the U.S. and Europe. Basically, the government brokered out the job to a private banking corporation. I know this may be a shock for many, but people are reacting to the news like this is a good thing. This group is beyond reproach and no one has ever performed an audit on this group.

It is relative to the markets and to the economic equation because, while it is holding interest rates down for now, it will have a reverse effect in the near future. The Gold market did not like the news at all trading up nearly 6% for the day at 965 an ounce. The dollar did not like the news at all either, dropping against all major currencies. But the stock market did like it, or so it thought.

It is going to be good for the market in the short run – how long that is, I don’t know – but in the long run, it will be disastrous. There is so much money being floated out there right now that no one can keep up with it.

Here is another thing you may not have known. The total bail out so far is said to be 8-9 trillion dollars. That is a lot of money. Again, why is that relevant? It is going to cause inflation like nobody’s business. All I can say is be careful with your long term money. Let’s hope the market moves up over the next few months giving those who want to get out of their long term investments an opportunity.

Everyone has been trained in thinking, “it will come back, it always does”. This time could be different. Do your own research and think for yourself. Don’t listen to the experts and don’t even listen to me on these matters, but spend the time and check it out.

If you do a Google search using “total bail out so far”, you will get a few figures, but they are all up in the range I mentioned. It is nowhere near the figures we hear on the nightly news.

Sorry for the ramble, but it kind of ticks me off when I hear news like this. To those who are considering a career in trading and have the risk capital, the time to make money is now. The markets are moving nicely up and down and there is profit to be had for those who can wade their way through the noise.

http://www.screencast.com/t/FifEKWgjVXr               Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/u9xVvzQlpfW             Some of today’s live trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/kTfMA2×13w              Some of today’s live trades

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Day 5 Training video / Market Averages holding on

Friday, February 13th, 2009

It is Friday February 13th, and day five of my small video training series.

Hope everyone is enjoying the sample training series. I have gotten positive feedback so far, so I know it has been a help for some. Please feel free to comment.

The market is holding on by the skin of its teeth, hugging the bottom support line we have talked about for so long. Yesterday’s reversal was good, but there wasn’t any follow through in today’s trading. It is still technically positive in the daily chart, but we will need some follow through here pretty soon.

I did check the sentiment numbers and they went negative by an additional 3%, which is good for the bull argument. A reading at 35% or below is considered a bullish signal and we were at 35 and went down to 32. This figure is a weekly poll taken to identify the number of professional stock market newsletter writers who are either bullish or bearish ( up or down). They give their opinions each week and it is tracked and recorded. Other groups take that information and post their results, having somewhat turned it into a market timing tool.

The funny thing about it is that they don’t take the advice, they trade in the opposite direction of the writers  and profit from the standard herd mentality that exists on the street. I have been following these numbers since the early 80’s and found them to be very accurate. It is not fool proof, nothing is, these guys could get it right one of these days, so be careful. I still think there is a bounce in the cards coming but we shall see. I will post a chart of the S&P cash to show you where we are over the weekend.

My day trading went well today, posting 3 gains in the early morning, picking up my daily goal in about 20 minutes. I remember them as +1 point, +1 point, and +1/2 point.  I was only trading for 1/2 point on the last trade because I just wanted to cover commission cost. I was just fine with doing that, even if I could have gotten more, which I could have as I remember. I want to try and stay in control, knowing that I only needed a little more to get my goal. If I had taken a stop on the trade, I would have had to stay trading and that means more exposure to the market.

This is a very conservative approach. I am trying to exercise mental discipline in my trading to show that I can get what I want out of the trading day. I believe that if I want to take 6 or even 10 points out of the market each day, that I could do that as well, but I would have to work at it a bit harder and stay a while longer. I have definitely done that before and it’s ok, but I need to be prepared for it and plan it. Today, I did come back and picked up another daily goal in the afternoon. That was the plan. I treated it just like a new day and did what I always do, pick off a few trades to add to this mornings gains. A nice way to go into the weekend.

Below, I have the training video as well as the screen shots of today’s trades. I will post more on the current events on Wall Street this weekend, so check back . I wish all the readers of my blog a most excellent weekend.

Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/CUArEYcq              Day #5 sample training video

http://www.screencast.com/t/1vYMwyRObtE     This moring’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/Bdtv2315l               This mornings trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/bftPp4q5M             This afternoons add on equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/ODI2×97z               This afternnons trades

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