Posts Tagged ‘Fear and Greed’

Daily goal met 20 minutes today

Tuesday, February 24th, 2009

Today is Tuesday February 24th, and I had a nice smooth day today.

The early market had some nice swings that I missed, but that is just fine. I came in at the top of a market run and picked a few points off here and there. Charts are posted below. If I have time later, I will post some additional information. Have a good day.

I have a little more time right now, to comment on today’s action. We did get the start of that bounce I was expecting in the overall market. There should be some additional follow through in the days to come as well. It is hard to say, but the retracement should take us up to 810 to 820  on the S&P. That would be a 10% move for the whole market. That is a lot, let me tell you, but it would represent the natural flow back to the middle, even if the market drops again after that. We don’t know if it will make it past that point, but we will just have to read market action as it happens to give us greater insight, we shall see. The Dow recovered all of yesterdays losses and then some with a gain of 236 points, a nice move.

Trading Lesson: 

Here, is a short trading lesson that you can build upon while trading. When you start out your day, you need to see yourself placing a trade and expecting that trade to work out with  positive results. So, what needs to happen is, you need to take the time to relax and see yourself identify the trend, identify in your mind everything lining up as the method calls for and placing the trade in a low risk area. With targets and stops already in place, you are set. When we get cold feet and become anxious about pulling the trigger, we begin to work against ourselves and create doubt. That doubt creates fear and when you have fear, you will inevitably do the wrong thing. That is why you need to build confidence in a method that is consistent over time and one that can adjust with changing market conditions. There are a lot of different ways to trade, that is for sure, but a trader who expects to come out on top on a regular basis needs to be exceptional in method and emotion. You need to control both and you can not have one without the other.

I came across a trader who says, ” I have a great deal of self control with my emotions and I can follow a trading plan to the letter, but my problem is that I have no method that seems to work with any regularity”. This is an interesting statement, because most people do not have either. A lot of times you may find that you have a good method but you can not execute it because you can not follow a trading plan. We all need to work on follow a trading plan, because this is what takes away the uncertainty and fear when placing a trade. Since we do not know the outcome of the trade, we have anxiety built up inside of us, again because of the unknown. How do we get past this so that we can keep moving forward? The answer is practice and practice some more. If you are able to get the desired results by seeing the expected move ahead of time, positioning yourself to capture a small piece of the move and get out, quickly. When you capture 1 point of profit in a few seconds and it’s over, the struggle is over as well. You do not have a lot of time to feel anxious about the trade, because you are no longer in it. If you are able to capture a few high probability trades and stop for the day, you built confidence in yourself and that is where it all begins.

Doing the same thing over and over again, entering the market in a low risk area and letting the natural flow and rhythm of the market to take you up and take you down, hitting your desired targets with the least amount of struggle. Then you get to do it again tomorrow, what a pleasure. It is not always like that and trading is very hard to learn, but once you have confidence in a trading method, you are on your way.

If you trade all day long, you are going to be feeling and dealing with a lot of emotions, that is for sure, because the market is going to be showing you so many different looks and reads, you will not know how to process all of that information. Knowing when to stay out of the market is very important and getting stopped out repeatedly will cause frustration and what I call, revenge trading. This is very destructive behavior and to keep all of this stuff to a minimum, you need to limit your trading to a smaller amount of time, so that your exposure to these dark events are kept to a minimum. Well, that’s it for now, more coming tomorrow.

Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/qPLMj3VzouK         Today’s trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/muHvhyzv               Today’s equity chart

Recap of the Week & extra training video

Sunday, February 15th, 2009

Well, its Saturday February 14th and I want to give you a little update of daily price action on the S&P.

I have also a small recap of potential trades in the 233 tick for Friday, as well as the ones I did take, but now showing you in the 233. I trade off of the 100 tick but I have been looking  at the 233 recently with my normal screen shots of the 400 tick and 1600 tick. The 1600 tick is about the equivalent of a 3 minute bar. 

 In the first video below, I am going over the cash S&P market in the “Daily” and then in a 5 minute bar chart. Towards the end of that video, I am showing a screen shot of the 1600 tick and I would recommend that you pause the video so you can get a better look at the signals and what I am looking at.

I don’t trade in the 1600 but use it for reference only at this time. A person can trade that time frame and do well. You will usually have to allow for a bigger stop, but you can work around that a little by using smaller time frames to find you a low risk area to enter. Once you are comfortably aboard, you can ride it up for some large profits. To trade this time frame, I would say you are going to be trading quite a bit longer, 2-3 hours minimum and possibly all day. You will need to wait for the trades to set up and then to move in your direction. This all takes time. It requires patience and a lot of discipline, but for the person who does not want to take small profits, it is an alternative. So be sure and stop the video and take a closer look. I did not have much time left at the end of that video, so it fades away pretty fast.

In the second video, I am showing the 233 tick chart. This is the largest time frame I can use and still stick to a 4 or 5 tick stop. I have been doing the training series on this time frame so you can see what Friday morning’s trading looks like and the first of my daily trading goals. When I placed my orders, I was in the 100 tick chart but used the 233 as a reference.

In this second video, mid point, is a small caption of a screen shot in my website. This is showing only the first part of three parts and points out what is possible to accomplish after 16 weeks of patience, discipline, focus and the ability to control greed and fear. Some people will not be able to follow the plan because emotionally they may not be ready to receive that much money in their life. If you are one of the “Others”, then I suggest that you start training your mind to do just that. This plan is slow enough to truly be possible and it is fast enough to get you going exactly in the direction you want to go. 

On the surface, some people may not think that 2 points is enough to make a lot of money and may question my method. But if you see the power of doing the same thing over and over again, you may just become a believer.

You may have remembered me saying that trading is about probabilities and patterns. If you establish a pattern of booking 2 points a day after commission, and be sure that you do it every day, then you are on your way. If you fall behind, you can make it up on another day with  greater gains.

It has been said that if someone does the same thing for 21 days, he or she has established a habit. Now, who wants to get started with forming that habit?  After the 4 week mark which is 20 trading days, you are starting on $2,500 for that week. If you left it merely at that rate, you would be making $10,000 for the month. But I say, if you made it that far, why not go on from there to 8 weeks, 12 weeks, 16 weeks. You will see, midpoint on the second video, the chart showing you how to gradually move your contract size up by one each week and what it can do for you. I believe, if some do not think that it is possible, it will never happen for them. They won’t let it. But to the other individual, who sees the vision of what could be, then he has everything to gain.

Just ask yourself this one question, “Do You Believe it is possible?” If your answer is yes, then take steps towards bringing yourself  to your desired outcome.  I decided a long time ago that I was going to just such a place. It is not even a question for me. The only question I have these days are how many people am I taking with me? What a journey. 

Trading to me, offers a  perfect solution to have time freedom and the money to go with it. But time freedom for me is on top. With time, you have choices and those choices can include whatever you want it to be, based on your values and what is important to you. I know what it is for me. Maybe ask yourself, what is it for you? I have said this before, but it bears repeating.

Above, I was talking about probabilities and patterns. I discussed patterns first and now a quick comment about probabilities.

The odds of me getting my 2 points goes up greatly when I only need to capture my daily goal of two points. The longer I trade, the possibility exists that I could come into trouble. I believe the markets are true and consistent. It would be me that could have a problem. That being said, it is going to be easier to attain a goal of 2 points vs a goal of 10 points.

You see, the best way to keep large sums of money is to make it a little slower and consistently. This will allow you to adjust yourself and prepare your mind to build on your foundation.  It is such a relief to get what you came for in the markets and do it again the next day with confidence. 

That is what I myself am building as I write to my readers. I know, I do trade for more than two points, but that is not always  the case. If I feel the rhythm of the markets I will continue to add to my gains. I don’t like to trade for more than 1 hour at a time. I know what can happen after a person gets tired. You can make mistakes and draw down your account. This would be trading in the 100 tick, taking 10-15 trades for an hour. If you continue at that pace, 20-30 trades for 2 hours, 30 to 45 trades for 3 hours, it can be done and I have done it, but you need to be on your game. I have seen my concentration drop off at these levels and it would be perfectly normal and understandable.

So, I find it best to be as sharp as I can to take it no longer than 1 hour at a time. I have picked up 10 to 15 points many times during a good hour of trading. The idea is I only need 2 points plus for the day to keep me going forward towards my yearly master plan of trading 5o contracts for 2 points net per day.  That is $2,500 per point x 2 points or $5,000 for the day. At the end of one year your risk for putting on a trade like this is about 1/2% against your account of  $500,000. 

When you compare that to how you started out, possibly risking 2 or 3 % on your first trades, depending on what you started with, your risk is steadily going down and actually becomes nonexistent to a point, because you have been taking cash out of the market all along the way. Along the course of that year you were able to take $ 260,000 in cash.

So, now you can see clearly what 2 points per day can do for you.  High probability trades combined with excellent timing will take you there.

If you want to get to this point of picking up 2 points a day and do it every day, then send me an email message and we can talk.

http://www.screencast.com/t/6dOoi7FJ6Nx   Daily S&P, 5 min S&P, & 1600 tick chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/Q17C1Web6       Friday’s 233 tick &  ”What 2 pt day can do”