Posts Tagged ‘equity chart’

Winning Traders Strive for Precision Entries

Wednesday, September 8th, 2010

Today is Wednesday, September 8th, 2010 and we are looking at some very exciting possibilities coming in the days to come.

I have been looking for a break out of the 1100 S&P recent highs and we may be close. With the resistance coming in on Friday’s market close, a sell off of some magnitude was reasonable as we saw in yesterdays trading. Today, we came up to attempt a challenge of the highs, but it wasn’t ready. Time is an essential ingredient to trading and can even be considered and indicator and or (indication) of future movement, as we are in right now.

A pull back to the middle of the range is a  possibility as I mentioned last week and would bring in more selling to maybe as low as the 1070 S&P area, but two area’s would have to break down first and they are S&P futures 1092 and then 1086. As long as we stay above those levels we could be getting into position for higher prices.  A market move above today’s highs would be considered very bullish and follow through to the upside likely.   A move could come in the night trading and or in the early premarket, so trade accordingly, long or short.

So to recap, I am aware of both sides of the market as defined by the levels I mentioned above. I do have a upside bias, but the market will tell us all which way it wants to go. The price is always the best indication on what to do and when to do it. I put my opinion out their towards overall direction in a much larger time frame, the daily, but as day traders, “Price Rules”.

In today’s trading, I did not have a long time to trade only a few minutes as I was traveling to the San Francisco Bay Area. A coffee break at Starbucks was good for a small scalp trade and later on down the road, good for another couple of small scalp trades for about 3 points in total. Only traded small, but I waited for good high probable entries and took what was their. All in all, I was only following and trading the market for about 30 minutes, unlike yesterday where it was a few hours, way to long.

Yesterdays trading was a little harder (10 trades with scales) in the beginning, as I again started in the slow time of the day.  In addition to the market going nowhere, made for a difficult start. I did put it together as the last part of yesterdays market showed much better price action. That translated to movement and opportunity. I have an equity chart for yesterday and price chart for today below.

In contrast to yesterdays action, today’s was no comparison. Today had so many great opportunities to it as the market started out strong giving traders several chances to enter long as the move continued. Then the big swings started and it only got better from there.

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Trading is all about exercising good timing on your entries and exits. If you know where to get in and then get out, with reasonable targets, you could do well. If your timing is off, you will struggle and take larger stops and take them more often, before you realize that you are underwater for the day. Being behind and trying to play catch up, has its own set of problems as you are trading from a position of weakness. Getting behind is not unusual, but being able to wait for the moves that will bring you back and take you higher needs to come one trade at a time. If you focus on what you are supposed to do and not the money, the trades will produce the money. Our minds have a way of helping or hurting the cause. The results will depend on your thinking and your focus. If you know what you are supposed to do and look for, then the power rests in your ability to focus, exercise patients, and have sniper like execution on your entries. If you don’t know what you are supposed to do or look for, then that is a whole different situation.

Trading indicators are not the end all be all in the trading world. They are only a reflection of the price. I have said this many times before, but repeating that is quiet alright. Traders need to see ahead of time the price building into something he is familiar with and that will take screen time. The trading indicators confirm what you thought was going to happen anyway, or that is how it should be. Many traders rely to heavily on what ever indicators they follow without understanding why it was saying long or short.

The answer to all of this, learn how to trade independent of any indicators and when you use them in the future, you will know WHY the direction is pointing up or down based on the price. If you can’t quite make it that far, at least you need to know what good price structure is and how it is built. That way, you will not loose valuable time as you build upon your trading career.

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Good Trading to all, Vince.

Is the Stock Market pausing or ready for Sell Off ?

Monday, April 19th, 2010

Today is Monday April 19th and the market put in a reaction rally off of Fridays sell-off.

To me, it looks like we may see some sideways to down action coming this week. It is just a quick observation as it looks like the top side has hit a temporary cap to its upside momentum. The volume from Fridays session is what I was hoping to see a while back, very nice volume, more than double its recent average. That made for some great opportunities.

I had a big day on Friday, the best day trading for the year. I took advantage of the increase volume by hanging around a bit longer than normal. I was going to stop after better than double daily goal, but decided that this was a day that I should put the pedal to the metal. We have not seen days like Fridays session for some time, so I took advantage of the price action. I traded like I normally do, with tight stops, but was able to let some of my trades run and run they did.

Going by memory, I think it was Goldman Sacks was being sued by the Feds and that got things moving. I saw the volume instantly kick in with huge lot size behind it. I was in that move but I had only picked one point out of the trade. After the first consolidation, I jumped in and rode the move down for several points. It was like that for the rest of the session. I watched the market most of the day and took a few breaks in between. Below is my equity chart of my results for Fridays session.

I did trade today as well and it went fine. I only traded for 45 minutes and ended it. I have been making a solid effort to trade earlier in the session. There are much more opportunities and things don’t take as long to come together, overall much better. Below is are my equity chart results for today’s session.

Below I have one more chart for you to take a look at. It is a daily chart of the S&P futures continuous contract and the cash Dow and cash NASDAQ markets. Take a look at the resistance running across the top of the Dow. That is some pretty strong consistent blockage that it keeps running into. There are only two ways to resolve that, a drop or a breakout. Both options can be looked at, but, which one has the most likelihood for the next move. I will you make up your own mind on that. I see for the short term, sideways to down, but we will see in the days to come. The market can continue to go higher, but it needs to move sideways to digest its gains. By moving slightly down, that, also gives it additional time and room to move higher, but it is going to need to do at least one of those, time or a little backing off in price or both.

Well, that’s it for now. Lets see how things shape up. I will be sure to report the Investors Sentiment numbers that come out after tomorrows close on Thursday. I get a two day delay. For the link look in the resources section of my website. They update it for free and it posts usually late Thursday evening.

Until next time, good trading.