Posts Tagged ‘daily goal’

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Learn Day Trading Skills – offer – Through Sniper Day Trading!

Saturday, January 23rd, 2010

Today is Friday January 22nd, and the sell-off continues.

Well, the only thing I can say is, I am not surprised with today’s price action. The market is doing everything it would normally do after a break in formation, as I layed out in yesterday’s blog post.

There may be a bounce somewhere in here, but time will tell. I know there are people out there that love to buy the dips. Engrained by the media and such, you have the sheep step up to the plate, ”FOR SHEARING”.

I did not see the news, but I can only imagine. I see the market through purely a technical lens and reading moves as they unfold. It is easier than trying to predict far in advance. With the break two days ago, it was not hard to imagine or expect the kind of downward price action we have seen. Institutions, investors and traders have their stops at those key support points for a reason, to protect themselves against a sell-off. Once the first domino was tossed, the next one gets hit and there you go. I am sure we have all seen the domino effect, that is what just happened the last couple of days.

At some point, there will be the brave, to step up and buy, thinking they are getting a good deal and maybe they are, but it is risky. The S&P is now in an area of support. It is the same area that I was looking at, but on the Dow Jones. That index traded below where I thought support would come in today, but the S&P over-road the support by breaking to the similar area where it now may try to find support. If I had called the support for the S&P yesterday, I would have used the area close to where we are now.

The S&P price of 1085 was hit 5 times over the past couple of months which may be a temporary spot for the market to pause. Currently we are at 1091.  If we trade past that, you will probably see a whole new wave of selling come in and we could find ourselves down to the S&P 1028 level. The middle of the range as I point out yesterday is Dow 8100 to 8600 and S&P 910 to 855.

Pretty scary stuff, but this is what I was warning about for some time. When the formation breaks, you will see the sell-off, sharp and deep.

When we bounce, where ever that is, what happens after that, is going to tell us how quick all of this may take. A slow gradual process will probably be better for most people.

On, to other topic’s;  In todays trading I was only at it, for 10 minutes and picked up my daily goal. I did mark up some trades on the screen after that for a little while and picked up some nice turning points. I may trade for a little higher point return next week, but with this Monday being a holiday and Tuesdays session flat. I wanted to make sure I picked up my net goal for the week safely and I did that. So, next week, I may trade a little more. Also, I needed a little cooling off period for the bad trades I took on Tuesday. It all worked out well and look forward to next week.

Below, I marked up my screen with the turning points as I did yesterday but I took the indicator off. I just have the signals as they were generated. I screened out only a few of the very obvious no trades, but marked up most of the trades generated just by that one indicator as I did yesterday. I look at a lot more than indicators, I look at price action through its structure, to see if the components are there for the trade. The indicators, only confirm what I see already through the price. That is how it works for me. I know others use it the other way around. Using the indicators to confirm price. I don’t teach that or do that. If you learn how good price structure looks like, you will be looking for something very specific. When the indicators confirm your timing, it can give the learning trader a little more confidence to take the trade. But over time, seeing the same patterns again and again, we learn to look for what makes up a good trade just by its structure.

Anyone who wants to learn more, can. I do teach this as the “Sniper Day Trading Method” designed by me.

It is a collection of techniques and repeatable price pattern structures that happen with a great deal of consistency. Using the full spectrum of indicators I have on top of the price as well as under the price, will only make the job easier to see what is already present on the basic clean chart itself. This stuff speaks out its own language as the swings taking place, each and every day. 

There is something here for everyone. If you like to scalp trade as I do, trading with the trend and counter trend, I have that. If you prefer to only trade in the direction of the dominant trend we can set that up, if you like to trade higher time frame charts and go for a higher profit loss ratios, we can customize that for you. The principles are all the same. This will work great on Stocks as well as Forex currency pairs. The higher the time frame, the higher the risk, but the higher reward. You also get fewer trades as you go up in the time frame spectrum.

I use a small 1 point stop on most all my trades or less, but that is me. I know some in my group use 5 ticks. That is fine, but I urge all to move there stops up with price as things go your way. I like to scale out and put myself in a no loose situation and I teach that too.

I don’t only offer the trading course, I work with each trader, to not only answer there questions, but to explain it and call it out during the live market, so you can see the same thing on the screen live. I will work with any trader as long as it takes to fully understand how he or she can use the Sniper Day Trading method through screen sharing technology over Skype.

If you have questions, feel free to contact me through Skype, my screen name is SniperDayTrading. Have a great weekend.

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Scalp Trading Lesson Today -

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

Today is Wednesday, January 20th and Stock Index futures sell off in the early session.

The market did manage to pull up towards the last part of the day, which was critical. A break in support took place in the early morning sell off, bringing the 9 month rally in jeopardy, only a rebound saved the day. I can imagine, when support breaks, what kind of price action we are going to see. It will pick up, that is for sure, as it did today. The volume on the S&P 500 emini futures came in at 2.3 million contracts traded. Anything over 2 million and I consider that busy and good.

Along with the volume, came some long anticipated movement in price range. After a long sell off, the market usually goes into a small trading range, trying to shore up its losses and find a bottom. That is a good time to either step aside and let the price catch up with itself. Backing and filling, is normal after a big move up or down. If you are not skilled in picking small scalp trades in between these ranges, it is better to wait and be much more selective until a clearer break is setting itself up, in either direction. But in an accelerated drop, you will often have many opportunities to add-on, in the direction of the major break, until you get to that longer resting place. The market will often start to put in a rounding bottom, as time is passing and stop orders are adjusted and placed, to show new turning points.

Today was an interesting day. I just keep missing that opening bell. I will get there, sooner or later. It just makes things harder for me to get my daily goal. When I have to fight dull price action, it does make it harder, take longer and tries my patients. If I were trading the open, there were some real fine low risk trades for several points each.

My day turned out OK, not real happy with it, but it was fine. I do put a high standard on my trading. I took 18 trades which was a lot, and picked my daily goal plus.  I traded double the size that I have usually been trading, because of the holiday and yesterday being flat. I don’t know if that is a good idea for everyone to follow that line of thinking but it worked for me. Those with less experience, should not attempt such a bold move.

Today, I have a video, of one of the indicators I have been using, but I do not say what it is or how I have constructed it. I wanted to show a couple of bad patches that I had and how this indicator confirmed that I should not be entering the trade long. I got a little stubborn and re-entered the trade a few times, which really hurt me. I saw the move I was waiting for, but they were taking it down only to push it up. I only saw the pushing it up part and took my eye off the ball.

This is one of the things I often talk about, “do not form an overly strong opinion of market direction”, let the market tell you which way it is going. Well, I did have two bad little patches where I only saw what I wanted to see. That can really kill you. This was one of my biggest problems. I was temporarily blind to the price action which said, “I am going down, not up”. Pretty simple, but at times we lose focus and concentration, only to make mistakes like this. Being able to come back and maintain composure is vital. With decent movement, following the rules will guide you to the destination.

I have usually two indicators that I look at underneath the price and a few things on top of the price to guide me through my method setups. The thing is, I have trained my eyes to see what the price is saying by itself. The price is what reflects movement of the indicators, so price is always first. If you can understand why prices move and how stop orders play a big roll in thrusting the move up or down, you will be making progress.

So, take a look at the video below and see just a touch of what I use. This is not the time frame I use, it is something in between the two smaller time frames. The smaller time frame, is a bit more sensitive to price moves and you will get a lot more of them. This is where I usually take my “Scalp Trades” from. My next higher time frame works in conjuction with still yet the smaller time frame, but it is set very differently and reflects the ability to take longer moves out of the market of several points. They are both color coded and sychronized to each other in all aspects.

My highest time frame is able to see the bigger picture, this is clasified as the dominant trend. The other time frames trade in unison with this time frame, at times it trades counter trend and often with this dominant trend to capture larger point moves. It is all structured and synergistic to each other. I use other key techniques to screen out which trades are better than others, which is not really hard to do.

Scalp trading has been classified as the hardest of all trading methods, but the way that I address it, makes it a  lot simpler to get a handle on. In a trending market, you can clean up. In a choppy market you still come out on top. What ever the market does you have the upper hand.

Stops are apart of trading and I always use them. I usually start out with a 4 tick stop on all trades, whether it is a scalp or a set up for a 3 point plus move. I almost immediately move my stop to three ticks after I enter, when I see that I entered the market correctly. One tick in my favor will get me to move my stop up and often times depending on my entry, I will be able to move it to three immediately.

When I trade my method correctly, I will be getting 80 to 90 percent winning trades. The key is, trade it correctly. Many days last year when I was trading a lot more and with more contracts, I had 20 to 30 trades in a row without a loss, in one day. The price action was a lot better than with bigger ranges.

Wow, I see I have written too much. Tomorrow I will continue on “Fear & Greed”, with the focus on greed.

Good Trading

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Controlling Greed and your Trading Emotions

Wednesday, January 13th, 2010

Today is Tuesday, January 12th and the momentum has slowed the last two days.

Todays Index’s were down across the board, with the NASDAQ getting the worst, followed by the S&P -10 points and the Dow, -30 points. We are very close to the extended March 6th trend line support on these index’s. If that support breaks, it will be the first clue that we may have turned the corner on the rally. But still it remains intact and all is well.

As I had thought, today we saw the first signs of life in the futures market, with volume coming in at over 2 million contracts. Just what I was saying yesterday, that 2 million contracts traded in the emini futures market is considered good volume and we hit it today. It has been a long time, probably longer than a month with this kind of volume.

As day traders, we need volume to push the market around, otherwise it becomes more difficult for traders to make money. It is always easy for them lose money and with low volume, bingo, you are there.

Most traders do not know how to trade in shallow trading ranges and end up getting beat up pretty bad. But if you know how to Scalp Trade this market, taking a little out of the middle, you can survive in any kind of trading environment. That is not easy to do for most people and there will be those that say it is foolish to try. Probably because they were not able to make it work for them. Traders are doing this all across the globe and they are taking it from those who think they can.

Some people only scalp trade and that term can mean different things for different people. To me, taking 2,3 or 4 ticks, will qualify as a scalp. Others will call taking a 2-4 point profit on the S&P emini’s, a scalp. So, the term is used widely. If I can make a profit on these small trades while keeping my losses to an equal amount 1 to 1, I am doing OK, because my percentage is pretty high. You need to have 60% or better with the better being more like 75 and up.

When I trade, I look for both kinds of trades. If the market will give me an extended move, often I position myself to capture it. At times I take half off early which gives me the extra ability to ride the move out. It’s a good way to trade.

In my trading today, I did not do as well as I had wanted, but I had a few bigger trades to cover myself. I came in late in the day and missed some big moves short. Overall I think a came a little short of my daily goal because of commission, but close. I had 10 trades 5 gains 5 losses, but had a few trades for higher point returns. As I said I was off. Lack of concentration and I did not take a break from a training session I had with a student.

My timing and concentration was off, with the first two trades as loses. They were not good entries and it cost me. I could have avoided  some of the lose by closing the trade out early as I normally would do once I start to lose the edge. To me and my method, the Trading Edge, is clearly defined and when I lose it, I need to get out, often avoiding  my full stop out of 1 S&P point. I start out with a 1 point stop on all trades, but it almost instantly goes to three ticks when I get one tick of movement in my favor usually when I am in scalp mode.

Often times I am able to catch trades for several points as I did last Friday with a 4 and 5 point gain. It does depend on the price action and what the market gives you. If the markets clamed up and its daily trading range shrunk, many traders would suffer, because they only know how to trend trade. When its choppy, they often stay out, but only after they got burned by non directional non moving market. Being able to Snipe or pick off a few trades makes life a lot easier, providing that you can do it. You end up having the ability to pull a few points a day out of the market, no matter what kind of market you have.

I will make a few comments from where I left off yesterday, about needing all three components to become successful as a trader. It does not matter what you trade, these are things everyone in this business needs.

We all need to know how to trade, by following a methodology or system of some kind. Next you need trading discipline, as it is often talked about.  The last thing is, you need to be aware of the forces that are naturally working against you. What forces are you talking about?  Well, for starters, yourself. When trading, there is something called our human nature. That nature says many things about us and our ability to become profitable. It is to often, the unseen things that holds us back from realizing our dreams.                                                                                                                         ————————————————————————————————————————————————-Let me focus on one point and see how far we go. GREED. That is a human emotion that all of us are faced with. We did not learn it, it comes very natural for most of us. I believe, we need to unlearn it or decide ahead of time, by an active decision to not allow this emotion to take root in us. If we can, it will make so many things better not only for our trading endeavors, but in every other area of our lives, good stuff.

The only way we can ever address it, is if we are first aware of it. After that, what are we going to do, to get a handle on it?  This emotion has been one of the leading causes for traders to blow up there accounts.

We need to be content with modest gains when we have them. The opposite of content is discontent and the twin brother of discontent is greed.

Unless you are content with your piece of the market, you will continue to strive for more. In trying to get more, you will lose what you have. Take control of your trading and your emotions. Trade with a purpose and a goal.

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Live S&P Futures Trading Video’s Today

Monday, November 2nd, 2009

Today is Monday, November 2nd and the Market holds.

Well, we were anticipating some pretty important market action today and so far so good. The Dow was up about 75 points today, but in order to slow down and turn this market around, we will have to see about 75 more Dow points to the upside. That is current overhead resistance and will need to break above that (9860) pretty decisively.

I think I said it all in yesterdays post, so I won’t repeat myself here again. We just need some time to see how this is going to play out and the above scenario lays out the other side of the equation.  Tomorrow, I will post a daily chart of the Dow and S&P to better show you what I have been saying.

Today, I took 3 trades starting around the New York afternoon session, 11 a.m. West Coast.  The first was a split trade and half came off at only 3 ticks, the second half was stopped out for -4 ticks. I was looking for the turn and just a touch early. So this trade gave me a net loss of  -1 tick on half the position,- $12.50.

The next trade, I did find the turn that I was looking for and picked up + 1 point on 2 contracts and let the other half run for +8.25 points. I was looking for prices to get a little higher but I did not push it, I got out at 1035.25 and I saw a potential high for the move at 1038. We came within 2 ticks of that trade high call at 1037.50 before the market retreated 6 points.

I re-entered long right at one of my “Turning Points” at 1033 and did not take half off early like I normally do but let the market take me to exactly where I thought it would, with the whole position. Once I was getting close to my target area, I took off half the position at +5.75 points of profit. I gave the other half some room to work, so it could make an attempt to hit the high side of 1040. It did not make it and I got stopped out at +4.25 points on the other half.

That was all quite OK.  I did notice that after I got stopped out, that the price did turn just after and move up to hit the 1040 level I had called. 

We were running out of time, but I did and still do see 1043 before the move is finished, but that will probably come in the night session or in tomorrow market. 

On that pull back, off the first good move, I was looking for prices to come down to 1031.75, which was 6 points off the previous high. Well, we came within 1 tick, 1031.50.

I make reference to all of this in the video’s I have posted below. These are live trading video’s of everything I just wrote above. The first three are tied to the first two orders and the last two are tied to the last trade.

I am not really saying how I come up with these trades on the video’s but I am reading price action. I do have a custom indicator that I have created that gives you these “Turning Points” and only risks 1 S&P point on the trade.  I do build my screens up with a few more tools to complement each style of trading I am in.

If I were to trade, this mornings session, there were good low risk turning points present there as well and would have easily gotten my daily goal, (2 to 4 points)  

Around 9 a.m. West Coast time, the market gave some traders a big gift, a 16 point sell off. I am sure I would have had some of that. I do see possibly getting out once and re-entering again short, but that was a fantastic move. Their were great add-on spots on the way, if you so chose to, but, what I am saying is these ”Turning Points”, happen all day, when the market is moving.

Yesterday was just incredible for my “Turning Point” signals. The market was definitely moving and if you knew where those low risk entry points where and positioned yourself in font of it, you would have done well. They were happening all day long, one after another, for huge moves.  My stops on the entries were still one point and the majority worked out for multiple point gainers.  

When the market is not moving much and price action is quite, I love to trade out of my T-1 scalp screen. Very accurate for short moves, averaging about 3/4 point each. I really only need a few of these to hit my daily goal and do just that, if the market is moving or not. Even in a slow chop zone, if you follow the method, it comes out. I will say, that the opposite is true as well. I am thinking and speaking to myself here. When I don’t follow my method and at times I don’t, just like everyone else, it does not usually work out and that is a good thing, believe it or not. I do not want to reinforce negative behavior and am glad the trades do not work when I go outside my method.

That is the exception, not the rule, because I do a pretty good job in following my method, plan and rules. The same will be true for anyone else who attempts to do the same.

These turning points are very easy to see and have only a few conditions attached to them before you can enter the trade, not to hard and very clear. I have all of this layed out in my 80 page manual and DVD video series. The price for my course is coming down as I have stated before. Any one interested to learn more, contact me at vinnie@sniperdaytrading.com

http://www.screencast.com/t/ZHl13cgkmDz2 

http://www.screencast.com/t/fUjVI35OFQQw 

http://www.screencast.com/t/JzGvvo6Ihy2

http://www.screencast.com/t/IZn8fKfNoM2 

http://www.screencast.com/t/9RC43BbNjSjh

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Will Dow Jones Industrial support hold?

Monday, November 2nd, 2009

This post is for Fridays session, October 30th.

The market sold off like fiercely on Friday and took the Dow down about 250 points. The S&P was off about 30 points. I did think that a re-test of the Wednesday and Thursdays low would come, but not so fast. I thought we had at least one more day to top out for the counter trend rally. There was news that came out on Friday, not really sure what it was to tell you the truth, but I could only imagine that it wasn’t good and the market reacted to it. It is to be expected.

Let me tell you, that in the month of September and October, the general public has become bullish. The last two months has only produced paltry gains when compared to the gains of the previous six months. That is where all of the money has been made. The general public is always late to the party and I don’t imagine that this time is going to be any different.

Mondays session is going to tell all, at least for now. What I mean is as I was telling you last week that the Dow has been outperforming the S&P and that was a problem. Well, it is not only the S&P that it is outperforming but the other index’s, but in a bigger way.

Based on my experience and I did not see this or hear this from anywhere, but years of seeing price action at work, the institutions are lightening up their riskier positions and reallocating equity assets in the high quality Dow Stocks. I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago, if I remember correctly. That is pretty typical at market tops

The Nasdaq Index is at a double bottom from its most recent pivot point low, something that the S&P is thinking about doing, to follow suit. The Russel 2000 Index has already overwhelmingly broke its most recent pivot low, by a wide margin. The Dow on the other hand has not broken down yet at all, but is sitting right on a major trend line support.

So, the Dow is the strongest, next comes the S&P 500, then the Nasdaq and lastly the Russel 2000. If the Dow holds and moves higher, the other indexes will only be making a counter trend rally, but will still remain in a down-trend, stopping at overhead resistance. Once the Dow does break down, all of the other Indexes will only go down that much farther and faster. There is a lot of room for the market to move back to the middle of its range of the last 8 months.

The last thing I will say about all of this tonight is, “Earnings”. I don’t follow this much either, but just the big picture. The projected earning that Standard & Poors are putting out for the S&P 500 for next year are a bit of a fairy tale. They have been constantly wrong and now they are painting a wonderful rebound of large proportion in earnings. Anything is possible, but I doubt it. I had heard, according to Bloomburg, that the S&P has had declining earnings for 9 straight quarters and only this last quarter have they been able to increase earnings. Those increases are from very depressed levels, not that hard. The increase in earnings in my estimation is coming from cost cutting in various forms. You can only cut cost so much and for so long, before you can not cut anymore. Where are the increases in sales going to come from. No one is spending and no one is lending and money??? INTERESTING.

That is why, the market is going to adjust itself to reflect where it is going to be in 6-9 months from now, probable lower. Just now the S&P is turning their earnings, like this month. If you invest in these companies now, you are going to pay way to much. But that is what the public does. You needed to be invested at least 6 months ago to be able to enjoy some of this rally, not two months ago, like I talked about at the top of todays post.

We need to see what the Dow is going to do in Mondays session. If it to breaks support, then all of the indexes will have downside momentum working for it. But if it can hold, there is now room for it to clear 10,300, a complete 50 retracement from it’s all time high. The S&P numbers for the same retracement are 1120. We got close.

The sentiment numbers backed off just a little last week. It is sitting at 48% Bulls. A reading of 55% is considered bearish. We only got as high as 51. One last push to the numbers above could push the reading to 55%, the big word in there is COULD.

Friday’s session was incredible. So many great clear signals all day long. I only took one trade and it was split up, what I call a “T-2″.   The first half for +1 point and the second part for 3 1/2 points. I was in the market for less than 1 minute on the first part and 4 more minutes for the second part. I really only had my screen open for 15 minutes, start to finish. There will be plenty of other trading days to capture higher point returns. But my daily goal was meet, no struggle, no fuss, no mess. Just the way I like it.

Until tomorrow

 

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Market Moves to New Highs !

Tuesday, October 13th, 2009

Today is Monday October 12th and the day was very slow and can be attributed to in being Columbus Day, a Holiday for many services, although the market was open.

The Dow pushed up to the high for the year or just equal to it. The same for the S&P, plus 4 points for the session. I think there is going to be a push higher, but the upside is going to be limited. Last week, I said what I thought was going to happen and so, we will have to wait and see.

The daily charts are to slow for me to trade off of. If it was my only trading time frame, I would die. I do not do well in holding on to positions for very long. It took me years to realize that the trading I not only enjoy, but am good at is the very short term stuff. That is usually the absolute opposite for most traders. When they shorten the time frame down, they start to lose control. In a longer time frame chart and trading model, you have much more time to react and analyze your trade. Your stop is always going to be higher as your time frame goes up.

That is one reason why I like the short stuff. My risk is very limited to 1 S&P point or less. I know some people would say, that is to small of a stop, how do you do that. Well, I do and am doing just fine with it. I have 3 models to trade from and they are dependent on market conditions. If you have short swings and limited trending action, you would do better to enter all of your position at once and exit it all for your fill. If the swings are longer and for multiple points, you would be better off holding on for longer point values.

Some like to use computer models for their trading and I can tell you, that I don’t think they are going to do as good as a human can. But it all depends on which human you are talking about. I can tell you now, that most traders are not going to make it at this and will end up in defeat. It is not that they do not want it bad enough, or try hard enough, but that they do not have the right mindset for coming out on top.

To be successful at short term trading, you will need two essential things. One is tangible and the other is intangible. First a solid plan on how to approach the market with clearly defined objectives. Many get caught up in ratio’s, I do not. I get caught up with getting my daily goal for the day. That is what is needed to be consistent. A steady modest point value each day. I hear a lot of traders and people in the industry say that is not possible. I beg to differ. It may be impossible for them, but not for everyone.

You need to be different from everyone else or you will get the same results as everyone else. So what is the second thing that is essential besides a trading method and plan. Well, it is the mental side of trading that so many forget about. Trading is emotional, in that it involves making decisions that have a direct effect on the individual’s pocket book, always difficult. That is what moves the market, the emotional decisions of others. Unless you are prepared to overcome the normal mind games that come with the territory, you will fail like most people do.

Trading is a net zero sum game. Yes, you are providing something to the market place by helping to create liquidity, but I am sure you would like to see some of that liquidity end up in your account. It will not happen unless you have an ability to see what you are doing and control your emotions. No revenge trading OK. Don’t try and get your losses back all in one trade. Making decisions like that are only the start to a downward spiral. Relax, stick to your plan. You need to be your own coach. Talk to yourself while you are trading and see what you are doing matches your trading plan and method. If it does not, do one of two things, STOP FOR THE DAY, or follow your plan and wait for the trades to come to you. Don’t go out looking for them. I have a saying, if I get in trouble, “TRADE BY EXCEPTION”. Don’t take a trade just because you think or feel you have to. Wait for the trade to come to you, most often you will be glad you did.

I at times get in to soon and only after see that I could have waited a moment or two more. Then the trade is just right in front of you to take and its a good one. The point to all of this is stay in control and be sure that you are doing the right thing. Sounds simple, but you would be surprised how many people change their plans once the trading day begins. Trade for a modest goal and stop for the day. Go do something else. Get outside, help someone else with what they are doing. We all need to have things that go beyond the trading ventures that we wish to pursue.

That is it for now, I had no idea I was going to carry on about this subject. It just comes to me as I start typing. Tomorrow, we will see what I continue with, until then, I wish you all a good day.

Tomorrow I will post the turning points or something else of value.

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A Good Lesson for Day Traders Today

Monday, September 28th, 2009

Today is Monday, September 28th and the Index’s had a nice day back up. This is the price action reversal that I was talking about last week. We needed to see a day like this after the most recent sell off and it came right on time. The Dow bounced  right off support from Friday’s session and set the stage for today’s rally, very nice.

This last pivot low is going to be very critical, in my opinion. We will need to stay above this point to keep the trend intact. If it is broken, I will have to believe that others will see it as a sign of weakness and take profit off the table. That could cause a rush for the exits and we could get a much bigger pull back. Right now, no one knows which way it is going to turn, but you can have a conditional set-up. If this, then that. If pivot low is broken, look for a meaningful pull back. More work needs to be done to establish a continuation of the current up move before a long position can be taken, so we wait and see. This is all for the daily market, which I really don’t trade off of, but follow, because everyone else does.

I trade out of some very small time frame charts that aim to capture just a small piece of the days movements. Today was a very slow day. A lot of the price action came in the pre-market, but there was some nice trades to the upside, just after the open. A little later during the New York lunch time, 12: 00 pm to 2:00 pm, things slowed considerably. This happened to be right at the high of day at that time and the market virtually stopped. A little move up, a little move down, and so on. It can be hard to try and trade during this slow period, because it will many times not produce the gains that you are looking for and frustration will set in. When that happens, it never usually turns out well. You start forcing trades and not waiting for conditions to present themselves to you.

One rule or thing traders can remember that will be of great value when you find yourself struggling. “Trade by Exception”. What do you mean, someone may say? Well, by taking this advise, you will wait until your most favorable conditions are before you, but when they are, that is when you will not hesitate, but take action immediately. If you tell yourself that, you do not have to take a trade, if my conditions are not met. I will not trade, plain and simple.

This will take the pressure off of you to perform. Relax, and know that you are in control. Wall Street is banking on you loosing control as most traders do. If you are trying to trade out of the slow time of day, you had better know what you are doing and have great timing. If you don’t you will get spanked and sent to your room, without dinner,  (lol).  You will need to learn from those mistakes or you will do it again.

Trade with purpose and definition, know what you are doing and why it is that you are doing it. After it’s all said and done, you will have the ability to go back over your trades and see which one’s were done right and which one were a mis-trade. A loss is not considered a mis-trade to me. A loss is the cost of doing business, if you are trading with focus and purpose. A mis-trade is when you force the trade, trying to make something happen. I still do this on occasion myself, but I know what I did wrong and why. I go back over the trade and see that I did not wait for the trade to shift overwhelmingly in my favor. Even if the trade is for a small target, you still need to wait. Your percentage win/loss ratio needs to be high when trading for small targets only. In a choppy market, this may be all you have available and need to adjust your thinking for very modest returns.

Today, I choose to trade at a slow direction-less time and area. It would have been better to trade the open or wait until after the lunch period, but I adjusted my expectations on direction and took what the market gave me. I was not imposing my will on the market, but taking what the market could safely give me at that time. If I was not willing to accept these conditions, my only option would be to wait the period out for more favorable conditions or not trade at all, both of which is quite alright. Remember, you live to trade another day when conditions are favorable.

Maintaining control and knowing your limitations are very important. Every trader should not think more of themselves than they ought to. Having a humble attitude towards trading is essential to a winning mindset. That does not mean you should not feel confident, you should, but your confidence should be in following your method and not solely in yourself. You will let yourself down, when you think you know better than your method. If you take a non method trade, the best thing that can happen is for you to get stopped out. This way it will force you to trade correctly and stay with what you know. Going outside, can often produce bad habits that are hard to break, only instilling a more difficult journey for you overall.

The moral of the story, know what your abilities are and try and stay with what you know. No sence in pushing yourself to become the trader that you are not. This process take a long time. It may be that you need to focus only one setup and condition and trade that. The rest will come over time. A modest daily goal of two points per day is a great place to start and finish, I might add.

http://www.screencast.com/t/IZjv1ndi                Today’s turning points and few small trades

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Scalping the S&P 500 for Daily Profit

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

Today is Thursday September 24th and all the major index’s had follow through on yesterday’s sell off.

We had mentioned that if there was follow through it could be telling us something. I do see a rising wedge in this up-trend developing, but has not broken as of yet. There is support at just under today’s low and I think this level is really going to be important to hold. This sell off is and can be expected, given that we had this big run. There is some resistance above and as stated some support below. I would be surprised if we go right through support from here. I don’t think that is going to happen. I would expect a day or two of consolidation at or around these levels and a counter trend rally, just like I mentioned earlier in the week. You usually will get a counter rally back up and at that point, the make or break point will be at hand. It is still developing and will need to see the move back up to better determine what is actually going to happen. Still can not rule out higher prices. Dow 10,000 and S&P 1100 are not far away.

I had mentioned the sentiment had been falling and that can be a good thing for the bulls. After this weeks price action, the bears will make an even stronger case for the market to drop, thinking that this must be the drop that everyone was waiting for. I am a firm believer to always look at both sides of the market and that way you will not get blinded by what you want to see happen or your preconceived opinions of market direction. Wall Street is a two way street and right now, the flow of overall traffic is still going one way. Yes we have pulled back quite a bit, but the price action is not decisive enough to warrant an all out sell. We bounced off of some stiff resistance and appear to be pulling back. Lets just watch the price action over the next few days and the bigger picture will become more clear.

Below is a short video of some of the trades I took in the S&P. These trades are out of the 100 tick chart and is by any measure a fast pass chart of price action. I look to two higher time frame charts as well but those are not mentioned or shown. It’s all about timing. When to pull the trigger and when not to. If your timing is good and you  have a road map to follow, you can do well. If you timing is off and you can not follow a clear plan of action then you most certainly will not do well. It’s just that simple. How do you know where to get in and out?  That is explained in my method in detail. Below, I have taken 15 trades in the last 90 minutes of trading and posted 54 ticks of profit and 15 gains, with one loss of -3 ticks. I show exactly where I get in and out but do not explain why and do not show any of the other parts of the method. We only need 8 ticks to capture 2 points for the day.  It can usually be had in about 30 minutes of trading everyday. If you are able to slowly increase your contract size while trading for a very conservative daily goal of 2 points, you will never worry about money again.

It is not that hard to learn, but the hard part is going to be dealing with yourself and the inevitable fear and greed which always comes into the picture when you have large sums of money at stake. There are things traders can do to overcome these obstacles, but very few ever think of what that is and even fewer are willing to do what is necessary even if they find out, what they should be doing to get to that level.

All I say is, it is possible, if you have the support and road map. I can offer both, for those who are interested. I will be coming out soon with a more favorable pricing structure for those interested that includes a much lower initial cost to get started. It should be up and posted in a couple of weeks. I am working hard on putting everything else a trader will need to get and meet there goals. It is and will be different than any other method or system out there, so stay turned.

Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/15cxliWCm7g         video of todays trades and turning points together/ 100 tick chart

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Trading Lesson: Part Four

Saturday, June 27th, 2009

Today is Saturday and as I promised, I have a little more meat for you to chew on over the week-end. Give this some serious thought for those who are motivated to excellence and victory. I am sure this stuff will help many.

I will do a recap of what I have been discussing over the last few days. These are some of the most common reasons why traders fail to take the trading efforts to the next level. It can mean the difference to actually being profitable at a minimum, weekly, if not daily basis. With modest targets a solid methodology and the self discipline to follow through with your plan, a trader with the vision and will can overcome and make it to the other side. Do you believe that you are one of those who can, or are you one that only hopes he can one day? That is the question, how bad do you want it and are you willing to make changes and sacrifices along the way to get there?

Many would be traders want the money and time freedom that trading can offer, but are unwilling to address personal blockages that hold them back. You may say you will go the extra mile, but in reality it often times is only words. All one has to do is check your actions and attitudes, if they seem to overall be the same, it may be good intentions but no real action behind it, which will result in the same outcome, struggles and frustration. It is during these times that you have an opportunity to get going with the things that will turn your struggle around. Don’t look at it as failure, but as opportunity to overcome.

If you set a daily loss limit, like you should do as previously discussed, you are immediately taking the pressure off of you. The very worst that can happen to me today is “X” amount of dollar or point loss. I use double my daily goal as my stopping point. You must resolve in your mind that you will stop for the day and come back tomorrow with a fresh start and chip away at your goal for the day. The market will give you opportunities to get more in any one day, say double, triple or better your daily goal, but you do not know which days those are, so you trade with your daily goal only in mind until it is clear that today may be a great opportunity to pick up more and you make up easily your previous losses in the week.

It is really an excellent approach to systematically handle your trading venture. Identify in yourself NOW, do you have the resolve to stop trading for the day if you have hit this point. The risk if you don’t is a massive blow to your trading account, that most up and coming traders can not afford to absorb. So, “JUST SAY NO”. You need to go over it again and again in your mind that you are going to be responsible and do just as you say. Come back tomorrow and you will be fresh with a new perspective and approach.

Trading is not a sprint, it is a marathon and you need to pace yourself or you will get burnt out and fade right out of the picture, only having memories of “should of – could of – would of “. The time is now to create what you do not have and file it away, bring it up on demand when necessary. Again, if you are able to stop trading for the day after you hit a modest daily loss limit, you will have scored a HUGE VICTORY in your trading ventures.

You may say, “What is so victorious about walking away with a loosing day”. All the reason’s I mentioned above is why. You will prove to yourself that you can do this one thing and in doing so, know that if you find yourself in that position again, you will be able to take the appropriate actions as your plan calls for yet once again. This is going to establish confidence in yourself that you are not going to blow your account up and will remain in control at all times.

Going through the process and having one day where you are able to stop at this predefined point is going to possibly be a turning point for many in and of it self. This will be a big victory for many traders who struggle to limit the real bad days that seem to come out of nowhere. The market has a way of purging the system of weak traders who struggle with this lack of control, even if you have a solid trading plan and know what it is that you are doing. If you don’t limit your losses on bad days, you will never make it. The market has a way of only letting the cream rise to the top, don’t be one of the ones that settles to the bottom.

I got off on a whole new tangent there, but all of these ideas just came to me and felt I needed to roll with the subject for  while, before I run out of room for this posting.

I see that I have so much more I can say and will just go back over Friday’s posting and touch on that one point again. Look at both sides of the market and keep your biases to a minimum as far as short term direction.

This is so important. Don’t find yourself taking stop after stop and wonder what the heck is going on. If you take two stops in any one directional move, you are out of sync. If the market is going to break and you enter, you may be off on your timing or the market may push you out by a tick or so, but the direction is still right and you believe the move is ready, so you re-enter again and take your position, only to find out that you were wrong again and the market is just toying with you and many others to create doubt and take your capital.

Don’t give a third opportunity to do it again. Wait it out and give it some time, get up and doing something to get the blood flowing and re-access the situation after you see what is really happening. Often times the market will just go into a chop zone and start swinging high to low knocking out stops in both directions, step back after your second stop and wait it out. Once the dust clears you will see the real trade develop and it may be a 4 or 5 point gainer, easily making up for your earlier mishap, but you won’t be in that position if you don’t stop and wait it out. SELF DISCIPLINE, find it with-in yourself before you continue to trade and you will be glad you did.

Lastly, just think about this. When you cross the street at a busy intersection, you may be waiting for the light to turn green, we all do that, but when the light changes do you just start walking without looking hoping that others will obey the rules or do you look both ways before crossing. I always do, and you should too, if you value your life. Looking both ways says you see the cars coming in both directions and you know the risks. The same is true with trading. Waiting for the light to turn green would equate with just following indicators and going when it says to go. If you fail to look both ways you are taking a chance with your life and assuming all is well. Don’t take that chance, “ALWAYS LOOK AT BOTH SIDES OF THE MARKET AND KEEP AN OPEN MIND”.

Trade on, fellow travelers.

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Are Trading Markets getting ready?

Wednesday, June 10th, 2009

Today is Tuesday, June 8th and the markets tried to rally again, but no go. NOT YET !

Well, it’s only a matter of time until the indexes get going again. I see the market marking a little time by moving sideways. As I said yesterday, the momentum is still up and you have to give it to the bulls. If there is one big down day, that may change things, but it still looks good for a continued move up That is just how I see it at this time.

The day’s trading went well with over 3 times daily goal, not too bad for a couple of hours. Not many losses at all. I will have to say, that I need to work on my first trade of the day. It looks like I am a little off on the open. I think I am still adjusting to the new schedule – or I may never get used to it. I am not a morning person! I guess it will work itself out, but I do have to give this some thought. It is much better to have your first trade right. It sets the stage for a smoother morning.

One thing I did a little differently today was pick the top of the market just right and still only work with a 1 point stop. I had three ticks of heat, but not 4. Still alive and made it to the other side where I picked up 5 solid points. I closed up the computer after I placed the trade and said that if my stop holds, great. When I opened it back up an hour later, I may have a nice surprise. Well I did, with a 5 point gain right to the bottom of range on the close.

I like it when that happens.  I only put one contract on so it was not a huge $ gain but it still counts. My stop will cover me even if the computor is off. Again, I don’t do this often but I felt I saw the very top of today’s market and did not have time to sit and wait for it to do its thing. So that’s why I went the way I did on that.

Quick post today, I will return tomorrow with the latest !

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