Today is Wednesday, December 16th and “Fed Day” turned out to be a flop.
You would hardly have known that today was Fed Day, if you did not know, other than the initial swings that you often get after the interest rate decision was released. Everything as far as movement was minimal. It was no different from a normal day after the announcement. There was no break as far as direction and we are still locked in a mode of indecision. But that day will be coming to a close sometime soon, that you can be assured.
As I mentioned, if the market is able to hold on to its gains without any major drop and I say, “if”, then we have a very good chance that you will see some of that selling after January 1st. The gains are to large for the institutions to just leave them their on the table without locking in some of it so that they look good in front of their people. The temptation will be too great. It is never a good idea to let taxes determine your investment decisions but it happens all the time. This year it may be a bigger factor than other years as I mentioned, because of the large gains booked by the S&P, around 66% from the lows set on March 6th, 09.
I don’t want to make more of it than it is, but I only want to point it out so you may be aware of it, that is all. That is part of the reason why I think you may read this blog, to get insight that others are not seeing or talking about.
Today I did not trade again and may not for a little while, I don’t like the price action much this last week. Although after the fed announcement it did get a little better and could have gotten involved, but I was working with someone and did not feel like I needed to trade.
That is always a good idea, you don’t have to trade every day. There is no law that says you must trade, or you will lose your status as a day-trader. The reason why I say this is also because, it is always a good exercise to show yourself that you are in-control. That is one of the deep essential ingredients needed to come out as a consistent earner. Don’t gloss over that statement, it is more powerful and meaningful than meets the eye at first glance.
If you lose control, you can just forget about ever being able to count on day trading the emini’s for daily income, it just is not going to happen. I don’t mean to pop anyones bubble, but the more honest you are with yourself, the closer you will get to achieving your goals. You must and I say, must leave your ego at the door. There is no room for it in this business. We all learn something new and should have a teachable spirit about us. The day you lose that, is the day, you will fall. Your ability to get back up will depend on how soon you realize that you need to stay humble while trading and never get cocky.
Let me give you an example. If you look back or think back in your own trading, when you booked your biggest gains you will see just following those gains will be some of your biggest loses. Now, ask yourself, “why is that true”? Here, let me answer it for you. When you experience your largest gains or good gains, you will almost always see it followed by large loses and the reason is human nature is as such, to get cocky and think more highly about your ability than you should. The loses are just a reminder that you are ahead of yourself and you will not be able to go farther until your thinking is adjusted to allow yourself to hold onto those gains and add more.
It goes back to last weeks posts, on the way you think determines your outcome. Unless you monitor your thoughts and write them down quickly, they will just blow past you like the wind and you will have lost a valuable opportunity to learn and grow from your mistakes. Change your thinking and you will change your results. It should go as deep as possible so that is it not just mental assertion, but let it turn into core beliefs, values, disciplines, combined with execution.
All of that takes work and guidance from someone who has been there and done that. I am still learning everyday and will continue to learn probably until I die because I have trained myself to have a teachable spirit which allows me to continue to absorb what I need to accomplish my highest goals.
If you settle for average, that is what you will get. If your goals are to just get by and make a modest living, you will never allow yourself to achieve more. Why put restraints on progress and I don’t only mean monetary progress.
It has been said that, the average person has 30,000 thoughts that run through his or her head in an average day. Don’t know if that is exactly true, but the point is, a lot of thoughts come inside our mind every day. We need to learn how to control those thoughts and direct them for good, our good and others. By doing this, you take charge and self direct how you want things to go. If you don’t, you will be pulled in every direction with little purpose and fulfillment.
This directly relates to trading, as it does many other area’s of life. While trading if you get thoughts that tempt you to get in to early because of thoughts about making a ton of money, your timing will be compromises and you will have allowed greed to take over as a controlling emotion. Your results will suffer and often times a domino effect can take place just from one bad move. Cut it off at the pass, don’t let that first thought take root, write it down and counter it with the truth as per your trading method.
Well, I am out of time and was on a roll, but maybe I can pick it up from here tomorrow. Below a video showing where we are and the challenges we face.

