Today is Monday, November 30th and the market has stabilized from last weeks Dubia scare.

The amount of money at risk in Dubia was 80 billion or so and the credit markets in Europe is where the majority of funds are from. In the big scope of things, it is really not that much money when compared to the U.S markets but the fear is that the default risk will spread to other nations.

As far as the technical picture is concerned, I mentioned last week that the S&P index needed to stay above the 1085 level on a closing basis and so far it has. Support has come in in-fact exactly at those levels and we saw a continued retracement up from Friday’s sell-off.

In the daily and weekly charts, we are coming off the brick wall that has been established above. The short-term momentum in the 120 minute cash S&P chart is down, even though the retracement rally up has been impressive.

 If the S&P futures break 1090 tomorrow, that should trigger some instant selling. We will see  heavy resistance around 1100. The lines in the sand have again been drawn.

Last week I wrote about the bearish sentiment being so light, only 17%. Typically that is a strong indication that things may turn down as far as history is concerned. The other side of the equation that I did not mention was the bullish sentiment, which stands at a little over 50%. Typically a percentage of 55% or greater is considered a strong warning sign that a drop may be coming. We are close, but not really there yet. What is it going to take to get the last hold out in the bullish camp to bit?  Could it be a rally back up yet again, I really don’t know, but time will tell.

I don’t want to get to caught up in catching the top, it can be a distraction if I let it, so I am going to just let the price tell us what it wants to do.

There are plenty of opportunities throughout the day to catch a few points out of all this movement, that is the main objective in what we do. I don’t have to be right all the time about exact turning points on the daily charts, but if I get a few short-term momentum plays, what more could I ask for.

With that being said here are my trades for today; (these are in ticks) +4 +2 / +4 +6 / flat / + 2 / +2 +3 / flat  / -1  / .

It was OK, since I came in at the slow time of day and had already missed all the big swings. I got more than I really needed and can not complain. Two points is my minimum daily target but I do prefer 3 or 4. If I get a daily stop out -4 points total on the day, it helps to ensure me that I will still be on track for the week.

I have as part of my rules and trading method a daily stop out point for the day. If I go minus 4 S&P points in any one day I stop trading. That may come in many trades, 4 one point losses, or 2 one point losses and 4 half point losses, but what ever the combination, if I go – 4 points for the day, I hang it up.

Controlling your losses is just as important as capturing your gains, but not many people think of it that way. I will tell you now, unless you look at it exactly that way, you will eventually loose it.

In your quest for success, traders to often only look to the prize, but there are dangers out there and the biggest danger lurking in the dark is “YOU”. Unless you get a handle on controlling your losses, you wont make it.

What good would it do if you take one step forward and two steps back. If you do not have the discipline to control yourself and your trading funds, just take a long break until you are sure you can. Many times it may be one step forward and 5 steps back and that is the problem. You just can’t let yourself go that far back. You can always make it up another day if it is manageable.

If you are off big, for what ever reason, don’t try and make it up all at once. The ego of many traders is what will cause them to do just that. Don’t let that be you. Be humble and respect the markets. Overconfidence is and can be a killer as well. If you are having an off day and struggling, just stop. In fact you don’t have to wait until you go minus 4 points. If you are +2 points then -2 points and going back and forth, there is no shame in saying, you are off and will do better tomorrow.

The idea is don’t take big losses. That is why sometimes I take break even trades and small losses of only 1 or 2 ticks. I really don’t like to take a full point loss if I don’t have to. I know many traders would love to be able to do that and they can, but you have to know how.

Trading comprises many components. The one most people only see is, making points of profit and that is most certainly a key component. You will never get to where you want to go with making profit. The second thing is keeping it and if you have to give it up, give up as little as possible. The third is, don’t let yourself beat you. We are our own worst enemy.

You need a plan for all three of these if you are going to succeed as a trader in the long run. It just so happens that I teach and cover all of these area’s in detail, giving the ambitious trader the advantages he or she needs. It really is up to you, now what will you do?

http://www.screencast.com/t/YmU2N2ZmMzA      Todays turning points and my trades