Posts Tagged ‘aftermarket’

Reading the Stock Market

Monday, April 16th, 2012

Today is Tuesday April 16th, 2012 and another day in the trading world. The market movement has gotten a little better in the last few weeks and hope we see more of it.

The activity level goes in cycles with strong and weak movement, but as day traders, we have to take the good with the bad. Movement means opportunity and the lack of it could mean that traders struggle.

Taking what is available based on the current read of the market is a skill that can be learned. It is not easy, that is for sure, but it can be looked upon like you would read a research paper. It may not make sense at first, but as you absorb the content, it starts to speak to you.

That can only come about when you know the language and that is again something that can be learned. Every day the market exhibits a structured approach to what it does. Many who look on just see the moves up and down and it may look like it is random. I would say that it only looks random and there is much more structure than your natural eye see’s.

Separating the market noise from the key area’s of interest, is where is starts. As traders we don’t have to track and be ahead of every move, but just those moves that show a high probability of success in our favor. That means the majority on the other end are getting it wrong. What will make us confident enough to put up a margin with a controlling interest of many times that investment in the anticipation that it will roll in our favor?  The answer to that is knowing the market language and what to expect when the structure presents itself as such.

In today’s market, we saw just that language played out many times. Again, you don’t have to have every tick tracked and traced, but only those that present opportunity with a greater degree of success. You need a trading method that you can count on and one that is proven to perform and you yourself need to be reliable enough to execute it and not get taken captive by your wants and desires. Its not about you, but it all depends on you.

In today’s trading I did well, hitting double daily trading goal but it could have been a lot better had I woken on time. I won’t bore you with the details, but you can look onto the days chart and see what I mean. I had about a 12 point run just up to the opening bell and let it all slip away for a 3 tick loss. I did catch a early couple of trades and small loss in the night session, but it all turned out just slightly ahead.

Later in the session I took on a couple of small losses but saw what I was looking for with some nice extended gains scaling out towards my target area at the top for a nice day.

I did not post for Friday, so I will include Friday’s session here today as well. I remember that session had a large sell off early on then needed time to absorb that drop. That meant slower action and smaller moves. This is something of what I was talking about in being able to read the market. It said, it was not going to move big, but small moves yes. That is when I need to taylor at least in part some of my exits for smaller gains because that is all there is if I am trading during that time. My only choice is to wait for things to come together and that did happen in the last 30 minutes of Friday’s session. I called out the possible drop right at the breaking point but I was done for the session with daily goal in hand.

Tomorrow is a new day and new beginnings and so until then, good trading to all. Vince

Friday’s trading day below by itself;

Early pullback but market closed slightly higher

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

Today is Monday September 14th and the markets pulled back but the pull back started on Sunday evenings night trading. From Fridays close to the session lows, was over 12 point, but the market started its recover and at the open it just continued all the way back up and then some. The S&P close up about 6 points but as I write this the aftermarket is off 4 points and now is very close to being flat for todays session. I think we may still have some downside coming, but again I will leave an open mind and just read the charts. Today we did hit a 50 % retracement point from not the all time high but a significant turning point (1433),  close to the all time high, that is being watched by numerous traders and investors across the globe. I will be watching closely for a downside break. Todays action put in a very large pivot point that if broken will send prices at a minimum back to the middle of the range. Tomorrow I will show you a 60 minute chart of where prices are likely to go when and if we get that break.

I wanted to make a comment on an article that I saw, about an Nobel Prize winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz. He said that the problems in the banking industry are now worst off than they were in 2007 before the crisis.  In the U.S. the to big to fail banks have become even bigger. He also stated that we are going into an extended period of a weak economy. This guy was the former chief economist at the World Bank. I am not easily impressed by credentials but this news also confirms similar reports that I have come to hear, about the same thing. There is trouble brewing out there and it will spell trouble for the S&P and there forward looking earnings projections. Keep your eyes open and be careful.

Below are some of the trades my method generated today. You can see the up and down arrows at key turning points. This is out of the 233 tick chart and most of them are in the up direction because that is what the market was saying at the time. I did think that we were going lower around the 10:30 am area, but the market quickly reversed and blew past overhead resistance to continue higher. I did see the trade at 11:30 pretty clearly after a long waiting period. Initially it did look short, but quickly saw things differently to adjust for the breakout.

Tomorrow will be an interesting day, because there will be a lot of news coming out which should bring in the volume, always a good thing.

Last point for today, the market sentiment numbers for last week softened up a little at 48% bullish. That is off about 3%. If we are going to go higher, this easing off is a very good thing. We were getting close to being to optimistic and that could be signalling the top, but that did not happen. If we are able to pull back over the next few days this would set the stage for yet another easing in the numbers. When the bulls take back control, there will be room to the upside for the numbers to adjust themselves to the upside, giving us the signal, but at higher prices.

That is it for now.

http://www.screencast.com/t/2CeF6TyV             Turning points for part of the session

The Markets Are Back on the Move

Wednesday, July 15th, 2009

Today is Tuesday July 14th and all is well.

I took some time off recently and will probably start trading again and keeping my blog updated. I have my internet connection problems behind me and feel pretty rested.

Today’s market was an extension from Monday’s big day. I could say even though I did not post it, I knew that we were going to bounce big in Monday’s session. If it did not happen on Monday it was going to be Tuesday. It took off on Monday with a couple of head fakes early on which were great opportunities to jump on board.

As I write this, the after market trading has spiked up to the top of the channel and hit a little resistance there at 912 on the S&P emini. Earnings on Intel came out and were favorable so I guess they liked it and bit up the whole market – nice excuse.

The market is acting as I thought so far. The false head and shoulders neckline break threw a lot of people for a loop. The market is not out of the woods yet but it is looking better for a push up through the overhead resistance. We will have to wait and see, but keep your eyes open for some good moves to the upside, keep your timing sharp.

I do think the gap of about 6 points will be filled sometime tomorrow or even in this evening’s aftermarket session. Should be an active day tomorrow. The volume has been way off with only about 2 million contracts trading, instead of the the 3 million plus we are used to seeing – “the summer”.  This is the time to take time off or scale back and the street is apparently in full stride.

The sentiment numbers look steady but I will be looking at this week’s numbers closely to see if there are any changes. Market Harmonic’s http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/investors_intelligence.htm link will take you right to the free information, but it is two or three days behind. The numbers come out on Tuesday but you won’t see it until around Thursday unless you subscribe, still good for free. I had thought the sentiment would have turned more bearish during the recent downtrend, but as I have said, not a lot of movement there yet, that is why I will be looking this week.

This push may be the push up that I had suspected we would be getting that would take us through the rest of the summer and push us up to a higher resistance level, from where we would struggle and eventually fall hard and fast. It looks like the scenario that I had painted months back is still in place, time will tell. Currently short term bullish, long term bearish, that is my position for months now and this pullback is just exactly as I previously talked about. A pull back that was not very deep catching the bears by surprise and another push to new highs for the big set up?

A few screen shots of some potential trades.

http://www.screencast.com/t/cyGEJaQ6Pn

http://www.screencast.com/t/PxR0rLv5