Posts Tagged ‘100 tick’

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Recap of the Week & extra training video

Sunday, February 15th, 2009

Well, its Saturday February 14th and I want to give you a little update of daily price action on the S&P.

I have also a small recap of potential trades in the 233 tick for Friday, as well as the ones I did take, but now showing you in the 233. I trade off of the 100 tick but I have been looking  at the 233 recently with my normal screen shots of the 400 tick and 1600 tick. The 1600 tick is about the equivalent of a 3 minute bar. 

 In the first video below, I am going over the cash S&P market in the “Daily” and then in a 5 minute bar chart. Towards the end of that video, I am showing a screen shot of the 1600 tick and I would recommend that you pause the video so you can get a better look at the signals and what I am looking at.

I don’t trade in the 1600 but use it for reference only at this time. A person can trade that time frame and do well. You will usually have to allow for a bigger stop, but you can work around that a little by using smaller time frames to find you a low risk area to enter. Once you are comfortably aboard, you can ride it up for some large profits. To trade this time frame, I would say you are going to be trading quite a bit longer, 2-3 hours minimum and possibly all day. You will need to wait for the trades to set up and then to move in your direction. This all takes time. It requires patience and a lot of discipline, but for the person who does not want to take small profits, it is an alternative. So be sure and stop the video and take a closer look. I did not have much time left at the end of that video, so it fades away pretty fast.

In the second video, I am showing the 233 tick chart. This is the largest time frame I can use and still stick to a 4 or 5 tick stop. I have been doing the training series on this time frame so you can see what Friday morning’s trading looks like and the first of my daily trading goals. When I placed my orders, I was in the 100 tick chart but used the 233 as a reference.

In this second video, mid point, is a small caption of a screen shot in my website. This is showing only the first part of three parts and points out what is possible to accomplish after 16 weeks of patience, discipline, focus and the ability to control greed and fear. Some people will not be able to follow the plan because emotionally they may not be ready to receive that much money in their life. If you are one of the “Others”, then I suggest that you start training your mind to do just that. This plan is slow enough to truly be possible and it is fast enough to get you going exactly in the direction you want to go. 

On the surface, some people may not think that 2 points is enough to make a lot of money and may question my method. But if you see the power of doing the same thing over and over again, you may just become a believer.

You may have remembered me saying that trading is about probabilities and patterns. If you establish a pattern of booking 2 points a day after commission, and be sure that you do it every day, then you are on your way. If you fall behind, you can make it up on another day with  greater gains.

It has been said that if someone does the same thing for 21 days, he or she has established a habit. Now, who wants to get started with forming that habit?  After the 4 week mark which is 20 trading days, you are starting on $2,500 for that week. If you left it merely at that rate, you would be making $10,000 for the month. But I say, if you made it that far, why not go on from there to 8 weeks, 12 weeks, 16 weeks. You will see, midpoint on the second video, the chart showing you how to gradually move your contract size up by one each week and what it can do for you. I believe, if some do not think that it is possible, it will never happen for them. They won’t let it. But to the other individual, who sees the vision of what could be, then he has everything to gain.

Just ask yourself this one question, “Do You Believe it is possible?” If your answer is yes, then take steps towards bringing yourself  to your desired outcome.  I decided a long time ago that I was going to just such a place. It is not even a question for me. The only question I have these days are how many people am I taking with me? What a journey. 

Trading to me, offers a  perfect solution to have time freedom and the money to go with it. But time freedom for me is on top. With time, you have choices and those choices can include whatever you want it to be, based on your values and what is important to you. I know what it is for me. Maybe ask yourself, what is it for you? I have said this before, but it bears repeating.

Above, I was talking about probabilities and patterns. I discussed patterns first and now a quick comment about probabilities.

The odds of me getting my 2 points goes up greatly when I only need to capture my daily goal of two points. The longer I trade, the possibility exists that I could come into trouble. I believe the markets are true and consistent. It would be me that could have a problem. That being said, it is going to be easier to attain a goal of 2 points vs a goal of 10 points.

You see, the best way to keep large sums of money is to make it a little slower and consistently. This will allow you to adjust yourself and prepare your mind to build on your foundation.  It is such a relief to get what you came for in the markets and do it again the next day with confidence. 

That is what I myself am building as I write to my readers. I know, I do trade for more than two points, but that is not always  the case. If I feel the rhythm of the markets I will continue to add to my gains. I don’t like to trade for more than 1 hour at a time. I know what can happen after a person gets tired. You can make mistakes and draw down your account. This would be trading in the 100 tick, taking 10-15 trades for an hour. If you continue at that pace, 20-30 trades for 2 hours, 30 to 45 trades for 3 hours, it can be done and I have done it, but you need to be on your game. I have seen my concentration drop off at these levels and it would be perfectly normal and understandable.

So, I find it best to be as sharp as I can to take it no longer than 1 hour at a time. I have picked up 10 to 15 points many times during a good hour of trading. The idea is I only need 2 points plus for the day to keep me going forward towards my yearly master plan of trading 5o contracts for 2 points net per day.  That is $2,500 per point x 2 points or $5,000 for the day. At the end of one year your risk for putting on a trade like this is about 1/2% against your account of  $500,000. 

When you compare that to how you started out, possibly risking 2 or 3 % on your first trades, depending on what you started with, your risk is steadily going down and actually becomes nonexistent to a point, because you have been taking cash out of the market all along the way. Along the course of that year you were able to take $ 260,000 in cash.

So, now you can see clearly what 2 points per day can do for you.  High probability trades combined with excellent timing will take you there.

If you want to get to this point of picking up 2 points a day and do it every day, then send me an email message and we can talk.

http://www.screencast.com/t/6dOoi7FJ6Nx   Daily S&P, 5 min S&P, & 1600 tick chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/Q17C1Web6       Friday’s 233 tick &  ”What 2 pt day can do”

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Training series / First in a nine part series

Monday, February 9th, 2009

Hello, this post is for Monday, February 9 th, 2009 and today I will begin a 9 part sample training series on how to trade the S&P 500 E-Mini Futures for daily profit.

I know some of you missed Saturday’s training with conflicting schedules, but I have decided to give out some of my material to the readers of this blog. The information is, I feel, very valuable to the person who is trying to find a method that has the ability to take money out of the market every day.

All traders are different, in that you may find a group of traders who all use the same method, but they all use different entries and get different results. That being said, you can train yourself to react in a consistent fashion when you have repeatable patterns presented to you. The main idea is to walk away with a modest profit and do it again the next day and so on. It is a very attainable goal if you know what to do.

The first thing anyone who aspires to become a successful day trader is you need to know how to trade. That may sound a little simplistic, but you would be surprised at how many people do not trade with a plan but by the seat of their pants. I don’t mean to offend anyone out there who is able to trade this way, but whatever feels good or looks good usually does not produce consistent results.

There are so few people who are able to be successful at this. In a way, I guess that’s good because the returns would not be as large as they can be for some. For the person who makes a million dollars a year, the odds drop way down. One of the reasons for that is most people are not able to 1) trade profitably and consistently;  2) they cannot overcome the mental aspect of trading . You first need to know how, then you need to work on yourself in ways you may have never thought about before. Sounds like a lot of work and it is. Nothing worth while is ever easy, cheap and without cost.

Have you ever thought of the main reason for your trading pursuits?  One of the many benefits I find rewarding about living a trader’s lifestyle is you have the ability to make your own hours. For me, that is a high on my priority list. Not having to work for someone else is without a doubt high in the ranking. You know, the money is not as important for me as it may be for others, because I don’t need so much to meet my daily needs. The time freedom is probably the most valuable to me. The money just affords the opportunity to take advantage of that benefit. The answer to the question above is going to be different for everyone, but it is a good question, so maybe give it some thought.

This business is not for everyone and I will be the first one to tell you that. You need to have a desire and/or a passion to pursue this seriously because you will be going up against professional traders worldwide. You cannot take a casual approach and expect to consistently come out on top.  

Back to the training series. I have part one of a nine part series posted below. These are only 5 minute clips and they will continue the next day where I left off. The nine parts will last a total of 45 minutes and this represents just one complete trading day. I have moved up my chart to a 233 tick chart from what I usually trade, 100 tick.  I look at 3 different time frames during the day and make my final trading decision in the 100 tick. When you trade a higher time frame chart, two things happen. You usually need to account for a bigger stop, so your target needs to be higher as well to account for that, and the second thing is you have fewer trade setups.

The smallest time frame for me is the 100 tick as I have said and this is basically a scalping method by definition (taking small profits of a few ticks to a few points). I find that, it would be advantageous for someone to trade a separate account for a different style. Like trading for larger point runs based on the appropriate trade setup. With this style, I do like to gradually scale out of trades when I see nice chart patterns present themselves. Maybe taking off the first part at 1 to 2 points, then the second at 2 to 3 points and the rest, let it go to where ever the market says get out, that is easy to identify with my method.

I might add, there is another way I have handled nice trade setups and that is, I would identify the next biggest time frame up from the 100 (I usually go up in incriments of 4, for me that would be the 400 tick chart). When I see a nice pattern in the 400, that I know in the past has produced nice movement, I look to the 100 tick and go long with a standard order, lets just say 3 contracts. I will add another 3 at a new break out with my new stop in place and move up my old stop to the second add on spot. I will add again at a new break out treating it as a separate order with its own separate stop.  In a 10 point run you may be able to add 4 or 5 times safely without any additional risk other than your first order. Basically, I am pyramiding my position for maximum return without the risk. You stay within the larger trend which is pushing you higher and add in the smaller time frame for maximum return. You can do that if you are able to recognize patterns and be ready with your plan in place. Keep that in mind when you view the short video’s.

You can see the patterns more easily in a larger time frame. That is why I have gone up to the 233 tick chart. It does not matter the time frame, everything is always the same. There are a lot of ways to trade and no one can say that my way is the best way, because it may be the best way for you but different for others. I would say, I do like the 233 tick chart and I have traded it before. It is the maximum time frame I can go and still keep a small 5 tick stop, so it is a very good alternative to the 100 tick, which may be a little too fast for someone who is just starting out. This is still plenty fast and the trade setups are still fairly frequent. When I counted the trade triggers generated in the one day, there were 50 possible trades for this time frame (233 tick)

Again, the training is broken down into 9 segments of 5 minutes each, given to you one each day and represents the full trading day of  Thursday, February 5th, 2009.  By the way, Friday’s market action looks the same as Thursday’s and Wednesday’s looks the same as Friday’s, they all  more or less look the same, repeatable trading patterns that happen over and over again.

This is just a sample of what you can learn with me. If you decide to partner with me, you will be able to follow me in the morning for 30 to 60 minutes, capturing your daily goal. I think you will be nicely rewarded with new knowledge, experience and hopefully some extra cash to go along with it. 

Ask about my “Mentoring Special”, Learn While You Earn.

Have a great day!

Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/WhGbWgD8Y                     Sample Training part  #1

http://www.screencast.com/t/44E4Uu492Qt                   Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/tBnsAUQswkN                   Today’s trades

http://www.screencast.com/t/kGkg0mjTPe                     Add on trade/1 entry 3 exits

http://www.screencast.com/t/ut61mZJgZn                      Updated equity chart

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Very important post, long term picture

Friday, January 30th, 2009

As I post this on Friday January 30th at 8:17 am the dow is off 114 point adding to the over 200 points + loss from yesterday and we have some real selling here.  The S&P is off 14 points now and adding yesterdays loss of 30 points that’s 44 points of selling  since my call, -5%. 

If you look at the S&P you will see that it needs to stay above the purple line across the bottom. That is the line in the sand. I think it will hold for now. Look at the purple line from above and you will see a wedge forming. That formation can last for quite a while, bouncing in between those 2 lines, it could be a few months. As it gets strung out, it will have built up a lot of pressure getting people to establish positions on both sides of the market and the struggle will continue. After that point, a break to the downside will have resolved the struggle and a very large wave of selling will kick in pushing the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ and other major indexes to the downside taking with it more of America’s wealth.  That is just one man’s opinion and is not to be considered investment advise. Everyone needs to choose for themselves what is best for them in their own investment plans.

What I see is a web being laid out, like what a spider would do in order to catch his prey. He lays the web, one string at a time until his trap is set and he waits for the victim to walk into it, of its own free will.  Investors have been trained to buy the dips, thinking that the market has fallen so far that it can not fall any farther, so they buy. I am speaking of long term investors and not traders here. Just keep an eye on the two purple lines and let a little time go buy and let’s see what happens. I would say that for us to be prudent, we need to interpret what is happening and not so much predicting it. I to need to remember that although it makes for some interesting reading.

This is what is happening right now. We are in a consolidation phase trying to put in a bottom but need to stay above that bottom purple line. I have seen it a thousand times, once that support gets broken we will be going down at least to test the previous low. For now, it remains in tact and we can expect sideways to up over the weeks to come.

Let me give everyone a little more perspective on the long term trend. I will post a monthly chart of the S&P with my method attached to it. My method works on all time frames as you can see in the daily and now monthly charts. We have had 4 trading signals since 1995 and I caught all of them exactly as laid out on the chart. If you had positioned yourself at these turning points with your 401 k’s and IRA’s you would be at the top of the heap, instead of the bottom of the barrel.

Don’t mean to be insensitive here, but with all the experts out there, I have learned to trust myself instead, by getting educated. Who could blame you for staying invested during those big down periods? I could go back to the 1930’s and the charts on the screen will look exacting the same, giving excellent buy and sell signals, telling you when to stay invested and when to step aside in cash waiting for the right time to get back in.

As you can see, it is not the right time to get in yet for the long term investor. You are trying to catch a sharp falling knife. Do you know what happens when you do that? That’s right, you get cut. Just say no, for very long term money, its not time yet. When the two lines cross to the upside, that will be a different story.  In time you will learn to read price action, or you should strive to do that with no indicators at all, other than the price charts themselves. I can show you how to get the same entries as I have posted on the monthly.

Ask yourself, if you had invested in 1995 and got out at the high of 2000, what would your portfolio look like?  Then, to stay in short term treasuries until July of 2003, when you re-entered the market as it took you fully invested to January of 2008. You would be doing well.

People have been told that you cannot time the market. That is what they want you to think. Who is the “they” you ask? It is anyone who has a whole lot more money than we do. You will get a pretty long list from that. To answer that question,  I would say, that’s a bunch of ______, well, you know what I mean. The public has been trained / conditioned / manipulated etc. to believe this and so it is why they get fleeced time and time again. Don’t let that happen to you. Get educated and put the odds back on your side.

Very important: look at the long term monthly chart of the S&P.  Using my method I have been able to call every major market move since the early 1980’s when I started following the markets. I will post more of those charts in the future to help you see what I see. Again, my method works in any time frame. I currently trade a very small time frame, 100 tick S&P e-mini, unless the volume changes drastically. These charts are based on volume and not time. That is why I say, “I have seen the daily chart setup that we are now looking at a thousand times”, because those are the same looking setups on any time frame and you can expect similar market reactions.

O.K. that is it for now. I wish everyone the very best.

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