Posts Tagged ‘100 tick’

December Santa Clause Rally, Boom or Bust

Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009

This post is for Mondays session, December 21st, posting a little late.

Mondays trading turned out to be a mover, to the upside. The market has pushed itself back up to the top of its range and in fact hit that all elusive number I had called for so many months ago, 1120. Mondays we hit 1120.25 on the cash market S&P a full 50% fibonaci retracement of the full trading move over the past two years.

 The momentum did turn rather quickly with the size of the move and currently is up on the 120 minute chart. As I write this post it is currently Tuesday a.m. and today happens to be the day that the new investors sentiment numbers come out. I will not see them until Thursday, but the price action that takes place today is reflective of those numbers. So today’s close on Tuesday, is going to be very important.

I am anticipating the numbers to turn more positive which in-fact will be more negative in reality, but we will have to see how it turns out, first with todays close and then with the numbers themselves.

The month of December has traditionally been a positive one and some have even called it “The Santa Clause rally”.  In the last 20 years, Decembers trading has shown a gain 16 out of the last 20 years. At this level, it would be 17, but we are not finished yet. It is noteworthy and that is why I point it out.

Below, I have posted the trades I took for Monday. I have not traded for several days, but thought I would squeeze a little in. The market was just coming off a big rally up and then I come in. Well, I knew better, to try to play the trend, because we were coming into overhead resistance and coming off a large move up already, which started in the pre-market. That is why I have a different model to trade out of, based on price action conditions. It is not rocket science for me to switch to “Scalp Mode” and pick up a few trades and points in both directions. All I do is follow my “Turning Points” as I have shown you before. In-fact I mentioned it in my last post. The thing to do is just follow it. If you do, the trades work out, if you don’t, they don’t, pretty simple. I did an OK job in following my signals, I could have done better. You can see where I came in and compare that to the signal turns in the link below.

If I was trading earlier, I am sure I would have had those break outs to the upside. Starting January, I will definitely be trading the open and getting my points for the day will be easier and quicker for me. The pace is faster and I like it. Trading after the market has slowed, is not what I prefer, but as I have said before, I have to take what the market gives at the time I decide to trade. A trader can not impose there will on the markets, so you learn to take what it offers at that time.

I absolutely love the way I approach the market. I could always stay in “Scalp Mode” if I want to, but I would at times miss out when the market shows signs of life and has legs. I have my other screen set up to accomodate this type of run away condition and can easily take advantage of it, if it presents itself. It is not really hard to switch into this screen, one click of the mouse at the bottom of my Trade Station Platform and I am there. A screen set up to accomodate large moves that are very clearly defined that only require you to follow it. It always boils down to that, can you follow signs to get to your destination, they are clearly marked.

In my blog, I often talk about things that hold traders back from following their signals. If you can get a handle on the trading discipline that is required to execute, you will make it. You first need the method or plan and some may call it system, but what ever it is you follow, it needs to be clearly defined and show consistency. Then you need to exercise your mind and build your character to follow through with it. If you don’t have the first one, the second one will not help you and if you have the first one without the second, you will still be in trouble, the two go hand in hand.

Start the rebuilding process now, start exercising your mind, write out your plans on paper in your trading journal, hopefully you have one. Start exercising your body as well, this will get your endorphins kicking in and give you some blood flow and hopefully motivation, be consistent. Get going now, see the picture in your mind of how it all comes together, but it takes action. It is not going to happen only by thinking about it. Once you see the big picture, break it down into small bit size pieces. What is it going to take to get step one finished or started, then on to step two. Break each one of the steps down as well, if it requires more work. If you write it out and take this approach, you will be moving forward towards your goal and dreams. This takes you out of the dream state and puts you in the driver seat. Do you know where you are going? When will you get there? What will it be like when you arrive? Taking charge of your life is up to you and all it really requires is one small word “DECIDE”. Have you?

http://www.screencast.com/t/YTRiM2U3Y

Scalping the S&P 500 for Daily Profit

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

Today is Thursday September 24th and all the major index’s had follow through on yesterday’s sell off.

We had mentioned that if there was follow through it could be telling us something. I do see a rising wedge in this up-trend developing, but has not broken as of yet. There is support at just under today’s low and I think this level is really going to be important to hold. This sell off is and can be expected, given that we had this big run. There is some resistance above and as stated some support below. I would be surprised if we go right through support from here. I don’t think that is going to happen. I would expect a day or two of consolidation at or around these levels and a counter trend rally, just like I mentioned earlier in the week. You usually will get a counter rally back up and at that point, the make or break point will be at hand. It is still developing and will need to see the move back up to better determine what is actually going to happen. Still can not rule out higher prices. Dow 10,000 and S&P 1100 are not far away.

I had mentioned the sentiment had been falling and that can be a good thing for the bulls. After this weeks price action, the bears will make an even stronger case for the market to drop, thinking that this must be the drop that everyone was waiting for. I am a firm believer to always look at both sides of the market and that way you will not get blinded by what you want to see happen or your preconceived opinions of market direction. Wall Street is a two way street and right now, the flow of overall traffic is still going one way. Yes we have pulled back quite a bit, but the price action is not decisive enough to warrant an all out sell. We bounced off of some stiff resistance and appear to be pulling back. Lets just watch the price action over the next few days and the bigger picture will become more clear.

Below is a short video of some of the trades I took in the S&P. These trades are out of the 100 tick chart and is by any measure a fast pass chart of price action. I look to two higher time frame charts as well but those are not mentioned or shown. It’s all about timing. When to pull the trigger and when not to. If your timing is good and you  have a road map to follow, you can do well. If you timing is off and you can not follow a clear plan of action then you most certainly will not do well. It’s just that simple. How do you know where to get in and out?  That is explained in my method in detail. Below, I have taken 15 trades in the last 90 minutes of trading and posted 54 ticks of profit and 15 gains, with one loss of -3 ticks. I show exactly where I get in and out but do not explain why and do not show any of the other parts of the method. We only need 8 ticks to capture 2 points for the day.  It can usually be had in about 30 minutes of trading everyday. If you are able to slowly increase your contract size while trading for a very conservative daily goal of 2 points, you will never worry about money again.

It is not that hard to learn, but the hard part is going to be dealing with yourself and the inevitable fear and greed which always comes into the picture when you have large sums of money at stake. There are things traders can do to overcome these obstacles, but very few ever think of what that is and even fewer are willing to do what is necessary even if they find out, what they should be doing to get to that level.

All I say is, it is possible, if you have the support and road map. I can offer both, for those who are interested. I will be coming out soon with a more favorable pricing structure for those interested that includes a much lower initial cost to get started. It should be up and posted in a couple of weeks. I am working hard on putting everything else a trader will need to get and meet there goals. It is and will be different than any other method or system out there, so stay turned.

Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/15cxliWCm7g         video of todays trades and turning points together/ 100 tick chart

Day Traders, read the current price action !

Thursday, September 17th, 2009

Today is Wednesday September 16th and the markets are still bringing it in.

I was wrong on a closing basis in regards to the pullback. We did get one and it was pretty significant, but not near what I thought we would get. Monday’s pullback was about 12 S&P points but  most of it came in the night session, before the market opened. From there it pulled back up nicely and then some.

The markets are strong right now and that is what I have been saying since the March 6th bottom. We have had a few pullback along the way and I did see and call most of those. Last week I did say that I saw the upside around 1100 on the S&P ultimately, but we shall see. That is more closely the middle of the entire range from 1550, the high, to 666, the low and back to the middle around 1100, give or take a few. The market likes round numbers and given the strength and with the Dow being close to 10,000 it appears it wants to trade up to that number or close to it. In the S&P as mentioned, 1100 would match pretty close to a 10,000 Dow.  It is a psychological numbers for sure and will be interesting to see how the markets handle it. You will probably get some fan fare on CNBC or Time Magazine or News Week. That is usually not a good sign if it happens. Lets just hope it keeps going somewhat unnoticed. I imagine that would be best for those with paper losses in there 401K’s. I would love to be wrong about the big picture. I hope it goes right on back to the top of the market at 1550 plus. We can all hope, but I think that is what it would be, hope.

The best way to handle it is, take it a day at a time. Seriously, the daily trend is up, the weekly trend is up, but the monthly is still actually down.

All we are doing, as far as I can see, in regards to the monthly, is coming back up to test the middle of the range. Until we find the middle and this market runs out of gas, we will have to see the daily action to get a better read on what will come next. It is all conditional, if this, then that. The this, is still working on it, so let us not be anxious and just read the swings inside the daily and go from there.

I and we, need to hold our opinions loosely. If we get to strong of a bias, we will not be able to take the trades as they come to us. It is almost impossible to trade against a strongly held belief that you may hold. So the moral of the story and I am speaking to myself, hold your opinions about overall market direction loosely. That way as the set ups develope, you will be able to trade in what ever direction the price action is telling you to without strong bias’.

I like to forecast the daily’s because it is something to write about and I know a lot of people follow it. As far as day trading is concerned, it usually is not something I use as a timing tool. I look at much smaller time frames and let the market tell me where to go from there. This time, I will admit that I did have a bit of a bias short and it did affect my decision making a little, but not a lot. Once I see strength, I try not to fight it. Ok enough on that.

I have a short 5 minute screen shot of the some directional turning points on a 233 tick chart below. I show on a clean chart only, no indicators or anything else, where my method would give the buy and sell points for the session. There is not as many trades as there would be on the 100 tick chart but still plenty to make 2 to 4 points for the session. One or two trades would do, rather quickly.

 http://www.screencast.com/t/Z4PSvSrr77k                          Turning points on 233 tick chart for 9-16-09

Expecting pull back on Monday

Saturday, September 12th, 2009

Today’s trading on Wall Street, was more of the same. A continuation of the up-trend has been the basic pattern, but a breather should be in store for Monday.

I believe we will see a pull back over the next few trading days, but I am trying to not have a STRONG BIAS about it. I will see how the price action lines up and trade out of the smaller time frames to capture at least 2 to 4 points for the day. I am not to worried when I grab only 3 tricks on a trade or even two for that matter. It all depends how I am playing it and what kind of day I think it is going to be. I could have had a couple of big runners, but did pick up one trade for 1 point and 2 points, half and half. When you are able to trade more than one contract at a time, split the trade up and take half off early, it releases the pressure and allows you to be able to stay in longer for that larger point gain.  Today’s trading saw 7 trades all gains with one even trade.

Don’t have much time, I have unexpected guests from out-of-town and need to get going  for now, if I have time to post again before Monday I will.

Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/DDL5Sn7JbB       trading out of the 100 tick, but posting results out of 233 (space)

Day Trading Lesson, A Big One

Friday, May 22nd, 2009

Today is Thursday, May 21st and the market is reacting to yesterday’s call for a sell off.

So far so good on the call, but each day stands on its own. The S&P sold off about 24 points (equal to 240 Dow Points), straight down with a little come back at the end of the session. It went right to last Friday’s close and stopped dead in its tracks and moved back up about 9 S&P points, still off 15 points for the day.

I have said that Friday’s close was the line in the sand, and I am not the only one who realizes that represents a key turning point. That was why it stopped going down at that number. We will see how it reacts to that number again. A close below that, will usher in more selling.

Today’s trading was a short session. I traded smaller, only 3 contracts, and only traded up to my daily goal. A smooth morning.

Trading Lesson: I have always said that you have to look at both sides of the market and not get stuck on any one call. The reason, if conditions change, you will not be able to trade against your anchored opinion and you will not be able to see the changes taking place, because it does not match up with your pre-ordained views.

This is SO IMPORTANT, I cannot begin to tell you how much. It can mean the difference to your whole trading endeavor. That’s right, that is how important this point is. Things change fast during the day and you have to be able to change your position, long to short and vice-versa.

In a predominantly strong down day, it can pay off to only take the short trades and just leave the long ones alone. The same is true for a super strong up trending day. There is nothing wrong with that, but those days only come along about 2 to 3 days per month. That leaves about 17 other trading days that the market is grinding itself higher or lower, with plenty of ups and downs along the way.

Those 17 days are when we need to remain open minded to overall direction. You can have an opinion based on the next higher time frame you predominantly trade, but keeping an open mind basd on price action is again THE KEY to success.

Most people trade better from the long side of the market and that alone can be a stumbling block to overcome. Get it in your mind now, if you are going to day trade, you need to see both sides of the market and be able to handle yourself equally based on price action. Don’t gloss over this trading advice. If you take your trading venture seriously. I would like to see more small traders handle themselves proficiently while going up against the big boys on Wall Street.

Knowing how to read chart patterns is one of the key elements to understanding price action. Look at yesterday’s S&P 500 cash market on a 5 minute chart. You will see one of the most perfect HEAD & SHOULDERS patterns around. Look closely at the last 5 days from start to finish and you can clearly see a break on the right shoulder as clear as a bell The time is 12:10 or so and the price break is at 912.

By going short at that price and holding through to today at the same time, 12:10 or so, you would have picked up 29 S&P points, from signal entry to signal exit. I would not personally hold over night, but we are just looking at the pattern. If I traded options or some other instrument, I may consider holding it, but I don’t trade that way.

The point is, that is trading price action at its finest. Those moves happen in all time frames, down to the small micro moves of the 100 tick chart of the E-Mini. Understanding how prices ebb and flow is critical to coming out on top at the end of your trading day.

Many people think they get it, but I will tell you it takes time to see the patterns over and over again. When you see it, you will know what to do. Buy or Sell at the low risk entry points. It will not come to you by osmosis, or any other way. You will have to learn it.  There is no way of getting around it. The other option is to rely on indicators as a cheat sheet or cliff notes to help you through the endeavor. That can work to help you get started, but you should not depend on it. It could be your “Achilles heel” to trading. Say it isn’t so. That’s what I am talking about. Learn price action and keep going forward.

I love the line in the last Rockey movie, called (Rockey Balboa). One of the lines he uses when talking to his kid is, “Winning is not about Not getting hit, but about getting hit and keep moving forward, keep moving forward, that’s how winners are made”. So true when it comes to trading. You will get stopped out, but what are you going to do about it? Put it out of your mind and look for the next trade move and come back, one trade at a time. Don’t try and eat it all at once. One trade at a time, one after another, based on momentum and solid price action moves.

As a bonus to my readers today, I have below today’s momentum swings mapped out similar to yesterday’s posting. I don’t know how long I will do this, but it’s there today. I can’t show you the other timing tools I use, but I will tell you that they match up to every signal I have posted on the screen within one price bar. Those other tools give the trader more confidence until he learns more about how to map out his price action treasure. There’s that treasure talk again. Go figure.

http://www.screencast.com/t/9Ld4q9Wf Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/7yekZzC2PUy Today’s potential trades as marked, Video, no sound, 2 minutes.

DOW UP 500 POINTS, shows strength

Tuesday, March 24th, 2009

Today is Monday March 24th and the markets continue the rally early.

No one wanted to wait for a bigger pullback than we got from last Thursday and Friday.  The Dow was up almost 500 points and the S&P up 54 boasting a 7% gain for the Index. The daily trend has clearly been up and may have more to go. Let’s hope so. I would like to see big buying come in to lift this market past some very clear overhead resistance. It’s up there, at higher levels. I see resistance at around 870, now that we cleared the last small pivot with very little pull back. This should slow the bears down a little bit and keep them honest.

I did not have time to trade today and may not have time tomorrow. I am at a conference and it does not finish until Tuesday at 4 pm. So my next trades may not happen until then.  If I get a chance to put on a couple of trades in the pre-market or at the open, I will. But I may have to wait until Wednesday.

Below are a couple of charts that I threw up to show a few small  potential trades early on and one nice big move in the afternoon, on the 400 tick, that could have produced some nice gains.

I have to go for now, I will try and post something tomorrow, even if I do not trade.

http://www.screencast.com/t/Vj1FnIkniJ       100 Tick Chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/wS9rF3u1s6     400 Tick Chart

At last, an up day

Thursday, March 5th, 2009

Today is February 4th, and we finally got a move up.

It has been a long time since we have had a move up and it sure is welcomed. I had gotten that feeling that we would rally today, when I heard Obama say that Americana’s with the means should consider to buy stocks. It is not very often that you will hear a sitting president, to buy stock in the market. I think he got tipped off by Goldman Sacks. If we do get a rally, everyone will be saying, “see, Obama told us the bottom is in and we should buy stock”.  Knowing how people think, heard mentality, people went out like good little citizens and did what they were told, buy stocks. I am being a little sarcastic and maybe I should not be, but I can not help myself right now. I do not ever remember a president making a market call like this today and I have been following the markets for 25 years. Oh well, there is a first for everything.

The rally was welcomed, I am sure by all. I thought yesterday, that as the market closed close to the low of the day and Tuesday is the day that the sentiment numbers come out by the news letter writers, that the numbers must have dropped again, which is good news for the bulls. I will post those numbers tomorrow, because I get them two days late. I am not a subscriber so the best I can do is a little delay, I will take it. My guess is that it dropped 3-4 % to 23 or 24, with a reading under 35 as a traditionally a bullish signal. You need to remember, that all of the times we were in more or less, normal market conditions, these readings were very very accurate. But as we find ourselves in this massive sell off, which has happened before, like in 2000, sometimes the readings get stretched to extreme levels before the market reacts. This is such an environment currently. When the numbers got to the mid 20’s, we had a big market bounce off the bottom in November of last year. Since then the numbers started to rise and are now getting back to what they were before, pending Thursday’s reading. So, I am thinking that we may be in for a bounce up for a few day’s. In addition, I heard a lot of people starting to say that much lower levels are coming, like now. When you hear people on TV and Newsweek, Time, etc. saying the same thing, look for a move in the opposite direction. Those people are rarely right and it usually can pay to bet against them. With all that being said, the current trend of everything is still down. Let hope we get some follow through this week.

The market did sell off just at the close, by 100 Dow point and 10 S&P points, in just a few minutes. That sure was not good, so for tomorrow, look for a continuation of the pull back initially and watch for a rally back up. It is possible that we could get a few days of consolidation at these levels to give us a better footing for an up move, but we will just have to wait and see.

Yesterday, I made a comment about the Pension Funds being underfunded and I found a chart of just such a story, explaining the facts. Below I will post a chart of some of the underfunded companies that are having the most problems. Over all, I hear there is a $ 409 billion dollar shortfall in the pension funds right now. Last year there was surplus and now, a big underfunded liability. These companies have some time to make up the difference but if things do not improve soon, it is really going to hurt. They are regulated by the government to make these pension contributions to cover future retirement obligations. They are currently only funded to 60%, which leaves them 40% short. They are going to have to take more of there earned income and kick in a bunch of money to make up the difference and that is going to hurt earnings potential. On Wall Street, its all about the earnings. “What have you done for me lately”. That is an old saying in my family and is appropriate for the current situation hear. Oh, the reason for the big shortfall, is that a lot of these companies invest that money in the stock market and with valuations going down so much, it is putting a big strain on there balance sheet. This can turn into the old snow ball effect, if things do not turn around soon, lets hope. Just reporting the facts here.

In my day-trading effort, I only had a limited amount of time to trade and did so for only 15 minutes in the morning. I did get my daily goal with all gains. I placed 5 trades with 8 exits in the morning and as I said all were gains, nice. I found a few minutes in the afternoon session around 11 am and traded for about 25 minutes and added nicely to my gains. I posted around $1,300 for the day with 22 pieces of profit and 3 losses, 88% . I started out with a 1 point gain on 5 contracts for $250 profit, then started to reduce my size, played it safe, because I had a limited amount of time. If I had draw downs it would be harder to come back, not having the time. It worked out just like I wanted and so, I chalked up another days worth of gains. I think I am now about 30 days in row of posting solid profit every day, no loosing days. I had many days of profit before that, but in the last week of January, I started to post every day, no exceptions and it has been going great. I have had struggles and came close to my daily loss limit, where it is, that I will have to stop for the day, but my streak is alive and I plane to keep it that way, by trading smart and following my rules as best I can. Below is an equity chart of the days gains and a chart of some of my trades in the 233 tick. I am taking these trades in the 100 tick, but I am looking at other time frames to give myself a larger view and perspective.

 http://www.screencast.com/t/E8oNvlEsc6r         Today’s equity chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/KTX51dkd               Some of today’s trades in 233 tick

http://www.screencast.com/t/dOBUnSMx              Chart of, some company pension shortfalls

http://www.screencast.com/t/MAWnN1pts7b     Day trade chart of IBM, my promise from yesterday

Big Day of Profits

Saturday, February 21st, 2009

Friday, February 21st and all is well.

Today was a real good day in profits posted. Still, I could have done better. I had over a 2 to 1 profit ratio and my percentage was about 75 percent gains. I traded a little differently today. I was splitting my targets in 2 or 3 exits. Today I was going for extended gains. I got many of them for some nice profit in the afternoon session. The market again was moving nicely in the afternoon.

I have a  few screen shots below, one of the 233 tick and one of the 100 tick. I was taking most of the trades based on the entry of the 100. It looks like I entered a little early for that 9 point staggered gain on the 233 tick. I did not have too much heat against me, so I was able to stay in for a real nice gain. I just played the whole day a little different for some bigger trades especially in the afternoon. I thought we would have some extended plays, so I was ready. The screen shots are below. That’s it for now.

Vince

http://www.screencast.com/t/xmWeFqqLjN       Today’s equity graph

http://www.screencast.com/t/paRzngGDA         100 tick chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/Hh7nawn74        233 tick chart

http://www.screencast.com/t/1zrPzHdI65          233 tick chart

Big Day on Wall Street & Day 6 training

Wednesday, February 18th, 2009

Today is Tuesday February 17th, and we had a big day on wall street.

I don’t think the investment community likes the bail out plan because it more closely resembles a big government spending binge.  The way I understand it, there is going to have to be more and more of this spending in future years, to the tune of 2.5 Trillion or more dollars, wow, that is a lot of money. Look for inflation to be a big problem later in the year. They won’t be able to raise that much money without raising taxes and or printing it (money).  It is going to pull a lot of available cash away from the private sector, meaning people with businesses are going to have to pay more to capture some of the financing that they need.  Interest rates will go up for sure and so will inflation. Right now we are in a deflationary environment, but that is going to change later this year, you wait and see. I don’t think this is good for the economy and the market with wall street agreeing. The S&P sold off about 4 & 1/2 percent and today broke that all important support that I have talked about. Not a good development for long term money. The market is always going to foretell what is happening in the economy 6-9 months in the future. So lets still hope we get a reversal.

As far as indicators go, the daily did turn negative today. I don’t rely on indicators, but it is a little helpful at times for the person who is still learning how to read price action. The only glimmer of hope that I see, is a possible fake out. Many times the previous low (pivot) gets taken out by only a slight margin and that is enough to get shorts and people who have been hanging in there to throw in the towel. When that happens a fast reversal can happen. Right now, there is no way of know what the next move is, but by reading  current price action will we know if it is going to continue to break down. I would say be alert tomorrow and look for a possible reversal, but don’t have too strong a bias, just be aware that a reversal can happen, and  ”READ PRICE ACTION”. That is the only way you will know what’s going on.

As traders, that is easy to figure out. Don’t anticipate much, just read. I can not state that strong enough. The times that you have too strong an opinion about market direction, to the point that you become blinded from what is actually happening, is the times that you will not do so well. You can not force you will on the market, it does not care what you think. Its job is to take you “OUT”. So, take it easy and wait for high probability set ups.

Today’s day trading went well. I picked up my daily goal in about 20 minutes or so in the morning. I started out with +1 point but only got filled on 1 contract, not 5. Then had -1 point , +1 point, +1/2 point, +3 ticks, and then +1 point. I have the trades posted below. I did come back for another round a little later after taking a break. The equity graph shows all the trades net profit. I had 14 trades, with 12 gains and 2 losses. The market was really flowing nicely. I will show tomorrow some more trades in the 233 tick. If anyone is trying to trade and follow on there own, I would recommend that you do it in the 233 tick right now. Unless you know how to weed through the possible false signals in the 100 tick, you should be following the 233 tick for now. I will explain more in tomorrow post.

Lastly, when watching the training, you may want to scroll down to the bottom and go to the right side, there you will see a button that looks like a screen.  If you click on that, you will make the screen full size, it may be easier to view. I wish everyone who is follow me a great evening.

Vince

 

http://www.screencast.com/t/NgwtnTFbUO       Day #6 Training

http://www.screencast.com/t/BK9pKrXAos      Today’s equity graph

 http://www.screencast.com/t/oSpzKsaqESr         Some of today’s trades