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Very Slow Stock Market Action

Monday, February 14th, 2011

Just a quick update with some of the days results over the past few days. I did not post for a few days because I was a bit busy doing a series of new training video’s for my members. These are full length video’s covering the method in full.  It is a lot of work and it takes a lot of time. Only so many hours in a day!

Anyway, I picked up my daily goal Thursday and Friday as Friday took me a bit longer than I wanted to spend at it. The price action has been off, to say the least. I changed the tick chart settings on Friday to fit in the better part of the day, but it changed the signals that you usually see so, I just elected to turn it off.

In today’s trading I took only two trades and as I came in late to see that the price action was so weak and anemic that I would have done just fine to skip it all together. I thought about doing that, but changed my mind and gave it a shot. With only a two tick stop, I did not give it enough room and got stopped out for -2 ticks on my first trade, no conviction.  Having a 1 point stop as I usually would at a minimum, I would have done OK. The move was a valid one moving up from a average position in the chart.

The end result was -1 point for the day on two trades. I was going to skip it altogether and would have been good doing so. The volume was the slowest I have seen in years. With an hour to go before the close, we did not even hit 1 million contracts. As I mentioned to my group, a trader could have watched paint dry, it was so slow.

I don’t like it when the action is like that, as I am sure most don’t, but it is what it is. If you can scalp trade as I had in mind on Friday, you could have still done OK.  That was a day for a trending mindset and today pure scalp trades. O Well, no harm no foul.  My trades the last three days below.

That’s it for now. I hope to be finished this week so I can get back to focusing on good low risk trading.

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Todays price action in Emini S&P

Tuesday, January 18th, 2011

1-18-11;

A video of today’s S&P emini price action. The market gave the early traders a few good entries as shown in the video, but later slowly died. I was only able to pick up a few ticks on the day, as their was just limited opportunity. Just before the close, I had reversed directions but bailed out at break even.  If the trade went against me late in the session, I may have ended the day with a small loss. Trading on the open or much earlier, would fix that. Overall about a 1 point gain, I will take it.

We trade the price first, the trading indicators are second. I don’t show all of my screen, but just a small portion and have most of it hidden, but I can tell you it all fits together like a glove. I use multiple time frames and again, use price action, combined with a unique analysis of support, resistance and price projections not seem anywhere else, or non that I have seen.

If you missed yesterdays article, you may want to check it out. I give some interesting insight on what it takes to be successful at scalp trading the emini market or any market for that fact. If you are struggling with your trading, their is help that can really make a difference.

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Major Index’s move to New Highs

Wednesday, January 12th, 2011

Today is Wednesday January 12th, as we saw the Dow Index +83 points and the S&P emini futures +12.

The volume came early on and very late in the session. From 8:30 to 12:30 West Coast, the market went to sleep. That was 4 hours of nothing. It can be hard to trade with no volume and movement as I saw today.

I have gotten off to a slow start this year, with a few points gain on Monday and 1 point gain yesterday. Both of those days I was only in the market a few minutes combined. I did not have the time to trade and was able to slip in a few trades. Today I had more time but hit that slow patch in the market, that is just how it goes. I was down about 1.50 points with a few small losses in the S&P, but decided to take a trade out of the Nasdaq Market. I don’t usually switch markets, but did today and hit a piece of that late market move for a few points.  I show it in the U-Tube video below towards the very end.

The second video under that is from Monday’s sessions which just shows more of the same, turning points and continuation entries.  I or any trader does not have to trade all of these area’s, but just a few will do and often times, just one to make a nice daily return. It is not to hard, but using good judgment and the method in full which is never really talked about, can help you get that done.  Being successful at day trading is a lot harder than most people make it, because they are acting from emotions. Having a solid method that looks to price structure, support and resistance in a very unique way and the nature momentum of the market to help get this done is key. The trade indicators are only a reflection of all of these things just mentioned. When you have both, it can be a powerful combination.

Monday’s Session

Good Trading to all !

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Trading the Opening Gap

Monday, October 25th, 2010

Today is Monday October 25th, 2010 as the markets took off early on to only fail late in the session.

The Dow was still up about 30 points and the S&P up a few points also, but could not hang on to the early gains. Much of the move came early in the night session and the mornings open prices jumped to catch up to what the futures traders deemed as fair value. That value was later adjusted in lower prices as the session went on.

Often times when you see a gap opening, it gets filled. Most of the time depending on the size of the gap, it gets filled quickly, but not today. When you see a jump in the opening prices, their are no stocks that had a chance to trade in between that gap, again after the open. Prices tend to fall back and “fill the trading gap” as it is called, usually around 70% of the time and do it rather quickly. So, having a good strategy for playing the gap openings, is a good idea.

As traders, you need to have an entry that is low risk. You can not just sell after the open, because you see a gap higher. You need to know exactly where your lowest risk entry will be and then you can enjoy the strategy. At times it does not come back all that fast as in today, where it was dragged out for some time. Only until late in the session did prices give up their hold on the market to adjust itself. The S&P filled the trading gap to the tick and held while the Dow still has about 30 points or so for its gap to get filled. We are likely to see it filled in the early session tomorrow, then we will see what the markets true intentions are.

When you have gap days, it is best to get the gap filled quickly, because it tends to pull on the market. Once filled, the market is somewhat re-balanced and it can continue on with normal market flow patterns.

This is just something to be aware of, if you see it again in the future. I have one screen devoted to little or no indicators and on that screen I have a separate window using a 2 minute chart of the S&P futures and a 2 minute chart of the cash Dow. For the futures, I use a continuous contract chart with a .d after the symbol. In Trade Station it is @es.d    for a continuous contract chart of the S&P 500 emini without the globex or night trading in it. So in this chart you only see the price action start at the open. It is very easy to spot where any trading gaps are by using this type of chart. In addition, it is no secret that I trade using tick charts, but I do look at time charts for a variety of reasons. I glance at them to see if their are discrepancies between the two style charts. Time charts show me when the market is slow at a glance as bars are being posted with little or no movement behind them. In addition, support and resistance analysis can get thrown off when using different tools. Also, this shows me, what the bulk of other traders are looking at and how they might react.

I am sure the 80/20 rule would apply to the amount of traders that use time charts to tick charts, 80% using time charts and 20% using tick charts or some other style. (range charts, volume charts)

In today’s trading I did not make my daily goal. It happens sometimes and I am not crying about it. Losses are apart of trading and I had some today. It wasn’t bad in that I was only down about 1.50 points or so, but it didn’t have to be that way. I had a good trade working and added one more contract to it and was up about 4 points at one point, just what I was looking for. Problem was, I had to leave the room for a few moments to long. With stop in place, the market ran up and immediately ran right straight back down to my original stop for -3 ticks. To go from +4 points and see it closed out at -3 ticks is not typical for me, that is for sure, but it happened and felt a bit stressed looking for trades before the market closed on me at the end of the session, not usually a good idea.

I didn’t really have a choice but to check on something and it cost me. Of all the days to see a top like that come so quickly with a hard reverse.  I could have had a target and cancel set up, so if my target was filled, my stop gets canceled. I didn’t have it set for that and would have to have it in place at the time of entry, so I live with it. Tomorrow is a new day and new opportunities and I am sure I will find them.

Until next time, good trading.

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New Highs for the Stock Market and it not over !

Wednesday, October 13th, 2010

Today is Wednesday October 13th, 2010 and the market is moving higher posting solid gains in the face of adversity, with +75 on the Dow and +10.25 on the S&P.

We saw more upside as I mentioned we would in the last few posts. We had a nice reversal day with yesterdays gap lower and then higher close. That is a good sign in a bull run that their is more to come. I have a few targets that I called out many weeks ago. I called 1225 or better on the S&P and we are not really that far from it now, with today hitting 1181. My big mantra for a bull move surprise started when the S&P was hovering around the 1040 area. That is now 140 S&P points higher. It has take a little while but we finally are over the long term weekly resistance that was over head and on to the upper end of the target area I called for in late August. You can go back and read my posts, as it was overwhelmingly pointing to a surprise rally taking most by surprise. All during that week of consolidation back then, I was commenting on the coming move again and again.

The third week of July was when I was getting strong indications of a major move up. We saw that for a few weeks and then a correction which set up this longer advance and here we are. Take it one day at a time and know that the trend is up, until other wise notified, by the market. The price tells all and indicators are only a reflection of what is happening within the price. So, if you learn how to read the price, the indicators will only confirm what you already know. If you try and learn the indicators, you will never know why they are giving buy and sell readings and you will be confused with which one to follow. If you know the language, you will posses the trading advantage. That is what every trader needs. Without it, you are only guessing and the odds of long term success do not show well with this.

The stock market is fractal in nature, which means what ever time frame you are looking at, you should be able to see, read and learn what the next move of the market will be at select times. No one will know ever twist and turn and we don’t try and figure out every wiggle, but when the language becomes very clear, as to its next move while keeping your risks low, that is when you move. At that time, you posses the trading advantage.

In today’s trading I hit just a few trades, all winning moves, but just small. I was in scalp mode and just wanted to get a few points and be done. I only spend 30 minutes at it today and got what I needed.  I totally saw exactly to the tick 1181 as a potential high for today’s market. I thought of trading for it on the second have of my last trade, but I did not have my chart set up for that. If my target gets hit, my stop will automatically cancel itself and I could actually walk away from the trade and be OK, but I did not have it set up for that this time, that was fine and just closed it out and left.

I am trying to finish up a few things and it is time consuming. I may share more of that later, but it is not trading related. People in my area need help, and I am making myself available to them. This is what I love about trading the markets. You can put in a little time, get rewarded and move on. That is one of the big benefits of being able to trade. You are able to get a modest goal or return for the day and go do something else. “Time Freedom”.  With it, you have endless options as to what you do with your free time.

So, don’t give up. If you have it in your blood to master trading, in what ever form, keep trying, but be responsible with your passion. It is hard to trade with funds that are not part of true risk capital. Just getting to that spot, can really help your own trading. It will help you relax and take the edge off. That is not to say, you can be reckless and loose, but just the contrary. If you are not worried about other obligations, it is a lot easier to get to where you want to go. How ever you proceed, take your time. Going to a 4 year college is expensive and many times, you don’t really have all you need to succeed in the real world. So, if you can allot extra time to what ever you think achieving your goals will take in your trading pursuits, you will also be releasing pressure off of you expectations and this too will help you in the long run.

We are trained to get what we want and get it now, unfortunately, being apart of a small minority of traders who can pull money out of the market will take time and dedication. I truly believe, for those that want it badly enough, they will find it eventually. It may be that you have had to put your dreams on hold now and then, but with the right method, you can prosper. That does not even have to be my trading method. Their are good approaches available, but knowing which is good and which works, is another thing. All I know is, that what I do works and can be duplicated.

If you have questions and want to know more about what I do, or just need some advise, drop me an email message and I will do my best to help. If you have questions about what you are doing, and want my advise, I will help where I can.

Good trading to all, Vince

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See Yourself as the Trader You Hope To Be

Monday, September 20th, 2010

Today is September 20th and we saw more follow through as the Dow was up +145 and the S&P +16.75.

This was the likely path I had talked about a few weeks back. In my September 3 post titled, “The Market Looks and Feels Strong”, I had said that we were likely to go much higher in the coming weeks. At the time we were approaching some key resistance around the S&P 1100. As stated, if we get over the 1100 area, we are likely to go much higher around 1160 on the S&P and at least +400 points more on the Dow. We are approaching the Dow target, which would be around 10,800 but the S&P area is still a ways off. In any case, I think over all we will still see higher prices, but, we are at and or near “Major” resistance again. This resistance area is not anything you can see from any recent support or resistance area formed. This stuff is long term and is a force that needs to be overcome to get to the next level. One step at a time.

Seeing where we have come from:   We have come a long way. The last days of this August, I was saying that we are going to move out big. That was the only likely way for the market to move. The market sentiment was so bearish and so few people we bullish, that became the likely directional move, up.  I know I posted and posted about it, saying this was going to happen. It was not popular at the time and I could even feel it myself, but I knew better following the market sentiment as a excellent gauge of future direction. Well at the time, the market was taking its sweet time building a bottom base and it seemed like forever, but after a week of going nowhere, it finally happened. That was three weeks ago and here we are almost 100, that’s right, 100 S&P points higher.

This general area is the next barrier to higher prices yet. The resistance is very very strong in this area. It would be normal and natural for the market to pull back any time from here. At the same time, all of us can not rule out the possibility of blasting through this area to a final move destination. I can mark the Dow area maybe a little better and I see it around 11,500. If the market is able to get over the coming resistance area described, we will likely see this 11,500 area on the Dow in the coming weeks. I had said before that the S&P final target area may be around 1245, but I think that is a little high. It looks more like S&P 1225.

I would bet that this new excitement for higher equity prices may be enough to get everyone on board and could create a new trigger point for the downside, but that is still way off from now.

Three weeks ago at the bottom, the market sentiment numbers I was talking about “Investors Sentiment”, was at a screaming buy signal area of 31.7, if my memory serves me.  (35 is usually a trigger point)  The next week we moved up a few %, followed by the same the next two weeks to where we are now around 37%. That is still a very strong reading indicating more to come. The new numbers come out after the close of tomorrows session and can be seen for free on Thursday evening. The direct link is in the resource section of my website for anyone interested.

The chart above, is my trade for today. They are not to exciting, since I missed the big move early on. I was going to wait out the two hours in the middle of the market, but I did not leave the scene and was just looking on. I got a little board and took a few trades before I wanted to. I am trying to not trade during the 9-11 am area or 12 to 2 New York time area. The volume is so slow and the movement so flat most of the time. It is just so trying, like in my patients. I do not like to wait. That is the type of trader I am.

Ever trader has strengths and weaknesses. I know what my strengths are, as they are outlined in my trading method. My weaknesses are waiting. I don’t like it. I like to see what I want in a trade, take it and move on to the next one. In a fast market, that is just what you usually get. I thrive in that environment. In a slow market you have to wait and wait. It does me no good. I am better off to get out of the house and do something else. In fact that is the best thing to do. Fresh air does wonder for the body and in the mountains where I live, their is plenty of it.

Anyway, trading during the active time zones best serves me, but I to often slip back into my old habits as I most often miss the open.  Sooner or later I will get it. If you are a trader, trying to find your way, you would be best served to stay away from the 12-2 pm N.Y time area.

I still got a few points today, the lower side of my daily goal and that is really OK. I know I can do better, and likely will in the coming sessions. Being optimistic and confident about what you know you can get from the markets is very important. We all need to see ourselves as we expect to be, not as we are. That allows for growth and improvement.

Until next post, Vince at Sniper Day Trading, over and out.

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Winning Traders Strive for Precision Entries

Wednesday, September 8th, 2010

Today is Wednesday, September 8th, 2010 and we are looking at some very exciting possibilities coming in the days to come.

I have been looking for a break out of the 1100 S&P recent highs and we may be close. With the resistance coming in on Friday’s market close, a sell off of some magnitude was reasonable as we saw in yesterdays trading. Today, we came up to attempt a challenge of the highs, but it wasn’t ready. Time is an essential ingredient to trading and can even be considered and indicator and or (indication) of future movement, as we are in right now.

A pull back to the middle of the range is a  possibility as I mentioned last week and would bring in more selling to maybe as low as the 1070 S&P area, but two area’s would have to break down first and they are S&P futures 1092 and then 1086. As long as we stay above those levels we could be getting into position for higher prices.  A market move above today’s highs would be considered very bullish and follow through to the upside likely.   A move could come in the night trading and or in the early premarket, so trade accordingly, long or short.

So to recap, I am aware of both sides of the market as defined by the levels I mentioned above. I do have a upside bias, but the market will tell us all which way it wants to go. The price is always the best indication on what to do and when to do it. I put my opinion out their towards overall direction in a much larger time frame, the daily, but as day traders, “Price Rules”.

In today’s trading, I did not have a long time to trade only a few minutes as I was traveling to the San Francisco Bay Area. A coffee break at Starbucks was good for a small scalp trade and later on down the road, good for another couple of small scalp trades for about 3 points in total. Only traded small, but I waited for good high probable entries and took what was their. All in all, I was only following and trading the market for about 30 minutes, unlike yesterday where it was a few hours, way to long.

Yesterdays trading was a little harder (10 trades with scales) in the beginning, as I again started in the slow time of the day.  In addition to the market going nowhere, made for a difficult start. I did put it together as the last part of yesterdays market showed much better price action. That translated to movement and opportunity. I have an equity chart for yesterday and price chart for today below.

In contrast to yesterdays action, today’s was no comparison. Today had so many great opportunities to it as the market started out strong giving traders several chances to enter long as the move continued. Then the big swings started and it only got better from there.

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Trading is all about exercising good timing on your entries and exits. If you know where to get in and then get out, with reasonable targets, you could do well. If your timing is off, you will struggle and take larger stops and take them more often, before you realize that you are underwater for the day. Being behind and trying to play catch up, has its own set of problems as you are trading from a position of weakness. Getting behind is not unusual, but being able to wait for the moves that will bring you back and take you higher needs to come one trade at a time. If you focus on what you are supposed to do and not the money, the trades will produce the money. Our minds have a way of helping or hurting the cause. The results will depend on your thinking and your focus. If you know what you are supposed to do and look for, then the power rests in your ability to focus, exercise patients, and have sniper like execution on your entries. If you don’t know what you are supposed to do or look for, then that is a whole different situation.

Trading indicators are not the end all be all in the trading world. They are only a reflection of the price. I have said this many times before, but repeating that is quiet alright. Traders need to see ahead of time the price building into something he is familiar with and that will take screen time. The trading indicators confirm what you thought was going to happen anyway, or that is how it should be. Many traders rely to heavily on what ever indicators they follow without understanding why it was saying long or short.

The answer to all of this, learn how to trade independent of any indicators and when you use them in the future, you will know WHY the direction is pointing up or down based on the price. If you can’t quite make it that far, at least you need to know what good price structure is and how it is built. That way, you will not loose valuable time as you build upon your trading career.

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Good Trading to all, Vince.

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Just Released: Market Seniment lowest since March low’s of 2009

Thursday, September 2nd, 2010

Today is Thursday September 2nd, 2010 and we saw a little more follow through from yesterdays big run up, + 8.25 on the S&P , +50 points on the Dow and +23 on the NASDAQ.

We are almost there, the 1100 S&P figure I have been talking about since last week, one more day should do it. That is my short term target, with a possible pull back following. That would be the normal progression of things as we move up to that 1100 resistance area on the S&P, then to move back to around 1165/1170. That would be normal and natural for the market to do that. What happens after that is going to be the big move, if we move back to the 65/70 area, then move up off that, you will have SOLID TRADE POINTS to trade off of.  Every trader in the world will looking intently on that next move as the market will be getting SQUEEZED on both sides. Huge positions will be taken at that point. All the bears will be loading up big time as we are coming into the worst trading month of the year. Actually, September is a worst trading month overall than October. A lot of the big market crashes took place in October and that month is fast approaching as well.

One thing first, tonight after I post this blog, this weeks sentiment numbers will be out again and if anything significant is out, I will post again those numbers, but from last week the numbers would represent some bullish fuel. I can’t say for sure how the market will express itself, but a lot of people are calling for a market crash here and now. The question is, are they right and if so when will it happen.

I have made my opinion known pretty clear over the past many months. What is happening is exactly what I thought would happen as we came off the March low’s of last year. Everything is literally exactly as I said then and is now. I have changed that up just a bit as the next part did include a new bigger market decline that will last for quiet a while, but I think that is on hold right now. I can’t see the majority being right about that market call. It rarely ever happens. I could happen this time, who knows, but going by history, when only 33% on Stock Market News Letter Writers who have 100,ooo’s of subscribers collectively think the market will rally, that is a small minority position and good tell tail signs that they will get it WRONG. That is one of the catalysts that helped us rally off the recent lows. So, I am temporarily on the other side of that camp, but for how long I don’t know.

The market will collapse here sometime and hope it becomes obvious to me at that time, but probably not to the majority. I saw all the big market collapses coming in the past, not to sound cocky, but its the truth.

I will hold a few special sessions on markets of the past and how it relates to our current market and what we could expect, so look for that in the coming days.  It’s no fun talking about large equity declines, because it helps no one, but if you know something is coming like an iceberg it is normal and the right thing to do, to warn those you care about. That is what I will be on guard for in the coming days, weeks and months ahead. I know the dangers, but I think we will get through this period short term for now. Since I am on the subject, if the last market lows get taken out seeing that we have come up off the bottom nicely, you could expect to see a 1,000 point drop in the Dow and about a 100 point decline in the S&P futures in short order. That would put the S&P at about 940 with that drop happening very quickly. That is not likely to happen right now, but for some unknown reason, war, this or that, comes out, the 1040 S&P area is clearly defined and will be cause for a release of energy to those levels. Just keep that in back of your mind or right it down if you like. I do need to say, this is just my opinion and should not be considered investment advise.

Above is a chart of my trades from today. I did OK, with the first trade a loss as I to often get wrong. I need to be more patient on my first trade. Starting later in the session is not how I envision the perfect day. Right at the slow time of the day. The two hours in the middle of the session is very slow moving and can try even the most patient day trader. The first two hours and the last two hours are usually very active and what you want. Trading the two hours in the middle is not really advised, although I do it all to often. Next week marks a time of new beginnings for me as I see myself trading the first hour of the day and that’s it. It is a nice thought anyway, but one I will keep trying to do.

The price action did pick-up at 11 am West Coast, as the big traders came back into the market. We need those guys to move the market one way or another and they always seem to do a good job. Our job is to identify which way they want to take it and get in on it. Sometimes its a hit and run for a point or so and other times its a runner.

The last trade was a bit of a runner as I held on through a painful pull back. Normally I would sell some after a good push up to insulate me from a reversal, but I held onto the retracement and added on on where I thought was a low risk spot. My method said to enter where I did, but the indicator said to wait just a minute or so more. You can see in the chart above or in the short video below if you have time. I also point out all the other turning points as applied to just my idicators for the rest of the day.

Good Trading,  Vince

Alert: The new sentiment number are just in and it is a very bullish reading of 29.4%, another drop of 4 % back to back. You can see the report at this website link below and is also in the resource section of my website. This figure is the lowest reading since the March low’s of 2009, and can only be view as a lot of fuel for an unexpected market rally that is going to catch many by total surprise, but not us.

http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/investors_intelligence.htm

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Day Trading for Income

Saturday, August 14th, 2010

Today is Friday the 13th day of August and the Index’s were down slightly -16 on the Dow and -3.50 on the S&P futures.

I guess the market needed to take a breather from yesterdays sell-off, as we did not go to far in the session today. A very narrow range was not exactly what I was expecting. I thought it would start to pick up, but it did not. The market went back to sleep. Come Monday, it is going to have to show its hand if in-fact the support from Thursdays market is going hold. That is key support and if broken, we are in a bit of trouble as I see it. I expect a bounce off this current level of at least 20 S&P points, maybe a little more, come the next few sessions. After the bounce, (if it comes) that is really the moment of truth for this market.

I talked about the market sentiment in yesterdays postings as the bearish sentiment dropped a lot. Last week we saw a 6% drop in bears as per “Stock Market news letter writers”. It went from 34% bearish to only 28%. That is significant, but the more important side is the bullish percent. That did increase from 38% to 41%, still a little on the light side. A figure of 35 is bullish and we are coming off of that now and a reading of 55 is bearish. This number does not have to get to the upper extreme for the market to sell off, just somewhere in the middle is enough. Tuesday the new numbers will be coming out and if we see a rally on those days, it could push the bullish camp to the middle of range and then the market can do what ever it wants from there. A strong signal a month ago has given only a modest market move, if in-fact this market is done, that I don’t know. One thing is for sure, one needs to play the price action as it relates. A big bounce will be setting itself up for a good predictive move either way at that point.

To better illustrate this, I have a “Daily Chart” of the S&P cash market up again as I did last week. I have new notes on it as I pointed out the potential for a big drop from last Fridays blog posting. Well, we did get the drop, now what. Go see the chart below and get the rest of the details of what we could expect.

In today’s trading, since the price action was so slow, I did not push it. I only had a few trades and called it a day. I had a little over 3 points gain and just 2 ticks of lose. It wasn’t to exciting, but trying to make something where there is little, is usually not a good idea. I could have went into scalp mode and tried to pick up a few more points, but when the prices are moving so slow and there is little volume, I really don’t like it. I would rather wait. My trades are below.

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Trading for a living is a traders dreams and at times dreams do come true. For this dream to come true, one needs to have a trading plan and a back up trading plan from the first one. Things do not always work out the way we would like, but having a trading plan to begin with, puts you miles ahead of other traders who have none.  Finding the best trading instrument is also something one needs to contend with. I find that trading individual stocks are easier to trade than the S&P emini’s in a general sense, but I enjoy the trading leverage that comes with futures trading.

I find that trading for income is much easier than trying to trade all day for the sake of trading. If its the money we pursue, than trading discipline and patients is going to be in high demand. Without a high degree of trading discipline and the patients to go with it, you will end up working against yourself.

Traders do not realize that they themselves are there biggest obstacle to overcome. Read that last line again. That is right, we end up derailing our efforts to often by our lack of discipline and need for action. If a trader trades for income, then he gets what came for and leaves to enjoy the freedom that day trading was supposed to offer, or that is how it is supposed to work.

With the high degree of trading leverage that emini futures trading offers, you really don’t need to trade all day. Consistency in capturing 2-4 points per day on most days, with windfall days 2-3 times a month, should do the trick nicely. If a higher income is what you want, mastering the daily goal is the first place to start with small trading size. After that goal has been reached, then slowly increasing your size to the desired income level is next.

If an emini trader could master the 2-4 points a day average, highs and lows, including loosing days, which is 60 S&P points per month, x that by $50 dollars per contract traded and you have $ 3,000 per month. That is your minimum profit for one contract traded for the whole month. It not a lot of money, but increasing that slowly over the course of a year, could easily take you to 20 contracts. Now that is serious money, 20 x $3,000 or $60 K a month.

Increasing is an option and has its own set of psychological problems, but those limitations are usually our own inability to allow us to earn more. Our own self worth needs to be evaluated and we need to give ourselves permission to reach all of our financial goals as our plan calls for.

To day trade 20 lots in the emini market a trader really only needs about 20k in his account to put on a trade with that size, based on the trading leverage that is available to him. Each S&P point is then worth $1,000 dollars. That is a lot of bread, but that works against you just the same. Trading with that kind of leverage is definitely not advisable, but for every 3-4 thousand dollars of increased profits, one could over 3-4 months find themselves at that 20 lot level. Even averaging 2 points a day (40 points a month) will get you their in 5-6 months and give you the ability to take money out of the market each week.

It first starts with us and our mental attitude. Controlling greed and our emotions, while we trade for income. This is a marathon, not a sprint. Keep your trading funds safe until you truly posses the trading edge, then live your trading dream. (Part coming next posting)

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Quiet Trading Leading up to F.O.M.C. Annoucement Tomorrow

Monday, August 9th, 2010

Today is Monday, August 9th and the market is holding up pretty nicely in the face of that large sell-off and recovery on Friday.

The Dow is up 47 points with 35 minutes to go and the S&P +5 points as this market comes into the close. Tomorrow is a big new day as the F.O.M.C. will be meeting to decide what the direction of interest rates will be. It may be that they leave it alone, but may comment on the current environment going forward. It should get a little spark in the market because today was the slowest volume day I have seen all summer long.  This is typical, but no one seems to like it.

The only thing one can do is be sure to trade the first 60-90 minutes of the day. There you will usually find the best volume of the day and the moves to go with it.

I only have a small posting today as I have company coming over and want to get this posting up. I did not trade as I had problems with my data feed getting my charts loaded. I have a video showing only half my screen loaded with the trade matrix missing, the most important part. I can’t trade without that up, so, I did not make a big deal about. I still did a video showing the days action from the open and did take it back to the pre-market. You can see the simple turns in the market as identified by one of my trading tools. I never say what that it is and how it works, but it is a tiny part of what I look at. We make buying and selling decisions on the price as it relates to the current environment, long or short, this indicator is just a guide. That is the only and best way to trade for the long term. What we teach at Sniper Day Trading, will last the test of time because this is how the market works going back decades. This style or trading method will never become obsolete or irrelevant in future.

Above is a U-Tube video I did of today’s action as it was in progress. I show the last move and called out the market top around 12 pm West Coast at 1126.75 / 1127 and the market when up to that tick and turned down by three points, showing that was significant short term resistance as called. You can take a look at the video if you care to. It is not earth shattering, but you can see the quiet natural flow of prices in a small tick chart format.

Look for the market to trade quietly until the Fed announcement tomorrow at 11:15 West Coast. Then, we should see more volume and movement as least for awhile. Good Trading,    Vince

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