Archive for the ‘Trading Turning Points’ Category

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Market getting ready for Huge Move

Thursday, September 29th, 2011

Today is September 29th, 2011; The market took off to the upside early on this morning Thursday for a 21 point advance. The bulk of it came from the Globex pre-market session but the S&P and Dow did have about 30 minutes of follow through after the open. That set the stage for a huge drop all the way back down to yesterdays closing price of 1149, back to zero. There it set the stage for move back to the middle at S&P 1160 and yet again a move back down as I write. It is currently 9:18 West Coast with the markets open for a little less than 3 hours so far today.

Above are my trades for today and again missed the early action. Plenty of good potential trades short today as you can see. The signal at the top was just at the market top and secondary trades are as shown. Some of those entries are better than others but that is just the indicator signals.

I trade a solid trading method that has nothing to do with the trade signals although it matches up with them almost perfectly. That is the truth of the matter, as knowing when, why and where to enter all ahead of time before a signal is generated as shown is what is needed and will come as a trader learns how to read and interpret the price as it relates to the method.

There are some good trading programs out there and some worthy of traders efforts, but this is my connection with the trading markets and it is serving me and members well.

Today’s trading went OK, but I totally jumped on the first trade to soon, seeing what the second trade series was likely to produce as it did. Again, the market needed more time to absorb the drop as things settled into position. Again, jumping the gun in seeing where prices were going to go for the short term, 1160, came in to early. I eased in small and added at the same or higher prices, never averaging down, and got stopped out for a little bigger loss.  Feeling confident, re-entered little at a time on the advance for the 1160 target.

I could have avoided the two series of losses, but I needed the trade I talked about in a recent blog, a “no trade”.  That means just waiting for the highest potential turning points as it relates to the method. With an approximate gain of about six net points, the end result was very good.

I traded for one hour and started to follow the market just a few minutes before first entry. The time for reward ratio is very good and more than enough to call it a day. The markets are likely to continue to be active and looking for a market turn around either late today or tomorrow for much higher prices in the days to come. A very unpopular opinion, but one I will hold onto until something changes. A closing low of 1120 on the S&P will make me re-think my position, so until then.

Days back I liked the long side of the market at its closing price of 1128 and think we have a good shot to regain all loss ground from last week and whole lot more. Stay tuned and good trading to all.

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Additional Market Risk & Exposure

Wednesday, August 10th, 2011

The markets are in a hot zone right now, with volume and moves accelerated greatly. This can be a good market to trade if your trading platform is solid and trade execution speed lightning fast. That is not to mention, if your timing is off and you are not precise with your entries, you will take unwanted draw downs and losses. You need to be on your game if you want to participate. Anything less and you will be taking on a lot of additional risk and losses and your efforts will seem more like a gamble.  Anytime you do not posses the trading advantage, you are just guessing and I don’t have to tell you the results of that kind of effort.

Be selective, wait for the best entries with this kind of market. You don’t want to over expose yourself to this market as it can chew you up and spit you out. So, an underexposure is really best, but trade if you must with as much precision as you can. A stop loss for a typical trade a few weeks ago might have to be doubled and or tripled to have the same margin, but the targets need to be double or triple as well, to compensate for the additional risk. In addition, traders should consider to lower there contract size if they do not want to take on additional risk. Being aggressive in this kind of market can bring in windfall profits, but it has a lot of additional risks and can be a double edge sword.

In today’s trading, I wanted to trade the pre-market, but I was not up and ready in time, I just took a little extra time to relax and prepare after the markets active opening. We did see a little slower action a couple of hours into the day, as compared to the open and made two trades in total for the day. The first one, had good timing on the entry, very little draw down and ended up getting stuck in the trade as I tried to exit on a limit order in a falling market. A couple of attempts and I found myself all the way back down and then some for a stop loss of 3.50 points. Next trade was the same type of entry in a quiet small consolidation area, with very little draw down and great movement with the first exit a market order for +9 points and the second one for a stop market of 8.50 points. A good day, with no need to push it in about 60 minutes of trading.

I have the turning points marked up as per the trading indicators, but this is not the trading method. My trading is price based which takes into account time, space (movement) and energy. I won’t go into it, as I usually don’t, but I like to show those who look on that there is a basis for price movement that they can understand. Trading indicators are used by many a trader and it is something that others can relate to. So, I make that part easy in showing how price correlates to the indicators. This can be very helpful for many as they learn the price action part of the method, which is where the real power of this method comes in at. The indicators do a nice job of confirming the method as you can see hundreds of times in the daily postings I put up.

What ever your method, be consistent in doing the same types of things when they are warranted. This way, you will be able to repeat your success as you move forward. I wish all my reader the very best.

Trade well and committed, Vince

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Hitting the Trade Zones

Monday, May 2nd, 2011

Today’s trading went well, with 4 trades all gains. A nice easy day, but it took a while to get all the trades to pay off. The trading action and movement is definitely slower than times past. The market tended to have a slow trending effect, but not with great movement. I started late today, but came up with good gains overall. Today’s trades below.

In the screen shot I have above, you can see the trade zones are restricted to a very small window. Those windows are the area’s that pose limited risk with higher reward. A trade to soon or to late can pose additional risk to the trader, so waiting until the price gets into position is key. A trader with good trade timing is going to be hitting those trade zones. Every index, stock and commodity has there trade zones that offer the limited risk and high rewards I am talking about.

The key is finding those low risk zones, without putting your account equity at undue risk. I am sure there are many who can do this using other trade methods, but all I know is that this works. The trader just needs to be able to follow it and stay within the guild lines set forth.

What you see in the screen shots are limited views of my platform. I don’t show it all, but I show some, which is better than most. In addition, I show all my trades for every session I trade. The good, the bad and the ugly, which on occasion exists.

The last few months, I have been grading myself as far as my performance in staying within the trading method. It is not totally tied to profit, but more closely tied to doing the right things.

In other topics, we have seen the market follow through all last week with gains from that call I made in the daily’s, a week ago Friday. The market looks like it will be under some selling pressure over the next few days, as price settles back in a little, but we will see. Until next time, Good Trading to all.

Vince

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Market Turning Points

Saturday, April 30th, 2011

4-29-11;

Market turning points are those area’s on the screen at which you see a distinct change in market direction. Those trading area’s at a minimum can be considered area’s of interest where a trade decision can be made, long or short.

If a trader were to use a scalping method, that could get him in and out quickly, profit can be made. You would first need the ability to spot the market turning points and those area’s of interest, to see if it lines up with your established scalping method. If it does, moving in to scalp a few ticks to a few points is the objective.

The markets are always pushing and pulling in one direction or another. Being able to enter with the lowest potential risk against you, draw down, is essential. Sniper Day Trading has established such a scalping method that does just that.

Their are many across the globe who aspire to be a successful scalp trader but have found their share of difficulties along the way. Being successful in this business is about knowing, that is, knowing when to enter the market and when to wait, you could say trade timing.

This takes us back to, “Market Turning Points” and how they can keep the scalp trader on the right side of the market. That is first and foremost a big problem for many, as their trade timing is just off, due to a lack of knowing which way the dominant trend of the market is in.

If you know which way the dominant trend of the market is in, you then work on your trade timing to zero in on your low risk entries. Many traders constantly struggle with all of this, as they find themselves second guessing their trade decisions.

Having a solid method to draw on is key, as it will give you all the things mentioned above. Becoming a successful scalp trader can be achieved but it does take hard work and dedication.  Identifying the dominant trend will give you market direction and your low risk entries with excellent trade timing. That sums it all up right there.

It all starts with knowing. If you know, you will be empowered to act. A lack of knowledge will keep you in the dark, wondering if you will ever get it right. It could take you many years to get this knowledge (if ever) if you were to find it on your own or you could speed it up, seeking out the information and thus becoming in “the know”.

The choice is always ours, just like the trade decisions we make during the session. We need to live with them and hopefully learn from our past so we can adjust ourselves for the future.

I wish all my readers the very best, Good Trading to all.         Friday’s scalp trades taken below, click on image to enlarge it.

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Increased Volitility Today

Wednesday, February 9th, 2011

2-9-11;

Today the market came to life just a bit with a wider trading range than we have seen in some time. The futures trading volume increased about 30 % from the very slow pace of days past, which is good, but overall the general market has been rising on low volume which is not good by any means. There is no conviction in the market place and stocks are rising in part because no one is selling, “yet”.

I hope the rally lasts forever, but we all know that is not going to happen. A move back to the old highs, would be amazing and to me, unlikely, but stranger things have happened. All I know right now is, this market is extended and a pull back from these levels would not be out of the question, as stated in yesterdays post.

In today’s trading, I only took a couple of trades, made a few S&P points and was done for the day. This would have been a good day to add on more points, because of the increased volatility, but I had an easy day in mind with little struggle and it worked out just that way.

I only took one tick of draw down on both entries which is perfect. I did scale out a little early on both entries but that was fine. Good timing, easy fills and no trading anxiety. I did see the possibility of lower prices, but my intent for quick and easy won out over my curiosity on my last exit. I put up an easy path of riding my stop down on the chart below that I could have taken. The indicators I have up also confirm, but what I am not showing is something to help ride out those extended runs if one elects to stay in. I posted on the chart where your stop could be in relation to the move down based on the method, risk tolerance and one’s objectives.

Today overall was an easy day to read the market all through the day. In looking back on the afternoon session, it was picture perfect as I see it, through the eyes of a sniper, that is.

This can be learned, although I would say it does take time. Traders need to see the moves ahead of time, before the indicators reflect the change.

Which reminds me of a move I saw late in the session just before the end of the day. I could see that coming crystal clear. At first the market did show resistance up at 3:30 N.Y. to 3:48 p.m. , but from 3:50 to 3:53, I could see that move coming. I didn’t trade it, but it went right to a possible trade to target several points higher.

The point is, you can get a good sense for what the market will do when you are able to apply the right principles to them. That is not something we are born with, but can be learned. What we are born with is the ability to loss trade after trade. That is normal and we don’t have to work hard at that. I am sure someone has thought of trading the exact opposite of what they would normally do to try and make money. Sounds funny, but that is pretty much what it takes for many traders to see that the easy and natural untrained mind is destined to do the wrong thing at the wrong time.

It is no accident that low risk trades can be put on and taken off, but is something that can be learned over time. The key there is over time. It will take time to feel and work through the markets nuances, even while you are working with a good trading method. There is no quick fix, one size fits all way to trade. Everyone’s risk tolerance is different and they react differently at different times and conditions. I am on the cautious side right now, but that will change to a more aggressive stance when market conditions change.

Well, that’s it for now, until tomorrow. Good Trading to all.

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Low Volatility Keeps Traders Away

Tuesday, December 14th, 2010

Today is Tuesday December 14th, and what a slow day of trading until the Fed announcement at 11:15 West Coast today.

The last few sessions have seen slow range bound market moves that are very trying for many traders. I was happy to have basically stepped aside the last few days. I dipped my toe in the water today before the Fed announcement, but I did not like what I felt and left the trade with a one tick gain. I thought it just might have been best to close it up and see if I can wait for tomorrow session. I hope to be ready for the open and see if I can make up some ground for not trading much the last few days.

The market seems to be a bit resilient in that it does not want to go down. Since Thanksgiving, the market sentiment turned very bullish which generally is not a good sign and will likely mark a coming change in direction. I have seen many times over the years, as if you don’t get a reaction after the shift in market sentiment, a bigger play is at hand.

More and more traders, investors, and the like are and have become more bullish as the tax repeal seems like it is going to go through which for one, will keep capital gains at the lower level. If for what ever reason, it seems like capital gains tax will go up, you will see the peoples reaction in selling equities.

In looking at the daily charts, I do see a little more room up if the market wants to exercise that, to around 1260 or so, but we will take one day at a time. With the masses being so bullish right now, a sell off can come in at any time. The longer it takes for things to settle in, the more people will become fully invested and the slaughter will become that much more painful for those who don’t see it coming. I have never seen an extreme bullish bias correct by itself without the help of a falling market. I am sure this one will be no different, but we will just have to wait it out.

Currently, the daily momentum is still  pointing up, but the last two sessions we have seen late sell-offs towards the end of the day usually not a sign a strength.

Below is a U-Tube video of today’s action leading up to the Fed announcement. Nothing to exciting but show a few scalp trades entry spots that could have been had. I trade and teach how to trade based off of the price and the traders that drive the price. If you know how they typically think and react when certain conditions are present, you gain valuable insight into the next move. That is what I teach and how to project where prices can go. You can take this method and move it  to different size tick or volume charts and or move it to time charts. It will work on stocks and or other futures.

In the video above, towards the end, I show the S&P 500 cash market in a daily chart and point out some of the corresponding trade signals based on the indicators, but that again is to show how they line up with the indicators on a much larger time frame. Trading and following indicators is not the Sniper Day Trading Method, but understanding price action and how traders react to certain area’s as it unfolds is. The indicators can confirm your decision to buy or sell, but is no means the reason.

Good Trading to all.

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New Contract Rollover ESH11 & Two Trade Video’s Below

Thursday, December 9th, 2010

Today is Thursday December 9th and we have a new contract symbol for the emini markets coming in today.

Just a reminder, to change all your symbols for your futures contract trading for sure in Fridays market. The volume will have shifted to the new contract and that is where most traders will be at.

The market remains strong as it accepts all the new players into the market. As long as their are new buyers coming in, the move will continue. We have hit a point of exuberance in market direction on November 16th, three weeks ago. The stock market continues to hold up in the face of this strong emotion. The public is buying into this rally, believing that all is well. This market can go higher as it is, but not for long.

On November 18th, I put out a warning about this shift in market sentiment. That sudden change, put a strong bullish bias onto the market by the public. I mentioned back then, that a close below the S&P futures 1175 area, would kick off the decline, but we never did that. The best was an intra day low met with a reversal above that number. If those prices  hold, a move back up to the middle of the range and or back up the very top of the range was possible as I pointed out. We did that now in both index’s, the Dow and the S&P. The market still looks strong and can not rule out some short term continued strength. As all this time has passed, it has allowed for the market to move higher, if it wants to. The key there is time and it has passed which can make way for some addition short term highs.

Personally, I am glad to see the market move higher hear as it does allow those who want to better recover some of their long term losses that opportunity. You will never realize those gains, if you don’t sell as the market is moving up into resistance. Their could be a little more room on the upside, and I do see it. I am sure others in “the know” also see it.

The market sentiment did increase to 56.2 bullish, up slightly from last week. This just announces that the public is getting comfortable with the rally and may just pour more money into the market. The news is looking upbeat as forecasters are  adjusting their estimates up based on a few key points. The Tax issue is still not solved, but I keep hearing on the radio, that it will get worked out and I hope so. If for some reason, it falls through, you will see sudden price rejection. It is a biggie. Prices are being bid up on the hope of something that has not yet happened, so be careful with that. I hope we can move into the New Year with the market on the highs, why not, it will make a few people happy, at least for while.

I don’t think it is going to last, as all market extremes in market sentiment of the past 25 years that I have been watching has always ended in the excess being worked off by a reverse in direction of significant magnitude. I can not imagine that this time is going to be any different.

In my week end post, I will be sure to put up a daily chart or do a video of what is happening in the daily/weekly markets so you can see how all of this relates to the price and what we can expect. So, be sure to look for that. I hope to get that up tomorrow.

I did not post yesterday, but have a U-Tube Video I did yesterday and one I did for today. Both days had hit the modest side of my daily goal and was OK with it. Yesterday I think there was only two trades and today only one. The volume was light today, as I had to wait quiet a while for the price to get to where I saw it going, but it  got there and all was well.

The video’s above, if you care to watch. I show the turning points and likely continuation moves as marked on the screen. I would not be taking all of those trades typically, as I only need one or two. At times, I trade for a lot more and pick up over and beyond my daily goal by several times. Picking up a few points with little struggle is nothing to complain about.    Good Trading.

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Stock Market puts in Reversal Day

Thursday, September 30th, 2010

Today is Thursday, September 30th 2010 and the market looks like it put in a reversal day.

The Dow was up over 100 points just after the open as the buying kicked in from yesterdays inside trading day. The S&P was up similarly and just before 7am, the high for the day was hit. The market quickly filled the gap and then some as the drop did not stop until we saw 200 points shaved off the top in the Dow and 20 points off the S&P.

Today’s closing position was very important as it showed weakness into the close, putting in what I call a reversal day. That is not usually a good sign and we could see a break down coming either in tomorrow market, (Friday). I will give a few parameters that will show which way it is going to go.

Currently, we are still OK, but at any big daily turning point the market is always going to get tricky. This is part of that trickiness being played out.

I will be watching two numbers tomorrow, both to downside, to see it we will hold or not. The first one is today’s low at 1131.25 and the next one is the low set two days ago, at 1127.25.  Both of those will be your clue. The market is currently sitting on a major tipping point. I mentioned about the major resistance overhead and we saw that played out today. Now we will see if the downside support will hold. If those numbers get broken, you will see a big wave of selling come into the market. It is very likely that it will last a few weeks and take the market to as low as 1082 on the S&P.  There is support around that number, as we will be set with a whole new set of conditions.

Under normal conditions, the market is likely to sell off and break the numbers I mentioned above as the reversal day pattern is a good clue and we are likely to see the move down as mentioned, but I said normal conditions. We have not seen anything normal as far as economic reports and stock market behavior. A terrible report comes out and the market rally’s huge. That is why I don’t get to caught up in the reports, but they usually do have some connection to market behavior. That is normal and we are not normal right now. That is why we have to wait and see how the market is going to show us its hand. If the levels hold that is going to be great. It may just move against all the bears that are betting the farm on the coming drop.

So all one can do right now, is wait and see. I would be on guard for for the party to begin. The movement is going to start heating up, either way. Coming off the summer month slow down,  big players are coming out and they are getting ready to move the market.

OK, I was waiting for the sentiment numbers and I just got the delayed release. They are up 1.9% from last week and still in a fairly good range. Here is how it has gone over the last 5 weeks. We hit a market extreme at 29% bullish 5 weeks ago. That is a screaming buy signal for a move in the opposite direction. (trigger points 35% or less bullish and 55% or more bearish). This works in the opposite direction. So five weeks ago, the sentiment from the professional newsletter writers was only 29%.   I was screaming it for days before the move. Well, we are up 100 S&P points from then and at a major wall.

Back to the numbers; the last five weeks are as follows, 29% , 33.3%, 36.7%, 41.4% and today 43.3%.  That is not even in the middle of the range and has to be viewed as still showing some degree of strength.

One scenario would be, if we do move back down to the middle of the range, those numbers will again come off and get into another market extreme. The market sentiment will again shift to a minority position of bullishness and we could then have another large rally getting over this very large current resistance point.

I will likely know which way it is all going to go in the morning, Fridays new session. If nothing happens, we may have to wait until Monday, but we at least know exactly where we are and where the market is likely to go once it tips its hand, well that is how I see it.

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In today’s trading I took a few good trades and made up for yesterdays non performance. An equity trade chart below shows my results. Traded just 3 and then 2 contracts, but had a pretty good day. I missed all the move up and down as I came in as the market was finding its daily bottom. Just scalped my through the mess and was quiet satisfied. Looking forward to tomorrows session.

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S&P futures hit 1080 in Mondays Night Trading

Monday, July 12th, 2010

Today is Monday, July 12th and a pretty flat day on the Street.

No great volume or movement today as the market looked like it was putting in a top, only to have the market rally towards the end of the day. In the night trading, currently, we are seeing 1082 as the high, finally hitting the S&P futures 1080 + or – as called, but no market reversal as of yet.

The charts below, are from today’s action. A few trades early on, 10 minutes of trading in the morning and 30 minutes of slow trading in the late afternoon. I had limited time to trade today, but that was fine. Daily goal met.

That’s it for now, more in tomorrows posting. Good Trading.

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Today’s Turning Points in the Sell Off

Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

Today is Tuesday, June 29th and did not get the rally but the sell off as the Index’s drop across the board.

The Dow dropped 266 and the S&P over 30 points as we closed near the lows of the day. Yesterday I was expecting a rally and it did not happen. We put in an inside day which generally will cause the market to move big once either end of the range is broken. I pointed out that if 1066 got broken, then we will sell off, but should stay above 1042. We pushed the limit on the lower end going through that level briefly and closing right on top of it in the cash S&P and slightly below it in the futures. I will give the market a little wiggle room here and point out, if we get more of this selling tomorrow it should only feed on itself for some time.

The glimmer of hope is that we are flirting with a buy signal on the sentiment survey that I follow. With today’s sell off, it could drop the numbers into an extreme position, but won’t know that until tomorrow. If there is a change worth noting, I will put up a short blog post noting that early in the day. If there is no signal change, I will skip it and post the numbers in the evening.

No trading for me today as I am taking a break for a while. It would have been a good day to trade, but having the ability to not trade is just one more discipline I get to develop.

I do have a video below of the turning points as identified just by a couple of my indicators. Trading is a lot more involved than excellent indicators, but they can help. We teach and follow price movement apart from indicators. I know I have said that many times, but it can’t help be repeated. If you know how to read the price, you can write your own ticket. You will have insight into which trades to take and why. I would not be taking all the trades as identified below, but there is nothing wrong with any of the entries. The smaller time frame complements this chart and makes it easier to get in at these turning points. I can show more data with this larger chart, something different than I usually show.

Good Trading and be safe !

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