Friday’s trades 2-3-12. Friday we saw a large gap up, as the market continues its trek higher. It has gone a little higher than I thought it would go, but the market can do what ever it wants. My job is to take a little out of it on the way. I am little short of words the last few posts, but will have more to say this coming week.
The short trade in the chart below is a little in response to the tight narrow range as it really was not a method trade. A good low risk trade non the less, with only a 3 tick stop on it after entry.
The market overall is hinting to higher yet prices in the daily’s, but once we get to a confirmed extreme, I will then again share my opinion as I did jump the gun in anticipation of it. Until then, I will plug away. Good Trading to all, Vince
Today is the first day of February, 2012 and the market showed that it still has something left in it as we saw a gap higher and follow through during the day. Only late in the session did price come off, but still enough to hold onto most of the days gains with the Dow +83 and the S&P futures +12 on the session.
Today as mentioned we saw a large gap higher. That does tend to change the price action after the open as I have seen so often. The bulk of the gains came in the night session, leaving little left for the regular session traders. This is a goodexample of being careful on days like today. If you happen to get in early and ride up the move to later in the session, fine, but if you came in looking for price swings on a day like today, you were disappointed.
I was late coming in, which has been typical to when I usually start and had a good first trade short for a quick good scalp. Just after, the trade I would have taken at around 9:15 a.m. West Coast, I had to take a call and missed the trade. I was looking for a continuation trade higher and that is just the way it goes. I would have been done right there as days like today can present problems with tight ranges because of the earlier gap higher.
After that, with the narrow trading range and lack of movement, I began to reach in looking for the next trade. I did not want to trade all day for sure, so I went hunting. This is a mistake as it goes against the method and is not really a good idea. It could have worked out but today it did not. You can see that the next two trade series I was going against the grain in trying to “pick a top”. Again, that was not a method trade and you can clearly see that in the trade indicators below.
I did manage to come up with a positive session and a modest daily goal, but only as I hit the last trade hard with a heavier position. I could have taken another trade that was below that, but was glad to stop where I did.
Day’s like today can be a little difficult. The best advise is tailor your expectation down and be content with modest gains if you have them. This is not a day to look for big moves. The market was just not giving it up and so adjusting your targets and daily goal to be inline with the day was in order.
Tomorrow is a new day with new reads and a complete new start point. Even though today turned out OK, I really don’t like to see myself going against the grain like I did. It says a few things about me and I do have to dig that up and get at the root, so I don’t see it again any time soon.
This is a good example of why I write my blog and post my trades. If I don’t want to embarrass myself and show what bad trades I made, then all I have to do is make the right choices as per the method and all is well.
OK, I will end this here and post my trades for the day below. Wishing you all the best.
1-24-12; Today was a quick trading day and a quick blog post for me, as it is Wednesday already, 12:24 a.m. and I am way overdue for sleep. So, I will only post my trades below.
In today’s trading, I took 3 trades for about 3 net points total and was done in around 45 minutes. I started just as that rally took off before my first entry and could see that there was a few more ticks left in the move. I could have waited, but was able to get a little before the turn. See notes on screen shot for the rest.
I made mention in yesterdays blog somewhat how I lay out and setup my charts. I don’t show you everything that I use, but this may give you some insight on how I look at things. I won’t always show this full picture view but I am trying to stretch myself a little in showing a touch more. Best to all my readers, Vince
Today is Monday October 17th, 2011 and will just be posting my trades from Friday and Monday with limited comments. I plan to continue writing where I left off last week so those looking for more of that, check back tomorrow as I will try and get my post up early.
Today’s market saw a healthy pull back before hitting 1232 in the Globex night session, with limited damage to the loss of momentum. Tomorrow will be an important day to see if the market can shore up the weakness. Overall, we will see higher prices, even if in the short term the market pulls back more from here. World events do look a bit scary out there and one could understand traders bearishness, but we will need to work off more of this bearish tone before that will happen and the easiest way to do that is for the markets to go up.
Friday’s Trades below and today’s will be under that, both days with good gains and daily goals.
Today is July 7th, 2011 and we saw more bullish action on the street today. It looks like the market found something to rally on in the better than expected jobs report. The bulk of the days gains came in the gap opening and left little room for the rest of us. Often a very large gap opening will take volatility away from the rest of the session and today was no exception.
Later on in the day the market did give those who could wait, a few good long opportunities. I stopped just before that, but that is really fine. I had a small loss on the session and just gave up with the lack luster price action. I have a screen shot of the day action below. The indicators were on, but a few of the early trades I took would have been better served if I waited. All in all, I am OK with it, a very small loss is fine and can easily be made up in another session. I won’t be thinking about making it up, but it will just happen. That way, there is no added reminder or pressure to do so. Good Trading to all.
Today, April 21st 2011, we saw Gold & Silver hit 31 years highs with amazing demand for the metals. Just since January, Silver had pulled back from 31 to 27 per oz, where it took on another massive move higher, to now almost 47 in less than 4 months.
If you compare the high in Silver to the Highs seen in the early 80’s where the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the Silver market, the metal would have to move up to, I believe, $140 an oz just to be at par with where it was back then, because of inflation.
If you ask me, Silver and Gold are just getting started, even though they have been in a long term bull move for more than 10 years. Both of those metals are a very good insurance policy against a paper dollar that has seen its purchasing power dwindle year after year, decade after decade.
Below is today’s turning points in the small T-2 chart for Sniper Day Trading. Most of the days turning points are seen, but there were some very good trades before that not shown on the screen shot.
The Silver market is huge, with contract size being at 5,000 oz, a 1 dollar more in the metal represents $5,000 dollars. With today’s move, over 2 dollars from the previous open, you have a basic windfall for many.
Looking at it another way, scalp trading the metal for .10 to .20 cent moves is $500 – $1,000 dollars per trade. It will work the same against you if you are wrong, so be sure you know what is going on and are well capitalized and trading a precision trading method.
My trading method works the same with Silver as it does with the S&P. Today’s moves are only an example of what has been happening for months. The moves are very much in line with the trading method and very predictable when seen through the eyes of a Sniper.
Trading this market, you need to be a Sniper, picking the exact area of interest as price gets ready to move out. I have those area’s circles and identified above. Click on the chart and you will see the turning points here just the same way you see them in the S&P.
The Gold and Oil market are two other markets with great interest and plenty of emotion backing them.
The S&P did trade today, but I took the day off. There was no movement, and that I am sure could have frustrated many a trader. It does not pay to try and trade a market that has virtually no trading range at all.
The market will still be here next week and we will again see life coming back into the index’s. Until then, lay low and safe.
Tomorrow is Good Friday and I believe shortened trading session? Be sure you know. I would already know that, but I don’t plan to trade, so don’t need to know . The point, check if you are going to trade. It is no fun seeing the market close on you with contracts still on board, now having to hold over the weekend. I did that once, and only once.
T0day is Monday October 18th, 2010 and the market did continue its advance as called in yesterdays blog with the Dow up +80 points and the S&P +3.75 points on the close.
In yesterdays blog post I said the market would likely advance even though the market at the time was down over 8 S&P future points (about 80 Dow Points) on its way to over -10 point S&P points and rallied as I thought it would. It is the start of another wave coming this week which should get the S&P to 1200. Their is a little left in this market and it is getting played out as we speak.
One statement that I could not forget from yesterdays writings was, “The rally would not end until all the shorts have covered and the longs are all invested”. That stuck to me for a while, because that is what I think is now happening. The big decline that everyone was expecting in late August/ early September, never happened and those traders and investors that went short then are the ones who are helping cover this market to new high ground. We are now around 140 S&P points above that low turning point on the S&P with a little more to go.
Everyone needs to do a little soul searching and come to the realization that the economy is being pumped up from various directions. I won’t go into what I could at this time, but just know, markets are a lot bigger than you and me. We just need to know who is playing and what is their objective to know the next move. You will never come a realization of fact until you see things as they are and not as you want them to be. Far to many people are seeing things as they hope, dream and wish, but its not about us and what we want in this world. It is about what is and what are you going to do about it. Harsh words, I know, but this is the only kind of thinking that will keep you on the right side of the market.
Their is a time to bearish and a time to be bullish. Late August in general, was not a time for a bearish position. Just like what is potentially shaping up now as not a time for a bullish position. So, be like a doctor and take the pulse and heart rate of the market. Do not see it as you want it to be, because the market is larger than you and does not really care what you or I think. Try and see the masses and what are they doing and why are they doing it. Their you will get answers as to the real intentions of what is taking place.
In today’s trading I did have a quiet morning to follow the markets. I often don’t trade the early market open, but I am trying to change a long habit of trading when ever. With a solid methodology, a trader can do this, but it could end up being more work than it has too. Meaning, if trying to trade the slow mid day portion of the day, most traders will struggle with issues. Market to slow, no patients to wait for the setup, anxiety, forcing trades are just a few problems traders will face during the 9 to 11 am West Coast time. It could serve as a good time to learn or get ready for the afternoon session or what have ya, but as a rule, traders should be very careful trying to trade during this time.
Back to how I did today. I took a few more trades than I wanted to, but enough to get what I came for. I know that on the open, the market is not always going to show its hand so quickly, so I was ready for a couple of scalp trades. The two I took, were just a little out of reach, I did not get filled on the first one and did not reach the second one when I want to get cover. It all worked out in the end and chalked up another winning day. Nothing earth shattering, but we have to take what the market gives and it was not putting out a whole lot in the early morning. The chart below.
Good trading to all, until next time, Vince over and out.
Today is Friday, September 10th, 2010 and we saw the Dow up 47 points and the S&P December Futures up +7.25 points.
We continue to slowly move higher as today was a very quiet trading day. We saw most futures traders in the financials switch to the next front month as I mentioned in my blog yesterday. Traders need to be aware of these days as it could end up costing them money. Mark your calenders and know when that day is coming so you won’t be surprised.
Today’s trading was pretty uneventful for me. I wasn’t even going to trade, but late in the session I did decide to engage. I had only a few trades and picked up a small sum. I did not pressure myself with hitting my daily goal, because of the slow low volume day. I missed all of the early session and started to watch things during the slow time of day. Later on, it did pick up, but only a touch. Anyway, I have a video of the whole session showing the turning points and the new contract month for the S&P, ESZ10.
Their is not a whole lot as far as direction and trend that I have not already said in recent days. I do see some competing area’s of leadership when compared to the Dow and the S&P. The S&P has cleared some overhead resistance that it needed to get over and it has done that the last two days, while the Dow has not. About 80 Dow points higher their is some invisible resistance to overcome, so we will see on Monday if we trade to that area and then take a breather.
It was good to see the market close near the highs of the session, a bonus for Mondays open. The closing days position has a lot to do with future direction as it relates to the daily and even the weekly charts. Depending on the previous price action, a close near the highs of the day, will tend to have bullish tones for the next session. Many traders take their Que from this type of closing position and will have orders pending the open of the next session. That leads to buying and often times, buying begets more buying, (short covering and regular interest).
Going forward, I do believe the bias will be to the upside. I really should not get to caught up into figuring out every twist and turn in the daily and weekly charts. I do that because I know many people follow it and it does give me something to write about. It is very interesting to do so, but as day traders, we are really most concerned with the turns inside each day. Every day is a fresh start with no baggage before it. We need to leave yesterdays gains and or losses behind us and focus on what is in front of us. If any trader gets to preoccupied with past history, whether it is good or bad, it can be harmful to your current fresh start day.
Traders need not get giddy with large gains or depressed with losses. If you do, you will be working against yourself. Everyone is different and your excess emotions will get played out negatively against you. How do we guard ourselves against this emotion? Decide now that you are a professional and then act in accord with what you feel this image best represents yourself. Controlling trading emotions should be at the top of the list.
Next, I could think of bragging about one’s new title as “Day Trader”. It is an admired profession, but most people know that this is a very hard thing to master. By releasing the controllable emotion of excitement and hope for your new future to others, you work against yourself in ever realizing those dreams. The energy that gets released in the form of loosely sharing with others, takes power and energy away from you. One of the reasons and their are many, is, you create an image for yourself that may be hard to live up to. If things take longer or don’t work out the way you plan, you may find yourself fibbing about your progress to keep up the image you created by loosely sharing and that creates a whole new set of problems. In addition, the emotional high of sharing and releasing this emotion is in itself a form of gratification, which then reduces your resolve to make it all a reality. It is sad to say, but that is the truth. This makes it ever so much more difficult to reaching those sought after goals. So decide now that you will keep your new venture close to the vest.
Emotion come in many forms. The ones I mentioned above are not easily identified by ourselves when we do it. It sometimes takes an outsider to point it out to us, because as mentioned, its not easy to see.
We are much more akin to hearing about the emotions of “Fear & Greed”. One can never over state those two. They make traders do things that they never thought they could do in a rational world, but once those two emotions latch on to you, watch out. If you can identify it ahead of time and that is what I am trying to do here today, we should just stop trading. That may be even if you are up on the day and especially down for the day. Usually, our trading only gets worst when you let these emotions out of the bag. Rather than go into it now, I need more time to better address those two. I have wrote about it before, but many months ago I am sure. My perspective has likely changed a little as I have a lot more input to add against the topic.
To recap, all successful traders need to see themselves as they want to be. “A professional Day Trader who earns his living or supplements is living from the financial markets”. Maybe it would be a good idea to write down a few things that you need to change so that you can mold yourself into that description. It is different for everyone, but if we take this one step forward towards that end, we will be making progress and isn’t that what it is all about. We are all on this journey together, so you are not alone. I have many things I need to change to better meet that description myself. Even if financial goals are met, often, their are other area’s of self improvement that we know we should be addressing and that is progress one day at a time.
Good Trading to all and have a great weekend, Vince
P.S. Do something fun before the weather changes !
Today is Wednesday, July 28th and the market is pulling back a little after yesterday’s gap opening higher.
We hit some resistance yesterday, as the market pushed up yet another day in face of bad news, but today, it looked clear that a pull back was in order. After early weakness, the market did present itself for new short opportunities, of which I did not have the time to trade. I got stuck in the dreaded dead zone, mid day. The market performs so much better in the AM and afternoon trading sessions, but I am partial to the AM. I don’t often trade it, as I wish sometimes I lived on the East Coast. That would make it a lot easier. I should not complain, so I will just clam up about it. All I can say is, I am working on it.
The after market trading in the S&P, is showing some strength, with the current price at 1104. I see short-term resistance coming in at 1105.50 and will likely trade back down, for at least a moment. If this market can get over the 1106 futures number, we could see 1110 pretty quickly. This is just the next couple of likely moves in the morning session. If 1106 is broken, we should trade up to 1110 or so.
The market is going to need an element of time. Time is very important in the trading equation. The stock market moves through time and space. It has a natural rhythm to it and natural trading target area’s that it will gravitate to. The element of time is something that is often forgotten. Without time, the market would not move. I know that sounds like an obvious statement, but traders often want what they want and they want it now.
The market will not give you what you want on cue. You have to be in tune with it and trade on its time. After a big market move, many times you will see the market go into a slow consolidation, of short swings up and down. With no real direction, it is in effect moving sideways trying to digest the big move it just made.
When you have a large meal at home or at a restaurant, you need to pause, take a break and then maybe have desert. The desert can be the last wave up in an ongoing move, but after that, it is time to relax and digest the meal. Every chart has a left and right side of the chart. The left side is called the acceleration phase, the right side is called the deceleration phase. There is a top in the middle that separates the two phases and that is an expression of time as the market goes back and forth, up and down, as the struggle for control takes place. This happens everyday, a balance of power is waged. We should not consider ourselves smarter than the market and we should not argue about its directions because the market is always right. We are the ones who at times don’t get it right. So what are we going to do about, ( I ), get on the right side of the market and go with it and not against it. That too, seems like an easy answer to a not so easy task, but every trader needs to find the rhythm of the market and trade with it.
I put up a couple of indicators on my screen shots to show my readers how the price drives the market to these natural turning points that we see everyday. Day trading or any kind of trading, is about getting into sync with the natural rhythm of the market in that specified time frame. This is expressed in many time frames across the board. The market is amazing and I don’t know of anything else like it. I have talked before on how the stock market is “Fractal” in nature. That means that it expresses itself in exactly the same way, but across a multitude of time frames. That is why I have put up different time frame charts a few weeks ago of the Dow Jones and the S&P in 30 minute bar charts.(U-Tube Video Gallery) This is just an expression of what is happening in that related time field as the synergistic effect is still always present. You will see the same expressions of timing and natural rhythm expressed across a multitude of time frames and that is just amazing to me. In the beginners section of my website, I have a few pictures of this symmetry as examples, that are found in nature. If you care to take a peek, just go to the heading “Beginners” and scroll down to see a few pictures of this. I am easily impressed, and I think this is just amazing, but that is me.
In my first trade today, I took profits to early and on my second trade or so, I should have closed out my second half before I gave it back for -1 tick. I did OK and came out on top, but came up short of my daily goal and was getting tired so I stopped. I new the market was going to get going in the afternoon session, but I burnt myself out already looking for movement where there was little.
Yesterday, I had only two trades, and hit it nicely, roughtly 2,3,4 points on one trade and just a small scalp for about a point on the next. Both days of trading are below.
That’s it for now, we will see if the market marks time by going sideways or pulls back, both will accomplish the pause we need for further advances.
This post is for Friday’s session July 9th and we did see a continuation in the uptrend very close to 1080 as called.
The cash S&P hit 1078 with the futures just behind it in Fridays session. After the close, the futures dropped, several points coming off its closing high, with that sell off continuing in the night trading Sunday night. On Friday, I was looking for a possible reversal coming off of 1080, but we never got there. It is possible that on Mondays session we might see that reversal. I will have my eye on that if we make at least one push up on the open which gets close to that 1080 number, + or – a couple of points. There is a little more room to move past that number, but I do see resistance coming in from a few directions and confirming with other markets.
We will have two trading sessions to make an impression on the bears before the Investment sentiment survey is again taken. Those numbers dropped 4% last week bringing us closer to a bullish signal. Currently at 37% with 35% needed to push things up a bit more than just a minor swing of a few days. These buy signals can last for several weeks. So, if such was going to happen, we would need to come back off these highs and make an impression on the bears that this latest bull move was just a fake and the real move is yet to begin.
If that is the case, it would coincide with the natural rhythm of this market and we could get a late 4th of July bang. That is not the popular belief out there and I say that with a little hesitancy, because everything looks awful out there. But earning season is just about to begin and we could see surprises, enough to move this market.
I again will say, that I am a big big long term Bear and think this market is going to tank, but just a fake like this would be a perfect recipe for taking out all of the shorts first. Make them suffer first, put the squeeze on them, shake them out, or how ever you would like to say it, but don’t make it easy for the shorts. If in-fact this market does this, it could set up a very nice move later in the year for another crash.
That is a mouthful, and should not get ahead of myself. One thing is for sure, if you know how to ride this market, you can clean up once the moves come back. Overall, the market has been acting pretty good, with moves in both direction and with size, except for Friday.
Friday was a very soft day of movement, especially the mid day. There was very little movement from 9 to 11 am West Coast on Friday. If you tried to trade that, you likely did not do well. I to often trade when I feel like trading and it cost me on Friday. I got myself caught in that trap and did see my first daily stop out in a long, long time. I did have my chances, but if I hit – 4 S&P points in any one single day, I am done and such was the case. I still did very good for the week with Thursday more than covering my losses on Friday as it was over 3 times my daily goal.
I will shoot for 2-4 points per session, with a bias for 4 points. My daily stop out point per session is -4 S&P points. A minimum 2-4 times per month, when the conditions are right, the market will just give you extra points. Those are the days that you have to make extra. You don’t actively seek it, the market will tell you when those days are and when it talks you listen. If you make extra points 2-4 times per month, if you have a day that you get stopped out, it is no big deal. You just get back on the horse and ride. It is best not to go looking for the big score every day. If you do that, you will be forcing the trades, not a good idea.
Trading is supposed to without * Effort , without * Force, without * Straining, without * Struggling and without * Trying. It should be effortless. Hard work is in the training and preparation, but while trading it should be without any of the above, but should be natural.
Compare a world class runner vs someone who rarely runs. To the one a 5 mile run is easy, while a one mile run to another is a great struggle.
Think about it. If you struggle and need and or want help, email me. To ask questions and get answers. You don’t have to be a member of Sniper Day Trading, I do want to help traders see “The Light”, so to speak, but if you need formal training, I have that very much available as well. Just a reminder, we teach all our students to read and understand “Price Action” with the trade indicators being extra.
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