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Big Trading Day on the Short Side

Thursday, May 17th, 2012

Today is Thursday, May 17th and I had a big trading day today which I was looking for. It was not without a little struggle but I hung in there especially on the last trade of the session as I covered my last after the 1 p.m west coast close for a 12 point S&P emini futures run.

I could not fit in the day with the smaller chart I usually show, so I elected to show a different chart all together. I don’t usually show my T-3 trade screen which is the biggest of the three layouts because I don’t often trade by its principals. I use it still every day, to help quickly identify the trend, but there are not very many trade signals that go off during the day and one has to be willing and able to sit through the pull backs which is not easy.

If you have and understand why and where prices are likely to move to, it helps to hold on for the bigger return. That does not happen by chance, but with use of probabilities. The higher the probability, the better the trade as it posses less risk when mixed with reward.

Let me post today’s chart and yesterdays chart which I did not post below;   First today’s chart;

Yesterday’s Trades;

Today’s last trade was good for 12 S&P points covering right at the bottom, in addition, I did have double the size I usually trade for a big trading day.

Tomorrow is Friday, the last day of the week and will look on the conservative side, as I know better than to get greedy and aggressive. Most traders biggest losses, come just before they had some of there best gains. I know that, and will look to play it safe waiting for good low risk scalps to ensure a positive end to a good week.

Until then good trading to all. Vince

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Big Overnight Move Long

Wednesday, April 11th, 2012

Today is April 11th, 2012 and I had a big overnight move carryover from yesterday with a 12 point S&P move at the top.

Not a lot of words here but will let the charts speak for itself for the last 3 trading sessions. I show a different view on one chart because I could not fit it all in and will give you some added insight into trading larger moves.

I have what I call my T-3 trade screen which is set up for bigger moves. You will see a zoomed in view of it which will show a lot less trades, but they will be for much larger gains. The risk is usually a little higher, but if you use the method in a way as I show in Monday’s chart, you can get in on a smaller risk basis and it can move into a bigger gain basis.

Again, there are notes on the screen to tell a little more and will just post them here below. Lastly, the indicators are not the method but they will be consistent with it. We trade a method that works and the indicators only confirm it. The best to you all. Vince

Today’s and yesterdays chart;

Monday’s trades and day;

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Trading Indicators only Reflect Price

Thursday, January 5th, 2012

Today is Thursday January 5th, 2011 and have a video of some of the first trades of the year. I did take a few trades on Tuesday and posted them on my previous blog post, but here we have two days of trading with some of the market turns traded and shown.

It is important to know that the trading indicators I show are only a small reflection of the trading method and do not make up the method itself. The price action is always first and will always be first and is the reason to learn and understand price as it relates to future movement.

We are starting a new trading year and with it are opportunities for those that see them. Every day is a new beginning for traders and that is how it should be looked at. Yesterday may have had trading lessons but the right approach is always moving forward from where you are today. Learn from the past, but do better today is a simple approach but a healthy one.

To many traders get stuck in what they did wrong yesterday and carry it over into what they are doing today. That can be a drag on your outlook and thus results. We all have the ability to “Choose” to make things better, better than it was in the past, but we need to get over the past, as not doing so will result in that mental drag mentioned above.

Choose to make this the best year of your life first, then choose to make this the best trading year of your life. The first one has to come first to allow the second one to become validated.

Taking action that will move you towards your goals is the first step. Think it out on paper, be realistic, and be sure not to get stuck in the dream state. Action is tied to a plan, is the way to start out the year and remember to exercise your mind because that is the “engine” that will take you there. Think about it.

I wish you all the best, Vince

P.S.  A screen shot of today’s trades in case you don’t have time to view the video above. This does not have the large move short I was looking for at the close of yesterday but does include the two nice moves I picked up in today’s session.

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Stock Market Still Showing Strength

Wednesday, December 7th, 2011

Today is December 7th, 2011 and the stock market is still showing strength. We closed at the highs of the day and that is a good sign. The other day I talked about market rotation and it appears that is going on. Tomorrow could be the day that we will know for sure.

A break above that wall of resistance I wrote about several posts ago seems to have been validated and with the last few sessions I see signs of that breaking to the upside. This again is not popular but I just call it as I see it, of which I could be wrong, so we shall see. If I am wrong I will admit it, there is no shame in being wrong as that is just part of the process.

Weeks ago, I did say the market would reach the 1308 area but we sold off first and made one of the fastest and largest turn around in history. Down 10% in 7 days and back up 10 % in 5 days.

In today’s trading, I did a U-Tube video because I traded a lot longer than I normally do. I hit over three times my average daily goal to put in a nice day. Since it covers a good portion of the day, I just elected to do a video showing the whole session.

As I always like to point out, the indicators are only a reflection of the method. The method is first and the trading indicators come along for the ride to confirm what is already happening and understood with the price action. This is the best way to learn how to trade. You need to know how to build price structure and what that means for the next likely move and targets.

You can’t always swing for the fences, you need to be able to read the price action and let it tell you where prices will go. I took 5 trades today with 4 profitable for small scalps of 1-2 points each and the last one good for 2+ points, 6 points and 9 points at the top. The loss was for 5 ticks or 1.25 points. OK, that’s it for today, the video below if you care to watch. Good Trading to all.

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Great Day Trade Call !

Wednesday, September 28th, 2011

Today is Wednesday, September 28th, 2011;  We saw a pull back in today’s market as was expected.

We now are in a position to really move. Tomorrow is Thursday and would expect a powerful move in tomorrows session and or at the latest Friday. I think the up move will continue as I wrote three trading sessions ago and will take many by surprise.

A confirmation of a continued move up will come in a break of yesterdays highs of 1190. I liked the market long from a closing basis on 9-23-11, three sessions ago, at S&P 1129. I mentioned then and continue to mention now that I think we will continue to see higher prices in the weeks to come. If we break S&P 1120 on a closing basis I will give that call up.

In today’s market I mapped out a move short, from 1172 to a target at 1144, a 28 S&P point move that I thought had a good chance of coming  to pass. I did enter at 1172 for the short but could only hold for 10 points of the move at its best point. You can see in the chart above the entry and exits.

I took three trades today with 2 positive and one small loss for a very good day. You can see the turning points as I usually show them, with good potential at other turns as well.

I have not been up for the open the last couple of weeks, but I have not missed anything that I could not get later in the sessions. Been doing very good lately, with the increased movement but even with days like yesterday, where it could have been hard to come out with such a small range, turned out nice. That is because, being able to read the price action in such a way as to let it tell me what it wants to do and listening, has validity to it.

Some days, it pays to scalp a point or two here and there, but it can also pay off to ride the moves if you can. Today, even though I could see the target at 1144 as per my trading method in a “trade to target”, but in a higher time frame, I was not able to hold for the full move. Scaling out on some, does make it easier, but it is still hard to hold for hours to a target, at least for me. It is a little outside my comfort zone, but it might not be like that for others.

At the end of the day, being up with as little pressure and stress, is the key. In trading for hours, I or any trader gives up something, “time and energy”.  It still takes energy to sit though a move even if you are comfortably profitable in it. How much energy can you expel and still be OK. So, it does take something out of you and again, may not be big deal for others. Just being able to do see it and do it in part is of value as I wrote to my group today. We are all still learning and no one has arrived in the trading world. Becoming a great trader takes work and dedication. Anything of value rarely comes easy.

The best to all, trade well and committed !

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Big Day Trading the S&P Emini’s

Tuesday, September 13th, 2011

I had a good day in the markets as I was looking at the long side of the market today as I mentioned yesterday. We were likely to have some follow through and was looking to 1176 as a possible high today, but it may still come in tomorrow session. The days highs came in at 1070.50 a little shy.

The night session is off right now, but that can all change by morning. Either way, it does not really matter which way the market goes. I do like to see and spot the bigger trending moves in the daily market as many follow that in stead of the micro moves of each day.

As day traders, we open and close all positions within the day and look to be profitable at the end of each day. We don’t need to take a ton of trades, but just a few will usually do the job just fine to pick up a modest daily goal. There are days that trading more is OK and today for me was just one of them. There were better price action days to trade, days and weeks past, but I was on vacation then and just getting back in the groove. Having a better than expected day now and then is good as it helps to round things out for any loosing sessions and keeps pace with overall expectations. The day ended up better than 3x my average daily goal of 2-4 point

Since I traded most of the session today, I can not fit in all the action so I have a larger sized chart but it does not match the entry signals that I usually show, so as not to confuse anyone, I just elected to take it off and show the basic bars with the trades taken.

Tomorrow morning the sentiment number I watch are coming out and that may give some insight into market direction and overall expectations in the daily market. Trading in the opposite of the dominent market wisdom has been a long established way to bet against the crowd.

Again, as day traders, it does not really matter what direction the market moves, but I do like to comment on it when it seems obvious. Currently it can go either way and will have to look both ways. I still think that 1176 number is possible in the short term but we will see tomorrow. I won’t be stuck on that number and lock myself in a narrow mindset so as not to see the price action in front of me, which is good advise to all who trade.

Think about it, read the current price and stay open minded and let the market tell you which way it is going to go. Try to predict it all in advance is not to wise, as you will not see the trades that are in front of you.  I know this is a big problem for many traders, don’t let that be you. Remain in control and trade your plan, what ever that is. Control your emotions and don’t over trade. What ever is your method, discipline yourself to stay on script.

Success, will come when you are able to control your urges to trade for the sake of trading or being in a move. Waiting is a trade, and many have forgotten that and or never thought about that. I will say that again. Waiting is a trade, and not trading is a position you need to get comfortable with. Those that can, will wait for the what is the easy and obvious entries and just pick up cash with little struggle.

Trading should not be a struggle. You don’t want to use your mind and emotions in a Beta State, but using the Alpha Brain State while trading, will get you much better trading results as you are exercising your ability to stay calm and rational. You will not overtrade in this state, as you are better likely to wait for the next signal that has the odds on side. If you take low percentage trades, you will not likely be mentally ready for the better high percentage trades that will show up. When they do, you will be either getting stopped out of the weaker position and miss the better opportunity and or just miss it all together with your preoccupation of the weaker trade position.

So much more to say here, I will try and continue it tomorrow. Until then, good trading.

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Big Profit Day in S&P and Link to Free Newsletter

Thursday, August 11th, 2011

Today’s market, we saw a move back up to yesterdays gap opening lower and that gap is now closed. The market just before the close ended up off its highs, but finished strong in relation to the days trading range. A good short term bullish sign, but more is needed. Yesterday, we put in what is called an “inside day” with the days trading range being confined to the previous sessions trading range. That was not to hard as that days range was nothing short of huge. A move back to around S&P 1140 from the current 1168 would not be an unusual move with a renewed second attempt to take out today’s highs later in tomorrows session. Tentatively, that is what I think we will see, but I am always open minded to the current market action.

I have racked up a ton of extra S&P points this week with the extra movement. I have been trying to not slug it out with the market and did a pretty good job up until today. I did not really start off that good and did not really take my own advise from yesterdays blog posting. I should have know, but I got a little lazy and sloppy. I will just leave it like that, as I made a few no method trades and had some larger stops tied to them. It could have turned out badly for me today if I got my last trade wrong, but not only that, I took a double position on that trade, something I don’t usually do.

I felt after getting beat up in the chop, which I should have waited for, I finally had it right and doubled up, very aggressive. I did finally see exactly where I thought the market was going to and did nail it with size to the tick for a +15 point trade, two ticks before the top I called at S&P 1165. That was a “trade to target” for me and pointed it out to my trading group as it progressed in multiple screen shots before and after. Let me post my trades, “the good, the bad and the ugly”.

I have been trying to avoid the overly active part of the session as I don’t want to get caught with slow response times like I mentioned in yesterdays posting. The end result today was excellent, in addition, I did have a good trade in the late night session, good for 3&5 points. Just before that, I closed a short for -3 ticks, so ended up with a solid +3 net points and could have counted for my session today. This was the biggest day I have had in long while, even with the previous stop outs, in part because of the double position. Several weeks of daily gains and on a long win streak.

I won’t be pushing it tomorrow as I just might take the day off. Today was a bit of a stressful day for me, and that is what I try and stay away from. Need to cool off a bit and take a step back. For others, it might be a time to press on and get aggessive. I can’t speak to that, as everyone is different. I do have some physical limitations and I do have to watch my stress levels, that is just being wise, as we all have to monitor where we are at for what we do.

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I am going to share a link with you today as it will shed some light on what is happening within the economy and a lot more. I will warn you, it is straight forward and it may be a bit shocking for some, so if you are not in the mood to get a dose of reality, don’t click on the link and keep on going.

www.theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly

The mans name is Bob Chapman and he writes “The International Forecaster” a business, finance, economics and social and political issues worldwide, which reaches 10,000 investors and brokers monthly directly, and parts of his publication are picked up by 60 different websites weekly exposing his ideas to over 10 million investors a week.

His credentials are amazing and you can read a short piece on him by clicking on his name to the left of his website. I only share this for those who want to know what is going on and why in relation to the above topic’s. I want to help my readers be prepared for what ever may happen in the months and years to come.

You can get a good portion of his twice a week newsletter Free, which is good and not that common these days. Again, it is straight forward and can be shocking for those who have not been exposed this kind of information, so that is my only disclaimer.

I wish all my readers the very best, Vince.

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Big Profit Day for the Bulls

Tuesday, June 21st, 2011

Today was a big day on Wall Street. We should see follow through to today’s rally as I wrote about in yesterdays blog. I first mentioned this rally was coming a few days ago, Friday’s session. We took a couple more days of a pause and yesterday made the second call for the move. I can see prices having another day like today to push price into the 1300 + area.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, the Fed will make an announcement of there intentions for interest rates. I would bet they will be untouched, but the wording by Bernanke will be of great importance to Wall Street. Usually, those announcements are at 11:15 am West Coast or 2:15 East Coast, so look for good movement in the morning and a slow down before the announcement and a pick up in activity after it.

The market is also watching the Greek debt situation as well. A renegotiation of there debt is what the street is looking for, but we will see. The market will price it all  in as it goes along.

In today’s trading, I felt pretty strong about the rally coming, so I positioned myself in the aftermarket to try and take advantage of it. My first attempt was not successful, with a 2 point stop out, but my second re-entry and the same price stuck. I was able to sell right near today’s high for a 15 S&P gain and a net 13 point gain for the day, very nice. A chart below with the corresponding turning points and secondary continuation points marked. The method is really completely separate from the indicators, but it all so consistent with it, even though it is unrelated. I teach how to read the price in a very unique way and the indicators are just extra.

Good Trading to all.

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Trading Recovery Day

Thursday, February 3rd, 2011

2-3-11;

Today was a recovery day from yesterday, which was not really a big loss, but no gains were made. So today I did make that up. I did take on more risk than I am used to, with a bigger stop on one trade and larger size. I was still ahead for the session when that happened, so it was not coming from a position of a draw down.

The market sentiment numbers came out for stock market direction and the percentage of bulls dropped while the market has been rising steadily, currently 52% are bullish; (55% or more is a bearish reading).  We were above the 55% area for about 10 weeks with only higher stock prices to follow. This tells me something is wrong somewhere. The sentiment gauge is not in sync for the last two and half months. Many think, it is because the Fed has increased the money supply, and it has big time. That money is finding its way into the markets from a variety of institutions.  It is defying logic with looming issues that could rattle the core of our country.

I would like to share a web site that I have been following recently, as I have found much of the information very accurate and informative. I would recommend it to those who want to keep abreast on inflation and the general state of our economy. The site is called “The National Inflation association” and their web site is www.inflation.us

The information in the sight might give you some insight on what is happening and what is coming. For those of you who are loyal readers, you may want to check this out for no other reason than to protect your wealth and be informed.

It is nice to be positive and think that way, but the reality is, we all live in the real world and not knowing what is happening is not going to help anyone. So, get informed, see what other well educated people are saying about the economy and near term future. I would add, do not worry, as that is not going to add one day to your life. Enjoy each day, but do not worry and do not live in fear. I look above for my stability and peace, for those whom it may apply, I encourage you to do the same.

Good Trading – Vince

Today’s Trades Taken

Yesterday’s Equity Chart of Trades Taken below

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Nice Profit Day, Even with a Few Mistakes

Thursday, August 12th, 2010

Today is Thursday, August 12th and the market was down today to hit that low side target called in last Fridays post.

I said last Friday that we would trade down to maximum 1075 to 1080 on the S&P and today we hit 1071. The market did trade past the mental target I had, but it came back quickly which is important. That shows that the market is likely to have found a short term bottom at least. Currently the market is trading up off its close for the session and looks good for tomorrow to be an up day.

With tonight’s aftermarket  break long of 1083 on the Emini Futures, we will likely see 1097 to 1104 either in tomorrows session or Mondays. The natural rhythm of the market should swing the balance of power back up to this level.

The market sentiment for this week saw the bullish side move up 3 percent to 41% and change, getting closer to a neutral standard setting. This rally here is what it is all about, if this rally fails the market is in trouble. We will need to stay above today’s lows. Again, if that gets taken out, I can not see how that is going to good for bulls, as heavy selling will come in for sure. Being objective and just reading the charts, that is how I see it. So lets hope for a big bounce first and a powerful push higher from here. If this rally looks and acts weak, that will be a sign of trouble. I believe, we should see heavy buying up to the numbers stated above and a very strong market to that point, after that, we will have to see.

The bearish camp dropped down to 27.5% and represents a 6% drop from last week. That is not good for the bulls. More people are getting bullish and less people are getting bearish. When you get a minority position, marked by certain levels, you will see a swing in the opposite direction.

One thing I believe for sure is that we will see an uptick in volume and movement. Even though this is summer and usually slow, I think you will see nice swing trades coming.

Below is today’s trades. The first shot is for this mornings trades and the second one is for the afternoon session. I did a video of the whole day and show all the turns with a little commentary. You can find it in the Video Gallery and should be the last one in line.      Good Trading, Vince

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