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Free Report – Massive Economic Shift in 2012

Tuesday, April 5th, 2011

Today is Tuesday, April 5th 2011 and we saw the Dow and S&P make new highs in today’s session only to fall back in the last couple of hours. The Dow was leading the way, then came the S&P index. After a slight new high, the cracks started  to show up just before 1 p.m. New York. Pretty much straight down from there, as we ended up inside the middle of the days trading range.

I have not posted for the past few sessions as some may have noticed. I have been sick and still trying to keep up with obligations, a bit of a tall task. I was still able to trade, as this cold I have has been lingering which would have meant no trading for over a week. I took my chances and have been doing about the same as when not sick, which is good. Many times my patients and judgment can get the better of me, which does remind me, I did take a few very bad trades that came out of nowhere. I have the last three days below for those who want to see and will continue with something I started to talk about last week that I did not finish.          Today’s trades here on top.

Monday’s Trades below;

Friday’s Trades below;

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Now that that is done, I would like to continue with where I left off, which I will now have to remember. I was talking about “Age Demographic’s” and how that effects the direction of the Stock Market, the economy and will bring on a “massive economic shift in 2012″.

This is something I read in 2004 and was impressed with, so I saved it. I never forgot the power of this information and what it means for the future. The information stated that for the next 8 years we would see growth and an expanding economy, but that was going to change in a big way in 2012, as a major age demographic’s shift was going to take place.

The purchasing power of the 45 to 54 year old’s drives the economy and markets. It has been this way graphed and recorded since 1920 and likely to continue its track record. I am looking at a graph of the age group as people move into it and out of it, a net change is recorded and graphed. That change is almost totally identical to the economy and stock market.

So, what happens in 2012?  If you don’t want to know, stop reading here and go do something else, because it is not pretty. Last chance…………  going, going,  OK;   here it is.

We are looking at an unprecedented drop like we have never seen before and it lasts a long time. The age demographic shift does not turn back up until 2025 and posts 13 negative years of stock market growth. WOW. That sounds like the end and it could be financially for some who have been trained into buy and hold. There is a lot more in this article, 4 pages of details backed up with data points and a historical track record going back to 1920. It is impressive, that is why I saved it back then and reporting about it here today 7 years later, as it becomes more relevant with 2012 looming.

These facts don’t take into account anything else other than age demographic’s. With the current situation as the country is in, bulging deficits and overall debit in all categories, across the board, fed, state, local, business, private, and so on, what is it going to look like as this things get rolling along.

Currently, the government has said it may have to shut down this Friday April 8th with no budget agreed on in Washington. Stuff like this is only gong to intensify all of which has nothing to do with the shift, but will only exacerbate it. This time I think there is better than a 50% chance that it will.

I told you above, you could have stopped reading. I wasn’t kidding. This kind of thing can become scary, but I would say, don’t let your fear take over. How are you going to capitalize on it and come out ahead of the game. There are things you can do to protect your wealth and you should start looking into it. Paper money, is going to be inflated and since the the debt issue is so huge, they don’t want to raise rates like they did back in the early eighties. That brought Gold and Silver off there perch. This time, they can hardly raise rates or want to, for various reasons.

The obvious is the borrow rates would go up and thus their true cost for servicing the debt. This is an indirect way of taking money right out of the peoples pockets.  It has been said, by some reliable sources that  70% of the bond market auction is bought up by the Fed. This is the Quantitative easing that they said would help keep rates low and stimulate the economy. It is going to do a lot more than that. Investors are loosing faith in the process and just staying away.

So much more I could say, but the last thing I will say is, if you want me to email you this 4 page report, I will. You will find it a very interesting read and it may help motivate you to do something about it, which is a good thing how ever you look at it. This shift is not going to go away, and it is not different this time. The baby boomers are retiring in massive numbers to boot. Well, if you would like me to send you the report, I will. I won’t be hounding you about signing up for anything, but if you have questions, I would be glad to answer what I can.

The last question I have you.  Will you be ready for this “massive economic shift in 2012″?  If you not, it is coming, ready or not.

Best to all my readers, Vince

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Age Demographic’s Drives Economy Part 1

Wednesday, March 30th, 2011

Today is Wednesday March 30th and we continued to see the major market Index’s move higher as it soon approaches its previous highs.

It is likely that we will soon see a double top in the S&P 500 at 1335 at a minimum. This market is being driven, but by what? Some would call it money creation, but who wants to spoil the party. Well, it won’t last forever, that is for sure. The economy has so many problems brewing in it, its not even funny.

Let me share something, the economy is being driven by the purchasing power of the people in 45-54 age group. Those people will be pouring out of that demographic group that again drives our economy faster that than any time in the century during the years 2011 2012.

If you go back through history, you can see this. This group will not be buying cars, boats, traveling, etc, as they will be more focused on retirement and their big ticket item purchases will be a thing of the past.

With that said, this will have a direct effect on the economy and stock market for 13 years as that is when the demographic’s for that age group turn back  up. There is a direct correlation and can be charted year over year for the past 90 years and you can see just how accurate this gauge is. Amazing, is all I can say. I will talk more about this during this week and the week end as I have a report written 7 years ago that has so far come to pass prophetically, with the next chapter about to begin.

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I did not post yesterday but I have yesterday and today’s trades below. Let me post them first. Today’s trades first

Tuesday’s trades below

The market has been very slow lately. Hard to figure for this early in the year, but you have to trade what you have before you or step aside. Trading is not easy but let me say, it can be simple. If you know what to do, the rest lies on us. We either perform in a way that can book gains, or we don’t.

The reason for falling short, again falls on our shoulders. The first key is being grounded in a solid trading method that you can build on over time. One that never gets old or stale, but one that is always relevent and tradable day in, day out and so on. One that is price action related and not indicator based.

If you have a good trading method, then work on yourself to follow through with it and build your niche. If you don’t have one, then you need to write one that works. If you either can’t or don’t have the time, then you need to search for something that fits you and your objectives.

The good part about this method is, it defenitely can be taylored for the individual. All traders are different and there is no one size fits all. Tayloring time frames, profit objectives, using profit target, scaling in, scaling out, adding to wining positions and the like are key.

That’s it for today, but more to come on what I wrote about at the top of today’s blog, so stay tuned. Good Trading to all

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After Hours Market Sell off under way, Nikkei down 14%

Monday, March 14th, 2011

Today is Monday March 14th, 2011 and in tonight’s aftermarket trading, the S&P is off, -36 points at its lowest levels this evening. The spark was likely that the Nikkei Index from Japan was off 14% in just the single session from Tuesdays market. I think the session is still trading, but what a crash. In fact Mondays session in Japan saw major losses as well.

Let us all hope and pray for the best for all those that this tragedy has effected and or will effect.

On Wall Street today, the S&P was down about 12 points and the Dow only down about 50 points. For every one point in the S&P it usually equals 10 Dow Jones points, so the Dow under performed on the downside, by not dropping as much as the S&P.

The Daily market momentum is down, with the hourly being the same. The night session is down substancially and this is likely the catalyst for getting this market to slow down. It has been all one way as far as the daily and the weekly charts are concerned.

I would be looking for a very big increase in market volatility with execellent trading opportunities coming in the days and weeks ahead. With this kind of break and the news that is likely driving it, uncertainty is growing and with it the volatility will follow.  The price swings will create opportunities, so for those who have good entry methods that do not overly expose them to market risk.  Good low risk entry methods, take the downside risk away by precision timing on your buy and sell orders.

In my trading today, I did good overall, racking up several points on the S&P. I tried to build on a nice position adding on contracts for a move I saw coming and it did work out, but it could have been better. One tick separated me from big gains. Modest gains are just as good, as I always have tomorrow for more. A U-Tube video of the days turning points and continuation points as show in the video. I haven’t done that many video’s lately, but will try and do more of them as time allows. Good trading to all.

P.S.  I did not post on Friday, but will post my chart of the days trades below the video.

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Futures Roll Over Day Tomorrow

Thursday, March 10th, 2011

3-11-11;  Tomorrow, Friday March 11th will be the best day to move your chart forward to the June contract as it is futures roll over day.  The letter “M” will replace “H”.  For those who trade the S&P 500 emini futures, the symbol will be   esm11 ; from the current esh11.  The old contract will still trade through next Friday, but the volume will start to decline every day starting tomorrow, going through next Friday until it expires.

In yesterdays trading, just took one trade for the day, but it was a good one. That was all I needed to average a few points on the day. They were 1 point , 1.50 points , and 5 points for the last portion, scaling out right at the top. I gave myself a trading grade of “A”.  It was maybe a little easier since it was only the one trade, but that was fine with me.

In today’s trading, pretty similar in that I had a big gain while I scaled out at the top of that range. The market did go a touch higher after a pull back, but after I picked up 4.50, 3.00 , and 6.50 points with a add on trade also for 1.50 points. I had a loss on my first trade, but finished up with a small gain on my last trade for 1.00 and 1.50 points.

I only gave myself a grade of “B” today as my first trade, I tried to anticipate the bottom, with no evidence for doing so. The second trade was also early, but it was better positioned to move up unobstructed after my entry. The charts below. The first one is yesterday’s (Wednesday), the second one is Today’s (Thursday)

In today’s markets, we saw oil pull back about $1.75 a barrel as tomorrow, Friday, the people in the S.Arabia are planing to demonstrate. Some are calling for a big escalation which could send oil prices rising sharply. That can not be a good thing for the markets, as with today’s drop, we saw a break down sending the S&P to 1294, -21 points for the session.  There is some support there, but it is hard to say, it will hold. In fact, it is likely it will not and give way to a much bigger pull back. Oil will have a lot to say about that, so we will have to just wait and see.

There was other news out today that was not favorable to the markets. First time jobless claims rise, Spain gets reminded how bad its debt rating is, U.S. posts record monthly budget deficit and more. That is not good stuff, but all of it gets factored into the price at that moment. The price tells all and if you know how to read the price, following the news does not really matter. I am aware of the 7 a.m. time period, as that is when news does get released certain days and it does impact the market.

I don’t always make the early morning open, so I miss a lot of these news release market moves,  like all of this week. Last week I was doing good, getting up early and catching the volume moves, that is so nice. If I wait to long, I get bumped into the New York lunch time and volume drys up and so does the movement, most often.

So, I will end it for now. Lots to watch tomorrow, it could be a very big day in the markets as the volatility will be increasing. Already, I have seen larger point moves in my trading, because the market is moving. Get it while its moving and shorten up your targets when it is range bound or listless.

Don’t forget, tomorrow is futures roll over day, the best day to change your contract month. The same is true for the Dow emini, the Nasdaq emini, the Russell emini, all being changed with the letter “M” for the new month June, 2011.

Good Trading to all !

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Another Day of Solid Day Trading Gains

Thursday, February 24th, 2011

2-24-11;

Today we saw a market that was looking to bottom and searching for a rally. It came late in the session as the Crude Oil market started to back off heavily giving a bit of relief to that markets upside pressure. As oil came off, stocks rallied.

The crude oil market is about to come alive. It may not be in a straight line, but we will see 150-200 oil in the next 6-12 months. It is going to be crazy as the middle east is not going to quiet down any time soon. Things are happening there that have not happened before, like Iran sending navel ships across the Suez Canal. That has not happened before since the 1970’s.  Israel is not happy about it and put its military on high alert.

This is the kind of stuff that will stoke the fire for higher oil prices. Any kind of incident and we will see flurries of panic buying. If you have not noticed, commodity prices have been going through the roof. People are looking for tangible assets to hedge against inflation. It does not matter what reports say what, as far as inflation, because it is much higher than reported. If you noticed Silver is at a 30 year high and is expected to continue to perform well for the rest of the year. It may be a bit extended right now, but I would bet that you just need a little time to pass for the metal to get into position and move higher.

We should see $ 45 dollars at a minimum on Silver sometime this year if not a lot more. The ratio between Gold and Silver is narrowing and currently at a 46:1 ratio.  You can expect that to continue to drop as the metal continues to outperform.

If anyone is looking for a hedge against inflation, Silver is where it is at, but that is just my opinion and not investment advise.

I will give you a very interesting search term to put into Google. You may find some interesting articles for your weekend reading.  I can’t or won’t say I agree with everything you may find, but it is something to be aware of. So, here is the search term, ” 500 dollar Silver ” .   You don’t need the brackets, but this will give you a quick list of articles and some interesting info on JPMorgan, that you may find, lets just say, interesting.

So, back to the markets. Today, the S&P emini was looking to find a bottom as I mentioned earlier and it found one, around 11 a.m. West Coast. The next two hours we saw a nice market rally. I personally didn’t see any of it, as I had logged off long before.

In my trading today, I picked up several points once again coming in with +1 point, +1 point, averaged 1.25 for the next and a small contract size loss on the last that was equalized with a small gain first.  The trades are below.


Both of the first trades had much more behind them, but I was not complaining. My minimum daily goal is 2 points with 4 points the preferable daily target. I have been usually hitting somewhere in between over the last few weeks straight without a losing day for some time.

By hitting a +1 point trade first out, in my mind, I think of only needing one more little trade of the same to hit the minimum. This is a good mindset for me. I remember a time not that long ago, that I was to often getting my first trade as a loss and having to come back. I did not like it. There was more struggle then there needed to be. Going for what I know I can get is just fine. One day, when I am trading 30 contract, one point will be a nice fast $ 1500 dollars. Put another one behind it and you have 3K for the day in just two little one point trades. What is wrong with that. There will come a day and feel it won’t be to long from now. I will be graduating those contract increases, so if I can’t earn the right to trade that size, I sure as heck won’t be.

So, not complaining is where this was going. Don’t do it. It can create anxiety and you will invariably make mistakes.

That is one thing we need to remember. Don’t complain to yourself about the should of, could of, would of. Its OK to point it out, but don’t take it any farther than that. If you second guess yourself about staying in a trade longer, because after its past, you see what you could have had, you will only set yourself up for a spanking later on. You will invariably overstay your welcome on some other future trade or trades and give it all back.

These are the kind of things that most people have to experience for themselves to ever learn. Unfortunately it is often the hard way, of learning that is. If we could only learn that ahead of time before we have to pay the price for our greed, then we could often times have a much easier time at this venture.

“Trading Greed”, is an interesting emotion. It is one of two emotions that all too often wreck havoc with day traders. You can guess what the other one is, I know you know it !   Trading Fear.  Those two emotions need more room than what I have here to write about. I have written about them before and it is a very important obstacle to get over.  If I start early enough in my post, I could include some interesting insight into these two trading emotions, but it will have to wait for now.

We have one more day before the weekend, I will try and make it count. I don’t want to even think about racking up a bunch more trades and points. If it comes it comes. I will not be seeking after it. That is how you will get your points for the day. Slow and steady with an occasional windfall. We just don’t know when that will be.

Good Trading to all, Vince !

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Markets Rally to Previous Highs

Thursday, December 2nd, 2010

Today is Thursday, December 2nd and we saw two days of big gains across the board to bring the market back very close to its previous high before the Thanksgiving holiday.

I am glad to see it, as well as the rising retail sales that are said to be very good, but am optimistically cautious. The market will not rally to long here as the investor sentiment is still to high for an extended run. Their are to many people expecting the market to continue its long rally at this point which will cause problems. Had the sentiment stayed under control, we could have move higher after my short term target of 1220 was hit, but that has put a damper on things.

I mentioned last week that we could retest the highs but thought that any rally would be short lived. I did a U-Tube Video a couple of days ago (Monday) and pointed out their,  that we were in a position to rally back up to around 1210 and possibly to the old highs of 1222. It took an extra day of consolidation, but the short term rally did come and here we are. Over all, a large drop can come in at any time. With the news being so volatile, anything can happen now, because of the overwhelming bullish bias. We know the masses are rarely right and if so, not for long, as the market has not dropped as of yet, we are building the pressure needed to do just that. So, be careful long term.

I have not been trading the last week and half of so, but did take a few trades here and there, but nothing to big. I will likely either start up tomorrow or Monday and expect the action to be pretty good for at least two weeks as we get closer to Christmas. I would love to see this market hold up, even though I am predominantly bearish in the daily’s.  I will try and show some of the low risk market entries on the S&P emini futures  for a weekend post and if I trade tomorrow those too. So until then, good trading, Vince.

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Traders watching Election and Federal Reserve Wednesday

Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010

Today is Tuesday November 2, 2010 and the two things on traders mind right now Tuesday evening, the Election and the Fed.

Both of the above will soon be revealed and both will express onto the market their feelings. Their is plenty of stored energy in the market right now as we will soon see. Which way will it go, well, anyone following me for any length of time knows I am still bullish on the market until we break on a closing basis, 11,000 on the Dow and 1170 on the S&P. I think both of those will hold for now as the surprise will likely be to the upside, again. I know many trader and investors are thinking that this market has to go down, because of this or that, I say “why”.  It will go down when it does and not before. I sounds like a funny answer, but it is the only one we know for sure. In trading we can only go on “If ” statements. If this, then that. Until a change becomes established, you have to stay with what is and that is UP.

A few days ago I laid out all the reasons why we will likely move higher and all of those are and still remain in effect. Yesterdays blog, I said that we would retest the 1193 highs and we did that today to the exact tick and again backed off. Not a surprise, by any means. Traders are waiting for information and we will be getting it by tomorrow. Then all of the stored energy that we have seen building up, will be released back onto the market as I mentioned above. That energy is real and it has an real expression that will have wave after wave of movement tied to it. Those that are on the wrong side of the market will have no choice but make adjustments to their previous established position. That adjustment will also add to their pain.

I have been looking for S&P 1220 since the bottom of this move back in late August early September and so far so good. It may only be a week or two until we see it, but a closing break of 1193 is the first thing that has to happen before the later.

Today we had another gap open higher and it looked like for many traders we would see a repeat of about the last 9 sessions of gap after gap after gap filled within the session or the morning after. For that to make it to number 10 or so, we would have to drop down to S&P 1183 and we are currently at 1193 in the after market. I said for yesterdays market, “we were likely to gap open higher and this time we may not come back”.  I may have been a day early on that one if we move out higher in tomorrow session and don’t come back. It is looking like it is in position to do just that, but we will see.

In today’s trading, I started later than I wanted to and saw the market action was very slow. In the waiting and anticipation of news events, I could see movement was going to be slow and shallow, so just elected to nibble at a few bites size pieces to make up a few points. Took 5 trades, all gains, but all small. Still, they add up just the same, except for a touch more commission costs. All trades for today are below.

Trade what you know and leave the rest, Good Trading to all. Vince

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Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision 6-23-10

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

Today is Tuesday, June 22nd and the market is acting right in line with my previous reversal call.

On Sunday afternoon, my post that day called for a reversal once the target area was reached as it was in Mondays market, exactly as called. In that Sunday post, I said that we were going to the target area and would see a reversal day with the next move back down to the 1080 area at a minimum. It could go farther, but we should see those prices very shortly. Today’s market we were off -147 on the Dow and -20 points on the S&P emini futures at 1090.

We are on our way to another good market call of +50 S&P points, right behind the +50 point call I had days before. It is a good feeling to able to see and call out market direction.

With today’s and yesterdays action, I would be thinking that this move down may push the sentiment numbers to the downside, kicking in a buy signal at 35% or lower. If we get it, I will report it here as soon as it comes in. Currently we stand at 37% and very close to a strong buy if those numbers come in.

These numbers are the Investment newsletter writers opinion on market direction. They work in the exact opposite way you would think. If only 35% or less of these newsletter writers believe that the market is going to go up, a minority position, then it will go against them and there call. This leaves a lot of skepticism, fear and anxiety, just what you need for the market to advance. The majority is never usually right.

So, look for a move tomorrow  into the 1080 area or better. I could see the market moving short early in the session and holding as the Federal Reserve will be posting there interest rate decision around 11:15 West Coast or 2:15 New York time.  The Federal Reserve interest rate decisions have not been as big a deal over the last few months, but I have a feeling that this one will bring in much more volume and movement then we have seen recently. It will be a big day tomorrow and I would exercise caution for all traders.

Many traders take this day off as the emotions will be running wild for sure. Today’s S&P trades below. I also have a U-Tube Video of my first trades which can be accessed in the top right corner of this website under “Video Gallery” if you care to watch. Good Trading and be safe.

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Unemployment Numbers to be released Friday

Thursday, June 3rd, 2010

Today is Thursday and general market was up slightly with a strong finish into the close.

The S&P, Dow and NASDAQ markets were all up slightly at the close with a strong come back from earlier session losses. I believe there are unemployment numbers coming out tomorrow and it is expected to be an important figure which will propel the market big one way or another.

I did not hear the speech, but someone said that the President was speaking and made a comment about great unemployment results to come. He seemed to be upbeat about the news tomorrow. Well, let me remind you of a time that he addressed the markets before. It was two days before we hit the S&P 500 low of 666 on March 6th or 3/6.

The point is, two days before the market hit that bottom. I did hear a speech by the President that was so very upbeat and encouraging. He basically said, the stock market is a great buy, but not in those words. I had never remembered a previous president doing that, but it may have happened. Again, back to the point. Two days after that speech, the stock market shot up over 400 hundred points on the Dow and it has not looked back since.

Now, I had heard of a very upbeat speech that was given today about unemployment and that you can expect this and that. Well, he seems to have pretty good timing in the past, is he going to go two for two, maybe ?

The market is in a position to rally, but there is one thing I would have liked to have seen today that did not happen. I was hoping for lower numbers on the bullish sentiment that was released this week. It came in basically the same, around 39% bullish. That is not really good enough to get the call the I was looking for, but that does not mean we can not rally. Many times the numbers will push back and forth in the middle as a fight is taken place between the bulls and bears. Its just that when you get extremes, we often see bigger more predictable moves. OK, enough on that.

In today’s trading, I was trading very small, just 1-2 contracts. I was coming off a few days of very big gains and moved my contract size down to insulate myself. It did not change anything, as I still traded well and hit more than my daily goal. I probably traded for about 8 S&P points of total profit. Much more than the 2-4 points I shoot for on just a regular day.

There are times through out the week and month that I have been pushing it and I have done very well. I usually don’t like to trade for a long time. I know that it is often times best to get in and get out. If you have good profit for the day, book it. Go do something else or enjoy some of the freedom that trading offers you. Many traders will say, that they like the idea of being a trader, because it will afford them more time freedom. That can be true but only if you exercise it. Taking time away from the markets can give you a fresh perspective. If you trade all day, every day, you will get tired and burned out which can produce mistakes. You need to be fresh and on high alert. It is to easy to place trades out of boredom as the action slows down, so be careful of that.

As I say that, there is a place and time for study. It is important to get screen time in if you are new to trading. It has been said, that good trading is more like an art. That can be true, but you can learn this art or trading by exposing yourself to market data. I feel, every serious trader needs to keep learning and one way to do that is, by looking at past data and becoming exposed to different setups, reads, looks and situations. You can still do this while the markets are closed as you go over past data. There is a value to it, even if some think not.

Seeing how the market reacts in certain price action setups is important. You need to put your mind inside the price and feel the moves and try and experience what other traders may have been feeling for them to push the market up or down as you see it unfold. Again, this is past data and it does help. Looking now at live data is different, but if you remember what setups you seen that worked out before, you will over time, be able to identify them as live data unfolds or that is what you need to strive for. History repeats itself and that sure is true in the trading markets. Find the history of the past and apply it to the future. You will be glad you did as that is what will turn out a winning day, week, month and year.

Good Trading to all

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Market Reacts to Bad News with Sell Off

Tuesday, April 27th, 2010

Today is Tuesday, April 27th and the market took a dive today.

What a ride on Wall Street. Apparently, the downgrade of Greece and Portugal’s debt caused the Street to get a little nervous. This is what happens when the market is ready to retrace. People will look for an excuse to sell, but to them its a good excuse, PROFIT.  The market has had an uninterrupted move for the most part since early last year, coming off the bottom.  I would call it close to a “V” bottom for the most part. With such a deep initial retracement from 18 month ago.

Today the market sentiment numbers are taken and will be released for tomorrow. With this sell off, it may have spooked some to back off on there exuberance, but I won’t know until Thursday evening. Market Harmonic’s will post the numbers for free each week on there website. I find it as a very good tool in picking market tops and bottoms on the daily charts for extended moves.

As a daytrader, it may help a little, but overall you need to have good timing with little tolerance for large losses to do well. In order to achieve that, you need to know what you are doing. You will not get consistent results by accident, but keep learning.

I am just getting my site back up and still have work to do, to reconstruct a few things I lost, so it may be a day or so before I get back into the swing of things. On that note, I wish everyone the best.

Vince

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