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Now Working on New Contract Month

Monday, March 12th, 2012

Today is Monday March 12th, 2012 and the markets are holding and challenging new highs as we speak in the after market. The S&P emini’s are seeing a rally that started right at or near the close and is taking the average higher. If things we to open up as they are, we would see about a 100 point Dow surge as the S&P is up around 10 points.

There may be news out this evening as I write, but I am sure we will see what is going on tomorrow. As time moves on, there does allow more room in the averages to move higher, but the gains at this point will be tempered somewhat, if they happen.

We are working on a new contract month for the S&P and the eminis in general. The contract month changes the third week of March, June, September and December. The current month for the S&P futures is ESM12 .

The volume will usually really die off as you get into the last week, which is the third week of the month for the Quarters mentioned. One really needs to switch trading onto the new contract month before the volume slows to a crawl. Usually that takes place mid week prior to the last week which in the third week of that month as already decribed.  I hope that helps some to keep track of these changing times and contract months.

From the looks of it, this last week saw some very weak price action. The moves were short lived and it would appear that there could be some market support coming in from interested parties. New highs of significance coming in during the night session is a lot easier to give the market a bias on the open if someone had that in mind.

I won’t go any further than that, but there is a lot of talk that the markets are being manipulated. That is not anything new, but during times of low volume, it is a lot easier to create a directional bias in one direction or another.

Still the signs are all still their and does not change the way one could read and interpret the market to take advantage of high probability moves.

The markets are always changing in some form or another, but we need also to change with them. That does not mean changing your trading method, but adjusting to market behavior so you can still bring in some desired points.

Again, going back over the week, I saw a lot of low volume and limited movement. That tells me to adjust to the new environment until the volatility picks up.

With that said, today I had just one trade and started late as I usually do, with day light savings not helping. It netted me a -1 tick loss in the S&P emini and that is all I wanted to partake, as I come back after last week. There is no hurry and I will see how things look for tomorrow and we can go from their. Today’s trade below.

P.S.  I will pick up with my last post sometime this week as I was talking about “Trader Self Talk” and how that can help one’s overall performance.

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Stock Market Buying Little Time

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

Today is 1-23-12 and it would appear that the market is buying little time since last weeks anemic performance. The volume has been very slow and the movement has been limited. This is not a very exiting market at the moment, but it will or should change. Looking back so far, the market only moved about 3 points on a closing basis over the 1308 target level I mentioned last week. We did not get the reversal I was looking for last week in the daily market, but we have not moved far off that level either. Today, there was a bit of a reversal that took place but am hoping for the market to hold up at least one more trading day through tomorrow session. This may help push the bullish market sentiment over the edge, thus setting up a good healthy market drop, just the opposite. Last week there was a pause in that arena and will be looking ahead for insight

Last week, I got a little sloppy and careless and had a couple of back to back losing sessions. That is a sign that I am not in sync with the markets and time for a break.  I stepped back and did not do a thing. Time has a way of changing things if you let it. When you are not doing well for what ever reason, that is not the time to force your trades, or go for the get even mentality which most often leads to more difficulties.

Taking a step back is never in my mind a bad idea. The markets will always be there, but you need to make sure that you are there to start up again. Being aggressive has its place, but it is rarely when you are not trading well.

Above are the trades I took today. I needed more room to fit it in so I am showing the second chart that fits together with the one chart that I usually show. The two charts fit together and act as one chart, not two, but this is the larger view of the two. I rarely ever show this second chart but elected to today. There is a series of charts that are smaller and a series of charts that are larger on different screens. Each of the screens are for different conditions and objectives. They all still fit together and can be used to gain perspective or trade with larger or smaller targets in mind.

It is all price action driven with the trading indicators confirming the method, not the other way around. That is different and unique when compared to others who will generally fit a method around trading tools. Every trader needs a solid understanding of how the price flow works, as the market will take you up only to take you down and if you don’t know how to read it, you will get frustrated and constantly second guess yourself. That is no way to trade these markets as professionals feed off of this kind of uncontrolled behavior. Don’t let yourself be taken down, empower yourself with a working knowledge and the trading edge. It does not have to come from me, as this is my own approach that combines low risk with good reward.

In today’s trading, I took three trades all profitable for good modest gains. I could have had more and made a few notes on the screen above, but I will never complain over a good clean day. I would only say that I saw a little late the likely path of price short on my first entry and wanted to be sure that I booked a gain on my first trade out. Again, all OK. I just had to wait out the rest of the moves and really exercised some patients to let this market play out a bit.

OK, that is it, until next time- good trading to all.  Vince

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Price Rejection in S&P E-Mini

Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

Today is January 18th 2012 and will be looking for “price rejection in S&P E-Mini in tomorrow’s action. It’s important to remain open minded still looking both ways during intra-day trading, but we could start to see cracks showing up.

Monday was a Holiday and so put us back one day into Wednesday being some form of a top in this market for the time being. This is only my opinion and I could be wrong, but Friday I posted that Wednesday would be the likely day we would see a top for the time being in this market.

We had one thing that did not happen, but many things that did take place in the price action leading up to this resistance area. Back in mid November I wrote on my chart the number 1308 and talked about that a few times since then. I can see in this evenings night session that we hit 1307.50 and pulled back down to 1302 where we ended in today’s session. The 1308 is very likely the intra day high for a 20% move in the index’s since the early October low’s of which I was very Bullish.

I won’t get to caught up in calling this market, but do think we will see lower prices coming going forward.

I have been a little preoccupied the last couple of days as it relates to my own trading and had two days of back to back losses. They were small losses of just a few S&P points, but felt no need to push it. Today, I did try and double up on size to make up for yesterday, which is not really a good idea, and the reason I cut today off short since I did not start off well. I have not had back to back losses in as far back as I can remember, but it can happen and that is part of trading. I did not want ego to get in the way and try and push it through to recapture a positive day when I was just not feeling up to it.

I have been starting the sessions to late, close to the N.Y. lunch and getting caught in the chop, both days. The early session had very good moves but slowed up as I came on. Usually that does not matter, but I just did not have it, especially starting off with losses.

The first trade of the day is actually very important and I am rushing into it to quickly, without doing proper analysis, again, all my own fault.

I will post my trades for the last two session below and wrap it up. I wish you all the best.

Today’s trades;

Tuesday’s Trades;

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Trading Knowledge is Power When Used

Thursday, October 13th, 2011

Today is Tuesday October 13th, 2011;  The S&P was flat today and Dow down slightly, holding onto all of its recent gains so far.

A short term target on the upside would be around the 1245/1250 area in the S&P, at the same time there is room in the market to fall back if it wants to and still be OK with the large picture move underway. This is still a reaction to the overall drop of the last few months and working its way back to the middle. If we do see the upper range as mentioned in the days to come, there we will almost certainly see strong resistance and some kind of meaningful pull back. How the market handles that area will say a lot as to how far we go.

Given the high degree of bearishness and the very small amount of bullishness, I would at this time mention the next level as a possible even higher target. That would be S&P 1320.  That number can not be ruled out and will be the next major area of resistance if the 1250 number gets taken out and I expect it, but that is my opinion only.

In today’s trading, I took two trades, as that was all I needed to hit my daily goal. No struggle, just taking the method trades as they came. The chart of day is below.

The day was a bit choppy early on, but with some OK moves available as marked. I would not say I would take all the trades marked, as some are better than others, but like to do this daily exercise to show you how things do line up and how the indicators can lend some insight into the next moves. Understanding the method behind the signals is the key, because it will give you the confidence to actually take action with your greater understanding.

This action happens every day the markets are open and today by no means is anything special. You can look back at weeks, months and longer and see it is all the same.  Acting on the information with a high understanding of what you are doing, is again key. Knowledge is power and those who have the knowledge have the power.

Short post here today as I will continue with the lessons I started last week tomorrow, until then trade well, trade committed.

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Huge Market Reversal after Bernanki Postpones

Saturday, August 27th, 2011

In Friday’s market we saw a huge market reversal that was orderly and structured. The market traded with purpose and conviction with huge trends that were very trade-able.

In a daily picture view, the market is marking time for a possible continuation move to the upside, but we could consolidate here for a spell. It would not be uncommon for price to hang out a little longer before a break of the last highs are made, but would have to leave open the possibility for the market to break to the down-side too.

It is possible and I have to see it that way. I won’t marry the trade, but leave this open as price attempts to continue its assent to higher prices.

I have a larger tick chart than normal, that is squeezed together, showing the trading signals generated or that one could have traded. This is a higher time frame, so you will get fewer signals but they will be much larger.   You would only need to catch one move out of the many in the session to make big money.

With this model, a target of 2 points initially, than moving to trail you position would have served you well. Trading multiple contract you can do that, and lower your risk as your maximum stop on this trading model would be 2 points. When you see a choppy market, this can easily give you a one to one ratio in a 2 point target with 2 point stop. You can go back over the last long term chart I posted and see how that would have served you.

The interesting thing is the trading method is not the trading indicators and really does not have anything to do with the method per say in only that the exact same signals at the exact same area are identical. Don’t get me wrong, we use the indicators to confirm in what is present for all different reason, but again, still consistent with the method overall. It is amazing to say the least.

It sure is nice to look at. Going back, the data really always looks the same. The moves are just not as big as they are now, because of the increased volatility in the market.

I just did a video for my members where I took this chart back for 10 days and marked up the all the past data with trade-able turning points that would be consistent with the method and did it in a 5 minute video, then went back and inditified with a verticle line all the entries and they were amazingly consistent with the custom indicator I show. I was not looking at the indicator to get the indicator turning point, but the price and its structure. That was a cool exercise because I had not looked at the past data before I did the video and was able to fly through 10 days of data turning points and telling why on many as I zoom through.

Being objective is what is always necessary to be able to trade this way. If you have strong opinions you wont’ see the turns. That is one aspect of the mental side of trading.

Traders face constant challenges while trying to out flank the markets. You need to end up profitable at the end of the day, with being right only an after thought of no consequence.

In a study by psychologist, they conclude that humans when fixing on an idea, we see what we want to see.

If we create mental maps and we have conviction to that map, we will blind ourselves from the reality that exits before us. We tend to overvalue those things that we own. Once we own a market opinion we tend to over value it.

We only see what we expect to see and are then blind to reality. A closed mind will cause you to miss data and not look at it objectively.

The professional trader has the conviction and boldness to act and the humility to accept that there may be more they don’t see at that time.

When looking at the market, an empty mind can do wonders for your bottom line.

All that to say, that a trader can trade at those market turns I have marked in this post and all the other ones if you are trained. The mental training goes with this along with ongoing training through out the week.

I have seen many trader excel and find there way through this trading method to be left with a hope, confidence and an increasing bottom line. It is all up to the individual and there determination to learn. It is all there for the taking, you need to have the passion and desire to go with it to keep on going even if get hard.

That is why and where mental training with a great trading method is key for success. You need the ability to follow through and not let your emotions over-ride your judgment.

That is why we never marry a position, but let the market tell us what it wants to do.

A simple approach is like I mentioned to approach this with a 2 point target and 2 point stop. You would have done well, and with a little more skill, the ability to discern when to ride up a portion or all of the move to higher prices. That does take a little more time, but it is within the method to learn when and on which trades to go for more.

OK, that’s it today, I will be back trading after labor day and will continue my posting of trades then. Enjoy, the rest of your Summer, it is going fast.  Vince

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Narrow Trading Range-Before Next Move

Thursday, March 31st, 2011

Thursday, 3-31-11;  Today we saw another very narrow range in the markets, as the major index’s pulled slightly back from its ongoing advance.

The trend is still up and we are not far from an all time yearly high. With the last two days basically sideways, giving time to digest previous gains, we could be ready for another move. The question is, will it continue up or reverse back down. The market has made it this far, and those who were trying to short this market are getting creamed. All the latest news says the market should go down, but it seems to just ignore the news and march on to its own agenda.

In today’s trading, I did not stay to long at it, taking just two trades. I was in the first one for about 45 minutes, which is long time for me, but that is what I had to do. It was during the New York lunch time, where things are known for being notoriously slow 12-2 p.m. The second trade I was in for only a few minutes and was just a very small scalp. That was all the market was giving and I did not want to sit around waiting through the rest of the day, so what I had was fine.

We only saw a 5 point trading range in the S&P emini’s today. That has to be the smallest trading range I have seen in a long time. It makes it hard for many traders to make money in this environment, but not those who know how to scalp trade there way through the day. A little here and there adds up. If I started earlier, there were some pretty good trades to be had. The screen shot of the better portion of the day is below along with my trades.

The market is very predictable if you know what you are looking for.  I have been sick lately with a head cold. Its not enough to make me stop trading, but it is harder to wait the market out when you are not up to your best.  Overall, this week I am 4 for 4 positive days and hope to start a new streak.

I use different charts in my trading and seem to only show this one chart. This is the smallest size chart I watch, with this fitting inside a larger chart with the same signals on them. I use a few more trading indicators on the screen, but don’t really need any, as the the method is price action driven. It is always important to point that out, because new traders may come on and see this as the Holy Grail of trading. It is not. You need to work at this, even though it may look easy.

With that said, you can go back and look at dozens and dozens or even hundreds of post and screen shots and you will virtually see the same type of charts with very similar reads to them as above.  The indicators only reflect what the price is doing and can be a tool, but you need to know how to swim in these waters before you jump in.

Money and trade management are vital to your success. If you allow greed to take hold you are cooked. The same can be said about fear, with a lack of conviction to pull the trigger can get  you left behind.

Outside of knowing how to trade, you are your biggest asset or liability. You can make this happen, if you are consistant with yourself. If you go outside of your rules and do what feels good, you may be in for some pain. We as traders don’t like to be wrong, and ego to often gets in the way. Are you going to bend and just allow yourself to be tossed around? If you do, you then become your biggest liability and reaching your trading goals will become more distant.

Get a trading method that works, stick to it, and discipline yourself to wait for it’s signals, either price driven or indicator, if that is all you can see, its better than relying on what your feelings.

Traders need to make moves on what they know about the market and its behaviors. If you don’t know, then you need to put in some extra screen time.

Most important, don’t risk your money until you have the trading edge. Without the trading edge, you then are reduced to just guessing and that is not going to help you.

That’s it for now.     P.S.  I will get back to the follow up from yesterdays post over the weekend. It seems like the right time to follow up with that. Good trading to all.

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Day Trading and the Opening Gap

Wednesday, October 27th, 2010

Today is Wednesday, October 27 2010 as we saw the market bounce off of key support.

The stock market has moved sideways for 11 days now.  It has been consolidating and moving sideways while it gets into position for its next move.  Time is a key element when following the stock market.  It is a major component that propels prices in one direction or another.  The buildup of market pressure can only come with time as players position themselves above and below key levels.  Today we saw one of those levels and prices respected it, with support by reversing its direction back up.

In yesterday’s market we saw a gap opening lower, followed by a quick retracement back up, to close that gap.  Yesterday marked the second day in a row with opening gaps.  Today marks the third day in a row with an opening gap that again was almost filled near the end of the session.  We can look to tomorrow’s open to continue and close today’s gap.  The market momentum is to the up side and we should see prices follow through at least on the open.

The last three trading days have been a good time to get familiar with trading the opening gap.  I cannot remember a time recently where we saw three trading days with three large gap openings and seeing them filled within the same day.   Yesterday’s opening gap was filled quickly and depending on the size, that is fairly typical.  All traders need to be familiar with the market pressures behind these gap openings.  There are days wherein you will see a runaway gap and it never comes back.  Some traders look to market internals to better gauge if a market will keep running in the direction of the gap.  I basically use Technical Analysis, the study of price, to determine which way the market will continue in.  Technical Analysis takes into consideration all market news and events that may be taking place during the day.

Yesterday, I did not post anything but did have a nice quick easy day picking up my daily goal.  I was up for the open and had three trades.  The first trade was a loss for three ticks as I entered early.  The next two trades were both good with nice returns and that was it.  The total time trading was just 45 minutes, I would call that a good day. You can see in the chart below how the gap was filled in a time chart with night trading removed, to the tick. Having a chart up like this is a quick easy way to see what you are up against as the market opens up. In Trade Station, it is the contract symbol followed by a (.d) after it, that will remove any Globe-X session.

In today’s trading I had another good day and after it was over took 5 trades for the day with one loosing trade of only 1 tick, my first trade. I have a different view for you here, as on this chart it is the middle time frame view that I use which matches my smaller chart, as far as indicators that I show here.  This is a limited view, as I can’t show it all, but some is better than non. In this chart, below, I have some of the trades marked that could have been taken and or ones that I might have considered. They are identified by the matching signals below. I don’t follow the indicators as a trading method, but use it as a guide, to tell me if I am on track.  I don’t and would not take every signal as you see in the chart, because certain conditions are not met. So, passing on some signal trades is in order. The trade signals are a good indication if your timing is on or off. It is clear to see that the third trade identified as “Bad Trade” was just that. I did have a touch of fear creep in, which was fear of loss opportunity. I saw that big move coming and did not want to miss it, but  needed to trust my trade method as the next entry was clear as day the right entry and posed low risk. My notes on the screen will show you more.

The bottom line is, that was the trade and I did plan on giving it more room but didn’t think I would see it come so close to getting stopped out. I had smaller size so the draw down was less, but I don’t plan on doing that again any time soon. At large turning points, the market does and can get a little extra tricky. I tried to allow for that, but really didn’t need to. Tomorrow is a new day and a chance to do it all again.  Until then, good trading.  Vince

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Sell off in the Markets but Uptrend still looks OK for now !

Tuesday, October 19th, 2010

This post is for Tuesdays market October 19th, 2010 and we saw a bit of a sell off in the markets across the board.

The sell off was contained and the market did pull back up off its lows but also above an important support point from a few days ago,  Thursdays and Fridays low. Today’s close ended above those lows and that is important even if intra day it broke it. The more important sign and or part is that it closed above those previous lows.

So, we wait. If we can hold on and I think we still will, this clustering of multiple days will make for a better advance when we come out of it. Today’s drop may even slow down the rising bullish sentiment. The polling is done after the Tuesday close and reported to subscribers of which I am not before tomorrows open. This is an investment survey of Market newsletter writers. This information is very helpful in gauging the public, since these newsletter writers are writing for the public by and large. Then the public acts on this information and they are wrong so often at critical turning points, go figure.

I am not making fun of them, but that is just the way it is and likely the way it will continue to be. Human nature has not changed as far I know.

In today’s trading, I only was at it for what seemed like minutes. In fact it was 10 minutes for the bulk of today’s gains. I did add just a tiny scalp on very small size after when I saw the exact moment for a re-entry. I could have easily taken a point but just found myself taking a tiny scalp. I really liked the first two trades as I played them exactly the way I would have, even if I saw the data ahead of time. I saw no reason to mess it up, and just closed it up. Traveling in the S.F. Bay area for today, but will be back tomorrow and should have more time, for the markets and such. My trades below.

I have not come up with anything different as of yet, so I have reverted back to what I was showing before. This is just a small piece of my total set up and the smallest chart size of what I follow in my method.

Good Trading, Vince

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Inside Day for Stock Market Today

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010:

Today we saw an inside day for the Stock Market. What that means is the market traded between yesterdays high and low, but did not go past either. Thus, that would make today’s trading, “an inside day” or inside trading day.

What can you expect after you see a day like today?  The answer to that is increased volatility one way or another. Usually, the end of the trading range that gets  penetrated is where the new direction will take place.

The stock market has basically traded sideways in a large range for 8 trading days as of now. A break out above or below yesterdays high and low, will likely move the market significantly. We are sitting at very large major resistance overhead currently. If we get a break above, of which I am expecting, you will have room to run.

Given the time that has passed, allows for the market to gather strength to make its next move. If it continues to the upside, it is going to be a big advance. Their is an enormous amount of stops just above the current market. If you know how to read the market, you can see it. That is going to be the fuel to drive prices higher. It could come as soon as tomorrow Thursdays market, but it is possible we could see a second inside day, which would create that much more of an advance once it happens. I don’t remember when I saw two inside days back to back, but it is possible.

So, be prepared for a big move, one way or another. My views are as stated, UP.

In today’s and yesterdays trading, I did good yesterday trading only about 10 minutes on the early open, which was great. I loved the fast action and movement of the market. So much better than trading during slow market action. I picked up a few points and went out to do other things. Today, I had the same results. I did not have the time yesterday and or today to see the market for more than a few minutes and did pick up a few easy points early on, in minutes. I got a little daring and set a wide stop and left for the day, hoping we would close on the highs of the session. I don’t do that to often (rarely) and I could have picked a better time to try that, but, I gave it a shot and it did not work out. Gave back the early gains for the hopes of a 10-15 point move or better.

Yesterdays and today’s equity chart below. Until tomorrow, good trading to all.

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Market Consolidates for another chance at S&P 1140

Thursday, August 5th, 2010

Today is Thursday, August 5th and the S&P was basically flat today with a .75 point loss, consolidating to better get to the short term target area of 1140 area.

This may not be the ultimate resting area for the S&P, 1140 but it is an important milestone on the way. Only time will tell, what lies in store for the S&P, but I still think there is more room for surprises here. Currently we are at 1123.75 as of today’s close and will still be looking for 1140 very soon. I would have like to have seen it today, but the market has its own timetable not mine.

I looked at directional changes late last night after driving 5 hours from the S.F. Bay Area and may have been a little premature on my target call of 1140 on the S&P sometime during today’s session. I think we have a better chance to get there for Fridays session, as we marked another day sideways, which will allow a better clearer path on up.

I can only see an upside resolve to the bearish bias of this current market. I want to be a bear, but I just can not at this time. This is the kind of flexibility one needs to ultimately be successful in the financial markets. One can not impose there overall directional bias onto the financial markets.  I am not that stubborn to admit I am wrong when it is so. Yesterday, the market was pulling back in the night trading, but still saw, the path of least of resistance as being up to the target of 1140. It did not happen in today’s market, but still hold out for the possibility of it hitting that in Fridays session. That would be about a move of 165 points on the Dow, to get to that equivalent level.

Time will tell, but if we yet still go sideways in Fridays market, it will still increase the chance for not only 1140 being hit, but higher prices yet. One thing at a time, and lets see how Fridays action panes out.

It did not matter much to me, by the early morning open, I could see that we did not get the upside break out I was looking for and managed to push higher on the open, but from lower premarket levels. The market clawed its way back up, to put in a nice daily reversal and closed in at the high of the day, a very positive sign for tomorrow market. The market had excess and I guess it had to work it off by shedding a few points, only to come back to it’s original spot of the day.

As mentioned, time will tell. In today’s trading, I did good and hit my daily goal with a solid posting of a few nice small trades. I did not trade large size, but it added up just the same. The screen shot below, will show how and where I entered this market to get my daily goal.

Very slow trading this week, as the market has surely tested the patients of many traders me included. We saw only very light volume but that which is very typical for this time of year. More and more traders are hitting the market early for a few points and getting out of Dodge for the day. I can see it clearly in the tape.

This might be a good clue for the rest of the month. It won’t be a bad strategy to make a few and leave for the remaining weeks of the month, but every traders will have to decide that for themselves.

As mentioned, my trades below. I hope everyone is enjoying there summer by getting outside and doing something fun. When summer is over, its over, so take heed of the opportunity while you have it. The market will still be here when you get back.

Good Trading to all, Vince

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