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Market call still on course

Monday, October 24th, 2011

Today is Monday October 24th, 2011 and today, I will post Fridays trades and today’s trades below to start, with a few comments about the current rally.

First this is today’s trades below, with just under an hour of trading start to finish. The early morning hour had some good moves to it on the upside, as I came in as things were slowing down a bit. I tried to take what I could from the market and it worked out with 4 out of 5 positive trades for a pretty easy daily goal today.

On the one loss, I came in early and did not want to give the market more room and got stopped out -5 ticks.  I did re-enter at one tick better, for some gains, but was really just waiting for the long move which I saw was the bigger point trade. That proved to be right and so the days gains were in and time to go.

Friday, I had another daily trading goal met as well, but my first trades were off for no good reason other than it was just me who was off. I did come back with a few nice trades short but took me a little better than 2 hours. Unfortunately, I started late and was stuck with slow market action for a while and worked with what I had. Again, it turned out OK as shown in the screen shot below. If you click on the charts twice it will blow up for a full size view.

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The market has continued to bring shock and amazement to Wall Street with continued gains into much higher levels. I had been calling for this rally to continue and it sure has all the way from the bottom.

Everyone was calling for a crash weeks ago, but I was not. I did say that we would be looking at these higher prices just before the bottom and just after the bottom of S&P 1075. Currently we are at low 1250’s and hit a first of two strong resistance area’s I recently called. Today’s move satisfies the first one and we will have to see if the upper one keeps going but it is there.  There is resistance, but the market is swallowing it up to only push higher. The next stiff resistance area the market may be drawing itself up to is the mid to upper S&P 1270’s and as high as 1280 itself. That is extreme but it can’t be overlooked. Under normal circumstances, a pull back from the current levels would normal and natural, so be aware of that. The price action will have to dictate from here.

The market and world is somewhat on the edge and it is not generally a happy time, but all we can do is take it one day at a time. Long term, all the refinancing in Europe and elsewhere is only prolonging the day of reckoning. I am a long term bear, but just not yet.

In 2012, I would expect highly volatile  market conditions as things churn. More to come on that in the months ahead.

That’s it for now, sometime this week, I will continue where I left off in discussing market psychology and the day trader, until then good trading to all.

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Bulls Taking Short Traders Out – one day at a time

Tuesday, October 11th, 2011

Today is Tuesday October 11th, 2011 with just a quick update here today with the posting of my trades for the last three sessions at the bottom.  Yesterday was a Holiday, but the markets were still open, but with very light volume.

We have seen very nice follow through from the bottom made 6 days ago. I was off by one day in hitting the turn in this market, but was still very much bullish all the way through as can be seen in my writings in the days before the large advance.

Many traders and investors were calling for the bottom to drop out and I am glad to say I was not one of them. I said then, that the position I held was very unpopular and will catch many by surprise. It is only after the market has made a huge advance will some start to throw in the towel to admit they may have been wrong.

It is still early in the move, but there will be more, even if we get a pull back. The market did move right up to the 1190 area I mention in my last post as we seemed to have gotten that in yesterdays close. Today we held on to the gains and so we shall see.  There is a good chance that we don’t pull back much, and just continue on blowing past all the stops that are laid out like domino’s helping to push this market higher to wipe them all out.

The market rarely does what the masses think it is going to do and here is yet another example just as I previously wrote. The market has moved up over 11% in 6 trading days from the low and is by any stretch of the imagination a lot. There is more fuel in this engine, so if you are short just be careful. Getting a pull back from here would be normal, and again, many may just be expecting that and it might not come. What if they want in so badly, that they just start buying from fear of missing the big move. Well, that is going to continue to hit the buy stops that are set as protection to help limit traders and investors losses and thus the domino’s continue.

Currently, the daily market is up, the weekly down and monthly still up, by my analysis. Soon, all three will be up and those who are in the way, will get rolled over. Either way, just be careful.

I am not spending a lot of time in front of the screen as I have been doing other things important to me. If I can pick up my points for the session in 10 minutes, 30 minutes or 60 minutes, great. I just don’t want to be in front of the screen to long.

Today, I picked up my daily goal but was in early. I was leaving for a deer hunt, and only had limited time premarket and just a few minutes into the open. Just one crack at it and had to figure if getting in early was going to hit a 5 tick stop. It was just enough and scaled out into the open, done in 25 minutes.

Yesterday, I came up a little shy of my goal which is 2-4 S&P points a day. I try and shoot for the high side of that goal, but yesterday, the volume was real slow when I came into market and just settled for that.

Friday, I had a small loss, but not to much damage. It was not a stop out day, but I hung it up before it got to one, as my last trade was way off and so was I.

Let me post my trades and we can pick this up tomorrow as well as continue with where I left off in my recent training.

Today’s market trades Tuesday;

Yesterday’s trades Monday below;

Friday’s Trades October 7th below;

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Stock Market on the Brink

Sunday, October 2nd, 2011

Post for Friday’s market September 30th, 2011;  No trading on Friday for me, as I was up considerable for the week and took the day off to do other things. Still Deer Season and looking for that elusive Buck, going out today again, Sunday and hope to find what I am looking for by sunset.

I still have a chart of the first hours market turns as shown above. If was a very active day and there a ton of trading opportunities for points. There is no shortage in finding trades that can produce. Making a few trades and then living life is a good way go. Trading all day is not really my thing. I know many look and follow the markets all day, but I can tell you, that can be very draining. Getting in screen time if you are learning is something else. You have to put screen time if you are ever going to pick up on the markets nuances.

Friday we did see a sell off late in the day and ended on the lows for the session. Not typically a good sign and not exactly what I thought Friday’s market would bring. We are still withing the very thin margin of my last call as the market really needs to stay above the 1120 area in the S&P on a closing basis to keep things alive.

There is more room it could pull back with the most recent lows a critical level, but that is much farther down in the chart. We are starting a new quarter and a new month and nothing has really changed in the setup.  I would like to see a reversal day for Monday take hold. I would not be surprised to see a move back up to the 1138 S&P level early on in the session and if that does happen, will set the stage for a break out high yet, but first things first.

There is a little room for lower prices early on, but not a lot, so any reversal should take hold fairly early on. The market can move two ways, that is for sure as mentioned, the stock market is on the brink of tipping over to the next leg down, of which there is 100-200 S&P points of room there to retrace down, but I have already make my position on what will happen first before any further sell off, again, all just my opinion and I could be wrong, so always do your own analysis.

The market is on the brink, there is no doubt and a big move is coming one way or another. Many think the break will come now with a new closing low in the Dow at 10,600 and if that happens, we will likely trigger some massive selling, but don’t think that sell off is going to come now. One more drive back up will get the bears to throw in the towel then we will see. I can still see that 1245 area as a target and resistance, if the rally takes hold in the next couple of days, as we are currently at S&P 1122.  Time will tell on this one.

Good trading to all.

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Follow up on Market Calls

Monday, September 26th, 2011

Today is Monday September 26th, 2011 and want to do a follow up to the market calls recently made.

First let me post my trades from today and will keep my comments short unlike Friday’s post.

I have been getting up a little later and so missing the early parts of the sessions recently, but that is not always bad. It gives a little insight into what is happening and what may continue to happen as things move along.

I took 4 trades total, 2 were for pretty good gains, with one for a small loss and one nearly flat. An average day with only 45 minutes invested trading and a little better than 50 minutes in follow the market. From that stand point a perfect day.

I gave myself a B- grade as my second trade had poor placement but good overall direction still. The short did not produce within the time it should have and just exited nearly flat. I added on 1 and that one had -1 tick. The last long, I did not get filled at the high tick and exited at my increased stop, close but no cigar. I may have been a little harsh on my grade, but I can’t change that now. An easy day overall with little struggle.

The afternoon session I did live video’s for my group and called out several entries on the way to a 1155 target that I was talking about in my Friday post and in my video’s.

I stated in Friday’s post that we should see 1155 within the morning session or unless we get it in the premarket. I should have took that a little farther as we did see the best part of a 25 point S&P call to 20.75 points a couple hours before the open.

The next part could have pushed that completion to the afternoon session of which we did complete that call right at the end of day with a point or two to spare. I could see that early on and choose to talk about it in a recorded training session with my group.  I showed them all the reasons why that was the likely target for the session and it was nice to see it come to pass.

The next follow up call I made yesterday in regards to the metals was that Silver was going to continue to fall until 26.50 and that would be a great area to buy as a long term hold. Well, the metal did drop an additional 10%+ in just that one session and hit $ 26 and change and reversed course all the way back up to the $30 area. Wow, that was fast.

The point there would be that the market respected the numbers that the method identified with great confidence. I would expect that low to hold even if we back fill a little lower from here. If anyone can buy physical silver at the upper 20’s area, that I believe would be a great long term buy. I expect the metals to do well for the next few years and reaching well over 100 per ounce.

We have some work to do currently to get things turned around which at this time we have not yet done, but am expecting big things in the next 12-18 months. It is a great alternative than  just letting cash sit in the bank and or participating in the Treasury market. A portion of ones assets in metals is prudent even with the volatility. Time here will heal many woes.

As far as the Stock Market in general, I believe we have put in a tradable bottom and higher prices overall I feel can be expected. That is not a popular opinion just as I wrote that on Friday when the market was 272 Dow points lower. It takes a lot of courage to make a call like I did, but when you know what you can expect from the market as per my trading method, which is very unique, it is in reality not that hard to do.

I can be wrong at times and I did in part get the final target on my last S&P call coming up short, but that is trading. I will get many more right than I will get wrong and if one trades with good trade management, partial profits should be taken while on the way to the full target.

This is all in the daily market that I am talking about, of which I don’t really trade but look at and many others do as well. I like to follow and call that out because so many follow it and it is an easy way to point out that my trading method works in various time frames as my members can testify.

The other part is that this is really just for me. To exercise my skills to call market turning points in the daily market, the hourly market and on down to various tick charts. The method works across various time frames and is customizable to the trader who is flexible.

I have more to say, but will save it for tomorrow, until then, good trading to all.

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Perfect Call on Gold & Silver Sell Off

Saturday, September 24th, 2011

Today is Friday September 23, 2011 and we saw the markets stabilize from the frenzied sell off of the last few days.

We never made it to the top of where I thought we might get to this round in the S&P (1245),  but that has a silver lining for the long term bulls.

Be sure to read at the bottom of this post my call on the Gold and Silver sell off made seven days ago, where I did get that one right, spot on.

Before, I start getting into the what is going on with the markets, I would like to recap my trading day first.

I took good method trades except for one that stands out. My third trade was a long and I had no business doing that, a small 5 tick loss, but other than that, the other two losses are just trading losses that happen. My second trade would have worked out OK with my 5 tick stop in place, but closed it out at -3 ticks before I saw prices go to where I thought it might, but that is OK with me as I had reasons for it.

I was really looking at that last trade, where prices really moved up. I could see this one coming as per the method with solid “trade to targets” along the way. I road out the smaller turning points and remained with the plan for that move. The 5 point trade with the first contract coming off, sure was nice to help take the pressure off for the pullback that followed. Adding on at the arrows would be aggressive, and I thought about it, but was happy enough with the slightly higher contract count from lower levels.

Seeing the last trade, with its “trade to targets” helped give me a very good day on the session, a good three times plus my daily trading goal overall.  This was one of those days that like to hit 2-3 times per month that is over and above the regular 3-4 point + daily trading goal that I regularly hit. In this market, it has been a higher overall point total for most days, but the market volatility is offering it, so we take what it offers with as little struggle as possible.

You can see that the trading indicators match up nicely with my entries when I do the right thing, but you can also see that when I don’t do the right thing, you can again spot it as it does not match the indicators.

I don’t trade off the indicators, if you can believe that, but the trading method apart from trading indicators will give me the exactly same spots for entry, but based on a totally different set of method conditions and rules.

Current members can testify that this is true, but I will add, that the indicators will confirm very nicely what we are trying to do, as time and time again, it just works.

The key is being able to trade the method by its set of straight forward rules and conditions.  I would think that it should not be that hard to pick up 3-4 points per session when you follow the trading method and in reality, it is not. The truth is as traders we need more than the ability to follow a trading method. We need to be able to execute it and keep our emotions in check.

Letting ourselves, defeat ourselves, is what happens so often in the trading world, that it is hard for many to admit it to others and more importantly themselves.

When you are able to admit this fact that you don’t know but are willing to learn by doing the hard work to find out how, first to trade a solid method that is consistent with the natural rhythm of the markets and then work on yourself to uncover the hidden weaknesses that we all tend to cover up. It is in exposing those weaknesses that we will get a real sense of progress, that will be lasting and not just a temporary surge of hope that is not founded upon anything of lasting substance.

Jumping around looking for the Holy Grail in trading is not going to be the answer. There are many good trading methods out there and some I am sure work well and there are some I am also sure that don’t.

The point is, if and I would say that one more time, “if”, you have a solid trading method that can deliver what you want out of the markets, then you really need to work on you, from a different standpoint, internally. That is where traders run off course.

I don’t have time in this post to go into those things that can be done to start that work, but I will likely in future posts. I know I have covered some of this in previous posts, but new perspectives, idea’s and skills are constantly being added into the mental side of trading for me and that always gets passed on down to members. So let me end this portion of my post as I can see I went down a totally different path from the start.

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The recent days sell off has a silver lining to it. We did come up short this go around in my last call for S&P1245, but did still go pretty far along that path. I can admit this last target wasn’t reached in the daily market, but the good part is, this sell off has flushed out a lot of the long term holders of the last couple months.

We have re-tested the lows and do expect the market to hold somewhat in this area to counter with a strong rally back up that will potentially take us to much higher levels than the 1245 number we never saw to this point.

Everyone has become very bearish on this market. There are many calling for a large continued drop below the 1000 mark on the S&P and I can see why, but it can not be that obvious for everyone to get that one right. There are numerous polls out that show the level of bullishness has dropped to extreme levels, especially with this latest drop. I cannot be apart of the “Herd” and agree with them at this time.

I am looking for support and a strong counter trend rally to start sometime this week for again, much higher levels than the 1245 mentioned, so that is the silver lining. I could be wrong so don’t take this as investment advise.

Currently, for Mondays session. I can see a 25 point move up within the first 90 minutes of trading. We could get that in the night session first, but I see a clear path of at least that amount.

Lastly, on September 14th, 7 trading sessions ago, I wrote in my blog that Gold and Silver was going to drop. I said then on Wednesday that by Friday and as soon as tomorrow, (Thursday) we were going to see a sharp fast sell-off in Gold, a minimum of $150 dollars per oz. Then the price was 1826 per oz and that would bring prices to a minimum of 1675 per oz.

Seven trading sessions later we saw NO higher prices and the drop did start on Thursday, the next day and 7 days later we stand at 1639 per oz. completing that call, currently a drop of 187 dollar per oz, over 10% and Silver did come along for the ride as mentioned. I see support in Silver coming in at 26.50 or so and feel that would be a great buying opportunity for a long term hold.

Currently Silver is $ 30 per oz, so we could see a little more to come for the metals and again, I think this will be a spot to pick some up for a long term hold, but that is just my opinion. This would be physical Silver and Gold for that matter. When Silver hits that 26.50 area, Gold will find its level of support at that same time. The target on Silver looks easier to call than the final support on Gold, so Silver will help find the timing and support of Gold, again all my own opinion and not a recommendation for others to buy or sell.

I went way over in this post, but there is a lot going on and lots to say. Lets give the markets some time to see how the next few moves will play out.

As day traders, the daily markets don’t really matter much, but its good to look at and follow for overall direction. I wish all my readers the very best. Feed back and comments are always welcomed. Vince

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Day Trade Ratio, and Risk Reward

Thursday, September 15th, 2011

Let me first start off with today’s trading of which I did very little of it, but enough to get what I wanted for the time invested. There is always a trade off and getting a few easy trades for investing 30 minutes total start to stop, is well worth it. Today’s trades below.

Yesterday I confirmed a call I made earlier in the week that we were going to trade up to 1176 at a minimum and we would then take it from there. That happened.  The next part was a conditional statement also days back, that said, “If this, then that”. The condition was a close above 1180 would propel the market much higher to a minimum of 1245 in quick fashion.

Today’s session highs of which we closed there, was 1205 and 1209 now in the after market and currently at 1202. I think we will see 1212 in the first hour of tomorrows regular session as that will just be some follow through from today’s strong close. A little resistance will likely come in there as the markets take a break to digest its huge gains from today’s session.

I mentioned Gold in yesterdays blog as well that I thought we would see a $150 dollar drop starting as soon as today and not later than Friday. Well, today it appears that ball got rolling with a $50 per ounce intra day drop and a settled price of -45 dollars. That one will be interesting to watch.

In yesterdays closing, I saw a 14 point drop as a possible and or normal reaction from yesterdays move withing the morning session. The close was 1182 and -14 would take you to 1168. Well, at the open, we gaped higher and after the follow though within the first 30 minutes the decline set in and there was that 14 point drop exactly. That move was finished within the first 90 minutes keeping it in the morning session, but the starting point was just from a higher level because of the gap. That was just a quick observation pointing out what would be normal to expect, but you could say I got that one wrong, somewhat. We still got the decline but after the opening. That’s fine.

The bigger issue is renewed strength coming into the market when no one was looking for it. Everyone was ready to through in the towel and thought the market was going off the deep end. There are lots of problems that is for sure, but the market rarely does what most people think it will ,when they think it will happen. Let everyone become bullish again and I will take the other side gladly.

I was able to quickly get insight into the next confirmed move, by looking at the individual companies that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average. One by one, I went through there charts, and just tallied things up, Bullish and Bearish stocks one by one and viewed how much room was in there respective issues. There I was much more at ease with this next move.

Anything can happen, and the market can always do what ever it wants, but to me, I saw upward buying coming in quickly and enough room to make a good dent in the market and so far, that is what we got. We will need to see some additional follow through to get up the 1245 + area and giving the market some time, I think it will come.

I just applied my method of reading the market and quickly saw the  moves. It does not matter what it is, stocks, commodities, futures, forex, they are all the same in how they are made up with the same principals at work.

In taking this down to a micro level, of say small tick charts, you can get what you want out of the market based on the amount of risk you are willing to take, risk reward. The rewards are always proportionate to your risk, with many coming in at 2,3, 4 to 1 trading ratio or higher. In all depends what you want from the market and what you are willing to risk.

In scalping the S&P emini, I can risk three ticks to hit 6 ticks pretty easily. That is a 2:1 trade ratio. I will nomally never go below 1:1 trade ratio and that would mean on that example risking 3 ticks for a 3 ticks reward, 1:1 trade ratio, and the smallest risk reward ratio one could plan on taking.

That is about the smallest I could safely go down to. The trade method would allow for small targeted moves of 3 ticks while risking only 3 ticks if that is what you wanted to do. You would have a ton of those trade opportunities per day, but would not advise anyone to trade that way all day, as they would likely get burned out and make mistakes.

Currently, I run about 5 tick stop on most trades to start, but when I get movement in my favor, it quickly goes to 4, then 3 and so on. The benefit of this trading method, is you can tailor the method to you, as the trading principals are relative to the size charts to settle on to trade in combination to your daily trading goal, if you choose to trade by one.

A three point daily goal can be had by two trades of 6 ticks, something similar to what I did today. There were a lot more trades through out the day, but hitting the light side of my daily goal in easy fashion, is a way to stay fresh, and enjoy the life that trading offers to so many.

Lastly, some people would say that it seems like they live to work, while it should be that we work to live. The same is true in trading, “we trade to live” not the other way around, live to trade. Think about it.

Trade well, VT

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New Stock Market Move Now Confirmed

Wednesday, September 14th, 2011

We are seeing a new market move confirmed in my opinion as of this Wednesday September 14th, 2011. I just took the time earlier to apply the Sniper Day Trading Method, to the all the individual charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and found my answer. I thought we were at least going to hit the 1176 number today and wrote about that last night while the night trading was down to 1148. That would be a 28 point S&P turn around, or 280 point equivalent in the Dow for the coming session.This was all from a much lower levels that I first made this call and today that was hit.

I know have any hesitation satisfied as to the move after that, as I mentioned a few days ago in my blog posting that the next move was conditional. If this, then that. The “this” was a close above 1180 on the S&P would take us up substantially. I don’t remember exactly the number I gave then, but it was around S&P 1245 or so.  In looking to my work, today, that is the number  I feel very comfortable in projecting prices to. It should come pretty fast and as I see now as I write this while the market still has about 90 minutes to go before the close, it would appear that we will close above the 1180 mark and thus confirming the call earlier in the week.

In applying the Sniper Day Trading Method to the daily market, I can see the confirmation of the move. If I had done that work yesterday or even a few days ago, I would have had the greater conviction to make the call. The stock market is fractal in nature and the same principals that apply in a tick chart or time chart can be applied to a daily and or even weekly chart.

Since I mentioned stocks, the trading method will work excellent on stocks in the various time frames. It could go to the daily market and or much smaller time charts, tick charts or range charts. People trade these markets and they are usually very predictable with there decisions when you apply the trading method to it.

I will make another call that looks like it is getting ready to move. There is currently no indication of this market doing anything substantial as of now, but in the days to come, I feel we will see a huge drop in the price of Gold, and Silver will be going along for the ride. I can quickly see a $150 dollar drop in Gold coming as the stock market continues to advance.

This drop in Gold is likely only temporary but it will non the less likely happen. I am looking for something to happen around Friday, but it could come as soon as tomorrow. This is all my opinion and something I have been watching and waiting for to call out. I could be wrong, so don’t take my advise to trade off of, use your own judgement and make your trading decisions in that area, as I am just giving my opinion on the matter.

In today’s trading, I had two trades for solid gains while only investing about 30 minutes start to stop for the session. I will post my trades in the chart below. One note, and I often mention this that the trading method is not about following indicators, it is about knowing how to trade by being able to read the price action. I do this in a very unique way far different from so many others. This is my own compilation of understanding markets and how to limit ones risk by being able to enter with very little draw down and virtually instant price movement gratification.

With all of that said, the trading indicators are extremely consistent with the trading method and it’s components, so following the indicators can help learning members get a handle of the turning points that happen through out the day. The method is customizable to the individual and can be adjusted to the markets you trade and the dominant time frames you currently use. I trade for short term moves mainly on the S&P emini, but that is me. The days session and it turning point and continuation points identified below.

As I finish writing this, I can see that the market moved up into the 1190’s and is settling back to around the low 1180’s. On the very short term, as in tomorrow’s morning session, a pull back to 1168 would be very normal and could be expected, so just be cautious and aware of that. Again, that is just my opinion and not trading advise. Best to you all !

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Short Term Momentum Turns Up for Market

Monday, September 12th, 2011

Today, the markets had a very nice reversal off the lows of the day closing at its high of the day, a very bullish scenario. We should see some follow through into Tuesdays session at a minimum and a very solid rally coming in for the next several days at best.

We could see 1178 at the high in tomorrows session where some resistance then might be felt. A solid break over that number in the days following, should bring in a lot more buying even as high 1245/50, in the S&P emini futures, but that is conditional on a close above the said number.

Tomorrows session is a pretty important one in getting the field to commit to a direction. The market sentiment is hovering at the low end of the spectrum at 38% bulls where 35% or lower will usually usher in a strong rally with legs. So, if the rally can become contained, giving the impression that the market is getting ready to roll over, the bears may bit, tipping the percentage of bulls down under the threshold mentioned and thus, throwing off a nice rally to the upside. That is not the conventional wisdom right now, with all the talk of a Greek default and the unrest building, scary stuff. The fear is a domino effect in Europe and other players getting sucked into the downward spiral.

I saw that China may be throwing a lifeline to Italy and that be lifting the market with some additional hope, but time will tell. The chart is saying rally up at least now for the short term. The numbers mentioned will be out Wednesday morning before the open and will likely reflect a stronger level of insight for the next sustained move.                                         Monday’s Trades Below;

I did not post on Friday, but will show the session I had below. It was met with a small loss on the day, as I did not want to push it. I likely could have come back, but did not feel in sync and choice to let it go and wait for Monday.

Well, today is Monday and I came back nicely recovering from that small loss for the day and moving into positive territory once again. There will be days that losses occur, that is just a fact of life, but they should not be large loosing days. Coming back from large losses is much harder and it can have other negative effects on a trader. The best is not to let a loosing day become a big loosing day, plain and simple.

Friday’s Session below with small loss for session

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Another Spot On Market Call

Tuesday, August 30th, 2011

Still on vacation till after labor day, but will post a larger chart of the days turns. At the bottom of the post, I will put up yesterdays market turns, again, this is a larger trade structure than I trade, but it can be traded by those members who choose to.

Another spot on market call;  Last Monday, 8-22-11, in my blog posting, I called for the market to hold in the current area, and rally. At the time, the close was S&P 1123. A confirmation to the first target will be triggered when 1140 is broken and it hit that next morning. I said that we would soon see 1220 on the S&P with that rally and today, towards the end of the day, we hit the target 1220.10.  Then we saw an immediate price rejection of the target and prices reversed immediately in the last few minutes of the day.

Calling the daily market is no different than calling the hourly, 5 minute, or any size tick or range chart. It is all the same as the stock market is fractal in nature in relationship to different sized charts. The moves are proportionate to your risk at each level. In addition, less trades are generated when you increase your time frame.

I don’t trade the larger time frames, but I always look at them even if I am just scalping for points. It is a lot less work as you increase you time horizon as well.  Many traders search for what is there dominant time frame, short term, intermediate, long term. Each of these are and can be different for every trader, but I feel you should trade in line with your dominant trading personalilty.

As you do, you will not be fighting the process with either over-trading or under-trading, as that will be apart of your trading strategy. You only have to stick to your plan and excel in what you do.

When trading, you have to create a frame work to work from. Market structure is built and price is and can be projected through three elements, time, space and energy.

I have written about this before, but it might be worth repeating. It all boils down to understanding and building that frame work or market structure. The three elements mentioned above are all apart of that frame work and that is what gives you the edge.

The elements when understood, in conjunction with each other, can show you exactly where price will go in many instances and a likely time for its arrival as well. This can be done with small tick charts while targeting 2 points on the S&P and or a higher time frame view for 10 points or more. You will always have to invest more time for the larger moves and your exposure is increased, for the shear fact that you are in the market, but that may be a traders style, to trade less and shoot for that higher profit/loss ratio.

I have trained myself to trade for short targets usually in the 1-5 point target range and that will depend on market volitility. I always trade at a minimum of a one to one trade ratio and have a daily stop out point so that I will never get a blow out day where losses are off the charts.  I like to get a daily target that is close to what my daily stop out point will be for any one trading session.

This is like having a 1 to 1 profit/loss ratio as it relates to the trading session. Having a loosing day of 3-4 S&P points will be overcome by just one normal regular session of gains that is equal to that. So, if you take a loss for the session, the next session puts you right back at where you were before the loss and you don’t look back.

I do look for on occasion those days where price action is telling me to take the easy and obvious trades for much bigger gains and point values. There, on those days, I can come away with 3 times an average daily goal, but I never really go looking for those days. They just come to me and I go with it.

It is a good idea to not trade for more than two hours at one time. Traders don’t really realize this, but there brain will begin to slow down, and the high level of concentration necessary to capitalize will get lost. There, is where traders get into trouble. Trying to come back when they are not at peak concentration levels. Mix in a little emotion and you have a receipit for disaster.

This is the area, traders fail to hold it together. Many don’t really understand why they put on the trades that they do, as when in this distructive mode, only until after the dust settles and they look on in horror.

How do you stop that from happening in the first place? That is a question I would bet thousands of traders would like to know the answer for. I will only give you a very basic answer to this at first and may continue it in my next post, but much of that behavior and losses, could be eliminated by only trading for smaller blocks of time.

If you are a position trader still within the course of the day, then you need to wait hours at times, for your one or two trades a day. There is not a lot you can do, since your trading opportunities don’t come often, but in the case of much smaller time traders, you need to zero in all your energy into a small block of time and get your points there. When you stay to long, out of greed, or any other reason, you are often times asking for it.

Traders will never understand every twist and turn of the market, but we need to weed out that which we do understand and capitalize on that and just leave the rest. Always trade the easy and obvious is a motto I say all the time, that will serve us all well as we trade our way through the markets.

Good Trading to all, Vince.            Monday’s larger picture view below!

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New Market Call

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

We are in a new market call I mentioned in my Monday post. I said that if we get above 1140 that we were going to see a good follow through in the coming days for prices to get up into as high as 1220 to 1250 area.

Currently on Monday we were at 1123 on the close and we now stand at 1175 or so at today’s close. So, in two days we moved up more than 50 S&P points which is about 500 Dow points on average.

The market could have tanked on Tuesday, but I thought the path for at least the short term was going to go the other way and said that. Over a week ago, I called the market top and the drop to a tie and explained it all to members in the daily training I send out. I said then that the market was likely to hold in the 1120 area and we would see a large bounce up with follow through for some huge gains to the upside.

So far so good and the rally continues. One thing I will point out right now is, the market sentiment took a big change. From yesterdays poll in “investors Intelligence” market survey, the bears jumped over 10 percent. They were only 23 % of the Professional Market News Letter Writers that were bearish a very small number and that jumped up over 10% to 33%.  That number had been stuck there for a long time and to see movement finally, is significant. In addition, the bullish camp dropped from a neutral area 46% down to 40%. This was coming off a 300 point rally in the Dow of which they must think it is a sucker rally and has no legs.  There weekly poll is on the close of every Tuesday. The closer it gets to 35%, will represent a full on buy signal in most cases.

We are not there yet, but maybe we are not going to see an extreme. Maybe  its just enough to get the bears to bit and get caught on a large snap back rally. That may be the case and so we will see.

I am on vacation right now, but still taking emails and answering questions. Don’t hesitate to make contact if interested and if not, I will be back into the full swing of things after Labor Day.

I have a screen shot of the full day below with a larger time frame and catching the larger swings as this model is set up for.  The method will give any member trader the same entries apart from the indicators all together, but they do a nice job of confirming the moves.

Trade well and committed, Vince

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