Archive for the ‘Market Call’ Category

Big Overnight Trade Completed Successfully

Tuesday, March 27th, 2012

Today is Tuesday March 27th, and all is well.

I will post my chart from the Friday carry over that I took. It was a stretch, in addition to being a little larger size for me, but I will have to say, it worked out great. I did cover just one contract on Sunday night for a 3.50 point gain just in case and still had only a 5 tick stop the whole way.

On Monday morning, I covered the rest of the position of 4 contracts, about 45 minutes after the open, just after a nice push higher still, for a roughly 14 point S&P gain. That was great and I was glad to get it. Again, that is something I don’t usually do, but the method did say that it was going higher with little interruption. Once it got going it moved with “gusto” to post new yearly highs.

In today’s market, we saw a continuation of that big move Monday, but a late day failure about 45 minutes into the close got the market coming off those highs.  That typically is a sign for some continued weakness in the next day or two,  just in a general sense.

Today’s trading was a flat day, with little movement when I started things up. I did not want to push it, as I just could feel that I did not have good patients to wait this market out. There were a couple of easy one point trades, but I only took a couple of ticks on each.  Tomorrow is a new day and hope to see some good movement with it. Good Trading to All!

Friday and Monday’s Finishing Trade;

Today’s Trades;

Market Top In or Very Close

Wednesday, February 15th, 2012

The daily stock market is very close to a market top and or if not, its very close. It is possible we may hang on for another week, but we are fast approaching D-Day, (decision day). For those who are riding the wave higher, attention should be in order. I won’t rule out a one last push higher, then reversal back down in the coming week, but its getting close, which is just my opinion.

A break of 12,700 with a close below that for the Dow, will likely have follow through to the downside of significance. On the S&P emini futures, a break of 1333 and a close below that number will likely see follow through to the downside as well. That is only just a few small points from where we closed today, so there is not much room before things start to change up for a while. In today’s trading, I was at it for 60 minutes and picked up a modest daily goal in the S&P emini’s. As you can see above, there were a few mild market swings before we saw a drop kick in during the New York lunch time.

It appears that the volume and movement is kicking up and think that this may be a good sign that we will see more market volatility coming.

Day trading helps with greater market volatility because the market swings are bigger and they occur more often, giving you more trading opportunities in a shorter span of time, all a plus.

We will see what happens tomorrow as we are on the edge. I would like to see one more week of stable to higher prices, but its not up to me. Either way, being able to scalp a few points out of the market is a great skill to have. You are never held up by the market, because one thing is for sure, that the market will move based on perceived values from those who drive them.

Good Trading to All !

Large Market Move Coming !

Friday, January 13th, 2012

Today is January 13th 2012 and things continued to move very well just about all day long as we loom closer to a very large market move coming, or not?

We are mid month into January of 2012 and facing some strong head winds. I will give you only my own opinion of what we should be aware of. Anyone with long positions should be very careful right now. This rally has dragged many a trader and investor to the long side of the equation if they liked it or not, but that may soon come to an end.

From mapping things out as I do, I could see a large sell off coming on as soon as Wednesday of this coming week. Again, this is only my opinion and not investment advise, so do your own research and make your own conclusions about market direction.

On December 14th, 15th, and 16th, I was calling for the market to bottom around the 1198 level and from there I said it would advance for several weeks and we did just exactly that.  If I remember correctly, I did say we could easily see 1300 area as major resistance and a target area.

In mid November I did think then we would hit that 1300+ area but we did not and fell back but before that did call the that huge rally up to that point. I don’t really trade the daily market, but I like to follow it, write about it and call it out as I see it. To me it is really no different than a small tick chart as the market is fractal in nature and will perform similar but in much different time scales.

I think the market has drawn in a good deal of traders and investors into this area for a very good reason; and what would that be?  To sell it off fast and furiously.

I don’t yet have any solid numbers on the down side but I think it will be at least 100+ S&P 500 points lower starting as soon as Wednesday of this coming week.

I know I am going out on a limb and I will be the first to say I could be wrong, but there are forces at work that are signaling this kind of drop coming. As I mentioned before, being able to read the market is a skill and it can be learned but you need to know the language. If you do, it can become invaluable to you as it can be applied to intra day data just the same. The daily price bars just take longer to play out, but it is still really all the same language.

All of the last three large market rallies (first week of October 2011/ Thanksgiving week 2011/ and the week before Christmas 2011/)  I have been bullish on and this one I feel is coming to a close for now. I know many traders were bearish months back and when it looked like it was going to crash, I was bullish and we turned up each time. Things are a little different and I will give updates on Monday and Tuesday as things come together as slight new highs would and or could be first expected. Wednesday will be a key day so we shall see.

I did no trading yesterday and was limited in time today but was able to get a session in. I was running out time before I needed to be somewhere else and did rush or push my trades along today, but it did turn out OK. I increased size a little on my last trade to make up for my needed daily goal but just before that, I did take two premature long trades for a -4 ticks and -2 ticks. The next longs were good but still pushed the first entry before it really confirmed.

Here you can see that the trading indicators do not line up with those early entries long and are not confirming. Many times I do and can see the turns coming, but I too need to wait or I risk up-wanted draw downs just like everyone else even if you do know the next move.

I was a little hurried in general, but I really can’t make any excuses. I don’t mind taking legitimate losses, but the ones that are human error do hurt a little more. Still a good day and Monday is a fresh start.

Good Trading to all, Vince

First Trading Day of New Year

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

Today is January 3rd 2012 and the first trading day of the year. I would like to start by saying that I hope everyone had a good Christmas and New Year. We can make this the best year of your lives if we so choose, in spit of what ever is going on in the world. Get focused, committed and follow your dreams.

On to the markets. The last market call I make before Christmas has continued to express itself as I said and thought it would, upppppp.

I mentioned in my last 3 posts in mid December, when after calling a daily turning point at S&P 1198 that we would then see the “Rally to continue for some time”, “the pressure was going to be on the upside in the day’s to come” and that “we would see a substantial upward pressure in the market and remain open minded as a market crash was not like right here”. It was nice to see that follow through and play out as I thought.

Today was my first day back after taking a good break and had a flat day. I took 3 trades but started very late in the day which I prefer not to do. You don’t leave yourself a lot of time if your only trading is late in the day and that was the case for me.

It could have turned out differently, but it is what it is. I feel, I was the problem for not hitting my goal today. I did need to exercise more patients and should not have not put that last long on. It was not a good spot on the chart and I did not really have the advantage. The last move short was what I mapped out while looking at the first short, but gave up on it, its all really fine as I get a fresh start tomorrow.

I did post a U-Tube Video of the whole day and can be seen by going to the video gallery on the front page of my website or you can look it up on U-Tube under “vinniemarlin”.  I sport fish for Marlin in Cabo San Lucas, thus vinniemarlin. OK;  that’s it for today, I wish you all well. Vince

Market Rally Called Perfectly

Tuesday, December 20th, 2011

Today is December 20th, 2011 and we saw the market rally called perfectly yet again with a powerful move as mentioned in my most recent blog postings, yesterday and Friday.

I said in Friday’s post that the market would trade down to S&P 1198 in Monday’s session and then turn sharply higher with a big rally. That is exactly what we saw so far and did mention that the rally is likely to continue for some time as well.

Today we saw the Dow Jones push higher by 337 points and the S&P up 36 points, both about 3% for the single session, now that’s a rally. I used many components of my trading method to come up with the 1198 number and was getting many confirming signals which all pointed to that area.

I will post a chart below so you can see the continuation of the call and move after wards. I did no trading today as I am taking the next few weeks off, but wanted to follow up with this call. I may put up a small post here or there between now and the 1st of the year to remind readers, OK the chart below.  Merry Christmas to everyone. Vince

Another Solid Market Call Completed

Monday, December 19th, 2011

Today is Monday December 19th, 2011 and I saw another solid market call completed with today’s 1198 S&P target hit with the early stages of the sharp reversal showing up as well.

In Friday’s blog posting I mentioned that we would see the S&P 1198 number hit, followed by a sharp reversal in prices and towards the end of the day we finally did see just that and in the after market the reversal back up is on. I did try and trade this with some success as I locked in a couple of early targets and held on to the last one for more. I did move my stop a couple of times deciding if I wanted to commit the whole day, which is not really my style, but I gave it shot.

I could not really complete it as I did try and add on to get the equivelent in the drop, but got stopped out on the add on.  Just after getting stopped out, the market turned on down towards the target area mentioned like a magnet and since reversed as I figured and wrote that it would in my last blog post.

The pressure is going to turn to the upside in the days to come as this wave down is completed. This is all my own opinion and not advise, but we should see upwards pressure coming back into the market and it could be substantial. Many think this market is going to crash, but having an open mind and looking both ways may be a better idea, but that is just me expressing my mind. If you feel differently, by all means follow your own strategy and method, but this is just my own analysis in the daily markets. The days trade below.

Typically, I would not be looking to take a position trade for the better part of the day, but found myself looking to that today. It is OK because I really had this in mind before I put it on, which is important. There were other good low risk scalp trades to be had but was trying to trade off the call I made on Friday.

The chart above is a larger clean chart of the whole day and part of Friday’s session. No indicators here again today as we trade the price first and still trying to make that clear for those who look on. If you want to see the smaller time frame view of past session look back to weeks and months past and you see every trading session as I trade with plenty to see.

That’s it for now. I will be taking the next two weeks off but may try and post something as a reminder if  I am lead to. Wish all my readers the best this Holiday season. Vince

Market Rallied on Called Number

Thursday, December 15th, 2011

Today is Thursday December 15th, 2011 and we did see a market reversal on cue from yesterdays call.

I stated yesterday that we would see a sell off early on down to the 1197 area and that would spark a nice rally. We saw that exactly, but the sell off came in the night session and we did rally significantly from that point, +22 S&P points right after. From there, we saw another sell off back down, but things leveled out and we stayed in a very narrow range for the rest of the session. I was looking for a regular session move to confirm the original early move to the number, but it did not come in time before the session ended, it may show up tomorrow?

In today’s trading session, I took roughly 5 trades and came out with a nice day in hand. I will have to admit I was reaching for today retest of the early numbers, that I called for and as mentioned it did not come in time. Still was sharp enough to close out some of the moves with profit locked in.

At the end of this week, I will be taking off from trading thru the Holiday’s and restarting in January, and was trying to beef up some gains today to make up for time off. I have enough confidence in the trading method that it would produce more if I kept at it and that would have been the case if we had some movement. Early on in the session we saw was some good moves and would have done well if I was there to trade it. Let me post the days trades and will continue below.

You can see the spike down early on in the chart as it hit the called area, within one S&P point. I was debating to call 1197 or 1198 yesterday and chose the lower number, but I will have to say that was a pretty good call overall, within one point.

To trade off of that would have been nice, but I was asleep as most us. I was looking for a retest in the regular session, but had to take profit on those 3 key area lows to lock it in as it was just taking it’s sweet time. I traded almost 4 hours today and that is way more than I have done in months.  I can only wait on the price action and take what it offers and that is what I did today. I don’t want to overly commit to a call or position that will cause me harm because things change and we need to be able to change with them or suffer.

I was not about to suffer today if I could help it and that calls for being conservative and not overly aggressive. I could take that aggressive stand more often and increase size at opportune times and come up with more, but have been content with the little I do, plugging away.  Maybe one day I will step it up.

There is plenty of time and find that I am still learning things about the market, as we all should be. No one arrives to a final destination as a trader. It is a constant evolution that continues its advance forward to more and greater insight. That is how it should be for everyone else as well.

Being a good day trader takes time. If you have a good method, a good mentor and some tools, you can cut that time down considerably. That could mean the difference between years and months. I know it has taken me the years side to get where I am, as I literally learned it all on my own. Lots of trial and error with a extra measure of error as is the case with many traders. I never bought or paid for anything trading related except a couple of books back in the 80’s and that is the truth. I am not saying that was a smart thing to do, but just sharing my experience. Thus, I have seen a lot over many many years and as mentioned am still learning.  This has shown me many things about the price action of stocks, index’s, option, futures, and currencies.
Everyone is in a different place and we can all see the allure that trading offers, but I feel traders who are starting out really need to go much slower than they do. It seems easy, but it rarely is. It may be simple in some respects, but that is met with the unseen challenges of us. We to often are our worst enemy when it comes to bridging the gap towards profitability. If we could take an equal amount of time for self-improvement in all area’s of life, you would see how much that would help your trading. This is the unseen sword that can slash us to pieces if we are not mentally prepared. On the other hand for those that see the essential benefit for taking action in this fashion, they are rarely disappointed for their efforts
That’s it for now, I will be back tomorrow for “the rest of the story”.

Markets Next Big Move Coming Soon

Sunday, November 13th, 2011

This post is for Friday’s session November 11th, 2011 where we saw the market take off to the upside early on and then died, as it went to sleep at the upper range for the rest of the day.

With the day being a semi Holiday for some, traders and investors started early and finished early. There was strong demand as the hours past so the market was range bound.

I started the day right as the market was quieting down and could see that it was going to be one of those days.  I took a few trades but they just didn’t have any punch behind them. Day’s like that, it is best to step aside and wait for better opportunities.

With that said, I ended it close to even, but just slightly down. The trades taken are below.

In the daily charts for Monday’s session, there is likely some resistance coming in at S&P 1277 and in Sunday evenings night session I can see that we are up to 1265 while coming off a 1270 high.  I do believe we will see that high mentioned in Monday’s session.

While doing a training video with my group on Friday, I did show and mention this 1277 S&P number as being a target and temporary resistance for the very short term. Possibly a slight pull back off that resistance and then a likely push over it with conviction would not be out of the question and in my opinion is even likely. Weeks ago, I mentioned either to my group or in one of my posts, that if the S&P 1280 got taken out, the next resistance would come in at around 1308. Now that we are on the verge of the next move coming, I would be looking to see the market trade to that next target. This is after a potential pull back for a couple of day as we come off the 1275/1277 highs still yet to be reached.

The bullish sentiment is increasing, but currently we are only in the middle of that range and that says there is more room to push higher, if the market agrees. The next push higher if it comes, will really cause a lot of pain for the bears who have put up with bull move for weeks, thinking, “this MUST BE  a bear market rally, it has to be”, and I would have to say, “says who”.

Those who think that it has to be have closed the door to what is happening and have closed there eyes to other possible scenarios. If you close your eyes to anything that contradicts with your already made up mind, how is that a good thing.

Having conviction can at times make you a lot of money, but it can also cause you to go broke as you insist to impose your will onto the markets. The market does not care what you think and will just assume see you hold on to the bitter end as you then throw in the towel out of desperation. That is what the market does, and those who say that this has to happen or that this must go down, are not thinking clearly.

I am sure many have large Put positions in place waiting for this to crash and maybe it will, but that was not the likely play over a month ago and it is not the likely play now.

The market rarely does what the masses think it will do and all traders and investors can take a lesson in that fact.

Stay open minded and don’t go to far out. Read what is and project that out into the future to see what is the likely path of price. Prices move on stored energy and that gets displayed as a reflected wave back onto the trading screens of those that look on. The price moves are a reflection of that stored energy as it gets displayed in waves of movements.

This can be very predictive if you know how to read the market. This takes time and a commitment to excellence which many are never able to achieve, but there is hope for the ones who don’t give up and look to learn first before they earn. It is in the learning that confidence builds. It is in the learning that fear can be removed and replaced with a humble healthy respect for the markets at which point earnings can take hold.  Where do you stand in the big picture and where do you plan to go?

Trade well, trade committed

Couple of Easy Trading Sessions

Thursday, November 10th, 2011

Today is November 10, 2011 and I will post yesterdays and today’s trading session below.

Above is yesterday’s session and below this is today’s.

I did not take many trades as I had pretty good gains in the trades taken. Daily goals made in both sessions but a little on the light side. I may find a good day next week to double or triple up for the day and stay well ahead of the curve, but we will see how the action unfolds.

I never usually start at the same time each day, as the day begins when I am alert and ready to look on.  I don’t really mind this relaxed approach as it subconsciously tells my mind that there is no hurry to try and make anything happen. The trades will be there when I am ready.  I really have not seen a day when they were not, so I find it best to relax and start my day when I am ready.

This does tend to give my confidence an added boost, because the natural response would be to eagerly be waiting and watching for the every twist and turn the market is making or about to make. I have learned that I don’t need to do that. The trades will be there as they are every day. I may miss some good big moves, but there are others just after it.

I find that traders are at there best if they don’t trade all day. In fact, about 2 hours or less is best, as going longer will open you up for unwanted mistakes. It is hard to concentrate all day long on which trades to enter and which to let go, which to hold onto for bigger gains and which to take for smaller scalps.

Every trader will do better to try and get in sync with the market and let it tell you what to do. Trying to hit home runs everyday, will cause you to strike out more times than you would find acceptable, so take it at a pace that you can sustain long runs of daily and weekly gains. That is the way a trader will build his confidence and take his trading to higher levels.

As far as the markets are concerned, I would be expecting today’s low in the S&P of 1218 to hold and move up from here. Resistance is clear at 1273 from many angles, but a break above that on a closing basis will send price much higher. One thing at a time, with a challenge of the above number mentioned a first if we are to see and expect higher prices. Keep in mind, October was the third best in history and now we are moving into the Holiday period.

There is more for the market to move as far as sentiment is concerned as we are just in the middle of the range. Those who follow me postings know what I am talking about. I called this huge historic move when everyone was extremely bearish. In the face of all the world wide trouble, who had the courage to see and call out in several sessions the direction of the market and get it right. I missed the bottom by two day down at the 1060 S&P area, but after that, it was clear sailing up to the 1280 area with a brief stop at the 1245, mentioned several times. These are huge percentage moves.

OK, we will see in next few sessions if we get the advance I am expecting and in addition if the 1218 S&P area holds.

Trade well, trade committed;  Vince

Main Market Move Completed in S&P 1280’s

Monday, October 31st, 2011

Today is Monday October 31, 2011 and want to catch up with a few missed posting. I will first put up the days I missed, Thursday,Friday and today’s.  I was out of town mid last week, but still was able to trade. Those and today’s results are below. I will recap the market under this.

Thursdays session;

Friday’s session;

Today’s session;

The market on Thursday last week, hit the high side of an area I had called for all of last month and now we have hit that in Thursdays session. I had called for the 1280 area as the upper target and resistance area for a likely bigger pull back from the October move, which was historic. I believe it was on track at one point last week to be the biggest and best October market move in over 100 years and that is surely saying something especially when everyone was calling for the market to crash, except me.

You can look back a month ago and since then, all along the way, that this market move was coming and a much more likely move than the crash everyone was looking for. Currently, we have hit some solid resistance and as mentioned a more meaningful pull back would be in order. After that, we shall see, because we are moving into a traditionally strong period of the year, November and December.

There are a lot of problems still with the agreed upon Bank Deal made in Europe and it can not be ruled out that it will all unravel into no deal, but I won’t go out on a limb with that one right now. We still do have some bearish extremes to work off and this week may do that if the market holds on to most of its gains from last week and beyond. Lets take that one day at a time for now, but this 1280’s S&P area has been hit and is very significant.

In closing, today’s trading was a bit tough as I allowed myself to get caught in a bunch of chop. Its really my own fault, as no trade would have been the better trade until things became more clear.

I did pull out daily goals for the last three sessions as shown above, but need to remember to be patient as we all need to be at times.

I will pick up this week with a few new postings in “Trading Psychology” and how we can make that work for us instead of against us, until then, good trading to all.