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Large Market Move Coming !

Friday, January 13th, 2012

Today is January 13th 2012 and things continued to move very well just about all day long as we loom closer to a very large market move coming, or not?

We are mid month into January of 2012 and facing some strong head winds. I will give you only my own opinion of what we should be aware of. Anyone with long positions should be very careful right now. This rally has dragged many a trader and investor to the long side of the equation if they liked it or not, but that may soon come to an end.

From mapping things out as I do, I could see a large sell off coming on as soon as Wednesday of this coming week. Again, this is only my opinion and not investment advise, so do your own research and make your own conclusions about market direction.

On December 14th, 15th, and 16th, I was calling for the market to bottom around the 1198 level and from there I said it would advance for several weeks and we did just exactly that.  If I remember correctly, I did say we could easily see 1300 area as major resistance and a target area.

In mid November I did think then we would hit that 1300+ area but we did not and fell back but before that did call the that huge rally up to that point. I don’t really trade the daily market, but I like to follow it, write about it and call it out as I see it. To me it is really no different than a small tick chart as the market is fractal in nature and will perform similar but in much different time scales.

I think the market has drawn in a good deal of traders and investors into this area for a very good reason; and what would that be?  To sell it off fast and furiously.

I don’t yet have any solid numbers on the down side but I think it will be at least 100+ S&P 500 points lower starting as soon as Wednesday of this coming week.

I know I am going out on a limb and I will be the first to say I could be wrong, but there are forces at work that are signaling this kind of drop coming. As I mentioned before, being able to read the market is a skill and it can be learned but you need to know the language. If you do, it can become invaluable to you as it can be applied to intra day data just the same. The daily price bars just take longer to play out, but it is still really all the same language.

All of the last three large market rallies (first week of October 2011/ Thanksgiving week 2011/ and the week before Christmas 2011/)  I have been bullish on and this one I feel is coming to a close for now. I know many traders were bearish months back and when it looked like it was going to crash, I was bullish and we turned up each time. Things are a little different and I will give updates on Monday and Tuesday as things come together as slight new highs would and or could be first expected. Wednesday will be a key day so we shall see.

I did no trading yesterday and was limited in time today but was able to get a session in. I was running out time before I needed to be somewhere else and did rush or push my trades along today, but it did turn out OK. I increased size a little on my last trade to make up for my needed daily goal but just before that, I did take two premature long trades for a -4 ticks and -2 ticks. The next longs were good but still pushed the first entry before it really confirmed.

Here you can see that the trading indicators do not line up with those early entries long and are not confirming. Many times I do and can see the turns coming, but I too need to wait or I risk up-wanted draw downs just like everyone else even if you do know the next move.

I was a little hurried in general, but I really can’t make any excuses. I don’t mind taking legitimate losses, but the ones that are human error do hurt a little more. Still a good day and Monday is a fresh start.

Good Trading to all, Vince

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First Trading Day of New Year

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

Today is January 3rd 2012 and the first trading day of the year. I would like to start by saying that I hope everyone had a good Christmas and New Year. We can make this the best year of your lives if we so choose, in spit of what ever is going on in the world. Get focused, committed and follow your dreams.

On to the markets. The last market call I make before Christmas has continued to express itself as I said and thought it would, upppppp.

I mentioned in my last 3 posts in mid December, when after calling a daily turning point at S&P 1198 that we would then see the “Rally to continue for some time”, “the pressure was going to be on the upside in the day’s to come” and that “we would see a substantial upward pressure in the market and remain open minded as a market crash was not like right here”. It was nice to see that follow through and play out as I thought.

Today was my first day back after taking a good break and had a flat day. I took 3 trades but started very late in the day which I prefer not to do. You don’t leave yourself a lot of time if your only trading is late in the day and that was the case for me.

It could have turned out differently, but it is what it is. I feel, I was the problem for not hitting my goal today. I did need to exercise more patients and should not have not put that last long on. It was not a good spot on the chart and I did not really have the advantage. The last move short was what I mapped out while looking at the first short, but gave up on it, its all really fine as I get a fresh start tomorrow.

I did post a U-Tube Video of the whole day and can be seen by going to the video gallery on the front page of my website or you can look it up on U-Tube under “vinniemarlin”.  I sport fish for Marlin in Cabo San Lucas, thus vinniemarlin. OK;  that’s it for today, I wish you all well. Vince

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Market Rally Called Perfectly

Tuesday, December 20th, 2011

Today is December 20th, 2011 and we saw the market rally called perfectly yet again with a powerful move as mentioned in my most recent blog postings, yesterday and Friday.

I said in Friday’s post that the market would trade down to S&P 1198 in Monday’s session and then turn sharply higher with a big rally. That is exactly what we saw so far and did mention that the rally is likely to continue for some time as well.

Today we saw the Dow Jones push higher by 337 points and the S&P up 36 points, both about 3% for the single session, now that’s a rally. I used many components of my trading method to come up with the 1198 number and was getting many confirming signals which all pointed to that area.

I will post a chart below so you can see the continuation of the call and move after wards. I did no trading today as I am taking the next few weeks off, but wanted to follow up with this call. I may put up a small post here or there between now and the 1st of the year to remind readers, OK the chart below.  Merry Christmas to everyone. Vince

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Another Solid Market Call Completed

Monday, December 19th, 2011

Today is Monday December 19th, 2011 and I saw another solid market call completed with today’s 1198 S&P target hit with the early stages of the sharp reversal showing up as well.

In Friday’s blog posting I mentioned that we would see the S&P 1198 number hit, followed by a sharp reversal in prices and towards the end of the day we finally did see just that and in the after market the reversal back up is on. I did try and trade this with some success as I locked in a couple of early targets and held on to the last one for more. I did move my stop a couple of times deciding if I wanted to commit the whole day, which is not really my style, but I gave it shot.

I could not really complete it as I did try and add on to get the equivelent in the drop, but got stopped out on the add on.  Just after getting stopped out, the market turned on down towards the target area mentioned like a magnet and since reversed as I figured and wrote that it would in my last blog post.

The pressure is going to turn to the upside in the days to come as this wave down is completed. This is all my own opinion and not advise, but we should see upwards pressure coming back into the market and it could be substantial. Many think this market is going to crash, but having an open mind and looking both ways may be a better idea, but that is just me expressing my mind. If you feel differently, by all means follow your own strategy and method, but this is just my own analysis in the daily markets. The days trade below.

Typically, I would not be looking to take a position trade for the better part of the day, but found myself looking to that today. It is OK because I really had this in mind before I put it on, which is important. There were other good low risk scalp trades to be had but was trying to trade off the call I made on Friday.

The chart above is a larger clean chart of the whole day and part of Friday’s session. No indicators here again today as we trade the price first and still trying to make that clear for those who look on. If you want to see the smaller time frame view of past session look back to weeks and months past and you see every trading session as I trade with plenty to see.

That’s it for now. I will be taking the next two weeks off but may try and post something as a reminder if  I am lead to. Wish all my readers the best this Holiday season. Vince

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Market Rallied on Called Number

Thursday, December 15th, 2011

Today is Thursday December 15th, 2011 and we did see a market reversal on cue from yesterdays call.

I stated yesterday that we would see a sell off early on down to the 1197 area and that would spark a nice rally. We saw that exactly, but the sell off came in the night session and we did rally significantly from that point, +22 S&P points right after. From there, we saw another sell off back down, but things leveled out and we stayed in a very narrow range for the rest of the session. I was looking for a regular session move to confirm the original early move to the number, but it did not come in time before the session ended, it may show up tomorrow?

In today’s trading session, I took roughly 5 trades and came out with a nice day in hand. I will have to admit I was reaching for today retest of the early numbers, that I called for and as mentioned it did not come in time. Still was sharp enough to close out some of the moves with profit locked in.

At the end of this week, I will be taking off from trading thru the Holiday’s and restarting in January, and was trying to beef up some gains today to make up for time off. I have enough confidence in the trading method that it would produce more if I kept at it and that would have been the case if we had some movement. Early on in the session we saw was some good moves and would have done well if I was there to trade it. Let me post the days trades and will continue below.

You can see the spike down early on in the chart as it hit the called area, within one S&P point. I was debating to call 1197 or 1198 yesterday and chose the lower number, but I will have to say that was a pretty good call overall, within one point.

To trade off of that would have been nice, but I was asleep as most us. I was looking for a retest in the regular session, but had to take profit on those 3 key area lows to lock it in as it was just taking it’s sweet time. I traded almost 4 hours today and that is way more than I have done in months.  I can only wait on the price action and take what it offers and that is what I did today. I don’t want to overly commit to a call or position that will cause me harm because things change and we need to be able to change with them or suffer.

I was not about to suffer today if I could help it and that calls for being conservative and not overly aggressive. I could take that aggressive stand more often and increase size at opportune times and come up with more, but have been content with the little I do, plugging away.  Maybe one day I will step it up.

There is plenty of time and find that I am still learning things about the market, as we all should be. No one arrives to a final destination as a trader. It is a constant evolution that continues its advance forward to more and greater insight. That is how it should be for everyone else as well.

Being a good day trader takes time. If you have a good method, a good mentor and some tools, you can cut that time down considerably. That could mean the difference between years and months. I know it has taken me the years side to get where I am, as I literally learned it all on my own. Lots of trial and error with a extra measure of error as is the case with many traders. I never bought or paid for anything trading related except a couple of books back in the 80’s and that is the truth. I am not saying that was a smart thing to do, but just sharing my experience. Thus, I have seen a lot over many many years and as mentioned am still learning.  This has shown me many things about the price action of stocks, index’s, option, futures, and currencies.
Everyone is in a different place and we can all see the allure that trading offers, but I feel traders who are starting out really need to go much slower than they do. It seems easy, but it rarely is. It may be simple in some respects, but that is met with the unseen challenges of us. We to often are our worst enemy when it comes to bridging the gap towards profitability. If we could take an equal amount of time for self-improvement in all area’s of life, you would see how much that would help your trading. This is the unseen sword that can slash us to pieces if we are not mentally prepared. On the other hand for those that see the essential benefit for taking action in this fashion, they are rarely disappointed for their efforts
That’s it for now, I will be back tomorrow for “the rest of the story”.

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Markets Next Big Move Coming Soon

Sunday, November 13th, 2011

This post is for Friday’s session November 11th, 2011 where we saw the market take off to the upside early on and then died, as it went to sleep at the upper range for the rest of the day.

With the day being a semi Holiday for some, traders and investors started early and finished early. There was strong demand as the hours past so the market was range bound.

I started the day right as the market was quieting down and could see that it was going to be one of those days.  I took a few trades but they just didn’t have any punch behind them. Day’s like that, it is best to step aside and wait for better opportunities.

With that said, I ended it close to even, but just slightly down. The trades taken are below.

In the daily charts for Monday’s session, there is likely some resistance coming in at S&P 1277 and in Sunday evenings night session I can see that we are up to 1265 while coming off a 1270 high.  I do believe we will see that high mentioned in Monday’s session.

While doing a training video with my group on Friday, I did show and mention this 1277 S&P number as being a target and temporary resistance for the very short term. Possibly a slight pull back off that resistance and then a likely push over it with conviction would not be out of the question and in my opinion is even likely. Weeks ago, I mentioned either to my group or in one of my posts, that if the S&P 1280 got taken out, the next resistance would come in at around 1308. Now that we are on the verge of the next move coming, I would be looking to see the market trade to that next target. This is after a potential pull back for a couple of day as we come off the 1275/1277 highs still yet to be reached.

The bullish sentiment is increasing, but currently we are only in the middle of that range and that says there is more room to push higher, if the market agrees. The next push higher if it comes, will really cause a lot of pain for the bears who have put up with bull move for weeks, thinking, “this MUST BE  a bear market rally, it has to be”, and I would have to say, “says who”.

Those who think that it has to be have closed the door to what is happening and have closed there eyes to other possible scenarios. If you close your eyes to anything that contradicts with your already made up mind, how is that a good thing.

Having conviction can at times make you a lot of money, but it can also cause you to go broke as you insist to impose your will onto the markets. The market does not care what you think and will just assume see you hold on to the bitter end as you then throw in the towel out of desperation. That is what the market does, and those who say that this has to happen or that this must go down, are not thinking clearly.

I am sure many have large Put positions in place waiting for this to crash and maybe it will, but that was not the likely play over a month ago and it is not the likely play now.

The market rarely does what the masses think it will do and all traders and investors can take a lesson in that fact.

Stay open minded and don’t go to far out. Read what is and project that out into the future to see what is the likely path of price. Prices move on stored energy and that gets displayed as a reflected wave back onto the trading screens of those that look on. The price moves are a reflection of that stored energy as it gets displayed in waves of movements.

This can be very predictive if you know how to read the market. This takes time and a commitment to excellence which many are never able to achieve, but there is hope for the ones who don’t give up and look to learn first before they earn. It is in the learning that confidence builds. It is in the learning that fear can be removed and replaced with a humble healthy respect for the markets at which point earnings can take hold.  Where do you stand in the big picture and where do you plan to go?

Trade well, trade committed

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Couple of Easy Trading Sessions

Thursday, November 10th, 2011

Today is November 10, 2011 and I will post yesterdays and today’s trading session below.

Above is yesterday’s session and below this is today’s.

I did not take many trades as I had pretty good gains in the trades taken. Daily goals made in both sessions but a little on the light side. I may find a good day next week to double or triple up for the day and stay well ahead of the curve, but we will see how the action unfolds.

I never usually start at the same time each day, as the day begins when I am alert and ready to look on.  I don’t really mind this relaxed approach as it subconsciously tells my mind that there is no hurry to try and make anything happen. The trades will be there when I am ready.  I really have not seen a day when they were not, so I find it best to relax and start my day when I am ready.

This does tend to give my confidence an added boost, because the natural response would be to eagerly be waiting and watching for the every twist and turn the market is making or about to make. I have learned that I don’t need to do that. The trades will be there as they are every day. I may miss some good big moves, but there are others just after it.

I find that traders are at there best if they don’t trade all day. In fact, about 2 hours or less is best, as going longer will open you up for unwanted mistakes. It is hard to concentrate all day long on which trades to enter and which to let go, which to hold onto for bigger gains and which to take for smaller scalps.

Every trader will do better to try and get in sync with the market and let it tell you what to do. Trying to hit home runs everyday, will cause you to strike out more times than you would find acceptable, so take it at a pace that you can sustain long runs of daily and weekly gains. That is the way a trader will build his confidence and take his trading to higher levels.

As far as the markets are concerned, I would be expecting today’s low in the S&P of 1218 to hold and move up from here. Resistance is clear at 1273 from many angles, but a break above that on a closing basis will send price much higher. One thing at a time, with a challenge of the above number mentioned a first if we are to see and expect higher prices. Keep in mind, October was the third best in history and now we are moving into the Holiday period.

There is more for the market to move as far as sentiment is concerned as we are just in the middle of the range. Those who follow me postings know what I am talking about. I called this huge historic move when everyone was extremely bearish. In the face of all the world wide trouble, who had the courage to see and call out in several sessions the direction of the market and get it right. I missed the bottom by two day down at the 1060 S&P area, but after that, it was clear sailing up to the 1280 area with a brief stop at the 1245, mentioned several times. These are huge percentage moves.

OK, we will see in next few sessions if we get the advance I am expecting and in addition if the 1218 S&P area holds.

Trade well, trade committed;  Vince

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Main Market Move Completed in S&P 1280’s

Monday, October 31st, 2011

Today is Monday October 31, 2011 and want to catch up with a few missed posting. I will first put up the days I missed, Thursday,Friday and today’s.  I was out of town mid last week, but still was able to trade. Those and today’s results are below. I will recap the market under this.

Thursdays session;

Friday’s session;

Today’s session;

The market on Thursday last week, hit the high side of an area I had called for all of last month and now we have hit that in Thursdays session. I had called for the 1280 area as the upper target and resistance area for a likely bigger pull back from the October move, which was historic. I believe it was on track at one point last week to be the biggest and best October market move in over 100 years and that is surely saying something especially when everyone was calling for the market to crash, except me.

You can look back a month ago and since then, all along the way, that this market move was coming and a much more likely move than the crash everyone was looking for. Currently, we have hit some solid resistance and as mentioned a more meaningful pull back would be in order. After that, we shall see, because we are moving into a traditionally strong period of the year, November and December.

There are a lot of problems still with the agreed upon Bank Deal made in Europe and it can not be ruled out that it will all unravel into no deal, but I won’t go out on a limb with that one right now. We still do have some bearish extremes to work off and this week may do that if the market holds on to most of its gains from last week and beyond. Lets take that one day at a time for now, but this 1280’s S&P area has been hit and is very significant.

In closing, today’s trading was a bit tough as I allowed myself to get caught in a bunch of chop. Its really my own fault, as no trade would have been the better trade until things became more clear.

I did pull out daily goals for the last three sessions as shown above, but need to remember to be patient as we all need to be at times.

I will pick up this week with a few new postings in “Trading Psychology” and how we can make that work for us instead of against us, until then, good trading to all.

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Market call still on course

Monday, October 24th, 2011

Today is Monday October 24th, 2011 and today, I will post Fridays trades and today’s trades below to start, with a few comments about the current rally.

First this is today’s trades below, with just under an hour of trading start to finish. The early morning hour had some good moves to it on the upside, as I came in as things were slowing down a bit. I tried to take what I could from the market and it worked out with 4 out of 5 positive trades for a pretty easy daily goal today.

On the one loss, I came in early and did not want to give the market more room and got stopped out -5 ticks.  I did re-enter at one tick better, for some gains, but was really just waiting for the long move which I saw was the bigger point trade. That proved to be right and so the days gains were in and time to go.

Friday, I had another daily trading goal met as well, but my first trades were off for no good reason other than it was just me who was off. I did come back with a few nice trades short but took me a little better than 2 hours. Unfortunately, I started late and was stuck with slow market action for a while and worked with what I had. Again, it turned out OK as shown in the screen shot below. If you click on the charts twice it will blow up for a full size view.

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The market has continued to bring shock and amazement to Wall Street with continued gains into much higher levels. I had been calling for this rally to continue and it sure has all the way from the bottom.

Everyone was calling for a crash weeks ago, but I was not. I did say that we would be looking at these higher prices just before the bottom and just after the bottom of S&P 1075. Currently we are at low 1250’s and hit a first of two strong resistance area’s I recently called. Today’s move satisfies the first one and we will have to see if the upper one keeps going but it is there.  There is resistance, but the market is swallowing it up to only push higher. The next stiff resistance area the market may be drawing itself up to is the mid to upper S&P 1270’s and as high as 1280 itself. That is extreme but it can’t be overlooked. Under normal circumstances, a pull back from the current levels would normal and natural, so be aware of that. The price action will have to dictate from here.

The market and world is somewhat on the edge and it is not generally a happy time, but all we can do is take it one day at a time. Long term, all the refinancing in Europe and elsewhere is only prolonging the day of reckoning. I am a long term bear, but just not yet.

In 2012, I would expect highly volatile  market conditions as things churn. More to come on that in the months ahead.

That’s it for now, sometime this week, I will continue where I left off in discussing market psychology and the day trader, until then good trading to all.

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Bulls Taking Short Traders Out – one day at a time

Tuesday, October 11th, 2011

Today is Tuesday October 11th, 2011 with just a quick update here today with the posting of my trades for the last three sessions at the bottom.  Yesterday was a Holiday, but the markets were still open, but with very light volume.

We have seen very nice follow through from the bottom made 6 days ago. I was off by one day in hitting the turn in this market, but was still very much bullish all the way through as can be seen in my writings in the days before the large advance.

Many traders and investors were calling for the bottom to drop out and I am glad to say I was not one of them. I said then, that the position I held was very unpopular and will catch many by surprise. It is only after the market has made a huge advance will some start to throw in the towel to admit they may have been wrong.

It is still early in the move, but there will be more, even if we get a pull back. The market did move right up to the 1190 area I mention in my last post as we seemed to have gotten that in yesterdays close. Today we held on to the gains and so we shall see.  There is a good chance that we don’t pull back much, and just continue on blowing past all the stops that are laid out like domino’s helping to push this market higher to wipe them all out.

The market rarely does what the masses think it is going to do and here is yet another example just as I previously wrote. The market has moved up over 11% in 6 trading days from the low and is by any stretch of the imagination a lot. There is more fuel in this engine, so if you are short just be careful. Getting a pull back from here would be normal, and again, many may just be expecting that and it might not come. What if they want in so badly, that they just start buying from fear of missing the big move. Well, that is going to continue to hit the buy stops that are set as protection to help limit traders and investors losses and thus the domino’s continue.

Currently, the daily market is up, the weekly down and monthly still up, by my analysis. Soon, all three will be up and those who are in the way, will get rolled over. Either way, just be careful.

I am not spending a lot of time in front of the screen as I have been doing other things important to me. If I can pick up my points for the session in 10 minutes, 30 minutes or 60 minutes, great. I just don’t want to be in front of the screen to long.

Today, I picked up my daily goal but was in early. I was leaving for a deer hunt, and only had limited time premarket and just a few minutes into the open. Just one crack at it and had to figure if getting in early was going to hit a 5 tick stop. It was just enough and scaled out into the open, done in 25 minutes.

Yesterday, I came up a little shy of my goal which is 2-4 S&P points a day. I try and shoot for the high side of that goal, but yesterday, the volume was real slow when I came into market and just settled for that.

Friday, I had a small loss, but not to much damage. It was not a stop out day, but I hung it up before it got to one, as my last trade was way off and so was I.

Let me post my trades and we can pick this up tomorrow as well as continue with where I left off in my recent training.

Today’s market trades Tuesday;

Yesterday’s trades Monday below;

Friday’s Trades October 7th below;

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