Archive for February, 2012

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Market Closes on Key Support

Wednesday, February 29th, 2012

Today is Wednesday February 29th and we saw a late day sell off that took the market down to some key support in the daily market. I was looking for 1362 in yesterday’s market but it looks like it came a day late towards today’s close.

The market sentiment has stayed the same again this week, but hovering at the high end of the range. We came very close in reaching a market extreme here, but backed off and now the same for the last two weeks. I would expect a bullish bias, until everyone is invested before a meaningful sell off gets started, but today’s closing numbers are very important. A break below today’s close will shift or slow at best the daily momentum.

I will post today’s chart of the day here first and will post yesterday’s under that and give a few comments afterwards;

Today, I took three trades and they were counter to the early morning drop that I missed. That has been typical, as I usually stat trading when I feel alert. I know I most often miss the easier price movement that takes place within the first hour to 90 minutes of the day, but I do have enough confidence in the trading method that I can still pick up what I am looking for within each session, which is usually between 2-4 S&P points.

I often have to remind everyone that the trading indicators are not the trading method, but they are consistent with it. There is a complete separate market rational for all the entries that don’t have anything to do with the indicators.

I usually mark what I call “turning points” on the screen and continuation points when they are appropriate. A trader, I feels needs to know what the price pressure points represent and how that is interpreted into tradable points. Taking what the market gives easily is a good strategy for long term success. Always shooting for the stars is nice, but it can often lead to frustration and mistakes.

With that said, there are lots of clues within the trading method to trade for bigger point returns. One can always trade the next series of time frames higher for fewer trades and higher reward, but you need to invest more time and patients to get that. That is usually more than I am willing to pay and so, stick to what I can take easily and safely when I am ready to trade.

I will post yesterday’s trades below; Tuesday February 28

Yesterday, again missed a few easy early morning trades but got stuck with a tight narrow range for some time. This did cause me to trade for much longer than I really wanted to. I did a few things wrong and a few things right and ended the session with a small gain.

You can see that the indicators do a fairly good job of identifying where the market turning points are but this again is a reflection of the price. The price is always first and is what is traded. With that said, not every signal as shown is a strong buy or sell and that goes for every day. Some show stronger turning points than others and some are to be avoided. All of that is within the method and not the indicators, as they will not tell you that, but the method will.

Tomorrow is another day and hope to start a little earlier so I can finish earlier, sounds like a fair trade off, but we will see, until then good trading to all.

Vince

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Last Two Trading Sessions

Monday, February 27th, 2012

Today is 2-27-12 and I will post my last two trading sessions below.

I found today a bit frustrating as I started after we had a very large run up. Many times, the range tightens up after such a move and today was true to form. I did still come out OK with a small gain on the day, but not really to happy with it. I took a bigger stop than normal on one trade and later picked the top of the session with an hour to go. Many would see this as a good entry and by rights it was, but its not the kind of trade I look for in a regular session.

Friday’s session just a couple of trades while I was on the road visiting family. An OK session with a modest gain also for the day. The charts below.

Friday’s session;

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Follow the Market not your Emotions

Thursday, February 23rd, 2012

2-23-12; The market is still holding on and above support. Day’s back I gave some support numbers and we still remain above them and so the long term rally is still intact.

The market sentiment has backed off as well, giving some additional room for the market to advance in the face of this sentiment. Until we reach an extreme, the market is likely to continue to advance. This rally has lasted much longer than many have believed. This is all for the daily market and not a very big deal as it relates to day trading, but its always a good idea to know where you stand in the big picture.

In today’s trading, I started late, which is pretty typical, and missed the good moves from the morning session. I traded for 90 minutes and that is somewhat a limit for me. I really don’t like to stick at it for hours. It is too easy to get tired and make mistakes.

I have the turning points marked out as I usually do with a very nice trade at the low of the day, which just kept on going. That left me with the scraps at the top of the range where I started, but I won’t cry about it as I can only take what the market will give when I choose to trade it. Knowing how to read the price action per the trading method is the key and you can’t take what is not their.

Click on the chart and see the notes and the days action. I came up a little shy of a minimum daily goal but that is OK. I little more tomorrow and or one day next week will take care of that, no worries.

This is the beauty of day trading, as each day has its beginning and end with a new day again tomorrow. Leaving the past behind you, even if it is a great day. If you take your success into the next session, it can infuence your trading decisions and I believe it should not. The same is true for any losses, don’t take them with you into the next session. It is really best to let each day stand on its own merits, good – bad – or indifferent.

Traders need a base of operation to start each day. A frame work to follow that will hold them back when needed and get them to act also when needed. A point on the screen to trade towards and the flexibility to change with the conditions.

When builders set out to make a house, they always have blueprints and plans to follow. This allows them to start from a baseline that is consistent and neutral, but from that, they have to access the foundation and its conditions. Is it on a hill, near a river, on rocky soil?

This all relates into market conditions. Are we in a trending environment, is there overhead resistance where prices have had previous barriers or is there a clear path for unabated price movement.

From that, traders need to adjust to that current environment or take losses. We can never insist on our will or what we want, because the market does not care what we want. If anything, it is designed to take what you want away from you and leave you frustrated and will to often leave you with more losses.

This is the reason why I wrote earlier about each day standing on its own. The same could be said about each trade as well. It is not an easy thing to do, but if you can get just this one point from this article, you could make some improvements in your own trading.

Many have heard the term, losses beget more losses. This means that the last trades are having an impact on the next trade and it is negative. So you start out the next trade from a negative bias, with a little frustration built in, shaken not stirred for an emotional cocktail that leaves you spinning in the end, and you guessed it, more losses.

Let each trade stand on its own, be strong in mind not to let a mistake or natural trading loss get you effected one way or another. Don’t let yourself get to high with your gains and to low with your losses. If you can trade as close to an emotional flat line, you will then be making progress in that area.

We all have the ability, but we need that home base to trade from in the beginning, so we can repeat the process again and again. Refine your trading method or find one that you feel comfortable with and build on that. Don’t get emotional one way or another and keep moving forward, that is how winning is done, one day at a time.

Good Trading to all, Vince !

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Trading Towards “Trade to Target”

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2012

Today is Wednesday February 22nd, 2012 and will only have time to post my trades from yesterday and today. I am traveling this week visiting my son who is off to Europe for 2 years. Very proud of the boy, who is a electronic engineer working for ASML.  He will be working on two (2) forward generation of computer technology.

Anyway, did not mean to get side tracked, but I will post yesterdays trades first and then today’s. Just two trades yesterday with good gains towards a nice, “Trade to Target”. Click on the chart two times to enlarge the screen to full size.

Today’s trades for Wednesday February 22nd below;


A little choppy action early on, but there was a nice move down towards another “Trade to Target” and as I am writing, a good turning point for a move right off that area took hold up and then again, a nice short is right at the end of screen. That’s all I have time for today, so until tomorrow; trade well, trade safe. Vince

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Trading Lesson: How to Handle Trading Losses

Saturday, February 18th, 2012

Thursday and Friday, February 16th and 17th I saw two day’s of small losses, -2 points and -1 point.  I was just not in sync and it shows. Two small losses are better than large stop out days, of which is 4 S&P points per session max. If I am making poor decisions it is best to let the day go and wait it out. That is what I did and for that I am content. I can make that up this coming week if the market gives me an opportunity. I should not hunt for trades but need to remember to let them come to me. That is good advise for everyone as well.

When the market is acting well, that is the time to either trade a little heaver and or trade for additional points. It is a lot easier to make up any daily goal shortfall on a session that you are seeing things as they are and not as you want them to be.

This is a good lesson for me and for those working through their own trading method. I am happy with the fact that I did not overly try and get even or go ahead when it was not the time to do it. On Thursdays session, I had my chance with the last trade entry as it was a very good runner for 5-6 points. I was it at the right timing but somehow I talked myself out of the trade and even then went short when the method said not to do either one.

That is a clear sign that “I am the problem” and trying to trade through that, can do more damage. The best thing a trader can do it let it go and close it up, which I did. That is a victory in itself and I see it as such. Being down only 2 small points and not doing any additional damage is a very good thing. Losses happen to everyone, but its what you do with those losses and how you handle it.

Some traders can not handle loosing trades and loosing days, but we better learn to accept it. If we put our self worth as a trader into every trade and or every trading session, you will create a barrier for yourself that is almost impossible to overcome. For many, this is all they might need to do in order to adjust themselves towards profitability.

So much of this is tied to the mental aspect of trading and often overlooked, which is the reason why I bring it up. Dealing with losses is a difficult matter, but it need not be. The blockage comes from your own expectations of what you feel you should have gotten but did not. Thus, a let down and negative self worth as a trader can easily creep in.

If you don’t allow yourself to tie your performance in any one session to the big picture performance, than it is just a small loss that can be make up in another session or just kick it out and keep moving forward. This is one of the hardest things for traders to do, because they will get all to consumed with the fact that they make to many mistakes and thus create more mistakes.

That which you hate the most is what you invariably and overwhelmingly drawn to. Think about that for a moment….

It can very easily become a self fulfilling prophesy, as traders make the same mistakes over and over again. Why is that so?  Another good question and worth a moment of pause to reflect within.

The decision is often up to you, believe it or not. If you know how to trade and have an OK method to follow, many times it is just the negative self image a trader hold deep down within himself that he is not even aware of, that subconsciously pushes himself towards a self sabotage mentality.

I know many know exactly what I am talking about because it has happened to most traders across the board sometime in there trading career.

These things can be overcome but a strong will and determination to first address it and then take action as described is a start to turn things around. I tell you this because its true, even though it may hurt. Often, the truth does hurt, but when you embrace it, rather than run from it, you are taking the steps towards recovery and establishing a solid foundation.

That is one of the best ways I can describe it. Building a trading foundation that looks within just as much as the outward expression that is tied to your actions of pulling the trigger. You need both to be successful. Having one without the other will eventually express itself towards the least common denominator and that is towards ones weaknesses. The market is always looking for personal cracks in your trading armor. Seeing and exploiting your weaknesses where ever they may be. A lack of patients is very common and one that gets many traders over and over again.

Premature entries draws on fear of lost opportunities and causes entry before its time and so on. I could talk for days on all of this, because I to have lived it. Its learning how to deal with it and stay in control at all times and again this is found within.

I write this for myself just as much as I write this for those who follow me. This is my way also to remind myself of the many truths I have learned and a nice way for me to express it and help a few others with similar issues along the way.

With that in mind, I hope it has helped. I will post my trades below for the last two sessions and look forward to a better week.  Trade well, trade committed!  Vince

Friday’s Trades:

Thursday’s Trades:

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Market Top In or Very Close

Wednesday, February 15th, 2012

The daily stock market is very close to a market top and or if not, its very close. It is possible we may hang on for another week, but we are fast approaching D-Day, (decision day). For those who are riding the wave higher, attention should be in order. I won’t rule out a one last push higher, then reversal back down in the coming week, but its getting close, which is just my opinion.

A break of 12,700 with a close below that for the Dow, will likely have follow through to the downside of significance. On the S&P emini futures, a break of 1333 and a close below that number will likely see follow through to the downside as well. That is only just a few small points from where we closed today, so there is not much room before things start to change up for a while. In today’s trading, I was at it for 60 minutes and picked up a modest daily goal in the S&P emini’s. As you can see above, there were a few mild market swings before we saw a drop kick in during the New York lunch time.

It appears that the volume and movement is kicking up and think that this may be a good sign that we will see more market volatility coming.

Day trading helps with greater market volatility because the market swings are bigger and they occur more often, giving you more trading opportunities in a shorter span of time, all a plus.

We will see what happens tomorrow as we are on the edge. I would like to see one more week of stable to higher prices, but its not up to me. Either way, being able to scalp a few points out of the market is a great skill to have. You are never held up by the market, because one thing is for sure, that the market will move based on perceived values from those who drive them.

Good Trading to All !

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Today’s Trades part 2

Tuesday, February 14th, 2012

Today is Tuesday, February 14th and I will just be posting my trades again today. The price movement looked OK today and can see that this afternoon things picked up. I do have the turning points for most of the day in the chart below, so you can see how it looks per my indicators. (click on the chart 2 times to blow it up to full size)

I often like to clarify, that the trade indicators is not the trading method, which exits completely separate. Knowing which trades are better and what makes up those possible turning points is essential to being prepared to trade them. It certainly adds and or puts the odds in your favor when you know what you can expect from each move so you can target your exits, which is apart of the trading method.  I wish you all the best. Vince

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Today’s Trades

Monday, February 13th, 2012

Today is Monday, February 13th 2012 and a quick post of my trades for the day. Tomorrow, I hope to write a little more, as far as where we are in daily market and the larger overall market trend, so come on back for that. Until then!

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Creating your Trading Plan

Friday, February 10th, 2012

Today is Friday February 12, 2012 where the market had a very large opening gap to the downside. We later stabalized and mounted a couple of rallies, to get some of the losses back.

The daily market is still in an uptrend and it would appear that we could see slightly higher prices or at least not any lower prices than today’s low as per the S&P emini futures.

In today’s trading I did well at roughly 2 to 3 times my daily goal. A couple of trades I came in early, but did see clearly what was coming, a strong benefit from being able to read the price action.  If one waits for that trading edge, you have very little to worry about as you will be looking at green right after entry, which is always a good feeling. Let me post my trades from today below, before I carry on to much further.

Acting on “The Trading Edge”

Day trading is a great way to make a living. You have the free time after you have your points for the day to go and enjoy other things life may have for you. There is more to life than trading, but I don’t want to try and convince anyone about that. We are all different and have different dreams and goals.

To make the dream become a reality, every trader needs to have a “trading edge”. Without it, you will be left with guessing and that is no way to move into this venture. It then becomes more like a gamble and the odds are really then no better. It is possible to come out on top most trading days, but you really need that personal trading plan that is combined with a solid trading method. If you don’t have both, you are leaving it up chance.

Creating your Trading Plan

A personal trading plan is important and is I believe different than your trading method. That plan, is all about you. It is tailored to your goals, your time invested, your objectives in point totals as they relate to time invested in the markets. These are all separate from the trading method you trade. Many may not have thought about it that way and that is why I mention it today, for your benefit.

Every trading method is unique to the one using it. I know that my method, “Sniper Day Trading” is no different. I trade differently than many of my members, but that does not make one better than the other. I like to scale out of trades and don’t mind getting out a little early on some, to make it a little easier to stay in for more.

That is different, in that there are those who like to go, “all in”,  “all out” and that is OK. Thus, my point for having a personal trading plan as it relates to the time you have to sit in front of the screen each day.

If you really want to take fewer trades, but want a higher risk to reward ratios, then you will have to exercise your patients and wait and wait. If you can do that with no problem, that is great. Many times traders can do better by taking fewer trades but for bigger returns. If you can sit through the down time, then a different plan may be better for you. That is why this part is tailored to you and your trading strengths.

There is a lot of controversy over good risk reward ratio’s, but the one that counts is the one that you can do consistently and be profitable with. I don’t think it is a good idea to trade for anything less than a 1:1 trade ratio, which just means that your risk is equal to your reward on any given trade. It does not have to be a totally hard rule, but it should make up the bulk of your trades as such, or better.

In the Sniper Day Trading method, I do have that trade ratio present or better. I will risk 1 point for 1 point at times, and that is fine, because I know if it is good method setup, I will hit it most often. Two of those and that could be a conservative daily goal for some.

Being able to read the market in a pure price action way, is really where you will find that “trading edge”. Getting good at it will instill confidence and give you the courage to put the trade on without fear. If you do experience trading fear, before you pull the trigger, you need to settle down and practice a bit longer.

Trading from a position of fear will take your edge away and you will be reactionary at best. It only gets worst from there, when you have highly charged emotions in the game. Separate yourself from the money and focus on doing the right thing. Don’t worry about the results. Try and shorten your targets to help instill that winning frame of mind and don’t worry if the move goes higher from there.

Be sure you have a daily stop point, if you are not trading well. Never let a modest days loss become a wipe out. You are the one that has control over that and it will keep you alive for another day when more favorable market conditions are present.

Day Trading is very personal to each participant. It can be one of the hardest things you have ever done, but you can choose to make it easier on yourself by getting educated, put time on your side to practice and instill confidence and create your personal trading plan that will put over the top.  I hope this advise will help some on their journey.

Trade well, trade committed!  Vince

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Today’s Trades February 9th, 2012

Thursday, February 9th, 2012

Yesterday’s trades;  Got a late start and missed out is all I can say.

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