Archive for 2011

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Stock Market Hits A Wall

Thursday, December 1st, 2011

Today is Thursday December 1st, 2011 and the Stock Market Hits A Wall as we ran into that overhead resistance I talked about in my last blog post.

A very decisive moment is coming within the first 2 hours of tomorrows session. If we break 1241 on the downside, I think we will see a lot of selling coming in. If we break the 1250 level, we could see a continuation of the recent rally. It would be more normal for the market to pull back for a few days before trying to attempt to break today’s highs and with that we will have to wait and see.

Overhead resistance is when the market has reached a point on the charts where sellers have overtaken the buyers to such a degree that it has to go down. There is no buyers at the asking price and the adjustment downwards quickly comes in to reflect the lack of interest at those levels. Today, I am sure that the protective stops have been place just above today’s high in an attempt to sell the market and profit on the downward move. The protective stops are regular buy orders that will trigger open market orders to buy if the price were to breach today’s highs. Many have placed there orders and will wait for a sell off to profit on the downside. They have positioned themselves for a longer term play that could last 1-3 days. If they are right, a big pay off will await, but if wrong, there stops will act like fuel for a continuation to the rally as they will be buyers in the open market which will add and or trigger additional stops at higher levels.

That is what we saw in the almost 500 point Dow move the other day. It happened in the night session where the volume is lighter and easier to push the prices in one direction or another. A chain reaction happened pushing prices up and up until it reached an area that it could not overcome and that was early on in today’s session.

It would be move normal for the market to pull back and work off some of the exuberance from the last few days, but we will have to wait and see. A very nice setup has been put in place with today’s price action and it is very clear to see. How the market will react in the opening hours of tomorrow session will give the insight into the next move.

A move back down to S&P 1200 would normal and natural and believe that will be the expected target if the break is to the downside. After hitting 1250 in today’s session and currently at 1243 that is a big move.

On the other hand, if we move up over the 1250 area with conviction, it could trigger the buy stops by those position traders and will add lots of fuel to push the market still yet higher. As mentioned, time will tell.

In today’s trading, I did not have a good day. It happens and today was one of those days. I was just plan off all the way around. I had three small losses and hit my daily loss limit for the day. The trades and screen shot are below.

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Market Rally +400 on Dow Jones

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

Today is Wednesday November 30th, 2011 and we saw the market rally +400 on Dow Jones, with the bulk of it coming in the night session.

That kind of a move is very nice to see, but it did leave most traders with little left to trade as the range began to narrow. Currently the market is still open with about 2 hours to go so there could be better action for those afternoon traders.

I did restart my trading today, with just very modest gains. I took 4 trades with three of them profitable. The second trade took care of the first trade with a little extra as I did add on and the next two added to that for as mentioned a modest gain for the day. Just a little over an hour on trading which is OK.  I really don’t like trading for multiple hours at a time. I am sure I could make more points if I hang in there, but I could make mistakes and have to struggle to come back and so on. I am sure many know what I am talking about.

When market conditions are favorable, that is when it could be OK to stretch it out a little. When the range is narrow and movement shallow, there is no need to push it. Early on after the open, things were much better, but after the first 90 minutes many are just finishing there day. That happened to be the top in the market and just when I started, a little more tricky. My trades and the first hours of the market action below.

Trading in the S&P emini’s can be simple, but it is rarely easy. Above are just a few small scalp trades that netted me a little better than 2 points. I look for 2-4 points per session and can go weeks at a time hitting that. Every trader needs a plan and a solid method to follow. I show a limited version of my screen as the indicators are just a reflection of price and my trading method. The price is always first and a traders ability to read it is key. These custom trading indicators are a nice way to tell you if you are early, late or should not even consider taking a trade. The color change is often a possible get ready indication that a turning point may be coming. Conditions need to be met for a strong buy at those area’s as some trades are better than others.

Yesterday, I mentioned I would go over the daily market and what we could expect in the weeks to come. I know Europe is on a tipping point and the market has corrected from its initial blast off from the market lows of early October, which leaves us coming back up towards overhead resistance. There is a little upside before that resistance firms up, which will be the ultimate test. Yesterday I wanted to write about this upside resistance being tested as we are doing today, but chose to skip it.

The market sentiment has pulled into a neutral area which does leave room for more upside in the weeks ahead. With last weeks large pull back, the sentiment continued to climb. With the market advancing the last couple of days, that lead me to think the bullish bias would continue, but it back off a bit instead. That leads me to believe that some skepticism did come back and will be what is needed for the market to overtake the overhead resistance we are approaching. Currently the market sentiment for the bulls is in a neutral area.  All very interesting stuff.

That’s it for now. Good trading to all.

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Today’s First Hour Turning Points

Tuesday, November 29th, 2011

Today is November 29th, 2011 and I have today’s first hour turning points mapped out as shown below in the S&P emini futures.

The market had a little follow through from yesterdays huge run up in the opening hours of the session. Things settled down with some selling pressure coming in later in the day.

Tomorrow, I will do a bigger report on where the daily market may be headed and how much upside is left in this market, but for now will just post a screen shot of today’s first hour turning points as mentioned above.

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving, Vince

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Smooth Trading Days

Monday, November 21st, 2011

Today is November 21st, 2011 and am traveling is S.F. Bay Area visiting family, but still got in a little trading.

I took four trades, all for gains and ended with a very good daily goal and in a little over an hour of trading. I also took three trades on Friday, two a little earlier in the session and one late. The late session trade short was my recovery trade and a little bigger in size as well. No trading on Thursday last week. Below are today and Fridays trades and are as marked.

Friday’s Trades Below;

Well, in the daily market I was wrong in looking for prices to hold and move higher. The break came to the downside first and will be looking for prices to firm up in this general area. There is some support in the area and we could see a fairly quick turn around in the weeks ahead.

The world is in a crazy state of affairs these days. The news is off the hook with everyone looking at Europe to see if things are going to stabilize. The long term answer to that is a definite no. The situation if it firms up will only be temporary and the end result is still going to be the same. They are all just going through an exercise to take the next step, which I won’t really comment upon to greatly since it is just my opinion. The aftermath will be a loss of national sovereignty and a large new block of govern-ship will emerge. What that will all look like, I don’t really know, but again this is just my opinion and like I said, I will keep that to a minimum. The long term will get a lot worst and it will spread to the U.S. Change will happen that is for sure, but it may not be what most welcome.

So, lets see in the days and weeks to come if they take the market up to only eventually take it down, time will tell. I will go a little more into this tomorrow, so for now, trade well and safe.

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Today’s Early Price Action

Wednesday, November 16th, 2011

Today is Wednesday November 16th, 2011 and we saw a nice smooth day with good action and a big hard sell off just before the close of the session.

I was long gone from today’s late sell off, as I only put in about 20 minutes into the market total and was in on the two trades I took for a total of 15 minutes.

Today, the market gave me what I saw was a quick easy point and took it to start things out, followed up with a several point advance to the top of the last contract sold in today’s action. Daily goal met.

The market had put in a large gap opening, hoovered around the bottom of that range and shot up to close the gap. I was not present for the first burst up, but wish I was as that was an easy powerful trade. The ones I took were not difficult but posed more risk than the first one coming off the bottom. It all worked out well and was satisfied to close up shop early. Yesterday I was able to make up for the previous day and so, am pretty much on track for the week.

Two days to go before we enter the Holiday week of Thanksgiving where things can become a bit slow in the later part of the session. The best action will usually come early on, so I hope I am up and ready for that then.

Late today, it seems that there was news out about the banks and how they may have troubles if Europe does not get there act together soon. The ratings agency will be having to downgrade the banks and that is bad news for Wall Street.

The market is reacting to every statement with today a perfect example. The thing is, the technical side of the market is still playing itself out and it can almost be said that the technicals are driving the news.

The market is at a tipping point and so, look for news to come out tomorrow that will boost the market to keep it alive within the context of this current rally. That is what I was just saying that the technicals could be seen as driving the news. It is a bit odd, but I think that is possible. Lets see tomorrow if some strong news comes out to bolster the market so it does not crack on its own weight as it is in that key area where support should come in if it is going to survive.

I think the market will survive and make one last push higher over its last high of S&P 1280, into 1308 or so. If that does take place, it would be a huge short squeeze and the towels will all have been thrown in, then the market may go down, again, we shall see.

The first thing is for the market to hold on and not make any significant new lows for the rest of the week.

That’s it for now, be back tomorrow for “the rest of the story”.

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Valuable Trading Lesson

Tuesday, November 15th, 2011

Today is November 15th, 2011 and was a good trading day, not because of points made, but was a nice regrouping from yesterdays loss. The method is there to follow, and when I don’t follow it, it becomes a gamble on it working or not.

You could see in yesterdays posting, that I took some non method trades. The indicators are only a reflection of the method, but a good way of seeing if one is following it or not. If you are going off the reservation, it will be clear to see and when you are on track, that is also clear to see.

Today, I got back on track as it has been weeks of modest daily gains before this. Losses happen, but they don’t have to induced by lack of patients, or lack of allowable trading time. If one does not have enough time to trade, it can be best to not trade. I need to remember that, as that was my downfall yesterday. I did not want to take the time to wait out the market to best get into position that would allow me to get the trading advantage on my side of the table and it cost me. It was just a few point loss on the day, but that is not the point. I could see I was off and for the fact of me stopping, I get an extra bonus for that and makes up for my mental short comings at least in my mind. Let me post today’s trades below before I get to far along.

Just three trades here, with the first one a 5 tick loss. That is really not a problem as it was an acceptable loss for the entry taken. You can see a reverse signal and that is my confirmation that a stop there was appropriate. The move was a last ditch effort by the market to take out the shorts before it actually does go down. My re-entry was spot on and I did not hesitate as the shorts were right in taking the market down.

It was all in the bigger picture to take the market down, so that it could then take it up higher in a big way as shown. I did miss that next wave up as I was doing a training video for my group as things were developing. I can honestly say, I missed the move as it just got past me. The secondary move higher, was caught as I could clearly see higher prices and did point that out in great detail in the training video I was just finishing up.

The market did move higher after my last exit and that is OK.  I don’t have to get it all and enjoy selling into strength a lot more than selling into weakness.

In a recap of the daily’s, we did get the second day of pull back early on as the market sold off in the night session and again just after the open, only to then recover and move higher on the session modestly.

The market is now in a position any time to make that next move. It could go either way and I won’t say it can not go down, but I do have a bullish bias and would not be surprised to see things resolved to the upside. We always have to remain open minded, which is what allowed me to see the huge reversal at the bottom of the market 6 weeks ago or so.

The same thinking will allow me to accept and see that the resolve could yet again be to the upside, to the complete and utter amazement of the masses and guru’s.  We need to learn to think for ourselves, to see for ourselves, and then trade for ourselves. If we become dependent on others to lend us insight and that means even me, we will not be helping ourselves long term. I think it is fine to get different opinions from others, but that should not be the only thing we do to see what we should be learning and calculating on our own.  If you just don’t know how to go about that, then that is a legitimate concern and there is no fault to bear.

To make trading progress, we need to learn and gather insight from the market as it relates to a proven methodology that will be consistent over time. Next is to not overlook what we are going to do to ensure that we have the ability to follow that trading method and execute it in a way that leaves us profitable.

To do that, we need to always work on ourselves and uncover any mental weakness and replace it with mental fortitude and determination. That can only come by facing the hard cold facts that traders don’t like to face the facts. Are you willing to see what your trading weaknesses are and do what ever you have to change that within you to get the desired goals you aspire to achieve?   Many would say, Yes; but the truth is they are not willing to face those issues and change. It is a lot easier to blame past trading troubles on the method, system, the market, or any other outside factor but ourselves.

In order to take your trading to a higher level, you need to look within. There you will most often find the answers that you seek. Yes, you need a solid trading method, and without it, you will be lost, but you also need everything I just mentioned above as well. I respect my readers enough to tell them the truth.

You may have a good enough trading method as you stand today and all that is needed is the inner strength to maintain control, to follow your personal trading plan as it relates to you.

I had a nice reminder from a member this evening of this simple fact and feel compelled to share that. We all need a personal trading plan within our trading method to succeed. Find yours and you could be on your way.

Trade well, trade committed, Vince

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Stock Market is Marking Time for Next Move

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Today is November 14th, 2011 and the market started its pull back as mentioned in yesterdays blog post, but did not reach the 1277 area as mentioned. The market had risen 10 S&P points in the Globex night session to 1271 and came up a little shy of the number mentioned. The main point is, after the pull back off the highs, the retracement is now in place. The key area’s to be aware of are the 1220 area for support and the 1277 area as resistance.  A break of either one of those numbers will be significant and we should see some strong follow through in either direction.

I do have a bullish bias going into this week, but a break of the 1220 area would bring in a lot more selling, so that number is key for the bulls to hold on. Wednesday or after, looking for a break up above 1277 area to 1308 as the next resistance, so we will see. I am and will be open minded to any changes, but this is just an overview of the daily market. The smaller moves within the day are the ones that we trade and the ones that count.

In today’s trading, I did not make my daily goal as I was not willing to wait out the market for fresh views. Other than Friday flat holiday session, this is my first daily loss in a long time. A small loss of around 2.50 points which is not really a big deal, but it happens. I had a nice first trade but did not see things as they were for the trades following. After a few bad trades, I decided to let it go and look for a fresh start Tuesday. My trades below.

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Markets Next Big Move Coming Soon

Sunday, November 13th, 2011

This post is for Friday’s session November 11th, 2011 where we saw the market take off to the upside early on and then died, as it went to sleep at the upper range for the rest of the day.

With the day being a semi Holiday for some, traders and investors started early and finished early. There was strong demand as the hours past so the market was range bound.

I started the day right as the market was quieting down and could see that it was going to be one of those days.  I took a few trades but they just didn’t have any punch behind them. Day’s like that, it is best to step aside and wait for better opportunities.

With that said, I ended it close to even, but just slightly down. The trades taken are below.

In the daily charts for Monday’s session, there is likely some resistance coming in at S&P 1277 and in Sunday evenings night session I can see that we are up to 1265 while coming off a 1270 high.  I do believe we will see that high mentioned in Monday’s session.

While doing a training video with my group on Friday, I did show and mention this 1277 S&P number as being a target and temporary resistance for the very short term. Possibly a slight pull back off that resistance and then a likely push over it with conviction would not be out of the question and in my opinion is even likely. Weeks ago, I mentioned either to my group or in one of my posts, that if the S&P 1280 got taken out, the next resistance would come in at around 1308. Now that we are on the verge of the next move coming, I would be looking to see the market trade to that next target. This is after a potential pull back for a couple of day as we come off the 1275/1277 highs still yet to be reached.

The bullish sentiment is increasing, but currently we are only in the middle of that range and that says there is more room to push higher, if the market agrees. The next push higher if it comes, will really cause a lot of pain for the bears who have put up with bull move for weeks, thinking, “this MUST BE  a bear market rally, it has to be”, and I would have to say, “says who”.

Those who think that it has to be have closed the door to what is happening and have closed there eyes to other possible scenarios. If you close your eyes to anything that contradicts with your already made up mind, how is that a good thing.

Having conviction can at times make you a lot of money, but it can also cause you to go broke as you insist to impose your will onto the markets. The market does not care what you think and will just assume see you hold on to the bitter end as you then throw in the towel out of desperation. That is what the market does, and those who say that this has to happen or that this must go down, are not thinking clearly.

I am sure many have large Put positions in place waiting for this to crash and maybe it will, but that was not the likely play over a month ago and it is not the likely play now.

The market rarely does what the masses think it will do and all traders and investors can take a lesson in that fact.

Stay open minded and don’t go to far out. Read what is and project that out into the future to see what is the likely path of price. Prices move on stored energy and that gets displayed as a reflected wave back onto the trading screens of those that look on. The price moves are a reflection of that stored energy as it gets displayed in waves of movements.

This can be very predictive if you know how to read the market. This takes time and a commitment to excellence which many are never able to achieve, but there is hope for the ones who don’t give up and look to learn first before they earn. It is in the learning that confidence builds. It is in the learning that fear can be removed and replaced with a humble healthy respect for the markets at which point earnings can take hold.  Where do you stand in the big picture and where do you plan to go?

Trade well, trade committed

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Couple of Easy Trading Sessions

Thursday, November 10th, 2011

Today is November 10, 2011 and I will post yesterdays and today’s trading session below.

Above is yesterday’s session and below this is today’s.

I did not take many trades as I had pretty good gains in the trades taken. Daily goals made in both sessions but a little on the light side. I may find a good day next week to double or triple up for the day and stay well ahead of the curve, but we will see how the action unfolds.

I never usually start at the same time each day, as the day begins when I am alert and ready to look on.  I don’t really mind this relaxed approach as it subconsciously tells my mind that there is no hurry to try and make anything happen. The trades will be there when I am ready.  I really have not seen a day when they were not, so I find it best to relax and start my day when I am ready.

This does tend to give my confidence an added boost, because the natural response would be to eagerly be waiting and watching for the every twist and turn the market is making or about to make. I have learned that I don’t need to do that. The trades will be there as they are every day. I may miss some good big moves, but there are others just after it.

I find that traders are at there best if they don’t trade all day. In fact, about 2 hours or less is best, as going longer will open you up for unwanted mistakes. It is hard to concentrate all day long on which trades to enter and which to let go, which to hold onto for bigger gains and which to take for smaller scalps.

Every trader will do better to try and get in sync with the market and let it tell you what to do. Trying to hit home runs everyday, will cause you to strike out more times than you would find acceptable, so take it at a pace that you can sustain long runs of daily and weekly gains. That is the way a trader will build his confidence and take his trading to higher levels.

As far as the markets are concerned, I would be expecting today’s low in the S&P of 1218 to hold and move up from here. Resistance is clear at 1273 from many angles, but a break above that on a closing basis will send price much higher. One thing at a time, with a challenge of the above number mentioned a first if we are to see and expect higher prices. Keep in mind, October was the third best in history and now we are moving into the Holiday period.

There is more for the market to move as far as sentiment is concerned as we are just in the middle of the range. Those who follow me postings know what I am talking about. I called this huge historic move when everyone was extremely bearish. In the face of all the world wide trouble, who had the courage to see and call out in several sessions the direction of the market and get it right. I missed the bottom by two day down at the 1060 S&P area, but after that, it was clear sailing up to the 1280 area with a brief stop at the 1245, mentioned several times. These are huge percentage moves.

OK, we will see in next few sessions if we get the advance I am expecting and in addition if the 1218 S&P area holds.

Trade well, trade committed;  Vince

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Each Trading Day is New Beginning

Tuesday, November 8th, 2011

See bottom of the article for last weeks trades: I have been having computer virus issues on my desktop and lap tops and had to resort to a third computer. Hope to get back on track with daily postings very soon. Thanks for your patients.  Below is an article I did last week and could not get it posted until today. Hope you enjoy it. Vince

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As a trader, each day is a new beginning. If we have the ability to separate the past from the present and then remain neutral on into the future, than that is a great statement. That is usually not that easy for most people, no matter the profession, but is it possible?

The answer to that is a big “Yes”.  It may not be that way for most people and thus traders, but it still remains a very strong possibility for those who can find within them the ability they need in order to do just that.

This is internal strength of mind to follow through with what YOU KNOW to be true. We may think many things but when we know something is true, that is were conviction comes from and when it is found.

The reason that is so, you act without hesitation and act knowing that the likely future outcome will take place as foresaw. That is a gift for those who get that far, but its not going to automatically take you where you want to end up.

Getting to where you want to go as a trader takes a little more. You need to act on only that which you KNOW TO BE TRUE and just leave the rest for the speculators. That is then what they do, but not us. The stock market is not random as some would suggest. It is a living and breathing entity and is made up of the collective minds of millions of people across the entire globe.

If you were to catch a closer look inside and see what they were thinking and planing well in advance, would that not be worth the price of admission. Traders leave a trail behind them as they make there way through the arena. Those worthy of interest, will rise to the top of the list. Where some gather, more are drawn and then you have a fully invested market filled with a multitude of idea’s.  Those idea’s that rise to the top are the ones that control the field.

Trading is a very interesting world. It has a strong allure, but its rewards are reserved for those that can go beyond the masses. What does it take to arrive at a place that sets you apart from the rest of the world?  It takes the ability to see things not as they are, but as they will be. You need to be a bit of a visionary in that, seeing where the price is likely to go, based on very similar conditions from the past. The past will always lend insight into the future. Those who fail to learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. Where have we heard that line before?

This can all be summed up with what is called a trading method. If you don’t have one, you need one. You can not leave your action up to random events, as they will only influence you to and fro, leaving you lost and confused. If you are new to trading and have not found that place yet, it may be coming soon. No one gets untouched from the sting of the markets as you learn.

Maintaining mental control as it relates to ones trading plan is the key for continual trading profits. If you are not sure, and have doubts, don’t trade. You should practice longer and apply the continual trading lessons that are sure to come your way. In time, your exposure can give insight, but not having the mental fortitude to follow through will just as well leave you as helpless as the one who does not know.

Get with the mental side of the game and gird up yourself to be worthy of the challenge, as not doing so will only leave you morally defeated. It all starts with a thought. You have the power to control your mind and make it follow your lead. If you leave yourself open to every inviting suggestion, then you will be sunk.

We as humans are predictable just the same as successful traders who are collectively able to move the markets, we have the ability to think as the masses think and look to do the opposite. Those results are often very duplicatable and what successful traders look for, thus giving them the undeniable trading edge.

Look for the trading edge as a large part of it is within you.  Trade well, trade committed !

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Below is last weeks trades missed and today’s late trades, no trading yesterday.

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