Today is Monday October 31, 2011 and want to catch up with a few missed posting. I will first put up the days I missed, Thursday,Friday and today’s. I was out of town mid last week, but still was able to trade. Those and today’s results are below. I will recap the market under this.
Thursdays session;
Friday’s session;
Today’s session;
The market on Thursday last week, hit the high side of an area I had called for all of last month and now we have hit that in Thursdays session. I had called for the 1280 area as the upper target and resistance area for a likely bigger pull back from the October move, which was historic. I believe it was on track at one point last week to be the biggest and best October market move in over 100 years and that is surely saying something especially when everyone was calling for the market to crash, except me.
You can look back a month ago and since then, all along the way, that this market move was coming and a much more likely move than the crash everyone was looking for. Currently, we have hit some solid resistance and as mentioned a more meaningful pull back would be in order. After that, we shall see, because we are moving into a traditionally strong period of the year, November and December.
There are a lot of problems still with the agreed upon Bank Deal made in Europe and it can not be ruled out that it will all unravel into no deal, but I won’t go out on a limb with that one right now. We still do have some bearish extremes to work off and this week may do that if the market holds on to most of its gains from last week and beyond. Lets take that one day at a time for now, but this 1280’s S&P area has been hit and is very significant.
In closing, today’s trading was a bit tough as I allowed myself to get caught in a bunch of chop. Its really my own fault, as no trade would have been the better trade until things became more clear.
I did pull out daily goals for the last three sessions as shown above, but need to remember to be patient as we all need to be at times.
I will pick up this week with a few new postings in “Trading Psychology” and how we can make that work for us instead of against us, until then, good trading to all.
Today is Wednesday October 26, 2011 and will just post my trades from today, as I am taking a little road trip. You may want to see yesterdays posting as this early posting will jump over yesterdays.
Today, I could have used a little more patients as I have gotten used to quick finishes lately. Its not always going to work out that way, especially if one, (me) tries to rush it. I need to remember there is no hurry as that would have served me well today.
I had two early losses, followed by a small gain and yet another loss. I almost gave it up for the day as I was at my loss limit for the session, but did give it one more entry after settling down and seeing the big picture. A sharp sell off and then a fast reversal back up, was on the menu and I did get it just right for an 8 S&P point gain at the top and last of my contracts.
I missed the big short just before this as I was getting out of a long, which was the wrong side of the market. It all worked out with daily trading goal in hand.
Getting ready for a road trip to San Francisco, 316 miles one way. I hope to trade tomorrow morning on my lap top for a few minutes, but I will have to wait and see.
Today is October 25th, 2011 and tomorrow is likely to filled with some additional trading anxiety as the world awaits on the banking decision in Europe.
No deal will likely have a chilling effect, but the opposite is what the market is expecting. Which way will it fly? My take is that they will put something together that will sound good and will only be a temporary fix, as all the other attempts have been, but this may sound good enough to keep everyone happy for a little while longer. Once the reality of the deal sets in, it will become clear that it will not be sustainable and the bottom will drop out. When and at what level will that be, no one really knows just yet, but it could easily be from higher levels.
Short term, I mentioned yesterday that the next level of resistance for the upside was at 1175-1180 area on the S&P. If we get there, we could expect more of pull back than we have seen recently, but it has to get there first. Currently, the market is taking in the resistance level that we just ran into at the 125o area previously called and has backed off. I see some support in this small pullback around the 1215 area and currently at 1230 in Globex night session. A bigger deeper drop below that will trigger a lot more selling, so I think that is a level to watch.
In today’s trading, I hit my daily goal in 30 minutes of trading, start to finish. I turned on the computer and turned it off for the trading part of my day, then I did a few training video’s of the mornings previous action, the current action and on to what to expect for the rest of the session. Let me post my trades below.
As traders we don’t really care which way the market goes, but that it goes. A drop usually happens fast than a rising market, but what ever the market throws at us, we will be able to take advantage of price action as it unfolds.
The rest of the week will be filled with increased volatility so if you are looking for big moves, we should see them one direction or another. What ever your trading method, wait for what looks like the “easy and obvious” and you will do much better than trying to grab every twist and turn.
Today is Monday October 24th, 2011 and today, I will post Fridays trades and today’s trades below to start, with a few comments about the current rally.
First this is today’s trades below, with just under an hour of trading start to finish. The early morning hour had some good moves to it on the upside, as I came in as things were slowing down a bit. I tried to take what I could from the market and it worked out with 4 out of 5 positive trades for a pretty easy daily goal today.
On the one loss, I came in early and did not want to give the market more room and got stopped out -5 ticks. I did re-enter at one tick better, for some gains, but was really just waiting for the long move which I saw was the bigger point trade. That proved to be right and so the days gains were in and time to go.
Friday, I had another daily trading goal met as well, but my first trades were off for no good reason other than it was just me who was off. I did come back with a few nice trades short but took me a little better than 2 hours. Unfortunately, I started late and was stuck with slow market action for a while and worked with what I had. Again, it turned out OK as shown in the screen shot below. If you click on the charts twice it will blow up for a full size view.
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The market has continued to bring shock and amazement to Wall Street with continued gains into much higher levels. I had been calling for this rally to continue and it sure has all the way from the bottom.
Everyone was calling for a crash weeks ago, but I was not. I did say that we would be looking at these higher prices just before the bottom and just after the bottom of S&P 1075. Currently we are at low 1250’s and hit a first of two strong resistance area’s I recently called. Today’s move satisfies the first one and we will have to see if the upper one keeps going but it is there. There is resistance, but the market is swallowing it up to only push higher. The next stiff resistance area the market may be drawing itself up to is the mid to upper S&P 1270’s and as high as 1280 itself. That is extreme but it can’t be overlooked. Under normal circumstances, a pull back from the current levels would normal and natural, so be aware of that. The price action will have to dictate from here.
The market and world is somewhat on the edge and it is not generally a happy time, but all we can do is take it one day at a time. Long term, all the refinancing in Europe and elsewhere is only prolonging the day of reckoning. I am a long term bear, but just not yet.
In 2012, I would expect highly volatile market conditions as things churn. More to come on that in the months ahead.
That’s it for now, sometime this week, I will continue where I left off in discussing market psychology and the day trader, until then good trading to all.
Today is Thursday October 20, 2011 and want to first post a video of the trading day. I started out a bit rough, with a couple of losses early on as I tried to wake up for the open. I don’t know or think that helped me, but it is what it is.
In the video above, you can see I was a little off in my third series of trades and felt like I was trying a bit to hard. In looking back, I really just needed to relax and not have in my mind making up for yesterdays stop out day.
With that in mind, I did see a big trade brewing and was in it with a market order short, and all was really OK, but it was taking its sweet time before cracking open. I did allow doubts to creep in and take my big trade away from me for what appears to be no good reason and will be the basis for my discussion and follow up in this series of trading psychology issues that traders face on a daily basis.
I did get the second half of that big move, as the market did move exactly to a “trade to target” that was called. Scaling out along the way made it easier to hold to the bottom and is taking the conservative approach to the move. I did send off a training video to members pointing this all out ahead of time and did continue in the call saying that the bottom would be 1193 in the S&P, followed by a very big move up. It all came down exactly as described and is a good feeling to see it played out as such.
Our thoughts control our actions as it all starts with a thought. The thought of me trying to make up for losses, did lead me to enter early on some trades here today and that is not a good thing. The market will do what the market does and we as traders need to go with that flow. Forcing trades is trying to impose your will on the markets and will not change anything except create a little frustration and some unwanted loses.
It starts with a thought, the thought to get a better price, the thought to get in early so you don’t miss the move, the thought of making up loses, etc.
If the thoughts are not healthy, then it will produce bad fruit. If on the other hand it is healthy, it will do what it is designed to do, produce gains that are with little struggle.
Day trading should not be mentally strenuous event, but it should be something you enjoy. If it becomes a battle every day, it will soon send a message that there is something wrong and that will send unwanted hidden messages from your brain to your soul, (mind, will and your emotions).
So, when trading and looking for what makes up a good trade, you should be relaxed and not uptight. If you are able to breath and relax and then wait, the move will come to you. You don’t have to go hunting for it. If you miss one, that is OK, the next one will be along shortly.
If you miss a trade, don’t fret about it, as that is the most easiest thing to do. To dwell on something you can not change, you end up creating a stack of emotions that will find its way into your next trade. Again, this started from an unwanted emotion, but that emotion gave birth to the feeling by “thought”. When the thought comes to mind, you will only get in trouble when you act on that thought and be entertained by its lure, especially if it is from a bad tree.
How do you judge if the thought is good or bad? Well, you need to have trading discernment which can be cultivated over time, but most of the thoughts you will know right away if it is good or bad.
If the thought is telling you to pull your stop, you know that is a bad thought. If it is saying, re-enter the trade and it is your third attempt on forcing the trade your way, that is a bad thought. If you get a hard lock on market direction and miss the easy trades in the opposite direction, you know those are bad thoughts.
We should all be familiar with our weak spots, so if it comes up in a thought, we will be ready to dispel the bad thought and replace it with the truth. This all may sound a little simplistic, but I will tell you, it is some of the most important things you could learn as a trader.
It is so easy to get into a emotional tailspin and not be able to get out of it. We should never allow ourselves to be or get into that kind of position. We have the power to choose. Don’t forget that. We choose all the time to act or not to act, to move or not to move on a trade. In choosing what and when to act, this too comes from thought and should be healthy thoughts that line up with our method to enter the market.
You don’t get rid of negative trading thoughts by not trying to think them, (because you will only think of them more). You overcome them by choosing the truth and keep choosing the truth, until the negative thoughts are drowned out completely, replace by the trading truth as per your method.
If traders want to improve there trading performance, then the above message will be a very good tonic. It is hard, not easy to do the above and it takes first courage to face these kind of issues, but progress is won by doing the hard things. Taking the easy road is the path the masses take. We need to separate ourselves from that group and rise to the top and fulfill our trading dreams, that to starts with a thought.
Today is Wednesday October 19th, 2011; We saw selling pressure off the recent highs for a second time in two days, and may be a sign short term that we may be in order for a pull back and or pause.
The world is a crazy place right now with so much going on in Europe and uncertainty at every turn, one would wonder why the market would go up in the face of that kind of environment. For some, this is just a reaction rally in the context of a bear market and for others they don’t have a clue. There is still yet another group, those that are open minded to a bigger move in the works in the face of all this craziness. Which one is right? I am leaning on the upside and have been for three weeks now all before this move started. One day at a time.
As day traders, it really does not matter what direction the market goes, but it is a good exercise to take part in.
In today’s trading, I had a stop out day where I just stopped trading. I have a spot where I have to stop and stick with that because if I did not do well enough to hit my daily trading goal, then there is a problem. Usually the problem is with me and not the method or price action. Today it was me and that does happen. I do have some consolation in the fact that it was me but really I am way past that point now, because I have seen the trading method perform in hundreds of sessions with no disappointment. My trades below and then will continue below.
A little after 7 a.m. West Coast, there were three nice easy long trades that would have made things a little easier for me, but I can not complain. I have not had a stop out day in a long time. I did get caught in a bit of chop, but again, it is my responsibility to wait through that and take better trades and I did not. The kicker was my last trade which I just lost it. That told me very clearly, I was off today and my judgment can not be trusted a clear sign that I should stop.
So I roughly have a -4 S&P point deficit for today and that can be made up in another session where things are more in my advantage.
I often think, if I would get up and be ready for the open, I would have the time to scope out the bigger picture much better and have the read time I need to see where things are likely to be going for the session, but I rarely do it.
I start when I am up and awake enough to trade and that has been fine for a long long time. I have my own discipline issues to overcome and getting to sleep early is one of them. I don’t often do it as I just seem to be predisposed to staying up late. I often think what it would be like to live on the East Coast.
In order to really be alert enough for trading and doing all the morning tasks that need to be done before sitting down, I would have to get up around 5 a.m. to be ready for the open at 6:30. If turning in at 12 or 1 is routine, that is not likely to happen.
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Yesterday I was quoting a writer for the early 1900’s James Allen. He is not a trader, but a famous writer. One of his writing’s “As a man Thinkith” has been the inspirations for many of the modern day motivators and life coaches. I quoted a couple of lines from his book yesterday and will continue with that where I left off…… I have done about 5 or 6 sessions now on this and you can look back to recent articles to see the others.
“Not what he wishes and prays for does a man get, but what he justly earns. His wishes and prayers are only gratified and answered when they harmonize with his thoughts and actions. In light of this truth, what then is the meaning of fighting against circumstances? It means that a man is continually revolting against an effect without, while he is nourishing and preserving its cause in his heart. Men are willing to improve there circumstances but unwilling to improve themselves.”
This is a section I copied from yesterdays post which is from James Allen book and I will continue my comments below.
Our wishes and prayers will only come to pass when they are in line with our dominant thoughts and especially our action. You first need the thought to get the action, so both are needed to get the results. If we are not willing to do what is required of us as traders, what makes us think we deserve the rewards that we seek.
We will only get that which we earn and trading profits are earned just like any other job. It does not come easily as many may think, so you need to be protective, but at the same time don’t choke it to death. You need to relax and give yourself room, but again, don’t let yourself drown, because then you die.
This can summed up in trading discipline. Those that can exercise it, will be around for a long time, pulling resources out of the markets. Those that can’t, I don’t need to explain.
Again, this all starts with thought and the ability to follow the right thought. If you follow and take the easy thoughts, they will likely lead to astray. Trading and doing the right thing at the right time is not easy. Many see what the right thing is, but still have huge blockage to get it done. Why is it like that for traders more often than not?
The reason is they have no mental plan for how they will react to the wrong thoughts. The action is to see that you are being lead astray and stop it. Just stop. Don’t do it, that is the wrong easy trade. The right thing will be hard to do and you will be met with internal opposition. Are you prepared for that?
Succeeding is hard, failure is easy. So you now know you need to do the hard vs easy thing while trading. More to come tomorrow as I will try and get right into it.
Today is Tuesday October 18th, 2011 and we saw more of the same as I have been pointing out for over two weeks. The market continues to defy those who are expecting this thing to drop and today a very nice reversal from yesterdays pull back on to yet again new highs. S&P 1245-1250 is an area of some resistance, but that too may just be temporary.
We are almost out of the September/October danger zone and now soon looking at November/December which are traditionally good months for the market. One day at a time here for now.
Let me post a still shot of just the one trade I took today that was good for 2, 3 and 4 points. I could have traded more and looking back at it, would have been a good day to do that, but I said I was done early on and I want to stick with what I say as a discipline for myself. The last two trading sessions were for over 2 hours and wanted to not do that again today. Below the still shot will be a U-Tube video of the whole day pointing out all the turning points as shown on the screen. The indicators will most often line up with the method, not the other way around, so keep that in mind if you watch it. We trade a complete method with rules to follow and that will tell us what to do and when to do it, with the indicators confirming the method.
In continuing from where I left off last week on addressing the power of the mind as it relates to your thinking and thus trading, it is always a good idea to watch what you think about and change those thoughts that are not supportive of your goals.
Doing so, will most often enhance your trading results, because every trade starts first with a thought. If you are listening to competing forces, you will be confused at best and suffer unwanted losses.
I will continue to quote a writer from the early 1900’s James Allen who wrote a piece called “As a Man Thinkith” and will just get right into it below.
“Men do not attract that which they want, but that which they are”.
“Not what he wishes and prays for does a man get, but what he justly earns. His wishes and prayers are only gratified and answered when they harmonize with his thoughts and actions. In light of this truth, what then is the meaning of fighting against circumstances? It means that a man is continually revolting against an effect without, while he is nourishing and preserving its cause in his heart. Men are willing to improve there circumstances but unwilling to improve themselves.”
OK, I pieced a couple lines together but want to point out, a few things as it relates to our trading. If we have bad trading habits, that we just seem unable to shake, what are you going to do about. It has a root, somewhere in your mind that causes you to keep doing that which you don’t want to do and again, I say, what are you “willing” to do about it. Those that are willing to take action and get to the root of that problem, will start to overcome the setbacks that derail you again and again.
Go to the beginning, your mind, where all your thoughts, feelings and emotions are housed. There you need to see what is causing repeated mistakes and limiting beliefs about yourself to succeed. Remember, James said, that men do not attract that which they want, but what they are. So, what are you, within? Only you can answer that, but it starts with how you see yourself in its basic form. If you see yourself as always getting it wrong, you will do just exactly that, get the trade, timing, entry all wrong without you even being aware of it.
You can want to be succeful as a trader all day long, but that is not going to change anything. What will change things, is what you do about changing your limiting beliefs to empowering beliefs about yourself. You will need to re-program your mind to support new success. That is not always easy as many don’t have a clue on what that looks like.
I touched on this a little in a previous post, and will just give you a quick idea of what you can do to change that. Make a list of all the things you would like to do as ” a professional trader”, not as you currently are but as you see yourself becoming.
As a suggestion, write it down and speak in the first person.
1) I will always set a stop at the point of entry on every trade.
2) I will never move my stop down, but only in the positive direction of the move.
3) I will take my losses and live with them and improve where I can as losses are apart of trading.
4) I will always protect my trading account in a professional manner and take only the trades that are within my trading method.
5) I am a wise and disciplined trader and I only do the things that a wise and disciplined trader does.
These are only a few suggestions and again, they are in the first person, for you to increase the ability for your mind to accept them as for you. “I Will” is a powerful statement about that which you will do, not hope to or would like to, but “Will Do”. Come up with your own and write them out, repeating them before and during the trading session.
Don’t wish and pray that a trade works out while in it, that is sending the wrong signals and will be seen as coming from a position of weakness. Put your trade on and expect positive results as you have come to expect them from doing the right thing at the right time. If you don’t know what that is, then you need to first get your trading method clearly defined. If you need a method, then you can always contact me, but lets assume you have it.
When you are up in your trading account, you earned that. Don’t ever think that it is free money and you can afford to give it back or take unwarranted risk with it, because it came easy. Again, wrong thinking and that will create a clear path for you to only reverse the process as you will find a way to give it back, knowingly or unknowingly.
OK, I need to end it here, but will pick it up in my next post. Trade well, trade committed. Vince
Today is Monday October 17th, 2011 and will just be posting my trades from Friday and Monday with limited comments. I plan to continue writing where I left off last week so those looking for more of that, check back tomorrow as I will try and get my post up early.
Today’s market saw a healthy pull back before hitting 1232 in the Globex night session, with limited damage to the loss of momentum. Tomorrow will be an important day to see if the market can shore up the weakness. Overall, we will see higher prices, even if in the short term the market pulls back more from here. World events do look a bit scary out there and one could understand traders bearishness, but we will need to work off more of this bearish tone before that will happen and the easiest way to do that is for the markets to go up.
Friday’s Trades below and today’s will be under that, both days with good gains and daily goals.
Today is Tuesday October 13th, 2011; The S&P was flat today and Dow down slightly, holding onto all of its recent gains so far.
A short term target on the upside would be around the 1245/1250 area in the S&P, at the same time there is room in the market to fall back if it wants to and still be OK with the large picture move underway. This is still a reaction to the overall drop of the last few months and working its way back to the middle. If we do see the upper range as mentioned in the days to come, there we will almost certainly see strong resistance and some kind of meaningful pull back. How the market handles that area will say a lot as to how far we go.
Given the high degree of bearishness and the very small amount of bullishness, I would at this time mention the next level as a possible even higher target. That would be S&P 1320. That number can not be ruled out and will be the next major area of resistance if the 1250 number gets taken out and I expect it, but that is my opinion only.
In today’s trading, I took two trades, as that was all I needed to hit my daily goal. No struggle, just taking the method trades as they came. The chart of day is below.
The day was a bit choppy early on, but with some OK moves available as marked. I would not say I would take all the trades marked, as some are better than others, but like to do this daily exercise to show you how things do line up and how the indicators can lend some insight into the next moves. Understanding the method behind the signals is the key, because it will give you the confidence to actually take action with your greater understanding.
This action happens every day the markets are open and today by no means is anything special. You can look back at weeks, months and longer and see it is all the same. Acting on the information with a high understanding of what you are doing, is again key. Knowledge is power and those who have the knowledge have the power.
Short post here today as I will continue with the lessons I started last week tomorrow, until then trade well, trade committed.
Today is Wednesday October 12th, 2011 and we saw another continuation of the powerful rally taking Wall Street by storm.
We added another 10 points on the S&P and another 100 points plus on the Dow. We did end off the highs by about 19 S&P points as the high of the day was 1216, a long way off the low of seven sessions ago.
I can say, that I really don’t think that we will be seeing the recent lows any time soon as the bears in this market are getting killed and expect more of the same over the weeks to come. Again, a very unpopular opinion right now as many overnight traders have been praying for a pull back so they can get out, but as mentioned yesterday, this is not one of those markets that you could expect normal, as we are currently far from that.
We may see some pull back any time here, but expect it to be short lived, as the power is to the upside. In the face of all that terrible news two weeks ago, many bought into it. Doing so, only sets traders up for big losses. You can not look at the obvious as the money is made in the unconventional thinking and wisdom.
In today’s trading I only took one trade for solid gains of plus +1.50 points/ 2.75 points/ and 6 points on the high of the last trade in the S&P emini’s. The trade below with other signals before and after.
Today, timing was perfect with only two ticks of heat after the trade. That is one way I measure myself, in seeing how much heat I take on after the trade. It is a balancing act, as being early has its benefits, but waiting and coming in after or with solid confirmation also has its own set of benefits.
Let me pick up where I left off in giving some commentary from the last post and training. If you want to get the background of what I was saying, go the post before this and scroll down the page to the last half and I will pick it up from there.
To find and make a living from day trading or position trading, it is not easy. Common people with a desire of having gold and diamonds, will not easily find it in the earth if they go on a search for them. If it was easily found, it would not be that special, but it is because of its rarity that increases its value.
The same here is true as traders, with few finding there way to profitability on a regular basis. The thing that gets in the way are two things. The trading method one uses, and the traders ability to get it done, no more, no less.
The next portion of that quote, states that if a person or trader for this illustration, will alter his thoughts, then he can change his destiny by the law of cause and effect. It is a powerful paragraph and says so much, one could write several pages just on that point.
James Allen, then quotes a law, “the law of absolute”, which states, that the one who knocks and seeks will find what he is looking for, as he persists in doing do so. That is my paraphrase and all very true.
If you seek, not just looking on the outside, which is necessary as you do need a solid trading method to build upon, but the seeing really needs to go within a trader, to examine why he does what he does and when. The discovery is there, as to the difficulties that face traders across the globe.
The power of the mind is not to be overlooked, but to the contrary, it needs to be harnessed. If you leave it up to chance, you will become a victim and part of some statistic.
You need to go beyond your natural reaction and instinct and look to the unconventional and less popular. It is hard to do the right thing when trading, but it is very easy to pull the trigger all at the wrong time. Again, this is a point to be sure you have. Doing the right thing, is hard to do and most will not or do not do it.
So, why is so hard to do the right thing? Why is it that most struggle? This is the big question and the solution is in the answer. Everyone has thoughts roaming around in there mind, some are good and some not so. One trader may be faced with financial pressures and trading is his answer to those problems, but what he forgot to factor in is his foundation of thought, as the more you push for it, the less likely you will obtain it.
Trading for riches, with money in mind can cloud your judgment. Striving for the silver bullet that will make all your other issues go away, often times will only add to the problem. The reason, you are focusing on the problem and not relaxed to the point of making sound judgments. You may not really be in a position of taking on the risk, so that causes you to hold back when you should take a solid trade and then later take the less desirable trades that end up in losses as frustration sets in.
It is in our thinking and mental foundation that the changes need to be made. It is hard to give a one size fits all answer as everyone is different and comes to the trading arena with different baggage. Take out the trash and keep it simple. Relax your mind from outside pressures and just do what you know to be right.
The last part of that paragraph it states, that one needs to not give up and keep going as “he that seekith findith and to the one that knockith, the door will be open”.
A trader needs to seek in only two area’s. One to find something that works and that he can build upon. That can teach him how to read price action apart from indicators but those indicators will confirm what he already knows to be true. The next is to look within for the COURAGE to follow that method and the ability to block out all distractions and change his or her daily routine to the point that supports mental strength and concentration to get the end results.
Friday’s session;
Today’s session;
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